The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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19 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
I tend to limit myself to £120 per day and £60 per selection. So if I have 10 selections I will put £12 on each one, if 1 selection £60.
It has taken me many years to get to this level, initially I started with a maximum of £5 per day. If I get to the stage where I have made an annual loss then I will reduce my stakes substantially.
Do you keep records of your selections?
From my records I find I make most money on the longer odds shots so in theory I should put more money on these, you do however have to have the mentality to withstand long losing runs if doing this.
I did have a run where I lost over £1,000 in a 4 week period but the next day I had £40 on a 33/1 shot so recovered all those losses in 1 race.
I don't keep records of my selections but I do have a good idea as to which bandwidths work for me. For example, since I have been choosing either the 1/1 to 15/8 and/or the 2/1 - 7/2 ranges for my multiples I have had a lot more success than when I used to try my multiples on a price range of 3/1 upwards. Unfortunately I still have the deficit to make up to get back to my initial £800. I feel very confident that I will do so.
Interesting that you would put £60 on selections and divide the £120 figure by the number of selections that you have on any one day. Also, did you purposely reduce your stake for the 33/1 shot or did you have 3 selections on that day?
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7 hours ago, Trotter said:
A question that often pops up is whether it is better to specialise in a subset of racing ....... based on race type, class, distance, age group or something else
Obviously with so much racing it is impossible to keep a handle on everything ..... and impossible to look at every race every day unless you just give them the briefest of glimpses
Probably my most successful period of betting and in the various competitions was a few years ago when I mainly stuck to the All Weather. But I think that was because I was spending a lot of time on it ........ typically I would spend all night looking at the following day's races. Someone once said 'the harder I work the luckier I get' ! I was keeping all sorts of notes, stats, doing speed ratings, keeping my own trainer notes etc. I think if you're putting a lot of work in I think it is worth specialising just to cut down the number of races you're looking at. I think the All Weather is particularly suited to this because the main season is over the winter when you don't need to worry about horses running outside of the box that you've drawn because there's no other flat racing for them to run in
At the moment I'm having a go at long distance races ..... ideally 3 mile plus hurdles and 14 furlongs plus on the flat
Quite interesting because in any race you'll usually find a fair proportion of the runners who haven't won over or not got much form at all the extended trip so it's a different puzzle ...... will the horse get the trip or more realistically 'will it be effective over the trip'? All horses would probably stay 3 miles if they went slowly enough ........ same as me, I can walk 3 miles but I can't run 3 miles.
And then apart from the trip you've got to assess all the usual factors of class, going, track, trainer etc
I'm a bit of a flitter .... I flitter from one thing to another sometimes in as little as a few days so not sure how long I'll be concentrating on stayers but if I notice anything worth commenting on I'll post further with some examples
I like the way that you are always looking for an angle to help us punters
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On 7/23/2020 at 6:25 PM, BillyHills said:
Brilliant winner; beat my hotpot
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2 hours ago, BillyHills said:
I have noticed the ATR site now has 'smart stats' on the racecards
I think this is a welcome addition and i much prefer them now to the Post who just gets worse unless you pay for the extras.
Ascot Tomorrow for example.
https://www.attheraces.com/racecards/Ascot/25-July-2020/SmartStats
Looks very interesting Graham. One can get to the 5 year stats in the RP. I don't know how reliable they are though. Will definitely give this a go ?
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19 hours ago, roger2256 said:
Have to agree with BH on both counts , if you have a selection, you chose it because you believe it can win whatever price it is is irrelevant in my opinion. If it's a big price I may check again but ultimately it will be a standard bet or nothing.
As far as losing runs go, we all have them but i believe if you are confident in your selection process there shouldn't be a problem. A sufficient bank is the key , I can go days without a winner ( as you can see with this months naps table ) but I have confidence with what I do, its stood me in good stead so why tinker . Have confidence . Another interesting point is many get too emotional about losing, if you have made selections for that day and they lose that should be it not scampering about for ' frankie's good thing in the next will get my money back ' or ' lay x that's easy money ' or tinkering , 'well if I do this from now on this should happen ' if I leave out class xyz I can do this . There is a winner of every race , Stick to the plan but whatever you do dont bet with money you cant afford to lose and dont bet with scared money either. Good luck all
I agree with a lot of what you say but we will have to beg to differ over staking within different price ranges.
The variable staking as I have described not only serves to aid money management but also reflects upon the probability of a horse winning a race. A horse at even money (ignoring overround) has in theory and by and large in practice a 50% chance of winning a race. Likewise, a horse priced at 9/1 has a 10% chance of winning a race.
As you know, the only way that you, me or anyone else who is having a bet can make money is to have struck bets at odds that are longer than a horse’s true chance of winning e.g. 60% in the case of the even-money shot and perhaps 20% in the case of the 9/1 shot.
However, there has to be a big difference in the winning and losing runs of 50% chance horses and 10% chance horses.
For this reason, I am suggesting that it is best to proportionally stagger one’s stakes when placing bets within various price ranges.
Horse race selection is not an exact science as we all know. We all may think that we have found a good thing at a great price, and of course, if it wins we congratulate ourselves that we did. However, punting on a day to day basis inevitably leads us to be subject to the certainty of market forces i.e. in the main the results will comply overall in percentage terms line with the prices that were offered e.g. even-money favourites will tend to win 50% of the time etc.
The beauty of categorising one’s possible bets into price bandwidths is that if we decide that we wish to say select some 10/1 shots in the mix of our daily bets and then reduce the stake from say a £2 win for a 7/2 shot and instead have four 50p win bets then we are increasing our chance of uncovering a bet with extra value added to it.
I don’t believe that any horse that I back will win. All I am doing is seeking better odds than a horse’s chance of success so that I can win in the long run.
I also, feel very confident that seasoned and respected campaigners such as yourself, Graham and Mclarke are not going to lose your shirts any time soon. However, Punters Lounge is always welcoming new members and of course, no one knows what sort of experience that they have been through betting wise before joining. It is in this regard I feel that my advice may help them to secure a long happy relationship with their betting
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6.35 N Abb Kentford Heiress one point win at 10/1 with Bet365
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One Trixie today, quite a lot of Band A selections to choose from:
2.25 Bev Le Chiffre £2 win at 2/1
7.25 Rip Al Muffrih £2 win at 9/4 = 2/1 for multiple
7.35 N Abb Soldier Of Love £2 win at 6/4
One £1.50 win Trixie = £4 v Poss return of £62.64One other singles bet:
1.10 Nm Zap £1 win at 6/1. Al Rufaa is a strong favourite but may exhaust itself by not settling
Total multiples = £6
Total Singles = £7
Total stakes so far = £13
I will have to come back later with 50p bets as I am too busy this morning to sort them out
A few extra bets at 50p ew.
3.20 Nm Ethics Approval 10/1
4.10 Bev Cottonopolis 22/1 (PL Tip)
4.35 NAbb Punkwallagh 12/1Still working on these so back a bit later
Back for a few dollars more. All 50p EW
4.45 Bev Blazon 11/1
5.05 NAb Rocket Ronnie 11/1
5.35 NAb Ali the Hunter 10/1
6.35 NAb Kentford Heiress 10/1
8.05 NAb Barton Rose 12/1Total single stakes now £15
Multiples £6
= Total stakes £21
I drew a blank on my mutiples today; one winner and two seconds = a £6.00 loss. The multiples balance C/Fwd is now £639.83 (£800 Bank)
I did at least get one singles bet in which meant a £7 outlay and £5 return = a £2 loss. I had a disatrous day with my 50p bets. Not even one got placed. Cottonapolis only managed 3rd at 22/1 which would have been good at 1/4 the odds had it got 2nd. Hence loss on 50p bets = -£8.00. Total singles losses = -£10 and multiples = - £6.00 so a £16 total loss for the day. The total singles balance C/Fwd = £348.79 (Bank £400). The 50p balance C/Fwd is - £7.65
There are about 13 high class races tomorrow so I shouldn't need to look at class 4 races for my multiple bets
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2 hours ago, calva decoy said:
Blind Punting .
At the moment my 3 favoured accounts out of the numerous I've tried are suspended on my terms.
I've had a shocking July other than at Hong Kong who are now on a break so my accounts will be back open on August 1st , I feel it's good to take a break mentally & a will power challenge as well , still post a Nap up daily here & in tipster challenge , does anybody else on here have a break when on a bad run , or do you just punt blindly ?
Sorry to hear about your bad run. We all have them from time to time. I think that it is a good idea to take a break and a rest from racing sometimes. I also agree with Graham that he doesn't like to get out of touch. One thing that no one should ever do is punt blindly. I am pretty sure that most punters would agree with me, however you will find all the bookmakers, I feel sure, tell you that your luck might change. It is almost certain that their's will
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1 hour ago, BillyHills said:
Each to their own TE but you shouldn't let the price rule your stakes too much in my opinion.
I get it that if a horse is 25/1 you may 'not need' to have much on but I see no difference in backing a 4/5 shot or 4/1 shot, i'd have the same on.
Just my opinion, not saying i'm right
I don't believe taking a break helps me, i need to be watching and taking an interest all the time to keep up. I may reduce stakes a tad or maybe look for a 'safer' bet or EW bet to build the confidence back up . Thats my way of handling a poor run. We all have them.
I thinks its also important to make hay when your luck changes too.
Hmm. I am not saying that you are wrong but the point I was making was much about protecting my betting bank. Using your example, a horse that is priced at 4/5 has (ignoring any overound) a probability of winning about 56% of the time. A horse at 4/1 has a twenty percent chance of winning. If I had a £100 bank and I liked to bet £10 on each horse I would feel fairly confident that I wouldn't have a run of 10 losers on the trot and exhaust my bank account. However, I would not be so happy to place £10 on each selection at 4/1. I reckon that I could easily blow my betting bank.
Haha, you remind me of the great Phil Bull of Timeform fame. He used to say that if your staking plan can't win at even stakes then no amount of fiddling with stakes, especially increasing them after losers would help. However, even he in his later life would put up to three times the amount of stake on what he thought was a very good bet
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Getting Value and Managing your Money when placing bets in horse racing.
Hopefully, this topic will be of interest to PL members. I am outlining my point of view on this but truly welcome anyone else’s thoughts about it.
Managing my money comes quite easy to me as I have had years of experience in doing so. Concerning racing, I manage my money by adjusting my betting stakes in accordance with available odds on offer. It goes without saying that one looks for the highest odds available when striking a bet. Additionally, I always advise my fellow punters to set aside some money for their betting activities and to use this money for the sole purpose of betting. Some people may save up all year round to go on a £1,000 plus holiday and I can see nothing wrong in an interested punter doing the same but setting aside the money for betting purposes. If managed properly the set aside money will last a lot longer than a holiday which is over in about one to two weeks. Never bet money that is meant to be used for daily living costs.
I like to break my staking in accordance with the best available odds on offer as follows.
(A) Odds 1/1 – 15/8 Stakes = £4.00 min profit £4 to max profit £7.50
(B) Odds 2/1 – 7/2 Stakes = £2.00 min profit £4 to max profit £7.00
(C ) Odds 4/1 - 9/1 Stakes = £1.00 min profit £4 to max profit £10.00
(D) Odds 10/1 – 24/1Stakes = £0.50 min profit £5 to max profit of £12
(E ) Odds 25/1 – 100/1+ stakes = £0.25 min profit £6.25 to max profit of say £25
Just a couple of notes on this. I rarely have faith in placing £4 stakes on even money to 15/8 shots as they seem to let me down too much. Also, I tend to put 50p on my 25/1 + bets as they are few and far between. I don’t have a staking criterion for odds on shots; I rarely back them. If I am tempted with selections that are slightly odds on I will not exceed a £4 stake on any of them.
The good thing about breaking down market prices into the above bandwidths is that one can then use these categories to assess which selection(s) offer the best value for money in betting terms. Hence, if I am looking at say 4/5 races with horses within the price range of (B) 2/1 TO 7/2 I can just focus on each horse in each race and then decide for myself which is the best horse to back. The factors affecting my decision are of course variable but by methodically looking at each one, in turn, I can conclude as to which one(s) are most likely to give me a run for my money. Just for example if horse number one hasn’t been out since the jumps season last year and its yard is yet to strike form and horse number two has excellent recent form and its yard is banging in the winners it doesn’t take too much deliberation to decide which should be the best horse to give me a run for my money.
I hope that PL members will find this information helpful and of course welcome anyone else’s approach to money management and getting value for money in their betting.
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5.35 Pont Aiya one point win at 33/1 with Bet365
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One Trixie today. Had loads to go through. Avoided the really short priced favourites but still no Jackpot if my selections win
12.35 Uttx Hunting Percival 15/8 (£2 win at 2/1)
2.40 Uttx Get Back Get Back 11/5
3.10 Uttx Mercian Prince 11/4
One £1 win Trixie = Poss Return of £66.48Singles bets:
5.00 Ponte Highway Grey £1 win at 5/1
50p Bets
3.10 Uttx Scoop The Pot 50p ew 25/1
2.40 Uttx Dream Machine 50p ew at 16/1
3.40 Uttx Mystic court 50p Win at 14/1
3.40 Uttx Yes No Maybe So 50p win at 14/1
1.10 Uttx Lamh At Lamh 50p ew at 12/1
1.50 Pont Hoof's Happy Now 50p ew at 12/1
2.20 Pont Sheepscar Lad 50p ew at 12/1
5.00 Pont Salsada 50p ew at 12/1
5.35 Pont Aiya 50p ew at 33/1Multiples = £4
Singles = £11
Total stakes £15
What a pity that Mercian Prince got beat; I would have received £85. Intsead I had to settle for a double of £14. This meant a profit on multiples today of £10.00
My multiples balance C/Fwd is now £645.83 (Bank £800)
Three singles win bets and one placed bet. The returns were £21.10 hence a profit of £10.10 on the day.
My Singles balance C/Fwd is £358.79 (Bank £400)
The 50p bets amounted to a return of £7.10 from £8.00 stakes which was a loss of £0.90p. The balance C/fwd is a staggering 35p profit
Looks to be about 11 races tomorrow class 4 to class 2, most quality in the evening. We shall see.
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Hi everyone,
I feel that it may be worth while to start a general racing chat thread that may be useful for PL members.
Whether one wants to discuss the benefit or otherwise of horse race ratings, if a short priced favourite is better to back to win in a class 1 race as opposed to a class 6 race, which are the best bookies to use and/or gripes with them or Betfair or just about anything that you feel is worth bringing up during the racing week then I invite you to express yourself in this thread.
Whilst the "Racing Chat" thread does a good job of enabling PL members to write up, usually about their daily selections, I feel that interesting topics do not get extended discussion because the thread moves on the next day with new chat and what has been mentioned in the previous day's chat is very often lost.
I feel that many people may wish to discuss something about racing and this seems to be a good place to do it.
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7 hours ago, BillyHills said:
Feel free to start a thread and all it 'Racing Topics' 'Racing Issues' or whatever just don't call it Racing Chat
I get massages all the time mate so not sure why you cant send them??
@BillyHills Many thanks for your reply, I will try and start one simply called "General Racing Chit Chat"
I obviously did something wrong when I tried to message you.
Enjoy those massages
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With such low class racing today I am skipping trying to find multiples or horses that should qualify for £2 or even £1 stakes. It's hard enough trying to find the beasts running in higher class races to perform to expectations.
Instead I have gone for a number of 50p win bets. I am very pleased to toggle between Sportsbook and Bet365 for the best prices. Also, Bet 365 seems to have the most reliable "live streaming" of races; I find that Betfair and Sportsbook live streaming are notorious at cutting out during watching a race which is very annoying
50p win bets
12.45 Yar Rivierra Belle 12/1
1.50 Yar Break Cover 11/1
3.20 Yar Wrath Of Hector 10/1
3.50 Yar Fard 12/1
4.20 Yar Internationalangel 12/1
4.50 Yar No Nay Bella 16/1
1.10 Bath Plum run 12/1
1.40 Bath Miracle Garden 16/1
4.10 Bath Pike Corner Cross 11/1
8.30 Catt Thawry 12/1= £5 total singles stakes
I do have some other qualifiers but can only get 9/1 atm so they are on hold.
Good luck to all punting today. Be careful out there
Just one winner today Wrath Of Hector which returned £5.50 so a profit of 50p on the day
Singles balance C/Fwd = £348.69 (£400 Bank)
50P bets show a £1.25 cumulative profit
The Multiple balance remains the same at £635.83 (£800 Bank)
I had four placed horses today, a couple at very good prices, so from tomorrow I will take the unprecedented step, for me that is, in backing my selections 50p each way where there are 8 or more runners declared for my races. I will probably have fewer selections but hopefully I will get a decent run from them.
Four class 3 and one class one race tomorrow, though Dark Vision is forecast at evens for the class one race (Yukk!). Some class 4 action so a better day tomorrow I hope ?
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4.50 Yar No Nay Bella one point at 16/1 with Bet365
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Hi Graham,
I hope and trust that you are well?
I am wondering if you will be able to open up a continuous and on-going Racing Chat thread. I like the daily racing chat and of course this serves its own purpose. However, some topics, I feel, should be discussed over time e.g. your Aussie contributor who complained about all the messing about we have to endure with horses refusing to go into starting stalls etc. The trouble with putting such topics in the daily racing chat is that once the day is over then very few people look back into the previous day and just put new stuff, usually tips into the current racing chat. The sort of thing I am looking for is a thread like the £20 challenge that just runs on and on although anyone can join in at any time.
Hope this can be done,
The Equaliser
Ps I tried to message you but a response came up saying you couldn't receive messages
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4.25 San Holwah one point win at 16/1 with Bet365
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Two Trixies, a double and singles today:
6.40 Sand It's a Good Laugh 7/1
7.15 San Fev Rover 13/8
7.45 San Diocletian 16/5
One 50p win Trixie = £2 v £76.916.40 San Amir Kabir 7/1
7.15 San Fev Rover 13/8
7.45 San Diocletian 16/5
One 50p win Trixie = £2 v £76.917.15 San Fev Rover 13/8
7.45 San Diocletian 15/4
One £2 win double = £22.05Total multiples = £6.00
Singles:
6.40 San It's Good to Laugh £1 win at 11/2
6.40 San Amir Kabir £1 win at 7/1
7.15 San Fev Rover £2 win at 13/8
7.45 san Diocletian £2 Win at 7/250p win bets today
8.15 San Fibonacci at 10/1
4.25 San Holwah at 12/1
8.45 San Mastawah at 11/1
1.05 Chep Aquadabra at 12/1
2.45 Chep Knights Gate 11/1
2.45 Chep Corofin 18/1
4.50 Chep Barrier Reef 12/1
5.25 Chep Master Grey 10/1Total 50p win bet stakes = £4.00
Other win bet stakes = £6.00Total stakes today = £16.00
Should be an entertaining day if nothing else
Two winners today but not in my multiples. Diocletian let me down badly by being very slowly away and finishing nowhere.
Anyway, Singles win = Fev Rover drifted to 9/4 = £6.50 v £6.00 = 50p Profit
One winner in 50p stake bets at 10/1. Therefore -£4 stake + £5.50 return = + £1.50 = + £0.75 C/Fwd
Singles Balance c/fwd = £348.19 (£400 Bank)Multiples - £6 therefore C/Fwd Balance = £635.83 (£800 Bank)
Just one class 3 race tomorrow at Bath 2.40. Not much in the way Class 4 races either. Looks like I won't be making up multiples. Hopefully my 10/1 + shots will be more productive.
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11 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
I used to have a lot of accounts with bookmakers and just got confused with all that was going on. I then decided to just use Betfair especially as I am interested in "lay" betting. I couldn't resist the temptation today when I saw "Get An Oscar" shown as 25/1 when Betfair Sportsbook was showing about 16/1. I did enjoy today being able to watch and take advantage over the differing two comparisons. Also, if a horse comes within my category of 2/1 - 7/2 then my stakes are £2 and I can use the Betfair Exchange where I can invariably get better odds. I'll see how it goes before embarking on other bookmaker accounts. Thanks for your helpful comment though.
One thing that has annoyed me today was that for one of my 50p bets I chose Glamerous Anna and backed it at 10/1 (in the race where I also backed Yimou for £2 and included the beast in my multiples). Anyway, Glamerous Anna won at an SP of 13/2. However, Grandfather Tom was withdrawn from the race at a price of 14/1. The Racing Post said that there should have been a deduction of 5p in the pound. Betfair Sports Book has deducted 15p in the pound which I think is wrong. I checked the Rule 4 deduction tables. Even if Sportsbook used the 13/2 price the deduction should have only been 10p in the pound. I don't know if you have ever used the Betfair messaging service but it is a nightmare to resolve queries. These people always seem to want screenshots and even then always claim that they are right and will not amend anything it seems to me
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5.30 Win The Stalking Moon one point win at 40/1 with Bet365
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1 minute ago, Trotter said:
what a bummer ........ I spent ages on that race and now my horse is a non runner !
?
sod it, I'll have a day off and watch the cricket !
I half thought that you would watch golf instead ?
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One multiple today with 4 selections
4.20 Ayr Thai Terrier £1 win AT 9/2
5.00 Win Theotherside £2 win at 9/4
7.00 Win Yimou £2 win at 3/1
7.30 Win A La Voile £2 at 11/46 doubles at 70p = £4.20 v poss return of £70.48
4 trebles at 40p = £1.60 v poss Return of £107.91Other singles bets:
I have had to bite the bullet and open an account with Bet365 as I'm fed up with Betfair/Paddy Power serving up cramped odds.
2.40 M/Rasen Get an Oscar 50p win at 25/1 Bet365
7.00 Win Glamerous Anna 50p win at 10/1I have loads of other potential 50p win bets but have run out of time in the run up to my lunch time activities. May come back later with some add ons. I have noticed that the sporting press seems to focus on old form rather than current form for their selection processes. I guess that is where the value may be found but I believe that it is much safer to concentrate on good recent form myself.
Total Multiple bets = £5.80
Total Single bets = £8.00 (Let's hope that the more fancied horses live up to expectations today
Total stakes = £13.80
A couple more. Couldn't get the right prices on the others.
5.30 Win The Stalking Moon 50p win at 40/1
8.00 Win Jen's Fella 50p win at 33/1Total singles stakes now £9.00
Two winners today but not in my multiples unfortunately. I chose Thai Terrier over Glasses Up and that was a mistake.
Anyway Multiples -£5.80 and a balance C/Fwd of £641.83 (£800 Bank)
Singles produced two winners won at 3/1 for £2 and a 50p winner at 10/1 that was, in my opinion, was wrongly reduced by 15p in the pound as the withdrawn horse was 14/1 and the rule 4 deduction should have been 5p in the pound. I may dispute this with Betfair Sportsbook but one needs the patience of Job to try and resolve any queries on Betfair IMO. Anyway the return was £4.75. Hence the outlay was £9.00 with returns of £12.75 = a profit of £3.75. The C/Fwd balance is £346.19 (£400 bank)
The 50p bets showed a profit of £2.75 less B/Fwd -£3.50 = C/Fwd - £0.75
Very few good quality races today; I will have to make the numbers up with Class 4 races.
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3.50 Sou Grania OMalley one point win at 11/1 with Bet365
GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
I rather find that the ability to forget is very often more important than the ability to remember ?
I do keep records of my results but I would find it nigh on impossible to keep records of how I arrived at any particular selection.