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liero1

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About liero1

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  1. Nice one. So what’s are the odds offered though
  2. thanks much appreciated. just curious because I did test something similar (wanted to message you but god knows how that works). Although I did more of an overall performance indicator, taking an average price into account - thinking about your approach, don't you find that mostly for most players you only get a few matches per odds price? e.g. a player might have been priced at 2.5 three times his career but that is way too low of a statistical number to tell us anything no matter if he won 0 or 3 of those..?
  3. Ok cool. So you have one big accumulated performance indicator or so you base it on a certain number of more recent games .. don’t totally get it sorry haha!! can I also ask why u don’t take sp when I think it’s value already. I would just think a 49 ticks is massive and if they go that high they are obv likely to lose? Your results are amazing though so far
  4. Hi. Interesting, so you analysed a players performance versus it’s odds? How many games do you take into account, I assume it’s hard to get both a large enough number to have a clear over/under perform indication and have the data set rather recent so it’s not based on the 90s or something..? Will definitely follow cheers
  5. just do your own? get a software that supports it. like betangel and create bots, it is very easy.
  6. do you back on bookies? If so, they will restrict you quickly
  7. 1k stake.. you know what kind of bank size you would need to do this safely? ... well you never know you might be a millionaire looking for fun
  8. What is your problem with this - the max drawdown? You cant change that by your staking strategy.. Just stick to a plan and develop your staking with that knowledge about your max DD. Something like bank size = 3x max DD The graph looks amazing by the way..
  9. Not sure what that is? I would just take the Yield, the number of bets and depending on stake strategy you see where you end up?
  10. you will have to invest in a developer for this..
  11. dude, one simple formula to calculate the probability of a win or losing streak: (1/P)^a P - your loss probability, a- your number of bets lost (streak). No idea what your odds are, let's say 3? Look at this table, it is really eye opening - (copyright soccerwidow) - so think about how long you want to stay in the betting game... with odds of 3 you will hit 10 losses in a row every 35 bets statistically..
  12. It’s fascinating people still think staking can define the outcome of a system. If your system is NOT profitable on simple flat stakes (say 1 u) then martingale won’t change it.
  13. Hi, can someone help how to calculate my z score for my back testing results? Or if it is even helpful? Just looking to expand my repertoire of key performance indicators when looking at back test results for different systems.. So far I am doing p value, r squared test for expanding the system criteria, max. draw down... and the general p&l graph of course over time.. Thanks!!