check this btts & win strategy

[Rey86]

we pick 2 strong winning teams and we bet both of them to win and conced a goal

we look for odds 3,1+ in each team and we bet 1 unit and we expect to win 10 units back

if we lose we bet 2 units and we expect 20 back

etc

we keep this up until 9 units,when the total bet would be 45 units and if the 9 units bet win will get 90 units back minus the 45 we hae spent

45 units profit

 

 

never tried this before but i think i ll give it a try soon

[harry_rag]

What could possibly go wrong! 

I'd say you'd do better just staking 5 units on every bet (45 divided by 9). There can be reasons to stake 9 times as much on one bet as you would on another but where they randomly fall in a sequence is not one of them.

[Rey86]

no

by staking 5 unnits each time you minimizing the bets and the chances to win and the profits

[liero1]

6 hours ago, Rey86 said:

we pick 2 strong winning teams and we bet both of them to win and conced a goal

we look for odds 3,1+ in each team and we bet 1 unit and we expect to win 10 units back

if we lose we bet 2 units and we expect 20 back

etc

we keep this up until 9 units,when the total bet would be 45 units and if the 9 units bet win will get 90 units back minus the 45 we hae spent

45 units profit

 

 

never tried this before but i think i ll give it a try soon

does not make ANY sense, please read more about martingale and how it will bust you in a foreseeable future. just friendly advice - do this and you will go bust soon. 

[Rey86]

3 minutes ago, liero1 said:

does not make ANY sense, please read more about martingale and how it will bust you in a foreseeable future. just friendly advice - do this and you will go bust soon. 

 

thanks for the reply man but i do not think you fully understand this plan

concider betting on,lets say,Barcelona and Juventus for btts and win

do not you think there will be profits?

[liero1]

3 minutes ago, Rey86 said:

 

thanks for the reply man but i do not think you fully understand this plan

concider betting on,lets say,Barcelona and Juventus for btts and win

do not you think there will be profits?

one time maybe yes maybe no. long term no, if you haven't looked at much more data and games.. don't know where to start explaining. maybe try to read more about odds and what probabilities they imply and how you get a higher hit rate than that probability implied...

[Rey86]

36 minutes ago, liero1 said:

one time maybe yes maybe no. long term no, if you haven't looked at much more data and games.. don't know where to start explaining. maybe try to read more about odds and what probabilities they imply and how you get a higher hit rate than that probability implied...

 

 

as i said you havent understand it fully

but thank for the reply

[thecurlyone1]

Better off dutching 2-1 3-1 on the exchange 

 

better odds than what you are going to get with win & btts 

Edited August 30, 2019 by thecurlyone1
Spelling

[thecurlyone1]

https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/betting-terminology/correct-score-betting-vs-ft-result-btts-combination-bet/

 

check out this interesting article from soccerwidows site @Rey86

Edited September 11, 2019 by thecurlyone1
spelling

[Zico10]

Cheers for the article thecurlyone1. I had a bit of success on win btts accas last season. I might cover correct score combos this season! 

[Rey86]

On 9/11/2019 at 11:17 AM, thecurlyone1 said:

https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/betting-terminology/correct-score-betting-vs-ft-result-btts-combination-bet/

 

check out this interesting article from soccerwidows site @Rey86

 

 

is there a similar statistic for btts & over 2.5 versus over 2.5 ?

[Rey86]

On 8/29/2019 at 4:53 PM, Rey86 said:

 

thanks for the reply man but i do not think you fully understand this plan

concider betting on,lets say,Barcelona and Juventus for btts and win

do not you think there will be profits?

for the record,if someone tried this strategy with the given team,he would have made profits on the third week

if we assue that the odds were 2.5 then the double gave us 6.25,our stake on the third week would be 15 units and the total amount of stakes we used would be 30

so

(6.75 x 15) - 30 = 63,75 units profits

 

 

[harry_rag]

 That proves that then! Obviously one example, win or lose, proves nothing about the value of a given strategy but your example is dubious to say the least! If you really want to illustrate that this might work, post real selections, with actual odds, in advance (no need to put real money down but at least they are bets that could be followed).

A few observations:

• Only now are you stipulating only backing the teams at home; you never mentioned this before.
• You started out with "odds of 3.1 + each team" but are now assuming odds of 2.5. 
• One of your "doubles" involves matches that were 13 days apart!
• Your start date seems to have been 24th September even though the thread dates back to August; you can't pick and choose matches just to support your desired outcome.
• How is the stake 15 units in week 3 if it was going to be 1 in week 1 then 2 in week 2?

I still don't believe this strategy will deliver long term profits but it would be interesting to see a genuine attempt to demonstrate it's merits with "live" examples. Please don't waste our time with back-fitted results chosen just because they suit you.

[Rey86]

36 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

...

 

 

you have been disrespectful towards me in the past

so you re in my ignore list

[harry_rag]

Hmm, piqued my own curiosity now and started looking at some other "strong winning teams". Looking at the top teams in the major leagues we have Liverpool, Celtic, Barca and Juve who have all won their first 6 home games and Benfica and PSG with 5 wins and a defeat. I've considered all the permutations of doubling those teams up, first home game to first home game, second to second etc.

Both Benfica and PSG have only conceded in their defeat so have won all their other games to nil. That means that doubling them with each other and the remaining 4 teams gives us 9 pairings where we'd have 6 straight losses and be onto 7 points stake next time out.

Liverpool have won all 6 of their games to nil. These are the sequences if we'd doubled them with the other teams (apart from Benfica and PSG)

Celtic - L-W-W-L-L-L - Next stake 4 points, winners with 1 point and 2 points staked

Barcelona - W-W-W-L-W-W - Next stake 1 point, winners with 1 point (x4) and 2 points staked

Juventus - W-W-L-W-W-L - Next stake 2 points, winners with 1 point (x3) and 2 points staked

Celtic have won 2 of their games to nil and align as follows with Barca and Juve:

Barca - L-W-W-L-L-L - Next stake 4 points, winners with 1 point and 2 points staked

Juve - L-W-L-L-L-L - Next stake 5 points, winner with 2 points staked

And finally, Barca and Juve - W-W-L-L-W-L - Next stake 2 points, winners with 1 point (x2) and 3 points staked.

By my reckoning, as there's only a single win so far with 3 points staked, a level stakes approach would have outperformed the staking plan but that would all change if a double involving Benfica or PSG were to land before we hit 9 losers. Anything better than 2.3 per selection (5.29 per double) would see you in front to level stakes.

Let's see how that all looks after 9 games each! 

 

[harry_rag]

30 minutes ago, Rey86 said:

 

 

you have been disrespectful towards me in the past

so you re in my ignore list

Fair enough, your choice and I apologise for any offence. Personally I don't think anything I said went beyond fair comment in terms of open debate on a betting forum and I hope no-one else found my comments disrespectful.

Ironically, I now find myself sufficiently interested in the subject to have done a bit more digging so I'll probably add periodic updates to the thread.

[Rey86]

fair enough 

lets be friends and make profits together

 

you re rights,the hypothetical profits suppose to be euros not units

never tried this approach cos i lack the patience and bankroll to support it

 

i just heard it  in the past and shared it

[harry_rag]

Ok, let's track this going forward using the 6 teams I mentioned. It's not my usual bag but I'm curious enough to see how profitable or otherwise the approach is and whether level stakes out-performs the staking plan mentioned. I'll track it from this point forward but will update how the outstanding sequences would have panned out. Only Celtic and PSG are at home this week but there are odds available for all the other teams bar Barcelona who have a couple of away games coming up. I'll record it to best Oddschecker odds even though it won't always be possible to do the double in that way.

PSG 2.75 v Lille

Celtic 3.6 v Livingston

Liverpool 3.0 v Brighton

Benfica 3.2 v Maritimo

Juventus 2.9 v Sassuolo

Barcelona TBC v Mallorca

Will track 15 x 1 point doubles (as per "double up" staking approach in opening post), 5 point doubles (flat staking approach) and 12.5 point singles (flat staking approach to compare against doubles).

 

 

[Zico10]

I'll watch this myself harry. Cheers

[harry_rag]

Two losing games this weekend with PSG and Celtic both winning to nil.

That takes down 9 doubles and 2 singles this week. Full update to follow when all games complete.

It does throw up a clear distinction between teams that tend to win to nil more often as opposed to those who tend to win but concede. PSG now 7 home games without a win where their opponents scored.

[harry_rag]

On 11/21/2019 at 5:57 PM, harry_rag said:

Ok, let's track this going forward using the 6 teams I mentioned. It's not my usual bag but I'm curious enough to see how profitable or otherwise the approach is and whether level stakes out-performs the staking plan mentioned. I'll track it from this point forward but will update how the outstanding sequences would have panned out. Only Celtic and PSG are at home this week but there are odds available for all the other teams bar Barcelona who have a couple of away games coming up. I'll record it to best Oddschecker odds even though it won't always be possible to do the double in that way.

PSG 2.75 v Lille 2-0 (Lost)

Celtic 3.6 v Livingston 4-0 (Lost)

Liverpool 3.0 v Brighton 2-1 (Won)

Benfica 3.2 v Maritimo 4-0 (Lost)

Juventus 2.9 v Sassuolo 2-2 (Lost)

Barcelona TBC v Mallorca Plays 7/12, priced up at 2.75

Will track 15 x 1 point doubles (as per "double up" staking approach in opening post), 5 point doubles (flat staking approach) and 12.5 point singles (flat staking approach to compare against doubles).

 

 

Only Liverpool win so the Liverpool v Barca double is still live but the remaining 14 doubles all lost.

-14 points from the 1 point bets, -70 from the 5 point bets, 1 double still to be settled.

-25 points from the 12.5 point singles (the Liverpool win and 4 losers) with Barca still to be settled.

[harry_rag]

Here's the odds for the next set of games, which start tonight in England, Scotland and France. This makes things a bit messy with Barca still to play their first game! This illustrates a practical issue with this concept, which may be exacerbated by upcoming winter breaks; teams don't necessarily play their games in a conveniently synchronised way. It might be, if you were doing this for real, that you had to add a criteria where you backed the teams in a double where they both had a home game scheduled in the same week. Regardless, I'll persist and see how it all pans out.

Celtic 3.25 v Hamilton

Liverpool 2.9 v Everton

PSG 3 v Nantes

Juventus 3.4 v Udinese

Benfica TBC v Famalicao

Barcelona TBC v R Madird

The usual 5 point doubles and 12.5 point singles for flat stakes purposes. Stake increases to 2 point doubles for the purposes of the strategy, except for Liverpool/Barca where we won't know if it's 1 or 2 points until after Barca play Mallorca on Saturday! 

 

Edited December 4, 2019 by harry_rag
Added "Scotland" to opening sentence.

[harry_rag]

Midweek update sees wins for Celtic and Liverpool and a loss for PSG who won to nil.

The winning double returns 9.425 x stake, 5 doubles go down due to PSG losing, the rest remain live.

Barca's game at the weekend is part of the previous round of bets rather than this one! 

[harry_rag]

Only other result is Barca winning 5-2 which was the final game from the first round of fixtures.

Champions League midweek so I should have plenty of time to get my head round where this is up to and do an update!

[harry_rag]

On 11/21/2019 at 5:57 PM, harry_rag said:

Ok, let's track this going forward using the 6 teams I mentioned. It's not my usual bag but I'm curious enough to see how profitable or otherwise the approach is and whether level stakes out-performs the staking plan mentioned. I'll track it from this point forward but will update how the outstanding sequences would have panned out. Only Celtic and PSG are at home this week but there are odds available for all the other teams bar Barcelona who have a couple of away games coming up. I'll record it to best Oddschecker odds even though it won't always be possible to do the double in that way.

PSG 2.75 v Lille

Celtic 3.6 v Livingston

Liverpool 3.0 v Brighton

Benfica 3.2 v Maritimo

Juventus 2.9 v Sassuolo

Barcelona 2.75 v Mallorca

Will track 15 x 1 point doubles (as per "double up" staking approach in opening post), 5 point doubles (flat staking approach) and 12.5 point singles (flat staking approach to compare against doubles).

 

 

Week 1 finished with the Barca bet winning in addition to Liverpool so just 2 singles and the 1 double.

15 x 1 point doubles returned 8.25 points for a loss of 6.75 points

15 x 5 point doubles returned 41.25 points for a loss of 33.75 points

6 x 12.5 point singles returned 71.88 points for a loss of 3.13 points

Week 2 update to follow.

[harry_rag]

On 12/4/2019 at 12:54 PM, harry_rag said:

Here's the odds for the next set of games, which start tonight in England, Scotland and France. This makes things a bit messy with Barca still to play their first game! This illustrates a practical issue with this concept, which may be exacerbated by upcoming winter breaks; teams don't necessarily play their games in a conveniently synchronised way. It might be, if you were doing this for real, that you had to add a criteria where you backed the teams in a double where they both had a home game scheduled in the same week. Regardless, I'll persist and see how it all pans out.

Celtic 3.25 v Hamilton 2-1 (Won)

Liverpool 2.9 v Everton 5-2 (Won)

PSG 3 v Nantes 2-0 (Lost)

Juventus 3.4 v Udinese

Benfica 2.45 v Famalicao

Barcelona 3.0 v R Madird

The usual 5 point doubles and 12.5 point singles for flat stakes purposes. Stake increases to 2 point doubles for the purposes of the strategy, except for Liverpool/Barca which reverts to a 1 point double as it won in week 1.

 

Continues at the weekend with 5 doubles lost,1 won 9 still live. 1 single lost, 2 won and 3 live. Last game (Barca) is next Wednesday but, I'm delighted to report, the next set of fixtures get underway at the weekend! 

[harry_rag]

Ok, here's week 3 fixtures with known odds and staking.

Liverpool 2.65 v Watford 14/12

Celtic 2.6 v Hibs 15/12

PSG 2.75 v Amiens 21/12

Barcelona 2.68 v Alaves 21/12

Juventus TBC v Cagliari 6/1

Benfica TBC v Desp Aves 11/1

The usual 5 point doubles and 12.5 point singles for flat stakes purposes. Too many games left in week 2 to confirm the variable stakes for now. Winter breaks are going to wreak even more havoc with this, making the whole thing highly hypothetical (staking the doubles retrospectively etc.). If doing this in reality you'd have to look at a week's fixtures and pick out the qualifying bets available. I'm close to chucking it in but I'll continue with the updates until it becomes more than I can bear!

If I update in a week after the next Barca game that should see week 2 complete and 2 games into week 3, with the stakes known.

[harry_rag]

Final tally for week 2. A profitable "week" as we found 3 winners although I'm not sure we could have bet them correctly without a time machine!

Celtic 3.25 v Hamilton 2-1 (Won)

Liverpool 2.9 v Everton 5-2 (Won)

PSG 3 v Nantes 2-0 (Lost)

Juventus 3.4 v Udinese 3-1 (Won)

Benfica 2.45 v Famalicao 4-0 (Lost)

Barcelona 3.0 v R Madird 0-0 (Lost)

The usual 5 point doubles and 12.5 point singles for flat stakes purposes. Stake increases to 2 point doubles for the purposes of the strategy, except for Liverpool/Barca which reverts to a 1 point double as it won in week 1.

75 points staked on the singles returns 119.38 (+44.38)

75 points staked on the flat staked doubles returns 151.68 (+76.68)

29 points staked on the variable staked doubles returns 60.67 (+31.67)

Nothing too surprising there; if we find 3 winners from 6 we make a reasonable profit on the singles. Doubles multiply our edge so we get a better return. Variable stakes returns a smaller profit because we haven't hit any larger staked winners yet. Personally I still think flat stakes trump variable for the doubles as, with the latter, you just end up hoping for a losing run so you hit a "big" winner. It introduces an element of blind luck in terms of when the winners fall. Fine if you're doing it for fun but not the strategy a more serious punter would choose.

[harry_rag]

On 12/12/2019 at 3:11 PM, harry_rag said:

Ok, here's week 3 fixtures with known odds and staking.

Liverpool 2.65 v Watford 14/12 2-0 (lost)

Celtic 2.6 v Hibs 15/12 2-0 (lost)

PSG 2.75 v Amiens 21/12

Barcelona 2.68 v Alaves 21/12

Juventus 2.78 v Cagliari 6/1

Benfica TBC v Desp Aves 11/1

The usual 5 point doubles and 12.5 point singles for flat stakes purposes. Too many games left in week 2 to confirm the variable stakes for now. Winter breaks are going to wreak even more havoc with this, making the whole thing highly hypothetical (staking the doubles retrospectively etc.). If doing this in reality you'd have to look at a week's fixtures and pick out the qualifying bets available. I'm close to chucking it in but I'll continue with the updates until it becomes more than I can bear!

If I update in a week after the next Barca game that should see week 2 complete and 2 games into week 3, with the stakes known.

Updated with results (2 losers) and odds for Juve. Variable stakes will be 3 points for all doubles except for Liverpool/Barca (2) and the 3 doubles involving Celtic, Liverpool and Juve which landed last week (1). PSG and Barca play at the weekend.

[harry_rag]

Mini update after the weekend. Barca and PSG both won 4-1 so that's a double landed in "week 3" with 2 games to come. Also, Celtic sneakily got "week 4" underway with a 2-1 win against Aberdeen at odds of 3.25. 2 more games to come in 2019, Liverpool's week 4 game against Wolves at 2.91 and Celtic romping into week 5 with a game against Rangers at 4.0.

Next update after those games when I'll do a sense check to see if I can continue this without any threat to my sanity!