The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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3.55 Bev Zeshov one point win at 25/1 Betfred
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One Trixie at £1 = £4 = poss return of £114.81
1.55 Ling Conscious 10/3
4.05 War Veiled Secret 10/3
4.50 Lin Beholden 5/2Back soon with some win bets
3.15 Bev Gamesome £1.20 win at 8/1
4.55 Bev Contrast £1.20 at 15/2
4.05 War Auld Sod £1.20 win at 5/1
5.15 War Crackin Rose £1.20 win at 11/2
3.05 Lin Don't Look Back £2 win at 7/2
3.40 Lin Lynn's Boy £1.20 win at 6/1
4.15 Lin Green Door £1.20 win at 6/1
5.50 Lin Union Spirit £1.20 win at 8/1
= £10.40 on singles
4.55 Bev Thontoun Care £1.20 win at 9/1
My pick of Nap selections
Jupitor Road £1.20 at 6/1
I was going to include Royal Brave in the 3.15 Bev but any value in its price has now gone so I'll leave it
Can't believe that one of my Trixie selections has won
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Not a good day with no winners. I did back Caselli for 70p in the 3.50 at Newbury at 14/1 but forgot to record it
Anyway a £12.80 loss on the day and my singles balance has dwindled to £238.68 (Bank £400)
The multiples lost £4 and the balance c/fwd is £662.69 (Bank £800)
I lost £1.20 on the PL Naps and the deficit is now -£23.90
Let's see what disaster I can create tomorrow at Goodwood
Have a good night's sleep everyone, I know I will
- Villa Chris and LEE-GRAYS
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Just one lay bet atm
1.00 Bev Charlie Fellowes £20.42 at 2.94 = £20.10 v £39.61 liability. Being strongly backed at so I hope it struggles up the Beverley Hill
Back later
Well Charlie Fellowes won well
1.30 Bev Naamoos £20.42 at 1.63 = £20.01 v - £12.66
4.25 Bev Valrian Steel £20.42 at 1.44 (um 1.56 but is sure to get matched in running) £20.01 v (£8.98)
5.20 Lin Taqareer £20.42 at 1.44 = £20.01 v ((£8.98)
Looking at win bets now
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Haha, I guess I got what I deserved by laying very short priced favourites on good to firm going. Four losing bets = -£70.23 and a balance c/fwd of -£89.84. I will be a bit more careful in future. As an aside, I did recover my losses by way of Redesdale Rebel in the 6.40 at Newcastle which was sent off at 6/4. This doesn't count in my figures and I am very happy that everyone, for the time being at least, concludes that I am living dangerously. I will improve with my lay selctions in time ?
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One Trixie today
3.25 Ham Wades Magic £2 win at 5.0 (10/3)
3.55 Ham Nietzche £2 win at 4.6 (smashed in to 3.65 so probably won't get matched; see if I care) 5/2
5.30 wolv Electrique £2 win at 4/1
£1 win trixie = £4 poss return of £130.171.00 Leic Spanish Mane £2 win at 9/2
My pick of PL Naps
1.00 Leic Gherkin £1.20 win at 17/2
Should be back later with more plus possible "lay" bets
Going to lay Side shot in th 7.30 at Wolv. £20.42 at 2.94 (UM) 3.6 atm (set price for in running) if it loses I win £20 if it wins I lose £39.61. It may be the best horse but it has two good opponents and not all horses take to Tapeta on their first attempt
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My multpies failed so a £4 loss was incurred this leaves the balance c/fwd as £666.9 (£800 Bank)
I did have one winner on my singles and endured a 10p rule 4 deduction and got paid £10.10. Outlay £9.20 so a whopping 90p profit. The balance C/Fwd is now £251.48 (£400 Bank)
I only had time for one of the Naps selections which lost £1.20. The C/fwd balance is now -£22.70
My late "lay" bet won its race by a short head so I incurred a los of £39.61. The balance c/fwd on lay bets is now - £19.61
Only one class 2 and one class 3 race tomorrow across the UK. A number of class 4 races and since my winner today came from a class 6 race maybe there's a chance of some winners
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7 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:
These are not live on BF yet ,this is a trial.
The rating predictions should get more accurate the more it 'learns' ,therefore making the exp odds more accurate.
All my bets cancel @ the off as anything can happen in running and if your perceived odds are wrong scalpers will have a field day and I don't intend to feed the leechesI always respect your opinion, however, I do feel that you could be missing out with the in-running angle of doubling or trebling of requested odds. As you rightly say, anything can happen in racing after the off but quite often favourites drift out during the race only to come back in when they they get back into the race. Sure, a horse can fall at the first fence or rise up in the stalls at the off on the flat and blow its chances but on balance I feel that it could well be a value angle to exploit.
I hope that you are keeping well and have noticed that you have had a good run of recent winners that should be appluaded
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1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said:
Been spending most of my time on Kaggle lately and and Ive been quite impressed with the ease of use and results from XGBoost which seems to be the go to ML tool atm so Ive had a little play fired in some parameters and given it a whirl on the 8+ runner hcaps to see how it fares today ?.
Ive incorporated an expected price algo in to give some idea of an expected edge if any against the horses price, +/- 10% of book price would be a reasonable expectation of the horses ratings accuracy at this early stage ( ie if Exp Odds is say 5.00 but price is 21 (320% edge) it does not mean massive value as the difference in odds is more likely due to missing data rather than a cock up by the bookies ?)
Anyway Ive stuck them up for the maiden trial and see how they fare (Green tops are the extra place races which are the ones I'm mainly interested in for a possible future betting medium)
All top rated are normalised to return max of 100 for ease of calculation with my pricing algo (Could just as easy be set to anything but 100 suits as its the Datum used for all of my other stuff ).
Very Interesting. I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that the big boys have sorted out all the in-runnig lay odds in their favour; I've even seen a horse being beaten by a head and not matched for a lay bet at 2.04. I do realise that you abhor "lay" betting BUT where I believe that punters may well score is to set up an in-running WIN bet on a horse at 2 to 3 times its available price at the off. For example, Nahaarr in the 3.40 Ayr Gold cup yesterday was matched at 90/1 in running according to the commentator on ITV yesterday. The only reason I mention this is because it seems to me that quite a number of your 100 rated exp odds are greater than the odds available now. It occurs to me that if you backed them on Betfair in running and pressed the "keep" button that they may well be matched during the race and could show a decent profit in the long run. Just a thought.
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No multiples today
Equaliser bets
1.45 Plum American Craftsman 70p win at 12/1
2.50 Plum Jamacho £2 win at 4/1
2.00 Chelm Sunshineandbubbles £2 win at 6.6 = £10.98 Has been running really well and won't mind if it doesn't win as long as it tries its best
total stakes = £4.70
My pick of Napster tips
3.00 Chelm Firepower 70p win at 14/1
1.30 Chelm Dubai Legacy £1.20 at 7/1
5.40 Ham Triple Nickie £1.20 at 13/2
= £3.10 so far
LAY BET
1.15 Plum Calidus Mirabilis £20.42 at 2.94 I/R (UM 3.35) May as well do this as I do it anyway when I'm losing on my win bets. Let's hope that @Valiant Thor is right ?
Ps Calidus Mirabilus got matched so I won £20 (but not in the way I imagined). NB I need 3 out of 4 to make a decent profit. 2 out of 4 breaks even at requested odds of 2.94
3.30 Chelm Derry Boy 70p win at 14/1 (which is a bit skinny and I hope it drifts
£3.80 on Napster tips so far
4.00 Chelm Old Harbour 70p win at 14/1
£4.50 total so far on Napster tips
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Yet another blank day on my win bets. Total loss = £9.20 therefore the singles balance c/fwd is onow £250.58 (Bank £400)
No multiple bets today so the balance remains the same at £670.69 (£800 Bank)
No wins on my pick of the Naps selections so the memo balance c/fwd is - £21.50
My lay bet did lose so I won £20 which is the start of my figures for this strategy.
This seems the best way to go for me. It isn't losing money on the win bets that I resent so much it is the amount of time I spend on trying to find winners. To me it is a lot easier to try and assess a handful of short priced favourites to lose as opposed to say trying to find some winners from say over 300 runners.
Hopefully in time I will be able to give some decent analysis for my lay bets, probably won't come close to @Bathtime For Rupert but I have a long way to go to prove that I can be successful at this. As explained I need 3 out of 4 losers to make a decent profit. Two out of three just breaks even as I set the maximum price to 2.94 (in- running if need be)
Three class 3 races are the best we are going to get tomorrow out of the four tracks putting up races so it looks like another tough day for punters
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5.25 Ayr Three Saints Boy one point win at 22/1 with Bet365
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1 hour ago, andypandy23 said:
I'm actually one of Darran's biggest fans, both his footy and his nag tips. I was slightly ribbing him with the comment which maybe didn't come across. BUT...this is his worst run of form horse-wise since I've been tracking him, which is almost a year and a half.
My best advice for you is to stick with him, he will come out of the gloom. However, as I said above, you should really do a bit of research yourself before just blindly following what anybody suggests as a tip whether it be horse racing, football or anything else. Good luck whatever you do.
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As I said above I counted 387 runners in the UK today so it should be a doddle to find winners shouldn't it ?
One Trixie for £1 today = £4 = poss return of £175.33
2.15 Nb Tenbury Wells 7/2
4.15 Ayr Shelir 10/3 but got a win bet at 7/2 f or £2
5.25 Ayr Harrison Point 9/2 £2 winOther bets
2.15 Nb Good Birthday 70p win at 9/1 (not strong enough for £1.20 stakes)
2.15 Nb Ouzo 70p win at 11/14.15 Ayr Another Touch 45p win at 18/1
5.25 Ayr Three Saints Boy 45p win at 25/1
5.34 Nm Lunar Magic 70p win at 12/1
Total Multiples = £4
Total Singles = £7
Total stakes = £11
Should be back later with my pick of the Napster tips. Fascinating but frenetic day and one where everyone should be careful about staking too much
My pick of Napster tips
Just a couple before doing more research
2.15 Nb Kingbrook 70p win at 11/1
2.30 Ayr Kings Lynn £2 win at 5.8 = £9.41 if win
Continuing on now and be back soon
4.30 Nb Almufti £1.20 win at 8/1
4.50 Ayr Multellie £1.20 win at 6/1
5.15 Wolv Englishman 30p win at 50/1
5.35 Nm Phoenix Approach £2 win at 9/2
5.55 Nm Isle Of Aron £1.20 win at 9/1
Total Napster tips £8.60 today
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The third day running for a complete blank. Loss on multiples = £4 and balance C/Fwd is £670.69 (£800 Bank)
No singles winners on my own bets or Naptsers. = a £15.60 loss. Hence the balance C/Fwd is £259.78 (£400 Bank)
No Napster win bets and the balance c/fwd is -£17.00
Not much class action tomorrow and the prices on offer look a bit short to me. Wondering whether to give racing a miss. Probably won't though
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1 hour ago, andypandy23 said:
@Darran what is going on? Your tips have been crap for over a month!
You seem to totally misunderstand what one should do with horse racing tips from dedicated members of the forum. I counted 387 horses running today in the UK! Many members do a lot of work in trying to identify value bets for us all. The logical approach is to JUST take a closer look at the selections that are put up and try to see for yourself if there is an angle for a value bet that you might otherwise have missed. You have to do some work yourself. You will fail otherwise. Finally, if you give a dog a bone you don't expect it to come back and complain do you?
- Tedthewolf, calva decoy and vikki37
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32 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
Mine was quite disappointing but i think i called legal attack right it was beaten 5 lengths one good thing tho the winner Plainchant needs going into a few notebooks it was by far the quickest horse at the meeting putting in an exceptional time.
No worries, it is the bane of my life trying to work out if a horse, especially a favourite, will give its true expected running in a race.
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One Trixie at Newbury today
2.30 Scarlet Dragon £2 win at 9/2
4.15 Dbai £2 win at 4.6
5.20 Inclyne £2 win at 4.8One £1 Trixie = £4 = poss return of £145.67
Other equaliser bets:
2.10 Ayr Gumdrop £1.20 win at 5/1
2.10 Ayr Nastase 70p win at 12/12.45 Ayr Queen Of Rio 70p win at 12/1
3.55 Ayr Flying Pursuit £1.20 at 8/1
Total Multiples = £4
Total win bets = £9.80
My pic of the Napster tips (so Far)
3.40 Chantilly Jubilation 70p win at 14/1
3.55 Ayr Abstemious 70p win at 14/1
Only spent £1.40 so far but not all of my selected members have posted up yet
= Total so far = £15.20
Back later
4.55 Ayr Strong Steps 30p win at 28/1
5.25 Ayr Chinese Spirit 45p win at 20/1
Total £2.15 on Napster picks
Total stakes so far £15.95
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Another blank day. Nastase was a bit unlucky to be beaten a neck and Dbai should have won but got into traffic problems about three times during the race. I sometimes wonder why I put money on top jockey's mounts.
Anyway multiples showed a loss of £4 so the balance c/fwd is £674.69 (£800 Bank).
The singles produced a loss of £11.95 hence the balance c/fwd is now £275.38 (Bank £400)
Loads of class racing later on at Ayr, Newbury and Newmarket. Should be another day of Covid free armchair fun
Forgot to mention that I am now keeping a memo and running total of my pick of the Napsters selections. I haven't scored so far and the negative balance after 3 days is - £8.40. My strategy is to select the best tips from the most of the in form napsters for the month. However, the minimum odds I take is 7/2 and I quite often choose to back outsiders. This means that there will be days when nothing comes together but hopefully over a period of time these wil be profitable ?
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24 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
Away from Ayr thoughts from this quarter...There is a race in france today (3:40 chantilly) Legal Attack (crisford n crisford) even if this horse wins by 10 lengths its got to be the worst value/price (4/5) i have come across all year i was actually going to post this last night when it was 11/8 My figures don't even put it in 1st 3.
I've lumped on your nap Jubilation. Well put 70p win on at 14/1. I suspect that @MCLARKE may have a different view with regard to the odds on Legal Attack. Good luck anyway
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Equaliser Bets today
3.00 Ayr Dubai Icon £2 win at 7/2 Kevin Stott rides
3.00 Ayr Glasses Up £1.20 win at 6/14.00 Ayr Presidential £1.20 win at 6/1
4.00 Ayr The Great Heir £1.20 Win at 6/1 (KS rides)4.30 Ayr So Beloved £1.20 at 8/1
4.20 Pont Ulshaw Bridge £2 win at 5/1
4.20 Pomt Striding Edge 70p win at 16/1= £9.50 staked
PL Napster bets:
4.30 Ayr With Respect 70p win at 10/1
4.20 Pont Twin appeal 45p win at 25/1
4.20 Pont Irv 70p win at 16/15.00 Ayr Autumn Flight £1.20 win at 6/1
4.45 Naas Alexndra College 30p win at 35/1
Total £3.35 on Napster Tips
Total stakes = £12.85
Back later
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A blank day today but not a lot of money lost and I'm very upbeat about the coming weeks
Multiples balance = £678.69 (£800 bank)
Singles a loss of £12.85 hence a balance of £287.33 C/fwd (Bank 3400)
Lots of class action tomorrow, so should be interesting
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5.05 Bev Klipperty Klopp one point win at 20/1 with Bet365
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I counted at least 300 runners today in the UK.
In order to assist will my selections in future, I will be giving out mine, plus my PL picks and PL Naps
Equaliser tips
3.10 Yar Festive Star 15/2 £1.20 win
3.10 Yar Virgin Snow 13/2 £1.20 win4.20 Yar Via Serendipity £2 win at 4.6 (4.4)
4.50 Yar Dashing Roger £2 win at 9/2
4.35 Bev Indian Sounds £2 win at 5.3 = £8.43
My pick of PL Tips
3.35 Bev Ring Of Gold 70p win at 12/1
5.05 Bev Ifton £2 win at 5/1
4.30 San Sparkling Olly £2 win at 4.6 (3.95)
5.30 San rose Grey £2 win at 5.7 = £9.21
6.10 Kel Balranaid 45p win at 22/1
6.40 Kel Aint My Fault £2 win at 5/1
= £17.55 staked
Bacl later with Naps
Too many to consider atm, will have to have a rethink about this
4.35 Bev Kindly 45p at 20/1
4.40 Kel Lovely Schtuff £2 win at 5.1 = £8.04
5.05 Bev Osmosis 45p win at 25/1
Total Napsters stakes = £2.90
Total stakes = £20.45
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A day of mixed fortunes really. My own tips produced two winners. I had one non runner and one bet Sparkling Olly that did not get matched at the off. Oddly enough I feel I have a better approach with the PL Naps for the rest of the month and need to tighten up on the criteria for PL Tips. The PL tips are great because they are available for checking in the evening before racing. Naps can come through any time during the day so that's a bit of an inconvenience but as I said above there are lots of them to sift through.
No multiples today so the balance remains the same at £678.69 (Bank £800)
My singles (with a non runner and and unmatched selection) had returns of £23.43 less stakes £20.45 = + £2.98 profit. At least my balance now is back to £300.18 (Bank £400)
Four meetings tomorrow but most of the races with class action have favourites that are short of my own minimum requirement of 7/2. I have possibilties with a few of the class 4 races though for my own bets
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7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
A bit more impressive than my 1/25 shot !
Funny enough, your 1/25 shot was probably the horse which had the best chance of winning for that day anyway; it's just that the whole world knew about it and it was a horrible price.
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7.10 Kem Scarborough Castle one point win at 141 with BetVictor
Been out all day and stuck in traffic for over four hours (tired)
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54 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
Not very often I make a record, not one to brag about.
Still, I'd rather have a 1/25 winner than a 250/1 loser.
Well despite the exceptional ability of the horse, I think that it was very brave of you to risk £250 to get back £10. This means that you will have to be right 125 times out of 126 in order to break even. Too hot for me ?
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16 minutes ago, BillyHills said:
That must be a record?
Hope The Equaliser had his 50p on!!
Haha, I wondered about backing it each way ?
Seriously, I have decided not to back any selection form now on at under 7/2. IMO it is just not worth it.
As to 50p's my latest bullet proof staking strategy is to place 45p win bets on selections at odds between 17/1 to 25/1. My maximum stake is £2 for selections between 7/2 to 11/2.
One can still lose a tidy sum even with these stakes over a period of time. I'm not ashamed of telling all about my small stakes. I'm just not good enough with my strike rate to up the ante. Pity that Araifjan in the 7.50 at Wolves got beat today, could have got a £120 double. I knew it was doomed when I say that @Valiant Thor napped Fast Spin. should have taken more notice of the racing summaries.Hope your property viewing went well? Are you thinking of moving soon?
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7 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:
2.55 Lingfield - 1pt win Trusty Rusty @ 22/1 Bet365
Absolutely rotten luck to be beaten by a nose; it must have been the weight of my 45p that was too much. This is the second day running that you have been denied a long priced winner by a small margin. Half the month still to go so good luck.
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7.50 Wolv Lucky Lodge one point win at 28/1 with Bet365
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One £2 win double today with poss return of £96.00
4.35 Bath Union Rose £2 win at 4/1
7.50 Wolv Araifjan £1.20 win at 7/1Other bets:
3.35 Bath Tell william 70p win at 11/1
4.05 Bath Princely Power 70p win at 10/1
7.50 Wolv Lucky Lodge 30p win at 28/1
Multiples = £2
Singles = £4.90
Total stakes = £6.90
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One winner today so my double failed. Hence a £2 loss and Balance C/Fwd is £678.69 (Bank £800)
Union Rose drifted out to 13/2 and won so a £10.10 profit on the day. My first winner decided on by a rating factor on the Aussie Racing and Sports website ? The balance c/fwd is now £297.20 (Bank £400)
One class 2 race tomorrow with an 11/8 short priced favourite. Some class 4 races though.
I'm out all morning and much of the afternoon so won't have much time to post up my selections. Good luck to all
Naps - Wednesday 23rd September
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted · Edited by The Equaliser
Sorry I can't see that runner
I found it now. won at 1/4 thanks