The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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12.58 Ffos No bet for me in this race as Sandymount Road is 10/11. The horse has seconditis and the pundits are worried about the drop in distance. I am not so concerned about that as I feel it will be OK at 2 miles. I don't believe the hype about Windswept Girl either. The mare has to prove herself
3.15 Sou I have had £2 to win on Susie Javea at 9.2 = poss profit of £16.07. The best price about Momtalk is now 4/5. On paper at least Zahirah should beat it because of Miomtalk's penalty. The only problem is that this mare ran a strange race last time. Anyway it could improve for the run and turn the tables so I'll take my chances that Susie Javea could improve and win
3.58 Ffos. The market has gone for Onethreefivenotout. Paul Nichols doesn't have a staggering record in bumpers at the track so I have had a £2 win bet at 6.00 with Avietosea and £2 win at 7.00 with Super Six. Both penalised for their wins but at least they have proved that they can win. Should be exciting to watch
4.55 Wolv Stanley Baldwin looks to have a good chance of winning this. Its price has drifted out to 11/4 in some places from 2/1 last night. It also has two very live contenders that could beat it. This being so I have had £1 win at 9/1 on the William Haggas runner Alto Volante with Tom Marquand aboard. The horse ran a shocker when 8/11 favourite at Lingfield on its debut. This just can't be its true running. Although the trainer hasn't had a winner in the past 14 days he does have an excellent record at this track. I'll take a chance with a very small bet that the horse can improve to win.
Hence I haven't piled in on any favourites as they don't seem to be of value.
Total outlay today is £7.00
Good luck to all playing today
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GRRRRRRRRR once again beaten by half a length with my Nap selection Susie Javea. Never mind at least Alto Volante came good for me with Tom Marquand aboard. I had £1 at 9/1. Hence with Fffos Las abandoned my stakes were £3 and a return of £10 - a £7 profit. The Balance now c/fwd is £533.88 (£500 Bank)
Two racecards tomorrow full of NHF non handicaps. Looks like I have a lot of studying to do
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3.15 Sou Susie Javea one point win at 7/1 with Betfair
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5.45 Kem Tampere £4.20 at 4.2 (matched at 5.40) Loads of money for Hollie Doyle's horse, trading odds on in some places. Can't see it myself. Perhaps I will after the race, haha
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I feel a bit unlucky with Gulliver being beaten half a length by the favourite; however that's racing for you. Played the Tampere race wrong. Obviously should either not played if scared by the strong market support or had my small bet on Tampere and covered it with an insurance on the jolly old favourite. I got shafted by the Hollie Doyle favourite earlier Jeanette May being backed into 11/8 favurite and finishing 3rd. Hence when I backes her I got stuffed and when I went against her I got stuffed again ?
A few races to look at tomorrow, a couple with the favourites' odds edging towards 2/1. Not many non handicap races tomorrow though
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11 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
Some people might be interested to see how close they came, I would be reasonably happy if I came in the top half.
Maybe it would be helpful to state that only the last eight go forward into the second round, even though this is stated in the rules
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3.40 Km Jeanett May Hollie Doyle aboard) £5.30win at 3.45 = Poss win of £12.73
6.45 Km Gulliver £2.30 win at 7.8 = poss return of £15.33. Fascinating race where Aberama Gold is easy to back and Tranchee with the red hot Richard Kingscote in the saddle. I reckon that Gulliver is just as a good bet as anything else running in the race.
Wasted £4.20 earlier on Egostistic What a crap run for my money
£11.80 total singles bets so far so no fortune maker if one of the remaining two win
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3.40 Km Jeanette May one point win at 9/4 with Bet365
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Many thanks for the update @MCLARKE it seems a bit strange to me to see 18 entrants at the qualifying stage that is reduced to 8. What is the point in showing another 10 who don't seem to have a hope in continuing in the KO cup?
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20 minutes ago, Astleavista said:
The rules state that 8 qualify for the KO stage, 1v8, 2v7 etc. On that basis you will be up against Saddlesore.
Ken
Many thanks. It will be great if @MCLARKE can confirm the pairings though
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Just wondering when the pairings will be announced?
Looks like I may be up against @PercyPwhich seems very tricky for me to play as he picked EW chances in the first round. Seems to be a good strategy so I will have to think about this one very hard
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New Members
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Posted 4 hours ago
Not a lot of quailty racing in the non handicap races today.
Last night I took a bet of £7 to win at 6/4 about La Tihaty in the 1.10 at Lingfield. It has now been smashed into 5/6 in the betting market. This is Roger Varian's horse and the trainer has a good record at this track. I have been caught out at least a couple of times in backing a horse on the strength of just one run, so I'll wait and see what happens. Melody Of Life has drifted from 11/8 to 2/1 from the overnight position. Even at this price an insurance bet doesn't look worthwhile. I have had a small bet of £2.50 to win on Escapement at 5/1 just in case this one sprouts wings for Richard Kingscote who is in outstanding form at present
The only other selection I could find was Radrizzani in the 6.10 at Wolves. This horse is way ahead on ratings, however, it flopped last time when favourite so one has to keep the faith with it. I'd rather keep my money in my betting bank. It looks as though it has at least two worthwhile live contenders so I am not backing it.
Good luck to the brave people playing today
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At least La Tihaty did the business for me today. Outlay £9.50 on two horses and return £17.50 = a £9 profit
The balance is now £541.88 (Bank £500)
There is a class 2 non handicap event tomorrow at 6.45 Kempton. The favourite is Aberama Gold. Bet365 is brave offering it 9/4. I won't bite atm as I haven't had to weigh it up yet. Looks good on paper though
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38 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:
You're not alone...there is another Tuesday thread ?
Didn't see it. How is it listed. I do wish members would stick to the standard "racing chat" format so it is easy to find
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I rather feel that I'm the last man standing today
I fully understand with the new national lockdown coming into force.
The powers that be should not have allowed the schools, colleges and universities to go back in September. I wonder if they feel any guilt about all the increased casualties of and loss of life to Covid 19 since?
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1.10 Lin La Tihaty one point win at 5/6 with Bet365 (kicking myself for not putting it up last night when its price changed from 6/4 to 11//8)
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Not a lot of quailty racing in the non handicap races today.
Last night I took a bet of £7 to win at 6/4 about La Tihaty in the 1.10 at Lingfield. It has now been smashed into 5/6 in the betting market. This is Roger Varian's horse and the trainer has a good record at this track. I have been caught out at least a couple of times in backing a horse on the strength of just one run, so I'll wait and see what happens. Melody Of Life has drifted from 11/8 to 2/1 from the overnight position. Even at this price an insurance bet doesn't look worthwhile. I have had a small bet of £2.50 to win on Escapement at 5/1 just in case this one sprouts wings for Richard Kingscote who is in outstanding form at present
The only other selection I could find was Radrizzani in the 6.10 at Wolves. This horse is way ahead on ratings, however, it flopped last time when favourite so one has to keep the faith with it. I'd rather keep my money in my betting bank. It looks as though it has at least two worthwhile live contenders so I am not backing it.
Good luck to the brave people playing today
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1 hour ago, Trotter said:
Well ....... relative weights are only of importance in handicaps
This isn't a handicap and neither was his first run...... so the weights are determined by the Race Conditions
If you're using the Racing Post you can choose to have the Race Conditions shown on the card which might be useful to read
Also if you're using the Post note this .......
On the race card it shows the allotted weight before any riders allowances are taken off ....... so it shows 11.5 but with the riders allowance he will actually carry 10-9 today
On the horses form page the weight it shows is the weight after the riders allowance is taken off ........ so for his last run it shows 10-4 so his allotted weight would have been 11.0
Many thanks. All a bit confusing to me
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Well, not a great deal on offer today in the non handicaps
I was fascinated to see in the 3.25 at Fakenham that Tiny Tantrum has over a stone more in weight than on its last run. The 10lbs claimer allowance doesn't count as it is the same rider who rode it last time. On the other hand Harde Fashion is only carrying 4lbs more than on its last effort. I don't understand this discrepancy in the weights. Perhaps @Trotter can come to my aid. Anyway I'm not playing as there are a few others with what looks to be good chances.
I have had a bet in the 3.50 at Wolvs with £3.50 on Kyllukey at 7/2 with Richard Kingscote aboard. It has drifted from 5/2 overnight but I think that it should beat Dubai Paradise and I don't see that Captain Ryan is as good as it was last year.
In the 6.20 at Wolves I have had £6 at 3.47 on Shimmering Dawn which seems a good price. Again this is a drifter as the media and the market have plumped for Amniarix. Good luck to that one if it wins but I'll stick with the horse that should win at the weights.
Finally I have gone for Big Kitty in the 6.50 at Wolves with Ben Curtis aboard £4 win at 11/4 last night . The market has gone for Hollie Doyle's horse Angel Mill which I believe is too short
Hence, I have chosen drifters today, however, you never know the market can always change in the run up to post time.
Total outlay to day is £13.50
Good luck to all sailing in the races today
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A complete washout for me today. I had another £2 on Big Kitty So my loss for the day was £15.50. My only regret was that I didn't have a cover win bet on Amniarix (RichardKingscote in flying form with three winners). I will do the cover bet in future when I think that I am betting on a two horse race. I had no qualms about not doing so on Hollie Doyle's horse Angel Mill as I simply did not fancy it despite all the market hype. My balance has now been reduced to £533.88 (£500 Bank)
Many thanks to @Trotterfor pointing out the actual weight to be carried by Tiny Tantrum earlier, plus also to look at the race conditions regarding weights and penalties. I will look out for jockeys with allowances that have to be deducted from the advertised weight on race cards in future in my non-handicap races.
Only two meetings tomorrow in the UK. Two class 5 races and three Class 6 races. No future stars on show for my non handicap races tomorrow I fear.
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6.50 Wolv Big Kitty one point win at 11/4 with Bet365
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Looked at 9 non-handicap races today. Lots of odds on shots, some not worthy imo
Had small interest in Tonyx 12.27 Catt £2 win at 6.4 - £10.58 profit if it wins. Gets almost a stone in weight from Bareback Jack who should be very hard to beat. Tonyx was a smart runner on the flat so a small wager looks to be reasonable
Having looked at the rest of the races, I feel, on balance that Diomedes Des Mottes is the best bet of the day in the 1.30 Catt. It is trading at around 6/4 atm. Only 3 runners. There are some doubts about the stamina of Thomas Macdonag and whilst improvement may come from Eva's Oskar I will stick with the Skelton horse for my money. I have just secured £7 at 2.64 on Betfair betting exchange = £11.25 profit if it wins so almost a £1 better off over the 6/4 price.
Good luck to all the die-hards having a bet today
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The above didn't work out so trying my luck in the classifieds at Southwell
3.15 Zahirah £2 win at 6.2 = poss return of £10.19
3.15 Pearl Spectre £1.30 win at 17/2 poss return £12.353.45 Drew Breeze £2 win at 6.2 u/m (5.9) poss return of £10.19
Total stakes today £14.30
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A bit of a disappointing day with my Nap selection pulling up. The explanation given for the horse's poor performance was abysmal (all he/she said was that the gelding weakened quickly going out on to the final circuit). At least drew Breeze got matched at 6.4 and won so a small loss of £2.11 on the day. the balance is now £549.38 (£500 bank) so all is OK.
Seven races to look at tomorrow so hopefully I will find a decent opportunity to have a bet
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1.30 Catt Diomedes Des Motte one point win at 6/4 with bet365
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13 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
5:40 Wolves think you have called that dead right even if it was to win which i doubt it will i make it an outsider to be honest 8yo never won CD? Word of honour for me as a little tickle nothing serious. Highest mountain for R/FC.
Well, at least Revolutionary Man got me my money back. Didn't know about 8yo never having won at the CD. Michele Strogoff finished 8th at 5/2 favourite beaten 7.25 lengths!
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12.35 Lin Wake Up Harry £5.30 win at 9/4 = £17.22 (now trading at 5/2). Loads of money for Abrag 2/1 last night and now the best price is 6/4 so has strong market confidence.
2.25 San Galice Macalo £4.20 at 11/4 = £15.75 (now the best price is 3/1). I have had £3.10 on Metier at 11/8 = £7.36 as an insurance bet (Matt Chapman all over this one this morning)
5.40 Wolv Pour La Victoire £2 win at 13/2 and £1 win at 11/1 being a drifter now. Had £1 win on Revolutionary Man at 9/2 as a saver. The market is very strong for Michele Strogof but its form does not back it up so I'll treat it as a false favourite.
6.40 Wolv Lochnaver £3.30win at 4.4 = £11.00. Napper Tandy very strong in the market. Was evens last night and is now at a best price of 5/6.
I realise that I have not selected the favourite in any of the above races but genuinely believe I have chosen the best horses to win.
Good luck to all today
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The main winner I had was Wake Up Harry at 9/4. I also had two saver bet winners which helped my cash flow and profit. I laid our £19.90 and got back £30.09 so a profit of £10.19 on the day The balance c/fwd is now £551.49 (Bank £500) Just scraping in a 10% ROI which is a good start to the year (for me anyway)
Looks like there could be a few non handicap races for me to look at tomorrow
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2.25 San Galice Macalo one point win at 3/1 with Bet365. Has to beat Metier which is a strong favourite but what the heck, she ran well at Sandown and gets a 7lbs allowance so I'll go with this one
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12.35 Lin Wake Up Harry 9/4 with Bet365
2.25 San Galice Macalo 11/4 with Bet365
6.40 Wolv Lochnaver 9/4 with Betvictor
Reserves
2.25 San Metier 11/8 with Betfair
5.40 Wolv Pour La Victoire 7/1 with Betvictor
6.40 Wolv Napper Tandy 1/1 with Bet365
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8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
The following players have qualified for the KO cup this month.
@SimonE did not post enough selections to qualify and I will stand down to allow somebody else a chance.
Starts tomorrow, Saturday 2nd January.
Good luck !
Most noble of you to stand down to let someone else have a go
Naps - Thursday 7th January
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
Very well done ?