harry_rag Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 12/22/2019 at 3:40 PM, harry_rag said: Next update after those games when I'll do a sense check to see if I can continue this without any threat to my sanity! I can't, I admit defeat, what with Benfica still to play their week 3 game while Celtic and Liverpool are already into week 6! I've got better things to do with my time, bettingwise and real lifewise! Some concluding thoughts for those of you avidly following my ramblings. Would these bets bets be profitable if backing singles? - Well, I make it that the 6 teams have played 57 home games this season and the bet would have landed in 26 of them, that's 45.61% implying "true" odds of 2.19. So on the basis that we seem to be getting better odds than that, it looks like it would have yielded a profit so far. I'd ditch Benfica (0 from 8 so far) and PSG (1 from 9) and Celtic are underwhelming (4 from 11) but Liverpool (8 from 11), Barca (7 from 9) and Juve (6 from 9) combine for 21 from 29 or 72.4%. You'd have obviously coined it backing those 3 teams till now but you know what they say about past performance being no guarantee... Would there have been any mileage in backing them in doubles? - Well, where there's a positive edge you multiply by backing doubles so let's assume so. I make it 22 winning doubles from a potential 135 if we'd backed them all. At assumed average odds of 2/1 we'd have got 198 points back for a 63 point profit. Would the staking plan mentioned in the opening post have outperformed level stakes? - I believe not. With Benfica still to play one more game, I've looked at the first 9 games for all the teams. The 22 winning doubles would have had the following stakes on them, 1 point x 12, 2 x 5, 5 x 1, 6 x 1 and 9 x 1. Should Benfica oblige at the 9th attempt that would add 2 more 9 point winners. So a maximum of 5 doubles with more than 2 points staked. The best double was Liverpool and Barca which landed 6 times. With the 2/1 odds assumption, that would have returned +255 points to level stakes but just +59 to the staking plan. Celtic and Juve obliged twice, once with 6 points on, and the return was +55 points from both staking approaches. PSG and Barca would have finally landed with 9 points staked beating level stakes by 45 points to 5. So the most likely outcome is that level stakes will convincingly outperform increasing ones. I can't see any reason to assume it's worth hoping you get 8 losers and land your winner on the 9th bet and let that dictate your staking plan. So there may be teams who will show a profit if backed at home to win/btts and Liverpool, Barca and Juve are worth putting on the shortlist. Back them in singles, maybe in doubles. But I can't recommend an increasing, loss recovery style approach to the staking. Phew, glad that's finally over! Rey86 and Bedlam 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 5:19 PM, harry_rag said: I'd ditch Benfica (0 from 8 so far) and PSG (1 from 9) and Celtic are underwhelming (4 from 11) but Liverpool (8 from 11), Barca (7 from 9) and Juve (6 from 9) combine for 21 from 29 or 72.4%. You'd have obviously coined it backing those 3 teams till now but you know what they say about past performance being no guarantee... As the stars have aligned for those three teams all to be at home tomorrow, I couldn't resist sticking them in a trixie! 21/10, 13/8 and 15/8 with Betway. Rey86 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sterphyle Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 Good strategy, i have won some good amount of money this season betting on 1x2 & btts. Don't focus on strong winning team but rather focus on strong mid table team that can't keep a cleansheet. The best league to bet on according to me is bundesliga and serie A. Also the nature of the opponent matters alot Zico10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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