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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - June 17 - June 23

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Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Matteo Berrettini at 3.50 with Bet365

Benoit Paire to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 3.00 with William Hill

Cameron Norrie to beat Kevin Anderson at 3.50 with Unibet

Alright, going with some underdogs in the first round next week, as I just like the odds honestly despite my really poor record on grass so far in this season. Berretini had a long week before Halle and Basilashvili is the type of a player who's always dangerous as an underdog, no reason to have him at 3.50 imo. Paire, on the other hand, has been better than Tsonga all year long and Tsonga didn't really impress me against Raonic, so, again, no reason to have him as such a big underdog I'd say. Finally, I'm also going to go for something even more speculative and back Norrie against Anderson, who's returning to the game after three months of absence. The South African is obviously the much better player of the two on grass, but Norrie will be at home and with more match fitness as well, so I think that there's some value in backing him for the upset.

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Parlay at 16.04 with Unibet

Viktoria Kuzmova to beat Maria Sharapova at 1.84

Masha only gets this price that she's got in this match because of her name but she hasn't played a competitive match since she played in St. Petersburg and withdrew from the tournament prior to the quarterfinals.

Denis Shapovalov to beat JMDP at 2.60

Denis has beaten JMDP before and now Juan Martin hasn't played on grass yet so it will be his first match and it's a difficult one on paper.

Cam Norrie to beat Kevin Anderson at 3.35

Like @CzechPunter I'm on Cam for the upset here since Kev hasn't played a lot of competitive matches this season and Cam has somewhat of an advantage of having played a lot and owns homecourt advantage here.

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Scott Griekspoor to beat Facundo Mena at 2.33 with Pinnacle

No reason to have Scott as an underdog in this match. He's the reigning Blois champion and he often delivers good results at home in Netherlands and in France. Last season he even beat Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-4 6-4 in the final so he can play some very high quality tennis the older brother of Tallon Griekspoor.

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J.Sousa to beat H.Hurkacz at 2.37 with Pinnacle

I do not see Hurkacz as a big favorite here, he is neither in very good form nor has a great experience on this surface. He played only 4 matches on the grass and lost 2 of them on ATP level. Sousa is quite inconsistent in his performance, but he has more experience on the green surface and has already played 3 games, winning 2 of them. I think the Portuguese should have a slight advantage, and the odd 2.37 seems like a good bet.

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Dzumhur (+1,5 sets) to beat Khachanov at 2.47 with Pinnacle

Surprisingly Dzumhur plays well on the grass. Last year he won the title in Antalya, and here in Halle he was eliminated by G.Dimitrov, but he managed to take a set. The interesting thing is that in most of the Bosnian grass matches he managed to win a set and he rarely lost in recent years without winning a set. Khachanov has a lot of dropouts in the 1st round this year and I personally will not be surprised if this match is closer than the odds suggest.

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Does anybody know why Dimitrov's odds are rising against Auger-Aliassime? I know FAA had a great tournament in Stuttgart and this is Dimitrov's season opener on grass, but still. This kind of odds drifting could suggest that Grisha has a some kind of injury even?

..oh and yes, I have betted Dimitrov to beat Auger-Aliassime on this match because of the long week that FAA had in Stuttgart (and he has to travel to London too). Interesting to see what happens.

Edited by Judeksi

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2 hours ago, Judeksi said:

Does anybody know why Dimitrov's odds are rising against Auger-Aliassime? I know FAA had a great tournament in Stuttgart and this is Dimitrov's season opener on grass, but still. This kind of odds drifting could suggest that Grisha has a some kind of injury even?

..oh and yes, I have betted Dimitrov to beat Auger-Aliassime on this match because of the long week that FAA had in Stuttgart (and he has to travel to London too). Interesting to see what happens.

Because that long week in Stuttgart you're talking about is probably not so long after all and FAA is a better player than Grigor right now so I don't see why you're betting on the bulgarian.

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12 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Sascha Bublik to beat Diego Schwartzman at 1.75 with Coolbet

Diego hates grass, it's his worst part of the season and Sascha has his big serve that comes to good use on grass and he came through qualies nicely.

:puke

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Pella (+1,5 sets) to beat Goffin at 1,93 with Pinnacle

Goffin is very far from his best days and I personally do not believe him when he's a big favorite. OK, he won 2 games last week, but he allowed it to be turned from Manarino, which is indicative of his shape. Of course, Pella is not a grass specialist, but last year he won against Cilic on Wimbledon, so on a good day he could be dangerous on this surface. I think he can win at least a set here.

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19 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Sascha Bublik to beat Diego Schwartzman at 1.75 with Coolbet

Diego hates grass, it's his worst part of the season and Sascha has his big serve that comes to good use on grass and he came through qualies nicely.

Bublik is the most suspicious player (edited) of the top 100, by far. Be careful with him for the next time.

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11 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

No accusations without evidence please - or we could get in trouble :$. Just say something more neutral.

Sorry @CzechPunter, english is not my native language and sometimes I do not express correctly my thoughts. What i tried to say is that Bublik is one of the most irregular players of the Top 100. 

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Well Sascha Bublik is a bit of a show off with his underarm serves and his style is reminding of Nick Kyrgios... Very mentally fragile player from what I've seen so far. Prone to awful mistakes like when trying to chip the ball over the net from the easiest position and not even makeing it. He was a joke in his match against Diego Schwartzman. Got outplayed by a clayspecialist on grass where he is supposed to be good.

Avoiding that guy from now on because his game is looking terrible...

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Djere (+1,5 sets) to beat Struff at 2.48 with Pinnacle

I will try another unpopular bet, Jere has only 2 matches on the grass and has lost both of them. The Serb has made tremendous progress this year, he has a big service and I expect to be strong on this surface. FAA and Kecmanovic also did not have much success on grass, but played quite good matches. Struff reached the semi-final in Stuttgart last week and may be a little tired. It is good to note that so far he has not passed the first round in Halle and has 9 losses. 

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oh!, hello my friends.

Yesterday we have very tough matches for betting... but today everything is more reliable in my opinion..

I got 3 bets that could be interesting..:

1. Struff wins 2-0 vs Djere + Federer Wins 2-0 vs Millman (@2.0 Bet 365).

2. Evans Wins a set + Fucsovics Wins a set (@2.073 Bet 365)

3. Berrettini Wins a set + Auger Wins a set + Bautista Wins a set (@2.086 Bet 365)

 

Why I'm picking this bets?.

Well, Struff is playing the best tenis of his career getting nice results last week in Stuttgart, loosing against the Champ... (and is playing grass in his country), vs Djere who already play only 2 oficial grass matches in his entire life, he has not experience in this kind of surface. Then, I think I dont have to explain why im betting for Roger (you know what happen when he play just well in grass)..
Then, Evans allready won 2 challengers in grass this year, with a record of 10 of 10 and is playing at home, with his people, is facing Stan Wawrinka a complete alergic to this kind of surface, is the first match of stan in grass this year, and he has a lot of problems trying to train due the weather last weeks... so, I think at least, Evans will win a set...
Fucsovics is facing an specialist of grass, the spanish López (champion in 2017), but Feliciano is getting old, and thesedays is the shadow of his good mood. Fucsovics its playing really great tennis, and, looking the odds, its worth to take that chance.

Then, the best surface for spanians is clay, but it is not for Bautista, he loves the grass, and is gonna play agains Fritz how is lack of experience in this surface, we are asking just for 1 set for Bautista, as well as 1 set for Berrettini (it is no recomended to bet for a recent champ, but Basilashvili winning in 2 sets???, i dont think soo)... And the last match is FAA against Dimitrov.. (the odds are really a joke, considering the lack of confidence of the Bulgarian in the last year...)... If the canadian plays just good as the last tournament, he will get a set againts Dimitrov... its a fact...
 

Well, have a good day!.- 
PD: my english is a mess, sorry about that.
 

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Struff to beat Khachanov at 2 with Unibet

I was impressed today’s performance of Struff and his victory over Djere. He obviously continues his good performance from last week when he played the semi-final in Stuttgart. In the way he serves I think it will be very difficult to break through.  Khachanov had some difficulties against Kecmanovic, but he still won. Struff looks more solid at the moment and he has a slight advantage here.

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Adrian Mannarino to beat Nick Kyrgios at 2.86 with Pinnacle

I guess that Kyrgios is going to start caring now that I'm going against him, but the odds make little sense given the situation. The rain delay certainly helps Mannarino more than Kyrgios and the Australian is going to go down if he plays like he did last week.

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