The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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Sorry so late to post
16.05 Ayr Everyday Champagne £6 win at 3.25 = £13.23 if it wins. Brian Hughes chooses this over the 2nd stable horse.
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3.25 Ling Mystic Dreamer one point win at 2/1 with Bet365
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8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Last go today. 2.50 Punch Hell On Earth £3 win at 4/1 with bet365
I feel a little unlucky with Hell On Earth. It was travelling strongly when a loose horse drove it out with another in contention right through a side rail. Loads of incidents at Punchestown; Didn't enjoy my foray into Irish racing. Probably best left alone in future. Anyway a loss of £13.41 leaves with a new balance of £544.97 (Bank £500)
Loads of graded racing at Lingfield and Ayr tomorrow so let's hope I can find more reliable beasts to invest in
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56 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
Terrible race ran by Magic Tricks. Gone for £6.20 on Colonel Mustard in the 1.50 at Punchestown. £13.06 Profit if win.
Last go today. 2.50 Punch Hell On Earth £3 win at 4/1 with bet365
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4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Awful day's racing today. The only graded race in the UK is the 1.35 at Southwell where Ghost Rider is around 4/6. Not my idea of a value bet.
Unusually, I have selected a horse in the 1.20 Punchestown. This is Magic Tricks. I left a bet open on the Betfair Exchange of £4.21 at 4.4 and it got matched overnight. If it wins I will receive a profit of £14.03. Compare this with staking £12.50 at 1.66 on ghost Rider at 1.66 with a possible profit of £8.09!
Magic Tricks is currently trading between 9/4 to 5/2 so at least I have achieved some value in market terms. Having nothing else to find I have included the horse as my Nap at 3/1 (last night).
Good luck to other value finders today
Terrible race ran by Magic Tricks. Gone for £6.20 on Colonel Mustard in the 1.50 at Punchestown. £13.06 Profit if win.
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Awful day's racing today. The only graded race in the UK is the 1.35 at Southwell where Ghost Rider is around 4/6. Not my idea of a value bet.
Unusually, I have selected a horse in the 1.20 Punchestown. This is Magic Tricks. I left a bet open on the Betfair Exchange of £4.21 at 4.4 and it got matched overnight. If it wins I will receive a profit of £14.03. Compare this with staking £12.50 at 1.66 on ghost Rider at 1.66 with a possible profit of £8.09!
Magic Tricks is currently trading between 9/4 to 5/2 so at least I have achieved some value in market terms. Having nothing else to find I have included the horse as my Nap at 3/1 (last night).
Good luck to other value finders today
- Wildgarden and Den
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7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
£1.50 win on Flemcara at 8/1 3.35 Warwick (now running)
Results Update.
Terrible day for me. Should have stayed with just the one bet on on Make Me a Believer; I'm convinced that it would have won but for a very sloppy mistake at the last. Didn't Eileendover run a superb race? £12 down on the day. My balance is now £558.38 (£500 Bank)
Awful day's racing tomorrow. The only graded race for me in the UK is the 1.35 at Southwell where Ghost Rider is 4/6. Not playing here. I will go for one in the 1.20 at Punchestown out of desperation. Trying to get £4.21 matched at 4.4 = £14.31
Three cheers for @TheBrigadiertoday, I do hope that a few punters took some of his excellent advice. ?
- The Brigadier, MCLARKE and Wildgarden
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1.20 Punch Magic Tricks one point win at 3/1 with Williamhill
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23 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
Fantastic tipping on your part today. Very well done. I just hope you are not right in the 3.15 at M/R as I have backed Grangee for my naps selection today. Try not to mop up everywhere, I beg you
£1.50 win on Flemcara at 8/1 3.35 Warwick (now running)
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On 1/15/2021 at 12:48 PM, The Brigadier said:
It has to go down as one of the most low key racing Saturday’s of the year but there’s still plenty of winners to be found so let’s have a look a the terrestrial TV races in time order.
1.50 Warwick 3m Grade 2 Novices’ Chase
A disappointing turnout of only three going to post here and with stamina doubts over Colin Tizzard’s Fiddlerontheroof this should be yet another winner for the prolific winning machine of Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden. He impressed when winning at Newbury last time and despite a 5lb penalty for that victory should be following up here. The third in is Phil Middleton’s Golan Fortune who’s certainly no mug but may have to settle for a minor position.
NEXT DESTINATION 2 points win @ 8/11 William Hills
2.05 Market Rasen 2m 125yds Handicap Hurdle
A poor turnout and it’s hard to look beyond Alan King’s Edwardstone. He unseated on his chasing debut last time and his trainer feels that it’s a bit late in the season to persevere with fences so is happy to revert to the smaller obstacles with next month’s Betfair Hurdle the target (where currently he has 10-10 but if he wins here will incur a 5lb penalty). He’s a classy sort who ran 6th in last season’s Supreme Hurdle with the five in front of him Shishkin, Abracadbras, Chantry House, Asterion Forlonge and Allart. King has always held him in high esteem and although he wouldn’t wont bottomless ground he should be able to take care of his 4 rivals headed by Jennie Candlish’s Oscars Leader.
EDWARDSTONE 2 point win @ 6/5 Bet 365
2.25 Warwick 2m 5f Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle
A decent sized field with several holding claims. The ground is pushing towards heavy and this will be a real slog. Admirel didn’t impress last time and has to carry a 3lb penalty for that victory. Make Me A Believer impressed when winning last time at Cheltenham and has to be a player here. Colin Tizzard is having a season to forget but he can take this with Oscar Elite who’s shown stamina in abundance when winning two novice hurdles at Chepstow on bad ground. He’s the highest rated on official ratings and in a real slog he could be the answer.
OSCAR ELITE 1 point each way 5/1 Bet 365
2.40 Market Rasen 2m 7f 16yrds Hurdle
This should be fought out by Nicky Henderson’s On The Blind Side and Neil King’s Lil Rockerfeller. The former has to shoulder a 4lb penalty here for his listed handicap hurdle win at Cheletenham in November but comes here on the back of a decent 2nd to McFabulous at Kempton last Saturday. Lil Rockerfeller is a very likeable individual who always seems to run his race but hasn’t actually won for over two years now. Mohaayed is third in the betting but is held by On The Blind Side whilst the others have a bit to find now.
ON THE BLIND SIDE 2 points win @ 9/4 Bet 365
3.00 Warwick 3m 5f 54yds Classic Handicap Chase
A real test of stamina with 13 declared. Captain Chaos has obviously been laid out for this having finished runner up last season off of a 2lb lower mark. He wore blinkers that day and when subsequently bolting up at Doncaster in the Grimthorpe. He hasn’t worn them in three outings this season but surprise surprise they’re back on here and having been backed from as big as 16/1 earlier in the week should put up a bold bid though lets not forget he couldn’t win this last year from a slightly lower handicap mark. Le Breuil also ran in this last year but lost his chance from the standing start. He’s had his wind tinkered with since his slightly disappointing third in the Becher Chase and along with Red Infantry and Late Romantic have been re-routed here following Catterick’s abandonment on Thursday. Alan King (below) has won this twice in recent years with West End Rocker and Kings d’Argent and is a race he likes to target one at so his 7 year old Notachance looks the most likely winner to me. Raised 7lb for a comfortable Bangor success 66 days ago he’s been given a nice break and trained for this (according to his trainer in this week’s Weekender).
NOTACHANCE 1 point each way 9/2 Paddy Power 1/5 odds 1234
3.15 Market Rasen 2m 125yds mares listed NH Flat race
The interesting runner here has to be the Willie Mullins trained Grangee who impressed when winning quite a modest bumper 83 days ago at Galway in October. Mullins described her afterwards as being pony sized. Mullins came over with a rare runner away from the Festivals to win this event last year impressively with Panic Attack who subsequently joined David Pipe and she must be given plenty of respect. She will however make the market for the smart filly of Pam Sly’s Eileendover – a granddaughter of Sly’s 1000 Guineas winner Speciosa. She’s looked something special in blitzing two bumpers at Huntingdon (good ground, 29 lengths) and Wetherby (soft ground, 16 lengths). Those races were at 1m 5 1/2f and 1m 4 1/2f so she has to prove her stamina but watching the two victories back she most certainly wasn’t stopping at the end of her races. As a 4 year old she also receives a hefty 11lb from Mullins filly who would have to be way above average to beat Pam Sly’s.
EILEENDOVER 2 point win @ 6/4 Bet Victor
3.35 Warwick 3m 1f Handicap Hurdle
A competitive renewal of a Pertemps Qualifier where, as I’m sure we’re all aware to qualify for the Final at Cheltenham in March you need to finish in the first six. Come On Teddy has to be a major player here despite his 7lb rise for his Cheltenham victory, that was gained at the chief expense of On The Blind Side who went on to give the useful McFabulous some sort of race at Kempton. David Pipe’s Kepagge has a big reputation to live up to but disappointed me at Cheltenham on his re-appearance. Last season’s Welsh National winner Potters Corner took a handicap hurdle before winning that prestigious chase last season and considering he races here off of 18lb lower than his chase mark he too could be in the shake up. But the one I like is the Fergal O’Brien trained Imperial Alcazar who was a smart staying novice last season and ran in one of the hottest handicap hurdles of the season when 9th in The Betfair Stayers Handicap Hurdle at Haydock won by Main Fact back in November. Dropped a pound for that he’s all about stamina and I expect a much more prominent run today.
IMPERIAL ALCAZAR 1 point each way @ 7/1 paddy Power 1/5th odds 1234
Fantastic tipping on your part today. Very well done. I just hope you are not right in the 3.15 at M/R as I have backed Grangee for my naps selection today. Try not to mop up everywhere, I beg you
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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:
Difficult day and I have to be brief.
2.40 M/R On The Blind Side. 11/8 when I last looked. Only has had an 8 day break after a tough race last week. Don't like to commit any money on Heavy going either
3.15 M/R Too tight between the top two in the betting to call. Merry Mistress isn't out of it either. I'll pass
1.50 War It is possible that Fiddler On the Roof could beat Next Destination but I'm not betting on either
2.25 War Make Me A Believer I havd had a small wager of £2.30 at 11/2 = poss return of £14.95. Lots of competition but is top rated with Timeform and RPR
3.35 War Too many with chances in this race so I'll pass
4.05 War Gold Bullion 11/8 but has no proven form. Not for me
4.15 Km Global Acclaim 5/4. 7lbs penalty. now racing over 7f instead of 6f (supposed to be better for the extra yardage; I'll let someone else put their faith in that one)
4.45 Km Bint Al Anood. John Gosden horse with at least 2 main competitors so I'll pass at 5/4
5.15 Km Stiletto. Another John Gosden horse with potential. And again at least two others who could come and win. 13/8 not a great price so I'll pass on this one too, even though JG did win the same race last year
Only £2.30 risked today so far and I can't even find a Nap selection thus far
Good luck to all. There should be some exciting racing to watch in any event
Changed my mind on the 3.15 at M/Rasen I am having £6.20 win at 7/4 on Grangee = possible return of £17.05. Also having a small saver bet of £2 at 5.5 = a possible return of £8.82 on Merry Mistress. The market is very strong for the top Timeform rated Eileendover. I will not be gutted if this horse wins but I think that there are stamina doubts about it and Willie Mullins is nobody's fool
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3.15 M/R Grangee one point win at 15/8 with Bet365
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Difficult day and I have to be brief.
2.40 M/R On The Blind Side. 11/8 when I last looked. Only has had an 8 day break after a tough race last week. Don't like to commit any money on Heavy going either
3.15 M/R Too tight between the top two in the betting to call. Merry Mistress isn't out of it either. I'll pass
1.50 War It is possible that Fiddler On the Roof could beat Next Destination but I'm not betting on either
2.25 War Make Me A Believer I havd had a small wager of £2.30 at 11/2 = poss return of £14.95. Lots of competition but is top rated with Timeform and RPR
3.35 War Too many with chances in this race so I'll pass
4.05 War Gold Bullion 11/8 but has no proven form. Not for me
4.15 Km Global Acclaim 5/4. 7lbs penalty. now racing over 7f instead of 6f (supposed to be better for the extra yardage; I'll let someone else put their faith in that one)
4.45 Km Bint Al Anood. John Gosden horse with at least 2 main competitors so I'll pass at 5/4
5.15 Km Stiletto. Another John Gosden horse with potential. And again at least two others who could come and win. 13/8 not a great price so I'll pass on this one too, even though JG did win the same race last year
Only £2.30 risked today so far and I can't even find a Nap selection thus far
Good luck to all. There should be some exciting racing to watch in any event
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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:
Very well done with two winners today. I hope that @Wildgardenmanaged to profit from your second winner. Pity you didn't have the first one as your "Nap" selection so let's hope that Star of St James wins for you? You assuredly deserve it today ?
Well don again. Cracking day for your selections ?
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3 hours ago, roger2256 said:
Jan +15
1pt level stakes win only
13.10 New Melgate Majeure 18/1
13.10 New Ad Libitum 9/1
*13.40 New Just Jean 50/1
*14.40 New Arctic Vega 10/1
Prices as of now b365
* addition
Very well done with two winners today. I hope that @Wildgardenmanaged to profit from your second winner. Pity you didn't have the first one as your "Nap" selection so let's hope that Star of St James wins for you? You assuredly deserve it today ?
- roger2256 and Wildgarden
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Not much to look at today in the graded races with only two meetings going ahead in the UK
2.10 Nc Flying High and Glen Again. Both odds on though there is a little give now for Glen Again at evens. Can't see how to profit from this. There are more tips for Glen Again so I'll pass
3.40 Nc Sir Titus. Have had a £10 win bet at 2.14 = poss profit of £11.14 (best price was evens on Bet365). Graham Lee has chosen this one over Equate. There is money for Sound Reason but I feel that Sir Titus has the best form.
5.30 Sou Mehmento is unraced but is partnered with Hollie Doyle. Currently trading at around 2/1. Open Mystery is fancied and is trading around 9/4. Pina Collada has been tipped up but looks friendless in the market. There are at least two other entrants that look to hold a chance so I'll pass on this race.
6.30 Sou Unleash is a hot favourite to win this with a current best price of 10/11. It ran very well in a class 6 event at 14/1. This is a class 5 event. I am having a small wager of £1.50 on Snow Empress at 15/2 with Betfair. Poss return of £12.75. It looks as though it could show just as much improvement as the favourite at a much better price and without over stretching my betting bank.
Hence on balance Sir Titus looks to be the best bet of the day.
Good luck to all betting today ?
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I was worried for a minute but Sir Titus came through to win quiet comfortably in the end. My outside bet on Snow Empress flopped. However, at least I didn't waste any money on the odds on favourite that got beat. Net winnings of £9.67 today. My new balance is £570.38 (£500 Bank). 14% ROI, can't last can it?
Have to see how it goes tomorrow. Should have more opportunities but need to see if any meetings are cancelled before working anything out
- LEE-GRAYS, Wildgarden and yossa6133
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3.40 Nc Sir Titus one point win at Evens with bet365
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A difficult day for racing today. Catterick is off.
1.50 Bang Fishkhov currently 5/6 to Evens. Favouritism seems to be based on how this horse shaped last time out. Not good enough for me. I have risked £2.30 at 11/2 on Penny For A Pound = Poss return of £14.95
3.20 Bangor The Glancing Queen. It should win. Currently 1/6 So I'll let the pros who can make money on such short priced favourites fill their boots. No bet
1.00 Font Conkwell Legend. Was trading at 2's top 9/4 last night . Now the best price seems to be 5/4. There looks to be at least three other live contenders so using the logic of @richard-westwoodtaking a short price seems to border on lunacy
2.00 Font Umbrigado. should win. However, taking a best of 4/6 where Up The Straight could give it a good run for its money doesn't seem to be a value bet to me. Oddly enough Up The Straight does look to be at a value price. Don't know how @richard-westwoodwould respond to that but I feel that Umbrigado will win so I won't play.
3.00 Font Belle De Manech carries a penalty for its last win and is no world beater imo so taking odds on about its chances doe not look like value to me. I had a small wager on Midnight Ginger but I am trying to lay it for a nil liability as it is completely friendless in the market
4.00 Font Jazz King has apparently hinted at ability and is trading at a best price of 5/2. I can count at least four other live contenders so that is not enough for me to have a bet
4.55 Chelm Trepidation I have bet £6.30 at a generous 7/4 = a possible return of £17.32. I have had a saver of £1.10 at 6/1 on Fact Or Fable which in theory should beat it. Money has come for M Footsteps but I can't see it winning (yet!)
All the rest of the graded races seem to have been stitched up with odds on prices so I'll pass on those
Total stakes £9.70 (excluding me trying to trade out with Midnight Ginger for £2 at 6.0)
Good luck to all sailing today
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4.55 Chelm Trepidation one point win at 7/4 with Betfair
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3 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
I’d probably say so yes. Then you’ve got the moral issue which can play a big part in betting.
Haha, I didn't think that the bookies were highly moral. Not sure what you mean though?
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1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:
You’ll always have horses hidden away in handicap races that are well handicapped and you don’t even know it. Some trainers will get their horse well handicapped for a certain race by running it wrong distance, going it doesn’t like etc etc. Look at those Irish horses that have won the big handicap races at Cheltenham this season. Gordon Elliot is brilliant in handicap races at the Cheltenham festival and always gets his horses to peak for those races by getting them well handicapped in Ireland. At least with graded races you know what you’re getting usually. I prefer working out handicaps, although I’m not very good at it. It’s a skill as you say. I like watching the big graded races. Narrowing down is the key to success. Find your preferred field and away you go. You can get value in graded races but you just don’t win as much.
I realise that you can get better odds and returns with handicap racing, however, it occurs to me that you have to cope with bigger losing runs than the graded races. This being so, doesn't this negate the bigger returns one gets trying to find value bets in handicaps?
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2 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
I think you’ll make a profit doing this, although the odds are much skinnier. I find there’s less work to do and some races a horse will jump straight off the card at you . If I fail to find a bet on Saturday in the handicap races with less than 10 runners then I’ll look at the higher grade races for a selection and just lump my Saturday allowance on it. McFabulous was a horse that jumped off the page at me on Saturday and it won. Never backed it because of odds, but a win is a win, so see how it goes from Saturday.
You are spot on when you say it takes less time to find selection(s) in the non handicap races. I find with handicap racing that there always seems to be two to three live contenders and of course one is always has the nagging and actual doubt, when they win, of a so called no-hoper that comes and wins. I think that one has to possess great skill to win consistently at handicap racing. I have tried it for over a year and am now quite happy to look at fewer races where narrowing down betting oportunites seems far easier. This is despite the skinny odds. If I can make a profit at this I will be very pleased. Many thanks for your thoughts.
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4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
1.00 Plum Here Comes Johnny have had £4 win at 3.9 = £11.37 profit if it wins. Looks like the right distance and the horse has proved itself/ Tallow For Coal has the ratings but is very short a price for its experience thus far
1.30 Plu Natutural History should win this and is in good hands for jumps training with Gary Moore. However, I'm not taking 4/6 about it
2.00 Plu Star Academy looks good. It hasn't won a race yet and was 20/1 last time when finishing a good 3rd. Venetia keeps letting me down of late so I'll pass.
1.40 Leic All closely matched on ratings. Fascinating race. But fascination doesn't pay the bills so I'll pass on that one too
2.10 Leic. Zambella I have manged to get evens for £10 about this horse. Looks to be consistent and has a lot of promise so I'll go for this one. My nap of the day
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I think I've now found my calling with regards to horse racing selections. Stick to the non-handicap races and selections with proven experience where the day's racing conditions most suit. This is still no cake-walk as the bookies shorten up prices on these selections/races so as to try and make a profit come what may. Anyway, two selections and two winners today so I'll sit on my laurels for the rest of the day.
£14.00 outlay and £35.37 return hence a £21.37 profit for the day. This means a new betting balance of £555.46 (Bank £500).
Looks like some more opportunities tomorrow
- Villa Chris, BBBC and Wildgarden
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2 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:
yes at moment not much to do took early retirement like to find a few outsiders lol
I think that the problem with systematically backing outsiders is running a betting bank that sees one through the inevitable long losing runs. For what it's worth I feel that you should exclude all the non-handicap races. However, do as you feel you should and the very best of luck to you
Racing Chat - Monday 18th January
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Well Everyday Champagne did beat its stable mate, unfortunately three other horses finished in front of it. Dismal performance for the champion jockey.
Lost £6 so my balance is now £538.97 (Bank £500). On a bad run atm will try to make up for it
A couple of possible graded races to consider tomorrow.