The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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One Trixie today
1.40 Catt Rich Belief (KS) 13/8
3.15 Catt Redrosezorro (JH) £2 win at 7/2
4.25 Catt Carlovian (JH) £2 win at 4/1One £1 win trixie = £4 v poss return of £106.49
Other bets:
12.40 Catt Miss Nay Never (JH) £2 win at 10/3 = £8.66 Has a 5lb pull with the favourite
1.10 Catt The Golden Cue (JH) £1 win at 12/1
1.40 Catt Seguauter (DT) £1 win at 6/1
2.10 Catt Ey Up Its Mick £2 win at 11/2 ( I think it will beat Hollie Doyle's horse)
3.15 catt Lucky Lucky Man (BMc) £1 win at 10/1
3.50 Catt Lara silver (DT) £1 win at 5/1
3.50 Catt B Fifty Two £1 win at 17/2 (Sentimental reason)4.25 Catt God Of Dreams £1 win at 10/3 (Ins bet)
Total multiples = £4
Total singles = £14
Total stakes = £18
Back later with Southwell bets
Good luck to all today
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Let down once again by the fancied horses, don't know why I bother. Anyway three winners at good prices meant a decent return of £25,50 v stakes of £14 = £11.50 profit on the day. The singles balance c/fwd is now ££164.99 (£400 Bank)
The multiples lost £4 so the balance now c/fwd is £626.69 (Bank £800)
Two meetings over the jumps tomorrow in the UK, one on the flat and one on the all weather. I will focus on the flat meeting and the all weather meeting; don't think I will get around to the jump meetings, four meetings too much for me.
Nighty night, don't let the bed bugs bite
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11 hours ago, Fader said:
Sunday Oct 25th table :
Very well done in catching up Fader ?. Will you be also be able to calculate the most number of winners table this month too?
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6.00 Nc Glory Of Paris (KS) one point win at 22/1 with Bet365
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1.15 Red Turn On The Charm (OM) £2 win at 3.10 = £4.12. Looks like Oisin Murphy's best ride of the day.
Back later to look at James Doyle and William Buick's rides at Newcastle
Not sure if I will get time to look at Brian Hughes' rides at Ayr as lunch will get in my way
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Well the market didn't like this one; around evens when I backed it and out to 85/40 favourite. To be honest I didn't like the winner that Oisin got called There's No Danger; however, it was backed into 11/8 favourite from around 3/1. The market ruled today. Very interesting
Two meetings over the jumps tomorrow, one flat and one all weather. I am trying to organise some sort of cross referencing with my top jockeys whilst at the same time seeking to identify what I believe to be the jockey's best chance of a race win on the day. No less than 9 experts seemed to think that Turn On The Charm would be a great ride for Oisin Murphy, how wrong they were! Are we all being duped?
A £2 loss means a singles balance c/fwd of £153.49 (Bank £400)
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3.27 Win Especially So one point win at 33/1 with Bet365
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I will post up what I feel to be a good bet with my top and in form jockeys and apprentices and restrict my selections to what I believe is an edge in respect of them.
I missed out on Venturious yesterday with Ray Dawson 16/1 to 6/1 ( I didn't know that the prices of T D Barron horses with a good chance got slashed so much. If anyone knows how how I can get a list if gambling stables I will be grateful)?
Anyway, one horse I noticed last night is running in the 3.42 at Aintree today. It is Clever As A Fox. This is ridden by Cillin Leonard a 7lbs claimer with a strike rate of 4/12 = 33%. It is trained by Dr Richard Newland. It is usually ridden by Sam Twiston Davies so the Doc obviously feels it has better chance with 7lbs of its back. I have backed it at 13/2 but see that Bet 365 is now offering 7/1
Poss back later
3.27 Win Especially So (AH 15/72 21% S/R) 33/1 looks worth a punt. May have a cover bet on the favourite. Put £1.67 on so will seek to recover this amount
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Haha, the first one finished last and the second one 2nd to last. What I didn't notice in the 3.42 at Aintree was that Paddy Brennan was riding for a different trainer to Fergal O'Brien. That horse was of course Jacamar and won the race at 6/1.
No multiples today so a net singles loss (after my insurance bet on Oscars Moonshine was a loss of £1.56. My balance c/fwd is now £155.49 (Bank £400)
Two flat meetings tomorrow (not sure if Leicester will go ahead as the going is already heavy), one over the jumps and on All Weather. Let's see if I can find any gems from these meetings (hopefully, unlike today).
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Some singles bets today
3.30 Don Grantly (RD5) £1 win at 14/1
3.35 Nb Existent (CF) £2 win at 5/1
3.35 Nb Laneqash (JC) £1 win at 2/1 Insurance bet4.10 Nb Away He Goes (JC) £2 win at 5/1
4.40 Don Right Action (PH) £1 win at 10/1
4.45 Nb Lunar Jet (CF) £1 win at 16/1
5.10 Don Capla Berry (WB) £2 win at 6.6 = £10.98
5.20 Nb Percy Proseco (N/A) £1 win at 13/2
Total stakes = £11
No Trixie today
I missed the price on Ray Dawson's winner earlier and foolishly backed against it.
I couldn't resist laying Pileon in running at odds of 3.85 (Liabilty = £58.37) after the horse made a very bad mistake. I normally only lay at 1.95 but I didn't think the horse would recover. At least this gave me £20 to play with for today
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Well at least Lunar Jet won for me producing a return of £17.00 with Cieron Fallon aboard. This amounted to a net profit of £6.00 on the day.
The singles balance c/fwd is now £157.05 (Bank £400.00)
All jumps racing in the UK tomorrow. I haven't quite got it right yet with my in form top jockey's and apprentices strategy but I am working on it including the jumps with conditional jockeys. Bear with me ?
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46 minutes ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:
All prices Bet365:
1.10 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Dash of Spice @ 11/1
Was off a higher mark than this a few years ago and took a couple of runs to get going after two years off the track. Had excuses over 1m6f and then was too close to a hot pace behind Laafy at Ascot recently. Put in a poor run last time but is the type to bounce back and conditions suit so can see a good run today.
2.05 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Botox Has @ 13/2
Wasn't far behind Allmankind when they met here last season and there looks quite a lot of pace in here which can suit Botox Has who stays strongly and will relish a test today. Has form up there with the best here and at 13/2, so long as he's fit enough, really should make the frame and threaten the win.
3.15 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Minella Warrior @ 22/1
Hasn't worked out for him over fences - he's not the best jumper, quite slow and uses energy to get over his flights and I think it's the right move bringing him back to hurdles. Was in good form in staying hurdle races when last running in this sphere and it wouldn't surprise me to see a big improvement now with a stamina test to suit.
3.35 Newbury - 1pt e/w Percy's Lad @ 14/1
Was impressive on debut given Eve Johnson-Haughton's runners typically come on plenty and there's substance to both that form and its win in a muddling affair last time, doing well to win from two solid yardsticks. Soft ground shouldn't inconvenience and a better gallop to aim at here (stays further) can see a big run.
3.50 Cheltenham - 1pt win West Approach @ 7/1
Often saves his best for Cheltenham and also has a good record fresh which bodes well for today's reappearance. Had an off day when last seen, never really travelling, but is the type to bounce back with conditions to suit having been freshened up and has been rated higher in the past.
4.05 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Firmament @ 16/1
Looks a big price to me as a flat track suits and is only a pound higher than when winning at York earlier in the season. Has been running okay lately but over a mile when 7f is his trip and the drop back to this distance today will definitely help. Can see him running his race and getting involved at the finish at a big price.
Many thanks for your analysis; not going for RIght Action in the 4.40 at Donny this time?
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I counted 438 runners over the 5 meetings today in the UK.
I think I'll stick with my in-running lay bets today
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5.15 Km Belle Rouge (BC) one point win at 40/1 with Bet365
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A few singles bets so far:
2.10 Nm Harlem Soul (WB) £2 win at 5.8 = £9.41
3.20 Nm Sunset Kiss (RD5) £2 win at 6/1 = £14.00
4.10 Km King Of Spies (JS) £1.20 win at 8/1 = £10.85
A few dollars more:
4.40 Km Peerless (OM) £2 win at 5/2 = £7.00
5.15 Km Subtle Beauty (SL) £1.20 win at 7/1 = £9.60
5.15 Km Belle Rouge (BC) 30p win at 40/1 = £12.36)7.45 Km Johnny Reb (JD) £2 win at 5/2 = £7.00
7.45 Km Limaro Prospect (LM) 45p win at 20/18.15 Km Passional £1.20 win at 6/1
Total singles stakes = £12.35
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Just one winner today that returned £7.00. The outlay was £12.25 so a net loss of £5.35. The balance is now £151.05 (Bank £400)
Five UK meetings tomorrow; Two All Weather and three over the jumps. The bookies relentlessly keep serving up the betting opportunities; let's hope that some of us can make a profit ?
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2.25 NC Quest For Fun (KS) one point win at 80/1 with Betfair
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5.00 Wolv Luscifer one point win at 18/1 with Bet 365
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Got a feeling I should have focussed on Windsor instead of Pontefract. Never mind I can come back later
Just some single win bets today, so far at least. NB last night's best prices shown after jockeys initials
1.45 Pont Naamoos (JF/MJ) 3/1, £2 win at 6 = £9.80 (has a strong favourite to beat. Scary
2.50 Pont Cruyff Turn (DT) 2/1, £2 win at 4.2 (um at 3.75)
3.20 Pont Inexes (JH) 6/1, £1.87 at 12 = £20.16
3.50 Pont Case Key (PM) 9/2, £1.20 win at 11/2 = £7.80
4.20 Pont Jill Rose (HT) 9/2, £1.20 win at 7/1 = £9.60
2.30 Win Tenfold (OM) 6/1, £1.20 win at 8/1
Total stakes £9.47 (if Cruyff Turn gets matched which is looking more unlikely atm)
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Cruyff Turn did get matched and duly lost. Amounts to a £9.47 loss on the day. The balance c/fwd is now £156.40 (£400 bank)
Terrible run of results. Th only thing keeping me in profit at the moment are my in-running lay bets on the Betfair Exchange. It's a pity that I can't share them as even I don't know which ones that they will be until a race is off and getting to the business end. I do have some rules for them but hardly enough to put forward a proven winning strategy as it's still early days with it.
One flat meeting, two all weather and one over the jumps in the UK tomorrow. I have to go out quite early in the morning tomorrow and won't be back until after lunch so I guess everyone will have to wait for my losing selections until later on ?
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43 minutes ago, andypandy23 said:
Yeah it is. I'm leaving.
To err is human but edit devine; you need to give the PL a little time to settle down mate
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Just a few today so far. I am focussing on getting better prices than at the overnight stage with the jockeys today
1.00 Ffos Hang Tough (Jjo) £1.20 win at 15/2 (11/2)
1.00 Ffos Out The Glen (PB) 70p win at 10/1(7/1)1.45 Km Admirals Sunset £2 win at 4/1 (7/2)
2.57 Km Leapaway (ToBx) £1.20 win at 11/2 (9/2)
3.25 Sed Shantaluze (BH) £1.20 win at 8/1 (6/1)
No Tixie at these prices
Total stakes = £6.30
WHERE ARE THE FUTURE GURU'S TIPS TODAY, DON'T THEY KNOW THAT THE JUMPS SEASON IS UPON US, HAHA
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One second at 14/1 but no good for me. A loss of £6.30 today. The balance c/fwd is now £112.07 (Bank £400). I have no idea how this balance has dropped so low. Good job my shoulders are broad.
No multiples today
Four meetings tomorrow, two flat, one all weather and one over the jumps; plenty to look at.
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1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:
I did my bit hopefully with a 11/1 winner, a 2nd at 50/1 and a 3rd at 40/1. Profit for the day of over £200 to £10 each way stakes.
Very well done M
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3 hours ago, LeMale said:
Job applicants??? Mind you, fantastic write-up's! What i can't bloody believe is, this has got to be the first time in 4-5 months that i didn't use my morning looking on here!!! Typical!!!
Well good luck to all of them; it will be nice if we get some highlighted winners too ?
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One Trixie today
2.30 Asc Wonderful Tonight (WB) £1 win at 5/1
3.28 Str Pogo I Am (BC5) £2 win at 11/4
4.03 Str Blue N Yellow £1 win at 4/1
One £1 Trixie = £4 v poss return of £183.75Other bets:
1.20 Asc Search For A Song £1 win at 6/1
1.55 Asc Oxted £1.20 win at 15/2
1.55 Asc Dream Of Dreams 70p win at 3/12.30 Asc Mehdaayih £1 win at 7/1
3.40 Asc Mishriff £1 win at 5/1
4.15 Asc Alternative Fact 55p win at 10/1
4.15 Asc Blue Mist 45p win at 25/11.13 Stra Felton Bellevue 45p win at 20/1
2.15 Str Test Valley 30p win at 33/1
4.40 Str Baratineu £1.20 win at 9/2
4.40 Str Catlow 30p win at 9/2 (fancied it at 10's but hacked into too much for my liking so just an ins bet)= £4 Multiples
= £9.15 singles
= Total £13.15
Should be fun to watch. Good luck to everyone today. Despite backing against Stradivarious I would love to see it win impressively today ?
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Just one winner today and that was down to William Buick. I noticed that the jockeys with the greatest strike rates seemed to have money pouring on their horses; not that they won but I guess that they were expected to run very well if not win.
Anyway, multiples - £4 therefore the balance c.fwd is now £630.69 (£800 Bank)
Singles was - £9.15 outlay and £6 return so a loss of £3.15. My balance is now £172.17 (Bank £400)
Three jumps meetings tomorrow in the UK so let's see how our woulb be racing guru's handle that?
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11 hours ago, Simmoform said:
Ascot finish their 2020 flat season with the 10th Champions Day which will be run on testing soft ground with the likes of Stradivarius, Magical and Palace Pier looking to end their term with victories.
Hollie Doyle has had a sensational season breaking her own yearly winner total earlier in the week with 117 winners so far. She has a big chance of securing her first Group 1 success with DAME MALLIOT (2.30 Ascot). Hollie won on her at Newmarket in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales Stakes back in July and was a highly credible 3rd in the Prix Vermeille on Arc trials day. Behind her that day were rivals Wonderful Tonight, Laburnam and Even So and she can confirm the form. It will be an emotional win not only for Hollie but as trainer Ed Vaughan is leaving the training ranks for financial reasons and ironically the first prize here of just short of £200k would be his biggest win.
Yorkshire trainer David O’Meara has an excellent record in the Balmoral handicap (4.15) having won it twice and had two placed in the eight runners he’s saddled in the prestigious handicap’s 6 year history so his two runners are of significance this year. The one I’m most interested in is ORBAAN who will be ridden by stable jockey Daniel Tudhope and is only 3lb higher than his York win in July. An ex Andre Fabre inmate he’ll have no problem with the soft ground and looks the best value in a race full of dangers headed by the pair of improving 3 year olds Raaeq and Tempus who head the market. Last year’s winner O’Meara’s Escobar was drawn 20 (although they did race on the inside track then) so I’m hopeful that Orbaan’s stall number 20 will be ideal.
The National Hunt season is becoming more interesting by the day and the best bet over the sticks is Nigel Twiston Davies’ TEMPLEHILLS (2.53 Stratford) who looks thrown in off of only 120 (113 if taking the more than capable Jack Savage’s claim into account). He was a smart chaser for Twiston Davies two seasons back winning at Warwick off of 137 and at one stage being as highly rated as 144. Having lost his form he was acquired by Jonjo O’Neil and showed little for him in four runs the following season before re-joining his former trainer off of a very winnable mark. He’s won after a break and should be ready to fire today. This doesn’t look the strongest of handicap chases with Frankly Du Berlais winning over hurdles last time and the biggest threat possibly coming from Keiran Burke’s Everlanes who was progressive last season and his trainer has been amongst the winners recently
Welcome to Punters lounge, we seem to be getting lots of new talent recently
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21 hours ago, Tumbleweed King said:
2-30 Ascot WONDERFUL TONIGHT
This three-year-old daughter of Le Havre is extremely lightly raced. She has talent in abundance though and a fortnight ago, she made just about all to win the Qatar Prix De Royallieu at Paris Longchamp in testing conditions. She looks all set to encounter similar ground here this afternoon and with trainer David Menusier in excellent form she commands utmost respect. Will Buick takes over in the saddle and given that she has won over longer trips, he will likely make the most of her proven stamina. Wonderful Tonight is set to receive seven pounds from her male counterparts including Antonio De Vega and and Dame Mallot. Every single pound will count on ground this soft and if finding for pressure, she may well be able to grind them into submission. Many of her own sex who line up here are woefully out of form. She still has further improvement to come and she has to be high on any shortlist.
3-40 Ascot ADDEYBB
A globetrotting winning machine is the best way to describe the William Haggas trained six-year-old. This ten furlong trip certainly brings out the best in him and with three wins from four starts under his belt this year, he is remarkably consistent. Two of those victories came out in Australia in the spring where he picked up wins in the Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill before also scoring at Randwick in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He returned to the UK in time for Royal Ascot and following his exertions abroad, he found only one too strong in Lord North. Given that he probably needed to reacclimatise, that effort had to be marked up. That proved to be the case when on his subsequent start he lined up for the Doonside Cup at Ayr. Despite coming under strong pressure a couple of furlongs out, he fought back bravely and got the better of Lord Glitters by just under a length. The form of that race has already been well advertised at the fourth placed Euchen Glen has come out to win subsequently. Tom Marquand has built up an excellent relationship with this son of Pivotal and they have to rate as massive dangers to all. He has been given a two month break to prepare for this and his trainer can reap the rewards.
4-15 Ascot KEATS
Last seen out just over a fortnight ago, Keats was given a positive ride by Seamie Heffernan in a listed race at Cork. He came under a drive a couple of furlongs from home but the son of Galileo found plenty for pressure. He readily swept to the front to beat Free Solo by a little over a length. He looks to be another that is improving just at the right time and may be able to take full advantage of many rivals who have just not shown their true form this season. With the ground likely to be just as he likes it and now with Ryan Moore on board, the pair can end the season on a high for all at Ballydoyle.
Welcome to punters lounge, may I wish you much success with your tipping
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I have placed a few bets.
12.40 Hd Cuban Breeze (RK) £2.00 @ 4.10 = £6.08 (Looks like a cert on paper but I've been let down before)
2.35 Red Real Smooth (RD5) £2 win at 11/2
3.05 Red Chaplin Bay (JH) 45p win at 25/1
3.05 Red B Fifty Two (JE) 45p win at 28/14.05 Red Rainbow Mirage (CF) 45p win at 20/1
5.05 Red Bawaader (A Mc) 70p win at 10/1
I will be back later to look at William Buick's rides at Newcastle (too many hot jockeys there so I'll stick with him as his overall strike rate is the best)
Total stakes = £6.05
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A blank day on the singles, so a loss of £6.05 The balance c/fwd is now £175.32 (Bank £400)
William Buick only had one winner at Newcastle so a little uninspiring.
Ascot later with Stradivarious out for compensation; not sure I want to oppose it.
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14 hours ago, John W said:
Hey guys new here nice to meet you all and also nice to be involved.
Haydock 1.45 COMMANCHE FALLS 9/2 betfair, career best last time and a repeat of that here on ground he handles will see him competitive.
Uttoxeter 2.23 AS I SEE IT(ew) 12/1 bet365, nice to see this one back over hurdles this season after uninspiring tries over fences. This race could see a bounce back to form.
Welcome to Punters Lounge, I hope that you enjoy your stay with us. Good luck with your tips.
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One Trixie today:
4.30 Win Captain Tommy (BF) £3 win at 9/4
4.50 Lin Veleta (AK) £2 win at 9/2 Trixie = 5/1
6.30 Chelm Sideral (OM) £2 win at 4.6= £7.06, 5/2 Trixie
£1 win Trixie = £4 = Poss return of £120.12Other bets:
3.55 Win Chantecler (NdB) £1.20 win at 7/1 = £9.60
8.00 Chelm Tie A Yellow Ribbon (RD5) £1.38 win at 14.5 = £18.26
8.30 Chelm Zhikovsky (RD5) £1.20 win at 13/2 = £9.00
Total multiples = £4.00
Total singles = £10.78
Total stakes £14.78
Happy punting everyone
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Had to wait until the 8.00 chelm for a winner. Returned £17.58 + £1.20 N/R = £18.78, therefore £8 profit on singles. Bal c/fwd = £181.37 (Bank £400)
A loss of £4 on the multiples means a c/fwd balance of £634.69
Five UK meetings tomorrow so a lot to look at
Naps - Wednesday 28th October
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
I love the way you keep going with long shots even though way ahead of everyone else this month. Possibly you could aim to get the most profit since 2016 tables began? Different tactics though apply to the KO Cup in my opinion. Good luck