The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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1 hour ago, LEE-GRAYS said:
More than a few outsiders ??
13.00 plumpton love you to the moon 18/1 4places
13.30 plumpton delta rose 20/1 4places
14.00 plumpton Floy joy 20/1
15.30 plumpton fetherd flyer 16/1 4places
1.10 Leicester tip top cat 12/1
2.40 Leicester san seb 9/1
3.10 Leicester bit my tongue 35/1 6places
12.50 nass new money 14/1
13.50 nass yaha fizz 16/1
14.20 nass ragner lodbrok 22/1 4places
14.50 nass direct fire 16/1 4places
15.20 nass dedanann 22/1 5places
16.15 kempton puffin island 12/1
16.45 kempton zoolander 12/1
17.15 kempton mojambo 30/1 4places
19.20 kempton thanielle 10/1
19.50 kempton echo beach 14/1
20.20 kempton flat to the max 7/1
12.05 chantily bourdain 7/1
12.50 chantily millfield 14/1
13.25 chantily atalante 20/1
14.00 chantily thunderdome 33/1
15.10 chantily ghayadh 14/1
all bets 50p e/w bet365 ???
Wow! looks as though you eat sleep and drink horse racing. Good luck
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1.00 Plum Here Comes Johnny have had £4 win at 3.9 = £11.37 profit if it wins. Looks like the right distance and the horse has proved itself/ Tallow For Coal has the ratings but is very short a price for its experience thus far
1.30 Plu Natutural History should win this and is in good hands for jumps training with Gary Moore. However, I'm not taking 4/6 about it
2.00 Plu Star Academy looks good. It hasn't won a race yet and was 20/1 last time when finishing a good 3rd. Venetia keeps letting me down of late so I'll pass.
1.40 Leic All closely matched on ratings. Fascinating race. But fascination doesn't pay the bills so I'll pass on that one too
2.10 Leic. Zambella I have manged to get evens for £10 about this horse. Looks to be consistent and has a lot of promise so I'll go for this one. My nap of the day
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I think I've now found my calling with regards to horse racing selections. Stick to the non-handicap races and selections with proven experience where the day's racing conditions most suit. This is still no cake-walk as the bookies shorten up prices on these selections/races so as to try and make a profit come what may. Anyway, two selections and two winners today so I'll sit on my laurels for the rest of the day.
£14.00 outlay and £35.37 return hence a £21.37 profit for the day. This means a new betting balance of £555.46 (Bank £500).
Looks like some more opportunities tomorrow
- MCLARKE, Wildgarden and LEE-GRAYS
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Best of luck and let's hope that Ken @kendallmintcake posts up his selections soon so as to make an interesting competition of it
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2.10 Leic Zambella one point win at Evens with Bet365
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5.00 Nc Royal Birth 0.5 points ew at 15/2 with Bet 365 Haha this is a first for me. Should have had venturous win at 9/4. I have backed this one to win but just a little worried that it seems easy to back
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No bets so far in my non-handicap races.
12.30 Weth Mont Segur. Left hand track should suit but I have to question its stamina on heavy going. Dream of Home has won in PTP but has no rating so I'm confused about its chances, No bet for me
1.00 Wet I quite like the look of Vienna Court. Not sure it will run prominently which is an advantage at Wetherby. Lust For Glory hasn't won a race. I quite like the look of Pink Legend and, if I can get say 4/1 I may play this one alone. Having said that Venetia let me down badly yesterday despite my selection Quietlyflowsthedon being backed into 3/1 favourite from my price of 12/1 (it ran a shocker of a race)
1.30 Weth Rockstar Ronnie is obviously in good hands with the Skelton. It has no rating from PTP so once again this to me is confusing. It seems to have at least three live contenders so I'll pass.
3.40 Weth Tweed Skirt is the Henderson runner and is 5/6 favourite. I don't usually look at pedigree information but it seems to me that this is quite a tough ask for the horse to shine over 12.5 furlongs. Steel An Icon is a distance winner in a class 5 race on soft going. It has a 7lbs penalty and it is now racing on heavy going. The percentage call seems to be not to have a bet so I'll pass.
Sorry if anyone feels that posting up details of races without making a selection is a waste of time. However, I regard the day's racing just as like having a box of mixed sweets and choosing the best one's to take. To me it is just as important to consider not having a bet when not all seems to be right than having a bet just for the sake of it
Possibly back later if I get time for more analysis.
Good luck everyone
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Some interesting non handicap racing at Newcastle
5.00 Nc Venturous £4.50 win at 5/2 = Poss Return of £15.75 All looks too perfect for me for this one to win. I have had a saver of 80p win at 15/2 on Royal Birth = £6.80 return if win
5.30 Nc Unmalnar £1.58 win at 2.30 (tried to get £8.30 matched but no chance now). Had saver on Vintager of £2 at 5.6 = poss return of £9.02. However this now translates into a 5p net profit if Unmalnar wins and £7.47 profit if Vintager wins. There will be a £3.58 loss should either lose. Not to bad a bet I think.
6.00 Baileys Warrior £6 win at 2/1 = poss return of £18. Small saver on Destacado of 90p win at 8/1 with a possible return of £8.10
£15.78 total staked today
Looks interesting to watch
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Haha, I didn't heed my own advice. Venturous looked to be the best bet and it won. I made it even worse by having Royal Birth ew as my nap bet. Anyway Unmalnar ran a stinker of a race finishing last at 5/4 favourite, whilst Baileys Warrior finished 6th. The horse drifted out to 4/1 so the market got that right in the end. Not the first time I've relied on one previous good run and got shafted. Lesson Learned. Anyway, thankfully Venturous saved me from losing anything apart from 3p. Hence my new balance is £534.09 (£500 Bank)
Some races to look at tomorrow but nothing staggeringly exciting
- yossa6133, LEE-GRAYS and Wildgarden
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1.05 Don Royal Pretender . I tried to get 3.05 when it was trading at 2.74. It is now trading at 2.42. I have cancelled my bet because if it did get matched later on then it would more likely to be a loser. It seems to be the best horse in the race so I wouldn't put anyone off backing it.
1.35 Don Stratagem. I have had £10.26 on this at 2.26 This will yield £10.14 profit if it wins because I have also had an insurance bet of £2.50 at 5.2 on Minella Trump. If that wins I gain 29p for my effort. If Ballymoy wins I lose £12.70. Seems to be my best play of the day.
2.05 Don Truckers Pass. Taking a best price of even money doesn't look like value to me because Llincorrigible looks to be no slouch and there are other dangers so I'll pass.
3.40 Don Wiseguy is unraced and with all the defections in the race I'll leave it to other brave souls to take 4/6 about its chance of winning
12.50 Her Kings Place seems to be unreliable and I'm not convinced with Ballybeg and Bangers And Cash so I'll pass on this one too
1.50 Her Millenford should win this but there is a lot of hype over The Mulcair so I'll pass.
3.50 Her Miss Fairfax. There is loads of money for Miss Fairfax 7/2 from about 5/1 last night. I will have a small wager of £1 at 12/1 about Quietlyflowsthedon. I reckon that Venetia owes me a winner on heavy going
5.45 Wolv Black Narcissus is trying to win over 6f now instead of 5f. So taking 10/11 about that one doesn't look like money in the bank to me.
6.45 Wolv I have found this race to be fascinating and I can't fathom out which of Bancok & SInjaary should win. This being so I reckon I would back the Gosden horse Forest Of Dean at 5/1 if I had a gun to my head. Fortunately this is not the case and I will exercise one of my favourite strategies by not having a bet.
Total stakes today = £13.70
Good luck to all punting today
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HAHA, NOBODY EVEN LIKED MY BRILLIANT ANALYSIS OF THE NON- HANDICAP RACES THUS FAR. HOPE OTHERS ARE FILLING THEIR BOOTS ?
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3 hours ago, Steve75 said:
Very kind suggestion Kendallmintcake!
Should this be the outcome then I cannot see how it could be incorporated into any future KO cup rules amendments. Who is to say whether @Sugardaddyken did not have a valid reason for not playing or someone like him,/her in the future should two players not participate in a round. It seems impractical for PL to run some sort of arbitration service. The simplest addition to the rules would be for PL administration to say that players who do not participate in a round forfeit their chance of going forward into the next round. In this way the play off's for those who tied would take place as usual.
I feel that we need a decision that can be used in the rules for the future.
Also, I'm not sure what happens when there is an odd number in the play off's. Perhaps @Trotter knows the answer to this one as it must have happened before.
Anyway, we will have to wait and see the outcome from @MCLARKEand the other administrators. All very difficult
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Nothing much doing today from my end. Only 3 qualifying non handicap races. The 3.20 at Southwell is very confusing to me with lots of horses carrying different weights; almost looks like a handicap. All this brought about because the colts are up against the fillies. I'll let someone else figure that one out.
I have had £8.30 to win at 5/4 on Karl Philipe in the 1.40 at Exeter. This is a Fergal O'Brien trained horse that ran very well on debut. It looks as thought it has one main opponent in the form of Gladiateur Allen. This horse was showing up at 11/8 last night and it easy to back at 2/1 now. The David Pipe horse doesn't look anything special so I'll go with the bigger yard over Mrs Jane Williams smaller one.
In the 4.10 at Exeter the claims of Flemenstide are obvious. It does have live competition though and I will have a small wager of £1.50 at 8/1 on the Fergal O'Brien trained Landen Calling. It seems to me to be a very difficult task to calculate how much any horse will improve on the basis of just one run so I'll take the better price for a very successful trainer once again.
Total stakes = £9.80 total stakes today.
Good luck to all the diehard's betting today
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Ah well. perhaps one day I will learn. It was obvious about Gladiateur Allen but I still didn't have an insurance bet which was very possible on the Pipe horse. Nit brain
I am waiting to see the winning distance as my selection was matched at 1.04 in-running
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Not a good day as my even money favourite got beat. Landen Calling ran a very strange race going all over the track. Anyway £9.80 loss today. This means that my c/fwd balance is now £523.98 (£500 Bank)
Some interesting non handicap racing tomorrow. Possibly some opportunities
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1.40 Ex Karle Phillipe one point win at 5/4 with Betfair
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12 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Today's results.
Haha, what does this mean in relation to the next round?
@MCLARKEI can see that there are 3 clear contestants going forward however, the 4th is not clear to me. There seems to be nothing in the rules about what happens when a contestant doesn't play in a round. It doesn't seem fair to me to assume that someone who did not participate would have either got a winner or a placed selection and therefore should play off against each other in order to qualify. What seems to me to be the fairest solution is for all including the one's who lost £3 should play off against each other to find the 4th contestant. Just to show that I am not trying to get myself back into the competition and, since there would be 5 outstanding contestants in the play off, I am willing to exclude myself on the grounds of fairness for the competition.
Would like to know what @kendallmintcake, @Steve75, @Astleavista, and @Sugardaddyken feel about all this? This looks like a difficult one to me.
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12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
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It would seem that I have been left with the dregs for my non handicap favourite selections today. I remember that @Trotteronce questioned whether a favourite in a low class race was possibly just as good as a favourite in a high class race. I believe that @MCLARKEthen provided statistics to show that the classier favourite horses do better than their low class counterparts. Never mind. I will console myself with the knowledge that the classiest favourites usually face tougher opposition than their lower class counterparts. Nevertheless, some fine tipping by my opponent today.
11.45 Chep Champagne Rhythm one point win at 9/4 with Bet365. Let's hope that it doesn't get stuffed by yet another Paul Nichols runner. £5.30 win at 9/4 actual bet.
12.00 Ling Who Cares Wins one point win at 15/8 with Betvictor. Let's hope that Hollie Doyle works her magic. £6 win at 7/4 actual bet
2.30 Chep Easy As That one point win at 2/1 with Bet365. Hoping that Venetia has this one well prepped for the heavy going on the course that she is famous for. £6.20 win at 15/8
I have had a fun bet in the in the 12.35 at Kempton £2 win on Barbadous Bucks at 2.9; £1.50 win on Under Supervision at 13/2 and 50p win at 10/1 on Welsh Castle.
Total singles stakes today are £21.50
Three cheers for all the staff at Chepstow who worked so hard to ensure that racing went ahead there. It looks as though we are all in for a real treat today with so much good racing fur us to see.
As usual the very best of luck to all punters having a go at trying to make some money with their betting today
Bad day so far. The only regret I have is that I did not have an insurance bet on Pozo Emery in the 11.45 at Chepstow. Stupid of me when I considered this one to be the main threat.
Never mind. I am now having £8.00 to win on another horse I considered earlier. This is At Your Service in the 4.45 at Chelmsford at 6/4. It has drifted slightly beuause of money pouring in for the Mick Appleby runner Your Choice. Whether this is one will win I don't know but I will have a small saver of £1.70 on Arnoul Of Metz at 5/1
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What a horrible day for the fancied runners in the non handicap races; even at Kempton.
My main three contenders in the KO cup all failed to win. Very interesting. This has taught me to narrow down a race to a main selection choice and, if I feel that there is one other major player then have an insurance bet on that. Where, it appears that there are two/three etc dangers, just to leave the race alone. I suppose I felt obliged to back all my fancies but that was a big mistake.
Oddly enough it was a class 6 selection that mitigated my losses. My fun bet also produced a small profit. I staked in total £31.20 and had a return of £25.72 so a small loss on the day of £5.48. This brings my balance to £533.78 (£500 Bank) so no harm done.
Only three non handicap races in the UK tomorrow. Funny enough they all seem to have short priced favourites along with a main challenger at short odds too. Judging on the forecast prices it looks as though it will simply not pay to back one and have another as an insurance bet. Why take a risk when there is no profit to be made?
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12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
It would seem that I have been left with the dregs for my non handicap favourite selections today. I remember that @Trotteronce questioned whether a favourite in a low class race was possibly just as good as a favourite in a high class race. I believe that @MCLARKEthen provided statistics to show that the classier favourite horses do better than their low class counterparts. Never mind. I will console myself with the knowledge that the classiest favourites usually face tougher opposition than their lower class counterparts. Nevertheless, some fine tipping by my opponent today.
11.45 Chep Champagne Rhythm one point win at 9/4 with Bet365. Let's hope that it doesn't get stuffed by yet another Paul Nichols runner
12.00 Ling Who Cares Wins one point win at 15/8 with Betvictor. Let's hope that Hollie Doyle works her magic
2.30 Chep Easy As That one point win at 2/1 with Bet365. Hoping that Venetia has this one well prepped for the heavy going on the course that she is famous for.
I forgot to add the reserves
11.52 Win Malinello one point win at 5/6 with bet365
4.45 Chelm At Your Service one point win at 10/11 with Bet365
Sorry
What a dreadful day. I hope that someone made some money! Well done to @glavintoby for at least nailing one winner on this very difficult day for favourites in non handicap races ?
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- New Members
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- 1631 posts
It would seem that I have been left with the dregs for my non handicap favourite selections today. I remember that @Trotteronce questioned whether a favourite in a low class race was possibly just as good as a favourite in a high class race. I believe that @MCLARKEthen provided statistics to show that the classier favourite horses do better than their low class counterparts. Never mind. I will console myself with the knowledge that the classiest favourites usually face tougher opposition than their lower class counterparts. Nevertheless, some fine tipping by my opponent today.
11.45 Chep Champagne Rhythm one point win at 9/4 with Bet365. Let's hope that it doesn't get stuffed by yet another Paul Nichols runner. £5.30 win at 9/4 actual bet.
12.00 Ling Who Cares Wins one point win at 15/8 with Betvictor. Let's hope that Hollie Doyle works her magic. £6 win at 7/4 actual bet
2.30 Chep Easy As That one point win at 2/1 with Bet365. Hoping that Venetia has this one well prepped for the heavy going on the course that she is famous for. £6.20 win at 15/8
I have had a fun bet in the in the 12.35 at Kempton £2 win on Barbadous Bucks at 2.9; £1.50 win on Under Supervision at 13/2 and 50p win at 10/1 on Welsh Castle.
Total singles stakes today are £21.50
Three cheers for all the staff at Chepstow who worked so hard to ensure that racing went ahead there. It looks as though we are all in for a real treat today with so much good racing fur us to see.
As usual the very best of luck to all punters having a go at trying to make some money with their betting today
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It would seem that I have been left with the dregs for my non handicap favourite selections today. I remember that @Trotteronce questioned whether a favourite in a low class race was possibly just as good as a favourite in a high class race. I believe that @MCLARKEthen provided statistics to show that the classier favourite horses do better than their low class counterparts. Never mind. I will console myself with the knowledge that the classiest favourites usually face tougher opposition than their lower class counterparts. Nevertheless, some fine tipping by my opponent today.
11.45 Chep Champagne Rhythm one point win at 9/4 with Bet365. Let's hope that it doesn't get stuffed by yet another Paul Nichols runner
12.00 Ling Who Cares Wins one point win at 15/8 with Betvictor. Let's hope that Hollie Doyle works her magic
2.30 Chep Easy As That one point win at 2/1 with Bet365. Hoping that Venetia has this one well prepped for the heavy going on the course that she is famous for.
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55 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:
55p in the pound. I thought samovar would win if it raced so only posted that up. My picks where as screen shot.
Yes. A net price of around 13/2 for a 4/1 winner seems a very good return. Well done
- The Brigadier and Wildgarden
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Lovely price for Hackberry too, went into 5/4 favourite ?
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4 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:
Had 12-1 last night before all the non runners brought it down lol
Well done. How much did you suffer in the way of deductions if you don't mind me asking?
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5 hours ago, Trotter said:
5.15 Southwell - Gabrial The Devil at 11/2
I was on Samovar yesterday (won) and he's turning out again today over the same CD in a small field handicap and he is the short priced favourite, currently 6/4
But I think he can opposed today ....... double penalty in a Class 4. The race he won yesterday was a Class 6. Also I think he needs a poor race to win at 6 furlongs ....... he was hanging on for the line yesterday and I think he's better at 5f unless they find him a really easy race at 6f
The one I like is decent odds ....... Gabrial The Devil at 11/2, currently 4th in te market out of the five runners
Last two wins off todays mark, back down to his winning trip after a couple of runs at 7f which he's never won at, back to Class 4 after a couple of runs in Class 2 and Class 3
Main doubt ..... his record on the AW is not great but then he's not run on it very often and the yard is in good nick
Hi Trotter,
Just made some money on your selection. Well done. Compensates for me being shafted on Snookered earlier on. I didn't realise that Pull Green was a non runner and got stuffed for a 25p deduction. Glad you were around to save me ?
- Trotter and Wildgarden
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14 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
2.10 Nc Snookered one point win at 4/1 with Bet365
I hope that @calva decoyhas inspired Brian Ellison to do a repeat of last year.
Although this one won I got hit with a 25p deduction because Pull Green was a non runner. Hope this helps @MCLARKEfor the figures
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I was initially pleased when I saw so many non handicap races to choose selections from today. However, when I consider that in the main punters are having to juggle flat form against hurdles and chase form it occurs to me that this is a great opportunity for the bookies to make a lot of money. This being so I have limited myself to possibly two main bets today.
I have already backed Snookered in the 2.10 at Newcastle £3.20 at 4/1 (my PL Nap). It looks to have a decent chance of winning this race and has now been backed into 9/4 best price (wouldn't have played at that price)
I think I have missed the boat in trying to get £3.20 at 4.2 about Divas Mix in the 11.50 at Lingfield. I will leave the bet open on the Betfair Exchange in the hope that money comes for the Fergal O'Brien trained City Derby. This horse was favourite to win its last race and was brought down. I am not so sure that it would have won had it not fallen so the Henderson horse looks well worth taking a chance on today.
I think that it could pay for punters to focus on the traditional stables that do well in bumpers rather than try and speculate on how hurdlers and chasers who are in good form will perform in what is essentially a flat race
Good luck to all whatever you do but I strongly suggest keeping stakes to a minimum today.
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Well my price got matched at 4.2 on Divas Mix and of course it got beat and came second. But as I am sure @richard-westwoodwould agree is if one cant 3/1 about a horse when it appears to have only one other main rival is a good deal. Well done to Fergal O'Brien and Paddy Brennan
In my other race, the price of Snookered has shortened so much that I felt compelled to trade out of the bet. Even more beneficial to my betting bank I have layed £6.54 at 2.26 which gives me a liability of £8.24 should the horse win. On the other hand I will receive a return of £16 should the horse win with Bet 365. Hence, I get my total outlay of the day back of £6.41 should the horse lose and alternatively win £16 - £8.24 = £7.76 profit should the horse win. A very cosy position to be in @calva decoythough I respect anyone's wishes to let the bet ride
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3 hours ago, calva decoy said:
Shhh ? I got 9/2 with your tip at 4.30 bet365 , prices are tumbling ?
And of course one can now trade out of the bet (not that I will) and take a profit
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2.10 Nc Snookered one point win at 4/1 with Bet365
I hope that @calva decoyhas inspired Brian Ellison to do a repeat of last year.
SIR PUNTALOT KO CUP 2nd ROUND - Deadline Saturday 2pm
in NAP of the Day Competition
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