The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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Five doubles at £3, One treble at £3 and one at £2e today.
Spoilt for choice today
Doubles:
(1) 1.50 San Union Rose 11/4, 4.0 San Magical Rythms 10/3 = £3 v £48.75
(2) 5.05 Sanj Delicat Kiss 5/2, 5.15 Kel Canforsd Thompson 3/1 =£3 v £42.00
(3) 4.10 Bev Reasure 11/4, 5.35 San Angels Whisper 5/2= £3 v £39.36
(4) 3.45 Yar Khuzaam 11/4, 4.45 Kel Zolfo 9/2 = £3 v £71.49
(5) 3.15 Yar Line Of Reason 4/1, 4.35 San Just The Man 9/4 = £3 v £48.75
Trebles:
(1) 1.50 San Union Rose, 4.0 San Magical Rythms and 5.05 San Delicate Kiss = £3 v £170.61
(2) 4.10 Bev Reasure, 5.15 Kel Canford Thompson and 5.35 San Angels Whisper = £2 v £105
Total stakes = £20.00
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Five doubles at £3, One treble at £3 and one at £2e today.
Spoilt for choice today
Doubles:
(1) 1.50 San Union Rose 11/4, 4.0 San Magical Rythms 10/3 = £3 v £48.75
(2) 5.05 Sanj Delicat Kiss 5/2, 5.15 Kel Canforsd Thompson 3/1 =£3 v £42.00
(3) 4.10 Bev Reasure 11/4, 5.35 San Angels Whisper 5/2= £3 v £39.36
(4) 3.45 Yar Khuzaam 11/4, 4.45 Kel Zolfo 9/2 = £3 v £71.49
(5) 3.15 Yar Line Of Reason 4/1, 4.35 San Just The Man 9/4 = £3 v £48.75
Trebles:
(1) 1.50 San Union Rose, 4.0 San Magical Rythms and 5.05 San Delicate Kiss = £3 v £170.61
(2) 4.10 Bev Reasure, 5.15 Kel Canford Thompson and 5.35 San Angels Whisper = £2 v £105
Total stakes = £20.00
Results Update:
One winner yesterday and nothing coupled so a £16 loss on the day
Original Bank £1,200.00 +£21 = £1221.00 C/Fwd
ROI = 1.75 %
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@MCLARKE Wowee, I'm impressed. I thought that the calculations may be difficult. I truly hope that you are justly rewarded for all your efforts
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@MCLARKE Many thanks for your reply. Bad luck today with Sea Of Mystery being beaten a short head.
Not sure I can work out true chances of place selections based upon assumed winning true chances. I can see that your 9/4 chance has about a 31% chance of winning (though I suspect that there is a substantial part of the over-round attached to it). Anyway, if we had an eight horse race a week before where the first two horses finished one and two where there was just a nose to separate them and they were five lengths clear of the rest of the field , and now it is next week with the same runners lining up against each other over the same course and distance and on the same going all without penalties I can see that the first two have a true 50% chance of winning the race. It seems obvious to me that it is highly likely that either one will win again and that the other one will finish second. I haven't a clue on how to calculate the percentage chance of either one being 3rd or 4th. I do appreciate that having a 4th place is better than just having a 3rd place but calculating the percentages escapes me
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7.30 Newc Tora Dorado 1 point win at 6.5 BetVictor 11.01am
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Three doubles and two treble today.
Once more into the breach
Doubles:
(1) 2.10 Yar Foad 4/1, 4.0 Red Star Shield 3/1 = £6 v £120.00
(2) 2.20 Chep Paths Of Glory 11/4, 5.10 Yar Merry Banter 5/2= £6 v £78.72
(3) 3.30 Red Golden Parade 11/4, 7.30 Newc Tora Dorado 11/2 = £4 v £97.48
Trebles:
(1) 2.10 Yar Foad, 2.20 Chep Paths Of Glory and 4.0 Red Star Shield £2 v £162.50
(2) 3.30 Red Golden Parade, 5.10 Yar Merry Banter and 7.30 Newc Torado Dorado = £2 v £170.62
Total stakes = £20.00
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Three doubles and two treble today.
Once more into the breach
Doubles:
(1) 2.10 Yar Foad 4/1, 4.0 Red Star Shield 3/1 = £4 v ££80.00
(2) 2.20 Chep Paths Of Glory 11/4, 5.10 Yar Merry Banter 5/2= £4 v £52.48
(3) 3.30 Red Golden Parade 11/4, 7.30 Newc Tora Dorado 11/2 = £4 v £97.48
Trebles:
(1) 2.10 Yar Foad, 2.20 Chep Paths Of Glory and 4.0 Red Star Shield £2 v £162.50
(2) 3.30 Red Golden Parade, 5.10 Yar Merry Banter and 7.30 Newc Torado Dorado = £2 v £170.62
Total stakes = £16.00
Results Update:
Only one second today so a £10 loss on the day
Original Bank £1,200.00 +£37 = £1237.00 C/Fwd
ROI = 3.08 %
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@MCLARKE What I meant was that if your pure mathematics showed a selection the night before being offered by the bookies on Oddschecker at say 3/1 or 4.0 and in the morning it was now being offered at say 5/1 or 6.0 then you have to be suspicious that although the odds look very tempting that something is very wrong with the selection. The bookies don't give away odds out of the kindness of their hearts.
Also, I am a bit confused when you say about making a profit on each individual bet. Take your selection yesterday 1.50 Worc Ben Light 7/4f £10 EW. It finished 2nd. Hence, I figure that you lost £10 on the win bet and gained £3.50 (1/5 x 7/4) on the place bet = a loss of £6.50 for the day. I only mentioned 5/1 because a loss on the win bet would be covered by £10 on the place bet returning 10x 5=£50/5 = £10. Maybe I'm missing something that you can explain?
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@Craig bluenose The usual place odds for 8/9 runners is 1/5 odds. Also, 4 places in handicaps are for 16 runners or more. Normally one would need odds of 5/1 or more for a true cover bet.
Hope this helps
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@MCLARKE Interesting that you do it with no form study at all. Still might be worthwhile taking account of market movements on Oddschecker particularly the night before racing, in the morning and in the run up to the race itself. I know it is difficult to predict which may the betting market might turn but I rather feel that if my selection is being shunned by the market, especially, the ones at shorter odds e.g. 3/1 - 5/1 then someone in the know has the knowledge that the horse will run very poorly despite all the hype in the racing press.
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4.30 Thsk Florenza 1 point win at 6.0 Marathon bet 10.18am
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Two doubles and treble today.
A load of short priced favourites or class 6 races that I don’t participate in.
Doubles:
(1) 1.40 Bri Whataguy 3/1, 3.40 Bri Juanito Chico 5/2 = £8 v £112.00
(2) 2.50 Worc Theo, 4.30 Thrsk Florenza 4/1= £8 v £160.00
Treble:
(1) 1.40 Bri Whatguy, 3.40 Bri Juanito Chico and 4.30 Thrsk Florenza £4 v £280.00
Total stakes = £20.00
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Two doubles and treble today.
A load of short priced favourites or class 6 races that I don’t participate in.
Doubles:
(1) 1.40 Bri Whataguy 3/1, 3.40 Bri Juanito Chico 5/2 = £4 v £56.00
(2) 2.50 Worc Theo, 4.30 Thrsk Florenza 4/1= £4 v £80.00
Treble:
(1) 1.40 Bri Whatguy, 3.40 Bri Juanito Chico and 4.30 Thrsk Florenza £2 v £140.00
Total stakes = £10.00
Results Update:
Only one winner yesterday so a £16 loss on the day
Original Bank £1,200.00 + 47 = £1247.00 C/Fwd
ROI = 3.91 %
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@MCLARKE It is supposed to be mathematical but hey, I've never done any in depth study on it. I think I would rather place two bets to win rather than place one each way
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On 9/14/2019 at 1:02 PM, Craig bluenose said:
As long as one of you can pick winners use what system you like. Treading water here. Need to Win. Lol.
@Craig bluenose Sorry to learn that you are treading water. It may be better for you to check out the "Daily Naps" for contenders. You will find a lot more selections than in the £20 daily challenge.
I have copied a link to this for you if you want to take a look. If you bookmark it then you can find the day's current naps by scrolling down the page.
https://forum.punterslounge.com/forum/192-nap-of-the-day-competition/
Just a thought.
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4.30 Bath Victoriano 7.0 Bet365 10.49
Has drifted in the market which is worrying, but drifters do win
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Three doubles and two two trebles today and one win bet
Doubles:
(1) 3.20 Bath Princess Way 11/4, 5.45 Bath Arctic Sea 3/1 = £4 v £60.00
(2) 23.45 Ffos Madeline Bond 10/3, 5.0 Ffos Cambric 11/4 = £4 v £65.00
(3) 2.15 Bath Airbrush 3/1, 4.30 Bath Victoriano 6/1 = £4 v £112.00
Trebles:
(1) 3.20 Bath Princess Way, 3.45 Ffos Madellimne Bond and 5.45 Bath Arctic Sea £2 v £130.00
(2) 2.15 Bath Airbrush, 4.30 Bath Victoriano and 5.0 Ffos Cambric = £2 v £227.50
Total stakes = £16.00
4.30 Bath Victoriano £4 win at 7.0 Bet 365 = £24 poss return
= Total £20
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Three doubles and two two trebles today.
Doubles:
(1) 3.20 Bath Princess Way 11/4, 5.45 Bath Arctic Sea 3/1 = £4 v £60.00
(2) 23.45 Ffos Madeline Bond 10/3, 5.0 Ffos Cambric 11/4 = £4 v £65.00
(3) 2.15 Bath Airbrush 3/1, 4.30 Bath Victoriano 6/1 = £4 v £112.00
Trebles:
(1) 3.20 Bath Princess Way, 3.45 Ffos Madellimne Bond and 5.45 Bath Arctic Sea £2 v £130.00
(2) 2.15 Bath Airbrush, 4.30 Bath Victoriano and 5.0 Ffos Cambric = £2 v £227.50
Total stakes = £16.00
Results Update:
Top class races, top class selections but only one winner yesterday.
£20 loss on the day
Original Bank £1,200.00 + 63 = £1263.00 C/Fwd
ROI = 5.25 %
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@MCLARKE Do your place bets make money on their own account? I don't like place betting but I read once that one can make money if place money is put on races with precisely 8 or 9 runners; don't know if this is true?
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4.25 Ches Humble Gratitude 1 point win at 5.5 Bet365 11.13am
This was showing at 4.5 yesterday evening and so a bit worrying that the price has drifted a bit. Never mind on a day when the bookies seem to be giving away very little in prices this is the best I can do
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Four doubles and two two trebles today.
Loads of terribly short priced favourites today; I nearly didn’t do my second double. The bookies want it every which way but loose.
Doubles:
(1) 4.00 Ling Reloaded 10/3, 4.10 Don Kingbroojk 5/2 = £4 v £60.64
(2) 2.05 Ches Ben Vrackie 7/4, 2.40 Ches Celestial Force 2/1 = £4 v £33.00
(3) 3.45 Bat Count Otto 11/4, 4.25 Ches Humble Gratitude 4/1 = £4 v £75.00
(4) 2.10 Chelm Intuitive 5/2, 3.20 Chelm In The Cove 11/4 = £4 v £52.48
Trebles:
(1) 2.05 ches Ben Vrackie, 4.0 Lin Reloaded and 4.10 don Kingbrook =£2 v £83.40
(2) 2.40 Ches e;estial Force, 3.45 Bath Count Otto and 4.25 ches Humble Gratitude = £2 v £123.74
Total stakes = £20.00
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Four doubles and two two trebles today.
Loads of terribly short priced favourites today; I nearly didn’t do my second double. The bookies want it every which way but loose.
Doubles:
(1) 4.00 Ling Reloaded 10/3, 4.10 Don Kingbroojk 5/2 = £4 v £60.64
(2) 2.05 Ches Ben Vrackie 7/4, 2.40 Ches Celestial Force 2/1 = £4 v £33.00
(3) 3.45 Bat Count Otto 11/4, 4.25 Ches Humble Gratitude 4/1 = £4 v £75.00
(4) 2.10 Chelm Intuitive 5/2, 3.20 Chelm In The Cove 11/4 = £4 v £52.48
Trebles:
(1) 2.05 ches Ben Vrackie, 4.0 Lin Reloaded and 4.10 don Kingbrook =£2 v £83.40
(2) 2.40 Ches e;estial Force, 3.45 Bath Count Otto and 4.25 ches Humble Gratitude = £2 v £123.74
Total stakes = £20.00
Results Update:
No doubles yesterday so a £20 loss on the day
Original Bank £1,200.00 + 83 = £1283.00 C/Fwd
ROI = 6.91 %
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@MCLARKE Well, keep tweaking your strategy and I'm sure you will improve. Well done for hanging in there. A lot of people just give up when if they kept the faith a bit longer then they would start winning the battle. One has to work very hard to win money at betting, trust me, I know.
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Naps - Wednesday 18th Sept
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
4.45 Kel Zolfo 1 point win at 5.5 Bet365 10.11am