darko08
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Posts posted by darko08
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MC Osorio Serrano vs. Juvan Over 19.5 Games at 1.84 with Pinnacle
Both players comes from the qualy. Camila has won against Xiyu Wang (7-6, 4-6, 6-2) and Dart (6-4, 7-5). Juvan has won against Govortsova (6-2, 4-6, 6-2) and Nara (6-1, 6-1). I don't think the difference between them is as big as the odds suggest. There is only 1 year difference between them and Camila is a GS girl champion (USO 2019). In Guadalajara Juvan won against Bolsova in a tight match (7-6, 7-5) at similar odds. Then, she was beat by Bouchard in 2 sets (6-4, 6-3). I expect Camila to fight this match more than the odds suggest.
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20 minutes ago, DrO said:
I think we all know what happened here... Dzumhur, allegedly, bet some money on himself and he was going to lose the first set so he quit and he made a show to justify his action. I always have thought that the best thing to do in these situations is faking an injury, though.
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5 minutes ago, AgaRadwanska said:
It seems we had very similar bets (Karat, Chardy, Bulbik + Meddy) - although mine did not contain Sainykh ?
ergo, you have a win.
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8 hours ago, Torque said:
I'm starting off this week with two WTA matches. In Monterrey, I like the look of Sherif against Davis. The Egyptian has some momentum having come through the qualification rounds and although Davis is a player I like as she always gives best effort, I make her only a marginal favourite to win this. In Russia, I'm having a small stake on Rodionova to beat Zvonareva. Like Sherif, Rodionova has a couple of wins in qualifying which I always think is a bonus and also it's not as though Zvonareva is in particularly good form. She's not the player she used to be and the price on Rodionova is too high.
35pts Sherif to beat Davis @ 2.30 Bet365
5pts Rodionova to beat Zvonareva @ 9.00 Betfair Sportsbook
Zvonareva holds a 4-4 record this year and her defeats have been against Svitolina (6-4, 6-1), Vondrousova (7-6, 6-7, 6-4), Rybakina (4-6, 6-4, 6-4) and Kanepi (6-3, 6-7, 6-3). As you can see, she could have won any of the last 3 matches she has lost despite playing against very good players. Rodionova's record before playing the qualy was 0-4. Garcia (6-3, 6-4), Brengle (6-1, 6-2), Doi (7-5, 6-1) and Trevisan (5-7, 6-1, 6-3). Besides, you have a very recent precedent between these players. It's not particularly important cause it was played in a different surface (RG 2020) but Rodionova was unable to win more than 4 games (6-0, 6-4) against her. I would not give too much importance to the fact that she had played 2 matches here cause they have been against very low ranked players. IMO, I would say that Zvonareva perfectly could reach the SFs here (4.00) cause I can see her winning against Ferro (2.75) and Pavlyuchenkova (2.87). Not particularly convinced about the other one either as Davis had a decent run in Guadalajara (QFs) while Sherif lost in the 1st round against Olmos in straight sets.
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WTA Saint Petersburg
Tauson to win the 4th quarter at 4.50 with bet365
Tauson will play against Kasatkina in the 1st round, Sasnovich/Bogdan in the 2nd round and Kudermetova/Rakhimova/Mishina in the QFs. The favorite players to win this quarter are Kudermetova (2.00), Tauson and Kasatkina (4.50). Tauson has an advantage respect these 2 players, she's the only player who has played on indoors this year. She has played 18 matches on this surface in 2021 with a 16-2 record. She comes here after winning the WTA Lyon without dropping a single set (Fayard, Hesse, Alexandrova, Babos, Giorgi, Badosa and Golubic) and she has already played 2 matches here (Shalimova and Kerkhove), both won also in 2 sets. Kasatkina lost in the 1st round against Cornet in Dubai after winning the Philipp Island Trophy, both played on outdoors. Kudermetova did really in Abu Dhabi but after that her results have been really disappointing (4-5). I saw the last match she played, it was in Dubai against Bencic and it shocked me how bad she played. Tauson is priced at 1.80 against Kasatkina. If she wins this match she will be a massive favorite in her 2nd match. Bogdan has not played on indoors this year and the last time she won a match on this surface it was in 2019. Sasnovich played in Lyon but she suffered a big loss against Burel (including a 6-0 in the 3rd set) in her 2nd round there after a tight match against Bouchard.
- Robinnho, CzechPunter and Foo_Fighter
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Ann Li to win the WTA Monterrey at 10.00 with bet365
I have been following Ann Li for a long time. She is one of the most improved players during the last year and she will be soon in the top 20. This year she has a 6-1 record. She won against Kudermetova, Cirstea and Brady in the Grampians Trophy. In the AO she destroyed Shuai Zhang and Cornet, before losing against Sabalenka (the only player who has defeat her in 2021). The main risk here will be her first matches cause she hasn't played since her match against Sabalenka, but if she wins them she will be a strong candidate to get the title. She's priced at 1.50 against Rus but the value is on her taking the title for the reasons I have explained. If she wins against Rus she will play against Zarazua/Zidansek and then Lin Zhu/Bouchard/Gracheva/Saisai in the QFs. I like the fact that she won't face a strong opponent in the first 3 matches and this is a good opportunity for her to get some rythmn after spent 1 month without playing.
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6 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
Just for the record, I don't think Rodionova is worth backing today. At the current odds, I'd rather oppose her honestly.
Oh god.. While I was doing a parlay with matches of the Doha tournament (Karatsev, Chardy and Bublik) and finally included Savinykh on that parlay after reading this. really frustrating..
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Jaziri to beat Tsonga at 3.75 with bet365
I think there is value on Jaziri here. Tsonga has only played 3 matches since his return. He lost against Korda in 2 sets in Montpellier and then he lost also in 2 against Humbert after winning against Lopez in 3. Jaziri played in Doha where he beat Gombos in 2 sets and then lost in 2 against the winner of the tournament, Basilashvili. IMO Tsonga should not have these odds after his long absence, even against Jaziri.
- Foo_Fighter and Robinnho
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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:
Well, I think Rodionova might've even surprised herself with such a clean result haha!
I had some doubts but she did in straight sets, thanks!
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Herbert (+2.5 Games) to beat Humbert at 1.81 with Pinnacle
I go with Herbert again cause I wasn't expecting these odds. Today Humbert could have lost against Rinderknech. Rinderknech was serving for the match but finally he choked. I really like Humbert but he has been disappointing this year. He started the year losing in the 1st round of the Murray Valley Open against Duckworth (7-6, 6-4). Then, he received a painful comeback against Kyrgios after beating Uchiyama in 4 sets in the AO. His results in Montpellier and Rotterdam were not good either. He suffered to beat Gombos (6-3, 6-7) and Griekspoor (6-7, 7-6, 7-6), before losing easily against RBA (6-3, 6-3). In Rotterdam he lost in the 1st round against Chardy (6-4, 6-7, 6-7). Here, he has beat Tsonga (6-3, 6-4), who is not competitive at all right now, and Rinderknech (4-6, 7-5, 7-6) after saving a MP when Rinderknech was serving for the match. Herbert came here in a bad form but here he has showed his best tennis. He has beat Nishikori (6-1, 6-4), Norrie (6-3, 6-4) and Tsitsipas (6-7, 6-4, 6-2).
- CzechPunter and Robinnho
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39 minutes ago, AgaRadwanska said:
any thoughts on Bouzkova vs. Sorribes Tormo, guys?
Considering what both players showed in the australian season Bouzkova should win this match. Anyways, I haven't seen them here so don't take my words too seriously..
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I haven't seen Sinner against Gaston but he could have lost against Barrere (Barrere was serving for the match but he took very bad decisions on that game and he finally lost). In Montpellier Sinner took a medical timeout in his match against Bedene for some back problems. I remember he said in an interview that his back problems did not affect his game and he said he lost because he did not play well but then he did not play in Rotterdam... I had doubts about Medvedev but he has won easily against Gerasimov. I think Medvedev should win... but still worried about his intentions. I would not like to put money on him and then see him repeating the same pathetic performance he showed against Simon. Opinions on this match..?
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And I add one more, my last bet for this week most likely.
Muguruza (-3.5 Games) to beat Mertens at 1.80 with bet365
Muguruza has won 15 of her last 18 matches and she covered this line on all those wins, even against players as Sakkari, Sabalenka (2 times), Swiatek, Kenin,... She's been very dominant and her 3 defeats were against Barty, Osaka and Kvitova. IMO, if Muguruza had won the match points she had against Osaka in the AO she would have won the tournament. Her way to the SFs here has been more complicated than Mertens' way as she had to face Swiatek (6-0, 6-4) and Sabalenka (3-6, 6-3, 6-2) in her last 2 matches. Mertens came to the AO in a good form but her match against Muchova was disappointing. After that, she hasn't convinced me at all either. She had a tough match against Tomova in her 1st round here (4-6, 6-2, 6-4). Then, she won against Rogers (6-3, 6-3), García (6-4, 6-2) and Pegula (5-7, 7-5, 6-0). Rogers apparently had physical problems and García is out of form. As some punters have pointed, Pegula was 1 set up and leading the 2nd set 4-1 (15-40) but she choked. She even had 3 match points when she was 5-4. Besides, there's something that shocks me about Mertens and it's her really bad record against the best players of the circuit (with some really big defeats).
- CzechPunter and Robinnho
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Herbert (+4.5 Games) to beat Tsitsipas at 1.9 with Pinnacle
As I said before, Herbert is really good playing on indoors. Neither Nishikori (6-1, 6-4) nor Norrie (6-3, 6-4) broke his serve here. Tsitsipas has won against Pouille (6-2, 6-3). I haven't seen this match but I'm not impressed by this win. As I said on previous posts, I saw Pouille against Horansky, Maden and Kamke and he played really bad. I even bet against him on his first round match against Bonzi (7-6, 6-2) in Montpellier. Tsitsipas did well in Rotterdam but he did not have easy matches there. He had a tight match against Gerasimov (7-6, 7-5) and he dropped sets against Hurkacz (6-4, 4-6, 7-5) and Kachanov (4-6, 6-3, 7-5). He finally lost against Rublev in 2 sets. Tsitsipas is so much better from the baseline but I expect Herbert to play really aggressive, serving well and winning a lot of points on the net as he did against Kei. They only played once before and Herbert won it in straight sets but it is irrelevant cause it was in 2018.
- Robinnho and CzechPunter
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Herbert to beat Norrie at 1.91 with William Hill
I like Herbert for this match. He's really good on indoors and he beat Nishikori easily (6-1, 6-4) in his first round while Norrie had problems with Lestienne (6-4, 6-7, 6-3). None of these players was on a good form but Herbert has showed more and i have seen him playing really good matches on this surface.
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Gerasimov to beat Medvedev at 6.50 with bet365
There is a match from this last year tournament that I still remember quite well, and it is the match Medvedev played against Simon in his second round (6-4, 6-0). He played horrible and his attitude was also horrible. He spent all the match complaining about everything and he also smashed some rackets. He has never achieved good results here and he lost his last match in Rotterdam against Lajovic in 2 sets (7-6, 6-4). Anyways, as I said before, Gerasimov is a really dangerous player on indoors and he's in a good form. He has won against Hanfmann in his first match here (6-2, 6-0). They have played 2 times before and Danill won both. St Petersburg 2019 (7-5, 7-5) and Tokyo (6-7, 6-3, 6-3).
- liquidglass, CzechPunter, delfino and 1 other
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Gerasimov to beat Hanfmann at 1.40 with bet365
I also like this match. The odds are not high but Gerasimov is really good playing on indoors. In Montpellier he beat Murray, Bedene, Davidovich and lost in the SFs against Goffin in a 3 set match. In Rotterdam he lost in the 1st round but it was against Tsitsipas and it was tight (7-6, 7-5). The last year here he reached the SFs, beating Ruusuvuori, Novak and Goffin and lost against Aliassime. As I said, I really like him when he plays indoors and here is where he has his best results. Hanfmann best surface is clay.
- liquidglass, AgaRadwanska, CzechPunter and 4 others
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I add this one.
Olmos (+6.00 Gamest) to beat Podoroska at 1.67 with Pinnacle
I think the line is just to big. Olmos has already played 2 matches here and she beat Sherif in straight sets (Sherif was priced at 1.20). Podoroska did not end well her australian season. She lost easily against Vekic in the 2nd round of the AO (6-2, 6-2) and in the 1st round of the Phililp Island Trophy against Begu (6-3, 6-3). Olmos is better known for doubles but I have seen her and she's not a bad player on singles despite her ranking. Podoroska last match was against Begu and it was 1 month ago. Considering Olmos has already played 2 matches here (including a win in 2 sets against Sherif) I think she can cover this handicap. This match starts in 1 hour.
- Foo_Fighter, CzechPunter, Olymp and 2 others
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WTA Dubai
Jabeur to win the 2nd quarter at 2.50 with bet365
Well, this is my last bet for this week. When I saw the draw I got the feeling that Jabeur could have a deep run so I will go with her for third time. Teichmann in her next match and then Gauff/Martincova. The favorite player to win the quarter is Gauff at 2.37. I have watched Teichmann against Kvitova. The czech player retired due to a thigh injury. Watching her it was clear something was wrong after losing the 1st set but even with that Kvitova managed to take the lead in the second set (4-1) before retiring a couple of games later. I havent seen Gauff today but I saw her match against Alexandrova and she played with a lot of nerves. She wasted a 5-1 lead in the 3rd set but she managed to win a heartbreaking TB. I remember her wasting a big amount of MPs. Jabeur has won against Siniakova (6-2, 6-3) and Rybakina (7-6, 4-6, 6-2). I don't think it will be easy but I expect her to prevail on both matches.
ATP Marseille
I also add this one: Kachanov to win the 2nd quarter at 1.90 with bet365
I haven't seen the matches but I like this one, though. He will play McDonald in his first match and then Ebden/Ruusuvuori. He did relatively well in Rotterdam, beating Wawrinka and Norrie in 2 sets and then lost in 3 against Tsitsipas.
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42 minutes ago, Torque said:
Which I'm sure you'll agree is highly anomalous.
Not necessarily. It depends on the player and the way she manages first serves and the way she manages second serves. It's not usual but you will see it especially on players who don't have the serve as a big weapon and use first serves and second serves similarly.
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1 hour ago, Torque said:
As an added caveat, some of the stats during the match back up how Mertens was playing well below her best. During the first set, Tomova was winning more points on second serve than first. That should never happen.
? ? ? Do you know what means that? That she played better with her second serves ?
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@Torque First of all. You should know that rankings a lot of times don't show the real level of players (did you know Karatsev before...?). That being said, how many times have you seen Tomova? Did you know her? Could be there some back story that explains why she is ranked that way? Personally, I did not know her, I just said that it shocked me how she played and I just found really poor your comment, reducing all to a "Mertens couldn't hold the serve". Reading you seems you're assuming that when a good ranked player loses to a worse ranked player is because the good ranked one played a bad match. That's ridiculous. WTA has reached a point where a top 100 player on a good day can beat a top 20 player fairly, and this is due to 3 things: the first one is that the difference between good players and normal players has become short, the second one is that most of the players nowadays are big hitters and the third one is that rankings sometimes don't show the real level of players. As you said, we have difference opinions.
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4 hours ago, Torque said:
Sometimes you have to wonder how certain players are ranked where they are. Svitolina is one of those players. Top 5, but when she's bad she's abject. Earlier she played Kuznetsova and went a set and a break up - or as I call it the curse of a set and a break up, as so many players seem to lose from that position - then gave the break back as the second set went to 4-4. Seven games in a row to Kuznetsova later and it's practically game over. Maybe it's me, but if you're top 5 in the world you shouldn't be losing seven games in a row against anyone, let alone a player like Kuznetsova who has been in decline for a number of years now.
There's other times where you have to wonder whether certain players are replaced with doubles between rounds, such is the contrast in performance levels. An example of that was the Mertens of yesterday, who struggled to get over the line in three sets against 140th ranked lucky loser Tomova, largely due to being completely incapable of holding serve and the Mertens of today, who confidently brushed past a very capable player in Rogers in two easy sets. I suppose it's idiosyncrasies like these that make punting such fun
I'm really surprised with how Tomova played yesterday. Her backhand shot, cross-court and DTL, was simply brutal. And the effort she played with was also admirable, putting an extra ball on every single point. I don't think you should reduce all what happened yesterday to a "Mertens being uncapable to hold her serve". It's ridicolous and it's not fair for her opponent.
10 hours ago, AgaRadwanska said:In his match yesterday he (Rune) picked up an injury at 4-2 up second set (he won first set), and essentially couldn't run for the final few games. He managed to serve it out whilst limping between points somehow. I believe he was 1.75 when serving for the match.
Looks like Rune wasn't injured after all.
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Jabeur to beat Rybakina at 1.80 with William Hill
Rybakina's great moment of form was cut by the pandemic and her last results haven't been good at all. She lost in the 1st round of the Grampians Trophy against Krejcikova, in the 2nd round of the AO against Ferro and in the 1st round of Doha against Siegemund. 3 defeats against 3 clay court players that she should have beat easily on this surface. She has beat Saisai (6-0, 6-4), who is still winless this year (0-6). Despite that bagel in the 1st set I don't like how Rybakina played in the 2nd one. I already said what I think about Jabeur on a previous post. I think Jabeur is not a good matchup for Rybakina. She uses a lot of variety on her shots, she loves to slice and drop shot. I still remember how Barty destroyed her the last year in the AO with her slices. Jabeur beat Siniakova (6-2, 6-3) in the first round.
Tennis Tips - March 15 - March 21
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted · Edited by darko08
WTA Saint Petersburg
Alexandrova to win the 1st quarter at 1.90 with bet365
Yesterday it was paid at 1.80 but now it has raised to 1.90 so I go for it. 2 matches. Her first opponent will be Voegele/Martincova. She leads the h2h against both. The bookies favor Martincova to advance but she had to retire due to back problems in her last match played in Lyon against Ferro (6-2, 4-1), so we will see what happens today. Alexandrova leads the h2h against her (3-1). 2 of them were played in 2016 and the most recent one is the match they played here in 2019 in which Alexandrova won in 2 sets (7-5, 6-2). In relation to Voegele they have played only once and it was in Shenzhen 2019 (6-4, 6-1). Alexandrova should win against any of these 2 players. Her QFs match will be against Siniakova/Flipkens/Gasparyan/Mladenovic. Flipkens will play her first match here since her first round loss in the AO. She had to deal with an ankle injury there. Gasparyan had to deal with a lot of injuries during 2020 and she barely played matches. She won recently some matches in the WTA Lyon against low ranked players but she lost against Mladenovic in the 2nd round (6-4, 6-2). Siniakova is in a very bad moment. She has a 1-4 record this year (her only victory was against Niculescu in 3 sets) and she has no matches played on indoors this year. Mladenovic is the 2nd favorite to win this quarter (6.50). Alexandrova leads the h2h against her (2-0). Linz 2019 (6-2, 6-4) and Palermo 2020 (5-7, 6-0, 6-1). Mladenovic lost against Badosa in Lyon in a 3 set match after winning against Gasparyan. She comes here after a big loss against Pegula in Dubai (6-1, 6-2). Alexandrova is in 3 losing streak. She lost easily against Barty in the 3rd round of the AO. She lost in 2 sets against Tauson in Lyon (6-3, 6-4). Her last match was against Gauff in Dubai, and it was a thriller (6-7, 6-2, 6-7). Despite her last 3 loses, Alexandrova is incredibly good on indoors and she plays home. The last year here, she won against Kasatkina, Vekic and Kvitova, and lost in the SFs in a 3 set match against Bertens. In 2019 she reached the QFs (coming from the qualy), losing against Sabalenka. I expect her to win, at least, 2 matches here.