The Equaliser
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Posts
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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5.40 Nb Buccaneers Vault one point win at 16/1 with bet365
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No Multiple bet today; I don't even like the look of the short priced favourites
Some single bets though:
1.20 Stra Mighty Meg 50p win at 11/1
1.50 Stra Czech Her Out 50p win at 22/1
2.10 Rip Benadalid £1 win at 11/2 (at least it has proven recent form)
3.50 Stra Flying Verse £1 win at 4/1 Remains to be seen if Paul Nicholls can finally get Captain Bucks to win)
3.50 Stra Play The Ace £1 win at 8/1
5.40 Newb Rasheeq £1 win at 13/2
5.40 Newb Buccaneers Vault £1 win at 17/2 (why take 4/1 for Normandy Barriere when Buccaneers Vault is so closely matched)£6 Total win bets
Just one winner today at 22/1, can't believe that Czech Her Out got backed into 8/1 SP. Anyway outlay = £6.00 Return = £11.50 hence a £5.50 profit on the day
Single balance C/fwd £386.55 (£400 Bank)
Multiples balance B/fwd £648.04 (Bank £800)
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Summerghand won so - £20 so far on lay bets
6.15 Leic Pilot Wings £21.10 @ 4.7 = £78.10 liability (PL tip as well, but EW win) Unmatched at 4.8 right now. two non runners (30% reduction factor)
8.15 Leic Mykindofsunshine £21.10 @ 3.55 (matched) = £53.80 liabilityIn hindsight it was wrong of me to lay a strong favourite in a class 3 race. My two class 6 horses were well beaten so some good compensation. Therefore -£20 + £20 + £20 = a £20 profit on the day.
B/Fwd = £34.30 + £20 = £54.30
I am beginning to enjoy this. Hopefully I will get better at finding the adverse factors that will influence the anticipated poor running of my "Lay" horses.
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6.45 Leic Geetanjali one point win at 18/1 with Betfair
6.45 Leic Mr Coco Bean one point win at 4/1 williamhill
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No Trixie today as I could only find two runners worthy of support.
3.20 Pont Salayel £2 win at 3/1 ( I don't think that Scentasia will have the stamina for this stiff mile)
3.55 Pont Golden Apollo £2 win at 7/2 (Summerghand is odds on here but I feel that a hold up horse is worth opposing)£4 win double = poss return of £72
Other singles bets:
1.50 Pont Harry Love 25p win at 28/1
1.50 Pont Queen's Order 25p at 20/13.55 Pont Watchable 50p at 12/1
Total stakes = £9.00
Back later with other Lay bets but I will lay Summerghand £21.10 @ 1.95 = £20 v £20 liability (in some ways I don't mind if it wins as my fellow punters who follow favourites will win some dosh)
A complete blank today. I was wrong to oppose Summerghand but right in opposing Scentasia.
£4 loss on Multiples = £648.04 C/Fwd (£800 Bank)
£5 loss on Singles = £381.05 C/Fwd (£400 Bank)
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Today's Lay Bets:
6.00 Thirsk Zuckarberg £21.10 @ 3.8 = £59.10 (unmatched yet 5.2)
8.00 Thirsk Rosa Gold £21.10 @ 2.62 = £ 34.20 (u/m yet 3.7)
9.00 Thirsk Kitty's Cove £21.10 @ 3.85 = £60.01 (Matched)Any losers wins £20
If any horse wins the unmatched price will be matched in-running
Two wining bets = £40 less £34.20 on Rosa Gold = a profit of £5.80
Very annoying that I can't seem to get three losers on the trot. This is a bit tricky but I'm learning all the time.
Bal F/wd £28.50 + £5.80 = £34.30 C/Fwd
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8.00 Thirsk Sushi Power one point win 25/1 Betvictor
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Four class 3 races but selections not string enough for a Trixie
1.40 Ayr Flying Pursuit £1 win at 7/1
1.40 Ayr John Kirkup £1 win at 6/13.00 Uttx Jimmy Rabbitte £1 win at 9/2
3.00 Uttx Sirobbie £2 win at 4.43.30 Uttx Minellacelebration £1 win at 6/1
5.15 win Amplify £1 win at 5/1
= Total singles stakes £7.00
Back later with Lay bets. Can't get the prices I want for the Ayr races just yet. Lots of opportunities today at Thirsk later
Just one winner today at 7/1 (BOG) therefore a £1 profit on the day
Singles balance C/Fwd £386.05 (£400 Bank)
Multiples balance remains the same at £652.04 (£800 Bank)
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9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Today's Trixie and win bets
12.30 Hd Bungee Jump £1 at 9/2
1.50 San Liberty Beach £2 at 2/1
3.00 San Dark vision £1 at 4/1One £1 win Trixie = £4 v £141.50
Total stakes = £8.00
No Lay bets today. I could only find one class 6 race with 20 runners and didn't fancy picking 3 runners from one race
Two seconds meant a blank day for me. Therefore Singles balance C/Fwd £385.05 (Bank £400) and Multiples balance C/Fwd £652.04 (Bank £800)
I found it a bit annoying that just before the Coral Eclipse we find out from John Gosden that he was worried about Enabled running over 10 furlongs against Ghaiyath. I hope that not too many people lost too much money on it.
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3.00 San Via Serendipity one point win at 14/1 with Bet365
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Today's Trixie and win bets
12.30 Hd Bungee Jump £1 at 9/2
1.50 San Liberty Beach £2 at 2/1
3.00 San Dark vision £1 at 4/1One £1 win Trixie = £4 v £141.50
Total stakes = £8.00
No Lay bets today. I could only find one class 6 race with 20 runners and didn't fancy picking 3 runners from one race
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What a marvellous performance from Aiden O'Brien with yet another Derby winner. And three cheers for Tom Marquand for getting second after being jocked off English King by Ed Walker ?
LAY BETS FOR TODAY
6.25 Yar Songkran £21.10 @ 2.16 = £20 v £24.50 liability
7.55 Yar Harlow £21.10 @ 2.96 = £20 v £41.40 liability
8.25 Yar In the Red £21.10 @ 4.3 = 320 v £69.60 liabilityThis is a trial and my actual bets are £2.11 stakes. The £21.10 is what I aspire to in the future if all goes well
Songkran won by a head which was a nuisance. I thought that this race came too soon for the horse. Anyway the other two lost, Harlow coming second
P/L = -£24.50 + £20 + £20 = + £15.50
B/Fwd = + £13 +£15.50 = £28.50
I did avoid a couple of horses that won their races; let's hope I get a bit better at choosing losers. I will keep to laying favourites or near favourites for the rest of the month and if this doesn't work out right I will look to the second/third/fourth favourites. The liability is much higher of course if I do so.
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2.40 HD Club Wexford one point win at 20/1 with Bet365
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3.40 EP Love 11/8 Bet365
4.25 HD Arch Moon 3/1 Betfair
6.10 Chelm Cressida 10/3 Bet365Reserves:
1st 4.35 Chelm Intrepid Italian 4/1 Bet365
2nd 2.40 Hd Barossa Red 4/1 Bet 365 -
Todays trixie
3.40 Eps Love 5/4
4.25 Hd Arch Moon 5/2 £2 Win
6.10 Chelm Cressida 3/1 £2 winone £1 win trixie = £4 v £62.38
= Total £8 staked
Love won well but no bet as less than 2/1
No other win so £4 loss on singles and £4 loss on multiples
Singles balance C/Fwd = £389.05 (£400 Bank)
Multiples balance C/Fwd = £656.04 (£800 Bank)
Lovely day's racing spectacle though
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4.00 Hayd Flames Of York one point win at 100/1 with Bet365
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LAY BETS TODAY
1.15 Chep Avenue Of Stars £21.10 @ 2.92 = £20 v £40.05 liability. Unreliable sort and has an apprentice on it today
2.10 Ham Montalvan £21.10 @ 2.28 = £20 v £27.00 Liability. May falter in the uphill finish
8.00 Wolv Slowmow £21.10 @ 3.40 = £20 v £50.60 liability. Ran a shocker four days ago and has some worthy opponents today
NB this is very much a trial and I am only placing £2.11 on each lay bet.
Two winning bets and one loser = +£20 -£27 +£20 = + £13 c/fwd
I guess I was lucky with Avenue Of Stars and a bit unlucky with Montalvan. Slowmow led for a long way and finished last which is my idea of a good lay bet.
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One Class 3 and three class 4 races today in the UK.
1.00 Hd Chairmanic 50p win at 14/1 ( Broughtons Gold too short with 7lbs extra, Esprit Rose to easy to back, Market money for Vardent Flyer, not mine though.
4.00 Hd Dancing Approach 50p at 14/1 Well in at the weights. (Finely Tuned, too short, Nashy too easy to back)
4.00 Hd Flame Of York 25p at 40/1 Possible dark horse
4.15 Ham Dark Defender £1 at 11/2, won before at Hamilton and can defy a 4lbs rise
5.20 Ham Hortzadar £2 win at 3/1 (David Nolan rides this instead of Star Shield)
5.20 Ham Storm Ahead £1 win at 9/2 (Light rain and I hope the ground becomes soft for this one)Singles stakes = £5.25
Plus a £1 win double on Dark Defender and Hortzadar = a possible £26 return
= Total of £6.25
Back later with "Lay"Bets
Quite a good day. I had 3 winners 2 at 14/1 and one at 100/30
Total outlay on singles £5.25 and return of £23.67 = £18.42 profit. Balance C/Fwd £393.05 (Bank £400)
Dark Defender let me down so a £1 loss on the double = £660.04 C/Fwd (£800 Bank)
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8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
If you are backing favourites then you are better sticking to class 1 races rather than class 6 races. At BSP over the last 5 years on the flat you would have made a ROI of 9% on class 1 races and a loss of 3% on class 6/7 races.
I wouldn't restrict my lay bets to handicap bets because the loss has been higher for non-handicap class 6/7 races at 9%, albeit there are more handicaps than handicaps.
Interestingly a profit would have been made on the all weather courses so it may be wise to exclude these.
Also horses that finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time performed particularly badly.
Good luck, if these past trends continue you should be able to make good profits with these lay selections, as always with horse racing you have to hope the trends continue, they often don't unfortunately.
Very many thanks for your informed advice; don't know where you get the stats from but they will be very useful for me.
I don't think I can exclude All Weather venues, however, I will now approach these with extra caution.
I hope that you are keeping well? I haven't seen you post up anything since resumption from lock down. I hope that you will begin posting up again soon
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12 winning tips today. Marvelous
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4 hours ago, Trotter said:
This must be the worst day's racing since the resumption !
Going through the cards last night I couldn't find any race to bother spend time on
Which raises the question ...... should it really matter what the level of the race is ?
I mean there's a winner of every race and if you're happy with your methods of selection should they be just as valid for a class 6 handicap as for the Derby ?
Well @Trotter I think it does matter. Whilst I appreciate that favourites get turned over in the higher class races it is worthwhile to put money on the horses that are the most reliable and consistent in those type of races. The reason why favourites get beat in the higher class races is that these races are usually very competitive; all trainers want to impress their owners by winning big prize money. It is then up to us as astute punters who have the recent and past form at our disposal to assess what is the best form to work with in the prevalent race conditions. Lower class animals are just not as consistent as the their higher grade counter parts.
In an effort to prove that this is the case, in addition to my win/multiple bets, I am going to start a new section in Racing Chat for "Lay" bets on animals in the lowest class races. Ideally these will be Class 6/7 races handicap races (minimum = class5). I will work through racecards from the shortest priced forecast favourites up to a price not exceeding 10.0 (i.e.9/1). I have to have three reasons to oppose a horse which will be given. In order to make this exciting I will work towards making £60 per day in theory; however in reality I will placing £2.11 on each lay bet as I don't like to paper trade.
Even if I'm proved wrong I know I won't lose much but I feel it will be worthwhile if it is successful so that punters who hate to back low class animals to win will find that the alternative in laying them can be worthwhile.
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Poor racing on offer today. I could only find three class 4 races in the UK.
Just a couple of selections today and no multiples. Roll on the Derby meeting
3.40 Bath Union Rose £1 win at 4/1 (it seems to me to be worth taking a chance that this one will beat Real Estate as the horse likes Bath and is 3lbs better off anyway).
5.0 Wolv Just That Lord 50p win at 12/1
I do think that Motoamayiz stands a good chance in the 4.15 Bath. However, I don't back short priced horses. My minimum price is 2/1 but sometimes I accept a minimum of 7/4 in the hope that the price will drift a little to 2/1+
Both win bets lost today.
Loss of £1.50 hence singles balance C/Fwd = £374.63 (Bank £400)
Multiples balance remains the same at £661.04 (Bank £800)
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53 minutes ago, stevelc said:
Morning All
Day four of my tipping adventure, better day yesterday. I'm using two sources Racing Post as Trotter's suggestion and Horse Race Ratings. If I decide to change sources I'll say but thought it would be best to be clear.
Bellewstown 14:00 - Ingleby Mackenzie - 0.5 Points Win
Bath 14:10 - Awsaaf - 1 Point Win
Bellewstown 16:00 - Mokhalad - 1 Point Win
Bellewstown 16:30 - Jaime Sommers (IRE) - 0.5 Points Win
Sligo 18:10 - Jan Wellens - 1 Point Win
Wolverhampton 18:30 - The Fitzpiers Lion (IRE) - 0.5 Points Win
Wolverhampton 19:30 - Wrath Of Hector - 3 Point
Good luck
Yes, a better day for you yesterday. Well done. May I suggest that you keep a running tally of stakes and profit/loss.
Also it may be a good idea for you to log on to the ATR (At The Races) website as you may get a balanced view between the RP and ATR. You will also find TImeform top 3 selections and those rated with 5 stars and below to compare with your HRR.
Just a thought.
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5.00 Wolv Just That Lord one point win at 12/1with Betfair
Racing Chat - Wednesday July 8th
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
No published Lay bets today
Been chasing my tail since I got back from lunch with some lay bets and some outsider win bets.
No Class 6 races anyway; lowest Class is class 5 today
Back tomorrow on these
Good luck to anyone punting at Newbury this evening