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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - June 24 - June 30

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Saisai Zheng (+1.5 sets) to beat Marketa Vondrousova at 2.15 with Boylesports

Although Barty seems to be doing just fine after the Grand Slam success, I'm not so sure that this is going to be the case with Vondrousova as well. First, she's never done well on grass, going 0-3 in 2018 and 3-3 in 2017. Second, she left Paris with something worse than Barty and I therefore wouldn't be surprised to see her being clouded by the bad finals performance for some time, as has happened to many players before. Zheng isn't a particularly big threat and that's why I'm staying with the set handicap, but she looked reasonable against Stosur and she'll have the extra motivation of facing a GS finalist, so I fancy her to get something from the match.

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Jack Draper to beat Yasutaka Uchiyama at 3.00 with BetVictor

Taking this early, I'd have this at 2.30 or so honestly. Uchiyama has never done anything on grass, while Draper is a bright UK prospect that's been enjoying plenty of WCs and such in recent weeks, having converted them into three good performances against solid players. Losing to Evans and Bublik is no shame and Uchiyama is a step down from those, so I fancy the local talent to open his Wimbledon qualifying account tomorrow.

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Jason Kubler to beat Henri Laaksonen at 2.60 with BetVictor

I obviously don't want to start another week with 0-3 and taking three underdog bets isn't the best recipe for that I guess, but here we go, I do fancy Kubler at these odds. Laaksonen never plays on grass aside from Wimbledon and this year has been no different so far, with him preferring clay over grass even in the most recent weeks. Kubler failed me against Ito, but, to be fair, that match was played in different conditions than was advertised. He's produced two reasonable performances since then and is certainly more primed than the guy from Switzerland who's never had a particularly stellar serve.

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James Ward to beat Thomas Fabbiano at 1.67 with Sbobet

Certainly fancy Ward in this spot after he stormed through the qualifiers while beating two very decent opponents and doing well even the week before. Fabbiano has done quite a few nice things on grass before and he's certainly not a clay court specialist, but his recent results don't suggest that he's particularly strong.

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K. Flipkens to beat C. Wozniacki, Pinnacle @2.62

I am going against mine favourite female tennis player, all because of the injuries (back and left leg). Otherwise, I would be backing Caro at any time vs Kirsten. 

I expect that even if Caro win the first set, Flipkens eventually win due to lack of matches (and wins) from the Dane. 

🍺

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Svitoliva is 5.00 to come back against Cornet on bet365.

Set and a break down with play ended for the day because of rain. Both players have awful records in this tournament and both are pretty poor on grass too. But i just feel the suspended play will help Svitolina regroup and come back tomorrow with a much better performance which she is very capable of.

Edited by Gully_22

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If anyone saw how Jeremy Chardy played the first few points against Cam Norrie you shouldn't back him to come back in the set or the match because it's likely to continue. When Jeremy has started his rott the rott is likely to continue for the rest of the match. The guy is having trouble turning performances around and he's also lost to Cam once before on hard last season in Atlanta and his record isn't anything special in Eastbourne. Last time 2017 he went out in first round to Dusan Lajovic, he did reach the quarter once after beating dr. Ivo and a clay courter but lost the quarter in straights to Feli Lopez. Cam Norrie is exactly the type of player Jeremy doesn't matchup well with because of Cams reasonably big serve and good movement on court. Added that Jeremy is making tons of unforced doesn't make it any better.

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Any thoughts on today's Wimbledon Brown vs Ymer with Brown valued at 1.50? With Brown recent performance at Stuttgart reaching QF (winning Zverev also) and almost beating FAA and playing on his far the favorite surface he should overcome Ymer.

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It's tomorrow I think. Yeah, Brown should certainly win on paper, but, for me, it's always easier to trust him against better players at large odds than against worse or similar players at small odds. He's one of those players who can produce upsets both ways on their own.

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What a performance from Ward there, dominating from the start and then coming down like a house of cards. Can't say I like a great deal from tomorrow's card, the only pick that I'm going to go for is Smith to beat Caruso at 1.71 with Pinnacle based on Smith's good performances against the in-form Rosol and Mahut.

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Ugos quarterfinal match in Ilkley already told me exactly where he's at. He got dominated by Dominik Koepfer in a really bad display, too mutch misfiring for my liking. Miomir has played on the higher level lately.

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Just now, CzechPunter said:

Then Miomir is value tomorrow?

Yes I think so but maybe Ugo has turned around his bad performance on grass. I mean did you see how he got bageled by Victor Troicki in Surbiton? Ugo is like a joke right now. He almost can't hit a ball without missing the court.

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But one thing I don't like is the 1.80-1.83 price on Miomir as he could easily lose the match also so I think it's best to stand by and wait for the match to start and then look at how Ugo is performing and if his game is looking dreadful like in Ilkley he loses again. Dominik Koepfer played a good match in Ilkley when he beat Ugo but it's the way Ugo played that makes me wonder what he's gonna do to turn that form around. His confidence can't be sky high exactly after losing so many matches past two months.

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Parlay at 5.22 with Betfair

After some thinking I've decided to go for this parlay.

Miomir Kecmanovic to beat Ugo Humbert at 1.80

Can't see any way Ugo turns around and suddenly plays good tennis again right now so I have to give Miomir a try prematch.

Benoit Paire to beat (-1.5 sets) Victor Troicki at 2.90

I don't get it here, what's up with the price? Benoit ranked 32, Victor 193, they met one time before and it was in Stuttgart 2017 on grass ofcourse and Benoit won 6-4 6-4 so what's changed since then? Benoit has become better with two titles this season on clay. Can't see how he's supposed to lose a set here. Victor got outclassed in the Surbiton challenger final by Dan Evans recently and I don't see why Benoit couldn't do the same. Victor isn't exactly playing on top level anymore even if he reached the Surbiton final.

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2 hours ago, South_African_Punter said:

The obvious reason for the high odds around Paire is because of the inherent uncertainty about how long he wants to stay in the tournament given the grand slam next week. Also it's Paire, who is quite a temperamental player.

And you care about that even though Benoit won the Lyon title before Roland Garros? And the temperament, is that anything to care about? I don't really get what's up with the price on Benoit and you can't go around and say that it's a GS soon and oh he's got such a temperament so he will lose 50% of his matches even when he meets a guy like Vic Troicki. Sorry I don't buy whatever you're trying to say here.

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Sam Querrey vs Dusan Lajovic, Dusan +2.5games @2.2 Bet365

Great price on games handicap on Dusan IMO. Sam played the first match in Eastbourne after April (Houston), so really don't rate him as so big favorite. Dusan played nice matches in FO, after loosing 3:2 from Zverev A. Although this is grass surface, and is definitely more suitable for Sam, the Serb could lose 76 76 and still the bet would be good. 

Their last encounter was stopped at 2:2 in sets in AO'16 with Sam retired after fourth set. 

At this price, I would gladly take this bet. 

 

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