The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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TODAY'S TRIXIE
All at Newmarket
2.45 (10) Spirit Ridge 5/1, 3.55 (13) Embour 13/2 and 5.35 (3) Ventura Knight 9/2 = £4 stake with a potential return of £366.72
My lay bet today is 2.35 Beverley (5) Shawaaheq £4.21 @ 2.02 = £4 v -£4.29 should it win
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
No win yesterday
Original bank £500 less Trixies £13.61 and other bets -£8.91 = £477.48 C/Forward -
TODAY'S TRIXIE
Not much in the way of class races where I can achieve the odds I like, however I have managed to make my selections in one class 3 race and two class 4 races.
2.55 Market Rasen (5) Blushing Red 5/1, 3.05 Brighton (3) Lightening Charlie 7/2 and 6.20 Hayd ((3) Felix 3/1 = £4 outlay with a potemtial return of £177.00
I haven't got a back to lay bet yet and thinking about it I will prefer to suggest just a "lay" bet on most weekdays as there aren't generally enough higher class races with fancied runners at the longer odds. My bet will be for £4.21 at a max of 2.42 so as to yield £4 if the horse loses or a max of £5.98 should it win. I may choose to select my price in-running on some occasions.
TRIXIE RESULTS
Yesterday produced nothing but luckily my "back to lay" bet got matched in running but unfortunately it didn't win.
Original bank £500 less £9.61 Trixies and other bets -£8.91 = £491.48 carried forward.
Have a good day, I know I will. -
I couldn't get 11.5 for Zig Zag Zyggy and since I have to go out soon I settled for £3 at 11.00 This means I have put in a £3 Lay bet in running at 9.4 which would produce £4.56 if it wins. It also means that I am seeking a 5 clicks shortening in price as opposed to 3. I will see how it gets on
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TODAY'S TRIXIE
3.20 Ripon (5) Aiya 5/2, 4.0 Ham (8) Vive La difference 7/2, and 4.10 Hayd (1) Youkan 7/2 = £4 stake with a potential return of £122.60
I have put in aback/lay bet of £3 on Zig Zag Zyggy at 11.50 4.30 Ham (currently 9.8); this can cook all day. If matched I will lay £3 at £10 to recoup £4.27 if it wins.
Have a good day, I know I will -
TRIXIE RESULT UPDATE
One winner and one second beaten by 3/4 length both at cramped odds. No points scored today.
Original Bank £500 less £5.61 Trixies and £8.91 other = £485.48 Carried Forward. -
TODAYS TRIXIE
3.0 N Abb (2) Passing Call (5/2);4.00 Font (3) Not A Role Model 3/1 and 5.10 N Abb (6) Inspireus 5/1 = £4 staked with potential return of £143.00
I don't have a back to lay bet yet but will let but will let everyone know if I find one.
Have a good day, I know I will -
I think it will be easier for me to post up results in the evening and Trixie bets late morning from now on.
I had one winner today which was Steel Wave at 3/1. I was feeling a bit miffed by not including Handy Hollow in my Trixie so when it came to the 3rd leg of the Trixie I decided to cash out for £4.14 when I had the opportunity. The 5.50 at Newcastle was a class 6 Handicap race with 14 runners whereas my selections at Bangor were in class 4 races. Hence a 14p profit on the day for the Trixie. As you may have guessed I didn't get my back to lay bet matched on Handy Hollow. Also, I am thinking of keeping a log of the sequences on my Trixies that may be useful. It would read LLLLLDLLC (where D stands for Double and C stands for Cash out. "T" when it happens would stand for Treble. My Trixie balance stands at -£1.61 so that's not bad going for 7 losses, a double and a cash out is it? I have moved the £9.27 Lay loss on to the back/lay side so as not to distort my Trixie account.
Hence; Original bank £500 less (£1.61) Trixies and (£8.91) Back/Lay bets = £489.48 balance carried forward.
Bit of a mixed bag of races tomorrrow; hopefully the weather will not play havoc with finding selections. -
Hi Guys, I have cashed out for £4.05 on my Trixie; apologies to all my fans but after all I am the Equaliser
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Sorry, two selections at Bangor (where the bets racing is today; Class 4 and one at Newcastle
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No joy again yesterday with my Trixie. I am forever fascinated by the workings of the market forces. I didn't get my back to lay bet matched at 12 as the available price of 9.6 on Something Exciting got smashed and it ended up being favourite at 5/1;finished 11th beaten 6 1/4 lengths. Another horse of mine Frosted Lass was trading at around 4.0 in the morning and then went past 5.5 in the run up to the race; it finished 5th at 4/1 beaten 4 lengths. Hence, the market got it wrong in the first instance and right in the second. Whilst we are all are affected by market moves I am not so sure that we can overly depend on them.
Original bank £500 less £11.02 on Trixies and £0.36 on back/lay bets = £489.34 cumulative balance.
My Trixie today is all at Bangor. 2.00 (1) Dounyapour, 3.30 (1) Steel Wave and 5.50 Newc (2) Life Knowledge = £4 stake with a potential £98.94 The prices are a bit skinny for my liking but my other fancies Delface in the 3.00 and Handy Hollow in the 4.00 do not seem to be getting good market support.
I have put in a Back to Lay bet on Handy Hollow for £3 at 10.5 in the 4.00 Bangor (Currently trading at 7.6) so I won't hold my breath in the hope that the price will get matched. -
No joy yesterday and only £0.36 gained on Mayfair Spirit.
Original Bank £500 less -£7.02 on Trixies and plus £0.36 on back to lay bets = £493.34.
Todays Trixie is all at Thirsk. 3.15 (12) Someone Exciting, 4.15 (1) Remember The Days and 5.15 (3) Frosted Lass = £4 stake and potential Return of £237.48
I am struggling to find a back to lay bet. I have put in £3 on Someone Exciting at 12 but it is currently trading at 9.6 so I may have to cancel the bet before I go off to lunch. -
Just for the record I have cashed out on my "back to lay" bet today. This means that I will win £0.4 or £0.36 should Mayfair Spirit lose. As mentioned before I should have placed £3 (max £4) on the horse last night. I know this seems trivial but I like to correct mistakes when I make them. It is of course possible for me to find another "Back to Lay" bet later if my Trixie goes pear shaped. And, of course I will advise this prior to the off if I do.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code
Don't know if you will find this interesting.
I find it fascinating from the point of view that this seems to go on today. This seems to be why one can see half a million matched on an ordinary race on an ordinary day in the UK.
I don't understand how the big traders do it. Once people start talking about algorithms I tend to give up.
Anyway, fascinating stuff
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I was one length away from at least an extra £200 yesterday and being smothered in glory. Having got the first two in on my Trixie it was down to Broome to deliver in the Derby. I didn't know that the horse plays up in the stalls, possibly why they put it in last. Anyway this did not help its cause as it was slowly away. Funny enough it seemd to be coming again at the end of the race so maybe it will be a good one for the St Leger. I am glad that Seamie Hefferman won for Aiden O'Brien, perhaps I should have listened to Ed Chambers on Sky Sports who frequengtly tips the big race winners.
At least I got a double in which was £30.25 less £4 = £26.25. Sonce I will be puting up a "Back to Lay" bet instead of a "lay" bet in future I have decided to offset my £9.27 accumulated "Lay"loss balance against the Trixie balance. This means that my original balance of £500 now stands at £496.98 with -£3.02 on Trixies and nil on "back to Lay" bets.
My "back to lay bet" did get matched in-running yesterday and funny enough Mark Johnston didn't get the winner with any of his three runners.
I have just realised that I have made a mistake in staking on my "Back to lay" bet today. I put £2 on it and it should have been £3. This is because I quite often try to get a reduced price by puting in a larger stake to begin with in the hope of getting the lay price matched before the off. Because I trade on Betfair it means that I would have to put another £2 on the selection at reduced odds and then trade out. This being so I will take a chance of losing £2 instead of £4.
With only two UK meetings today I ddn't think I would find a Trixie bet but as luck would have it I have.
This is as follows: 3.20 Nott (4) Mayfair Spirit 4/1, 4.10 Fakenham (4) Fifty shades 7/2 and 4.30 Nottingham (6) Burford Brown 5/1. This has a potential return of £214.50 for a £4 stake.
Mayfair Spirit looked too big at 7.40 on Betfair last night and I placed £2 on it and it got matched. As stated above I should have put £3 on it. Never mind, I put in a "lay" bet of £2 at 5.2 so as to recover £4.18 should it get matched in running (oddly enough sports book is offering 4/1 however it is trading at 6.8 on Betfair)
Have a good day, I know I will -
Hi Systemight and EC
Sorry if I got the wrong end of the stick about laying a favourite along with an outsider.
I have a multilay calculator which I can input horses in combination at various odds to arrive at different outcomes should say two lose or if one should win.
I put some figures in for a horse at even money with one other horse at 20, 10 and 5. I used 100 points for each race and my results do not allow for commission to keep it all simple.
At odds of 2.0 and 20, I stake £90.91 at 2.0 & £9.09 at 20 The outcome is - £82 should either horse win or £100 if both lose. At odds of 2.0 and 10, I stake £83.33 at 2.0 & £16.67 at 10.0. The outcome is -£67 should either horse win or £100 if both lose. At odds of 2.0 and 5.0 I stake £71.43 at 2.0 & £28.57 at 5.0 The outcome is -£43 should either horse wins or £100 if both lose
Interestingly enough I thought it may be a good idea to give an example of a lay bet with another at 3.0; after all the horse should stand a 33% chance of winning if the odds were true and, even better a 67% chance of losing.
At odds of 3.0 & 20 I stake £86.96 at 3.0 & 13.04 at 20. The outcome is -£161 should either horse win or £100 if both lose. At odds of 3.0 & 10.0 I stake £76.92 at 3.0 & 23.08 at 10.0 The outcome is -£131 should either horse win or £100 if both lose. At odds of 3.0 & 5.0 I stake £62.50 at 3.0 & £37.50 at 5.0. The outcome is -£88 should either horse win or £100 if both lose.
Whilst I still can't see how to make a million usung this strategy what does appeal to me is staking £83.33 at 2.0 and £16.67 at 10.0. Although I will lose £67 should either horse win I will gain £100 (less commission) when I am right. Definitely food for thought.
Many thanks for your comments.
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Nothing ran well at Carlisle yesterday, therefore a nil return.
Original Bank £500 now stands at £470.73 with =£20 on Trixie and -£9.27 on Lay bets
Today's Trixie is 2.35Epsom (3) Anna Nerium 4/1, 3.25 Muss(6)Just Benjamin 9/2 and 4.30 Epsom (3) Broome 6/1 = possible return £319 for a £4 stake. Whilst one can never exclude any of Aiden O'Brien's horses when they run against each other I would be very surpised if Donnacha O'Brien has chosen the wrong horse to ride in the Derby.
I have made an early doors "Back to Lay" bet in the 2.00 at Epsom. I have backed (3) Victory Command for £2 at 13.00 which has been matched. I have put in a lay bet for £2 at 10.5 in-running if neceesary to gain £4.75 for a free bet. I will be very disappointed if if the horse cannot run to a price of 10.5 at some stage either pre-race or in-running. -
Hi Guys,
I will post up my daily Trixie here as well as in the Forum on Betfair.
I am including my results thus, for transparity which have not been fruitful yet.
Since this site is more associated with betting than laying I will substitute my insurance bet with a "back to lay" bet rather than a "lay" bet.
Another blank day with Markazi getting close to get 2nd by a neck at 11/4.
I have c0ontrated my Trixe today at Carlisle which has Heavy Ground. I have left Epsom alone.
Original bank £500 now £474.73 Trixies - £16; Lay bets - £9.27, Back bets = Nil
1.40 Carlisle (1) Pavers Pride 5/1, 2.15 (10) Lexikon 9/2 and 2.50 (9) Accross The Sea 4/1 = potential return £255.48
If I get nothing on teh first two I may come back with a back to lay bet later. -
I will come back to this later.
Meanwhile I will attempt to post my Trixie selections in a daily racing chat thread as suggested by Admin
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Well, when it comes to staking plans my hero of all time has to be Phil Bull of Timeform fame. He used to get loads of people writing in to him with lots of hair brained schemes. All he used to do was re-arrange the sequence of winners and losers and prove that they were all faulty. He used to say that if selections could not show a profit using level stakes then no amount of juggling about with increased staking would work.
I rather favour staking in accordance with a horse's chance of success so as to cushion the ups and downs of results. However, although this means that if I had a £100 bank I would be placing say £20 on a 5/1 shot, £2 on a fancied 50/1 outsider and £50 on an even money shot one would be foolish not to allow for an increased bank so as to accomodate the winning and losing sequences even say on even money shots.
Once again as you mentioned above it is very difficult to determine what is say a true 50% chance and ripping a bookmaker's arm off to get a 2/1 price about it.
One would have to develop a criteria that shows over a period of time that given specific conditions a horse will win say 50%, 40%, 30%, 20% and possibly 10% of the time. Then one could just request higher odds (if backing) and be guranteed to make money.
There are so many variables when it comes to a horse being entered into one of the many types of races over courses that are very different up and down the country I don't think that it can be done. If you find anyone who is able to do it then please let me know?
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An interesting proposition Systemight, however the liability on the outsider could be such that if it did win (which it would do now and again) then it would wipe out all previous gains. For example (Ignoring commission) if you laid £10 on the favourite at evens and say £20 on the outsider at say 20/1 so as to make a good profit should the jolly old favourite get beat then should the favourite win yo would lose £10 and gain £20 less commision (net) on the outsider. However, come the day that the outsider trots up and wins then you would gain £10 on the favourite and lose £400 on the outsider. Hence, 39 times you would have to get it right to allow for the day when you lose. I don't know how this chap made his million pounds but he sure must have had a great method of avoiding outsiders winning.
I sincerely hope that you stick to backing horses in the future as you have done up to now.
This doesn't seem to me a sure fired way of making money by laying horses.
Many thanks for your thoughts; it is only by exchanging ideas that we make progress in our battle to make money in this betting game.
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Well good luck with that Snoopdog; I tend not to go against horses at less than 1.70. If I did, I would still need to see vulnerabilty in the favourite plus at least two other horses as main live contenders neither of them being offerred at odds exceeding 10.0. This is a tough ask.
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Very many thanks for your very down to earth advice.
I am not so much interested in a strike rate for my "lay"bets but far more interested in matching my bets at a price which reflects value. I also adjust my stakes according to odds so as to in effect even out successes to failures over a long period of time.
As far as I'm concerned if my "back" selections were say 2/1 then, if I was seeking value I would try and back three 2/1 chances at higher odds so as to get it. This being so, I would ask for something like 3/1 or 4.0 for each horse.
One still has the problem of determining what is a true 2/1 chance though when making selections.
It seems easier for me to find possible weaknesses in a horse's chance of success as opposed to calculating a specific chance of it winning.
Since this Forum does not seem to support much in the way of "laying" I have reactivated my blog on teh Betfair Exchange Forum where Ironically I am now posting up a daily Trixie which is meant to be paid for by either "Lay" or "Back" bets.
I use the name of "The Equalser" should anyone be interested?
Once again, many thanks for the warm welcome given to me.
The Equaliser
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Hi Billy,
Many thanks for your reply.
Understandable if the Forum doesn't have too many layers; do you know one that has?
I do back horses as well.
My favourite bet is a daily £1 Trixie bet on Sports Book.
The liability is just £4 but the rewards are much greater if all three come in.
I can start a different topic called "Daily Trixie" and start posting from tomorrow or Monday.
I can't guarantee a posting every day as sometimes I get occupied with other things.
This could be interesting for your members.
I can make the selections and post them up each day and keep a running tally on profitability. If I miss a day I just will pick up from my previous day's total.
I rarely cash out on the second leg should the first horse win as the return is awful. I sometimes I cash out on the 3rd leg bet if I can recover my £4 stake. If the first two horses lose then I place a £2 stake on the third horse to recover my Trixie stake. I don't usually pick selections at a price less than 3/1 so should the first two horses lose then I can usually recover my multiples stake if teh third horse wins. Just as an extra bit of meaness, I generally put a lay bet in on the 3rd horse so as to retrieve my stake of £4 but also set the odds so that if the horse gets matched in-running but doesn't win I get my initial stake of £2 back.
If you think that people on the Forum may be interested in this then I can start posting up soon
Regards,
The Equaliser
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Hi Guys,
I am just wonderring if anyone is interested in helping me with daily analysis to find decent "lay" bets at short odds between 1.7 - 4.0 for lay betting purposes.
The night before racing I can list about between 20 - 30 horses for usual racing days and of course there are more on a Saturday. I use Betfair and cross check with Oddschecker making a note of the lowest and highest price bearing in mind that the Bookies don't like to offer generous odds about anything at that time of night.
Anyway, the analysis involves cheking out track suitability, weight, draw (if applicable) mark, pace, distance, going and class. There also has to be at least two other horses in the race who are considered to be live contenders whose individual odds do not exceed 10.0.
This is not rocket science and at this time of year "form book" analysts quite often get slaughtered in trying to either find winners or losers until the flat form truly sorts itself out.
I must admit that one has to be bold sometimes e.g. I laid Ten Sovereigns in teh 2,000 guineas because it was well known about its stamina problems but its price was short because a lot of people thought that its calss would see it though to win. I also found it intersting that Istimraar was running for Dan Skelton last night in teh 6.10 at Worcester; it was 4/5 favourite and even teh commentators were expressing doubts about it winning this handicap chase. But just because it was a Skelton horse the short price remained even in-running for a very long while during the race.
There are very many horses that run at cramped odds that are poor value for money where when the basic criteria above is applied they do not represent a good bet but instead a good opportunity to "lay" and make some money.
I could possibly analyse one meeting and come up with suggestions of good "lay" bets whilst others could analyse other meetings. Obviously the horse(s) with the least going for them at the shortest prices are the ones to "Lay".
If anyone is interested in carrying out a bit of the work and sharing thenm please let me know?
Regards,
The Equaliser
Daily Trixie paid for by a Back To Lay bet if it fails
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
TODAY'S TRIXIE
3.20 Perth Green Zone, 3.40 Godwood Orinswift, 5.15 Goodwood Sir Busker = £4 staked with a potential win of £255.48
TRIXIE RESULTS
No win yesterday
Original Bank £500 less £17.61 Trixies and £13.20 on other bets = £469.19 C/Forward
No lay bet today. I will be running separate thread for these from tomorrow as this seem confusing to a lot of people