liero1

Restricted Members
  • Content count

    84
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  1. Betfair data - Fracsoft?

    you will have to invest in a developer for this..
  2. dude, one simple formula to calculate the probability of a win or losing streak: (1/P)^a P - your loss probability, a- your number of bets lost (streak). No idea what your odds are, let's say 3? Look at this table, it is really eye opening - (copyright soccerwidow) - so think about how long you want to stay in the betting game... with odds of 3 you will hit 10 losses in a row every 35 bets statistically..
  3. It’s fascinating people still think staking can define the outcome of a system. If your system is NOT profitable on simple flat stakes (say 1 u) then martingale won’t change it.
  4. And another 0-0.. you still going with this?
  5. Hi, can someone help how to calculate my z score for my back testing results? Or if it is even helpful? Just looking to expand my repertoire of key performance indicators when looking at back test results for different systems.. So far I am doing p value, r squared test for expanding the system criteria, max. draw down... and the general p&l graph of course over time.. Thanks!!
  6. Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method

    Hi. So what’s profit and loss? What’s odds you taking? Cheers
  7. Lay The Draw CgmBet Selections

    Sure. Well if you got your bet list liability is just odds x stake - stake. Add it all up and then profit / liability is your yield. I think it is massively important. In the end you could be walking away with a 0.05% yield thinking it’s fantastic. Or you have a really good one and could have been increasing stakes already.
  8. A or B

    you add up the probabilities, that's it
  9. A or B

    1 / decimal odds = probability
  10. Excel filtering soccer stats

    wow, did you create this whole thing? it's a monster, but a pretty one Any chance for any historic data in there?
  11. Lay The Draw CgmBet Selections

    well 80.50 profit over which sum of liability? it feels like you might be around 5-10% which would still be amazing!
  12. yea certainly! All the best hope this works out and if it does you share your wisdom how to get involved haha And yes, my data was pure averages for the full year and the full league.. Just an indicator
  13. No problem. If you have the probability for 0-0, say 10%, the odds are just 1 / probability, so its 1/ 0.1 = 10. Now, if you lay you need odds below 10, if you back you want odds above 10 to make this work for that probability.
  14. All I can contribute is a warning lol You surely looked at the 0-0 probabilities and odds you need, right? I just had a quick scan over my database, here are the 0-0 score probabilities and aligned odds for some major leagues and from the last 5 years - If you stick to your 8.0 you are likely to succeed if you get matched but anything above those average odds you are in danger zone mate: League Games Prob. Odds B1 1320 6.89% 14.51 2013 168 5.36% 18.67 2014 239 7.11% 14.06 2015 241 6.64% 15.06 2016 239 6.69% 14.94 2017 240 7.92% 12.63 2018 193 7.25% 13.79 D1 1629 6.88% 14.54 2013 152 3.29% 30.40 2014 307 7.17% 13.95 2015 306 8.50% 11.77 2016 297 7.41% 13.50 2017 315 5.71% 17.50 2018 252 7.54% 13.26 D2 1647 8.44% 11.85 2013 171 10.53% 9.50 2014 306 9.80% 10.20 2015 306 9.48% 10.55 2016 288 7.64% 13.09 2017 315 4.76% 21.00 2018 261 9.58% 10.44 E1 2964 8.13% 12.30 2013 275 8.36% 11.96 2014 565 7.79% 12.84 2015 551 9.07% 11.02 2016 551 8.17% 12.24 2017 566 7.42% 13.48 2018 456 8.11% 12.32 E2 2962 7.66% 13.05 2013 276 4.35% 23.00 2014 548 8.94% 11.18 2015 560 5.54% 18.06 2016 559 8.59% 11.65 2017 561 8.56% 11.69 2018 458 8.52% 11.74 E3 2963 7.96% 12.56 2013 275 8.36% 11.96 2014 553 9.40% 10.63 2015 556 7.73% 12.93 2016 547 7.13% 14.03 2017 575 7.48% 13.37 2018 457 7.88% 12.69 F1 2030 7.93% 12.61 2013 189 8.47% 11.81 2014 380 7.63% 13.10 2015 381 9.97% 10.03 2016 378 8.73% 11.45 2017 382 5.76% 17.36 2018 320 7.19% 13.91 F2 2040 10.10% 9.90 2013 180 9.44% 10.59 2014 380 8.42% 11.88 2015 390 12.31% 8.13 2016 380 13.95% 7.17 2017 379 8.18% 12.23 2018 331 7.55% 13.24 G1 1412 10.27% 9.74 2013 153 7.84% 12.75 2014 288 9.38% 10.67 2015 291 9.97% 10.03 2016 216 14.35% 6.97 2017 264 9.85% 10.15 2018 200 10.00% 10.00 I1 2020 6.78% 14.74 2013 170 5.88% 17.00 2014 370 7.57% 13.21 2015 389 5.91% 16.91 2016 389 9.00% 11.11 2017 390 5.64% 17.73 2018 312 6.09% 16.42 I2 2416 10.51% 9.51 2013 229 9.17% 10.90 2014 464 9.27% 10.79 2015 461 12.36% 8.09 2016 463 11.02% 9.08 2017 462 11.26% 8.88 2018 337 8.90% 11.23 N1 1637 4.09% 24.43 2013 162 4.94% 20.25 2014 297 3.37% 29.70 2015 306 5.23% 19.13 2016 306 5.56% 18.00 2017 313 2.24% 44.71 2018 253 3.56% 28.11 P1 1554 7.92% 12.63 2013 112 8.04% 12.44 2014 254 8.66% 11.55 2015 306 8.50% 11.77 2016 315 6.35% 15.75 2017 307 9.45% 10.59 2018 260 6.54% 15.29 SC0 1140 6.05% 16.52 2013 111 8.11% 12.33 2014 225 3.56% 28.13 2015 240 4.58% 21.82 2016 232 8.19% 12.21 2017 234 5.98% 16.71 2018 98 8.16% 12.25 SC1 900 6.67% 15.00 2013 89 7.87% 12.71 2014 181 4.97% 20.11 2015 181 3.87% 25.86 2016 182 8.79% 11.38 2017 176 7.39% 13.54 2018 91 8.79% 11.38 SP1 2000 7.55% 13.25 2013 170 6.47% 15.45 2014 369 10.03% 9.97 2015 390 7.44% 13.45 2016 370 6.49% 15.42 2017 390 6.92% 14.44 2018 311 7.40% 13.52 SP2 2431 10.57% 9.46 2013 209 10.05% 9.95 2014 451 12.20% 8.20 2015 462 11.26% 8.88 2016 472 9.53% 10.49 2017 473 10.78% 9.27 2018 364 9.07% 11.03 T1 1332 8.18% 12.22 2013 152 10.53% 9.50 2014 154 12.99% 7.70 2015 153 6.54% 15.30 2016 297 9.09% 11.00 2017 315 5.71% 17.50 2018 261 6.90% 14.50
  15. I am sure it depends what strategies you do. E.g. if you do high frequency, loads of bets per day then 5-7% is almost too good to be true. if you do only a few bets a week then it's probably not as good..?!