The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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3.00 Km El Monte one point win at 125/1 with Betvictor
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Held up in my analysis so going for a couple of bets at Kempton:
1.25 My Girl Maggie £1.50 win at 3/1
1.55 River Chorus £3 win at 2/1
One £4 win double = poss return of £48
total stakes = £8.50
Both blown out (typical that the favourites win today but were terrible yesterday
Anyway, 4.35 Km Phoenix Star £4.50 win at 2/1 = poss return of £13.50
This is a well thought out recovery bet. I cap my total stakes (including recovery bets at £20 per day). Not sure if I will look for another one if this horse loses.
I will now go in search of my 100/1 + shot for the naps comp now
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Got saved again by my extra bet. In effect this led me to break even over the day as I did put 50p on my 125/1 shot.
The mistake I made with my double was to include the top rated (RPR & Timeform) but to ignore the favourite. In future, my mutliple bets will have to be favourite and ideally be top rated by RPR and Timeform but in order to allow a a little latitude in prices I may be content with either top RPR or Timeform . I will see how this goes in December.
Multiples = a loss of £4 therefore balance c/fwd £608.04 (Bank £800). Top rated multiples £4 loss. Balance = (£15.65)
Singles a profit of £4.50 = a balance c/fwd of £154.68 (Bank £400)
Effectively two over the jumps and two All weather meetings tomorrow. Heavy going at Lingfield. Should be interesting
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52 minutes ago, calva decoy said:
Ah , the tactical approach.
I'm currently 24th so went for a 4/1 shot to hopefully consolidate my position.
3.20 Fakenham - Glimpse Of Gold 6/1 betfair ( 2 places )
Always look out for S.Humphrey horses here at Fakenham, booking of B.Frost also caught the eye.
Well, I like to try and win the comp. I am hoping that concentrating on most winners from next month may help me at least get into the KO cup.
Glimpse of Gold did catch my eye too. I may even have a small bet on it. My top rated is Gold Fields. It is up 12lbs and disappointed a bit last time. It is also 2nd in the betting market so it will not be in my Trixie if I do one today
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3 minutes ago, Trotter said:
For the first time in 12 or 13 years I've not been posting much in the Nap of the Day comp for the last 2 months
Not sure if I'm 'taking a break' or giving up
I've won it numerous times, finished top of the Annual Table 3 times in the last 10 years, .......... I think I've done my bit !
I'll see how it goes.
Well, I hope you rediscover your mojo. In any case your posts are always worth a read
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Just starting this thread off today as I can't see the topic listed.
Looks like I will need a 100/1 winner to win the Naps comp today. As reported previously i will be focussing on the most number of winners next month, albeit I will still resort to big priced selections at the tail end of the month should I not be doing too well with the short priced selections
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52 minutes ago, alancraik said:
another loss today
Didn't Rath An luir get you out of trouble
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5 hours ago, alancraik said:
todays selections
CARLISLE 13:50 Happy Diva 8/11 win
CARLISLE 14:20 Mount Mews 5/2 win
CARLISLE 14:50 Rath An Iuir 6/4 win
plus win trixieWell done with Rath an luir. Did the job nicely
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13 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
2.12 Ffos Le Coeur Net £4 win at 3.55 = Poss return of £10.
May go for Rath An luir in the 2.50 at Carl if this one fails. apologies to @alancraikif I put the mockers on his selection
Won nicely so I have got my money back already. No need to back Rath An luir now but I sincerely hope that it wins ?
- MCLARKE and The Brigadier
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2.12 Ffos Le Coeur Net £4 win at 3.55 = Poss return of £10.
May go for Rath An luir in the 2.50 at Carl if this one fails. apologies to @alancraikif I put the mockers on his selection
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Well , no winners from my Trixie but my get out of jail bet paid off with Le Couer Net.
Multiples loss = £4 Bal c/fwd £612.04 (Bank £800). Top rated multiples no winners, bal fwd is (-£11.65)
Singles Net win £4 therefore bal c/fwd £150.18 (£400 Bank)
Very strange day where many of my top rated selections including three odds on favourites failed to win. Perhaps this is a blip. We'll see.
Four meetings tomorrow with forecast heavy going at Ayr. I think I will look at the other three meetings first
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One Trixie and some singles bets today. My highest rated selection are almost all odds on so I will take a chance with the more riskier options (only one, Ector is 2nd top rated with its RPR)
1.42 Ffos Nocte Volatious (£2.50 win at 3/1)
3.13 Ffos Ector (£2.50 win at 9/4)
3.50 Ffos The Wire Flyer (£1 win at 11/2; great price if nothing else)1 x £1 win = £4 Trixie with a poss return of £144.62
Total stakes of £10
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2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Well done with the winner.
Have you taken the lower commission offer from Betfair? I think if you do then you are not eligible for any of their other offers.
Yes. Thanks Michael for reminding me that I took the 2% commission on Betfair and am therefore not entitled to BOG on Sportsbook bets. I was confused because the little "BOG" sign still showed when I was about to place my bets, whereas this has been removed from my betslip when I place bets on Bet 365.
I see that Punters Lounge have put up selections for the Accumulator Tips at more traditional short prices for tomorrows meetings. I do hope that they continue to do so as this seems only right when it has built up its reputation for this profitable strategy based upon on this over the last few years.
For my part I will seek to provide a Trixie based upon the best top rated horse with strong market and expert support. I will try to avoid any selections under evens (annoying that I could have taken 1/1 with Bet365 for Epatante today had I not duped myself into thinking that I could get BOG with Sportsbook). ?
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3.00 Nb Ardlethen one point win at 33/1 with Betfair
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One Trixie bet today:
11.45 Nc Castel Gandolfo 1/1
12.35 Don Gunsight Ridge 5/4 (£6 win bet: Best of all my selections)
2.05 Nc Epatante 4/5One £2 win Trixie = £8 poss return of £40.50
Other bets:
12.55 Nc Getaround £1 win at 11/2
1.30 Nc Aye Aye Charlie £2 win at 5/2
3.15 Nc Whatmore £2 win at 11/4
3.00 Nb Secret Investor £1 win at 8/1Total stakes = £20
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Two winners in my Trixie. The double paid £8.10 so I got my money back. Net win of 10p so the balance c/fwd is £616.04 (Bank £800). The same goes for my top rated multiples and there on going balance is - £7.65
Get around won at 10/1 but Betfair Sportsbook only paid me out at my stakes price of 11/2. I have been trying to get hold of them to query this but their "message us" facility just whirls round and round displaying help is on its way and does not load. The only reason I bet with them is primarily for BOG prices as Bet365 has cut me off from this. I think that Betfair help is very very poor. Whenever I have a query with them they have never amended a result in my favour.
Anyway I'll post up the win as £6.50 together with the win on Gunsight Ridge of £13.50 = £20 v £12 outlay so a profit of £8. My singles balance c/fwd is now £146.18 (Bank £400)
At least I didn't lose today and though the thought of choosing many short priced favourites for my Trixies in the future worries me a little I am going to persevere with it throughout out December and hopefully will find it a profitable exercise to continue into the new year.
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13 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:
Sometimes it's good to be bold! Hope you can find some winners this weekend ?
In the spirit of Graham I will be putting up my own version of his type of accumulator selections from today. These are inevitably short priced favourites. I don't know how they will get on or if they will be profitable in the long run but many thanks for your welcome good wishes
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8 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:
Nice prices for people to jump on. Not often I look at them but heard mentioned they show consistent profit.
Well Chris, not ever at these kind of prices as far as I'm aware. This looks like a bookies benefit list of selections to me
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I was stunned this morning to see the selections that have been posted up under "Horse Racing Tips" Accumulator section. 13/2,11/2 and 4/1!! Looks to be very bold and cavalier. Seems a bit strange when the shorter priced versions have yielded a treble and a double in the past two days. This doesn't look right to me ?
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18 hours ago, The Brigadier said:
One of National Hunt’s best Saturday’s is nearly upon us with the Newbury Ladbroke Trophy meeting at Newbury where with no rain forecast the ground is likely to ride unseasonably good for the time of year.
We start the card with the 12.10 and a decent Mares listed hurdle where the most likely winner is Mrs Hyde who took the scalp of Verdana Blue at Wetherby and certainly won’t mind conditions. I’m not entirely convinced Verdana Blue is as good as she once was and with Mrs Hyde carrying a penalty I’ll be looking for some each way value elsewhere. Down at the bottom of the card is the Irish challenger POLITESSE, trained by Mrs Lorna Fowler and ridden by Robbie Power she’s smart having won a bumper, novice hurdle and running a highly promising 5th in a Grade 3 hurdle on her re-appearance where but for a bad blunder would have been placed. She’ll do for me each way against the likely favourite.
POLITESSE 1 point each way @ 4/1betvictor
Kalooki and Next Destination look the pair to concentrate in the 12.40 and with Kalooki having had the experience of winning at the track three weeks ago (2nd won since) I just favour over Next Destination who makes his fencing debut here but has some excellent hurdle form to his name. Hold That Note wouldn’t be far behind the big two and cant be easily dismissed.
KALOOKI 1 point win @ 11/4 betvictor
The 1.15 looks wide open with many having claims. JP McManus runs four here with perhaps Kapcorse being the most interesting having won this event by 10 lengths two years ago off of a 10lb lower mark but he has a 644 day absence to overcome. Court Master appeals each way – he ran credibly in a decent novice handicap chase at the course three weeks ago and is at the right end of the handicap. Plenty of others can be given a chance but I’ll stick with Michael Scudamore’s 7 year old.
COURT MASTER ½ point each way @ 9/1 betfred
One horse stands out in the next race – the 2m4f118yds handicap hurdle- Tom Lacey’s improver Tea Clipper who won cosily at Chepstow 7 weeks ago and despite a 7lb rise bounces off of good ground and will be hard to beat. Runner up to him at Chepstow that day was the Skelton’s Flash the Steel who re-opposes on 4lb better terms for a 2 1/4l beating so can make the frame. Nicky Henderson runs three with Champagne Platinum the most interesting. He blatantly failed to stay when last seen and he didn’t really convince last season as a chaser so back over the smaller obstacles here could be in his favour. On The Wild Side is a novice in his first handicap for Dr Newland and is also espected but for me it’s all about Tea Clipper on his favoured ground.
TEA CLIPPER 2 points win @ 11/4 bet365
The 2.25 will always be known as the Gerry Feilden despite been re-named by sponsors Ladbrokes. Nicky Henderson ran Epatante in this last year when she blew the opposition away and ended up winning the Xmas Hurdle & Champion Hurdle so his representative Maries Rock has something to live up to here. She is unbeaten in a bumper and two novice hurdles impressing each time and was touted as a genuine Mares hurdle contender before her setback, this is what her trainer had to say about her in recent Racing Post Trainer file “She missed her big day in the mares' novice at Cheltenham after a stress fracture, which wasn't serious. She's summered well, has an enormous engine and is exciting. We've tinkered with her soft palate and hopefully she's top class”. No wonder why she’s been backed from as big as 4/1 at the 5 day declaration stage to her current odds of 6/4. She’ll be hard to beat off of 141 which incidentally is 3lb higher than Epatante ran off in this race last year. There’s some lovely animals in opposition mind including Botox Has a winner at Cheltenham already this season, Sebastopol who’s held in high regard by his trainer Tom Lacey, Milkwood who’s 4th in the Welsh Champion Hurdle looks a very good piece of form and Thyme White who’s been put up 11lb for his Chepstow romp. An outsider who looks overpriced is Seamus Mullins’ The Pink’n. She was 4l 2nd to Botox Has at Cheltenham and is now 4lb better off and then 3l behind Thyme White at Chepstow and now 5lb better off. Both Botox Has and Thyme White are priced around the 6/1 mark whilst The Pink’n is over three times the price a around the 20/1 mark. I’ll play Maries Rock to win and The Pink’n small ew.
MARIES ROCK (below) 2 points win @ 7/4 betvictor
THE PINK’N ½ point each way @ 22/1 betvictor
I’ve dealt with the Ladbrokes Trophy earlier in the week and with the ground as predicted I’m happy enough to be on Secret Investor at 16/1 and The Black Op at 8/1. If you like Secret Investor mind you have to have an interest in Alan King’s Potterman who chased Secret Investor home at Chepstow and was just touched off in the Badger Beers Chase at Wincanton since. It’s a cracking race and lets just hope all 18 come back safely. One thing I would add is to shop around for the best place terms as most firms will be paying enhanced place terms.
SECRET INVESTOR 1point e/w @ 16/1 (advised on Monday)
BLACK OP 1point ew @ 8/1 (advised on Monday)
POTTERMAN ½ point each way @ 20/1 betvictor
The finale is the 3.35, a handicap chase for The Jim Joel Memorial Chase Trophy. Top weight Moonlighter ran a stormer on his re-appearance when running Graneteen a close 2nd in the Haldon Gold Cup. The winner is set to take on the best 2 milers in the land next weekend at Sandown and despite a 5lb weight rise he should run well. Western Miller was a long way back in 2nd behind the rejuvenated Rouge Vif at Cheltenham last time whilst Ibleo ran a close 2nd at Ascot first time out but all his form is on very soft ground so it’s anyone’s guess how he’ll handle livelier conditions here. A bit of value for me can be had with the Philip Hobb’s trained Zanza who ran here three times as a hurdler winning twice and finishing a close up 6th in last season’s Betfair Hurdle. He’s only had the two runs this season over fences but both times behind some decent types (2nd to Allmankind at Warwick last time) and should be ready too strike now with the Hobbs team in better form than earlier in the season.
ZANZA 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365
Good luck with your selections sir.
I was stunned this morning to see the selections that have been posted up under your "Horse Racing Tips" section. 13/2,11/2 and 4/1!! Doesn't sound like you. Looks to be very bold and cavalier. Seems a bit strange when the shorter priced versions have yielded a treble and a double in the past two days
- The Brigadier and MCLARKE
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Nearly didn't bother with a Trixie today but finally found some possibilities at Doncaster
11.55 Don Yccs Portocervo 5/2
12.25 Don French Paradoxe £2 win at 4/1
2.35 Don Jean Genie £2 win at 11/4One £1 win Trixie = £4 = Poss return of £104.81
Other win bets:
12.45 Nb No bet but the Sporting press seem to point to Anemoi saying that Eritage was just a lucky winner last time out. I'll pass
2.25 Nb sully D'Or AA (what a complicated name) £1 win at 5/1
2.25 Nb San Benedeto £1 win at 8/13.00 Nb Paisley Park £2 win at 5.10 = £8.04 (hope he doesn't give me an irregular heart beat)
12.55 Don Ah Well £1 win at 8/1
1.25 Don Pogue £1 win at 4/1
2.00 Don Ballyfarsson 50p win at 66/1
2.00 Don Dieu Bennisse 50p win at 20/1Multiples = £4
Singles = £11
Total stakes £15
Good luck to all those having a bet today. Newbury looks to be a very tricky proposition today
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I had a bad feeling about today's racing and I was right. I had two seconds but as I don't back each way got no returns.
Multiples = a loss of £4 c/fwd balance £615.94 (Bank £800). Top rated Multiples - £4 so a c/fwd loss of £7.75
Singles, a whopping loss of £11 sinks my balance to £138.18 (£400 Bank)
Five meetings tomorrow in the UK. Four over the jumps and one All weather. Some class action at Newcastle and Newbury so fingers crossed I can find some good selections
- Villa Chris and Wildgarden
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2.00 Don Ballyfarsoon one point win at 66/1 with bet365
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7.00 Chelm Pioneering one point win at 66/1 with Bet365
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One Trixie today for £1 = £4 with a possible return of £114.25
1.11 Taun Nobel Joshua 4/1
1.50 Sou Young John 9/4
2.50 Geography Teacher (£1.50 win at 3/1)Total multiples £4.00
Total win bets £1.50
= Total stakes £5.50
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The horse I felt most confident about ran a stinker. Anyway, two winners paid a double of £16.25. Hence the profit was £12.25. My Multiples balance c/fwd is now £619.94 (Bank £800). The second multiples tally after the win double is now - £3.75 c/fwd
The singles balance after a £1.50 loss is £149.18 (Bank £400)
Some quality racing at Newbury tomorrow, I will focus on these for my Trixie tomorrow. Who knows, the better class beasts may out perform my class 6 animals I picked today. The problem with the higher class animals is that the races tend to be more competitive which means that there are quite often surprise results.
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2 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:
My picks are either system based or watching how horse ran last several races and ones I follow after some misfortune I pick up on in race like that I'm available today value seems to come from that long term. Heavily backed favourites can also be market manipulation false favourites so hard to judge sometimes ?
I think that @Alley Cat Glover makes his money by watching re-run races over and again but I'm not sure. Takes a lot of time though
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1 hour ago, Wildgarden said:
Less favoured are probably the better value... Problem with RPR and time form is everyone had that information... Need information not everyone has or looks at for value.
I don't disagree but quite often the top RPR/Timeform rating selection can be at long odds over 20/1. Not sure that this makes the horse a value bet? Possibly if a horse is favourite in the market and it is top rated then just as a horse running for a top yard or one that has a top class jockey on it for the first time can cause lots of extra cash to go on it may be a significant factor but I really am not sure that it all this pans out in the long run. The betting markets are quite complex areas to predict where and what is causing a horse to be favourite. More importantly, one still doesn't know if one is going to get a run for one's money. As Jenny Pitman once said "It doesn't matter how much money you put on a horse, it won't make it run any faster".
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1 hour ago, The Brigadier said:
well done with Joke Dancer - bit of a sweat mind !!
Many thanks. Haha, a short head is a bit longer than a nose. I find it very annoying that I am basing my selections around top Timeform and RPR ratings alongside strong market support only to find that the less favoured horses in the market possibly produce the best results.
It's early days with it though.
Racing Chat Monday 30 November
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
I believe that it was me who initiated the change in the rules to allow a prize for the most winners. It was supported by a lot of long time members and Graham obliged us with the new prize. As I pointed out to Graham, before the prize was brought into being that it didn't seem worthwhile to me to put what I truly thought was the best bet of the day because someone would always come along and put up a winning outsider. This of course is not to say that a long shot is not someone's best bet of the day. I'm sure that if one looks back over the years one will find a few regular winners of the competition by using such a strategy which kind of justifies the make up of the competition as it is.
However, I do feel that if one makes adjustments to the prize money then Punters Lounge Tipsters could get the best of both worlds.
At the moment the prize makeup is 1st £60, 2nd £30, 3rd £20 and fourth £10. The tipster with the most winners and showing at least a £10 profit gets a prize of £20. The total pot is £140. if the prize make up was changed to 1st £60, 2nd £20 and 3rd £10 and the fourth prize was dropped then this would allow a prize of £50 to the punter who had the most winners and showed a profit of at least £10. This may encourage more tipsters to select what they truly believe to be their best bet of the day whilst still handsomely rewarding the outright winner with the most profit as well. In this way Punters Lounge does not have pay out any more prize money each month.
Just a thought