The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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One Trixie today
2.30 Asc Wonderful Tonight (WB) £1 win at 5/1
3.28 Str Pogo I Am (BC5) £2 win at 11/4
4.03 Str Blue N Yellow £1 win at 4/1
One £1 Trixie = £4 v poss return of £183.75Other bets:
1.20 Asc Search For A Song £1 win at 6/1
1.55 Asc Oxted £1.20 win at 15/2
1.55 Asc Dream Of Dreams 70p win at 3/12.30 Asc Mehdaayih £1 win at 7/1
3.40 Asc Mishriff £1 win at 5/1
4.15 Asc Alternative Fact 55p win at 10/1
4.15 Asc Blue Mist 45p win at 25/11.13 Stra Felton Bellevue 45p win at 20/1
2.15 Str Test Valley 30p win at 33/1
4.40 Str Baratineu £1.20 win at 9/2
4.40 Str Catlow 30p win at 9/2 (fancied it at 10's but hacked into too much for my liking so just an ins bet)= £4 Multiples
= £9.15 singles
= Total £13.15
Should be fun to watch. Good luck to everyone today. Despite backing against Stradivarious I would love to see it win impressively today ?
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Just one winner today and that was down to William Buick. I noticed that the jockeys with the greatest strike rates seemed to have money pouring on their horses; not that they won but I guess that they were expected to run very well if not win.
Anyway, multiples - £4 therefore the balance c.fwd is now £630.69 (£800 Bank)
Singles was - £9.15 outlay and £6 return so a loss of £3.15. My balance is now £172.17 (Bank £400)
Three jumps meetings tomorrow in the UK so let's see how our woulb be racing guru's handle that?
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11 hours ago, Simmoform said:
Ascot finish their 2020 flat season with the 10th Champions Day which will be run on testing soft ground with the likes of Stradivarius, Magical and Palace Pier looking to end their term with victories.
Hollie Doyle has had a sensational season breaking her own yearly winner total earlier in the week with 117 winners so far. She has a big chance of securing her first Group 1 success with DAME MALLIOT (2.30 Ascot). Hollie won on her at Newmarket in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales Stakes back in July and was a highly credible 3rd in the Prix Vermeille on Arc trials day. Behind her that day were rivals Wonderful Tonight, Laburnam and Even So and she can confirm the form. It will be an emotional win not only for Hollie but as trainer Ed Vaughan is leaving the training ranks for financial reasons and ironically the first prize here of just short of £200k would be his biggest win.
Yorkshire trainer David O’Meara has an excellent record in the Balmoral handicap (4.15) having won it twice and had two placed in the eight runners he’s saddled in the prestigious handicap’s 6 year history so his two runners are of significance this year. The one I’m most interested in is ORBAAN who will be ridden by stable jockey Daniel Tudhope and is only 3lb higher than his York win in July. An ex Andre Fabre inmate he’ll have no problem with the soft ground and looks the best value in a race full of dangers headed by the pair of improving 3 year olds Raaeq and Tempus who head the market. Last year’s winner O’Meara’s Escobar was drawn 20 (although they did race on the inside track then) so I’m hopeful that Orbaan’s stall number 20 will be ideal.
The National Hunt season is becoming more interesting by the day and the best bet over the sticks is Nigel Twiston Davies’ TEMPLEHILLS (2.53 Stratford) who looks thrown in off of only 120 (113 if taking the more than capable Jack Savage’s claim into account). He was a smart chaser for Twiston Davies two seasons back winning at Warwick off of 137 and at one stage being as highly rated as 144. Having lost his form he was acquired by Jonjo O’Neil and showed little for him in four runs the following season before re-joining his former trainer off of a very winnable mark. He’s won after a break and should be ready to fire today. This doesn’t look the strongest of handicap chases with Frankly Du Berlais winning over hurdles last time and the biggest threat possibly coming from Keiran Burke’s Everlanes who was progressive last season and his trainer has been amongst the winners recently
Welcome to Punters lounge, we seem to be getting lots of new talent recently
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21 hours ago, Tumbleweed King said:
2-30 Ascot WONDERFUL TONIGHT
This three-year-old daughter of Le Havre is extremely lightly raced. She has talent in abundance though and a fortnight ago, she made just about all to win the Qatar Prix De Royallieu at Paris Longchamp in testing conditions. She looks all set to encounter similar ground here this afternoon and with trainer David Menusier in excellent form she commands utmost respect. Will Buick takes over in the saddle and given that she has won over longer trips, he will likely make the most of her proven stamina. Wonderful Tonight is set to receive seven pounds from her male counterparts including Antonio De Vega and and Dame Mallot. Every single pound will count on ground this soft and if finding for pressure, she may well be able to grind them into submission. Many of her own sex who line up here are woefully out of form. She still has further improvement to come and she has to be high on any shortlist.
3-40 Ascot ADDEYBB
A globetrotting winning machine is the best way to describe the William Haggas trained six-year-old. This ten furlong trip certainly brings out the best in him and with three wins from four starts under his belt this year, he is remarkably consistent. Two of those victories came out in Australia in the spring where he picked up wins in the Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill before also scoring at Randwick in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He returned to the UK in time for Royal Ascot and following his exertions abroad, he found only one too strong in Lord North. Given that he probably needed to reacclimatise, that effort had to be marked up. That proved to be the case when on his subsequent start he lined up for the Doonside Cup at Ayr. Despite coming under strong pressure a couple of furlongs out, he fought back bravely and got the better of Lord Glitters by just under a length. The form of that race has already been well advertised at the fourth placed Euchen Glen has come out to win subsequently. Tom Marquand has built up an excellent relationship with this son of Pivotal and they have to rate as massive dangers to all. He has been given a two month break to prepare for this and his trainer can reap the rewards.
4-15 Ascot KEATS
Last seen out just over a fortnight ago, Keats was given a positive ride by Seamie Heffernan in a listed race at Cork. He came under a drive a couple of furlongs from home but the son of Galileo found plenty for pressure. He readily swept to the front to beat Free Solo by a little over a length. He looks to be another that is improving just at the right time and may be able to take full advantage of many rivals who have just not shown their true form this season. With the ground likely to be just as he likes it and now with Ryan Moore on board, the pair can end the season on a high for all at Ballydoyle.
Welcome to punters lounge, may I wish you much success with your tipping
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I have placed a few bets.
12.40 Hd Cuban Breeze (RK) £2.00 @ 4.10 = £6.08 (Looks like a cert on paper but I've been let down before)
2.35 Red Real Smooth (RD5) £2 win at 11/2
3.05 Red Chaplin Bay (JH) 45p win at 25/1
3.05 Red B Fifty Two (JE) 45p win at 28/14.05 Red Rainbow Mirage (CF) 45p win at 20/1
5.05 Red Bawaader (A Mc) 70p win at 10/1
I will be back later to look at William Buick's rides at Newcastle (too many hot jockeys there so I'll stick with him as his overall strike rate is the best)
Total stakes = £6.05
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A blank day on the singles, so a loss of £6.05 The balance c/fwd is now £175.32 (Bank £400)
William Buick only had one winner at Newcastle so a little uninspiring.
Ascot later with Stradivarious out for compensation; not sure I want to oppose it.
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14 hours ago, John W said:
Hey guys new here nice to meet you all and also nice to be involved.
Haydock 1.45 COMMANCHE FALLS 9/2 betfair, career best last time and a repeat of that here on ground he handles will see him competitive.
Uttoxeter 2.23 AS I SEE IT(ew) 12/1 bet365, nice to see this one back over hurdles this season after uninspiring tries over fences. This race could see a bounce back to form.
Welcome to Punters Lounge, I hope that you enjoy your stay with us. Good luck with your tips.
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One Trixie today:
4.30 Win Captain Tommy (BF) £3 win at 9/4
4.50 Lin Veleta (AK) £2 win at 9/2 Trixie = 5/1
6.30 Chelm Sideral (OM) £2 win at 4.6= £7.06, 5/2 Trixie
£1 win Trixie = £4 = Poss return of £120.12Other bets:
3.55 Win Chantecler (NdB) £1.20 win at 7/1 = £9.60
8.00 Chelm Tie A Yellow Ribbon (RD5) £1.38 win at 14.5 = £18.26
8.30 Chelm Zhikovsky (RD5) £1.20 win at 13/2 = £9.00
Total multiples = £4.00
Total singles = £10.78
Total stakes £14.78
Happy punting everyone
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Had to wait until the 8.00 chelm for a winner. Returned £17.58 + £1.20 N/R = £18.78, therefore £8 profit on singles. Bal c/fwd = £181.37 (Bank £400)
A loss of £4 on the multiples means a c/fwd balance of £634.69
Five UK meetings tomorrow so a lot to look at
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No selections today; got too tied up with other things. Good luck to punters at Kempton this evening
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7.00 Km Bottom Bay (RD) one point win at 20/1with Betfair
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10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Is Holly Doyle one of your top jocks ? I find her quite weak in the finish of a race. In fact I had 5 fancied horses today, all ridden by female jockeys and they all lost. Time for me to look at a few statistics I think. Logic suggests that they will be weaker in a finish than their male counterparts but perhaps it's just me being sexist !
Well, MC, she is 4th in the Jockey title championship with 80 wins and a 15% strike rate. I believe that she is about £41 down on level stakes profit. She let me down badly with the favourite Beau Geste yesterday and came storming through too late on Wind In My Sail later on in the day. I am using these top jocks/apprentices from the point of view that they will get the best rides from trainers/requests from owners. Just trying to narrow down the awful number of runners that we see each day in trying to find winners.
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6.15 Nc Perfect Sign one point win at 10/1 with Bet365
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Mainly focussed on Wolverhampton today where there is less competition for my top jocks/apprentices
One tiny Trixie for 50p = £2 = poss return of £51.24 (miserly)
6.00 Wolv Kenstone (£1.20 at 4/1) 7/2 Trixie
6.30 wolv Beau Geste 6/4 Yukkk
8.30 Wolv Right Action (£1.20 at 5/1) 4/1 TrixieOther bets:
12.15 Her Munstead Moonshine (CL) 20p win at 50/1 = £10.20 Shouldn't pose a threat but I've backed CL's other runner in the 1.15 and I hate to miss out on a winner
1.15 Her Yeats Mardy (CL) 70p win at 16/1= £11.90
6.00 Wolv Air Of York (LM) 70p win at 12/1
6.30 Wolv Khazaf (LM) 70p win at 16/1
7.00 Wolv Kuwait Shield 70p win at 10/1 (Tapeta debit though?)
7.30 Wolv Wind In My Sail (HD) 45p at 20/1
8.00 Wolv Inaam (HD) £1.20 at 17/2 (I just keep spending money on Hollie)
8.30 Wolv May Song (MG) 70p win at 8/1
£2 on multiples
£7.75 stakes on singles
Total stakes £9.75
May look at other venues later where the competition among my top in form jockeys/apprentices is a lot hotter
Good luck to all
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No Trixie again today, just single bets
12.45 Yar Duke of Candicote £1.20 win at 13/2
1.15 Yar Volcano Bay £1.20 win at 5/1
1.15 Yar Lily Beach 30p win at 50/12.53 Yar Airflow £1.20 win at 15/2
2.53 Yar Maker Of Light £1.20 win at 5/13.23 Yar Redemptive £1.20 win at 5/1
3.53 Yar Gonnadancealot £1.20 win at 6/1
3.53 Yar Sansebastion 30p win at 33/14.25 Yar Rue De La Gaite £1.20 win at 11/2
4.25 Yar Eevilynn 70p win at 16/1Quite challenging to discern between my top in form Jocks and apprentices, but very hopeful to be on the right track now
I also like my bets to be "On the ball AND off the wall" with some outsiders
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Still finding my feet with my new approach. Another blank day I'm afraid. Lost £10.70 so the new singles balance is now £181.12 (Bank £400)
Let's face it; I can only improve from here ?
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1.15 Yar Lily Beach One point win at 50/1 with Bet365
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No Trixie today; singles only
1.15 Gd Plattitude £1.20 win at 13/2
1.15 Gd Darksideof tarnside 70p win at 14/12.25 Gd Wholelotoffun £1.20 win at 8/1
2.55 Gd Afraid Of Nothing £1.20 win at 15/2
3.25 Gd Love Powerful 70p win at 16/1
3.25 Gd Pettochside 70p win at 16/14.25 Gd Its Good To Laugh £1.20 win at 13/2
4.25 Gd Kings Caper £1.20 win at 13/25.00 Gd George Of Hearts £1.20 win at 15/2
5.00 Gd Carp Kid £1 win at 9/1Total stakes = £10.30
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Oddly enough this has to be the best £10.30 that I have ever wasted on horse racing. I started out by looking for horses that had proven form on heavy going and ignored my top drawer jockeys. I completely missed the winners of Oisin Murphy and the one winner for James Doyle and Tom Marquand. Silly me. No worries, from now on I will be looking for my top in form jockeys and apprentices on the flat, all weather and over the jumps despite racing conditions or anything else. I even missed a punt on Bryony Frost over the jumps at 14/1. I will be placing standard bets on what I consider to be the best value bet in the primary win market (first to 3rd/4th favourites) along with a possible outsider bet with an in form top/jockey or apprentice. This has to be the way ahead in the future
Anyway, singles lost £10.30 which means my balance is now £191.82 (Bank £400)
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3.25 Gd Pettochside one point win at 16/1 with Bet365 (Hollie Doyle rides)
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3 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
Don’t like it mate . Made a really good start to the jumps, so will be sticking with that until April .
No probs, look out for some of my selections based upon jockey bookings. I haven't cracked this approach just yet but believe me these trainers get up to all sorts of tricks which then get translated into crap reviews in the sporting press then surprise surprise these so called no hopers then seem to win. As always with ANY ONE'S opinion, a selection by another person should only ever be regarded as worth a second look.
Good luck with your jump selections, I will keep an eye out for them over the coming months. ?
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3.10 York Wise Counsel one point win at 18/1 with Bet365
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4 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
Had a crap flat season , although it improved towards the end. Concentrating on the jumps for the remainder of the year and into next. It’s worked out well today as I’ve managed to keep my bets at a suitable level regarding number of selections.
Don't forget the All weather. lots of opportunities imo
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One small Trixie today:
12.25 Hex Glorious Lady 30p win at 4/1 (9/2 for Trixie)
3.03 Hex Lough Kent £1.20 at 9/1
3.40 Hex Get On John £1.20 at 6/150p win Trixie = £2 = poss return of £274.25
Other bets
12.25 Hex Blue Forty Two 70p win at 12/1
12.55 Hex Train Hill £1win at 7/1
12.55 Hex Flint Hill £1 win at 9/11.25 Hex Always Tipsy 45p win at 18/1
1.55 Hex Lough Derg Jewel 70p win at 12/1
1.55 Hex Teme Spirit 30p win at 50/14.11 Hex Platinumcard £1.20 at 6/1
3.57 Chep Doubly Clever 45p win at 20/1
3.57 Chep Sir Psyco 30p win at 6/15.07 Chep Auby Me Yang 70p win at 10/1
5.07 Chep Mr Peanut 30p win at 33/1
5.07 Chep Toad Of Toad Hall 30p win at 50/1Multiples = £2.00
Singles = £10.10
Total bets = £12.10
Poss back later after enjoying Newmarket & York. I don't know if I will be able to spot a coup or not. Very, very difficult today
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The only good thing, if there is one, about having a blank day is that it is very easy to write up results. Should have had a stab at Newmarket and York. Missed Ben Curtis on the Flying Ginger at 25/1 in the 1.30 at York and Oisin Murphy on Wobwobwob at 11/2 in the 1.10 at Newmarket. Someone once said that hindsight is no sight however, if we can learn from mistakes then hindsight can be useful
Lost £2 on multiples so the balance c/fwd is now £640.69 (Bank £800)
Lost £10.10 on singles so the balance c/fwd is now £202.12 (Bank £400)
Only two UK meetings tomorrow, one flat, one jumps so maybe I can find something to have a punt on?
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Just a quick note. Since I now follow top in form jockeys and apprentices on the flat and top in form jockeys and conditionals over the jumps I feel that there are too many at Newmarket and York today so as to spot a coup. It all looks like a bookie benefit day to me. I will be focussing on some outsiders at Hexham, Chepstow and Chelmsford. Sorry to be boring but I feel that if anyone fancies the horses at the big meetings then keeps stakes at a minimum. ?
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4.20 York Celtic Empress one point win at 10/1 with Bet365
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6.30 Chelm Twist And Turn one point win at 40/1 with Bet365 (come on Hayley don't go home empty handed)
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I expressed my shock and sadness in another area of the forum yesterday about Graham's sudden death. Despite all the burden of his job he always found time to consider my ideas and get back to me with his own opinion(s). He will be sadly missed by me and all his followers.
My heart felt sympathy and condolences go out to Graham's family and close friends
i don't know if details will be given about where to send donations or flowers for him? There was something on twitter but that seemed to relate to a date in 2019. I'm not a techie person so unsure about that?
Anyway, all very very sad; I don't feel like betting or posting any selections up on PL at the moment
Racing Chat - Saturday 17th October
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Well good luck to all of them; it will be nice if we get some highlighted winners too ?