The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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5..40 Newm Quloob one point win at 8/1 with Bet365
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One Trixie today for £1.50 = £6 = Poss Return of £60.31
2.50 Nm Aesthete 6/4
4.00 Nm Al Rufaa 7/4
4.25 Nm Aristocratic Lady 7/4Other bets:
1.30 Hd So Beloved 50p ew at 18/1
4.00 Nm Bear Force One £1 win at 11/2
4.25 Hd So Sharp 50p ew at 16/1
5.10 Nm Data Protection £1 win at 11/2= £6 on multiples
= £4 on singles
= Total of £10
Hopefully back later with lay bets
I am very pleased to report that having had the use of a bet365 £100 worth of credits I have used them up barring £1 and my Bet365 Account balance remains in tact with the extra £100 now included in my account for future betting purposes ?
Just two out of three again on my Trixie. The double paid £14.44 less £6 outlay = £8.44 profit. The balance C/Fwd is now £668.16 (Bank £800)
My singles sufferred again today only a non runner mitigating my £4 stake. Hence a £3 loss on the day. The balance is now £294.22 (Bank £400)
It seems that playing other horses against my multiple favourites is making my singles balance worsen. I am going to be very careful about these bets in the future. I may include singles on other races and also I have noticed that when I'm looking for lay bets in the lower grade races I quite often find what appears to be good ew selections at a decent price. I will definitely include some of these.
Four good quality races at Salisbury, three at Thirsk and one at WIndsor tomorrow so will take a look at these
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10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
This may be the case in the winter months. In the summer months the strike rate is 33% and backing the AW favourites generates a profit.
One note of caution, 2019 showed a loss.
Many thanks M for a balanced view for us punters.
One question occurs to me with regards to all these stats. Would you place a bet based purely upon the stats?
Also, you mentioned earlier you would be re-visiting "horses returning to racing within 5 days" I don't think that you would blindly back horses despite the wonderful stats. However, it occurs to me that many punters would because they are looking to minimise the time they spend on researching their betting. The same goes for punters looking for top rated horses which I must confess I find a dubious way of selecting horses to bet on
Hence, what sort of advice would you suggest to punters for them to carry out in addition to pure stats/ratings before putting their hard earned cash on a horse?
Sorry, this is a tough question.
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5 hours ago, BillyHills said:
Yeah, we have had lots Trotter and many of these questions have been asked and answered before but we do have new members so its useful to have it.
?
Haha, it occurs to me that you could write up a compendium of FAQ's so that we can all assimilate it so as to avoid putting forward repetitive questions
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3 hours ago, BillyHills said:
The Equaliser, it's funny watching you ask a question or query something and all of the little helpers running around giving you advice and stats.
I wondered why you asked if you could start this thread?
It's a good read anyway
I started it because I thought that it may help people who have genuine questions about horse racing and betting and, of course any newbies seeking help. Sure, I throw in questions that may help me in my endeavour to either find winners and/or losers. I am pretty sure that the voluntary replies given by PL members with years of experience does help other punters beside myself.
Incidentally, I am still in the same camp as @Trotter in as much as I wouldn't place a bet on a selection just because of a statistic. i.e. I like to look at a race and consider the opposition before either backing or laying a horse. However, I will definitely now take notice of a relevant statistic such as a "horse having a recent run" so as not to "lay" it just because I think that the race has come too soon.
I have improved a bit recently on my winner finding and am pleased that my Trixies (not today though) in selecting shorter priced quality race selections is starting to pay off.
On the "lay" bets side I am trialling £2.11 lay bets on first or maybe second favourites with a max liability of £10 per transaction. I want to increase my staking to £21.10 in the near future but, as you may appreciate risking up to a £100 for a £20 return will take a lot of guts and being correct on a lot of occasions for me to make a profit .
I don't think it does any harm for punters who just want to back horses to win or each way to look at the relevant factors that may cause a horse not to win. After all it could save them some money! ?
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Two lay bets at Wolverhampton
5.50 Independence Day £2.11 @ 3.50 (UM 3.70) £2 v £5.28 liability. Will have to ping the gates to win this 5f event. Bad draw as well. 4 decent challengers
6.20 Choral Work. £2.11 @ 4.70 = £2 v £7.81 Market expect this one to sprout wings. Has 3 decent challengers
Both the above two lost and my bets were matched so a £4 profit on the day. I was a bit nervous about Choral Work but I told myself even if it did win I would still oppose another horse in similar circumstances in the future (I.e. the horse had achieved very little and none of the experts gave it a good write up). The balance c/fwd is + £12.96
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One £1 Trixie today = £4 v £34.85 (still using bet credits so a reduced return forecast)
2.00 Cart Fort De L'Ocean 2/1
3.30 San Enemy 6/5
4.35 San Gypsey Whisper 11/4Singles bets
1.10 San Bright Armor £2 win at 3.7 = £5.13 (the media band wagon has gone for Perroto but I don't see backing this one at 13/8 is of value)
4.05 San Margaret Dumont £1 win at 5/1 (revolver was showing at 4/5 last night, drifted an back to evens now)4.35 San Fan Tail £1 win at 4/1
4.35 San Arabic Charm £1 win at 11/212.50 Cart Now Children £1 win at 9/2
2.35 Cart Shantaluze 50p win at 10/1 (been off a long time)
3.10 Cart Achill Road Boy £1 win at 7/2
3.45 Cart The Steward £1 win at 9/2
3.45 Cart Glen Y Gors 50p win at 8/1
3.45 Cart Zig Zag 50p win at 14/1
Should be fun to watch this raceMultiples = £4
Singles = £9.50
Total stakes = £13.50
Hopefully back later with some lay bets
Just one winner in the Trixie so no return = £4 loss = Balance c/fwd £659.72 (£800 Bank)
Pity that Arabic Charm got beaten a neck at 7/1. At least Glen Y Gors won at 8/1 so a £5.50 loss on the day. The balance c/fwd on my singles is now £297.22 (Bank £400)Loads of class action tomorrow so I will not need to look at class 4 races.
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3.45 Cart Zig Zag one point win at 16/1 with WilliamHill
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7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Backing horses after a recent run is a "system" that seems to have stood the test of time. On the flat over the last few years the results for horses running less again less than 5 days ago is
378 winners
1,109 runners
84.41 points LSP (8% ROI).
It has delivered a profit in each of the last 5 years.
Hi M, Looks like laying these beasts with a 34% strike rate is not a good strategy. Many thanks for your help
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Many thanks @Trotter and @kroni for your very helpful and useful advice. In relation to "a very recent run" I think that it may be best to conclude that if the trainer runs the horse then it should be assumed that the horse will give its running. But as you say, if checking back on the previous race I find that it indeed had a very hard race then it could be a factor that the horse may well not be on top form today. One would hope that the trainer would not run it in these circumstances.
Looks as though I can only apply "a very recent run" as being a good "lay" factor in very limited circumstances.
I will continue to seek out as many factors as I can that may influence a short priced favourite failing to live up to market expectations.
Although tricky I love to choose from class 5, 6 and 7 races for horses to be the most unreliable in giving their running. Obviously horses dropping down in grade have to be treated with extra care before considering them for "lay" purposes.
Once again, many thanks
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When should I take notice that a horse is running too soon after a very recent race and may not have had time to get over its recent exhertions?
I quite often read the comment that a horse may not have got over its very recent race and I'm not sure when to take notice of it. As I understand it sprinters can quite easily have a number of runs in quick succession and it doers not make much difference. However, when one gets into distance races I thought that it did matter.
Anyway, what has prompted my question is that I layed Court Jurado in the 4.50 Stratford this afternoon mainly on the basis that it may not handle the sharp track and had made mistakes at Southwell over two miles on Tuesday. I additionally thought that it may not have got over its recent exertions and may faulter because of this too. Well, it didn't. It not only handled the track OK but I was lucky that Getawaytonewbay ran a blinder and won by 3 and 3/4 lengths at 17/2.
Does anyone know if there are any proven statistics that show horses under specific race conditions will not run well after a very recent run?
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One lay bet for the time being
4.50 Stra Court Jurado £2.11 @ 2.80 I/R UM 2.96 atm = Liab £3.80 v £2.00 Made mistakes at Southwell when looked like winning on Tuesday. Won't get away with them on this sharp track
Well, my reason for the "lay" bet was a bit mis-placed, however another horse beat mine and therefore a profit of £2 was produced.
The C/Fwd balance on my "lay" bets is now + £8.96
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2 hours ago, BoobyBets said:
Hello, I posted a new message saying hello in the Announcement section.
First tip I'm trying today is a massive price of 33-1... in a selling handicap ?
Kibaar in the 1:45 at Ripon is a monkey in the stalls and tends to rear up when leaving. Not showed much for some time and might be out with the washing today again, BUT... definitely has ability on a going day, has a ridiculously low mark and wouldn't be surprised at all if he was to bounce back to life on the day the trainer's grandad has the usual memorial race, quite rightly named after him.
Good luck whatever you do today. ? ?
A very warm welcome to Punters Lounge, I hope that you will find us amenable and that you will be successful
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One Trixie today for £1.50 = £6 poss return of £60.36
3.20 Rip Fishable 6/4
5.20 Str See The Sea 2/1
5.50 Str Demon D'Aunou 11/4 (Distance winner and hopefully gets a clear round today)Other bets
1.15 Rip Bossipop 50p win at 9/1
1.15 Rip Wentworth Falls 50p win at 6/1
1.15 Rip Fairy Stories 50p ew at 25/1 (I'm a sucker for the big prices)2.50 Rip Billy No Mates £1 win at 9/2
2.50 Rip Clearance £1 win at 6/1 (up 8lbs but the so called experts think it can overcome the hike!)4.40 Bath Just The Man £1 win at 6/1 (Overwrite should win this)
5.20 Stra Operatic Expert £1 win at 6/1 (let's see if the doc can work his magic)
5.50 Stra Demon D'Aunou £1 win at 11/4
5.50 Stra Tel'art £1 win at 4/17.20 Stra Bbold £1 win at 7/2 (looks a good price)
Total £6 Multiples
Total £9 on singles
= £15 Total outlay
Back later with lay bets
I had a double in on the Trixie; kicking myself for not puting Monty's Reward in instead of Demon DAunou but that's life. the double paid £11.44 (interesting how the figures are calculated using bet credits); less £6 outlay = a profit of £5.44. The balance C/fwd is now £663.72 (£800 Bank)
I had two singles winners one at 13/2 and one at 4/1. £6.50 net and £5 on the 4/1 shot = £11.50 less £9 = £2.50 profit. The balance C/Fwd is £302.72
Some class 3 and class 4 action tomorrow so there is some hope of horses runnig to market expectations
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1.15 Rip Bossipop one point win at 10/1 with Bet365
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1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said:
Very many thanks for your reply, I will investigate the writer's books and his associates despite them maybe being failed punters as you suggest.
I can't understand why you are so against "lay" betting. It seems to me that with your knowledge of how favourites can or cannot be favoured by specific race conditions you could be making a small fortune. As seen when you kindly looked at the race I mentioned there seemed to be no significant reason why OP should sprout wings and win the race.
Looks as though I now need to research how the sporting world calculates whether an opening handicap mark for a horse is generous or not. Despite how that is determined I still can't see how a horse that has been running badly is supposed to be transformed into a selection becoming favourite.
Ps I like crap races (class 5.6 & 7) for my lay bets. I believe that they say up North, where there's muck there's brass
Thanks again
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5 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
Its all about using the correct statistics which most don't
If the race is a 3yo+ 0-60hc you use all available stats from that type of race as all horses then should have a similar makeup otherwise they shouldn't be in that type of race,
I personally then try to break my selections down to a coinflip 50/50 chance so say the past stats, eg... say 1st & 2nd favs win 50% between them against the field Ive already reduced the field to 2 by doing nothing with the knowledge backing all selections these stats bring up Im at least going to win 50% of the time, if I can dutch the 2 for over evens the pair then its a no brainer back the 2, If not price match those 2 against each other to see if there's a bet or not.
Luckily for me I have a machine learning program linked to Access that sorts out the best bets for the day then all thats needed is the books prices to see if any are worth backing.
In the database I have 149K flat races
Which is over 1.5 million horses raced against each other
I kind of agree with Trotter in as much as I don't like applying statistical data to a specific event such as the 6.40 at Kempton. However, what you say seems to make good sense about using statistics intelligently. Many people know that tossing a fair coin thousands of times will lead to results tending towards 50% heads and tails. What they don't seem to appreciate is that the numerical difference between either heads or tails grows larger as further spins are added . If you have written anything on using horse racing statistics intelligently I will be please to receive a copy. Then maybe I could go on the Adrian Massey website and make some good use of it.
I have a question for you? I was looking for a decent "lay" bet earlier and came across the 6.35 at Lingfield. There was a horse in it called O'Reilly's Pass. For quite a large part of the afternoon it was quoted as around 9/4 to 5/2 favourite. The only information that I could glean was something like "hasn't done much up to now but should improve now handicapping". There were other horses in the race that had showed some good form. Having looked at later races I decided that it would be worth laying it as it seemed to be my best option. Anyway, my question is how does anyone work out that if sending a horse handicapping should actually show such dramatic improvement so as to make it favourite over the other horses?
Hope you can help?
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2.50 NAb Percy Street one point win at 12/1 with Bet365
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Once more into the breach....
One Trixie today and some singles:
2.50 NAb Double Clever 7/4
3.20 NAb Pagero 15/8
6.50 NAb Soldier Of Love 10/11One £1.50 Trixie = £6 v £26.59 (using bet credits)
Singles:
1.45 NAb Hiconic £1 win 4/7
1.45 NAb Balko saint £1 win at 6/12.50 NAb Parody £1 win at 10/3
2.50 NAb Bootlegger 50p win at 13/2
2.50 NAb Percy Street 50p win at 14/13.20 NAb Hallings Comet £1 win at 6/1
3.20 NAb Magical Thomas £1 win at 15/23.50 NAb For Good Measure £1 win at 7/2
3.50 NAb Bally Longford 50p win at 13/2
3.50 NAb Marble Moon 50p win 15/22.40Ayr Zim Baby £1 win at 7/2
2.40 Ayr Affendum 50p win at 9/1
2.40 Ayr Dick Datchery 50p win at 6/1Total Multiples = £6
Total Singles = £10
Total stakes = £16
Back later with Lay Bets
After a few days of my favourites letting me down in my multiples it was refreshing to see them all win today. The return on my trixie was much better than expected. It returned £50.54 less £6 outlay = £44.54 profit. My Balance C/Fwd is now £658.28 (£800 Bank)
This meant of course that my win bets suffered. Actually Hallings Comet only got beat by a short head (thankfully). I had a 73p return on Hiconic (trying to mitigate Baltic Saint's £1. Anyway loss on the day = £9.27. Balance C/fwd is now £300.22 (£400 Bank)
1 class 2, three class 3's and about 4 class 4 races tomorrow so quality racing is a bit thin on the ground.
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1 hour ago, Trotter said:
I'm not really a fan of those kind of stats
My view is always that those 5 years worth of favourites that the stats are based on are not running in the 6.40 at Kempton tonight !
But overall I think that about roughly a third of favourites ? ....... which means two-thirds don't
The trick is to find the favourites that won't win ....... the shorter the odds the better. That's where your skill comes in ...... finding those horses that are favourites but maybe shouldn't be because there's something in their form or run style or in todays conditions which makes you think they won't win
Have you ever worked through Racecourse Specialist by Jon Burgess (of False Favourites fame); I have an old copy which runs to 156 pages long. Not sure whether to plough through it or not?
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8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Unfortunately BOYLESPORTS were not so generous.
You seem to switch approaches quite a lot. Do you paper trade these before putting money on?
No M. After doing a lot of work on finding my selections I have to invest a bit of cash on them. As I pointed out I do not put loads of money on. As you will see from my cumulative results which go back months and months I am in no danger of losing my betting banks. When I say new approach, what I mean is that whereas I would put singles stakes on the same horses that I included in my multiples, I will now choose other horses in the same race that are reckoned to have a good chance of beating my selection so as to cover myself for being let down by the so-called good thing(s) that seem to fail with boring consistency. It comes as a somewhat relief to me when I am let down by my favourites and I hopefully choose a viable alternative.
Sorry that Boylesports didn't void your bet as well on Tranchee; I would suggest to you to try Bet365 as I did and get £100 of free bets on the ATR website but I guess that you've been there, done that and got the Teeshirt
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8.30 Sou Love The Well one point win at 13/2 with Bet365
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5 hours ago, Benchley said:
I have tried many times laying favourites but always hit a winning streak which wiped out weeks of profit.
I am currently having a go at this. I know its tricky but I feel if one tries to find a good criterion for laying horse it also assists in deciding whether or not to back other horses (including favourites)
I found an old system about laying the second favourite the other day. I think that if I were to use it I would prefer to check out the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourite. Anyway, as I'm not yet desperate I will continue in my quest of mainly laying the favourite and sometimes the second favourite should the price not be too big and it seems a better lay bet than the first favourite.
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4 hours ago, Benchley said:
This is a points system that I have been using with mixed success, seems to work better in class 3 and better races.
My Points System.
Last run, win = 30. 2nd = 21. 3rd = 18, 4th = 9
2nd last run, win = 20. 2nd = 14. 3rd = 12, 4th = 6
3rd last run, win = 10. 2nd = 7. 3rd = 6, 4th = 3
18 points for win over Course & Distance
18 points for win at Course but Distance elsewhere
6 points for C
12 points for D
12 points if forecast price less than 3/1
9 points if forecast price less than 6/1
6 points if forecast price less than 10/1
12 points if running within 15 days
9 points if running within 30 days
6 points if running within 50 days
Any thoughts or ideas will be gratefully received.I think that you would do well to read the info on the first 3 pages here regarding the Fineform system. Good advice from @Trotter and @BillyHills regarding courses.
I like the bit about points for forecast price (though I think I would prefer to use actual prices on offer from the Oddschecker website. I feel that accounting for what is happening in the betting market is very important and shows one has a grip on reality
Points for race fitness also appeals to me.
1st, 2nd and 3rd on the last run doesn't appeal to me unless you are taking into account whether the horse has achieved the figures in the same class.
The course and distance factor has seen much debate earlier. Most courses where sprints are run (5 - 7 furlongs ) seem to be straight runs, though the gradients can of course be different. I tend to prefer horses that have won over a specific distance only from the point of view that they have proved they can do it. I hate all the conjecture about bound to improve over the extra yardage, crying out for an extra furlong etc. Whilst this may be true I would not put my money on a journalist's recomendation and of course we can't ask the horse.
I hope that some of this information may be useful
GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Haha, I much prefer your previous reply that people should use statistics sensibly. E.g It may correct to say that 33% of favourites win on the AW over the summer months and in most years that they show a profit. However, placing a bet blindly on the favourite will not necessarily yield a long term summer profit. And, suppose someone thinks that getting 4/1 plus about a favourite is bound to make them a profit in the long run because the dumb bookies are offering 20% odds about a 33% chance is still wrong. This is because mixed up in the 33% winners figures are odds on shots and even money all the way through to 2/1 (33%) shots. So one has to remove all those winners and look at the stats again to find a value bet.
I think if I were to pin my hope on such stats I would look at the favourite, But not look at any of the opposition horses. Then, I would consider all aspect of this favourite under today's conditions e.g recent form, reliability, whether race fit, if the going is OK, the Mark OK, the Distance OK, the Course OK, the Class OK, the Surface OK, Under the right racing code and whether the trainer/Jockey is in good form as well. I would apply the same approach to using ratings methods
However, this is not my approach to choosing betting selections. I prefer to focus on either horses at the front end of the racing market and use expert opinion both for the well fancied horses and also for horse selections around 10/1 plus in the betting.
I don't like the idea of my fellow punters placing bets on stats and/or top ratings, in this regard, I agree that they should work at tuning their harps