The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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2 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
I’ve tweaked that system about a bit.
1st, 5 (7 points if horse won more that 2 lengths lto
2nd ,3 points(providing lto there was more than 4 horses running. If not, then no points)
3rd, 2 points( providing lto there was more than 7 horses running. If not then no points)
4th , 1 point(Providing lto there was more than 10 runners. If not then no points)
CD, 3
Distance ,2
Course ,1
Going , 2(Providing horse has won more than once on the going. No points if not)
Class , 1 point
Tried that out today . 2/5, so will see how tomorrow goes . Forgot to put selections up today as been really busy at work. Got 5 days off now.
Well good luck with it.
It seems a bit harsh not to give any points if a horse at least won once on the Going. Some experts say that the going or extreme changes in it can seriously affect a horse's chances. Some trainers frequently pull horses out of a race because of changes in the going.
With courses, it may be good to allow for horses that have won on different types of surfaces e.g. Turf, All Weather (and these tracks vary also).
Over the jumps it may pay to differentiate between hurdles, chase and/or NHF races.With regard to class, I'm not sure what you mean by one point. Is this awarded because a horse is running in the same class or has dropped a grade. It occurs to me that there should be no points for a horse in the same class, one for a drop in grade and, perhaps minus one for a horse being upped in grade.
I do wish you all the best with this whatever you do but I would urge you to keep stakes low until you feel confident about the system working profitably. There is of course some quite big changes to racing coming up with the main flat season not lasting for too long now and of course we have the nursery races that seem to have loads of runners. Also there is a change over to the jumps season occurring quite soon.
In any event enjoy your 5 days off, I'm sure that you have worked hard for it ☺️
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29 minutes ago, maxironchin said:
3.15 Goodwood
Circus Maximus
Aidan O'Brien trained and preferred selection of Ryan Moore. Horse is on top form at present.
(this would make a nice double for me with Mambo Nights just gone in).
Well done with Mambo Nights and good luck with Circus Maximus.
A very warm welcome to Punters Lounge
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23 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:
4.20 Goodwood-BATTERED 14/1 1/5 1-5 is a stong e/w selectiom from me. CD winner off a good mark today dropped back in trip after poor run lto will suit, trainer in good form, good jockey on top this horse tips a lot of boxes today and is a nice e/w price i expect really big run from battered in this C3 handicap.
I hope that stall12 isn't its undoing
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No multiples today; just some singles bets
1.10 Gd Be More £1 win at 11/2
1.10 Gd Dean St Doll 50p win at 11/1
1.10 Gd Lake Lucerne 50p win at 8/11.45 Gd Oleg £1 win at 7/1
1.45 Gd True Destiny £1 win at 4/12.15 Gd Encipher 50p ew at 10/1
2.45 Gd Significantly £1 ew at 9/2 (hope it drifts to 5/1 at least)
3.15 Gd Circus Maximus £1 ew at 13/2
3.45 Gd Miss Jingles £1 win at 7/2 (couldn't justify a £2 win)
4.20 Gd Arigato £1 win at 5/1
4.20 Gd Dirty Rascal 50p ew at 12/1
Both drawn low so let's hope that helps2.30 Bang Bandsman £2 win at 85/40
6.00 Thirsk Admiralty £2 win at 3/1
6.30 Thisk Hayadh 50p ew at 20/1
Total win/ew stakes = £17
Not a good day for me with just one winner and one placed selction. The winning returns were £7.13 so a loss of £9.87 on the day. The c/fwd balance on my singles bets is now £334.52 (£400 Bank)
The multiples balance remains the same at £646.18 as I did not have any multiple bets today
Goodwood continues tomorrow.
I am fed up with trying to find bargain outsider selections but will do so for the 30th and 31st July.
After that I am going take a different tack. I will just be looking at Favourites from up to three meetings. I will then decide either to back the favourite, lay the favourite or just not back/lay at all. This should be fun. I will only be placing £2.11 on either a win or lay bet. I can't paper trade as I have said before. With the win bets I will also include them in my multiple selections so as to try and clear the on going deficit. Don't know when I will clear the singles deficit as I suspect that my lay bets will exceed my win bets. This is because more favourites lose their races whether in handicaps or not.
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6.30 Thirsk Hayadh one point win at 20/1 with Bet365
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43 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
I used to subscribe to the Fineform Weekly News, I was very naïve in those days. Never made any money from it, I think I wrote to him complaining about it and he responded that it was having a temporary bad run but that it would recover, I subscribed for a year and it never did.
I also have one of his books that he used to write each year, this had a system based on trainers but again was never successful.
I think he's dead now sadly.
https://www.gamblingsites.org/biographies/clive-holt/
For anyone interested
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18 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:
He did very well I thought with being boxed in like that. Dettori would have been worried at one point .
He’s going for the Arc , just been confirmed by Gosden
Haha, I'll lay him on that day
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Well, Stradivarious did win but not as good as Ascot. I had a good run for my money though. Well done to Stradivarious, I do hope that the owners and trainers will put up up more competition for the horse in the future, if it is kept in training.
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1.10 Gd Separate one point win at 25/1with Bet365 (hopefully Goodwood will help me to at least get into profit this month)
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One multiple again today' 6 doubles at 80p & 4 trebles at 30p all at Goodwood
1.10 Angel Power 5/2
2.15 Battleground 6/4
3.45 Celsius 11/4
4.20 Alkumait 13/8Poss Returns of £45.47 doubles & £34.45 for the trebles (I'm a sucker for market forces)
However, I do have my head screwed on and here are some win and ew bets
1.10 Gd Separate 50p ew 25/1
1.45 Gd Fifth Position £1 win at 11/2
2.15 Gd Devious Company £1 win at 9/2
2.45 Gd Beat Le Bon 50p ew at 22/1
2.45 Gd Sir Dancealot £1 win at 6/1
3.15 Gd Santiago £1 win at 2/1 (Good to see some competition for Stradivarious for a change; I have had 50p win bets on 4 outsider (won't list here). I would welcome losing £3 to see Stradivarious romp away as it did last time though)
3.45 Gd Final Venture 50p ew 15/2
4.20 Gd Maid Al Arab £1 win at 5/1
4.20 Gd Tawlead 50p ew 10/1
4.55 Gd Chartered 50p ew at 16/1
4.55 Gd Asiaf £1 win at 7/2 (didn't think it warrented a £2 win bet)3.30 Ayr Storm Ahead 50p ew at 28/1 (Very tricky race and wouldn't go overboard on Master The stars when the going is an unknown)
Total Multiples = £6.00
Total singles = £12.00
£18 total for a good afternoon's entertainment
At least I got one double in today Celsius ran no sort of race, how I wished I had chosen Space Blues in the 2.45 instead. Anyway I was awarded the princely sum of £5.51 for my double which meant a 49p loss on the day The balance C/fwd is £646.18 (£800 Bank)
My singles bets were awful today. One place at 10/1 and one non runner. The return was £2.50 hence a £9.50 loss on the day. The balance C/fwd is £344.39 (£400 Bank)
Let's hope I do better tomorrow at Goodwood. One class 2 race at Bangor and two class 3's at Thirsk
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14 hours ago, BillyHills said:
WOW, 40/1 into 3/1
This demonstrates the power of the bookmakers to drastically cut the odds of any horse in any race if there is a whiff of a good run. It also clearly shows that it is absolute lunacy for us punters to take SP
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One multiple today with 4 selections:
2.30 M/R Ballyhome £2 win at 3/1. 10/3 M
4.20 Red Silver Samurai £1 win at 11/4
6.00 Win It's a Given 5/6
6.30 Win Broughton's Gold 2/16x win doubles at 80p = £4.80 poss return £48.66
4 x 30p win trebles = £1.20 poss retunr of £36.90Other bets:
12.20 M/R Dutch admiral £1 win at 9/2
1.55 M/R Valentino Dancer 50p ew at 12/1
4.20 Red Baverdges 50p ew at 10/1
6.00 Win Ice age 50p ew at 8/1
6.30 Win Epsom Faithful 50p ew at 10/1
7.30 Win C'est No Mour 50p ew at 12/1
= £6 stakes on multiples= £9 stakes on win and ew bets
= Total stakes of £15
Good luck every body, I hope that you are all in fine form
Well, at least I made a profit on the day of £1.15. My odds on shot lost and I really fancied Ballyhome to win but that was not to be.
Multiples returne just a win double for £9.00. Less stake £6.00 = a profit of £3.00 The balance C/Fwd is £646.67 (£800 Bank)
The singles didn't pay there way today incurring a £1.85 Loss. The balance C/Fwd is £353.89 (Bank £400)
All the class action is at Goodwood tomorrow with just one class 3 race at Ayr. Let's see how far we get led up the garden path by the media tomorrow?
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7.30 Win C'est No Mour one point win at 12/1 with Bet365 (PL tip so looks like I'm desperate again @BillyHills )
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12 hours ago, Trotter said:
That's a possibility but instinctively I'm not keen
I think if you're using any kind of system or ratings (preferably of course your own ratings!) the idea is to have selections which are automatic depending on the criteria and are not connected to the market or expert opinion, Basically you want to throw up horses that not every one else is considering. So I'm not keen on incorporating website or newspaper tipsters
For the same reason when people do trends I'm not keen on a trend that says something like '12/20 winners were in the first 3 in the market'
I think the purpose of systems/trends is to pick horses that should be in the first 3 but aren't .....
Many thanks for your reply.
I'm not particularly fussed about all this, from what I've seen the all too many sellers of ratings services provide very little to help punters.
I just thought that if one took the top 3/4 selections of a propriety brand of ratings and then awarded and subtracted points in relation to the best recent form, class, going, trainer form, jockey form, course and distance form etc. then one may come up with some sort of better quality selections than puting too much emphasis in favour of the two most recent wins as a criterion.
I am a great believer in taking into account the market's take on the chances of a horse's chance of success as reflected in the prices on offer. There used to be a man who collected all the information about the statistics associated with favourites etc. These showed that there is a great deal of consistency concerning the eventual returned prices and a horse's actual chance of success. It is much easier for me to start with the favoured market leaders and then check whether the factors outlined above favourably or adversely influence a horse's chance of success.
With regard to so called expert opinion, I do take account of this. However, one does need to differentiate between what is relevant and what is just speculation, which, in my opinion, can be very tricky. I much prefer reference to what a horse has recently achieved over such dubious comments such as "took the eye when running recently" or "is bound to improve for the step up in trip" or "last year it did this" etc. I like to stick with what a horse has actually achieved recently. I still get suckered in though as I did yesterday by all the hype. For example "More Beautiful" from Aiden O'Brien's yard was expected to do much better although it flopped big time in its previous race. You guessed it, it just ran true to form and flopped again and finished second to last at 11/8 favourite.
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59 minutes ago, BillyHills said:
Must be getting desperate if you cant pick your own rags
Haha, it was also the selection of Spotlight in the Racing Post. It had a good write up and Sylvestre De Sousa was on board. The only problem appeared to be that the race should have been run over 5 furlongs instead of 7 ☺️
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3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
As the great Nick Mordin would say all systems have a shelf life, the more they are latched on to the more the prices contract, they soon become non profit.
A warm welcome to Punters Lounge.
I still have a Nick Mordin book on my shelf called the winning look
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2 hours ago, Trotter said:
I've posted up some selections on today's racing thread based on the Fineform system with some tweaks to include Class and Going .
A few top rated ones got eliminated for class or going and I stuck to handicaps so that limited the number of selections
Let's see how they get on
ps ....... I don't think we want to start posting selections on this thread otherwise it'll just end up duplicating the daily threads
One problem I did find was that my 'class criteria' seemed a bit too strict as there was at least one top rated horse which had won impressively in a grade lower but looked to be on the upgrade. I basically used 'had to won in this class or placed in a higher class'
I'd like to amend this to take account of horses that have won in the grade below but are lightly raced (maybe 10 or fewer career runs)
I think you have it spot on trotter to post selections on the racing thread. It seems to me that this Fineform method is just a POINTS based system as opposed to a horse rating method as I have come to know it among the all too many ratings systems that seem to be plastered everywhere. You are obviously tweaking it to allow for class of race etc. which is entirely sensible. I am just wondering if you may add to your armoury taking into account the the top 3 Timeform selections as displayed on the ATR website, or at least excluding horses that do not have at least a 3 star rating when one clicks on the "racecard" Timeform tab. It seems to me that this may combine the points system with PROPER race ratings. Just a thought.
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4.15 Asc Sunpower one point win at 18/1 Bet365 (PL tip but e/w)
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One Trixie today and some win/ew bets
1.55 Asc Magic J (£1 win at 2/1)
2.45 Yk Jonah Jones 5/2 ( I hope that @MCLARKE isn't right about Frankie being useless in sprints)
3.40 Asc More Beautiful 6/4 (very strong in the market despite its flop last time)
One £1.50 Trixie = £6 v £79.50Other bets today
2.10 Yk Tintoretto 50p ew at 14/1
2.45 Yk Soldiers Minute 50p ew at 8/1
2.45 Yk Muscika 50p ew at=t 8/1
1.55 Asc Bullet Proof 50p ew at 13/2
2.30 Asc Country £1 win at 9/4
2.30 Asc Almania 50p win at 9/2
2.30 Asc Dash Of Spice 50p win at 8/1
3.05 Asc Agincout £1.50 win at 3/1
3.05 Asc shimmering 50p win at 10/1
3.40 Asc Santosha £1 win 4/1
3.40 Asc Caroline Dale £1 win at 7/2
4.15 Asc Tiger crusade £1 win at 7/4
4.15 Asc Campari £1 win at 10/3
4.15 Asc Sun Power 50p ew at 18/1
3.10 Cart Licklighter £2 win at 7/4Singles stakes = £16
Multiples = £6
Total stakes = £22
Should be a very interesting afternoon if nothing else
3.40 Asc More Beautiful £3.70 at 2.74 = £6.12 poss return
Couldn't resist it to try and get my Trixie money back
Total stakes £25.70
Well, not a total disaster. @MCLARKE was right about Frankie, a complete Jonah in sprints. Luckily I had a little on Musika ew to dull the pain Not one winner in the Trixie and extra win bet of £3.70 on More Beautiful didn't work either. So a whitewash on the multiples and a £6 loss. The balance c/fwd is £643.67 (Bank £800)
The cover bets in my singles worked out quite well though I did incur a small loss of £3.30. this means that the balance C/Fwd is now £355.74 (£400 bank)Looks like tomorrow's fayre is pretty ropey with only two class 3 races. I do drop down to Class 4 on occasions for my multiples but I wouldn't count on it. Roll on Glorious Goodwood
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42 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:
This is what I do. I do the ratings then head over to ATR and look at the race cards where it tells you whether they have won on going or in that class. I now avoid class 5&6 as I don’t think you can trust the horses to produce consistent form. It also narrows down races which is good imo. It’s a cracking system for giving you the basics, and horse racing is still based on the basics. I rated 6 races at York today and 3 won, so 50% strike rate with Fine Form ratings. I just picked the wrong ones to bet on. What I’ve found with Time Form ratings since I’ve been looking into it , is that big odds run well, so definitely don’t be put off by price.
The only confusion I have with your reply is the reference to Time Form ratings. These are surely very different to Fineform Ratings. Incidentally since you look on the ATR website you can get a pretty good idea of the 3 top rated Time Form ratings for free, if you are interested, just by looking at the the Time Form selections and the star ratings. You won't see the squiggles or p's etc though. It looks to me from what Trotter has said that these should be more reliable. However, you should do what you feel is best
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1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:
It’s one of them isn’t it. How many times do us punters kick ourselves. I did put the one in a double with Elarqam, but Elarqam was very disappointing today. The 8/1 I thought had too much to prove in my eyes, so never went with it. I pick out the two horses I really fancy , then will put the other selection(s) in a double. Although quite dated now, Timeform still seems to hold its own. I can’t bet on every race though, so it’s about picking the winners and not the losers.
It occurs to me that it is more difficult to win a double than a single, hence, I would have thought that it may be better to put your more fancied horses in the double. However, since sod's law often prevails as in the case of your 8/1 shot winning, it ,may be prudent to back all your selections in singles as well, even if this means at perhaps reduced stakes so as to maximise your ability to come out unscathed should one of them win. Just a thought.
It would be tough to bet every race, I reckon that if I could do so I would just back PL tips as they show a healthy profit. I just don't know how the negative cash flows would sometimes grow before the profits just ate them up.
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7.00 Don Historic Heart one point win at 25/1 with Betfair
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1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:
The fine form system has picked 2/2 at York so far with one of them an 8/1 winner. I didn’t have it myself as I weren’t confident enough it would handle the up in class, but it won well.
3/3 now
Very interesting' I seem to remember Fineform from years and years ago. You must be kicking yourself for not getting involved in the first three races. I believe that you said in your previous post that you were looking for 4 of the top rated and then backing 2 singles and a double. I presume that you would have been selecting the two that you thought would have the best chance of winning.
I, of course wish you the best of luck in your quest.
I must confess that I cannot get to grips with ratings systems that seem to proliferate the racing world these days. I remember one PL member who seemed to be able to make contrasts between All weather form rating and Turf form ratings. This seemed quite interesting to me.
Anyway, with my limited knowledge on this topic I feel it is quite appropriate to quote from a treasured book that I have by Patrick Kilgallon "How to win at Handicap Racing" actually published by Raceform Ltd in 1990. What he was basically saying was that if you blindly followed the top two of any private handicap system you would be successful 30% of the time. If you want to improve the rate further by taking into account other factors such a weight, distance, current form etc. then you might increase that success rate to around 40% (forgive me for not giving the exact quote as I don't want to breach copyright).
Anyway, the point I am trying to make is that the 8/1 chance that you identified looked like a snip to bet on (however, as always I put the emphasis on money management, especially where staking is concerned).
I am pretty sure that others in Punters Lounge may give some good advice on how to bet using ratings ,top or otherwise .
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Not much time allowed for research today
One Trixie at £1.50 = £6 outlay
2.05 York Award Scheme £2 win at 9/4 (I'm assured by the experts that the horse can defy an 8lbs rise???)
3.00 Asc Tsar £2 at 9/4 - 7/4 for Trixie
5.10 Nm Baasem 7/4 (no win bet; trying a bit of variety on others; see below)one Trixie = poss return of £75.02
Other win bets:
3.00 Asc Dance River £1 win at 17/2
5.10 Nm Charlie D £1 win at 11/2
5.10 Nm Nuits St George £1 win at 5/2 (Needs rain I'm told)Multiples = £6
Singles = £7
= Total £13.
I was to free and easy going on my 50p bets yesterday. I will tighten up on the criterion today. Be back later this afternoon.
I just can't seem to get the 3rd winner for my trixies these days. Anyway I at least got a double which paid £15.84 less £6 = £9.84 profit. The balance c/Fwd on my multiples is now £649.67 (Bank £800).
I had three winners and one non runner on my singles today. The return was £17.25 which meant a £10.25 profit. The Balance C/Fwd is now £359.04 (Bank £400)
Quite a lot of good class racing tomorrow, I hope that I can get around to doing the analysis and having a few bets
GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Hi VC,
Is it possible for you to post up your selections and results under Racing Chat for each day, e.g today's heading was Racing Chat Wednesday 29th July ATR PL forum. Obviously tweaks and and amendments to your system can quite rightly be placed here should you welcome anyone else's comments or opinions