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The Equaliser

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Posts posted by The Equaliser

    Racing Chat - Friday 30th Oct

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    6 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

    All prices Bet365:

    11.55 Wetherby - 1pt e/w One More Fleurie @ 10/1

    Didn't show much on reappearance but may have needed that and it also came in a better race than this. Previously has shown some solid enough form before racing too freely over three miles in the mud at the back end of last year. With fitness on side and the drop back in trip a potential positive around here, can see a better effort this afternoon off a decent mark.

    12.35 Newmarket - 2pts win Alanmar @ 5/1

    Has a good pedigree and is related to 5 decent winners with the majority scoring either on their first or second start so this one is likely to be forward and William Haggas' are usually good to go on debut. Has plenty of soft ground horses in its pedigree too so lots to like on debut here at a backable price.

    12.50 Uttoxeter - 1pt e/w Everything Now @ 28/1

    The favourite is the likely winner if good to go but I think Everything Now has sound each-way hopes here. Was green on debut in a bumper but shaped well at a big price after a long absence last time out over hurdles, finishing midfield but not beaten a million miles considering it was his debut over jumps after a long absence. Also will certainly want further than two miles and this extra half mile will suit. He's a half brother to three jumpers all rated 20-30lbs higher than him so definite scope for improvement and his relatives stay so two miles was never likely to suit.

    2.10 Wetherby - 1pt e/w Louis Vac Pouch @ 10/1

    Bit in an out in his career to date but showed some good novice chase form and also ran well in a big handicap chase at the Cheltenham festival earlier in the year too. Much of his racing has come over shorter than ideal or in novice races against good horses so I think there's some scope off this mark in a handicap with conditions in his favour. Jumping will need to hold up but has the benefit of a recent run and that could help him against some types returning from absences today. 

    2.55 Newmarket - 2pts win Hawridge Flyer @ 7/1

    Runs this track well and runs off the same mark as when fighting out the finish with Berrahri here a few starts back. The pair were 7 lengths clear and this one has had excuses since - running in a hot race here on good ground and then hampered over a shorter than ideal 1m2f trip last time out. Returns to ideal conditions in terms of track, trip and ground now and looks to hold a real chance this afternoon.

    3.30 Newmarket - 2pts win Awake My Soul @ 9/2

    Is getting on a bit now but still in good heart and the race wasn't quite ideal at Pontefract last time. Got outpaced on the home turn as can happen there and those in front tend to get away from you, as they did that day. This long straight should play more to his strengths and he's clearly still in decent form so in a winnable race looks worthy of a bet.

    Well done on Awake My Soul, the outsider

     

    Racing Chat - Wednesday 28th October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by The Equaliser
    Results Update

    Gone for some singles today

    1.15 Nott Sword Beach (JF 10%) £1 win at 7/1 : fancied runners up in class

    1.50 Nott Bedford Flyer (WB 21%) £2 win at 10/3 = £8.67

    2.20 Nott Helvetian (WB 21%) £1 win at 13/2 = £7.50

    2.50 Nott Multellie (EMc 7lbs recent winner) £1 win at 9/1

    3.20 Nott Tinnahalla (WB 21%) £2 win at 7/2
    3.20 Nott Little Tipsy (JM 17%) 30p win at 80/1

    3.50 Nott Thorntoun Care (Ms A C 5lbs claimer) £1 win at 7/1

    3.50 Nott Champaign Castle (SB) 30p win at 28/1

    4.20Nott N Over J (SB) £1 win at 14/1

    = £9.60 total singles stakes

    Hopefully back later for Kempton selections

    =============================================================================================================

    None of my selections won today so a £9.60 loss on the day.  This brings my balance to £155.39 (£400 Bank)

    I need to spend more time with my lay betting strategy so I will probably only post up a £1 Trixie with three £2 win bets from tomorrow.  May include the odd outsiders for very small stake money though

     

     

     

    Racing Chat - Wednesday 28th October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

    150 nott

    Tricky little nursery .....only 6 runners but faustus ran really well on soft last time and looks really  fairly treated for his hcap debut based on that ....I'll play ew 

    Faustus 10pt ew 17/2 willh 2 places 

    Effectively 5lbs worse off because it had a very good claimer on board last time.  What do I know; I'm going for Bedford Flyer with William Buick aboard.  Good luck though

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 27th October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by The Equaliser
    Results Update

    One Trixie today

    1.40 Catt Rich Belief (KS) 13/8
    3.15 Catt Redrosezorro (JH) £2 win at 7/2
    4.25 Catt Carlovian (JH) £2 win at 4/1

    One £1 win trixie = £4 v poss return of £106.49

    Other bets:

    12.40 Catt Miss Nay Never (JH) £2 win at 10/3 = £8.66 Has a 5lb pull with the favourite

    1.10 Catt The Golden Cue (JH) £1 win at 12/1

    1.40 Catt Seguauter (DT) £1 win at 6/1

    2.10 Catt Ey Up Its Mick £2 win at 11/2 ( I think it will beat Hollie Doyle's horse)

    3.15 catt Lucky Lucky Man (BMc) £1 win at 10/1

    3.50 Catt Lara silver (DT) £1 win at 5/1
    3.50 Catt B Fifty Two £1 win at 17/2 (Sentimental reason)

    4.25 Catt God Of Dreams £1 win at 10/3 (Ins bet)

    Total multiples = £4

    Total singles = £14

    Total stakes = £18

    Back later with Southwell bets

    Good luck to all today

    ===========================================================================================

    Let down once again by the fancied horses, don't know why I bother.  Anyway three winners at good prices meant a decent return of £25,50 v stakes of £14 = £11.50 profit on the day.  The singles balance c/fwd is now ££164.99 (£400 Bank)

    The multiples lost £4 so the balance now c/fwd is £626.69 (Bank £800)

    Two meetings over the jumps tomorrow in the UK, one on the flat and one on the all weather.  I will focus on the flat meeting and the all weather meeting; don't think I will get around to the jump meetings, four meetings too much for me.

    Nighty night, don't let the bed bugs bite

     

     

     

     

     

    Racing chat - Monday 26th October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by The Equaliser
    Results Update

    1.15 Red Turn On The Charm (OM) £2 win at 3.10 = £4.12.  Looks like Oisin Murphy's best ride of the day.

    Back later to look at James Doyle and William Buick's rides at Newcastle

    Not sure if I will get time to look at Brian Hughes' rides at Ayr as lunch will get in my way

    ==================================================================================================

    Well the market didn't like this one; around evens when I backed it and out to 85/40 favourite.  To be honest I didn't like the winner that Oisin got called There's No Danger; however, it was backed into 11/8 favourite from around 3/1.  The market ruled today.  Very interesting

    Two meetings over the jumps tomorrow, one flat and one all weather.  I am trying to organise some sort of cross referencing with my top jockeys whilst at the same time seeking to identify what I believe to be the jockey's best chance of a race win on the day. No less than 9 experts seemed to think that Turn On The Charm would be a great ride for Oisin Murphy, how wrong they were! Are we all being duped?

    A £2 loss means a singles balance c/fwd of £153.49 (Bank £400)   

     

    Racing Chat - Sunday 25th October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by The Equaliser
    Results Update

    I will post up what I feel to be a good bet with my top and in form jockeys and apprentices and restrict my selections to what I believe is an edge in respect of them.

    I missed out on Venturious yesterday with Ray Dawson 16/1 to 6/1 ( I didn't know that the prices of T D Barron horses with a good chance got slashed so much. If anyone knows how how I can get a list if gambling stables I will be grateful)?

    Anyway, one horse I noticed last night is running in the 3.42 at Aintree today.  It is Clever As A Fox.  This is ridden by Cillin Leonard a 7lbs claimer with a strike rate of 4/12 = 33%.  It is trained by Dr Richard Newland.  It is usually ridden by Sam Twiston Davies so the Doc obviously feels it has  better chance with 7lbs of its back.  I have backed it at 13/2 but see that Bet 365 is now offering 7/1

    Poss back later

    3.27 Win Especially So (AH 15/72 21% S/R) 33/1 looks worth a punt.  May have a cover bet on the favourite.  Put £1.67 on so will seek to recover this amount

    ============================================================================================================

    Haha, the first one finished last and the second one 2nd to last.  What I didn't notice in the 3.42 at Aintree was that Paddy Brennan was riding for a different trainer to Fergal O'Brien.  That horse was of course Jacamar and won the race at 6/1.

    No multiples today so a net singles loss (after my insurance bet on Oscars Moonshine was a loss of £1.56.  My balance c/fwd is now £155.49 (Bank £400)

    Two flat meetings tomorrow (not sure if Leicester will go ahead as the going is already heavy), one over the jumps and on All Weather.  Let's see if I can find any gems from these meetings (hopefully, unlike today).

     

       

     

    Racing Chat - Saturday 24th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by The Equaliser
    Results Update

    Some singles bets today

    3.30 Don Grantly (RD5) £1 win at 14/1

    3.35 Nb Existent (CF) £2 win at 5/1
    3.35 Nb Laneqash (JC) £1 win at 2/1 Insurance bet

    4.10 Nb Away He Goes (JC) £2 win at 5/1

    4.40 Don Right Action (PH) £1 win at 10/1

    4.45 Nb Lunar Jet (CF) £1 win at 16/1

    5.10 Don Capla Berry (WB) £2 win at 6.6 = £10.98

    5.20 Nb Percy Proseco (N/A) £1 win at 13/2

    Total stakes = £11

    No Trixie today

    I missed the price on Ray Dawson's winner earlier and foolishly backed against it.

    I couldn't resist laying Pileon in running at odds of 3.85 (Liabilty = £58.37) after the horse made a very bad mistake.  I normally only lay at 1.95 but I didn't think the horse would recover.  At least this gave me £20 to play with for today

    =========================================================================================================

    Well at least Lunar Jet won for me producing a return of £17.00 with Cieron Fallon aboard.  This amounted to a net profit of £6.00 on the day.

    The singles balance c/fwd is now £157.05 (Bank £400.00)

    All jumps racing in the UK tomorrow.  I haven't quite got it right yet with my in form top jockey's and apprentices strategy but I am working on it including the jumps with conditional jockeys.  Bear with me ?

     

     

     

     

    Racing Chat - Saturday 24th September

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    46 minutes ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

    All prices Bet365:
     

    1.10 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Dash of Spice @ 11/1

    Was off a higher mark than this a few years ago and took a couple of runs to get going after two years off the track. Had excuses over 1m6f and then was too close to a hot pace behind Laafy at Ascot recently. Put in a poor run last time but is the type to bounce back and conditions suit so can see a good run today.

    2.05 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Botox Has @ 13/2

    Wasn't far behind Allmankind when they met here last season and there looks quite a lot of pace in here which can suit Botox Has who stays strongly and will relish a test today. Has form up there with the best here and at 13/2, so long as he's fit enough, really should make the frame and threaten the win.

    3.15 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Minella Warrior @ 22/1

    Hasn't worked out for him over fences - he's not the best jumper, quite slow and uses energy to get over his flights and I think it's the right move bringing him back to hurdles. Was in good form in staying hurdle races when last running in this sphere and it wouldn't surprise me to see a big improvement now with a stamina test to suit. 

    3.35 Newbury - 1pt e/w Percy's Lad @ 14/1

    Was impressive on debut given Eve Johnson-Haughton's runners typically come on plenty and there's substance to both that form and its win in a muddling affair last time, doing well to win from two solid yardsticks. Soft ground shouldn't inconvenience and a better gallop to aim at here (stays further) can see a big run. 

    3.50 Cheltenham - 1pt win West Approach @ 7/1

    Often saves his best for Cheltenham and also has a good record fresh which bodes well for today's reappearance. Had an off day when last seen, never really travelling, but is the type to bounce back with conditions to suit having been freshened up and has been rated higher in the past.

    4.05 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Firmament @ 16/1

    Looks a big price to me as a flat track suits and is only a pound higher than when winning at York earlier in the season. Has been running okay lately but over a mile when 7f is his trip and the drop back to this distance today will definitely help. Can see him running his race and getting involved at the finish at a big price.

    Many thanks for your analysis; not going for RIght Action in the 4.40 at Donny this time?

     

    Racing Chat- Wednesday 21st October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by The Equaliser
    Results Update

    A few singles bets so far:

    2.10 Nm Harlem Soul (WB) £2 win at 5.8 = £9.41

    3.20 Nm Sunset Kiss (RD5) £2 win at 6/1 = £14.00

    4.10 Km King Of Spies (JS) £1.20 win at 8/1 = £10.85

    A few dollars more:

    4.40 Km Peerless (OM) £2 win at 5/2 = £7.00

    5.15 Km Subtle Beauty (SL) £1.20 win at 7/1 = £9.60
    5.15 Km Belle Rouge (BC) 30p win at 40/1 = £12.36)

    7.45 Km Johnny Reb (JD) £2 win at 5/2 = £7.00
    7.45 Km Limaro Prospect (LM) 45p win at 20/1

    8.15 Km Passional £1.20 win at 6/1

    Total singles stakes = £12.35

    ========================================================================================================

    Just one winner today that returned £7.00. The outlay was £12.25 so a net loss of £5.35. The balance is now £151.05 (Bank £400)

    Five UK meetings tomorrow; Two All Weather and three over the jumps.  The bookies relentlessly keep serving up the betting opportunities; let's hope that some of us can make a profit ?

     

    Racing Chat- Monday 19th October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by The Equaliser
    Results Update

    Got a feeling I should have focussed on Windsor instead of Pontefract.  Never mind I can come back later

    Just some single win bets today, so far at least.  NB last night's best prices shown after jockeys initials 

    1.45 Pont Naamoos (JF/MJ) 3/1, £2 win at 6 = £9.80 (has a strong favourite to beat.  Scary

    2.50 Pont Cruyff Turn (DT) 2/1, £2 win at 4.2 (um at 3.75)

    3.20 Pont Inexes (JH) 6/1, £1.87 at 12 = £20.16

    3.50 Pont Case Key (PM) 9/2, £1.20 win at 11/2 = £7.80

    4.20 Pont Jill Rose (HT) 9/2, £1.20 win at 7/1 = £9.60

    2.30 Win Tenfold (OM) 6/1, £1.20 win at 8/1

    Total stakes £9.47 (if Cruyff Turn gets matched which is looking more unlikely atm)

    ===============================================================================================

    Cruyff Turn did get matched and duly lost.  Amounts to a £9.47 loss on the day.  The balance c/fwd is now £156.40 (£400 bank)

    Terrible run of results.  Th only thing keeping me in profit at the moment are my in-running lay bets on the Betfair Exchange.  It's a pity that I can't share them as even I don't know which ones that they will be until a race is off and getting to the business end.  I do have some rules for them but hardly enough to put forward a proven winning strategy as it's still early days with it.

    One flat meeting, two all weather and one over the jumps in the UK tomorrow.  I have to go out quite early in the morning tomorrow and won't be back until after lunch so I guess everyone will have to wait for my losing selections until later on ?

     

     

    Racing Chat - Sunday 18th October

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by The Equaliser
    Results Update

    Just a few today so far.  I am focussing on getting better prices than at the overnight stage with the jockeys today

    1.00 Ffos Hang Tough (Jjo) £1.20 win at 15/2 (11/2)
    1.00 Ffos Out The Glen (PB) 70p win at 10/1(7/1)

    1.45 Km Admirals Sunset £2 win at 4/1 (7/2)

    2.57 Km Leapaway (ToBx) £1.20 win at 11/2 (9/2)

    3.25 Sed Shantaluze (BH) £1.20 win at 8/1 (6/1)

    No Tixie at these prices

    Total stakes = £6.30

    WHERE ARE THE FUTURE GURU'S TIPS TODAY, DON'T THEY KNOW THAT THE JUMPS SEASON IS UPON US, HAHA

    ==========================================================================================

    One second at 14/1 but no good for me.  A loss of £6.30 today.  The balance c/fwd is now £112.07 (Bank £400).  I have no idea how this balance has dropped so low.  Good job my shoulders are broad.

    No multiples today 

    Four meetings tomorrow, two flat, one all weather and one over the jumps; plenty to look at.

     

     

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