The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Been out all day so not much time to look at racing.
I haven't liked the look of the graded races today so I have just selected on in a handicap at Wolves
4.25 Nellie French £2 win at 6.2 = £10.19 profit if it wins. Kevin Stott's horse is favourite at 11/8 but I think my selection has just as a good chance of winning. Besides I don't like short priced favourites in handicaps. I've decided that my minimum price for a horse is 9/4 in a handicap, I used to use 7/2 but this doesn't seem workable now that so many favourites go off at a shorter price
RESULTS UPDATE
My one and only bet won yielding a profit of £10.19. Very interesting looking back on original paperwork. Amazing Amaya had previously beaten Nellie French by 5.25 lengths into 6th place and in this race was only 3lbs worse off. Timeform had my selection one point ahead of Amazing Amaya and RPR had Amazing Amaya one point ahead of Nellie French. Amazing Amaya should have beaten Nellie French by 2.25 lengths but instead got beaten by 3 lengths, hence 5.25 lengths descrepancy. There are two possible explanations. In the original race Nellie French raced wide and lost her position plus Nellie French improved and won her next race. Hence, previous bad positioning and subsequent improvement seems to be the reason why Nellie French finished ahead of Amazing Amaya. One day I will understand all this stuff.
My new balance is £540.33 (Bank £500)
Four UK meetings tomorrow if they go ahead. I'm out in the morning so I will have to make up for lost ground when I get home.
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Been out all day so not much time to look at racing.
I haven't liked the look of the graded races today so I have just selected on in a handicap at Wolves
4.25 Nellie French £2 win at 6.2 = £10.19 profit if it wins. Kevin Stott's horse is favourite at 11/8 but I think my selection has just as a good chance of winning. Besides I don't like short priced favourites in handicaps. I've decided that my minimum price for a horse is 9/4 in a handicap, I used to use 7/2 but this doesn't seem workable now that so many favourites go off at a shorter price
- LEE-GRAYS, kroni, Villa Chris and 1 other
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4.25 Wolv Nellie French one point win at 9/2 with Bet365
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11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
1.40 Ex I like the look of Solwara One but with three live contenders I don't like the price. I don't like Cascova despite it being strong in the market
2.10 Ex I like Karl Phillipe but I don't like the price. Have put in £3.50 at 4.4 but unlikely to be matched. Was going to dutch with Killer Kane. Trying to get £2.50 at 5.5, this may get matched
4.10 Ex Champagne Platinum £1.50 win at 15/2 = poss return of £12.75. A very open race so taken a chance on this recomended sports media beast
5.10 Ex Exmoor Express £1 win at 9/1 Another open race; let's hope that Victor Dartnall has this one tuned up.
Nothing doing for me at Southewell with a 1/6 and 10/11 shot in the graded races
Realistically, £5.00 staked today
Good luck in finding winners to all forum contributors today
RESULTS UPDATE
Funny enough I made over £21 on the day with some non published bets. But I have to report on what I published. I didn't get Karl Phillipe matched which was a pity because it won well backed into 6/4 favourite. Killer Kane did get matched so I lost £2.50. Champagne Platinum was a non runner and Exmoor Express lost. Hence a £3.50 loss on the day. My new balance is £530.14 (Bank £500). A 1/6 shot got beat today at Southwell. According to my staking chart I should have had £25 on this beast. Glad I didn't!
Three meetings tomorrow. Favourites in the graded races at Warwick are mostly odds on. Wolverhampton has only one graded race with an odds on shot so I am left with jumpers bumpers at Lingfield. From what I can see the jolly old bookies are not being over generous on prices for favourites there either.
I won't lose any sleep over it
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1.40 Ex I like the look of Solwara One but with three live contenders I don't like the price. I don't like Cascova despite it being strong in the market
2.10 Ex I like Karl Phillipe but I don't like the price. Have put in £3.50 at 4.4 but unlikely to be matched. Was going to dutch with Killer Kane. Trying to get £2.50 at 5.5, this may get matched
4.10 Ex Champagne Platinum £1.50 win at 15/2 = poss return of £12.75. A very open race so taken a chance on this recomended sports media beast
5.10 Ex Exmoor Express £1 win at 9/1 Another open race; let's hope that Victor Dartnall has this one tuned up.
Nothing doing for me at Southewell with a 1/6 and 10/11 shot in the graded races
Realistically, £5.00 staked today
Good luck in finding winners to all forum contributors today
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4.10 Exeter Champagne Platinum one point win at 15/2 with Bet365
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11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Can't find anyone starting this thread today. Don't blame anyone it's a terrible day for racing
12.50 Lin Give E'm the Slip £8 win at 6/5 = £17.60 return if win
1.25 Lin Mahale £2 win at 8.50 = £14.69 if win
2.00 Lin anything can win despite Water Of Leith being the top star rated on Timeform
2.35 Favourite 4/7 no thanks
3.10 Lin Avorski £1 win at 11/1. Trying to get £5.50 at 3.30 = £12.40 on Stopnsearch shortened to 3.15. Will leave if not matched
3.45 Lin Handicap. Too competitive to play
Total possible stakes = £16.50
Wolverhampton,. Too many short priced favourites in handicaps. I'l go do something better with my time
RESULTS UPDATE
Very disappointing day without getting a winner. Lost £16.50. My new balance is £533.64 (Bank £500)
I do hope that Exeter goes ahead tomorrow, there seems to be some good races there.
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Can't find anyone starting this thread today. Don't blame anyone it's a terrible day for racing
12.50 Lin Give E'm the Slip £8 win at 6/5 = £17.60 return if win
1.25 Lin Mahale £2 win at 8.50 = £14.69 if win
2.00 Lin anything can win despite Water Of Leith being the top star rated on Timeform
2.35 Favourite 4/7 no thanks
3.10 Lin Avorski £1 win at 11/1. Trying to get £5.50 at 3.30 = £12.40 on Stopnsearch shortened to 3.15. Will leave if not matched
3.45 Lin Handicap. Too competitive to play
Total possible stakes = £16.50
Wolverhampton,. Too many short priced favourites in handicaps. I'l go do something better with my time
- yossa6133, cannotbebeat and Wildgarden
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12.50 Lin Give E'm The Slip one point win at 6/5 with Bet365
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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Only one meeting today. I have had a few bets to include handicaps
1.15 Sou Abrag I am trying to get £3 on at 5.2 currently reduced to 4.4 from 4.7. Will leave it if not matched. Front two in the market seem to be strong. I can't dutch all three and could easily choose the wrong one out of two
1.45 Sou Morlaix £5.50 win at 3.2 and Black Box £3.55 at 4.6 = £8.38 & £7.13 profit if one of them wins. Hopefully Mr Hyde doesn't turn up instead of Dr Jekyll and David Simcock stuffs my bet
2.15 Sou Requinto Dawn £2 win at 7.2 (um 7.0). I reckon any of the runners could win so may as well go for one at a good price
3.15 Sou Blackcurrent £5.50 win at 3.60 = £14.01 profit if it wins. Hollie Doyle aboard. Running very well lately. I like Kevin Stott but True Hero has had loads of goes at 5 furlongs without winning
3.45 Sou Custard The Dragon £1 win at 8/1. I don't like Equidae and Palazzo carries a penalty
Total possible stakes = £20.55
Good luck to all having a bet today
RESULTS UPDATE
My nap of the day went down but luckily for me I had 3 winners. A return of £46.54 yielded a profit figure of £25.99. My new balance is £550.14 (Bank £500) so at least I'm back up to a 10% ROI.
Looks like tomorrow's racing in the UK may qualify as being the worst on record for a Saturday. Never mind., Where there's muck there is brass, as they say up north
- Wildgarden, MCLARKE and Tedthewolf
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Only one meeting today. I have had a few bets to include handicaps
1.15 Sou Abrag I am trying to get £3 on at 5.2 currently reduced to 4.4 from 4.7. Will leave it if not matched. Front two in the market seem to be strong. I can't dutch all three and could easily choose the wrong one out of two
1.45 Sou Morlaix £5.50 win at 3.2 and Black Box £3.55 at 4.6 = £8.38 & £7.13 profit if one of them wins. Hopefully Mr Hyde doesn't turn up instead of Dr Jekyll and David Simcock stuffs my bet
2.15 Sou Requinto Dawn £2 win at 7.2 (um 7.0). I reckon any of the runners could win so may as well go for one at a good price
3.15 Sou Blackcurrent £5.50 win at 3.60 = £14.01 profit if it wins. Hollie Doyle aboard. Running very well lately. I like Kevin Stott but True Hero has had loads of goes at 5 furlongs without winning
3.45 Sou Custard The Dragon £1 win at 8/1. I don't like Equidae and Palazzo carries a penalty
Total possible stakes = £20.55
Good luck to all having a bet today
- cannotbebeat and LEE-GRAYS
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3.15 Sou Blackcurrent one point win at 5/2 with Betfair
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7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
This is the second time I have been let down by an even money shot. What a poor performance from a so called classy horse running for a top yard. So much for my target of 2 out of 3 wins for such beasts with 2/3 losses on the cards.
I have now bet £5.50 win at 3.25 on Calva D' Auge in the 4.45 Km. Let's hope that this will make amends
RESULTS UPDATE
Both selections lost so £15.50 down today that makes a dent in my betting bank. The new balance is £524.15 (Bank £500)
Only about four graded races for me to look at tomorrow; pretty grim stuff
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5 hours ago, calva decoy said:
I fail to see why people have a bet in these bumper races in where the majority of the runners are & have been hurdling & or chasing & they're just to give horses a bit of a blow out though I do feel for folks who'd backed Sternrubin in the race who'd been backed down to around 11/4 / 5/2ish from double figure price .
You make a good point, however, my beef was that a horse from the Henderson yard should run like a cart horse when backed into 5/6 favourite. I accept that short priced favourites do get beat, however, when a horse runs as badly as this one did, imo, it should not have been put in the race. I fail to see what sort of race this event could be a fore runner to a more scintillating display on its next chasing escapade.
I would hope that the backers of Sternubin had some money on Golden Taipan at 16/1 in the previous race won by the Paddy Brennan/Fergal O'Brien combination
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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:
Had to take my car in as water is getting into the cracked seals that run along the roof. I don't think I'll be getting the £388.80 back this afternoon ☹️
Anyway I have got £10 to win on Elusive Belle for Nickie Henderson at 2.06 = £10.39 profit if it prevails.
Will look at the other races at Kempton to see if I can be tempted
This is the second time I have been let down by an even money shot. What a poor performance from a so called classy horse running for a top yard. So much for my target of 2 out of 3 wins for such beasts with 2/3 losses on the cards.
I have now bet £5.50 win at 3.25 on Calva D' Auge in the 4.45 Km. Let's hope that this will make amends
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Had to take my car in as water is getting into the cracked seals that run along the roof. I don't think I'll be getting the £388.80 back this afternoon ☹️
Anyway I have got £10 to win on Elusive Belle for Nickie Henderson at 2.06 = £10.39 profit if it prevails.
Will look at the other races at Kempton to see if I can be tempted
- Villa Chris and cannotbebeat
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3.10 Km Elusive Belle one point win at 1/1 with Bet365
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6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Awful day for racing.
4.45 Wolv Never Said Nothing £2 win at 7.0 = a profit £11.76 if it wins. Rectory Road is top rated RPR and Timeform but isn't exactly the model of consistency, so I'll pass. I should at least get a run for my money on my selection.
7.15 Wolv Had a £1 win on Time Frame at 18/1 with Hollie Doyle aboard. The horse was unsuited to Fibresand but ran OK at Wolves previously so looks to have a decent outsider's chance. The favourite is around a best price of 11/10. In its favour is that it is way out in front on ratings with RPR and Timeform. Against it is that it has been fancied on several ocasions at varying distances and has disappointed. I know it lost yesterday but on paper at least Fllic Ou Voyou at evens looked a much better proposition than this horse. I wish all favourite backers the best of luck but it isn't carrying my money with it
Total stakes £3
Good luck to all who have more confidence in their selections than me today
RESULTS UPDATE
I did get a run for my money with Never Said Nothing. Unfortunately it got beaten 3/4 of a length into 2nd. Time Frame hung right and got beaten 9 lengths. My new balance is now £539.64 (Bank £500)
Some interesting racing tomorrow at Kempton with jumpers bumpers and NHF races. Nothing doing for me at Newcastle; one graded race with a 4/6 forecast favourite
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Awful day for racing.
4.45 Wolv Never Said Nothing £2 win at 7.0 = a profit £11.76 if it wins. Rectory Road is top rated RPR and Timeform but isn't exactly the model of consistency, so I'll pass. I should at least get a run for my money on my selection.
7.15 Wolv Had a £1 win on Time Frame at 18/1 with Hollie Doyle aboard. The horse was unsuited to Fibresand but ran OK at Wolves previously so looks to have a decent outsider's chance. The favourite is around a best price of 11/10. In its favour is that it is way out in front on ratings with RPR and Timeform. Against it is that it has been fancied on several ocasions at varying distances and has disappointed. I know it lost yesterday but on paper at least Fllic Ou Voyou at evens looked a much better proposition than this horse. I wish all favourite backers the best of luck but it isn't carrying my money with it
Total stakes £3
Good luck to all who have more confidence in their selections than me today
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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Looks like I'm having a bad day at the office. I back against the favourite and it wins. I back the favourite and it loses. You've got to hand to Dan Skelton his horses are running out of their skin at present.
3.20 Km Earlofthecotswold £3.50 win at 5.6 & £2.00 win on San Benedeto at 10.0 = £13.82 &v £14.21 if either win.
4.20 Km Crooks Peak. I couldn't resist having a £1 win bet at 20/1 on this. A listed bumper winner in 2017. Who knows what Dan Skelton will get from him. The RP says Harry Skelton riding whilst ATR and Odddschecker say Bridget Andrews is riding???
No bets for me at Southwell as the only graded race has a 2/7 favourite that is not for me
Total outlay is now £25. Looks like it is going to be a bad day for me today
RESULTS UPDATE
Worked out alright in the end despite my even money hot pot losing. The problem with those type of bets is that I don't have much scope to dutch with another horse. Had two late winners and so at least made a small profit of £6.20. My balance is now £542.65 (£500 Bank)
UK cards decimated tomorrow. We are only left with Newcastle & Wolverhampton. Looks like I may only have two graded races to look at as the other two have a 2/5 and and even money shot at the head of affairs.
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2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
12.45 Km Balco Coastal is favourite with a best price of 6/4. Not sure about this one at the price. Instead have had £2.00 win at 11.0 on the Skelton horse Get Sky high and £3.50 win on Nina The Terrier at 4.5. £16.17 or £10.05 profit either wins
1.15 Km Stanley Stanley could be anything but at 15/8 I'll let others take a chance. Divas Mix seems to be easy to back so a word of caution I feel is needed
1.45 Km Lucky Dream looks tempting with a best price of 5/2 but I have counted at least four other possibles so I won't be lumping on this one
2.15 Km Flic Ou Voyou I have bitten the bullet and have had £10 to win on this at evens. I do feel uncomfortable about this as I feel I need to get 2 out of 3 winners when taking such a price. It looks to have a very good chance of winning so I will give this one a go.
2.50 Km Jacamar has a best price of around 3/1 Very unsure about this one. Possiblilties for 4 other rivals so will leave the race alone .
3.20 Km Let's hope that On The Slopes won't end up on the ropes. I reckon that all 4 runners have a chance in this one. Not for me
3.50 Km I have had £3 to win on Ecco at 4.7 = a possible profit of £10.88 if it wins. I like Honest Vic and am hoping that our so called sports media writers are right when they say that it will be tapped for toe in this event
Total stakes £18.50 today.
Good luck to all with their endeavours against the enemy today
Looks like I'm having a bad day at the office. I back against the favourite and it wins. I back the favourite and it loses. You've got to hand to Dan Skelton his horses are running out of their skin at present.
3.20 Km Earlofthecotswold £3.50 win at 5.6 & £2.00 win on San Benedeto at 10.0 = £13.82 &v £14.21 if either win.
4.20 Km Crooks Peak. I couldn't resist having a £1 win bet at 20/1 on this. A listed bumper winner in 2017. Who knows what Dan Skelton will get from him. The RP says Harry Skelton riding whilst ATR and Odddschecker say Bridget Andrews is riding???
No bets for me at Southwell as the only graded race has a 2/7 favourite that is not for me
Total outlay is now £25. Looks like it is going to be a bad day for me today
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12.45 Km Balco Coastal is favourite with a best price of 6/4. Not sure about this one at the price. Instead have had £2.00 win at 11.0 on the Skelton horse Get Sky high and £3.50 win on Nina The Terrier at 4.5. £16.17 or £10.05 profit either wins
1.15 Km Stanley Stanley could be anything but at 15/8 I'll let others take a chance. Divas Mix seems to be easy to back so a word of caution I feel is needed
1.45 Km Lucky Dream looks tempting with a best price of 5/2 but I have counted at least four other possibles so I won't be lumping on this one
2.15 Km Flic Ou Voyou I have bitten the bullet and have had £10 to win on this at evens. I do feel uncomfortable about this as I feel I need to get 2 out of 3 winners when taking such a price. It looks to have a very good chance of winning so I will give this one a go.
2.50 Km Jacamar has a best price of around 3/1 Very unsure about this one. Possiblilties for 4 other rivals so will leave the race alone .
3.20 Km Let's hope that On The Slopes won't end up on the ropes. I reckon that all 4 runners have a chance in this one. Not for me
3.50 Km I have had £3 to win on Ecco at 4.7 = a possible profit of £10.88 if it wins. I like Honest Vic and am hoping that our so called sports media writers are right when they say that it will be tapped for toe in this event
Total stakes £18.50 today.
Good luck to all with their endeavours against the enemy today
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2.15 Km Flic Ou Voyou one point win at evens with Betfair
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The bookies are taking very little chances in the graded races today, many selections are odds on.
I have managed to get £6 on at 2.90 = poss £11.17 profit on Quest For Life in the 12.55 at Newc. There is a price rally on Cathals Star at present. This horse has to bounce back from a poor run on heavy ground last time and doesn't look to be as consistent as Quest For life. The race looks to be between the front two in the betting so I am happy to go along with my selection at the price.
2.35 Nc 3 main contenders, nothing looks strong so I'll pass
3.35 Nc I prefer Who's My Jockey to once again beat Onward Route despite a 6lbs penalty for a 2.5 length win over it. As I once read, you can give away weight but it is much harder to give away distance. Anyway, I don't need to take unnecessary risks so I'll give it a miss
4.10 Nc At least 4 live contenders with the front two 9/4 and 5/2. I'll let someone else figure that one out
5.00 Wolv Open Mystery is 10/11 strong favourite. I quite like Mopps Gem but drifting to 3/1. Don't feel that Open Mystery is worthy of 10/11 so I'll pass
7.00 Wolv Yankee Stadium is at least odds against now which is tempting. However there seems to be a lot of unknowns in the race so I'll leave that one alone as well
I hope that I have chosen the best selection out of all the above contenders.
Good luck to all punting today
- Nigwilliam and MCLARKE
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Naps - Tuesday 16th February
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
2.55 Km Trixie Waterbury one point win at 6/1 with Bet365
Always reassuring to find @Trotter having the same confidence