The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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Lovely price for Hackberry too, went into 5/4 favourite ?
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4 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:
Had 12-1 last night before all the non runners brought it down lol
Well done. How much did you suffer in the way of deductions if you don't mind me asking?
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5 hours ago, Trotter said:
5.15 Southwell - Gabrial The Devil at 11/2
I was on Samovar yesterday (won) and he's turning out again today over the same CD in a small field handicap and he is the short priced favourite, currently 6/4
But I think he can opposed today ....... double penalty in a Class 4. The race he won yesterday was a Class 6. Also I think he needs a poor race to win at 6 furlongs ....... he was hanging on for the line yesterday and I think he's better at 5f unless they find him a really easy race at 6f
The one I like is decent odds ....... Gabrial The Devil at 11/2, currently 4th in te market out of the five runners
Last two wins off todays mark, back down to his winning trip after a couple of runs at 7f which he's never won at, back to Class 4 after a couple of runs in Class 2 and Class 3
Main doubt ..... his record on the AW is not great but then he's not run on it very often and the yard is in good nick
Hi Trotter,
Just made some money on your selection. Well done. Compensates for me being shafted on Snookered earlier on. I didn't realise that Pull Green was a non runner and got stuffed for a 25p deduction. Glad you were around to save me ?
- Wildgarden and Trotter
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14 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
2.10 Nc Snookered one point win at 4/1 with Bet365
I hope that @calva decoyhas inspired Brian Ellison to do a repeat of last year.
Although this one won I got hit with a 25p deduction because Pull Green was a non runner. Hope this helps @MCLARKEfor the figures
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I was initially pleased when I saw so many non handicap races to choose selections from today. However, when I consider that in the main punters are having to juggle flat form against hurdles and chase form it occurs to me that this is a great opportunity for the bookies to make a lot of money. This being so I have limited myself to possibly two main bets today.
I have already backed Snookered in the 2.10 at Newcastle £3.20 at 4/1 (my PL Nap). It looks to have a decent chance of winning this race and has now been backed into 9/4 best price (wouldn't have played at that price)
I think I have missed the boat in trying to get £3.20 at 4.2 about Divas Mix in the 11.50 at Lingfield. I will leave the bet open on the Betfair Exchange in the hope that money comes for the Fergal O'Brien trained City Derby. This horse was favourite to win its last race and was brought down. I am not so sure that it would have won had it not fallen so the Henderson horse looks well worth taking a chance on today.
I think that it could pay for punters to focus on the traditional stables that do well in bumpers rather than try and speculate on how hurdlers and chasers who are in good form will perform in what is essentially a flat race
Good luck to all whatever you do but I strongly suggest keeping stakes to a minimum today.
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Well my price got matched at 4.2 on Divas Mix and of course it got beat and came second. But as I am sure @richard-westwoodwould agree is if one cant 3/1 about a horse when it appears to have only one other main rival is a good deal. Well done to Fergal O'Brien and Paddy Brennan
In my other race, the price of Snookered has shortened so much that I felt compelled to trade out of the bet. Even more beneficial to my betting bank I have layed £6.54 at 2.26 which gives me a liability of £8.24 should the horse win. On the other hand I will receive a return of £16 should the horse win with Bet 365. Hence, I get my total outlay of the day back of £6.41 should the horse lose and alternatively win £16 - £8.24 = £7.76 profit should the horse win. A very cosy position to be in @calva decoythough I respect anyone's wishes to let the bet ride
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3 hours ago, calva decoy said:
Shhh ? I got 9/2 with your tip at 4.30 bet365 , prices are tumbling ?
And of course one can now trade out of the bet (not that I will) and take a profit
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2.10 Nc Snookered one point win at 4/1 with Bet365
I hope that @calva decoyhas inspired Brian Ellison to do a repeat of last year.
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12.58 Ffos No bet for me in this race as Sandymount Road is 10/11. The horse has seconditis and the pundits are worried about the drop in distance. I am not so concerned about that as I feel it will be OK at 2 miles. I don't believe the hype about Windswept Girl either. The mare has to prove herself
3.15 Sou I have had £2 to win on Susie Javea at 9.2 = poss profit of £16.07. The best price about Momtalk is now 4/5. On paper at least Zahirah should beat it because of Miomtalk's penalty. The only problem is that this mare ran a strange race last time. Anyway it could improve for the run and turn the tables so I'll take my chances that Susie Javea could improve and win
3.58 Ffos. The market has gone for Onethreefivenotout. Paul Nichols doesn't have a staggering record in bumpers at the track so I have had a £2 win bet at 6.00 with Avietosea and £2 win at 7.00 with Super Six. Both penalised for their wins but at least they have proved that they can win. Should be exciting to watch
4.55 Wolv Stanley Baldwin looks to have a good chance of winning this. Its price has drifted out to 11/4 in some places from 2/1 last night. It also has two very live contenders that could beat it. This being so I have had £1 win at 9/1 on the William Haggas runner Alto Volante with Tom Marquand aboard. The horse ran a shocker when 8/11 favourite at Lingfield on its debut. This just can't be its true running. Although the trainer hasn't had a winner in the past 14 days he does have an excellent record at this track. I'll take a chance with a very small bet that the horse can improve to win.
Hence I haven't piled in on any favourites as they don't seem to be of value.
Total outlay today is £7.00
Good luck to all playing today
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GRRRRRRRRR once again beaten by half a length with my Nap selection Susie Javea. Never mind at least Alto Volante came good for me with Tom Marquand aboard. I had £1 at 9/1. Hence with Fffos Las abandoned my stakes were £3 and a return of £10 - a £7 profit. The Balance now c/fwd is £533.88 (£500 Bank)
Two racecards tomorrow full of NHF non handicaps. Looks like I have a lot of studying to do
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3.15 Sou Susie Javea one point win at 7/1 with Betfair
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5.45 Kem Tampere £4.20 at 4.2 (matched at 5.40) Loads of money for Hollie Doyle's horse, trading odds on in some places. Can't see it myself. Perhaps I will after the race, haha
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I feel a bit unlucky with Gulliver being beaten half a length by the favourite; however that's racing for you. Played the Tampere race wrong. Obviously should either not played if scared by the strong market support or had my small bet on Tampere and covered it with an insurance on the jolly old favourite. I got shafted by the Hollie Doyle favourite earlier Jeanette May being backed into 11/8 favurite and finishing 3rd. Hence when I backes her I got stuffed and when I went against her I got stuffed again ?
A few races to look at tomorrow, a couple with the favourites' odds edging towards 2/1. Not many non handicap races tomorrow though
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11 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
Some people might be interested to see how close they came, I would be reasonably happy if I came in the top half.
Maybe it would be helpful to state that only the last eight go forward into the second round, even though this is stated in the rules
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3.40 Km Jeanett May Hollie Doyle aboard) £5.30win at 3.45 = Poss win of £12.73
6.45 Km Gulliver £2.30 win at 7.8 = poss return of £15.33. Fascinating race where Aberama Gold is easy to back and Tranchee with the red hot Richard Kingscote in the saddle. I reckon that Gulliver is just as a good bet as anything else running in the race.
Wasted £4.20 earlier on Egostistic What a crap run for my money
£11.80 total singles bets so far so no fortune maker if one of the remaining two win
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3.40 Km Jeanette May one point win at 9/4 with Bet365
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Many thanks for the update @MCLARKE it seems a bit strange to me to see 18 entrants at the qualifying stage that is reduced to 8. What is the point in showing another 10 who don't seem to have a hope in continuing in the KO cup?
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20 minutes ago, Astleavista said:
The rules state that 8 qualify for the KO stage, 1v8, 2v7 etc. On that basis you will be up against Saddlesore.
Ken
Many thanks. It will be great if @MCLARKE can confirm the pairings though
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Just wondering when the pairings will be announced?
Looks like I may be up against @PercyPwhich seems very tricky for me to play as he picked EW chances in the first round. Seems to be a good strategy so I will have to think about this one very hard
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Posted 4 hours ago
Not a lot of quailty racing in the non handicap races today.
Last night I took a bet of £7 to win at 6/4 about La Tihaty in the 1.10 at Lingfield. It has now been smashed into 5/6 in the betting market. This is Roger Varian's horse and the trainer has a good record at this track. I have been caught out at least a couple of times in backing a horse on the strength of just one run, so I'll wait and see what happens. Melody Of Life has drifted from 11/8 to 2/1 from the overnight position. Even at this price an insurance bet doesn't look worthwhile. I have had a small bet of £2.50 to win on Escapement at 5/1 just in case this one sprouts wings for Richard Kingscote who is in outstanding form at present
The only other selection I could find was Radrizzani in the 6.10 at Wolves. This horse is way ahead on ratings, however, it flopped last time when favourite so one has to keep the faith with it. I'd rather keep my money in my betting bank. It looks as though it has at least two worthwhile live contenders so I am not backing it.
Good luck to the brave people playing today
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At least La Tihaty did the business for me today. Outlay £9.50 on two horses and return £17.50 = a £9 profit
The balance is now £541.88 (Bank £500)
There is a class 2 non handicap event tomorrow at 6.45 Kempton. The favourite is Aberama Gold. Bet365 is brave offering it 9/4. I won't bite atm as I haven't had to weigh it up yet. Looks good on paper though
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38 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:
You're not alone...there is another Tuesday thread ?
Didn't see it. How is it listed. I do wish members would stick to the standard "racing chat" format so it is easy to find
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I rather feel that I'm the last man standing today
I fully understand with the new national lockdown coming into force.
The powers that be should not have allowed the schools, colleges and universities to go back in September. I wonder if they feel any guilt about all the increased casualties of and loss of life to Covid 19 since?
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1.10 Lin La Tihaty one point win at 5/6 with Bet365 (kicking myself for not putting it up last night when its price changed from 6/4 to 11//8)
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Not a lot of quailty racing in the non handicap races today.
Last night I took a bet of £7 to win at 6/4 about La Tihaty in the 1.10 at Lingfield. It has now been smashed into 5/6 in the betting market. This is Roger Varian's horse and the trainer has a good record at this track. I have been caught out at least a couple of times in backing a horse on the strength of just one run, so I'll wait and see what happens. Melody Of Life has drifted from 11/8 to 2/1 from the overnight position. Even at this price an insurance bet doesn't look worthwhile. I have had a small bet of £2.50 to win on Escapement at 5/1 just in case this one sprouts wings for Richard Kingscote who is in outstanding form at present
The only other selection I could find was Radrizzani in the 6.10 at Wolves. This horse is way ahead on ratings, however, it flopped last time when favourite so one has to keep the faith with it. I'd rather keep my money in my betting bank. It looks as though it has at least two worthwhile live contenders so I am not backing it.
Good luck to the brave people playing today
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1 hour ago, Trotter said:
Well ....... relative weights are only of importance in handicaps
This isn't a handicap and neither was his first run...... so the weights are determined by the Race Conditions
If you're using the Racing Post you can choose to have the Race Conditions shown on the card which might be useful to read
Also if you're using the Post note this .......
On the race card it shows the allotted weight before any riders allowances are taken off ....... so it shows 11.5 but with the riders allowance he will actually carry 10-9 today
On the horses form page the weight it shows is the weight after the riders allowance is taken off ........ so for his last run it shows 10-4 so his allotted weight would have been 11.0
Many thanks. All a bit confusing to me
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Well, not a great deal on offer today in the non handicaps
I was fascinated to see in the 3.25 at Fakenham that Tiny Tantrum has over a stone more in weight than on its last run. The 10lbs claimer allowance doesn't count as it is the same rider who rode it last time. On the other hand Harde Fashion is only carrying 4lbs more than on its last effort. I don't understand this discrepancy in the weights. Perhaps @Trotter can come to my aid. Anyway I'm not playing as there are a few others with what looks to be good chances.
I have had a bet in the 3.50 at Wolvs with £3.50 on Kyllukey at 7/2 with Richard Kingscote aboard. It has drifted from 5/2 overnight but I think that it should beat Dubai Paradise and I don't see that Captain Ryan is as good as it was last year.
In the 6.20 at Wolves I have had £6 at 3.47 on Shimmering Dawn which seems a good price. Again this is a drifter as the media and the market have plumped for Amniarix. Good luck to that one if it wins but I'll stick with the horse that should win at the weights.
Finally I have gone for Big Kitty in the 6.50 at Wolves with Ben Curtis aboard £4 win at 11/4 last night . The market has gone for Hollie Doyle's horse Angel Mill which I believe is too short
Hence, I have chosen drifters today, however, you never know the market can always change in the run up to post time.
Total outlay to day is £13.50
Good luck to all sailing in the races today
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A complete washout for me today. I had another £2 on Big Kitty So my loss for the day was £15.50. My only regret was that I didn't have a cover win bet on Amniarix (RichardKingscote in flying form with three winners). I will do the cover bet in future when I think that I am betting on a two horse race. I had no qualms about not doing so on Hollie Doyle's horse Angel Mill as I simply did not fancy it despite all the market hype. My balance has now been reduced to £533.88 (£500 Bank)
Many thanks to @Trotterfor pointing out the actual weight to be carried by Tiny Tantrum earlier, plus also to look at the race conditions regarding weights and penalties. I will look out for jockeys with allowances that have to be deducted from the advertised weight on race cards in future in my non-handicap races.
Only two meetings tomorrow in the UK. Two class 5 races and three Class 6 races. No future stars on show for my non handicap races tomorrow I fear.
Racing Chat, Friday 8th January
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Yes. A net price of around 13/2 for a 4/1 winner seems a very good return. Well done