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bookiebasher

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  1. Sad
    bookiebasher got a reaction from harry_rag in Women's Olympic Football   
    Wow..USA 0 v SWEDEN 3 .... First time since 2017 that USA didnt score a goal and an end to there unbeaten streak. Wonder what price they are now to win gold ?
  2. Haha
    bookiebasher reacted to Middle East Leagues Expert in 2020 European Championship Final Predictions > Jul 11th   
    unfortunately and I pray Im wrong but I see Italy the winner 
  3. Like
    bookiebasher reacted to neilovan in US Open 2021   
    I think Higgo was 'given' the Palmetto but with 3 wins in his last 6 starts he has to be an outside shot. 
  4. Like
    bookiebasher got a reaction from Striker in US Open 2021   
    Very nice write ups Neilovan...I also used to live in San Diego for 5 years, between 2002 -2007 in Ocean Beach..Thats why im a mad Chargers fan, even though they have since bloody moved to L.A.now.. Cest la vie, i used to love my sundays down at the Q Stadium watching L.T., Gates and Rivers do their thing...Anyways,getting back to Golf, a fun bet i always do to get me involved is "10 Players to make the cut"..I normally hit 1 out of the 4 but so far this year ive missed out by just 1 selection on both times..So hopefully third time lucky this week... COLIN MORIKAWA, WILL ZALATORIS, XANDER SCHAUFFELE, VICTOR HOVLAND, PATRICK REED, JASON KOKRAK, TONY FINAU, LOUISE OOSTHUIZEN, GARRICK HIGGO & TAYLOR PENDRITH all To Make The Cut....Parley Pays 25/1 ..... Good Luck Everyone.
  5. Like
    bookiebasher reacted to neilovan in US Open 2021   
    Having lived in San Diego for 5 years, I spent a lot of time enjoying my golf (mostly on Torrey Pines North and South courses).. Probably played 50 rounds or more on each. I was a good golfer in the scratch to 3 handicap range.
    There are few courses around the world that will set up as difficult as Torrey pines South, in US open conditions. Three main factors;
    1) The length. Even for big hitters, it is damn long, and it's at sea level.
    2) The rough. They used to play the Buick Invitational at Torrey (now the Farmer's Insurance), but when they grow that rough, the difficulty level goes through the roof. The week after the Buick, people camp in the parking lot to be first to play a 'PGA' layout/conditioned course. Rounds take 6 hours, because nobody can find their ball when they hit it in the rough. It's insane, 6 inch rough, over seeded (like strands of thick string). Much tougher rough than in Dubai, Leopard creek, Augusta. In the rough you are probably dropping a stroke.
    3) The sea breeze. Torrey is right on the Pacific. The wind rolls in, hits the cliffs at Black's beach, and creates a tough wall to penetrate. The low stroke holes (into that breeze) are brutal (hole 1, and hole 12 especially). The cross wind holes like #2, #4, #5 require ball shaping to counter the wind. I did watch Tiger play one year, and he made mincemeat of the wind, but he was a reasonably good golfer ... But until you see it, you can't actually believe how well/hard they strike the ball.
    So with this in mind, this course is an accurate, medium to low, BIG ball strikers paradise. Guys that can't average 285 yards or better off the T have zero chance to win here. They will be 60 - 75 yards behind a big bomber.
    An example : Brendon Todd, who leads in accuracy off the Tee, but 'only' hits it 275 yards won't even make the cut. Long irons into greens are a disaster, because the green side rough is right in play all day.
    I like DeChambeau, McIIroy, Champ, Johnson, Finau, Hovland, Rahm, Koepka as big ball hitters. I like Johnson as a ball striker the best, but his putting gibbers have come back.  Koepka, the knees are still not 100%, Mcllroy can't putt and has a double/triple bogey hand grenade in his pocket..  So DeChambeau  ...does drive and gouge work again, or Rahm?
    I would add San Diego native, Schauffele (who would have played a ton of golf on that course). Mickelson won't get away with hitting it in the rough on this course and he probably misses the cut for me.
    Five Saffers could be in the mix. Oosthuizen, Higgo, van Rooyen, Grace and Nienaber.    
    Grace because of his low ball flight, Oosthuizen because he is ridiculously good (and #1 in putting) for a small guy (also grew up playing in the wind on the coast)., Higgo the hottest golfer on the planet (the guy has seriously impressive mindset, and maturity for a 21 year old). He also has this crazy  easy power.
    Nienaber who's gonna send DeChambeau to the funny farm with his 365 yard drives and swing speed.  But mentally he is not ready to win. The tournament he blew (I think between Higgo's wins on the Euro tour is a prime example).
    Top Saffer ... Higgo.
    For the others ... (Fritelli no form, Schwartzel's temper will let him down, Bezuidenthout close but nothing brilliant, Aiken short hitter)
    My feeling is that Torrey wipes the floor with the field. Forget 10 under, the winner will be closer to even par. Whoever handles this mental challenge  the best, and keeps himself under control will triumph. Cut is probably +6 and playing + golf is a weird head space for pro golfers. This could be carnage!!!
    Winner comes from DeCHAMBEAU, FINAU, RAHM, HOVLAND, HIGGO, OOSTHUIZEN for me
     
     
  6. Like
    bookiebasher reacted to neilovan in US Open 2021   
    Torrey south only has 3 par 5's. This is important, as it is one less hole where the big bombers can pick up strokes.  I think the 6th hole has been converted to a par 4, but this hole really favors a left hander, as they don't have to hit the drive over the edge of the canyon (hole dog legs left to right).
    There are 4 par 3's, and all of them are difficult. The third hole, down to the sea, in the corner, has about 8 different tee'ing boxes, and they can make it super tricky. Small green, cross wind, elevation change... good luck. The 8th hole is another tricky one, with a double tier, blind green, bunkers behind. Go too long you will not get up and down.. The 11th is a brute into the sea breeze. The 16th ringed with danger, requiring great shot. Too long, it's double bogey time. Left and right are bunkers playing onto a sloping green. The back of the green falls away, and the Tee box is lower than the green, making the wind unpredictable. Nasty hole. Par is good.
    These par 3's  will definitely favor a great iron player (Morikowa and Rahm) ranked 1 and 2 in shots gained Tee to Green. A lot will also depend on how well a hole fits a players natural distance/shot. So some may have a full club into a hole. So look at the results on the par 3's because the guys that are even or under par each round here have a perfect distance. 
    Looking closer at the stats. A few combinations of stats stand out.
    Driving Accuracy and driving distance. Obviously straight and long is a winner.  I almost think you can exclude anybody who does not keep it in the fairway at least  55% of the time. With 14 drives you are in the rough 7 times. Good luck with that!  The rough/distance to green will crush them. Out of the big guns it includes Mickelson, Gary Woodland, Speith and weirdly enough DeChambeau. I have a weird feeling that bomb and gouge will not work here, as there are too many bunkers guarding the front of the greens  (see the stats here https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.102.html).
    To me, the best holes to watch will be the par 4 2nd hole (almost reachable) 389 yard (somebody is gonna pound one close), and the par 5 13th.  621 yards, but they should have some sea breeze assistance. A big bomber with  365+ yards off the Tee will find this monster in 2.  
    Tee to green and approach to green look very important. So I am making an adjustment to the above posts prediction.
    At least 3 of these 5 (Dechambeau, Speith, Mcllroy, Mickelson and Koepka) don't make the cut. Prob the 3 others and one of DeChambeau and Koepka.
    Winner from
    FINAU, RAHM, HOVLAND, HIGGO, OOSTHUIZEN  SCHAUFFELE and MORIKOWA.  Can Rahm just keep his cool, and not blow up. The guy has so much game!
     
    For me a couple of bets I do like.
    NO HOLE IN ONE at odds of even money (the par 3's are just too difficult)
    Mcllroy not to make cut 3.75
    Spieth not to make cut 3.75
    Mickelson not to make cut 2.2 for me this bet is a gift. I expect him to shoot mid /high 70's both rounds.
     
    FOR ME the worst bet is a 3 ball bet. You are just not getting the odds to find a winner here. If you can find matchups, ie player A v player B its much better.
    1st round Head to head match ups for me ....
    John Rahm to beat Rory at 1.7   I think this one is a slam dunk. I expect Rory to shoot 4+ over 1st round. 
    Schauffele to beat Koepka 1.9
    Ootshuizen to beat Casey 1.9
    Higgo to beat Lieshman also 1.9
  7. Haha
    bookiebasher got a reaction from vikki37 in Premier League Predictions > May 23rd   
    Nice one Harry Nice one son... Nice one Harry, now give us another one 😆
  8. Haha
    bookiebasher got a reaction from harry_rag in Premier League Predictions > May 23rd   
    Nice one Harry Nice one son... Nice one Harry, now give us another one 😆
  9. Like
    bookiebasher reacted to harry_rag in Premier League Predictions > May 23rd   
    Had worst first halves with Willock and Elangi in at 6/1 and 5/1. A couple of nice wins on Willock's last 2 goals but that's 7 in a row now! No doubt missed some great prices on the previous 5! 
  10. Like
    bookiebasher reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > Easter Monday   
    I am going to try something different for this afternoon's action. Firstly nothing massively stands out from a betting point of view. One thing I am annoyed with myself about is that I haven't been blindly backing Boreham Wood to draw. They have now drawn 8 of their last 9 games and it brings memories back of Chesterfield when they were drawing a lot a couple of seasons ago and long term followers will remember it was a very profitable system. They drew against the league leaders on Saturday and they play 2nd place Hartlepool today and again a draw would not surprise. I therefore thought I would pick 4 games out that I thought might end in a draw and stick them in a yankee for 1pt. The other games I am going to stick in are Maidenhead v Eastleigh, Solihull v Sutton and Wrexham v Torquay. If 2 end in a draw it will basically be money back, 3 will see a profit, 4 will be the jackpot and obviously 0 or 1 will see a loss.
    Boreham Wood v Hartlepool
    Maidenhead v Eastleigh
    Solihull v Sutton
    Wrexham v Torquay
    A draw Yankee for a total of 1pt
  11. Like
    bookiebasher reacted to Fader in UK Open   
    3pts D.Noppert to beat G.Durrant evens paddypower
    1pt accy - Van Duijvenbode, Noppert, Van Der Voort, Ratajski 13/1 paddypower
    0.5ps big accy - Lennon, Razma, Noppert, Hunt, Labanaukas 33/1 paddypower 
     
  12. Haha
  13. Like
    bookiebasher got a reaction from Perfect Storm in Covid: The Perfect Storm!!!   
    Ive done Bradford, as well as Oxford who are on fire and Everton and Norwich, Thrown a bit on the parley that pays 12/1... Orient to to win 3 - 0 i hope lol
  14. Like
    bookiebasher got a reaction from the finster in L1, L2, & Scottish Predictions > Jan 29th & 30th   
    BRADFORD AND OXFORD SCREAM TO BE BACKED JUST ON RECENT FROM ALONE...
  15. Like
    bookiebasher got a reaction from Perfect Storm in Covid: The Perfect Storm!!!   
    Bradford are 23/20 to beat Barrow at home..Looks a good price to me.. Any takers ? 
  16. Like
    bookiebasher got a reaction from Perfect Storm in Covid: The Perfect Storm!!!   
    So the couple of games i have betted against Bolton this season they,ve done me in, late equalisers and they even won once.. Tempted to back Mansfield tomorrow as the form book screams out Mansfield.. Any team news you guys know about that could sway my decision either way ?. Thanks in advance...And what is the likelyhood that they could lose 17 points as im due over 5 figures if they did go down lol
  17. Like
    bookiebasher reacted to Perfect Storm in Covid: The Perfect Storm!!!   
    First of all I dint know that Dieng had been red carded, that's a blow for Southend, the less I say now about their chance the less chance of jinxing the Shrimpers.
    Good luck with the bet Alley Cat, I hope they come in for you, I've sewn me pockets up after last night, I went in neck deep on Spurs taking the 1/4 {4 monkeys to win one}, I damn near choked when Wycombe Wunderers went 1 up, then to see the woodwork play a blinder to keep Spurs out. At least there were signs of a lifebelt when with a last gasp of the first half Bale made it 1-1. Hard to believe how many shots went in, 28 in all, with 10 of them on goal, yet with 5 minutes left on the clock it was still 1-1 and I feared the worst.
    You might imagine my RELIEF when Winks slotted one in on the 86th minute, was I glad to see Son make it 3-1 a minute later, that sealed the deal, no coming back from 3-1 with less than 5 minutes to play, well, not with a team like Wycombe playing Spurs.
    That was a tough monkey to bag, I think someone up there was trying to tell me "there's no easy money" that certainly wasn't, anyway, all's well that ends well, long as you don't have a heart attack.
    Bookie Basher: As for the Wunderers doing you in, join the club, I'm still licking the Barrow, Carlisle & Harrogate wounds, gawd knows how they came back from 3-0 against Barrow, how they drew 3-3 at Carlisle with the last e in kick of the game, or how they beat Harrowgate at Harrogate, those 5 points ALONE have managed to keep them out of the bottom 3.
    As for FV going bust, I WISH I knew, I don't know how they are keeping the ship afloat, the Hotel alone is a Millstone, there's more folks visited the Pope than have visited the Whites Hotel in the last 6 months, but the place has been kept open even though there's rarely a day when there's more guests than staff. Must be a headache for Punch & Judy they went into this Vanity Venture thinking it would be a cash cow, no wonder when they slid their £800,000 bucket underneath the Wunderers, but that seems to have gone sour.
    I can't see where the money is coming from, there's no one in the Hotel, and the turnstiles haven't clicked since a ball was kicked, but the overheads have to be paid, not to mention the £5 million or so of inherited debt, most of that due in 6 months time, including to HMRC, they'll make sure they get the full amount. If only the accounts were due at Companies House now rather than August.
    Now for News from the Western Front, seems like Delaney didn't just get a red card on Saturday, he damn near did a Van Gogh...
    https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/19038166.bolton-wanderers-boss-ian-evatt-reacts-horror-injury/
    Not that he'll be missed tonight, most of the Wunderers Fanatics would prefer he doesn't take to the pitch, in fact few of then even want Delaney's Donkey warming the bench.
    But, talk about when the tide is running against you, Evatt must be thinking he killed a Priest in another life...
    https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/19037716.blow-bolton-peter-kioso-joins-northampton-town/
    Speaking of Evatt {not that I'm complaining} here's his latest missive...
    https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/19038167.manchester-united-right-back-solksjaer-says-evatt/
    It beggars belief how he compares himself with Ole Gunner Solkjaer and Frank Lampard, a self deluded dreamer but a nightmare for the Wunderers.
    Add to that...
    "The club is in good hands, I can assure every supporter that Sharon and the rest of the board are FANTASTIC people, they are dedicated to this club and understand it."
     
    Ask not for who the bell tolls,,,
    The problem comes back to Punch & Judy, they are way out of their depth when it comes to owning a football club, their appointment of Evatt points to that.
    Do you reckon they had a Plan B ? did anyone see Wu Flu coming ?
    My guess is, Punch & Judy have no other option than to pretend it's just a bad dream, one that will go away, it won't...
    :STOP THE PRESS:
    TONIGHTS GAME IS CALLED OFF !!!
    https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/19039446.wanderers-league-two-clash-mansfield-town-postponed/
    Not sure if that's a good thing, or a bad thing for us ? some good results tonight for us would really turn the PRESSURE UP !!!
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
  18. Like
    bookiebasher reacted to Alley Cat Glover in Covid: The Perfect Storm!!!   
    Don’t think there will be any surprises team wise, nobody back from injury and Delaney missing through suspension. Mansfield appear strong now and wouldn’t put you off, but Bolton away do seem to pick up some results when you least expect. Even when 2 or 3 down they have comeback for decent points.
    Deduction wise my gut tells that’s not going to happen, if they borrowed 40M until 2022 and beyond, not sure anyone can ask for that back, Perfect Storm is better located and closer to the news than me though.
    Still talk of new player(s) from the manager in this transfer window although under embargo so only loans and freebies I think. Fans want 4 or 5 might be 1 or 2. Lad from Luton won’t be back gone to Northampton he was almost ever present in 1st half of season. Are they good enough to avoid relegation? Would suggest they need minimum of 6 wins to give them 46pts. That would mean Southend, Grimsby and Stevenage would need 8 or 9 wins to climb above them. All to play for, my cash out from Skybet has been climbing recently so that’s good news although it is a touch like Bitcoin in that behaviour!
    All the best.
  19. Like
    bookiebasher got a reaction from harry_rag in Premier League Predictions > Jan 16th - 18th   
    won after 5 minutes mate 
  20. Like
    bookiebasher reacted to harry_rag in Premier League Predictions > Jan 16th - 18th   
    Even a stopped clock is right twice a day!
  21. Like
    bookiebasher reacted to harry_rag in Premier League Predictions > Jan 16th - 18th   
    Sheffield U v Spurs: 14 points on Son to assist a goal at 13/5 with PP.
    Persisting for at least one more game! 
  22. Like
    bookiebasher reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > December 23rd - January 2nd   
    December was very much a month of 2 halves. From the start until the 12th I had 12/18 winners. From the 15th until the end I have had just 4/21 winners. Still most of the losers have just been 1pt selections so there was little damage done to the great profits from the first half and I was still 36pts up on the month from 61.5 staked.
    The yearly total stands at 197pts staked and 155pts profit.
  23. Like
    bookiebasher reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > December 23rd - January 2nd   
    Amazingly we put out a weak side and have still hammered them. Taken me by surprise I must say but there we go. Boxing Day tips will be up tomorrow at some point.
  24. Like
    bookiebasher reacted to betcatalog in La Liga Predictions > Dec 22nd & 23rd   
    Sociedad's injury problems are worrying and it is very difficult not to trust Atletico Madrid due to their excellent form this season. We are expecting a closed game on Tuesday afternoon, but we believe that the visitors will have enough reasons to claim three very important points.
    REAL SOCIEDAD vs ATLETICO MADRID @@ ATLETICO MADRID, odds 2.35
    This match has all the advantages of a very interesting football game, with both teams entering the match with positive results. Athletic Bilbao is able to make it difficult in the 90th minute for the Yellow Submarine, so I see a tight game, where it will be judged in detail, after all they both have a hard time scoring comfortably. The few goals have the first.
    VILLARREAL vs ATHLETIC BILBAO @@ +2,5 Under, odds 1.70
  25. Like
    bookiebasher reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 15th December   
    The run will end at some point I am sure, but another fantastic day on Saturday which means the profit currently stands at 147.24 points for the season which quite frankly is staggering really. This week we have an FA Trophy double header with the Step 2 sides coming in on Tuesday and the Step 1 sides coming in on Saturday. I am taking 4 possible upsets on Tuesday night in the Trophy and 1 bet in the 4 games taking place in the National League.
    Solihull v Halifax
    Halifax were struggle for goals and then they played Barnet and Weymouth and scored 5 past both of them. They added to that tally of 10 by adding 3 last Tuesday against Aldershot and now they are scoring goals they can be backed to beat an under performing Solihull. Granted they did beat Hartlepool in their 1st game after their FA Cup defeat, but they weren't great and their rivals did have a man sent off to help. They then lost 4-1 to Sutton and were poor on the TV on Saturday to Bromley. I would have Halifax around the 2/1 mark
    Blyth Spartans v Morpeth
    Blyth are looking doomed to relegation already and in a normal season they would already be playing Morpeth in a league game. Now I am taking a chance in backing 4 Step 3 and 4 sides given they haven't played any league games since the start of the 2nd lockdown, but I do think that is factored into the prices of the selections. Morpeth would likely have made the play-offs and they are better than their current league position. Being a local derby they will be bang up for this and Blyth are there for the taking.
    Bracknell v Havant & Waterlooville
    The Havant manager has already said he will be resting players tonight and that gives a strong Bracknell side for their level a chance to beat Havant tonight. They have only played 5 games, but have won 4 and drawn the other. They had a good win last Tuesday against Salisbury and as I saw they have a chance of winning this with Havant resting players.
    Concord Rangers v Truro City (now on Saturday)
    This would likely have been a league game if the season had have been completed last season and Truro are looking strong again this time around. Concord are still to play last seasons final and it would be an odd quirk if they got to the final of this year's competition as I can't see it happening before we know this season's finalists. This is a tricky tie for them though. They have only won twice in their last 10 league games and I think Truro have the better side.
    Marine v Southport
    Happy to back Marine again here as Southport have been really struggling for form. They have only picked up a point in their last 4 games and that was to an Alfreton side who are doing even worse than they have. One win in 8 for Southport and we know Marine are a good side who can beat better teams than Southport from this level. As I mentioned ahead of their game on Saturday they have had the advantage of playing in the FA Cup and being able to train during lockdown.
    Halifax 1pt @ 100/30 with William Hill
    Morpeth 1pt @ 29/10 with Betfair
    Bracknell 1pt @ 11/2 with Betfred
    Truro 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365 and Betfred
    Marine 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365 & Betfred
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