The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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10 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:
Im not asking nor do I want anyone to follow me in any way shape or form (if you need to follow someone , I suggest join a marching band its a lot less stressful than punting)
I find as in most things life people who constantly go on about sharing usually have very little to offer in return and just want to take or are too bone idle to put in the time and effort do it themselves, either way not my problem
You'd have made a profit @ level stakes over the last 20yr , How much Ive made has nothing to do with my wife never mind some random poster on a message board.
As I am not trying to sell anything or prove anything to anyone whatsoever then I find the question particularly bad etiquette and usually the sort of thing akin to the dickswingers who've had a winner and feel the need to tell every-man and his dog. If you want that sort of crap go to BF forum full of themThat's the problem of the people who sign up to these clowns not mine , Im not a Dear Deardrie for the idiots who lose money to these shysters its there money to do with as they wish.
Well I am very pleased that you have a profitable method. I wish you another 20 years plus success. You give the stats user encouragement and very many thanks for sharing the information that you have.
I guess I do feel for the poor Dear Deardrie idiots that you mention. It is my quest to help them when I can.
Very best wishes for the future
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No time for published bets today. Good luck to all with their betting
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3.05 Thirsk Burtonwood one point win at 20/1 Betfair
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55 minutes ago, BillyHills said:
No we could just have the Punters Bible according to The Equaliser published.
Haha, it was a bit tongue in cheek of you to suggest that all too many questions have been asked and answered over the years. Times change and new punters come on board all the time in the hope of making their fortune in horse racing. If we can shed some light on the fallacies in racing along the way and try and help punters to either not waste their money or possibly make a small profit then this can't be bad can it?
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2 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
If you keep dissing stats and say there's no point then why keep asking.......... ?
Q1
As I stated before (so tedious having to repeat oneself) I have a ML program linked to my Access DB which does it all for me in minutes.
Q 2
Its because MY market leader from MY stats MAY NOT be the newspaper / racing post / tipster market leader which are widely followed and usually over-bet by the sheep, and therein lies the opportunity for profit
Just to reassure you I am not putting you and your statistics down.
Let's now say that you VT is the benchmark of stats that we all should follow. Hence the question on that point is that if you shared your method with other punters and they followed it would they have made a level stakes profit over the last 5 years. If so how much?
I am not being sarcastic. I really appreciate that you are applying a statistical solution to a real life betting problem. The reason that I ask is so as to give other punters encouragement and hope that if they go along your path they can be successful.
Now contrast this with the all too many private services out there that are fleecing punters on the basis that there wonderful rating services are banging in winners of 20/1 plus. As far as I can tell these services are trying to dupe punters into believing that a 10/1 shot is tantamount to uncovering a horse with a 50% chance of winning. I can't help feeling that in reality their 10/1 shots do not perform any better than anyone else's 10/1 shots. They don't give a breakdown of all there proposed 10/1 shots combined do they?
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3 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:
Do 2nd , 3rd , 4th favs etc not have stats ?
I stated stats should be used correctly , which would incorporate all available to create the best overall stat for top rated/fav whatever you wish to call it.Yes, I get that but what is the point of using stats or top rated selections if one is still having to plough through all the other horses in the race before coming to decision as whether to take notice of them. A waste of time and expense. If one is going to do that then much better just to focus on the leading market contenders and work from there
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15 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
Haha, I much prefer your previous reply that people should use statistics sensibly. E.g It may correct to say that 33% of favourites win on the AW over the summer months and in most years that they show a profit. However, placing a bet blindly on the favourite will not necessarily yield a long term summer profit. And, suppose someone thinks that getting 4/1 plus about a favourite is bound to make them a profit in the long run because the dumb bookies are offering 20% odds about a 33% chance is still wrong. This is because mixed up in the 33% winners figures are odds on shots and even money all the way through to 2/1 (33%) shots. So one has to remove all those winners and look at the stats again to find a value bet.
I think if I were to pin my hope on such stats I would look at the favourite, But not look at any of the opposition horses. Then, I would consider all aspect of this favourite under today's conditions e.g recent form, reliability, whether race fit, if the going is OK, the Mark OK, the Distance OK, the Course OK, the Class OK, the Surface OK, Under the right racing code and whether the trainer/Jockey is in good form as well. I would apply the same approach to using ratings methods
However, this is not my approach to choosing betting selections. I prefer to focus on either horses at the front end of the racing market and use expert opinion both for the well fancied horses and also for horse selections around 10/1 plus in the betting.
I don't like the idea of my fellow punters placing bets on purely on just stats and/or top ratings, in this regard, I agree that they should work at tuning their harps
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16 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:
A harp player spend 90% of the time tuning their harp
and only 10% of the time making musicTherein lies your answer,put the work in reap the rewards
Haha, I much prefer your previous reply that people should use statistics sensibly. E.g It may correct to say that 33% of favourites win on the AW over the summer months and in most years that they show a profit. However, placing a bet blindly on the favourite will not necessarily yield a long term summer profit. And, suppose someone thinks that getting 4/1 plus about a favourite is bound to make them a profit in the long run because the dumb bookies are offering 20% odds about a 33% chance is still wrong. This is because mixed up in the 33% winners figures are odds on shots and even money all the way through to 2/1 (33%) shots. So one has to remove all those winners and look at the stats again to find a value bet.
I think if I were to pin my hope on such stats I would look at the favourite, But not look at any of the opposition horses. Then, I would consider all aspect of this favourite under today's conditions e.g recent form, reliability, whether race fit, if the going is OK, the Mark OK, the Distance OK, the Course OK, the Class OK, the Surface OK, Under the right racing code and whether the trainer/Jockey is in good form as well. I would apply the same approach to using ratings methods
However, this is not my approach to choosing betting selections. I prefer to focus on either horses at the front end of the racing market and use expert opinion both for the well fancied horses and also for horse selections around 10/1 plus in the betting.
I don't like the idea of my fellow punters placing bets on stats and/or top ratings, in this regard, I agree that they should work at tuning their harps
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5..40 Newm Quloob one point win at 8/1 with Bet365
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One Trixie today for £1.50 = £6 = Poss Return of £60.31
2.50 Nm Aesthete 6/4
4.00 Nm Al Rufaa 7/4
4.25 Nm Aristocratic Lady 7/4Other bets:
1.30 Hd So Beloved 50p ew at 18/1
4.00 Nm Bear Force One £1 win at 11/2
4.25 Hd So Sharp 50p ew at 16/1
5.10 Nm Data Protection £1 win at 11/2= £6 on multiples
= £4 on singles
= Total of £10
Hopefully back later with lay bets
I am very pleased to report that having had the use of a bet365 £100 worth of credits I have used them up barring £1 and my Bet365 Account balance remains in tact with the extra £100 now included in my account for future betting purposes ?
Just two out of three again on my Trixie. The double paid £14.44 less £6 outlay = £8.44 profit. The balance C/Fwd is now £668.16 (Bank £800)
My singles sufferred again today only a non runner mitigating my £4 stake. Hence a £3 loss on the day. The balance is now £294.22 (Bank £400)
It seems that playing other horses against my multiple favourites is making my singles balance worsen. I am going to be very careful about these bets in the future. I may include singles on other races and also I have noticed that when I'm looking for lay bets in the lower grade races I quite often find what appears to be good ew selections at a decent price. I will definitely include some of these.
Four good quality races at Salisbury, three at Thirsk and one at WIndsor tomorrow so will take a look at these
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10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
This may be the case in the winter months. In the summer months the strike rate is 33% and backing the AW favourites generates a profit.
One note of caution, 2019 showed a loss.
Many thanks M for a balanced view for us punters.
One question occurs to me with regards to all these stats. Would you place a bet based purely upon the stats?
Also, you mentioned earlier you would be re-visiting "horses returning to racing within 5 days" I don't think that you would blindly back horses despite the wonderful stats. However, it occurs to me that many punters would because they are looking to minimise the time they spend on researching their betting. The same goes for punters looking for top rated horses which I must confess I find a dubious way of selecting horses to bet on
Hence, what sort of advice would you suggest to punters for them to carry out in addition to pure stats/ratings before putting their hard earned cash on a horse?
Sorry, this is a tough question.
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5 hours ago, BillyHills said:
Yeah, we have had lots Trotter and many of these questions have been asked and answered before but we do have new members so its useful to have it.
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Haha, it occurs to me that you could write up a compendium of FAQ's so that we can all assimilate it so as to avoid putting forward repetitive questions
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3 hours ago, BillyHills said:
The Equaliser, it's funny watching you ask a question or query something and all of the little helpers running around giving you advice and stats.
I wondered why you asked if you could start this thread?
It's a good read anyway
I started it because I thought that it may help people who have genuine questions about horse racing and betting and, of course any newbies seeking help. Sure, I throw in questions that may help me in my endeavour to either find winners and/or losers. I am pretty sure that the voluntary replies given by PL members with years of experience does help other punters beside myself.
Incidentally, I am still in the same camp as @Trotter in as much as I wouldn't place a bet on a selection just because of a statistic. i.e. I like to look at a race and consider the opposition before either backing or laying a horse. However, I will definitely now take notice of a relevant statistic such as a "horse having a recent run" so as not to "lay" it just because I think that the race has come too soon.
I have improved a bit recently on my winner finding and am pleased that my Trixies (not today though) in selecting shorter priced quality race selections is starting to pay off.
On the "lay" bets side I am trialling £2.11 lay bets on first or maybe second favourites with a max liability of £10 per transaction. I want to increase my staking to £21.10 in the near future but, as you may appreciate risking up to a £100 for a £20 return will take a lot of guts and being correct on a lot of occasions for me to make a profit .
I don't think it does any harm for punters who just want to back horses to win or each way to look at the relevant factors that may cause a horse not to win. After all it could save them some money! ?
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Two lay bets at Wolverhampton
5.50 Independence Day £2.11 @ 3.50 (UM 3.70) £2 v £5.28 liability. Will have to ping the gates to win this 5f event. Bad draw as well. 4 decent challengers
6.20 Choral Work. £2.11 @ 4.70 = £2 v £7.81 Market expect this one to sprout wings. Has 3 decent challengers
Both the above two lost and my bets were matched so a £4 profit on the day. I was a bit nervous about Choral Work but I told myself even if it did win I would still oppose another horse in similar circumstances in the future (I.e. the horse had achieved very little and none of the experts gave it a good write up). The balance c/fwd is + £12.96
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One £1 Trixie today = £4 v £34.85 (still using bet credits so a reduced return forecast)
2.00 Cart Fort De L'Ocean 2/1
3.30 San Enemy 6/5
4.35 San Gypsey Whisper 11/4Singles bets
1.10 San Bright Armor £2 win at 3.7 = £5.13 (the media band wagon has gone for Perroto but I don't see backing this one at 13/8 is of value)
4.05 San Margaret Dumont £1 win at 5/1 (revolver was showing at 4/5 last night, drifted an back to evens now)4.35 San Fan Tail £1 win at 4/1
4.35 San Arabic Charm £1 win at 11/212.50 Cart Now Children £1 win at 9/2
2.35 Cart Shantaluze 50p win at 10/1 (been off a long time)
3.10 Cart Achill Road Boy £1 win at 7/2
3.45 Cart The Steward £1 win at 9/2
3.45 Cart Glen Y Gors 50p win at 8/1
3.45 Cart Zig Zag 50p win at 14/1
Should be fun to watch this raceMultiples = £4
Singles = £9.50
Total stakes = £13.50
Hopefully back later with some lay bets
Just one winner in the Trixie so no return = £4 loss = Balance c/fwd £659.72 (£800 Bank)
Pity that Arabic Charm got beaten a neck at 7/1. At least Glen Y Gors won at 8/1 so a £5.50 loss on the day. The balance c/fwd on my singles is now £297.22 (Bank £400)Loads of class action tomorrow so I will not need to look at class 4 races.
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3.45 Cart Zig Zag one point win at 16/1 with WilliamHill
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7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Backing horses after a recent run is a "system" that seems to have stood the test of time. On the flat over the last few years the results for horses running less again less than 5 days ago is
378 winners
1,109 runners
84.41 points LSP (8% ROI).
It has delivered a profit in each of the last 5 years.
Hi M, Looks like laying these beasts with a 34% strike rate is not a good strategy. Many thanks for your help
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Many thanks @Trotter and @kroni for your very helpful and useful advice. In relation to "a very recent run" I think that it may be best to conclude that if the trainer runs the horse then it should be assumed that the horse will give its running. But as you say, if checking back on the previous race I find that it indeed had a very hard race then it could be a factor that the horse may well not be on top form today. One would hope that the trainer would not run it in these circumstances.
Looks as though I can only apply "a very recent run" as being a good "lay" factor in very limited circumstances.
I will continue to seek out as many factors as I can that may influence a short priced favourite failing to live up to market expectations.
Although tricky I love to choose from class 5, 6 and 7 races for horses to be the most unreliable in giving their running. Obviously horses dropping down in grade have to be treated with extra care before considering them for "lay" purposes.
Once again, many thanks
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When should I take notice that a horse is running too soon after a very recent race and may not have had time to get over its recent exhertions?
I quite often read the comment that a horse may not have got over its very recent race and I'm not sure when to take notice of it. As I understand it sprinters can quite easily have a number of runs in quick succession and it doers not make much difference. However, when one gets into distance races I thought that it did matter.
Anyway, what has prompted my question is that I layed Court Jurado in the 4.50 Stratford this afternoon mainly on the basis that it may not handle the sharp track and had made mistakes at Southwell over two miles on Tuesday. I additionally thought that it may not have got over its recent exertions and may faulter because of this too. Well, it didn't. It not only handled the track OK but I was lucky that Getawaytonewbay ran a blinder and won by 3 and 3/4 lengths at 17/2.
Does anyone know if there are any proven statistics that show horses under specific race conditions will not run well after a very recent run?
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One lay bet for the time being
4.50 Stra Court Jurado £2.11 @ 2.80 I/R UM 2.96 atm = Liab £3.80 v £2.00 Made mistakes at Southwell when looked like winning on Tuesday. Won't get away with them on this sharp track
Well, my reason for the "lay" bet was a bit mis-placed, however another horse beat mine and therefore a profit of £2 was produced.
The C/Fwd balance on my "lay" bets is now + £8.96
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2 hours ago, BoobyBets said:
Hello, I posted a new message saying hello in the Announcement section.
First tip I'm trying today is a massive price of 33-1... in a selling handicap ?
Kibaar in the 1:45 at Ripon is a monkey in the stalls and tends to rear up when leaving. Not showed much for some time and might be out with the washing today again, BUT... definitely has ability on a going day, has a ridiculously low mark and wouldn't be surprised at all if he was to bounce back to life on the day the trainer's grandad has the usual memorial race, quite rightly named after him.
Good luck whatever you do today. ? ?
A very warm welcome to Punters Lounge, I hope that you will find us amenable and that you will be successful
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One Trixie today for £1.50 = £6 poss return of £60.36
3.20 Rip Fishable 6/4
5.20 Str See The Sea 2/1
5.50 Str Demon D'Aunou 11/4 (Distance winner and hopefully gets a clear round today)Other bets
1.15 Rip Bossipop 50p win at 9/1
1.15 Rip Wentworth Falls 50p win at 6/1
1.15 Rip Fairy Stories 50p ew at 25/1 (I'm a sucker for the big prices)2.50 Rip Billy No Mates £1 win at 9/2
2.50 Rip Clearance £1 win at 6/1 (up 8lbs but the so called experts think it can overcome the hike!)4.40 Bath Just The Man £1 win at 6/1 (Overwrite should win this)
5.20 Stra Operatic Expert £1 win at 6/1 (let's see if the doc can work his magic)
5.50 Stra Demon D'Aunou £1 win at 11/4
5.50 Stra Tel'art £1 win at 4/17.20 Stra Bbold £1 win at 7/2 (looks a good price)
Total £6 Multiples
Total £9 on singles
= £15 Total outlay
Back later with lay bets
I had a double in on the Trixie; kicking myself for not puting Monty's Reward in instead of Demon DAunou but that's life. the double paid £11.44 (interesting how the figures are calculated using bet credits); less £6 outlay = a profit of £5.44. The balance C/fwd is now £663.72 (£800 Bank)
I had two singles winners one at 13/2 and one at 4/1. £6.50 net and £5 on the 4/1 shot = £11.50 less £9 = £2.50 profit. The balance C/Fwd is £302.72
Some class 3 and class 4 action tomorrow so there is some hope of horses runnig to market expectations
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1.15 Rip Bossipop one point win at 10/1 with Bet365
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1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said:
Very many thanks for your reply, I will investigate the writer's books and his associates despite them maybe being failed punters as you suggest.
I can't understand why you are so against "lay" betting. It seems to me that with your knowledge of how favourites can or cannot be favoured by specific race conditions you could be making a small fortune. As seen when you kindly looked at the race I mentioned there seemed to be no significant reason why OP should sprout wings and win the race.
Looks as though I now need to research how the sporting world calculates whether an opening handicap mark for a horse is generous or not. Despite how that is determined I still can't see how a horse that has been running badly is supposed to be transformed into a selection becoming favourite.
Ps I like crap races (class 5.6 & 7) for my lay bets. I believe that they say up North, where there's muck there's brass
Thanks again
Racing Chat - Monday Aug 10th
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted · Edited by The Equaliser
Results Update
One Trixie today for £1.50 = £6 v £43.16
1.15 Sou Robyynd Zone 11/8
2.30 Leic Monza City 7/4
4.00 Leic Sorrel 10/11 (nearly didn't back it because odds on)
Other bets:
2.30 Leic Monza City £2win at 7/4
2.15 Sou Croco Bay £1 win at 11/2
3.45 Sou Purple King £1 win at 5/2
3.45 Sou Calvanist 50p ew at 10/1
5.00 Leic Society Red £1 ew at 13/2 (big spender)
4.55 Ches Cuban Breeze £1 win at 7/2 (the trainer's a maestro here)
5.30 Ches True Blue Moon £1 win at 10/3
6.30 Ches Dark Pursuit 50p ew at 15/2 (dark Horse in the race)
7.00 Ches Data Protection 50p ew at 8/1
8.00 Ches Gabial The One £1 win at 9/2 (hopefully the value in the race)
Multiples £6
Singles = £11
Total stakes £17
Maybe back later
Have a good day everyone, I know I will
Well my favourite hot pots failed me today so a Trixie loss of £6. The balance c/fwd is £662.16 (£800 Bank)
I had a mixed bag of results with my singles bets. For an £11 outlay I had returns of £13.93 hence a small profit of £2.93. My singles balance c/fwd is £297.15 (£400 Bank)
Dross racing tomorrow with the best being at Perth. Not sure about doing a multiple bet