Tennis Tips - November 11 - November 17

[CzechPunter]

[Torque]

Daniil Medvedev to win ATP Tour Finals @ 6.00 General

It's ten years now since Davydenko was an unexpected winner of the Tour Finals and as much as that has nothing to do with events this year, I can't help but see the parallels between Davydenko's game and that of Medvedev. Both were excellent servers, both were well suited to indoor conditions and both were capable of beating the best on their day and of course Davydenko had a few of those days ten years ago. As for Medvedev, he couldn't really be in better form coming into this. I'll forgive him the defeat to Chardy in Paris as I don't think he was particularly motivated, but he'll certainly be up for this. He's grouped with Nadal, Tsitsipas and Sascha and I think he finishes in the top two and progresses to the knock-out stages and that's before the possibility of Nadal withdrawing at some point like he did a couple of years ago. From there who knows, but there's nobody in the other group that he can't beat. I'd say he's got Djokovic's number and I'm certain the World No. 2 would like to avoid another meeting with him having come out the wrong side of a couple of meetings with him already this season, and I'm sure he'd fancy his chances against Federer given that the Swiss hasn't won here for a few years now and is in the twilight of his career. In short, based on the season to date I think Medvedev is a Grand Slam champion in-waiting and after Sascha won here last year I can't see why Medvedev can't follow in his footsteps. If Djokovic doesn't justify his status as favourite here - which happened last year - then I can see a Medvedev win.

Edited November 10, 2019 by Torque

[CzechPunter]

Daniil Medvedev (-2.5) to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 1.75 with Pinnacle

Alright, Djokovic managed to win 2-0 as predicted and I'm going to continue backing the favorites on Monday, with Medvedev being my pick of the day. @Torque has done a great job listing all the arguments, but what clinches it for me is the H2H and the fact that the Russian has had plenty of rest, which is something that he desperately needed.

[four-leaf]

 

Alexander Zverev to beat Rafa Nadal at 2.85 with Unibet

I think Rafa has gotten a bit overrated in this match. It's not all too unlikely that he will get beaten by Sascha in two.

[CzechPunter]

Well, that was certainly unexpected. Tomorrow, I'm backing Roger Federer (-4) to beat Matteo Berrettini at 1.93 with Pinnacle, same reasoning as for Djokovic-Berrettini. Federer now needs to win quite desperately - and Berrettini doesn't seem to be in the right form to challenge him.

[Crespo]

For the people on Betfair. There can be some money made because of some rain delays once again. The WTA and challenger  tournaments of Houston got suspended due to rain yesterday and will start tonight again, but on some matches there is quite a difference on where the odds were last night and where they are now. For example on the mens Brymer - Altamirano match. Altamirano was traded around 1,35 (maybe 1,4 max) when the match just stopped on Betfair and is at the lower 1,3x odds at most bookies now. However now on Betfair he sometimes can be backed in the 1,5x and I've even seen the 1,6x range. Considering the 'real' odds and his starting odds were lower than 1,3 and he;s only one break behind in the second set, I would say this is value. And things like this can also be seen on the other markets. I've seen Govortsova in the womens tournament seen trading at the 1,26-1,28 mark this morning, while the odds when the match was stopped were around 1,18-1,2. It may not look much but I guess every small things help.

 

 

Edited November 12, 2019 by Crespo

[CzechPunter]

Daniil Medvedev to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.70 with Pinnacle

So a push for Federer-Berrettini. Nadal really looked rather poor and I think that he just isn't fit physically, which is something that he needs to be considering his playing style. Medvedev looked better than him in the first round anyway and the US Open finals showed that he can certainly beat him.

[vvararu]

@CzechPunter @Crespo @four-leaf

Hey guys. What do you think about the chances of Thiem to upset Djokovic? Personally, I think his chances are minimal on this court/this tournament, taking in consideration that Djokovic is fully motivated. However, I'd be grateful for your opinions.

[CzechPunter]

Well, at the current odds, I'd rather be backing Thiem, but I wouldn't be too hopeful. The handicap line is spot on imo, no value there.

[CzechPunter]

Novak Djokovic (-3.5) to beat Roger Federer at 1.95 with Pinnacle

Dominic Thiem (-3.5) to beat Matteo Berrettini at 2.06 with Pinnacle

I left with Medvedev leading by two breaks in the decider - and then that happened . I am going to stay with the tournament regardless, however, and I'll be siding with both Djokovic and Thiem tomorrow. Matteo seems to have brought just his serve to the tournament, while Thiem has been great so far, while I didn't particularly enjoy Federer's performances to be honest. Too shambolic against Matteo yesterday - and Djokovic can't afford to just let the match go after his loss against Thiem.

[vvararu]

Zverev to beat Tsitsipas at 1.77 with Unibet.

Both of them come after first round wins and seem to be in shape. I think there will be a close game but the second year presence of Zverev on London courts (that fit Sascha's game according to his results) will should him a slight advantage.

Edited November 13, 2019 by vvararu

[CzechPunter]

By the way, is there anyone who feels that the new format of the Davis Cup is a great thing? Genuinely interested.

[Torque]

I think it'll be better than it was before. The old format took too long and the scheduling meant a lot of the time the top players weren't playing. Concentrating it so that it more resembles the tour finals should make for more interest and excitement, plus it should make it more likely that all the top players will play. I always thought it devalued the competition when top players pulled out and that happened a lot - I could understand the reasons in terms of scheduling and fatigue, but still it made for some borderline farcical ties for example the Swiss team the year after they won it were in the world group without being able to call on Federer or Wawrinka.

[CzechPunter]

Well, that's a nice argument, but how does it work in a world in which you've got the World Tour Finals this week and the Davis Cup next week at the end of a tiring season? We've got Djokovic, Nadal, Medvedev, and Berrettini all playing with no rest - or am I missing something?

[vvararu]

Berrettini +1.5 sets against Thiem at 1.83 Unibet.

Thiem is very good recently, no doubt. However, after a exhausting game against Djokovic, I think he will take this game easier. He will take it easier because he has already qualified for the semis and because he might want to rest a little bit. They have already played twice this year (1:1) and Berrettini took at least 1 set in both games. Italian has nothing to lose so he will play relaxed and I expect him to take 1 set.

Edited November 14, 2019 by vvararu

[CzechPunter]

That was a really bad call from me on Thiem, cheers to @vvararu!

[Torque]

17 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, that's a nice argument, but how does it work in a world in which you've got the World Tour Finals this week and the Davis Cup next week at the end of a tiring season? We've got Djokovic, Nadal, Medvedev, and Berrettini all playing with no rest - or am I missing something?

I still think the new format is better than the old. As you've pointed out it's not perfect, but I'd argue from the perspective of the players this is the lesser of two evils and I also believe fans will prefer it. The way it was before caused problems for a lot of players because of the time and travel demands it placed on them if they wanted to try for the title - stretched out across the year as it was made it a logistical nightmare. You only have to look at Federer and Wawrinka the year the Swiss team won to prove the point. Essentially they fully committed to one season of Davis Cup, even though it didn't fit in with the schedule they wanted to play that season and the proof of that came the following season when they made themselves unavailable. At least with the new format it's short and sweet and that's bound to appeal to players who, as you've said, are at the end of a long season. The idea of one last push across a short period of time must be more appealing than a long slog across the entire season. Anything at the end of the season could suffer due to player fatigue - the same criticism has been levelled at the tour finals - but ultimately it's up to the players to manage their workloads effectively and not having Davis Cup weekends dotted around the season should help to minimise accumulated fatigue, not to mention that all players are used to playing in consecutive weeks.

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, you're definitely right about certain things. I would like it to be a success, of course, but I just don't see it being one.

[Torque]

Just now, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, you're definitely right about certain things. I would like it to be a success, of course, but I just don't see it being one.

You could be right - it might not be a success but I think it's worth trying to change it. For me the old format was a bit a damp squib and just seemed not to fit in with the realities of being a tennis player - it's an individual sport ultimately and players will always take decisions that are in their best interests whether that's in the interests of Davis Cup or not. Of course that'll still be the case with this new format, but at least there should be more of a chance of each country's best players making themselves available. Also, it should be a more exciting spectacle compared to how it was before. It's hard to drum up enthusiasm and interest in a tournament when there are months between rounds - this way it should be possible for momentum to build up hopefully to a crescendo for the final. Who knows whether that will happen or not, but if this new format is anything like the tour finals I think it'll be a good thing.

[CzechPunter]

Well, yeah, but some countries are going to be robbed of a nice tennis event, especially those countries that aren't exactly filled with regular tournaments. The Czechs, for example, have been doing quite well for a while in the Davis Cup, always filling the event hall - and there are no main-level ATP tournaments in the country.

[Torque]

9 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, yeah, but some countries are going to be robbed of a nice tennis event, especially those countries that aren't exactly filled with regular tournaments. The Czechs, for example, have been doing quite well for a while in the Davis Cup, always filling the event hall - and there are no main-level ATP tournaments in the country.

That's a good point. I hadn't thought of that and I agree it's a definite downside in terms of promoting the game in countries that are starved of ATP tournaments. I'm sure that's in the thoughts of the administrators of the sport though, and you'd like to think some sort of solution to that problem can be found.

[CzechPunter]

Looking at today, I think that I'm just going to conserve the profits and see if there's anything interesting next week. If so, I'm going to have a couple of punts. If not, you can still expect a full season review from me - as always.

[Robinnho]

Taking the more motivated Nadal -2.5 vs Tsitsipas who has already qualified for the SF.  Nadal has to win to have any chance of playing the SF depending on the outcome of the last round-robin match. Tsitsipas should not be exerting himself too much in this match to reserve his energy for the SF.

?

  

[Robinnho]

Tsitsipas has made a great challenge and exhausted himself but NADAL has showed why he is the current #1 in the world by defeating him 6-7, 6-4, 7-5.  Therefore I will take TSITSIPAS to loose in the SF against FEDERER or THIEM - depending on the last R-R match - who is more rested;

[lelit]

I think Medvedev's psychic collapse in last match against Nadal; morbid mocking gestures to the trainer and wife, are not a good reason to bet on Zverev?

He's simply mentally devastated. And now he lost his chances for a semi-final through Nadal's victory.

Edited November 15, 2019 by lelit

[CzechPunter]

The logic is sound and I'd definitely rather be on Zverev than on Medvedev.

[vvararu]

It might be just a false speculation but 1) the fact that Medvedev and Zverev are both Russians, 2) Medvedev has the chance to stop his “best friend” Nadal, to whom he lost at least twice this year 3) Medvedev is not very stable currently, I think there is a big chance that Medvedev will not “try his best” to win tonight.

Zverev at 1.78 Unibet

Edited November 15, 2019 by vvararu

[Torque]

It's a shame Medvedev flunked so badly this week - and not just because I was on him outright. He's had a great season but casual followers of the sport would've wondered what all the fuss was about after his two losses so far. The Tsitsipas loss was fair enough, although a surprise as Medvedev had dominated the h2h, but the Nadal loss was very poor. It's one thing to be overhauled by one of the best players to ever play the game, but it's quite another in my eyes to do it the way he did. His body language and attitude were terrible when things went wrong during the match - particularly in the last set obviously - and played completely into Nadal's hands and it's not as though he needs extra help. I thought he'd largely left the whining and the histrionics and gesticulations to his box that make him look like a spoilt child behind him, and to bring that side of his game that is clearly still there to the surface on one of the most visible stages is hopefully something he'll be disappointed about and look to change for next season.

He could do much worse than look to Nadal as a role model, as I cannot ever remember seeing him muttering to his box and giving the impression that he was blaming them for losing which is what Medvedev was doing against Nadal. As for this evening, it'll be interesting to see what kind of reaction he gives - hopefully he reacts in a good way and shows the best of himself. If you scratch the last two matches and look back on the season I actually think the value is on Medvedev here, as he should be motivated to make up for the Nadal performance plus there is a financial incentive which he's openly said is a reason he plays the game.

[vvararu]

And here goes a friendly present from Medvedev to Zverev. In that situation, them both being in good relations, it would be strange if both of them went home. Now... Nadal goes home. Life is just not correct sometimes. Nadal really gave it all this week.

[delfino]

Federer was fantastic against Djokovic.  One of his best performances ever! And  yes at the age of 38 continues to play like the Titan of tennis!

Tsitsipas in great shape as well, but in my humble opinion he is lucking time to fully recover from his yesterday long and hard match against Nadal.

Federer to beat Tsitsipas 2-0 @1.83 offered by bet365 must bet!  

Also great Thiem to smash unreliable Zverev @ 1.66 offered by bet 365 another must bet!

Good luck punters!