The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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One £1 win Trixie today. Becoming disenchanted with horses running well previously and then bombing out in its race and I find it difficult to find those that have been running badly previously and can then bounce back. I may have to resort to Jockey bookings in the future. This is tricky because there are quite a few excellent jockeys with good rides competing in the same race. They can also have lots of rides in any one day which adds to the problem.
2.50 Muss Treble Treble £2 win at 7/2
4.45 Ches Edinburgh Castle £2 win at 7/2
5.40 Muss Good View £2 win at 4.6 (matched)One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £121.69
Other bets
5.00 Nott Ginger Max 70p win at 14/1
5.00 Nott Bezzas Lad 45p win at 25/14.00 Muss Gometra Ginly 45p win at 25/1
3.25 Muss Angel eyes 30p win at 100/1
= £4 multiples
= £7.90 singles
= Total = £11.90
Poss back later
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Only one winner today but that almost paid for my total stakes
Hence a loss on the Multiples of £4 and the balance c/fwd is now £669.69 (£800 Bank)
The win bet paid £11.70 (thanks to Tom Marquand) which meant a profit of £3.80. The balance c/fwd is now £225.47 (£400 Bank).
I am going to give it a go tomorrow for all my decided selections to finally be based upon which jockey is riding the selected beast. This will include Top Current jockeys and top apprentices that can still claim an allowance.
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3.25 Muss Angel Eyes one point win at 100/1 with Bet365
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5.45 Chelm Luxford one point win at 28/1 with Betfair
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3 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:
3.20 Market Rasen - 1pt win Cawthorne @ 12/1 Bet365
Well done
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One Trixie today
2.10 M/R Luck Of The draw £2 win at 9/2
3.55 M/R Say Nothing £2 win at 4.7 =£7.25 Only 3/1 for Trixie
4.40 NM Documenting £2 win at 7/2One £1 win Trixie = £4 = Poss return of £163.75
I will be playing around with my insurance lay bets but will not report on them until I at least have October's results for analysis
Other Equaliser bets
1.35 M/R Royal Magic £1.20 win at 11/2 (can't justify a £2 win with 2 hot fancies at the market front end)
2.10 M/R Neverbeentoparis £1.20 win at 17/2
4.10 N/M Neptune's Wonder £1.20 win at 8/1
Total Mutliples = £4
Total singles so far = £9.60
= Total stakes so far £13.60
I'll be back. as Arnie once said
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A blank day all round. The main sporting press were all extolling the virtues of Documenting in the 4.40 at Newmarket today Only up 4lbs they said and has a good chance of winning. But just before the race the TV commentator was saying how a horse rated 105 would have difficulty winning a race such as that. It's price drifted to 9/2 from 7/2 and it ran no race to speak of at all finishing 7th beaten 7 lengths. This is what annoys me about the sporting press; if a TV commnetator knew this why did they not point it out?
A £4 loss on multiples = a balance c/fwd of £670.69 (Bank £800)
A £9.60 hit on my singles meant a new balance c/fwd of £221.67 (Bank £400). Don't know why this balance is doing so bad?
On a brighter note I did back @Bathtime For Rupert nap (thanks again). In reality I only lost £1.07 on the day.
Three UK meetings tomorrow so should have some fun looking through them
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8.00 Nc Deolali one point win at 33/1 with Bet365
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One Trixie today
1.15 Nm Crossford £2 win at 7/2
1.50 Nm Cloak Of Spirits £2 win at 7/2
4.35 Hd Prince Alex £2 win at 4.8 = £7.45One Trixie at £1 = £4 = poss return of £137.25
= £4 on multiples
= £6 on singles
= £10 total
I am experimenting a little differently with my lay betting today. What I have done is put in a "lay" bet of £10.21 at odds of 2.04 in running on each of the three selections above. If one gets matched and wins I lose £10.62 on the "lay" bet and win £7 on the win bet = a £3.62 loss. If this happened on all three I would lose £10.86. However, I would win £137.25 on the Trixie. I would still win about £19 if a double came in. Looks like worth a try when I am always trying to protect my bank
Strictly speaking at odds of 7/2 (my minimum) I should put in lay bets at £10.21 at 1.88 for a max liability of £8.98 but the big boys have carved up the in running market and I feel uncomfortable about setting up a "lay" bet at less than 2.0. My win/multiple bets won't always be placed at 7/2 so the deficit may not always be a factor.
I have just checked and have found out that next to nothing is in the queue at 1.88 so I have amended my "lay" bets to £10.21 at 1.88 which means that I break even if one horse wins and my price gets matched
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Two winners so a double on the multiples. This paid £20 less £4 = £16 on the day Balance c/fwd £674.69 (£800 Bank)
I couldn't have got it more wrong with my in-running adjustments. I decimated my singles wins and created a loss of £5.46!!! Anyway I have written the singles balance down because of it and it now stands at £231.27 (Bank £400).
I should have just laid the amounts to recover the singles stakes and a proportion of the multiples which I will do in the future e.g. £3.41 at 1.98 = £3.34 v a liability of £3.34 on each selection.
Tomorrow is another day.
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7.00 Kem Conscierge one point win at 12/1 with Betfair
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One Trixie today
1.00 Pont Dark Company £2 win at 7/2
2.25 Nm Betsy Trotter £2 win at 7/2
4.00 Perth Dancing In The sky £2 win at 7/2One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £198.50
My pick of PL Tips
1.50 Nm Mark Of The Man £1.20 at 15/2
3.45 Ponte Magical Effect 70p at 12/1
4.20 Pont Saluti £1.20 at 5/1 (doesn't warrant £2 win imo)
Total multiples = £4.00
Singles so far £9.10
Back later with Naps selections
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One winner today so my Trixie failed. £4 loss and the balance c/fwd is £658.69 (£800 Bank)
One winner for the singles and one non runner. Therefore outlay (£9.10) + £1.20 + £9 = + £1.10. the balance c/fwd is £236.73 (£400 Bank)
My pick of PL tips 2 losers and one non runner = - £1.90 c/f
Didn't have time for my pick of PL naps which is a pity as there were a number of winners
More class action at Newmarket tomorrow. Trying to find a way to cut down time spent on finding my selections. No matter how long I spend it does not seem to affect the outcome(s), so I may as well cut some corners.
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5.20 Perth Jolie Crickette one point win at 35/1 with Betfair
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A few PL Nap bets
4.15 Perth Befani Blue 70p win at 10/1
4.55 Red Highjacked £1.20 at 9/1
7.30 Km Whitehaven 70p win at 16/1
7.30 Km Topology 45p win at 25/1£3.05
Been out all morning so little time today
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No winners today so a small £3.05 Loss. My singles balance is now £235.63 (Bank £400)
No multiples or Lay bets today so the balances are unchanged
My Naps picks lost £3.05 so the deficit C/Fwd is £26.95
Class action at Newmarket tomorrowI am trying to cut down on my time on all this stuff so it may seem strange to add in my pick of PL tips from tomorrow. This is to counter balance my pick of the Naps tips which are usually at longer prices
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7 hours ago, waggy said:
Secret Protector - 17.00 Kempton
Sorry I can't see that runner
I found it now. won at 1/4 thanks
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3.55 Bev Zeshov one point win at 25/1 Betfred
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One Trixie at £1 = £4 = poss return of £114.81
1.55 Ling Conscious 10/3
4.05 War Veiled Secret 10/3
4.50 Lin Beholden 5/2Back soon with some win bets
3.15 Bev Gamesome £1.20 win at 8/1
4.55 Bev Contrast £1.20 at 15/2
4.05 War Auld Sod £1.20 win at 5/1
5.15 War Crackin Rose £1.20 win at 11/2
3.05 Lin Don't Look Back £2 win at 7/2
3.40 Lin Lynn's Boy £1.20 win at 6/1
4.15 Lin Green Door £1.20 win at 6/1
5.50 Lin Union Spirit £1.20 win at 8/1
= £10.40 on singles
4.55 Bev Thontoun Care £1.20 win at 9/1
My pick of Nap selections
Jupitor Road £1.20 at 6/1
I was going to include Royal Brave in the 3.15 Bev but any value in its price has now gone so I'll leave it
Can't believe that one of my Trixie selections has won
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Not a good day with no winners. I did back Caselli for 70p in the 3.50 at Newbury at 14/1 but forgot to record it
Anyway a £12.80 loss on the day and my singles balance has dwindled to £238.68 (Bank £400)
The multiples lost £4 and the balance c/fwd is £662.69 (Bank £800)
I lost £1.20 on the PL Naps and the deficit is now -£23.90
Let's see what disaster I can create tomorrow at Goodwood
Have a good night's sleep everyone, I know I will
- LEE-GRAYS and Villa Chris
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Just one lay bet atm
1.00 Bev Charlie Fellowes £20.42 at 2.94 = £20.10 v £39.61 liability. Being strongly backed at so I hope it struggles up the Beverley Hill
Back later
Well Charlie Fellowes won well
1.30 Bev Naamoos £20.42 at 1.63 = £20.01 v - £12.66
4.25 Bev Valrian Steel £20.42 at 1.44 (um 1.56 but is sure to get matched in running) £20.01 v (£8.98)
5.20 Lin Taqareer £20.42 at 1.44 = £20.01 v ((£8.98)
Looking at win bets now
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Haha, I guess I got what I deserved by laying very short priced favourites on good to firm going. Four losing bets = -£70.23 and a balance c/fwd of -£89.84. I will be a bit more careful in future. As an aside, I did recover my losses by way of Redesdale Rebel in the 6.40 at Newcastle which was sent off at 6/4. This doesn't count in my figures and I am very happy that everyone, for the time being at least, concludes that I am living dangerously. I will improve with my lay selctions in time ?
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One Trixie today
3.25 Ham Wades Magic £2 win at 5.0 (10/3)
3.55 Ham Nietzche £2 win at 4.6 (smashed in to 3.65 so probably won't get matched; see if I care) 5/2
5.30 wolv Electrique £2 win at 4/1
£1 win trixie = £4 poss return of £130.171.00 Leic Spanish Mane £2 win at 9/2
My pick of PL Naps
1.00 Leic Gherkin £1.20 win at 17/2
Should be back later with more plus possible "lay" bets
Going to lay Side shot in th 7.30 at Wolv. £20.42 at 2.94 (UM) 3.6 atm (set price for in running) if it loses I win £20 if it wins I lose £39.61. It may be the best horse but it has two good opponents and not all horses take to Tapeta on their first attempt
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My multpies failed so a £4 loss was incurred this leaves the balance c/fwd as £666.9 (£800 Bank)
I did have one winner on my singles and endured a 10p rule 4 deduction and got paid £10.10. Outlay £9.20 so a whopping 90p profit. The balance C/Fwd is now £251.48 (£400 Bank)
I only had time for one of the Naps selections which lost £1.20. The C/fwd balance is now -£22.70
My late "lay" bet won its race by a short head so I incurred a los of £39.61. The balance c/fwd on lay bets is now - £19.61
Only one class 2 and one class 3 race tomorrow across the UK. A number of class 4 races and since my winner today came from a class 6 race maybe there's a chance of some winners
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7 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:
These are not live on BF yet ,this is a trial.
The rating predictions should get more accurate the more it 'learns' ,therefore making the exp odds more accurate.
All my bets cancel @ the off as anything can happen in running and if your perceived odds are wrong scalpers will have a field day and I don't intend to feed the leechesI always respect your opinion, however, I do feel that you could be missing out with the in-running angle of doubling or trebling of requested odds. As you rightly say, anything can happen in racing after the off but quite often favourites drift out during the race only to come back in when they they get back into the race. Sure, a horse can fall at the first fence or rise up in the stalls at the off on the flat and blow its chances but on balance I feel that it could well be a value angle to exploit.
I hope that you are keeping well and have noticed that you have had a good run of recent winners that should be appluaded
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1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said:
Been spending most of my time on Kaggle lately and and Ive been quite impressed with the ease of use and results from XGBoost which seems to be the go to ML tool atm so Ive had a little play fired in some parameters and given it a whirl on the 8+ runner hcaps to see how it fares today ?.
Ive incorporated an expected price algo in to give some idea of an expected edge if any against the horses price, +/- 10% of book price would be a reasonable expectation of the horses ratings accuracy at this early stage ( ie if Exp Odds is say 5.00 but price is 21 (320% edge) it does not mean massive value as the difference in odds is more likely due to missing data rather than a cock up by the bookies ?)
Anyway Ive stuck them up for the maiden trial and see how they fare (Green tops are the extra place races which are the ones I'm mainly interested in for a possible future betting medium)
All top rated are normalised to return max of 100 for ease of calculation with my pricing algo (Could just as easy be set to anything but 100 suits as its the Datum used for all of my other stuff ).
Very Interesting. I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that the big boys have sorted out all the in-runnig lay odds in their favour; I've even seen a horse being beaten by a head and not matched for a lay bet at 2.04. I do realise that you abhor "lay" betting BUT where I believe that punters may well score is to set up an in-running WIN bet on a horse at 2 to 3 times its available price at the off. For example, Nahaarr in the 3.40 Ayr Gold cup yesterday was matched at 90/1 in running according to the commentator on ITV yesterday. The only reason I mention this is because it seems to me that quite a number of your 100 rated exp odds are greater than the odds available now. It occurs to me that if you backed them on Betfair in running and pressed the "keep" button that they may well be matched during the race and could show a decent profit in the long run. Just a thought.
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No multiples today
Equaliser bets
1.45 Plum American Craftsman 70p win at 12/1
2.50 Plum Jamacho £2 win at 4/1
2.00 Chelm Sunshineandbubbles £2 win at 6.6 = £10.98 Has been running really well and won't mind if it doesn't win as long as it tries its best
total stakes = £4.70
My pick of Napster tips
3.00 Chelm Firepower 70p win at 14/1
1.30 Chelm Dubai Legacy £1.20 at 7/1
5.40 Ham Triple Nickie £1.20 at 13/2
= £3.10 so far
LAY BET
1.15 Plum Calidus Mirabilis £20.42 at 2.94 I/R (UM 3.35) May as well do this as I do it anyway when I'm losing on my win bets. Let's hope that @Valiant Thor is right ?
Ps Calidus Mirabilus got matched so I won £20 (but not in the way I imagined). NB I need 3 out of 4 to make a decent profit. 2 out of 4 breaks even at requested odds of 2.94
3.30 Chelm Derry Boy 70p win at 14/1 (which is a bit skinny and I hope it drifts
£3.80 on Napster tips so far
4.00 Chelm Old Harbour 70p win at 14/1
£4.50 total so far on Napster tips
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Yet another blank day on my win bets. Total loss = £9.20 therefore the singles balance c/fwd is onow £250.58 (Bank £400)
No multiple bets today so the balance remains the same at £670.69 (£800 Bank)
No wins on my pick of the Naps selections so the memo balance c/fwd is - £21.50
My lay bet did lose so I won £20 which is the start of my figures for this strategy.
This seems the best way to go for me. It isn't losing money on the win bets that I resent so much it is the amount of time I spend on trying to find winners. To me it is a lot easier to try and assess a handful of short priced favourites to lose as opposed to say trying to find some winners from say over 300 runners.
Hopefully in time I will be able to give some decent analysis for my lay bets, probably won't come close to @Bathtime For Rupert but I have a long way to go to prove that I can be successful at this. As explained I need 3 out of 4 losers to make a decent profit. Two out of three just breaks even as I set the maximum price to 2.94 (in- running if need be)
Three class 3 races are the best we are going to get tomorrow out of the four tracks putting up races so it looks like another tough day for punters
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5.25 Ayr Three Saints Boy one point win at 22/1 with Bet365
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1 hour ago, andypandy23 said:
I'm actually one of Darran's biggest fans, both his footy and his nag tips. I was slightly ribbing him with the comment which maybe didn't come across. BUT...this is his worst run of form horse-wise since I've been tracking him, which is almost a year and a half.
My best advice for you is to stick with him, he will come out of the gloom. However, as I said above, you should really do a bit of research yourself before just blindly following what anybody suggests as a tip whether it be horse racing, football or anything else. Good luck whatever you do.
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As I said above I counted 387 runners in the UK today so it should be a doddle to find winners shouldn't it ?
One Trixie for £1 today = £4 = poss return of £175.33
2.15 Nb Tenbury Wells 7/2
4.15 Ayr Shelir 10/3 but got a win bet at 7/2 f or £2
5.25 Ayr Harrison Point 9/2 £2 winOther bets
2.15 Nb Good Birthday 70p win at 9/1 (not strong enough for £1.20 stakes)
2.15 Nb Ouzo 70p win at 11/14.15 Ayr Another Touch 45p win at 18/1
5.25 Ayr Three Saints Boy 45p win at 25/1
5.34 Nm Lunar Magic 70p win at 12/1
Total Multiples = £4
Total Singles = £7
Total stakes = £11
Should be back later with my pick of the Napster tips. Fascinating but frenetic day and one where everyone should be careful about staking too much
My pick of Napster tips
Just a couple before doing more research
2.15 Nb Kingbrook 70p win at 11/1
2.30 Ayr Kings Lynn £2 win at 5.8 = £9.41 if win
Continuing on now and be back soon
4.30 Nb Almufti £1.20 win at 8/1
4.50 Ayr Multellie £1.20 win at 6/1
5.15 Wolv Englishman 30p win at 50/1
5.35 Nm Phoenix Approach £2 win at 9/2
5.55 Nm Isle Of Aron £1.20 win at 9/1
Total Napster tips £8.60 today
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The third day running for a complete blank. Loss on multiples = £4 and balance C/Fwd is £670.69 (£800 Bank)
No singles winners on my own bets or Naptsers. = a £15.60 loss. Hence the balance C/Fwd is £259.78 (£400 Bank)
No Napster win bets and the balance c/fwd is -£17.00
Not much class action tomorrow and the prices on offer look a bit short to me. Wondering whether to give racing a miss. Probably won't though
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1 hour ago, andypandy23 said:
@Darran what is going on? Your tips have been crap for over a month!
You seem to totally misunderstand what one should do with horse racing tips from dedicated members of the forum. I counted 387 horses running today in the UK! Many members do a lot of work in trying to identify value bets for us all. The logical approach is to JUST take a closer look at the selections that are put up and try to see for yourself if there is an angle for a value bet that you might otherwise have missed. You have to do some work yourself. You will fail otherwise. Finally, if you give a dog a bone you don't expect it to come back and complain do you?
- Tedthewolf, calva decoy and vikki37
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32 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
Mine was quite disappointing but i think i called legal attack right it was beaten 5 lengths one good thing tho the winner Plainchant needs going into a few notebooks it was by far the quickest horse at the meeting putting in an exceptional time.
No worries, it is the bane of my life trying to work out if a horse, especially a favourite, will give its true expected running in a race.
Naps - Monday Sept 28th
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
Welcome to Punters Lounge. Hopefully you will stay with us through October and have a real chance of winning the competition