2023 World Championships

[daveg]

With a week to go until the big one, thought I'd post my thoughts and a few bets ahead of the World Championship that starts on Thursday December 15th.

 

Top 7 in the betting

 

Michael van Gerwen (11/4 Betway, 5/2 General)

Van Gerwen comes into the World Championships as favourite, and in my eyes is the most likely winner of the event. His form towards the back end of the season has been excellent, winning the Grand Prix and Players Championship Finals and reaching the quarter-finals of the Grand Slam. Earlier on in the year he also captured the Premier League and World Matchplay, and having looked a bit vulnerable for the last couple of seasons, he looks like he is on his way back to his best. His record at the World Champs is impressive, three titles (2014, 2017 & 2019) and runner-up twice (2013 & 2020) in the last ten years. The last six players to beat him at Ally Pally have had to average in excess of 100 to beat him – so you have to play very well to defeat him in this event. Van Gerwen had to withdraw from the event 12 months ago due to Covid, I reckon he takes all the beating this time around.

 

Gerwyn Price (6/1 General)

Gerwyn Price comes into Ally Pally as the second favourite and number one seed, but I’m finding it a bit difficult to read his form right now. A finalist at the Matchplay earlier on in the year, he reached the semi-finals of the Grand Prix but exited in the first round of the European Championship and Players Championship Finals. As a former winner, the ‘Iceman’ has to be respected, but I don’t think he’s playing his best right now. I suspect Price will go fairly deep in the tournament, but I don’t see him winning it this year. 

 

Michael Smith (8/1 Unibet, 15/2 General)

‘Bully Boy’ finally captured his first TV Major at the Grand Slam of Darts last month, and his second might not be too far away. Even before the Grand Slam, Smith was having a decent season, reaching the final of the UK Open and European Championships as well as winning three Players Championship events and one European Tour event. His record at the World Championship over the last four years has been feast or famine. Early exits in 2020 and 2021 are sandwiched by appearances in the final in 2019 and 2022. In last year’s final he averaged over 99 and led Peter Wright 5-4, before Wright played some spell-binding darts to reel off the final three sets. With the added confidence of his first TV major, Smith has every chance of going all the way this year.

 

Peter Wright (11/1 General)

It’s not been the best of years for Peter Wright, and that’s before we take a look at his results on the dartboard. An operation over the summer ruled him out of World Series events in Australia and New Zealand, and whilst he bounced back to win on the European Tour in September, he’s been hit by further setbacks with the health of his wife. As a result ‘Snakebite’ pulled out of the Players Championship Finals so his preparation hasn’t been ideal, and with matters off the oche rightly his priority at the moment, Wright doesn’t appeal this time around. As defending champion Wright could make the 11/1 quotes look massive come the New Year, but equally it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if he lost on the opening night and prioritised his personal life over Christmas.

 

Luke Humphries (14/1 General)

Luke Humphries comes into the World Championships as a major threat in my opinion. ‘Cool Hand Luke’ won four European Tour titles earlier in the year and has followed that up with semi-final appearances at both the Grand Slam and Players Championship Finals. His record at the World Championships is also pretty good, a quarter-finalist in three of the last four seasons – and he’s arguably playing much better coming into the tournament this time around than in previous years. Unfortunately, Humphries is in the same quarter of the draw as Michael Smith, but Humphries is up to number five in the World now, you don’t get there without performing consistently well in the big events.

 

Josh Rock (16/1 General)

I’m a big fan of Josh Rock and what he’s achieved this year, but can’t help feel the hype surrounding the young Northern Irishman has bought his price in too far, and he’s become unbackable for me now. This has been Rock’s debut season on the PDC Pro Tour and in the second half of the year he’s played some incredible darts, consistently averaging in the high 90’s. Parallels are being drawn to when Rob Cross burst onto the scene in 2017, but in that season Cross reached the final of the European Championship, two European Tour events and won four Players Championship events. In comparison Rock has won one Players Championship and didn’t progress past the second round in any of the big tournaments towards the back end of the year. There’s no doubt ‘Rocky’ has had a great debut season, but at odds of 16/1 he’s not for me this time around. (Nathan Aspinall, Rob Cross and Danny Noppert have all reached major TV finals and plenty of floor finals this year, and can be backed at twice the odds of Rock).

 

Jonny Clayton (18/1 General)

Jonny Clayton has had another decent season in the non-ranking events, but he’s disappointed in most of the big ranking events recently, losing out in the second round of the Grand Prix, European Championships and Grand Slam. In the most recent tournament, the Players Championship Finals, he made it through to the semi-finals, but his level seems to have dropped compared to the last couple of years. His record at the World Championship doesn’t inspire confidence either, having never made it to the quarter-finals in six attempts.

 

A few others at bigger prices

 

Rob Cross (33/1 General)

It’s been a bit of a mixed bag this season for Cross, disappointing in most of the big TV majors, but then last time out making the final of the Players Championship Finals. Away from the big stage, he’s reached the final of three European Tour events and picked up two titles on the floor in the Players Championship events – so there are signs Cross could do some damage at Ally Pally. He seems slightly over-priced at 33/1, but being in the same quarter as van Gerwen has dampened my enthusiasm for ‘Voltage’.

 

Nathan Aspinall (40/1 Unibet, 33/1 General)

Aspinall has had some injury concerns over the last 18 months, so it’s pretty impressive that he’s bounced back to reach two major finals this year; runner-up to van Gerwen at the Grand Prix and to Michael Smith at the Grand Slam. Aspinall has also reached five finals on the floor this season, more than any other player, winning two of them. ‘The Asp’ has also reached the semi-finals at Ally Pally in two of the last four years, so knows what it takes to go deep in this tournament. The draw could have been kinder to Aspinall, Rock or Callan Rydz in round three, and then seeded to play Clayton in round four and Wright in the quarter-finals, but I’m not ruling out another good showing from Aspinall.

 

Beau Greaves (400/1 PaddyPower)

I won’t be backing Beau Greaves, even at 400/1, but I’m hoping she can shake things up a bit at Ally Pally this year. The 18-year-old has been sensational in the PDC Women’s Series this year, she’s won the last eight events in the series to qualify for this event, a total of 52 consecutive matches. Whilst the quality of opposition clearly isn’t as good as on the main PDC Pro Tour, that takes some doing. Across those 52 matches she’s averaged 85.8, but in many of those games her average would probably have been higher if she’d have been pushed a bit more. An indication of how she can perform was seen in final of the penultimate Women’s Series event, where she beat Fallon Sherrock 5-3 and averaged close to 108. She’ll surely have the Ally Pally crowd behind her, and whilst she won’t be carrying my money, she will have my support – until she faces Michael Smith in the semi-final ?.

 

So it’s Michael van Gerwen and Michael Smith to win the title. I can’t ignore the chances of Luke Humphries to have a deep run, and will take a chance on Nathan Aspinall to see off the highly fancied Josh Rock early on and reach the semi-finals.

 

Michael van Gerwen to win Outright 5 pts @ 11/4 Betway

Michael Smith to win Outright 3 pts @ 8/1 Unibet

Luke Humphries to reach Quarter-Finals 5 pts @ 6/4 PaddyPower

Nathan Aspinall to win the Third Quarter 2 pts @ 9/1 BetVictor

[Fader]

nice one dave. I'm going to have a proper look at the Worlds over the weekend but probably agree that it's a tournament that MVG should win.

[Robaldo]

I also like Ross Smith, no idea what you guys think of it but every time he plays I have the feeling he could be anyone. His high scoring is always putting pressure on the opponent and you need to be a green guy to not be disturbed by this I feel..  I would want to make a bet on both Smiths for the 180s each match.. It's incredible the level of both when they are flying..

 

[Fader]

Here is what I'll be going for. 10pts on the outright. 9pts on quarters and 1 point split into 2 punts on the finalists.

Outrights
4pts M.Smith to win Worlds 15/2 paddypower
1pt e/w N.Aspinall to win Worlds 33/1 paddypower
1pt e/w Chisnall to win Worlds 40/1 willhill
0.5pts e/w Searle to win Worlds 66/1 bet365
0.5pts e/w R.Smith to win Worlds 66/1 paddypower

Quarter 1
2pts R.Searle to win Q1 10/1 bet365
0.5pts L.Woodhouse to win Q1 50/1 paddypower
0.5pts R.Meikle to win Q1 80/1 betvictor

Quarter 2
0.5pts C.Menzies to win Q2 66/1 betfred

Quarter 3
0.5pts e/w K.Barry to win Q3 40/1 betfred
0.5pts e/w Rowby Rodriguez to win Q3 50/1 betvictor

Quarter 4
0.5pts e/w De Decker to win Q4 100/1 betvictor
0.5pts e/w S.Williams to win Q4 50/1 betvictor

0.5pts guess on finalists - Price Vs Aspinall 66/1 paddypower
0.5pts guess on finalists - M.Smith Vs Aspinall 100/1 paddypower

 

[daveg]

Adding one more outright bet at bigger odds …

Michael van Gerwen to win the tournament, hit a 170 checkout and a 9-dart finish 0.5pts @ 66/1 Skybet

I’ve already set out why I think van Gerwen is the most likely winner of this event, so to add a bit more interest, I’m also going to back him to hit a 170 checkout and a 9-dart finish in the process. His record of 170 finishes in this event is incredible, hitting one in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 !!! He hasn’t hit one in the last couple of years, but it’s clearly a finish he likes to leave. The 9-darter has been a bit more elusive; he did hit one on the Ally Pally stage in the 2013 tournament, but it sounds as though van Gerwen wants to make a bit of a statement in this tournament, so this would be a good way to do it. Furthermore, this bet would have landed in the last tournament, the Players Championship Finals, when MVG hit a 170 checkout and a 9-darter against Rob Cross in the final. 

[Fader]

Excited much. This is what Christmas is about. DARTS! 4 matches on tonight. The 4th match being Peter Wright taking on Mansell or Robb. My main bet of the night will be Keane Barry to beat the inexperienced Sampson. I actually think we could see a few underdog wins tonight. If this was a Players Championship match, away from the cameras then Mansell would beat Robb but Mansell has had some poor results here and Robb could nick that first match. I remember watching Wattimena go out very tamely to Boris in this event too and I very much rate Rafferty as an up and coming player on the circuit.

6pts Barry to win 3-0 4/6 willhill
----------------------------------------------------
2pts Rafferty to beat Wattimena 6/4 paddypower
2pts Barry to win, most 180s and highest checkout 11/8 skybet
1pt treble - Barry to win 3-0, Robb to win and Rafferty to win 8/1 paddypower
 

 

[Fader]

46 minutes ago, daveg said:

 

Adding one more outright bet at bigger odds …

Michael van Gerwen to win the tournament, hit a 170 checkout and a 9-dart finish 0.5pts @ 66/1 Skybet

I’ve already set out why I think van Gerwen is the most likely winner of this event, so to add a bit more interest, I’m also going to back him to hit a 170 checkout and a 9-dart finish in the process. His record of 170 finishes in this event is incredible, hitting one in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 !!! He hasn’t hit one in the last couple of years, but it’s clearly a finish he likes to leave. The 9-darter has been a bit more elusive; he did hit one on the Ally Pally stage in the 2013 tournament, but it sounds as though van Gerwen wants to make a bit of a statement in this tournament, so this would be a good way to do it. Furthermore, this bet would have landed in the last tournament, the Players Championship Finals, when MVG hit a 170 checkout and a 9-darter against Rob Cross in the final. 

that's a lovely price. Like that bet.

[Fader]

That's a absolute shocking performance from Barry. Odds of Sampson match treble must have been 50/1 odd

[Torque]

17 minutes ago, Fader said:

That's a absolute shocking performance from Barry. Odds of Sampson match treble must have been 50/1 odd

Yeah that was something else. Less than 80 average, couldn't double for love nor money and the only set he won was against the throw. Who'd have thought it when he broke in the first leg.

[Fader]

55 minutes ago, Torque said:

Yeah that was something else. Less than 80 average, couldn't double for love nor money and the only set he won was against the throw. Who'd have thought it when he broke in the first leg.

yeah 2-0 up in set 1 and could have potentially lose the match 3-0. Atleast Rafferty won I guess. 

[Fader]

The afternoon session has a few good matches but nothing that screams out to me. One little bet I will take is the match trebles with Huybrechts, Lewis and Krcmar. All 3 should win their matches today. With that in mind, the 2/1 on Lewis and Huybrechts both just to hit the most 180s also looks a good price. In the evening matches, I'm not one for following the Beau Greaves show and I think Willie beats her 3-0 or 3-1.

1pt Huybrechts, Lewis and Krcmar all to win their match trebles 11/1 
3pts Huybrechts and Lewis both to hit most 180s in their matches 2/1
2pts O'Connor to beat Greaves, hit most 180s and highest checkout 5/2 skybet
2pts O'Connor 3-0 9/4 skybet

[daveg]

It’s been a bit of a slow start to the Championships, but hopefully tonight things warm up a bit tonight. The one I fancy tonight is Florian Hempel to beat Keegan Brown with a 1.5 set deficit. Brown won a title on the floor in August, but since then he’s won just three of his 12 matches, including two defeats from two on the stage. Hempel qualified for this by winning the German Super League, and played well here last year when seeing off Schindler and van den Bergh.

2pts Hempel (-1.5 sets) v Brown @ 6/4 Bet365

 

[Fader]

2/1 comes in. So annoying that the 11/1 didn't hit. Boris not one 180. The Hempel match is huge for Brown. Brown is just outside the top 64 if i recall and basically he could lose his tour card unless he wins so that puts me off Hempel bets but in general, Hempel is a good player and should win. He was excellent here last year and that win over Van Den Bergh was real class.

[Fader]

what's everybody's opinion on Beaus match? I want to like her chances as she has the same name as one of my dogs but I just think Willie wins it with ease. I know he has been practising mad hard for it, too.

[Fader]

two to add tonight, I think Smith turns up and i could obviously be wrong but for me Beau struggles

2pts Smith to win 3-0, most 180s and highest checkout 4/1 skybet
2pts O'Connor win 3-0 and win every set 3-0 or 3-1 6/1 paddypower 

[Torque]

32 minutes ago, Fader said:

what's everybody's opinion on Beaus match? I want to like her chances as she has the same name as one of my dogs but I just think Willie wins it with ease. I know he has been practising mad hard for it, too.

If you think Willie wins then he looks a good price to me as he knows this stage and was only a miscount away from possibly beating Price on it a few years back. It's such an unknown though how he'll cope with what's likely to be a partisan crowd, plus Beau can clearly play. She might be the best female player right now which is scary when you realise she's only 18. From what I've read she has a good temperament and it seems people expect her to thrive on this big stage but again who knows - she's not been here before.

Compared to Sherrock's prices in recent years you'd have to say her price is on the skinny side but then again, winning is a habit and Beau has won a silly amount of matches in a row if I've read right - something like 60 - and that breeds confidence as you'd expect. All things considered it's a difficult match to call, but my first instinct was that Willie was a nice price but having said that I'll be leaving it alone.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Torque

[Fader]

The thing is, how used is she to going a set or two down. Most yet matches it seems like she just dominates from the off. That big stage does things to players and most importantly she's playing women who probably average 80-85 max on a good day. Will be an interesting meet

[Torque]

10 minutes ago, Fader said:

The thing is, how used is she to going a set or two down. Most yet matches it seems like she just dominates from the off. That big stage does things to players and most importantly she's playing women who probably average 80-85 max on a good day. Will be an interesting meet

Agree. Fighting back from a deficit is something you need a bit of practice of and as you say Beau hasn't had any practice like that for some time. One thing I do wonder about though as I've already mentioned is how O'Connor will cope with the crowd - thinking back that miscount against Price suggests he can get flustered and that plus watching Evetts and Suljovic dissolve against Sherrock makes me think that he might just lose. Even so, at the prices I think O'Connor has to be taken.

[Fader]

Very nice result tonight. 3-0 O'Connor 

Just wish he got a solid checkout but 9/4 on 3 nil and Smith destroyed Rafferty really. That 4/1 wins easy for the match treble with a 3 nil 

[daveg]

Should have taken heed of your warning @Fader, Keegan Brown was bang up for that game, and although Hempel won, he didn’t cover the handicap.

 

Any thoughts on Souter this afternoon, a bit surprised he’s the outsider. Played well here last year, and at the Grand Slam last month. Will probably have to up his game a bit from yesterday, but he’s well capable of doing that and Gurney doesn’t seem to be in any sort of form.

[Fader]

I like Soutar today. I would make him a favourite. Here is what I'll be going for in the afternoon session

2.5pts Gawlas to beat Burnett 5/4 paddypower
2.5pts Soutar to beat Gurney evens paddypower
1pt afternoon 4-fold - Lukeman 3-0, Whitlock to win and hit the most 180s, Gawlas and Soutar 8/1 paddypower

[Fader]

that's 6/5 on Gawlas. Not 5/4

[Torque]

12 hours ago, Fader said:

Very nice result tonight. 3-0 O'Connor 

Just wish he got a solid checkout but 9/4 on 3 nil and Smith destroyed Rafferty really. That 4/1 wins easy for the match treble with a 3 nil 

O'Connor played well. Did that thing you always hear about which is play the board not the opponent - which Evetts and Suljovic definitely didn't do.

Edited December 17, 2022 by Torque

[Fader]

1 hour ago, Torque said:

O'Connor played well. Did that thing you always hear about which is play the board not the opponent - which Evetts and Suljovic definitely didn't do.

Yeah, I've said it before but some guys find it really hard to play against women when they have basically never had to. O'Conner wasn't really her beat opponent to play. If she played evetts I'd fancy her. O'Connor is a quality player 

[Torque]

4 hours ago, Fader said:

I like Soutar today. I would make him a favourite. Here is what I'll be going for in the afternoon session

2.5pts Gawlas to beat Burnett 5/4 paddypower
2.5pts Soutar to beat Gurney evens paddypower
1pt afternoon 4-fold - Lukeman 3-0, Whitlock to win and hit the most 180s, Gawlas and Soutar 8/1 paddypower

Nice call on Gawlas - he turned it around well. Shame about Whitlock for the acca but on the other hand seeing him play like that makes him opposable in the next round. He should have lost really but was less bad than his opponent on the doubles. Went to the madhouse at the end of the final set to hold his throw and that was what got him over the line.

[Fader]

Yeah, sods law the one that loses was like 1/7 on. Really wish I left that game alone. Good for the 2 singles but have to feel sorry for the recent form of Gurney. 

[Fader]

suppose it's a money back on the 4-fold. Anyways, onto the evening. 

Meikle V Ashton
Menzies V Portela
Rock V Justicia
Van Den Bergh V Illagan

I think Meikle beats Ashton but I just can't decide if Ashton wins a set or not. I'm going to take Meikle with a -2.5 leg handicap as I personally think with his recent form he should win this match quite comfortably.  I think Rock and Menzies both win their match but there is no respect really shown to their competitors and I reckon both Portela and Justicia have it in them to win a set. With that in mind the treble tonight is this 10/1 shot for me

Meikle (-2.5 leg handicap) / Both to win a set and Menzies win / Both to win a set and Rock win 10/1 paddypower

[Fader]

One to add tonight, on Skybet

2pts Rock and Van Den Bergh both to win 3-0 OR 3-1, have the most 180s and highest checkout 5/2 skybet

[Fader]

argh, so annoyed with that bet on Meikle. I bet fully thinking that it was -2.5 legs, which was covered. He won -3.5 legs but not sets. Legs and sets were different prices but it's been put down a loser and i had an accy lose because of that bet too. 

[Torque]

23 minutes ago, Fader said:

argh, so annoyed with that bet on Meikle. I bet fully thinking that it was -2.5 legs, which was covered. He won -3.5 legs but not sets. Legs and sets were different prices but it's been put down a loser and i had an accy lose because of that bet too. 

I'd just take it on the chin. I can't imagine you thought Ashton would take Meikle to a deciding set which he didn't have the throw in and with that in mind the leg cap was fortunate to be covered let alone the set.