bookiebasher

Saturday was a case of so close yet so far. None of the teams lost their games and having caught up with what happened in the games I think only the Stockport match is the only one where the team we were on didn't deserve the 3 points. It continues the frustrating run of form though which is annoying. Boxing Day is always a busy day of football and I have 5 bets throughout the leagues.
Wrexham v Salford
The fact Aldershot's keeper got the man of the match award tells you all you need to know about their game with Wrexham as they couldn't get past him. Back at the Racecourse though I think they can pick up 3 points on Saturday and at the very least are value to do so. Only Leyton Orient have won there this season and even then it took two late goals to nick it. With Salford under performing at the moment this could be a good chance for them to go above them in the table. I was surprised they lost to Dagenham on Saturday and they probably didn't deserve to, but having gone a goal up they really should have put the game to bed. This will be a much tougher game for them and having lost two league games on the bounce it might just be the right time for Wrexham to be facing them. Betway go 2/1 about a home win and I would make Wrexham slight favs for this.
Havant & Waterlooville v Eastleigh
Big local derby this, but I fancy the away side to come out on top. Eastleigh's away form is much better than their away, but they managed to even win at home on Saturday when coming from behind to beat Harrogate 2-1 which was a very good result. Eastleigh had won 5 away games on the bounce prior to their 2-0 lose at Wrexham in their last league game away, but as pointed out above their is no disgrace in that. Now Havant have won 4 home league games on the bounce scoring 16 goals in the process, but they have played the bottom 3 sides and Halifax who have only won one away game all season. This is a huge step up in opposition compared to those 4 and they are suffering for injuries going into this game. They got a solid draw at Hartlepool on Saturday, but they suffered 3 injuries in the process. I think Eastleigh's price of 11/8 with William Hill and Betfred offers fair value.
Woking v Hampton & Richmond (National League South)
Not sure there is a great deal of value around at Step 2 on Boxing Day, but this match really sticks out for me as I really fancy the home side. Hampton surprised me when they beat Welling recently but hopefully we can get or money back here. They were well beaten by Torquay on Saturday and I still think they are a side who might get sucked into a relegation battle. Having faced the top team they now have to face the 2nd team in Woking who were superb on Saturday. Yes Billericay have lost a few players, but they still have a really strong side and Woking were really impressive in beating them 4-0. That had been their toughest test for a while in the league but they overcame it with ease and they are now unbeaten in 6 having won 5 of them. I think Woking should be at least 4/6 for this so the fact they are even money with Marathon surprises me and looks huge value.
Lancaster v Workington (Evo-Stik Northern Premier)
Lancaster started the season in really poor form, but they are working their way away from the relegation zone and they have lost just 3 in their last 10 league matches now. They very nearly beat South Shields on Saturday as well, but having scored in the 87th minute the away side levelled in the 90th. Workington have won just 3 games all season and just one of those have come in the last 10 games. Away from home they have picked up just 2 points all season and things won't have been helped by the fact both central defenders were sent off after the final whistle in the 3-2 defeat to Scarborough on Saturday. BetVictor's 7/5 about a home win looks well worth taking.
Stafford v Nantwich (Evo-Stik Northern Premier)
Nantwich are top of the table and although that is partly because they have played more games than some of those below them they have still lost just 3 league games this season and only one of those have been in the last 10 games. Their only away defeat of the season came against South Shields in their first away game of the season. Stafford had gone 6 home games without a win before beating Hednesford in their last home match, but that doesn't say much as they have only picked up 1 point in their 6 games and won just 1 of their last 10. I'm surprised that Nantwich aren't shorter than 7/5 (BetVictor) for this as they look by far the most likely winners.
Tonbridge Angels v Folkestone Invicta (Bostik Premier)
The away side look a huge price at 9/4 (Marathon and BetVictor). Angels started the season very strongly, but lately things have been mostly miserable. They have lost 5 out of their last 6 games and although they sit in 5th position they look anything but play-off contenders at the moment. They haven't played a league game since December 11th so they will be fresher given Folkestone played at the weekend, but on the other-hand they will be rusty having not played a league game for 2 weeks and given Invicta are in good form this is a very tough first game back. They have only lost to top of the table Haringey, who are really flying at the moment, in their last 6 games and they have won 4 of them. Granted their away form as they have lost 5 of their last 7 on the road, but they have a real chance here of picking up 3 points and I would have them shorter than 9/4.
Wrexham 1pt @ 2/1 with Betway
Eastleigh 2pts @ 11/8 with William Hill and Betfred
Woking 4pts @ Evs with Marathon
Lancaster 2pts @ 7/5 with BetVictor
Nantwich 2pts @ 7/5 with BetVictor
Folkestone 1pt @ 9/4 with Marathon and BetVictor 

Sorry don't have time, one word
ABERDEEN 

YEP...all over Edinburgh again mate...
 

A double for me today;
Airdrie v Arbroath
Arbroath look unbeatable this season in the league and should bag another 3 points here at around odds of 1.70.
Edinburgh v Elgin
This season has turned into groundhog day as once again our old friends Edinburgh at odds of 1.75 look good for another win here.
Arbroath and Edinburgh Double @ 2.98 looks good to me.

Lol...they got me as well...But at least we were on Edinburgh fella 

Lol...they got me as well...But at least we were on Edinburgh fella 

Just a word of caution on Norwich. 
Farke has confirmed today that Moritz Leitner and Onel Hernandez are both out injured.
Leitner has been Norwich’s most influential player this season, pulling all the strings and orchestrating play. If the season was to stop now, he would arguably be awarded Norwich’s player of the season.
Probably second most influential player is Hernandez. The Cuban has been a constant threat from the left wing this season, with his electric pace and trickery.
Big, big losses for tomorrow, and as mentioned in another post, Rotherham have been playing well recently, and were the better side against Sheffield United.
Another side story to the game is that of Millers boss Paul Warne. He is a Norfolk lad and Norwich fan, with all his family still living in the region. He has (understandably) been saying in the press all week how motivated he is for this game. 
I don’t really have any betting advice on this game though, and in my opinion Norwich are on the short side, in what is a typically competitive Championship. I just thought I would share some thoughts and injury news.

Cheers guys always good when things go as smoothly as they did tonight although Oxford made a late rally.

Lost in translation, English isn't his mother tongue. He means 11 goals conceded in 11 games 

I'm going to continue with a system I developed last year based on CBS Power Rankings, and selections for the Westgate, Las Vegas (was Hilton) Handicapping Contest. I know things haven't yet settled down, but I'm itching to start.
Week 1 pix are:
(all one point at ~ 10/11)
Balt -7.5
Pitt -3.5
Cincy +2
Minne -6.5
NO -10
Carol -2.5
Denver -3
Detroit -6.5
I'll be flipping between the golf and NFL tonight

Ah mate..I came home just before the 5pm games started and luckily missed the Wisconsin bet and managed to put in Michigan instead as their game hadnt started yet..With your other 3 picks that came in i actually managed a nice win at 9/1...So thanks mate and sorry about your bet bloody, Wisconsin eh..They battered them afterwards hey....Good luck today in the NFL mate..I havent finalised any bets yet for today..

I'm opposing you here, Steve. In my opinion the overwhelming value is with Spain, who up until the last couple of days were actually available to back as outsiders in this match. In the end I got on Spain @ 2.00 DNB with Betfair Sportsbook, although this price has since been cut. 
Spain are capable of playing a level of football that England simply cannot match. For my money, the performance against Portugal in Spain's opening World Cup match was the premier display of attacking verve and interchangeability of the entire tournament. Only Ronaldo's genius and a rare mishap by David de Gea thwarted them in that game. Admittedly, Spain struggled to break down Iran and Russia in the summer, the latter ultimately costing them a proper run at the trophy, but in both cases their opponents lacked any ambition beyond defending their own penalty area and hoping to capitalise on the odd set piece situation. Saturday's game will play out in a different manner and Spain will be hoping to exploit England's defensive frailties in the same way Croatia and Belgium made their umpteen chances in Russia.
What we must take into account as we search for value in these prices is that six months ago, Spain would have been favourites around the evens mark or just higher. England's Benny Hill run to the semi-finals of the World Cup (Saudi Arabia managed as many shots on goal from open play) has distorted expectations in a manner not experienced since the Golden Generation. Lest we forget, in Russia, England lost more games than they've ever lost in a single major championship. The only nations they managed to defeat were a ragtag Tunisian team, a Panama side made up of saucer-eyed semi-professionals and a Sweden squad in transition having endured the retirement of their GOAT the previous summer.
The idea that Gareth Southgate can somehow outthink Luis Enrique is bordering on the absurd. Southgate came very close to singlehandedly ensuring a second round exit against Colombia with his substitutions in extra time. He persisted in playing Kyle Walker and Raheem Sterling out of position throughout the tournament; Walker's unease in his shoehorned centre-back position eventually bore its rotten fruit as Mandzukic nipped in to silence the Twitter memes. Sterling, meanwhile, spent the tournament toiling in a position he doesn't have the ability to play. England's trickiest player divested of the freedom to express his skill. Luis Enrique has a double and a treble in his oeuvre. Southgate relegated Middlesbrough. Make no mistake; this is a mismatch.
 
Spain to win @ 2.75 Bet365

So my 4 college teams for this week are Alabama, Ohio State, Wisconsin & Notre dame. 7/1 for these teams to make a TD as the first scoring play of the game. 

Will also be posting my College football bets similarly to last season.
Week 1:
First scoring play of the match to be a Touchdown by the following teams:
Ohio State v Oregon State
USC v UNLV
Penn St v Appalachian St
Oregon v Bowling Green
bet is only available with bet365 and is currently about 10/1

Football web pages is the one I use although those two sides leagues haven’t started yet

Xander Schauffele first round leader 50/1 paddy power
Bryson DeChambeau first round leader 70/1 paddy power
 
I like the look of these two players who are playing so well this season

No dig intended, just making the point that anyone who thought they knew it all would be mistaken.
I assume he's had bets that don't get printed in the paper (given that, these days, he only puts up one bet in a typical week). He has something like 19 or 20 years of profitable tipping based on if you'd followed all his published bets over a season. I suspect the prominence with which they post his record, e.g. at the end of every season, means it's decidedly not typical of all their tipsters, who are obliged to put up several tips most match days. They are more open to revealing their individual tipsters' records on request these days, good bad or indifferent.
At the end of the day they're providing journalistic content rather than a paid tipping service so there's no obligation on them to provide detailed records of past performance. It's probably telling that it's only KP and, recently at least, their golf tipster for whom they choose to regularly publish a p/l.

I'm sorry i'm late but better late than never i suppose. Also i apologize for my English which is not the best. I'll try not to make too many errors.
Post will be a long one because i feel that everyone should have a clear picture about things in Serbian football. You guess is wright - I'm Serb.
I would like to start with our FA. More precisely with the FA President - Slavisa Kokeza. Kokeza was, as it is said in a mafia jargon, a tiny fish. He held a security agency and a brothel on the Serbian-Bosnian border. He was close to the notorious Serbian Radical Party who had an active role in the wars of the nineties. Their leader Vojislav Seselj was tried at the Hague war crimes tribunal for which he was sentenced to ten years in prison.
In 2008, this party organized a rally of support to another convicted war criminal Radovan Karadzic. Kokeza secured this gathering during which there was a conflict with the police. In riots, he was beaten by the police. I'll try to post the link with the picture from a press conference after the rally. Kokeza is at the right in the picture, in the middle is Tomislav Nikolic, former president of Serbia, and left Aleksandar Vucic, current president of Serbia.
https://www.danas.rs/sport/serdari-i-vojvode-ponovo-jasu/

Next year, Nikolic and Vucic split the Serbian Radical Party and form their own with which they won elections in 2012. Kokeza remains close to them and after 2012 begins his rise in Serbian football. I have to give you another note here and I will no longer be interested in politics. Although President Vucic in recent years, since he is in power, says that he has changed - in fact, he is not. He continues to reject any personal and responsibility of Serbian politics for wars from the past. An autocrat who has crushed all democratic freedoms in the country and institutions as well. This is important to know and understand because it is directly linked to Kokeza.

With the direct support of Vucic, Kokeza first becomes vice president of our biggest football club - Red Star from Belgrade. After a short period and after the protest of the fans, he resigned and left the club. It turned out to be in an even better position - president of Serbian FA. 
Our football federation is completely corrupt. All his bodies. Unfortunately, now I can not find one picture from a few years ago when the Steering Committee held. All members arrived at the headquarters of the federation accompanied by personal bodyguards, and each bodyguard was armed to the teeth as we have a saying in Serbia. (to the teeth it means fully)
It's a strange combination of politics, football agents and underground (mafia,mobsters if you prefer these phrases). Everyone has interests because in a poor country like Serbia, football has a lot of money and plenty of opportunities for enrichment. 
And president of the FA is almost like a Don,head of the footbal mafia and he is loyal only to the politicians who put him there.

President Kokeez's first move was somewhat unexpected. He proposed Slavoljub Muslin for the head couch of our national team. Muslin was once a very solid player of the Crvena Zvezda and Yugoslavia. As a professional player he played in France. Muslin began his coaching career at the club where he finished his playing career, Brest. He moved to Bordeaux in 1995. With a team that had great potential and players such as Bixente Lizarazu, Christophr Dugari and the future world champion Zidane, Muslin had good results in the UEFA Cup season 1995/96. securing a place in the 1/4 finals. However, he got fired in 1996 due to bad results in the championship, which means he did not lead the team in the 1/4 finals, where the Girondins won the Milan tie and came to the final in which they were defeated by Bayern Munich.
After Lans and Le Man he finally came back to Red Star,this time as head coach. His time in the Red Star was very successful. We won three titles and played well in Euro Cups.After a split with Crvena Zvezda (Red Star) he was coach of Lokeren in Belguim and several clubs from Eastern Europe. Last appotment he had was in Krasnodar i think.

He came to be head coach of natioanl tema in a tricky moment. Behind us was an unsuccessful campaign for the Euro 2016. The players were left without morale and without the support of the fans. Muslin decided to build a team from the ground. He completely changed the system and formation. As a Crvena Zvezda fan I knew exactly what I could expect from Muslin. 
Tough game,very well organised team and a discipline players. It was a footbal philosophy where only result counts and only points are important. 
We all knew that Serbia not going to play some attractive football,no "joga bonito".
Team started to play in 3-5-2 formation and and from the beginning it started to produce results. At the beginning of the qualification campaign, our most important player was Dusan Tadic, who himself participated in all goals of Serbia as a scorer or assistant.
Muslin decided to rely more on experienced players and younger ones to get a chance from the bench. Some of your may know. Serbia was the champion of the world in New Zealand in the U-20 and this generation had many talented players. But for coach only important thing was the team to qualify for Russia, not young players to develop through important matches. This kind of thinking was a correct one for the majority of fans but not for the some part of players agents. 
A special problem was created with Sergei Milinković-Savić and his agent, Mateja Kežman. Sergei is probably the most talented player of the younger generation and is already a star in Lazio. He's regular in the team and is one of the best players for which his price has risen and why he is on the radar of the biggest Europeans clubs. 
Coach Muslin did put him on the list for the beggining of the qualification, but he wanted to Sergej start from the bench. His intention was for him to be the first substitute and to be some kind of "secret weapon" against our rivals. Sergej refused this and started to demand place in starting 11 and a guaranteed minutes. The coach did not allow this and Sergej left the team saying,and i quote:"i will not play for Serbia untill Muslin is head coach".
And this raised a lot of dust in Serbia media's and this is going to become a excuse for all the attacks on Muslin which will follow.
Of course, Muslin did not care too much about this incident and continued to do the best he could. As a result, we qualifiled for the World Cup even though our team did not played some beatifull football,but it was an efficient one and probably the only way we could do it with this group of players.
So what went wrong then? As the qualifications came to an end, and as it became clear that we would succeed, those corrupt pieces in our football began to put pressure on Muslin and sought a way to get him out.
Muslin, in fact, was never the part of this story. He spent most of his coaching career in foreign countries, in countries of a different football culture. He has never become bound in such activities. He kept himself and his principles and did not want to give up to football criminals.
This football mafia saw the chance for big money. Because spot in the World Cup brings big money directly from FIFA. And then there are other possibilities. As an opportunity for managerial players to push themselves into the team and then sell for better contracts ..and coach Muslin was an opstical for this kind of activities. 
And that's why they had to get rid of him. And although Muslin achieved what he came for, he was sacked.With the pretext that the matches were unpredictable, we played bad football, that the fans wanted a more attractive game and the best players in the team. 
Of course - none of this happened accidentally, on the contrary. It was all part of the well-planned plan of Slavisa Kokeza.

Muslin went with dignity, and instead of him, his assistant Mladen Krstajic became new head coach.

Since this post is too long, I will now publish it. And in the next, I will explain the current situation within the team and why exactly I think that Serbia will experience another disappointing tournament.
The next post will not be this long, I promise.

Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel will be hard to beat in Montreal tonight after a superb session in qualifying. Whilst pole position is not everything here a fast, reliable car is and Vettel looked a good way in front of the pack.
He's 4/5 with Unibet which I think is a bit generous when you think in recent weeks the pole sitter has been around the 4/9 mark.
Hamilton is back in 4th and looks to have it all to do but more interestingly is the fact that Red Bull will start on the quicker tyre after a gamble with their strategy. They will need a bit of luck early on but turn the race on its head if it works. Verstappen is as short as 7/2 in a place which looks a bit skinny to me.
If the tactic doesn't work then a podium spot could be up for grabs and Raikkonen is the value here at 5/2.
12 drivers are odds on to finish in the top 10! that tells you there ain't much value around. You basically have 8 drivers going for 4 places outside of the big 3 teams. Renault are going well so Carlos Sainz at 8/15 with bet365 is a bet worth considering from 9th on the grid.
Bets
Under 16.5 Finishers 4/6 bet365
Vettel to win 4/5 Unibet
Sainz top 10 finish 8/15 bet365
Outside bet
Raikkonen top 3 Finish 5/2 bet365

Nuernberg FT 0:2
Frankfurt FT 1:0
Hoffenheim FT 2:0
Hamburg FT 0:0
Nice Day

Does seem odd why someone who has been a member of the forum for 4 years has chosen to make that their first post. Yeah it was crap today, but had worse days than today though and given the prices I was playing at today it isn't a shock that all of them lost as it happens from time to time. If you want someone who tips up loads of odds on shots than following my tips isn't something I would advise. There's a guy who charges 500 euros who mainly tips odds on shots in the National League so go and follow him instead. Given the amount of winning days there have been so far this season prehaps you were just very unlucky to return to the forum today and follow the tips.

You are so stupid. Please somebody to bann this guy. It is not normal to come with first post to attack one of the best tipster from this forum

Well done with Sammy on Kingstonian and not sure why allthethings fancied over 2.75 goals in our game given we usually can't score but was great to get the deserved 3rd in injury time. My picks were poor, but I am sure plenty was made on Aldershot at least.

Woken up to another profitable afternoon which is good to see

Just a great day, as things broke right everywhere. The 5.0 to 8.0 wins included three I took (Peterborough, Dons and Notts County) and one I didn't (Coventry), and the 3.0 to 5.0 draws included three I took (Stevenage, Peterborough and Carlisle) out of seven, with odds around 3.4 to 3.6 for X. In all, finished 6-8 for +15 units in FAC. Thanks where they're due to Andrew C, who gave me the push toward the historical draw in the latter case and away from the recent wins.