The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
5.15 Rip (4) Montalvan 3/1, 5.20 Nb (8) George William 7/2, 5.35 NM (8) Qutob 3/1 = £20 stake with a potential return of £620.00
No time for reasons for selections today
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
4th 3/1, 3rd 15/8F and 3rd 5/2F So much for fancied horses doing well in the summer months
Original Bank £2,538.61 less £280 = £2,258.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
3.15 Hayd(1) The Night Watch 11/4, 4.40NB (1) Lucky Louie (3/1), 5.15 NB (3) Crystal Casque (11/4) = £20 stake with a potential return of £501.56I
THE NIGHT WATCH seems in excellent form. I couldn’t decide between Tenax and Pembleton marginally favouring Pembleton 3lbs better off for ¾ length; not convinced that Tenax will be superior again. Therefore I’m hoping that The Night Watch’s form will prove stronger
LUCKY LOUIE has been knocking at the door and I hope that today is his turn for a win
CRYSTAL CASQUE is ina very competitive race and in a way, if Jungle Juice wins then I can’t really complain.
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
No Trixie, yesterday hence the bank remains the same.
Original Bank £2,538.61 less £260 = £2,278.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A
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NO TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
I could only find 4 suitable day time races today but the odds of the favourites are around 2/1 so I’ll pass. There are a couple of races at Ffos Las 8.00 & 8.30 where I may find a back to lay selection but not enough choices for me to find a Trixie today.
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
Last 11/4F, 8th 11/4F and Won 9/4F by a begrudging nose
Original Bank £2,538.61 less £260 = £2,278.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
3.50 Uttox (3) Supreme Steel 7/2. 4.30 Catt (5) The Defiant 3/1 and 5.30 Yar (2) Hart Stopper (5/2) = £20 stake with a potertial win of £553.6
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
No Trixie yesterday so bank remains the same
Original Bank £2,538.61 less £240 = £2,298.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A
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NO TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
I could only find 5 races to check through today 3 class 4 and 2 class 5; nothing inspires me to put any of the selections in a Trixie today
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
One winner 3/1, a 3rd 9/2 and a 2nd 11/2 so no cigar. At least I got my money back with a back/lay on Sash in the 7.0 at Windsor (not included in the Trixie bet)
Original Bank £2,538.61 less £240 = £2,298.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
2.05 Ayr (1) Tomily 9/2, 5.10 Ayr (2) Four Kingdoms 7/2 and 6.40 Wolv (5) With Caution = £4 stake with the potential return of £978.60.
Reasons for selections:
TOMILY running well; Scuzeme also running well but Art of Unity seems to be running a furlong too far.
FOUR KINGDOMS is a CD winner in form, Arms of The Angel well supported though
WITH CAUTION another CD winner running well; Wild Eric is in poor form so I don’t know who is backing it; Mendoza is having a first go on Tapeta
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
No Trixie bet yesterday so bank remains the same.
Original Bank £2,538.61 less £200 = £2,318.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A
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NO TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
Only three class 3 races today and two of them with shorter odds than I like. The C4’s are not much better so I’ll give the Trixie’s a miss today.
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
A fourth at 3/1, an 8th at 9/4f and a winner at 2/1F so all well-fancied selections but not even a double achieved. My other bets almost paid for the Trixie so it’s not all bad.
Original Bank £2,538.61 less £200 = £2,318.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
2.40 YK (7) Weekender 5/2, 2.55 NM (2) Kings Command 3/1 and 4.00 (2) Beat The Bank 5/2 = £20 stake with a potential return of £446.20. I think that Weekender is too short and I’m hoping its price will drift a bit so as to increase the potential return
Reason for selections
All top class selections today but I’m hoping that the form of Weekender will prove better than that of Gold Mount
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
One 2nd beaten neck 10/3, 7th 9/2JF, and 3rd 3/1F
Original Bank £2,538.61 less £180 = £2,338.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
3.35 NM (3) One Master 5/2, 4.45 NM (3) Breathtaking Look 4/1, York 5.30 (1) Irreverent 3/1 = £20 stake with a potential return of £607.40
Reason fro selections: no time today
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
No Trixie yesterday so ban remains the same.
Original Bank £2,538.61 less £180 = £2,358.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A
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NO TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
Winner 10/3, 5th 4/1 and 5th 4/1
Original Bank £2,538.61 less £180 = £2,358.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
4.20 Yar (1)Raucus 5/2, 7.45 KM (2) Victory Chime 7/2 and 8.15 Km (13) Blazon 4/1 = £4 staked with potential return of £672.40
Reasons for selections:
RAUCUS has more class2 experience
VICTORY CHIME has arguably been running better than Get Back Get Back
BLAZON I am hoping that Sylevster will work the oracle and get this one back on track
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
One 4th 9/2, 4th 5/2 and 4th 4/1
Original Bank £2,538.61 less £160 = £2,378.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
4.0 Wolv(3) Poets Pride 5/2, 5.15 Ponte (5) Quoteline Direct 3/1 & 8.20 Uttox (4) Farmer Boy 9/2) = £20 stake with potential return of £661.20
Reasons for selections:
POETS PRIDE is in terrific form and can defy a 7lb rise in the weights.
QUOTELINE DIRECT won the race last year and is weighted almost to be on equal terms with Edgar Alan Poe. Did not have a clear run in that race and I am hopeful will come out on top today
FARMER BOY has solid credentials and is taken to beat the market hotpot Oscar Maguire. Mrs Miggins has to be feared
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
Complete disaster today; 9th 9/2, last 7/2 and 9th 9/2. I even got it wrong with my back/lay in the third leg. Let#s forget it and move on
Original Bank £2,538.61 less £140 = £2,398.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
2.15 Worc (5) The Manuscript (4/1), 7.10 Rip (8) Ventura Royal 5/1 and 8.40 Rip (2) Fairy Fast 5/2 = £4 stake with the potential return of £867.40
Reasons for selections:
No time for this today
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
One third 3/1, one winner (just) 11/8f and one 4th at 7/2 hence a losing day. I noticed that Sportsbook was offering me to take a hit of £7 if I wanted to cash out on the 3rd leg versus a potential profit of £56 so I just went along for the ride. One bot of luck was that I got home in time for the 2.30 at Ayr and made a back/lay bet on Five Helmets. Luckily this paid off with a winner and I received £20.70 to pay for my Trixie. This does not affect my Trixie figures though, just my real bank account.
Original Bank £2,538.61 less £120 = £2,418.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
2.00 Ayr (7) Magic Twist 11/4, 4.40 Ayr (2) Global Spirit 9/4, 4.50 (2) Asylo 5/2 = £4 stake with a potential return of £396.60
Reasons for selections:
Not much to choose from today but I have found the best ones. The odds are a bit skinny but I hope that BOG will be of some help. I will be a bit choked if Five Helmets wins the 2.30 at Ayr as I do fancy that one
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
One 3rd 10/3, 11th 7/2J and 2nd 7/4F; did a back/Lay on this one £10 @ 3.95 and £21.05@ 1.47 although only beaten a neck I had real difficulty in getting my 1.47 price matched. Luckily I did
Original Bank £2,538.61 less £100 = £2,438.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A
Nb made an error on my balances from 1st July but is now corrected.
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
3.0 San (8) Muchly, 3.15 HD (1) First Eleven 4.10 San (5) Magical Wish = £20 stake with potential return £501.40
Reasons for selections:
No time for explanations today
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
No luck back/lay on Reputation. Drifted in the market and got out of the trade. Yet another horse that got loaded into the stalls last and almost fell out. Ran on well at the finish
Original Bank £2,478.61 less £20 = £2,458.61 C/Fwd
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
3.45 N.Ab. (8) Musical Stardust, 5.50 Hayd(2) Pioneering 8.30 Hayd ( 1) Reputation = £20 stake with a potential return of £727.80
Reasons for selections:
MUSICAL STARDUST Running well and has the assistance of Jonjo ONeil Jr.
PIONEERING Down in grade and the trainer is in great form. Mr Coco Bean is feared most.
REPUTATION Has a lot of weight but is the class act.
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
Two fourths and a 6th today so didn’t get in a blow. I did a back/lay on with caution at 5.0 with a lay bet at 2.88 but this failed as it came 4th at 7/2
Original Bank £2,498.61 less £20 = £2,478.61 C/Fwd
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
6.05 EPS (6) Tapis Libre 11/4, 7.15 (7) Highland Acclaim 7/2 and 8.00 Newb (3) With Caution = £20 stake with a potential return of £620.00
Reasons for selections:
TAPIS LIBRE Looks like coming into form and should win this race again despite being 11 years old now
HIGHLAND ACCLAIM needs to bounce back and Epsom is the place to do it
WITH CAUTION Looks to have a good chance of running well. Timeform and Sporting Life promoting Lady Dancealot but I’m not convinced
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
Two seconds and a third yesterday. Well done to Tribal Warrior, very strange that my horse went to 1.02 in running but got beaten a length.
Original Bank £2,518.61 less £20 = £2,498.61 C/Fwd
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
3.30 Mus (1) Raselasad 10/3, 4.40 Thrsk (1) Wentworth Falls, 5.20 Worc (5) Skinflint = £20 stake with a potential return of £750.40
Reasons for selections:
Raselasad Good recent form and is taken to beat Tribal Warrior who has been off for over a year.
Wentworth Falls has the form to win as long as it does not leave it too late for its run.
Skinflint 0/8 under rules but ran well in a recent chase and let’s hope it does well back over timber.
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
No bet yesterday so the bank balance remains the same
Original Bank £2,538.61 less £20 = £2,518.61 C/Fwd
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NO TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
Unlike yesterday I just can’t find three selections today worthy of a Trixie bet today.
I am attempting three back to lay bets 5.0 Bri Pink Flamingo £[email protected] & £10 @ 5.2 (unmatched) Essaka a big danger. 7.15 Strat Inkmaster £10@ 7.6 & £10 @ 5.4 (unmatched) and 8.0 Chep Akavit £10@ 9.2 (matched) & £10 @ 7.0 for £20.90 in running.
I like the look of Never Be Enough in 4.15 Hamilton despite going up in grade.
With all the dangers lurking for the above selections I don’t feel that a Trixie would be appropriate.
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
One 6th 5/1, one 2nd 11/4f and another 2nd 11/4 2nd fav. The market tricked me with Smile a Smile 5/2 when I placed my bet and drifted to 5/1. Rousayan was described as unreliable but obviously held its form.
I did a back/lay on Eponina which sadly failed. I don’t include my back/lay results here’ just the Trixie results.
Original Bank £2,538.61 less £20 = £2,518.61 C/Fwd
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
4.30 PONTE (6) SMILE A SMILE 5/2, 7.45 WIN (8) EQUITATION 9/4, 8.30 CATT (7) EPONINA 9/4 = £20 staked with a potential return of £351.40 Prices are a bit skinny atm but I hope that BOG ensures a better return. Ideally, I would like to see at least £500 for a £20 stake
Reasons for selections
SMILE A SMILE Up 6lbs but a good run is expected from the Johnston horse
EQUITATION CD Winner, up slightly in class but should go well
EPONINA I feel that this one will run better than Rux Ruxx
I have made a tiny £2 back to lay on (5) Casement in the 4.30 AT 26 with a lay bet at 15.00 in running for £20.90.
I will consider a back/lay bet on Eponina should the first two legs of the Trixie lose
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
One 2nd, one 7th and a non-runner
Original Bank £542.61 -£4 = £538.61 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 7.7% ROI. CASH INJECTION AS ADVISED = £2.000 therefore Balance at 1/7/19 = £2,538.61 ROI N/A
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Well Sir,
I have tested the method for a month and that gives me the confidence. Further, if there is any time to raise the stakes it has to be now whilst horses should be running according to form. I may have to reconsider the strategy when I get to September and beyond when we see the large field nurseries on the flat and the changeover to the jumps.
I hope this helps?
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT
Despite the sequence outlined below, I have enough confidence to inject an extra £2k into my Trixie project. This means a total of £20 Trixie per day with 4 legs at £5. I will continue with my Back to lay bets at the rate of £10 per stake. This may not necessarily be the 3rd leg of the Trixie if there are no winners on the first two legs as the difference in the numbers of click on the lower priced selections can be substantial. So, let’s now turn up the heat.
Possibly, on weekdays there may be no Trixie as you know I like to stake on the quality races where the form is more reliable (Sovereign in the Irish Derby )haha).
I’m giving it a go.
LLLLLDLLLLLLLLLLDLLLLLLLLDLLLLLDL is the sequence of losers and four doubles. The lowest balance remains at £457.19 which ironically equates to about 7.65% off £500.
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
2.35 Cart (1) Project Bluebook 3/1, 4.05 Uttox (8) The Clock is Ticking 10/3, 5.15 Uttox (4) Organdi 4/1 =£4 staked potential return £145.64
Reasons for selections:
Project Bluebook Up 4lbs but I think it will run well on this sharp course; has run well at Chester
The Clock is Ticking well supported in the market; Brave Eagle up 8lbs
Organdi again has good market support and most of the main experts expect a good run.
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
Even I was excited at the start of the 5.40 race at York having secured a double on the first two legs of my Trixie today. For anyone interested, after the first leg won Cash out on Sportsbook was offering £17.96 profit and after the second leg it was offering £69.94 versus a net profit of £224.75 hence I stayed in hoping for my first Trixie win. Not to be though and, although my horse was 11/4F it finished 5th. Never mind the net double paid £31.42 so I can’t complain.
Original Bank £500 +£11.19 + £31.42 = £542.61 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 8.5 % ROI. Not great returns for my first month but nonetheless my bank wouldn’t give me that would they?
LLLLLDLLLLLLLLLLDLLLLLLLLDLLLLLD is the sequence of losers and four doubles. The lowest balance remains at £457.19 which ironically equates to about 8.5% off £500.
Pity I didn’t get the Trixie in for £227 I would have loved to increase my Trixie stakes from a total of £4 to £6. Another day awaits I’m sure.
Meanwhile, I am hoping to increase my winning strike rate through better racing analysis.
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TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
1.50 NEWC (1) STAXTON 11/2, 5.15 NEWC, (3) MUBHIJ 10/3. 5.40 YORK (4) CLAIRE UNDERWOOD 3/1 = £4 STAKED POTENTIAL RETURN £184.16
Reasons for selections:
STAXTON, 4th last year and may win. Air Raid has lots to overcome but hats off to it if it does.
MUBHIJ CD winner running well
CLAIRE UNDERWOOD is preferred to My Boy Sepoy who has to prove it can win up in distance
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
Unseated rider 6/1, 7th 4/1 and 3rd 7/2f so nothing gained today. At least my back to lay on Gabrial The Tiger got matched (7.4 – 5.1) to clear £4 should it win. Although the horse finished 3rd the winner was trained by the same trainer R Fahey. This is the third time this week that a trainer’s second string has beaten my selection. Food for thought.
Original Bank £500 +£11.19 = £511.19 Balance C/Fwd. Equals 2.2 % ROI
Daily Singles, Doubles, Trebles and Trixies
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
TRIXIE SELECTIONS TODAY
3.0 Str (1) Young Wolf 11/4, 3.15 N Abb (3) Riviere Argentee 7/2, 5.35 NAbb ((13) Alanjou 7/2 = £20 stake with the potential return of £649.69
Young Wolf has potentially more potential than others at the increased distance
River Argentee is running very well; I don’t buy it that it needs cut in the ground to win.
Alanjou is up 10lbs but is in great form so I’ll stick with this one.
TRIXIE RESULTS UPDATE
At last at least a double for the month. One winner 9/4F, one 2nd 3/1J and a winner at 11/4. BOG meant that I received £80 less £20 = a profit of £60 on the day.
Losing out on £620 for the Trixie was a bit of a disappointment and I know that hindsight is no sight but I did wonder why Makzeem finished 4 lengths ahead of George William when the latter finished 2.25 lengths in front when they both last met. Makzeem was 5lbs better off for the 2.25 lengths beating AND it was noted that Makzeem was squeezed for room on that occasion. Although the media experts made noises about the prospects of Makzeem winning soon, all the big boys were recommending that George William would once again finish in front. Only RP Ratings plus one other RP tipster supported Makseem. For my part, I have learnt that I must look more closely into the form book when one horse has run against another fancied runner. The markets too were either influenced by the media hype or somehow accepted that George William would prevail. This is not sour grapes but just a warning not to just accept what the experts say without doing a bit of further research.
Original Bank £2,538.61 less £280 + £60= £2,318.61 C/Fwd ROI N/A