The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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4.45 Nc Dreamweaver one point win at 10/3 with Betvictor
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8.00 Chelm Qaaraat one point win at 7/1 with WiliiamHill
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6 hours ago, Trotter said:
some breaking news ......... champion jockey Oisin Murphy faces a ban after testing positive for cocaine !
Well.let's hope he wins on Lethal Angel in the 7.30 at Chelmsford. Sorry to be mercenary Trotter but business is business
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One small Trixie so far today at Warwick
1.10 War Zoffee 11/4 (put in £2 at 4.6= £7.06)
1.45 War Miss Honey Ryder 8/1 (£1.20 at 15/2= £10)
2.55 War Dariya 11/2 (£2 at 11/2 = £13)One 50p win Trixie = £2 v poss return of £167.98
Other bets
1.45 War Calum Gilhooley £2 win at 4/1 = £10
1.45 War Vancouver 70p win at 16/1 = £11.902.20 War Nightfly £1.20 win at 6/1 = £8.40
2.55 war Dariya £2 win at 11/2 = £13.00
2.55 War Pink Sheets £1 win at 5/2 = £3.50 (ins bet)3.30 War Rock The House £1.20 at 8/1 = £10.80
3.30 War Captain Morgs £1 at 5/4 = £2.25 (Ins bet)Multiple so far = £2.00
Singles so far = £14.30
= £16.30 in total so far
I have a busy day today but sincerely hope that I can get back in time for some Chelmsford selections. Fascinating day for the top jocks and lots to choose from
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22 hours ago, Boulder5111 said:
N4.05 The Daley Express 12/1 Betfair
Good luck now your winner has gone in
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Too many Jockeys to look at on the flat today with so many runners. Have concentrated on the Jumps; though may come back later
One trixie at £1 = £4 v £84.16
2.45 Bang Earl Of Harrow 2/1
3.45 Hunt The Distant Lady 5/2
4.30 Bang Ferrobin 10/3Other bets:
3.10 Hunt Stonemadforspeed (DJ) £1.20 win at 7/1 = £9.60
4.20 Hunt Stitched £2 win at 8.6 = £14.90
1.40 Bang Get In Robin £1.20 win at 4/1 = £6.00
2.45 Bang Presentandcounting £1.20 win at 9/2 = £6.60
3.20 Bang Minnela Tara £1.20 at 9/2 = £6.60
3.55 Bang Thomas shelby £1.20 win at 9/2 = £6.60
3.55 Bang Packetto the rafters £1.20 win at 13/2 = £9.005.00 Bang Chatelier £1.20 win at 6/1 = £8.40
= £4 multiples
= £10.40 singles
= Total £14.40
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I had to have a little chuckle to myself on discovering that I was just as good at picking losers over the jumps as I am at picking losers on the flat ?
Anyway, only one winner today and that wasn't even in my Trixie.
This means that I lost £4 on the multiples and so the balance is now £654.69 (Bank £800)
The winning single paid £6.60 hence after deducting £10.40 the loss was £3.80. My singles balance is now £235.02 (Bank £400)
I notice that a lot of the top jockeys have been sent to Chelmsford tomorrow instead of Salisbury so that should be interesting
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13 hours ago, BillyHills said:
Come on mate, your better than that, get involved.?
Haha, I try to win the comp. For the first half of the month I play for decent chance winners and when things go pear shaped I try to tackle the outside chances in order to have a chance of winning. I guess you won't like my 100/1 shot today with Isobel Frances aboard ?
BTW WHY HAVE YOU TAKEN AWAY THE EDIT BUTTON ON THIS AND RACING CHAT WITHOUT ANY WARNING?
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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
One Trixie today
3.15 Ayr Harrison Point (HD) 2/1
3.50 Ayr Bucephalus (HD) 3/1 (£2 at 5.4 = £8.62)
5.10 Wolv Have To Have (RD) 9/2 (£2 at 6.9 = £11.57)One £1 win Trixie = £4 v poss return of £116.50
Other Bets
3.15 Ayr Right Action £1.20 at 17/2 = £11.40
3.25 Bang Solstice Star £1.20 at 10/1 £13.20
5.40 Wolv Asmund 45p win at 25/1 = £11.70
6.10 Wolv Double Martini 70p win at 16/1 = £11.90
6.10 Wolv Aegus 30p win at 66/1 = £20.106.40 Wolv Tore Dorado 70p win at 12/1 = £9.10
7.40 Wolv Tom's Half Brother £2 win at 11/2 = £13
8.10 Wolv Freedom And Wheat £1.20 win at 6/1 £8.40
= £4 on multiples
= £11.35 on singles
= £15.35 in total
Poetry in motion
Looks someone has removed the "edit" button
No worries. Results update.
Two singles winners whilst Hollie let me down on the multiples
minus £4 on the multiples, therefore £658.69 C/Fwd (£800 Bank)
The two singles returned £21.40 less £11.35 = £10.05 profit. therefore the balance c/fwd is now £238.82 (Bank £400)
I am truly loving backing only top and in form jockeys and apprentices. Time will tell but I don't think that I will ever drop this initial and then deciding factor after considering all the other stuff like form, going, class course and distance etc. It is in my humble opinion the only way to cut through all the hype that is bestowed on horses that should do the business but don't. The owners/trainers insist on the best jockeys for their horses when they have a good chance of winning and by focussing on the jockeys and then the form etc seems to me to be a great way of cutting down on a lot of what amounts to unrewarding pre race research.
Three class 3 races at Nottingham and two class 3's at Kempton tomorrow so high class action definitely lacking
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One Trixie today
3.15 Ayr Harrison Point (HD) 2/1
3.50 Ayr Bucephalus (HD) 3/1 (£2 at 5.4 = £8.62)
5.10 Wolv Have To Have (RD) 9/2 (£2 at 6.9 = £11.57)One £1 win Trixie = £4 v poss return of £116.50
Other Bets
3.15 Ayr Right Action £1.20 at 17/2 = £11.40
3.25 Bang Solstice Star £1.20 at 10/1 £13.20
5.40 Wolv Asmund 45p win at 25/1 = £11.70
6.10 Wolv Double Martini 70p win at 16/1 = £11.90
6.10 Wolv Aegus 30p win at 66/1 = £20.106.40 Wolv Tore Dorado 70p win at 12/1 = £9.10
7.40 Wolv Tom's Half Brother £2 win at 11/2 = £13
8.10 Wolv Freedom And Wheat £1.20 win at 6/1 £8.40
= £4 on multiples
= £11.35 on singles
= £15.35 in total
Poetry in motion
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16 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
1.10 Bangor THE BUTCHER SAID @ 11/10 B365
You certainly had a nose for that one
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6.10 Wolv Aegus one point win at 66/1 with Bet365
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5.05 Nc Ouseburn one point win at 40/1 with bet365
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One Trixie today:
3.00 Ham Donnachies Girl £1.20 win at 7/1
3.10 NAb Winter Getaway £2 win at 4/1
5.20 Bath Precisely £2 win at 4/1£1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £278.50
Other bet
5.20 Bath Biotic 70p win at 12/1
Following top Jockeys and apprentices now. Easier to find, let's hope not easier to lose money. Lots of other selections but no time to list here
Multiples = £4
Singles = £5.90
Total = £9.90
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Only one winner so my Trixie failed = -£4.00 = a balance c/fwd of £662.69 (£800 Bank)
My singles winner paid £9.20 after a rule 4 deduction of 10p in the pound. This showed a profit of £3.30 and my balance c/fwd is now £228.77 (£400 Bank)
I am fairly certain that my latest approach of focussing on top in form jockeys and apprentices is going to pay off. Apart from backing Will Buick's Precisely I also backed Hollie Doyles Devils Roc and Georgia Dobie's Lady Elysia at 15/2. I noticed that Phil Dennis had got two winners this evening so I took a punt on Star Cracker at 14/1 in the last. I knew that Phil Dennis would be bouyed up by his two previous succeses and although that Zebulon had him well beaten previously I suspected that the 5lbs penalty may be the undoing of him.
HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN..............
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13 hours ago, kendallmintcake said:
celestial force
14.40 n/a 13 /8
Welcome to Punters Lounge. Hopefully you will stay with us through October and have a real chance of winning the competition
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One £1 win Trixie today. Becoming disenchanted with horses running well previously and then bombing out in its race and I find it difficult to find those that have been running badly previously and can then bounce back. I may have to resort to Jockey bookings in the future. This is tricky because there are quite a few excellent jockeys with good rides competing in the same race. They can also have lots of rides in any one day which adds to the problem.
2.50 Muss Treble Treble £2 win at 7/2
4.45 Ches Edinburgh Castle £2 win at 7/2
5.40 Muss Good View £2 win at 4.6 (matched)One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £121.69
Other bets
5.00 Nott Ginger Max 70p win at 14/1
5.00 Nott Bezzas Lad 45p win at 25/14.00 Muss Gometra Ginly 45p win at 25/1
3.25 Muss Angel eyes 30p win at 100/1
= £4 multiples
= £7.90 singles
= Total = £11.90
Poss back later
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Only one winner today but that almost paid for my total stakes
Hence a loss on the Multiples of £4 and the balance c/fwd is now £669.69 (£800 Bank)
The win bet paid £11.70 (thanks to Tom Marquand) which meant a profit of £3.80. The balance c/fwd is now £225.47 (£400 Bank).
I am going to give it a go tomorrow for all my decided selections to finally be based upon which jockey is riding the selected beast. This will include Top Current jockeys and top apprentices that can still claim an allowance.
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3.25 Muss Angel Eyes one point win at 100/1 with Bet365
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5.45 Chelm Luxford one point win at 28/1 with Betfair
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3 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:
3.20 Market Rasen - 1pt win Cawthorne @ 12/1 Bet365
Well done
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One Trixie today
2.10 M/R Luck Of The draw £2 win at 9/2
3.55 M/R Say Nothing £2 win at 4.7 =£7.25 Only 3/1 for Trixie
4.40 NM Documenting £2 win at 7/2One £1 win Trixie = £4 = Poss return of £163.75
I will be playing around with my insurance lay bets but will not report on them until I at least have October's results for analysis
Other Equaliser bets
1.35 M/R Royal Magic £1.20 win at 11/2 (can't justify a £2 win with 2 hot fancies at the market front end)
2.10 M/R Neverbeentoparis £1.20 win at 17/2
4.10 N/M Neptune's Wonder £1.20 win at 8/1
Total Mutliples = £4
Total singles so far = £9.60
= Total stakes so far £13.60
I'll be back. as Arnie once said
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A blank day all round. The main sporting press were all extolling the virtues of Documenting in the 4.40 at Newmarket today Only up 4lbs they said and has a good chance of winning. But just before the race the TV commentator was saying how a horse rated 105 would have difficulty winning a race such as that. It's price drifted to 9/2 from 7/2 and it ran no race to speak of at all finishing 7th beaten 7 lengths. This is what annoys me about the sporting press; if a TV commnetator knew this why did they not point it out?
A £4 loss on multiples = a balance c/fwd of £670.69 (Bank £800)
A £9.60 hit on my singles meant a new balance c/fwd of £221.67 (Bank £400). Don't know why this balance is doing so bad?
On a brighter note I did back @Bathtime For Rupert nap (thanks again). In reality I only lost £1.07 on the day.
Three UK meetings tomorrow so should have some fun looking through them
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8.00 Nc Deolali one point win at 33/1 with Bet365
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One Trixie today
1.15 Nm Crossford £2 win at 7/2
1.50 Nm Cloak Of Spirits £2 win at 7/2
4.35 Hd Prince Alex £2 win at 4.8 = £7.45One Trixie at £1 = £4 = poss return of £137.25
= £4 on multiples
= £6 on singles
= £10 total
I am experimenting a little differently with my lay betting today. What I have done is put in a "lay" bet of £10.21 at odds of 2.04 in running on each of the three selections above. If one gets matched and wins I lose £10.62 on the "lay" bet and win £7 on the win bet = a £3.62 loss. If this happened on all three I would lose £10.86. However, I would win £137.25 on the Trixie. I would still win about £19 if a double came in. Looks like worth a try when I am always trying to protect my bank
Strictly speaking at odds of 7/2 (my minimum) I should put in lay bets at £10.21 at 1.88 for a max liability of £8.98 but the big boys have carved up the in running market and I feel uncomfortable about setting up a "lay" bet at less than 2.0. My win/multiple bets won't always be placed at 7/2 so the deficit may not always be a factor.
I have just checked and have found out that next to nothing is in the queue at 1.88 so I have amended my "lay" bets to £10.21 at 1.88 which means that I break even if one horse wins and my price gets matched
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Two winners so a double on the multiples. This paid £20 less £4 = £16 on the day Balance c/fwd £674.69 (£800 Bank)
I couldn't have got it more wrong with my in-running adjustments. I decimated my singles wins and created a loss of £5.46!!! Anyway I have written the singles balance down because of it and it now stands at £231.27 (Bank £400).
I should have just laid the amounts to recover the singles stakes and a proportion of the multiples which I will do in the future e.g. £3.41 at 1.98 = £3.34 v a liability of £3.34 on each selection.
Tomorrow is another day.
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7.00 Kem Conscierge one point win at 12/1 with Betfair
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One Trixie today
1.00 Pont Dark Company £2 win at 7/2
2.25 Nm Betsy Trotter £2 win at 7/2
4.00 Perth Dancing In The sky £2 win at 7/2One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £198.50
My pick of PL Tips
1.50 Nm Mark Of The Man £1.20 at 15/2
3.45 Ponte Magical Effect 70p at 12/1
4.20 Pont Saluti £1.20 at 5/1 (doesn't warrant £2 win imo)
Total multiples = £4.00
Singles so far £9.10
Back later with Naps selections
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One winner today so my Trixie failed. £4 loss and the balance c/fwd is £658.69 (£800 Bank)
One winner for the singles and one non runner. Therefore outlay (£9.10) + £1.20 + £9 = + £1.10. the balance c/fwd is £236.73 (£400 Bank)
My pick of PL tips 2 losers and one non runner = - £1.90 c/f
Didn't have time for my pick of PL naps which is a pity as there were a number of winners
More class action at Newmarket tomorrow. Trying to find a way to cut down time spent on finding my selections. No matter how long I spend it does not seem to affect the outcome(s), so I may as well cut some corners.
Racing Chat - Friday Oct 2nd
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted · Edited by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE
No Trixie yet
singles:
1.55 Asc Grove Ferry £2 win at 7/2 = £9
1.55 Asc Piranesi £1 win at 2/1 = £3 (Ins bet)
3.05 Asc Ebury £2 win at 4/1 = £10
305 Asc Beanski £1.20 win at 7/1
3.40 Asc CEst No Mour £1.20 at 6/1
3.40 Asc Beholden £1 win at 6/4 = £2.50 (ins bet)
4.15 Asc Cadeu D'or £1.20 win at 5/1 = £7.20
4.15 Asc Duck And Vanish £1.20 at 7/1 = £9.60
4.50 Asc Buhturi 70p win at 12/1
4.50 Asc Stone Circle 30p win at 50/1
4.45 Nc Dreamweaver £2 win at 4.6 = £7.06
5.20 Nc My Ukelele £2 win at 11/2
5.20 Nc Corked 45p win at 18/1 = £8.55
5.50 Nc Al Suit Eile 50p win at 20/1 = £10.5
5.50 Nc Al Aresh 50p win at 12/1 = £6.50
7.00 Nc At Ease £1.20 win at 6/1
7.00 Nc Paycheck £1.20 win at 11/2
7.30 Nc Lukeoutoldmakexbak £2 win at 9/2 = £11
8.00 Nc Najb £2 win at 4/1 = £10
8.00 Nc Jervaulx £1.20 at 7/1 = £9.60
8.30 Nc Dazzling Des 50p win at 20/1 = £10.50
8.30 Nc Summit Fever £1.20 at 13/2
Total singles stakes = £26.45
One Trixie at 50p = £2 v poss return of £133.99
4.45 Nc Dreamweaver 7/2
5.20 Nc My Ukelele 6/1
7.30 Nc Lukoutoldmakezebak 9/2
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Two winners today (not in the multiples so a blank day for them. Loss of £2 and balance c/fwd is now £650.69 (Bank £800)
Actually had a 50/1 shot winner today bit only had 30p on it. This paid £11.55 as Sportsbook deducted 25p in the £ for non-runner(s). Also an insurance bet won and returned £3.00. Hence a total return of £14.55 which meant a loss of £12.00. The balance C/Fwd is now £212.22 (£400 Bank.
Nb I didn't update results yesterday so have included results in my c/fwd figures.
The top flat jockeys appear to be at Newmarket tomorrow so that should be interesting. I'm not interested in the French racing over the weekend. seems to me that the going is already described as being "Heavy" so may be racing may not go ahead. No concern to me if it does or doesn't.
I have only been following the top in form jockeys' and apprentices for a few days now and can already see there are gaps emerging between the so-called form horses and those that seem to win with professed little chance of winning. I am still finding my feet with my new strategy and as anyone can see I am having difficulty choosing between the selections on offer. I will probably start to cut back on the so called top jock/in form horses (or just include those in Trixies). This can leave me to focus on possible dark horses for win bet purposes. Should be fun