The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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14 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
Yes I agree with mcclarke above .....I rate on average 3 to 4 races a day when I have time but sometimes I have no bets purely because the value isnt there .....if the race looks messy or is too wide open and the horses are all bunched around 3/1 to 6/1 ...then it's better to pass .....a lot of the horses I back are twice the price they should be so if you keep backing horses like that your always gonna come out on top in the long run I.e ...you can have 8 straight losers at 10pts ...-80 ....but if your next horse wins at 12/1 your in happy town .......value is a big factor whatever system you use but making your own ratings just makes value bets that bit easier to find......and the more ....technical your rating the less likely anyone else will know what your seeing .....sometimes I plug numbers into the computer and think what the hell have you picked that for ??....its only when I dig a bit deeper that I realise theres some sort of hidden angle ...big weight drop ....good performance finishing 7th etc ....behind it .....ratings can show that whereas it might be missed by just browsing the form as most people do .....its an "angle"
Hi RIchard,
Interesting that you rate on average 3 - 4 races a day. How do you choose your races; I'm sure that when I have read your posts that you quite often mention that the race in question is a "tricky" kind of race? Hence, why not focus on "easier" races? Is it because the value just isn't there?
I understand the concept of "value" however, proving it against a set criteria seems to me to be very difficult. I am wondering how you can conclude that a horse is twice the price that it should be? Is it a horse whose rating(s) is much higher than any other horse in the race or is there some other factor(s) involved?
Just interested that's all
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17 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
I
Therein may be the problem, if the ratings are readily available to you then they are also readily available to everybody. Therefore plenty of people will be using them as part of their selection process and this will bring down the odds of the selections. It will therefore be very difficult to make a profit by using these ratings.
I seem to remember from when I used to read the racing post that the RPR top rated produced a loss at SP of about 8% which was roughly the same as for favourites which would indicate that that the market takes account of these ratings.
I think the only way to be successful is to find influencing factors that the market does not take account of. This may well require calculating your own ratings or using ratings that are not so readily available. Then it is vital that you search out the best odds available.
Hi M, thanks for your input. I am not so sure that the Racing Post's RPR or Timeform's ratings necessarily influence the shortening of prices. I have seen in the past that horses with big reputations and those coming from top yards and also of course horses with top jockey bookings have their prices slashed, especially where a jockey has a couple of wins on the day. The above ratings include plenty of outsiders from both camps so any one looking at them on any day's racing will be just as confused as I have been in the past as to whether they represent a pot of gold. As explained previously I am using these ratings alongside prominent market positions for my selections. I am also taking into account in form top jockey and apprentice bookings. I will just have to see how it goes. I couldn't find many today with my favoured jockey's aboard so I left it.
Also, I think it seems a bit unfair to conclude that RPR's showed a loss when top selections were compared with SP. No wise punter ever accepts SP for their bets so I feel that your results should have been calculated at BOG or the very least Betfair SP. Recently, @Valiant Thor did some calculations on the top RPR's and he concluded that there was some scope to make money by using them.
Just some thoughts on your comments; I hope that you are keeping well
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7.35 Nc My Names Nipper (KS) one point win at 28/1 with Bet365
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9 hours ago, Fader said:
Nov 4th table :
Andellio needs a drugs test as he hits another 14/1 to have a £49 profit after day 4. Marmalade is the only person left to have 4 wins from 4. "Most Winners" table updated every 5th day.
Haha, @andellio has added another 11/1 winner today on the William Buick ride at Kempton. Excellent tipping
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12 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
Always a fascinating subject and open to so much interpretation ......I think definately you need a performance and speed base .. rpr and timeform are perfectly ok ....as your results show....you could just use that and youd get a few winners I'm sure but think about it logically .....is that everything ???......you want a horse that has form over today's distance .....if all a horses form is over 7f and today's is 8f then the rating needs to reflect that .....class as you mentioned is a big factor .....I find that if the race is close near the end I.e 3 horses level in last furlong ...the classier horses just "find more " ... when push comes to shove ....( class ) ......
Even further and probably the biggest factor is weight diff has an effect on all factors ....performance...speed and class ....if you add weight your ratings are going to change from last time and that's the difficult bit that normally requires computer power ......overall you want to make the most realistic guess of what the horse can do ...."today" ...under today's conditions but you've got a good start and it will only help your betting for sure ....and tbh I find it fun crunching numbers and rating races ....it relaxes me in a strange way lol
Very many thanks for your input. I will bear the factors you mention in mind over the coming weeks
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6.30 Km Captain Claret (GD5) (RPR) (Timeform 2nd top rated) One point win at 11/1 with betfair
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BASING ONE'S BETS ON HORSE RATINGS
Oddly enough I have up to now resisted using ratings as a basis for my horse racing selections in the past as they seem to either conflict with one and another or just didn't seem to make sense.
However, with my £400 singles betting bank dwindling down to around £140 I thought that I needed to change the basis of my selections. In truth I have probably squandered most of the money on outsiders that failed to win.
Anyway, I have decide to have a go using ratings as a basis of my selections as opposed to sifting through expert selections alongside market preferences.
This seemed to work out OK yesterday and today seems Ok too with Dell' Arca winning for me at 8/1 today top rated with Timeform and RPR
It seems to me that most contributors on this site who make money use ratings apart from others who spend ages watching previously run races so as to get an idea about which horse will win a race.
I am not about to get into the realms of studying and producing my own ratings but instead will use what is readily available to me.
I am using Racing Post Ratings (RPR) and Timeform ratings. I do not suscribe to the Racing Post nor Timeform and only use what is there for us all to see. With TImeform ratings I use a plugin on Google chrome to get the Timeform ratings (Graham, kindly found this for me)
My two twists on using both these ratings is that I am favouring those which highlight well fancied runners, preferably favourites at odds of 2/1 plus and also take account of in form/popular jockeys who are riding them.
I don't know if anyone knows about the idiosynchrasy's of either the RPR or TImeform or whether there is any guide as to how these are calculated as this may be useful to me? Yesterday, it occurred to me that the RPR may be overly influenced by a most recent poor performance as Laurentia won the 4.00 at Lingfield with -8 on RPR ratings when Timeform had the horse close to the top seemingly ignoring the horse's most recent poor run.
Also, what I find confusing is the ranking of horses and the numerical difference in the top rated horse and those beneath. For example I found a race yesterday where RPR had the same figure for three top rated and then the next two horses had the next lowest figure. Hence, I had five horses within the top two rated figures. Although I can determine which horse is the RPR selection as I use Napchecker which indicates this I decided that I would have to look at the top three and disregard the the next two which were second rated. I am not sure how many I should be looking at to be worthy of consideration with regard to ratings. Should it be just the top one or two or three or four, I don't know?
I realise that I could just go with either the top RPR or Timeform rating along with the shortest market position plus a very good jockey booking but I thought it may add grist to the mill to include or exclude ratings below two, three or four lower from the alternative ratings selection. Any thoughts?
I know that @richard-westwoodalso uses a class rating so maybe I could build that in by ensuring that a horse has won in the same or a higher class.
Fascinating stuff
Any ideas are most welcome
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25 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
Dell arca wins nicely .....about 50pts returned
Well done Richard; I backed it too. Top rated on both RPR and Timeform; pity I didn't put it in my Trixie instead of a lousy 2/1 favourite where a 100/1 shot won.
I am writing up a comment on General Racing chit chat today regarding ratings and would appreciate your thoughts in addition to those already mentioned to @Valiant Thor on 27/10/20 which I found very interesting
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One Trixie today
1.45 Sed Cash Again 2/1
2.40 M/R Just So Cool 7/2 (£2 win at 4/1)
3.15 M/R Project Mars 3/1 (£2 win at 3/1)One £1 Trixie at £1 = £4 = poss return of £97.50
2.30 Nb Dell Arca £1 win at 8/1
3.05 Nb Azzerti £1 win at 7/1
3.05 Nb Morning Vicar £1 win at 11/4 (Ins Bet)Total multiples = £4
Total Singles = £7
Total bets = £11
Poss back later with AW selections
Hoorahh that UK racing is not included in lockdown
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Anyone watching the 3.15 at Market Rasen would have thought that Project Mars would have won the race, it traded for £778 at 1.12. Anyway not to be as it just ran out of steam and got passed by two other horses. Another £4 loss and the c/fwd balance is now £621.69 (£800 Bank)
The singles fared better with two winners and an insurance bet winning too. Dell' Arca was top rated by Timeform and top RPR so that was a lovely win. £7 outlay v a return of £22.75 results in a net profit of £15.75 on the day. The balance c/fwd is now £158.24 (Bank £400)
Two day's running with wins using the Timeform and RPR as a basis for my bets looks good. Let's hope it isn't a fluke?
It's a pity that Kempton was abandoned earlier because of fog, William Buick had some good rides and may have got close to Oisin Murphy for the title. Looks like that tomorrow's and Saturday's rides won't be enough. However, he will give it his best shot I'm sure
Three over the jumps and one All weather in the UK tomorrow, though the going at Hexam is Heavy so I may not look at it until I am sure that the meeting goes ahead.
Nighty night
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3.50 Muss Tara Kay one point win at 20/1 with Bet365
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One Trixie today:
12.30 Lin Desert Land 5/2 (£2 win at 11/4)
1.50 Muss Ratfacemcdiougal 2/1
2.00 Lin Newyorkstateofmind (£2 win at 4/1One £1 Trixie = £4 poss return of £95.50
Other bet:
2.20 Muss Court Jurado (BH) £2 win at 9/2
Total multiples = £4
Total win bets = £6
Total stakes = £10
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Well at least a win double today and one singles win.
Multiples = -£4 + £15 = + £11. The Balance c/fwd is £625.69 (Bank £800)
Singles = - £6 + £10 = + £4. The balance c/fwd is now £142.49 (Bank £400)
Three over the jumps and two all weather race meetings in the UK tomorrow; yippee, not in lockdown.
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One Trixie today (some prices smashed largely because of non runners
1.50 Km Mini Milk (£2 win at 4/1)
3.30 Km Delicate Kiss £2.70 win at 11/4 = £10.20)
4.50 Wolv Highest Ambition (BC) 15/8 (yukk)£1 win Trixie at £1 = £4 v poss return of £84.02
multiples = £4
Singles = £4.70
Total stakes £8.70
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Two beaten by short margins in my multiples so a loss of £4 incurred. The balance C/fwd is now £614.69 (Bank £800)
Both singles lost so £4.70 sent to money heaven. The balance c.fwd is now £138.48 (Bank £400)
One over the jumps, two all weather and one on the flat in the UK tomorrow
Luckily UK racing will be spared the second lockdown ?
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14 hours ago, ipswich45 said:
13.50 Kempton - 4 Mini Milk 5/1 William Hill
In what appears to be a open contest you could make a case for a few including Takeonefortheteam who is a 4 time C&D wineer including 5 days ago but does have a penalty to carry for the recent success and could be vunerable, Beau Geste has 2 wins from 6 this year finishing 4th last time out could be there or thereabouts, however selection is Mini Milk who is a C&D winner and 1 win from 3 races this year 2nd over C&D 13 days ago and 1st time tongue strap is applied
15.20 Hereford - 6. Wisecracker 8/1 William Hill
Last years winner appears again in this time round but is up 8lbs from that effort, sole win to date however retains Bryony in the saddle from 12 months ago, Wisecracker has had wind surgery following last run at Warwick which was encouraging
17.05 Kempton - 1 Sky Defender 5/2 William Hill
Sky Defender has 3 wins this year including 1 at Kempton finished 2nd at Hoppengarten (Germany) in a group 3 last month and looks the best on paper in this 6 horse race, also to note is Victory Chime C&D winner and has 8 wins from 20 starts won last time on heavy ground at Pontefract in a 7 runner contest but is up 6lbs for that effortJust wondering why you haven't mentioned Shearer in the 4.25 at Hereford here as it is your nap of the day?
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2.55 Hunt Simply Lucky (DM3) one point win at 66/1 with Betfair
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One Trixie today:
2.40 Carl Imperial Aura 6/4 (Napped 7 times!) (No win or lay bet)
3.27 Hunt West To Cross Gales (CL7) £2 win at 11/2 (Ins lay at 1.95, £10.20)
3.45 Carl The Very First Time (HS) £2 win at 10/3 (Ins Lay at 1.95 £8.50)One £1 win Trixie = £4 v Poss Return £125.67
Other bets:
2.05 Carl Catchmeifyoucan (SQ 10%, winner yesterday) £1.20 win at 8/1 = £10.80
small bets on donkeys:
2.22 Hunt Little Stevie 33p win at 33/1
2.55 Hunt Simply Lucky 33p win at 66/1
3.27 Hunt Arboratum 34p win at 33/1
Total multiples = £4
Total singles = £6.20
= Total stakes £10.20
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Just one winner in the Trixie so a loss of £4. The balance is now £618.69 (Bank £800)
No luck with the singles either so a loss of £6.20. The balance is now £143.19 (Bank £400)
Two over the jumps and two all weather tomorrow in the UK. Looks as though the meetings will go ahead so we all have a good chance to lose more money. Have a good night's rest everyone
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One Trixie today at Newmarket:
12.55 Side Shot (FD) £2 win at 5/2
1.30 Galactic Glow (WB) £2 win at 9/2
2.05 Mystery Angel (FD) £2 win at 7/21 x £1 win Trixie = £4 poss return of £146.37
Total multiples = £4
Total singles stakes = £6
Total stakes = £10
Good luck to all punters at Newmarket today. It looks like heavy going ?
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Three seconds so nothing gained at all. I am going to lay all my selections in- running at 1.95 for a stake of £10.20 in the future. This means that if one gets close but fails then I get back my stake money. Should I be watching the racing I will cancel the other two bets if the first bet gets matched and loses. Should the first bet win I would let the second bet run and cancel the third if that one gets matched and loses. should the second one win I will repeat the same again. Very frustrating to get beaten on all my selections.
Anyway multiples = £4 loss and the balance is now £622.69 (Bank £800)
The loss on singles is £6 so the balance is now £149.39 (Bank £400) I don't think I can get back to B/E now but will soldier on
Three jumps meetings tomorrow with an inspection at Lingfield. Possibly do a Trixie and win bets if I get the time to do so.
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3.20 Weth Saint Xavier one point win at 150/1 with Bet365
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6 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:
All prices Bet365:
11.55 Wetherby - 1pt e/w One More Fleurie @ 10/1
Didn't show much on reappearance but may have needed that and it also came in a better race than this. Previously has shown some solid enough form before racing too freely over three miles in the mud at the back end of last year. With fitness on side and the drop back in trip a potential positive around here, can see a better effort this afternoon off a decent mark.
12.35 Newmarket - 2pts win Alanmar @ 5/1
Has a good pedigree and is related to 5 decent winners with the majority scoring either on their first or second start so this one is likely to be forward and William Haggas' are usually good to go on debut. Has plenty of soft ground horses in its pedigree too so lots to like on debut here at a backable price.
12.50 Uttoxeter - 1pt e/w Everything Now @ 28/1
The favourite is the likely winner if good to go but I think Everything Now has sound each-way hopes here. Was green on debut in a bumper but shaped well at a big price after a long absence last time out over hurdles, finishing midfield but not beaten a million miles considering it was his debut over jumps after a long absence. Also will certainly want further than two miles and this extra half mile will suit. He's a half brother to three jumpers all rated 20-30lbs higher than him so definite scope for improvement and his relatives stay so two miles was never likely to suit.
2.10 Wetherby - 1pt e/w Louis Vac Pouch @ 10/1
Bit in an out in his career to date but showed some good novice chase form and also ran well in a big handicap chase at the Cheltenham festival earlier in the year too. Much of his racing has come over shorter than ideal or in novice races against good horses so I think there's some scope off this mark in a handicap with conditions in his favour. Jumping will need to hold up but has the benefit of a recent run and that could help him against some types returning from absences today.
2.55 Newmarket - 2pts win Hawridge Flyer @ 7/1
Runs this track well and runs off the same mark as when fighting out the finish with Berrahri here a few starts back. The pair were 7 lengths clear and this one has had excuses since - running in a hot race here on good ground and then hampered over a shorter than ideal 1m2f trip last time out. Returns to ideal conditions in terms of track, trip and ground now and looks to hold a real chance this afternoon.
3.30 Newmarket - 2pts win Awake My Soul @ 9/2
Is getting on a bit now but still in good heart and the race wasn't quite ideal at Pontefract last time. Got outpaced on the home turn as can happen there and those in front tend to get away from you, as they did that day. This long straight should play more to his strengths and he's clearly still in decent form so in a winnable race looks worthy of a bet.
Well done on Awake My Soul, the outsider
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16 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
2.10 Weth Royal Village (BG5) One point win at 40/1 with Bet 365
A non-runner
4.15 Nc No Civil Justice (JF 10%) one point win at 80/1 with Bet365
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2.10 Weth Royal Village (BG5) One point win at 40/1 with Bet 365
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8.00 Chelm Calvanist (SD) One point win at 11/1 with BetVictor
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Gone for some singles today
1.15 Nott Sword Beach (JF 10%) £1 win at 7/1 : fancied runners up in class
1.50 Nott Bedford Flyer (WB 21%) £2 win at 10/3 = £8.67
2.20 Nott Helvetian (WB 21%) £1 win at 13/2 = £7.50
2.50 Nott Multellie (EMc 7lbs recent winner) £1 win at 9/1
3.20 Nott Tinnahalla (WB 21%) £2 win at 7/2
3.20 Nott Little Tipsy (JM 17%) 30p win at 80/13.50 Nott Thorntoun Care (Ms A C 5lbs claimer) £1 win at 7/1
3.50 Nott Champaign Castle (SB) 30p win at 28/1
4.20Nott N Over J (SB) £1 win at 14/1
= £9.60 total singles stakes
Hopefully back later for Kempton selections
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None of my selections won today so a £9.60 loss on the day. This brings my balance to £155.39 (£400 Bank)
I need to spend more time with my lay betting strategy so I will probably only post up a £1 Trixie with three £2 win bets from tomorrow. May include the odd outsiders for very small stake money though
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4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
150 nott
Tricky little nursery .....only 6 runners but faustus ran really well on soft last time and looks really fairly treated for his hcap debut based on that ....I'll play ew
Faustus 10pt ew 17/2 willh 2 places
Effectively 5lbs worse off because it had a very good claimer on board last time. What do I know; I'm going for Bedford Flyer with William Buick aboard. Good luck though
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3.20 Nott Little Tipsy one (JM) point win at 80/1 with Bet365
Racing Chat - Saturday 7th November
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted · Edited by The Equaliser
Results Update
One Trixie today
1.30 Don Brando (KS) £2 win at 4/1
2.05 Don Freyja (BC) 9/2
3.15 Don Sam Cooke 11/2
One £1 win Trixie = £4 v poss return of £274.50
One really great thing about using ratings is that one cuts the number of selections to look at down to truly manageable proportions.
However, when I see William Buick defy the ratings as he did by winning on Sir Benedict at 6/1 by a nose and a nose I do sigh a little. Pity he won't win the title, his strike rate is far better than Oisin Murphy. He is definitely the man to follow next year ?
£4 on multiples & £2 on singles
Back later hopefully
Brando blew the start what a bummer
2.05 Don Freyja £2 win at 9/2
3.15 Don Sam Cooke £1 win at 11/2
3.15 Don Surrey Pride £1 win at 10/1
3.15 Don Dash Of spice £1 win at 12/1
3.45 Don With Respect £1 win at 7/1
3.45 Don Lord Oberon £1 win at 12/1
3.45 Don Praxeology £1 win at 18/1
3.35 Win Present Man £1 win at 8/1
3.35 Win Potterman £1 win at 11/1
= £4 multiples
= £12 on singles
= Total £16
May come back later with some more later, getting the taste for it again
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Well I guess that it was no surprise to have a blank day with so many and such competition. Maybe if I was in America I could claim that they all won in reality and that I should sue the bookies ?
Potterman was only beaten by a short head and traded at 1.02 in running so that was a bit unlucky.
Multiples loss = £4. Balance c/fwd is now £617.69 (£800 Bank)
Singles loss = £12 Balance c/fwd is now £146.24 (Bank £400)
Three jumps meetings in the UK later so that may be interesting