i1_principe

Sheffield Utd v Leicester- Leicester to win at 2.25 with Bet365
Sheffield started the new campaign very well, earning 4 points in their first 2 games against Bournemouth and Palace. As newcomers to the league I don't think they will be able to keep a high level for a long time and I expect that they will have a difficult time in the next match. Leicester scored 2 straight draws against solid teams such as Wolves and Chelsea, but for a team with their ambitions they should look to win as their opponent is comfortable enough.

Tiafoe to beat Hurkacz at 2.06 with Pinnacle
Tiafoe did not finish any of his two games so far in the tournament against Krajinovic and Chardy after his opponents retired, but it should be noted that he had an advantage in both matches.  Hurkacz also did not finish his last game after Lopes retired and before that he had a difficult win with 2-1 set against Korean Lee. Hurkacz has been making a lot of progress this year, but Tiafoe is playing at home and has also won both his matches against the Pole, which makes me think he will have a slight advantage in this match.

Tiafoe to beat Hurkacz at 2.06 with Pinnacle
Tiafoe did not finish any of his two games so far in the tournament against Krajinovic and Chardy after his opponents retired, but it should be noted that he had an advantage in both matches.  Hurkacz also did not finish his last game after Lopes retired and before that he had a difficult win with 2-1 set against Korean Lee. Hurkacz has been making a lot of progress this year, but Tiafoe is playing at home and has also won both his matches against the Pole, which makes me think he will have a slight advantage in this match.

Tiafoe to beat Hurkacz at 2.06 with Pinnacle
Tiafoe did not finish any of his two games so far in the tournament against Krajinovic and Chardy after his opponents retired, but it should be noted that he had an advantage in both matches.  Hurkacz also did not finish his last game after Lopes retired and before that he had a difficult win with 2-1 set against Korean Lee. Hurkacz has been making a lot of progress this year, but Tiafoe is playing at home and has also won both his matches against the Pole, which makes me think he will have a slight advantage in this match.

Crystal Palace vs Everton: Everton to win
Selhurst Park is the smallest Premiership stadium in London and typically teams visiting Crystal Palace have a walk in the park. Last season Palace didn’t score a goal in front of their own fans until the end of October and they didn’t win at home until December. They only scored 19 goals in their own ground all season and five of them (26%) came in their 5-3 win over Bournemouth on the final day of the season.
Crystal Palace have won only 1 game out of 10 matches at home in the Premiership vs Everton and that happened 25 years ago. Everton won 5 games and the other 4 matches at Selhurst Park ended as ties.
Roy Hodgson is the current favourite to be the first sacked manager in the Premiership and he is facing one of his least favourite opponents in the first round of the season as Everton have beaten teams led by Hodgson 10 out of 17 times.
Palace's player of 18/19 season - Wan Bissaka went to Manchester United, Michy Batshuayi returned to Chelsea and their star upfront Zaha wanted to force a move out of the club till deadline day. Lack of incoming quality transfers with only 7.6 million EUR spent and Gary Cahill coming for free suggests Palace may fall short of last year's results.
Meanwhile, Everton reinforced almost all positions of their squad and only lost 1 key player - Idrissa Guye, who may have been very good defensively but some pundits reckon he did not add anything to the team's attacking play. Everton did manage to replace Guye with the defensive midfielder Gbambin from Mainz that can even score goals and added one of Europe's hottest young talents - Moise Kean from Juventus.
All in all it seems justified that the odds for Everton have shortened from 2.6 to 2.37 on bet365 since @StevieDay1983 opened this topic few weeks ago and I am happy to back them as well.
 
 

Guido Pella to beat Radu Albot at 1.72 with Bet365
Pella certainly looked a bit better than Albot yesterday and I rate him as the better player as well, he really has gone on a roll with those Wimbledon performances and now has a chance to get some serious ranking points against beatable opposition. He was unlucky to run into the red-hot Schwartzman last week, but this should be easier, perhaps even easier than Goffin.

I’m in! 

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Hugo Dellien at 2.00 with William Hill
While I do understand the reasons for Basilashvili being the underdog in this one, I don't really agree with them. Basilashvili is still the classier player of the two and he's the defending champion, so I think that he's going to be prepared for the event after taking a break after Wimbledon. Dellien is having an excellent season in terms of win and losses, but most of his successes came on the lower level and he's had some weak performances recently, so I'd have Nikoloz as the favorite here and I'm quite surprised that we're getting evens for him.

Novak Djokovic vs H Hurkacz, over 27.5 games, @1.917 with Pinnacle
Novak never enjoyed playing vs. tall players with big serve, I expect less break points than vs. Kudla. Also, the Serb is not fully focused in the first week of the Slams. 
I'm not sure that Hubert will snitch a set however, fully expect for him to cover the not so high line. 
D. Medvedev vs D. Goffin, Goffin @1.909 with Pinnacle
I really rate Goffin on grass surface more than Medvedev, as also stated here, his movement doesn't look good at this surface. Goffin had a brilliant grass season so far, losing only from Federer in Halle and Mannarino. Also, the odds movement suggest me that it is a good bet (odds have dropped on David from 2.2 to 1.9 at Bet365). 
Let's go! ?
P. S. Personally, I see value also with Kachanov and Fabianno today... 

My picks for the day
Vesely to beat Paire.Paire is yet to face any serious competition so far in the tournament beating Londero who prefers clay,Kecmanovic retired with injury.I don't understand why Jiri is the underdog here and none of his victories have been flukes.
Fabbiano to beat Verdasco.Two men in form Verdasco more so after coming back to clean Edwards on his home tournament.Verdasco who's had a history of chocking has had a quite consistent year with good performances including wins over Khachanov (twice ) and Thiem albeit over clay.I say it's a toss up with maybe Fabbiano edging over past slightly.
I'd avoid Anderson  vs Pella which smells of an upset.Anderson is the favourite and rightly so but Pella is motivated and has managed to pull some unexpected wins on grass.This tournament is no stranger to upsets.

Nicolas Jarry to beat Andreas Seppi at 1.96 with Unibet
Nico is the better player of these two right now and he showed some good stuff on grass lately. He also beat Andreas the only time they've met in Winston Salem on hardcourt last season.

Couple matches that I like from the first round:
L.Mayer to beat E.Gulbis @ 1.87 (Bethard) (Medium stakes)
Ernests' form has been terrible for almost the whole season. The Latvian has won only 4 of the last 21 matches he has played since the beginning of February. Gulbis managed to get to the 4th round here last year, but I just cannot see that happening with the kind of form he has at the moment. Grass might not be Mayer's favorite surface, but the Argentinian is quite clearly in better form at the moment.
J.Thompson to beat N.Kyrgios @ 3.07 (Pinnacle) (Small stakes)
It seems like Nicky isn't happy with the way he is playing at the moment. He basically gave the match away against FAA in Queen's. Of course Kyrgios has the talent when he is really fighting for every ball like he did in Acapulco in March. Still, the odds on this match seem good enough to me for a small punt, Thompson is in good form and comfortable playing on grass.
K.Edmund -6 games against J.Munar @ 1.99 (Pinnacle) (Medium stakes)
Munar is clearly out of form (hasn't won a match since May) and he also mainly prefers clay courts. Edmund is much more comfortable on grass and in better form, so I think Kyle has a great chance to win with this handicap.
 

Querrey to beat Thiem at 2.20 with Bet365
Thiem does not like the grass courts and his performance in recent years is indicative. This year he only played 1 match and lost from Jarry at the Hurlingham Exhibition. On the previous Wimbledon he lost in the first round from Baghdatis and before that he was defeated by Sugita in Hale. Querrey was out of the courts for a long time, but on his return he reached the final in Eastbourne. He feels much more comfortable on grass and it will not be a big surprise if he wins here.

The third Grand Slam of the season is here and the one thing that I have to say straight away is that I would be shocked to see Nadal take it. He was pretty crap during the exhibitions, he's been handed a tough draw, and his health is always an issue during these short turnovers, so I think that he isn't going to lift the trophy. Not a big prediction, I know, but there you go. You know my form going into this tournament, but I was asked to write a preview and that's always a good motivation for some research, so yeah.
On the men's side of things, I find it really hard to see past either Djokovic or Federer, as it simply seems that the rest of the competition has fallen away in recent times and that there aren't any serious challengers. Someone with a big serve and good hitting can take them out, of course, that's just the nature of grass courts, but I don't know who's it gonna be and I don't really have all that much to add in terms of outrights. Betting-wise, I'm going to back Wawrinka to go further than Isner, as they have fairly similar draws in terms of difficulty and as Isner has been out of the game for so long that he's way more likely to suffer an upset somewhere along the way.
The women's side of things is completely open despite the obvious dominance of Ashleigh Barty. The pressure is going to be heavier than ever before, however, so I'm not too keen on backing her at what really are short odds for such a long tournament in which anything can happen. The only thing that I'm taking is Halep to go further than Konta, I just don't trust the latter at all at the moment. I will be watching things closely and I might play something mid-tournament, but I just don't see anything straight away. And yeah - don't back Kvitova, she might not even turn up for health reasons (there should be a press conference about that tomorrow as far as I know).
In terms of match betting, I am going for way too much and I'm actually surprised that things have turned out that way, as I didn't really see all that much when I first got around to check the early odds. Hoping for a good run, but my confidence is obviously quite low at the moment and I guess that I would just sigh if all the below lose.
First, I'm backing Rebecca Peterson to beat Yanina Wickmayer, as I think that she's a level above her quality-wise. The good qualifying run Wickmayer had doesn't change a thing considering the level of players she faced there and I think that she simply isn't good enough to compete on the main level anymore. Something similar can then be said about CSN, who'll be facing the resurgent Stosur that was surprisingly good in recent days. 
Eugenie Bouchard is spending way too much time modeling these days and her two recent matches were truly awful, so I'm taking the much-more-hard-working Zidansek there. Only a big trip down the memory lane can win this for Bouchard and that isn't all that likely to happen (although it can't be ruled out completely). Martic, Alexandrova, and Hercog are then my form picks over Brady, Siniakova, and Kuzmova.
In the men's section, I like both Garin and Schwartzman despite their obvious clay court preferences. They are both facing out-of-form opponents that have very little to offer by the looks of things nowadays. Fritz should also be able to deal with Berdych, who has been out of the game for quite some time and who didn't impress during the exhibitions, while Sonego should beat Granollers as well if he recovers from Antalya, which he honestly should with at least a day off. Finally, I'm also going for one long odds on Klizan against Chardy, as I don't think that he deserves to be a 4.00 shot in a match that could be easily decided by who's going to be missing less on the day.
Good luck everyone - and take care!
Back Stanislas Wawrinka (vs. Isner) at 1.72 with Bet365
Back Simona Halep (vs. Konta) at 1.72 with Bet365
Back Rebecca Peterson to beat Yanina Wickmayer at 1.67 with William Hill
Back Samantha Stosur to beat Carla Suarez-Navarro at 1.79 with Pinnacle
Back Tamara Zidansek (-2.5) to beat Eugenie Bouchard at 1.91 with Pinnacle
Back Petra Martic (-3.5) to beat Jennifer Brady at 1.84 with Pinnacle
Back Ekaterina Alexandrova to beat Katerina Siniakova at 1.73 with William Hill
Back Polona Hercog to beat Viktoria Kuzmova at 1.96 with Unibet
Back Diego Schwartzman (-1.5 sets) to beat Matthew Ebden at 2.10 with Sbobet
Back Taylor Fritz to beat Tomas Berdych at 1.66 with Bet365
Back Christian Garin (-1.5 sets) to beat Andrey Rublev at 2.00 with Unibet
Back Martin Klizan to beat Jeremy Chardy at 3.91 with Pinnacle
Back Lorenzo Sonego to beat Marcel Granollers at 1.77 with Pinnacle

Querrey to beat Thiem at 2.20 with Bet365
Thiem does not like the grass courts and his performance in recent years is indicative. This year he only played 1 match and lost from Jarry at the Hurlingham Exhibition. On the previous Wimbledon he lost in the first round from Baghdatis and before that he was defeated by Sugita in Hale. Querrey was out of the courts for a long time, but on his return he reached the final in Eastbourne. He feels much more comfortable on grass and it will not be a big surprise if he wins here.

Colombia vs Chile
It is arguably the biggest game of the 2019 Copa America Quarter-Finals coming up at midnight BST tonight when Colombia play Chile at the Arena Corinthians in Sao Paulo. Both sides have looked in excellent form so far but one of them will be eliminated prematurely.
Colombia topped their group with 9 points after successfully seeing off Argentina, Qatar, and Paraguay. What is even more impressive is the fact that Carlos Queiroz has managed to turn this Colombian side into one of the most defensively astute sides in the tournament. Three group games and three clean sheets. It is now five games without conceding a goal for Colombia.
Chile might not have managed to win all three games in their group but Reinaldo Rueda's team still look an attractive side. Two wins from their first two group games against Japan and Ecuador were sealed with relative comfort. The narrow 1-0 loss to Uruguay wasn't exactly a surprise and it did take 82 minutes of combative football before the two sides were separated by Edinson Cavani's only goal.
These two sides have long been my two favourite sides in South American football. I've been a fan of the Colombians ever since I saw Carlos Valderrama play in the 1990 World Cup and then the tragedy of Andres Escobar at the 1994 World Cup. Chile have played some fantastic football over recent years to win my admiration. It's a shame one has to leave the tournament here but I think we could see the Colombian defensive unit see them through again with a tight one goal win.
Colombia to Win @ 2.27 with MarathonBet
Draw HT/ Colombia FT @ 5.10 with Unibet

Venezuela vs Argentina
The 2019 Copa America Quarter-Finals continue tonight at 8pm BST when Venezuela take on Argentina at the Estadio do Maracana in Rio de Janeiro. It was a lucky escape for Brazil last night after they squeezed through 4-3 on penalties against Paraguay. Their arch rivals Argentina will be hoping to make easier work of their opponents here.
Venezuela have enjoyed a productive tournament so far. The Group A runners-up qualified for the last 8 unbeaten during the group phase. Rafael Dudamel's men secured two 0-0 draws against Peru and Brazil before defeating Bolivia 3-1 in their final group game. It means they have exceeded expectations and pose a potentially dangerous proposition for Argentina here.
Argentina are stumbling through this tournament. Lionel Scaloni's side look far away from the side they should be. A 2-0 loss to Colombia was followed by a 1-1 draw against Paraguay. It was only a hard-fought 2-0 win over Qatar that sparred their blushes. You have to say, if there was going to be an upset in this competition then it could come in this game.
I said in their last game that I felt uncomfortable backing Argentina right now. For all their talented riches they are disjointed, short on ideas, and unable to play a cohesive style of play. It looks like they are being poorly managed to be honest. I appreciate it's not the most likely outcome but I really fancy Venezuela to cause a shock here. I can see La Vinotinto potentially taking this game to penalties.
Venezuela Double Chance @ 2.60 with MarathonBet
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.80 with Bet365

Kecmanovic to beat Thompson - 2.40 with Sportingbet
I've been greatly impressed with how Kecmanovic has played in this tournament- he hasn't dropped a set yet. He also beat Thompson in 2018 (although on a hard court).

Miomir Kecmanovic to beat (-1.5 sets) Victor Troicki at 3.00 with Betfair
After seeing Miomir playing today I can easily say this serbian clash will be won by Miomir in two. There's a gulf in class between these two players right now. The second serve is where Victor loses many points by doing lots of errors while Miomir is better on his second serve and it should show in this match.

Parlay at 5.22 with Betfair
After some thinking I've decided to go for this parlay.
Miomir Kecmanovic to beat Ugo Humbert at 1.80
Can't see any way Ugo turns around and suddenly plays good tennis again right now so I have to give Miomir a try prematch.
Benoit Paire to beat (-1.5 sets) Victor Troicki at 2.90
I don't get it here, what's up with the price? Benoit ranked 32, Victor 193, they met one time before and it was in Stuttgart 2017 on grass ofcourse and Benoit won 6-4 6-4 so what's changed since then? Benoit has become better with two titles this season on clay. Can't see how he's supposed to lose a set here. Victor got outclassed in the Surbiton challenger final by Dan Evans recently and I don't see why Benoit couldn't do the same. Victor isn't exactly playing on top level anymore even if he reached the Surbiton final.

Munar to beat Kecmanovic at 2.33 with Marathonbet
Neither of the two players has grass success and it is a little surprising to me that Kecmanovic is considered the favorite. Munar showed good tennis on this surface last week against Coric as he was even close to winning the 1st set.  Kecmanovic also performed well against Khachanov as lucky looser, but it is hardly a reason to be considered a favorite here. As I said these players do not play on their preferred surface and for me the odds should be more equal. I do not see any significant advantage for the Serb and 2.33 seems to be a good enough odd to play.

I think it's time for Berrettini to call it a day. He's been brilliant lately, but I think Goffin is smart and skilled enough to defeat him. Also, Goffin's profile is somewhat similar to Simon (who beat weaker version of Berrettini 3:0 in Wimbledon last year), also Seppi has made most problems for Mateo and Goffin is able to perform in Seppi's style and in better way overall.
Goffin beat tall strong server with average movement on grass - A. Zverev yesterday - and it's a great way to be prepared for Berrettini.
I was on Seppi, I gotta be on Goffin. You can find him @2,70 Unibet and it's much worth it IMO.

DR Congo vs Uganda
It is matches like this that us neutrals live for in the Africa Cup of Nations where one side of familiar names faces a side packed with unfamiliar players. DR Congo and Uganda are those two teams here and they kick-off at 3:30pm BST on Saturday afternoon from the Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.
DR Congo have long been a team that have flattered to deceive. A number of times they have looked like going all the way in this tournament or qualifying for a World Cup only to see things unravel near the death. Florent Ibenge's side will be looking to lay those ghosts to rest this year. DR Congo have won the tournament twice before in 1968 and 1974 so it's high time they delivered another decent performance. Narrowly missing out on the 2018 World Cup will still be hurting a few of the older players who saw it as a last chance but they can gain some salvation here.
Uganda are an unknown quantity coming into this year's competition. After qualifying in 2017 to end a 29 year absence from the tournament they qualified for this year's edition by topping their group. Head coach Sebastien Desabre will be hoping to build on his team's awesome defensive displays recently. Just 1 defeat in their last 10 matches has also seen the Cranes concede just 1 goal during those 10 games.
If you're looking for recognisable names then DR Congo have their fair share. The likes of West Ham's Arthur Masuaku, Porto's Chancel Mbemba, Kilmarnock's Youssouf Mulumbu, Birmingham's Jacques Maghoma, Anderlecht's Yannick Bolasie, and Nottingham Forest's Britt Assombalonga are all names fans of European football will know. Uganda lack such heavyweight names. Striker Emmanuel Okwi has scored 21 goals in 71 caps and midfielder Farouk Miya has bagged 22 goals in 59 caps. Yeovil Town supporters will also recognise defender Bevis Mugabi.
My gut instinct tells me to back a DR Congo win. Uganda have shown under Desabre that they're an organised defensive unit so they'll be tough to break. You compare the two sides and there's no match in terms of calibre. DR Congo really should win this comfortably but opening game nerves could see them struggle to a one goal win.
DR Congo to Win @ 2.20 with Unibet
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.59 with MarathonBet

Egypt vs Zimbabwe
The 2019 Africa Cup of Nations kicks off this evening with host nation Egypt facing group underdogs Zimbabwe in a 9pm BST kick-off at the Cairo International Stadium in Cairo. Can the Pharaohs make it a record-breaking 8th win in this competition or will we see an opening day upset?
Egypt come into this tournament as the firm favourites. Javier Aguirre's side are on home turf and boast one of the top African talents in Mohamed Salah. The form of the host nation is also decent coming into this first game of the tournament with just 1 defeat in their last 8 matches. Mexican Aguirre has experience of winning an international after guiding Mexico to the 2009 CONCACAF Gold Cup.
Zimbabwe are more renowned for their cricket and Robert Mugabe than their football. Bruce Grobbelaar and Peter Ndlovu are two of the more famous alumni from the national team but the current squad is severely lacking such players. This will be just their 4th appearance in the tournament and they have so far failed to get past the group stage. That being said, Sunday Chidzambwa's men come into this game in decent form unbeaten in their last four matches with three clean sheets.
Everything is pointing at a solid win for the home nation in this opening game. Zimbabwe will be hoping to keep the score down and build on recent positive results earned against the likes of Congo, Comoros, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Egypt are a different prospect altogether. The only thing that will hold Egypt back is nerves. I think a 2-0 win for Egypt seems like the most likely outcome.
Egypt HT/FT @ 1.85 with Ladbrokes
Egypt to Win to Nil @ 1.70 with BetVictor

Peru vs Brazil
We enter the final round of group games in Group A with the unthinkable potentially happening. Peru play Brazil in an 8pm BST kick-off on Saturday night at the Arena Corinthians in Sao Paulo with the losers possibly missing out on a Quarter-Finals spot... and that does include the host nation.
Peru were disappointed with their 0-0 draw against Venezuela but hit back in their second group game with that superb 3-1 demolition of Bolivia. Head coach Ricardo Gareca will hope his side have done enough to reach the last 8 but they'll want to do what they can to eradicate the need to wait on other results. It is a tall order asking them to beat the home nation in their own back yard though.
Brazil were booed by their own fans after the 3-0 win against Bolivia. Clearly, that had a detrimental impact on Brazil's players as they struggled to a 0-0 draw against Venezuela. Tite will demand more from his players with nothing other than a victory being acceptable. Have the Brazilians already shown they don't have the necessary qualities to be challengers for the trophy here though? Even on home soil?
I'm gutted that Brazil played so poorly against Venezuela. I backed them to navigate their way through this group with relative ease but they've already shown big problems. I still think they'll end on a high and take all three points here. Brazil have won 11 of the past 15 meetings with Peru so the head-to-head is in their favour. Peru are a big challenge though and we could see an exciting finale in this game.
Brazil HT/FT @ 2.05 with Ladbrokes
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.90 with Marathonbet