[Tennis Tips - March 8 - March 14]

Bolsova vs Juvan +19.5 Games at 1.74 with Pinnacle

I'm not sure if Juvan deserves that big favoritism. Bolsova took a set against Bouzkova after beating easily Raina in 2 sets in the Yarra Valley. After that, she lost easily against Brady in the 1st round of the AO. 4 of 5 Juvan's last matches have been 3 set matches (vs. Yafan Wang, Swiatek, Sherif and Gauff). I do not count her match against Konta cause Konta retired after winning the 1st set. The only match from the last 5 that she has won in 2 sets has been against Cabrera (6-4, 6-3). In the AO, both players lost against Brady with exactly the same result (6-1, 6-3). I expect Bolsova to fight this match more than the odds suggest.

Fiona Ferro (+5.5 Games) to beat Mertens at 1.91 with William Hill

I will go with a safer option. Ferro's last year was really good and she has been productive in her last tournaments (wins over Siniakova and Rybakina in the AO and SFs in Lyon) . The surface favors Mertens but, as has been said, this is her first match after her unexpected loss against Muchova in the AO so I think she can have a slow start.

[Tennis Tips - March 1 - March 7]

Jabeur vs Siniakova -21.5 Games at 1.91 with William Hill

I think Jabeur should win this match comfortably. Siniakova is in a very bad moment and lacks of self-confidence. She only has won 1 match in 2020 and it was against Niculescu (in a 3 set match), who holds a 0-6 this year (and the only set she has won on all those matches was against Siniakova). I saw Jabeur against Schmiedlova (6-3, 6-2) and against Osaka (3-6, 2-6) in the AO. I like how she played. I haven't seen her in Doha (she lost in the 2nd round against Pliskova in a 3 set match after beating Blinkova in straight sets). The last year they played here in the 1st round, too, and Jabeur beat her easily (6-3, 6-2). She also beat Brady (6-4, 6-3) and Pliskova (6-4, 3-6, 6-3) and lost in 2 TBs against Kvitova in the QFs. She said she feels like home here, I expect her to win this in straight sets.

[Tennis Tips - March 1 - March 7]

Fiona Ferro (-2.5 Games) to beat Clara Burel at 1.73 with William Hill

I like Burel and it's obvious that she's improving as she has achieved here 2 important wins (vs. Cornet and Sasnovich) but Ferro has proved during the last year that she plays on another level. Burel has played her last match against Sasnovich with tapes on her arm. She won the third set to nil but I imagine she wore them for a reason. She played an ITF tournament in Poitiers the last week. She reached the Final but she lost it against Snigur in a 3 set match. She played three 3 set matches there and two more here so Ferro should be more fresh for this match. Both players prefer clay but Ferro is overall better player so I back her.

[Tennis Tips - March 1 - March 7]

Tauson beating Alexandrova in straight sets on indoors... that's a big step

[Tennis Tips - March 1 - March 7]

Arantxa Rus (-2.5 Games) to beat Xiyu Wang at 1.80 with bet365

At first, I have to say that these odds are influenced by 2 things. The first one is that Rus lost against her recently in Abu Dhabi (6-3, 3-6, 6-4) and the second one is that Rus is still winless in 2021 (X.Wang, Venus and Swiatek). Despite that, I think Rus should win this match. Her game suits really well on hard indoor courts (82-45) while Wang has never won a match on this surface as a professional. Rus beat her easily in December 2020 in Dubai (6-1, 6-3). Rus is better player and IMO the match that reflects the real difference between them is the match they played in Dubai, not the last one. I think proper odds should be 1.40, not 1.60. 

[Tennis Tips - February 22 - February 28]

12 hours ago, Teodore said:

Over 3.2 on Bencic against Świątek ?!

Ok Świątek play very well, Bencic after hard match but I see domek value on Bencic.

 

Ps. #jazdaIga

This is the fourth or the fifth bet against Swiatek that I have seen here in the last 2 tournaments. She has won this tournament without dropping a single set as she did in RG. None of the players she has played against has won more than 4 games on all those sets. There's a reason why Swiatek is priced that low on all these matches by the bookies. Bookies don't gift anything.

[Tennis Tips - February 22 - February 28]

WTA Adelaide

Caroline García to beat Anastasija Sevastova at 1.76 with Pinnacle

I don't understand these odds and it's possible that I'm missing something but I think García has showed more than Sevastova in the last matches. Sevastova ended 2020 with a 6-13 record and she only has won 1 match in 2021. She lost against Badosa in 3 sets in the 1st round of Abu Dhabi. She was destroyed by Pavlyuchenkova (6-0, 6-3) after beating Brengle in 2 sets. After that she was destroyed by Kanepi in the AO (6-3, 6-1) and lost in the Philipp Island Trophy against Bogdan in 3 sets. García won against Babos and Rodionova, both in 2 sets, before losing against Mertens in 2 tight sets. In the AO she lost in 2 sets in the 2nd round against the winner of the tournament, Osaka. Before that, she won against Hercog in 2 tight sets. In the Philipp Island Trophy she lost in 2 sets in the first round against Doi. As I said, García has been better than Sevastova, who is clearly in a bad shape. Maybe there's something that I'm missing but I like García at these odds.

[Tennis Tips - February 22 - February 28]

ATP Montpellier (Open Sud de France)

Sebastian Korda to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 1.53 with bet365

Tsonga will play his first match after a long absence. His last match played was against Popyrin, in the AO 2020, where he had to retire due to an injury. Korda comes in a real good form after winning the Quimper Challenger, played also on indoors.  

Benjamin Bonzi to beat Lucas Pouille at 1.66 with bet365

Pouille has returned after a long absence but his results and his game during his first 3 matches has been bad. He has won against Maden but lost against Horansky and Kamke, all of them in 3 sets. I watched him against Horansky and Kamke and I did not like what I saw. Bonzi is a good player on indoors and he comes in a good form. He reached the Final in the Istanbul Challenger and the SFs in the Quimper Challenger, both in played on indoors. In the Final of Istanbul he lost against Rinderknech in 3 sets. The match he lost in the SFs of the Quimper Challenger was also tight, as he lost in 2 TBs against Korda.

[Australian Open 2021]

2 hours ago, SteffiSteffiGraf said:

Wow, watching Jennifer Brady, when I have money riding on her winning, feels a lot like watching Jo Konta as a supporter for many years.

No evidence of any patience, any tennis brain, or any willingness or knowledge of how to construct a point. Simply a ‘must hit every shot as hard as possible’ mentality, with no apparent concept of how to change things when that approach isn’t working.

Ended up being a rather difficult watch, as I was conflicted between having money on Brady, but being a tennis fan, and wanting Muchova to win, as she was attempting to play tennis and actually build the points, rather than just bashing the ball about!

The match has been really bad. Both players have played with a lot of nerves... and it's hard to believe that this was a SF of a GS...

Osaka today has wiped the court with Serena. In her way to the Final she has faced some really good players (García, Jabeur, Muguruza, Hsieh, Serena,...) and her level has been really good. Brady's way to the Final couldn't have been easier... Bolsova, Brengle and Juvan in the first 3 matches, followed by an injured Vekic and then Pegula and Muchova... I have watched her against Pegula, Vekic and Muchova and her level is miles away from the level she showed in the US Open, where she lost in the SFs against Osaka in an epic match. While I was watching her match against Pegula the commentator told a stat about Brady. She's the player that has won more points playing with 1st serves (81%) during the last year so if she plays with a decent % of 1st serves it's a hard task to break her serve. But that's something she hasn't done in her last 2 matches (Pegula: 49%, Muchova: 50%). Her only way to compete against Osaka passes to play with a huge % of 1st serves, and even doing that I hardly can't see her winning. Anyways, we have seen some really strange things in this sport, so let's see...

[Australian Open 2021]

Djokovic vs Karatsev - Under 32,5 Games - at 1.73 with William Hill

I just copy the comment I did above and add a couple of things to explain why I think this will be an easy victory for Djokovic.

1 hour ago, darko08 said:

Djokovic won't suffer against Karatsev. An aggressive flat hitting player who likes to dictate the points from the baseline? That's a perfect matchup for Nole. Just take a look at the dominance of Djokovic against players with a similar game style (Berdych, Cilic,...). He will need to serve extremely well to not be destroyed by Djokovic.

I have watched his matches against Fritz, Raonic and Zverev. Against Fritz I thought he was done but after a 10 minute pause before the 5th set started, he miraculously recovered to win that set. Against Raonic he started well but in the middle of the first I started to see him complaining in some parts of the match when he was running sideways. Exaggerated or not, he won both matches. In his match against Zverev, as I said before, he started playing super aggressive, playing every point at 2 or 3 shots and doing a big amount of UEs but when he was 5-4 down and Zverev was serving for the match he changed to his "wall version". The version he showed in the final 3 sets against Sasha was good and the way he as been serving it's pretty impressive. In theory, the shot that is more affected with this kind of injury is the serve so it's a little bit weird that his best shot during all the tournament had been his serve. Anyways, Djokovic has had 2 more days to recover from his injury and everyday it passes he become fitter. Considering the way he played against Zverev I think Karatsev should be an easy task for him.

[Australian Open 2021]

2 hours ago, liquidglass said:

Medvedev For The Title

It will be fair to say that as it stands only two men look capable of lifting that trophy come the final. Djokovic or Medvedev - and to be fair it is looking more like Medvedev. Here is my calculation: Medvedev has managed his energy levels well up to this point, winning all his matches in straight sets except the one with Krajinovic where he went to 5. Djokovic conversely has played one 3 setter, 3 four setters and one five setter plus injury worries. Medvedev has won 3 of his last 4 meetings with Tsitsipas and considering Tsitsipas's last 5 setter with Nadal, one can easily see that his chances of beating a seemingly fresh Medvedev hangs between slim and none. Even if by some working of the god's Tsitsipas manages to beat Medvedev, it will certainly require a 4 or 5 setter to accomplish before even thinking of beating Djokovic in the final judging from what could be left from the residue of the Nadal match. Based on that, I do not expect him to beat Djokovic with or without the injury.

Medvedev has also beaten Djokovic three out of the last 4 times that they have played and there is no reason why he should not beat this downgraded version of Djokovic if they ever play. The bookies cut Djokovic from evens to 4/6 as a result of Nadal's exit. I thought that was really an inconsequential move as it did not have any effect on what was left of the draw. I also think that Karatsev may not be disarmed easily causing Djokovic to expend more energy. We have all praised the joker admirably for playing bravely through his injury even to the extent of fooling the bookies. I dare him to repeat the dose this time hoping that he will meet the wonder kid Medvedev who one commentator described yesterday as playing with the accuracy of a video game. I really think Medvedev from here at 11/5 is a huge gift. Come the final he really cannot be more than evens or 5/6 either way with Djokovic. Get on board now before the next men's match takes off. There could never be a better timing.

I agree except for one thing, Djokovic won't suffer against Karatsev. An aggressive flat hitting player who likes to dictate the points from the baseline? That's a perfect matchup for Nole. Just take a look at the dominance of Djokovic against players with a similar game style (Berdych, Cilic,...). He will need to serve extremely well to not be destroyed by Djokovic.

[Australian Open 2021]

8 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Cunning Djokovic  Does not seem to be embarrassed by any physical discomfort.

He started super aggressive, playing every point at 2 shots and doing a large amount of UE (at this point I thought he was done), but when he was down 5-4 and Zverev was serving for the set he started playing his habitual "wall version", showing no signs of physical problems. Anyways, this match is not done yet.. Let's see

[Australian Open 2021]

4 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Anyone who watched the last games of Djoker/Zverev... How is their physical condition?

Is Djokovic fully up&running? I've seen him struggling against Fritz but still taking over Raonic.

I took Zverev at 2.75. To beat someone as Zverev he will need to be at his best and "apparently" he's not. With Djokovic is hard to know but I think his abdomen problems are real (probably, a little bit exaggerated...) and, as I said, he needs to be at his best to beat Zverev here. Let's see..

[Australian Open 2021]

@bet4fun are u kidding me? She has won all the 3 finals of grand slam she has played

[Australian Open 2021]

6 minutes ago, bet4fun said:

I already have pre-tournament bets for both serena and halep as well as barty to win the australian open. so wont take much today

You have pre-tournament bets for Halep, Serena and Barty but not for Osaka..? ?

[Australian Open 2021]

3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, I'm also in the camp of Serena having a good shot this time around. She's nowhere near her peak, of course, she won't get there again, but this match looks winnable. Halep had some luck against Swiatek in that Swiatek made a few more errors and bad decisions than expected after the first set.

That's not to say that I'd be that keen on backing Williams, though. Obviously Halep can defend well and move her around, which is - and always has been - the right idea on beating Serena. Not many players can pull that through, but Halep can, as she is nimble and can run all day long. If she can turn it into an attrition contest, she should win. If she doesn't get stuck in early on, though, Serena will smash through.

She started playing aggressive, hitting too flat. She said she thought that was the best way to beat Swiatek but she started to do some mistakes and then she changed her game plan for the next 2 sets, hitting with more topspin and opening more the court. She started moving Swiatek more, making her hitting the ball from awkward positions and that's why she increased her UEs. You can't call that luck... The final set was tight but overall Halep was the better player. As you said, if Halep moves Serena she will win. Potapova did in her first set against Serena and she outclassed her. Do you know how many UE did Serena on that first set? 25. 12 winners and 25 UEs. The way she lost the ninth game by doing 5 DF in the same game when she was serving for the set desmoralised her. The h2h is irrelevant. Even though since Serena returned Halep has won 2 of the last 3 matches they have played (2019). That being said my pick for this one is Halep, as the non-favorite player.

Halep to beat Serena at 2.10 with bet365

[Australian Open 2021]

10 minutes ago, SteffiSteffiGraf said:

Really surprised and disappointed about Elina Svitolina - that’s the second Grand Slam in a row where the draw has really opened up in front of her, and she failed to take advantage either time.

I hope her career doesn’t pass her by, in terms of Grand Slam success - I’d really like to see her win one. There are worse players than her who have won Grand Slams, and her and Karolina Pliskova will both have underachieved if they end their careers without one. Those two are definitely next in line to win one.

If you are surprised it's because you haven't been paying attention to Pegula. She's playing the best tennis of her career. And Pliskova is unable to play well for 7 straight matches, it's beyond her

[Australian Open 2021]

Leylah/Watson to beat Fichman/Olmos at 2.75 with bet365

I add one doubles match for tonight. Fichman/Omos is the favorite pair but not that much IMO. None of them has never been in the top 50. I guess that they favor them so much because they beat Chan/Chan in the 1st round but Leylah/Watson also beat another of the best current pairs of the circuit in the 1st round (Stosur/Zhang). Fichman/Olmos have played together 5 matches in their career (3-2) while Watson/Leylah is the first time they play together (2-0).

[Australian Open 2021]

5 hours ago, SteffiSteffiGraf said:

I would think that most of them, if not all of them, were long enough ago to be rather irrelevant.

In terms of 2021 Halep and 2021 Serena Williams, Williams doesn’t have anywhere near the movement or all-round game to go toe-to-toe with Halep. I’m happy to lump on Halep and if need be, and it goes wrong, lump on even bigger on Osaka to beat Williams in the next round.

I think we’re in a nice little sweet spot for betting, when the Federer/S. Williams/Nadal/Djokovic eras are starting to wind down, but the bookies still insist on pricing them up based on their previous glories. There’s decent money to be made in opposing these players, when the time is right. I could have gone in on Sabalenka to beat Williams, but I decided to hold off, as I thought that Sabalenka’s game might suit Serena a bit more than Halep’s. I think Sabalenka probably deserved to win the match just about. 

I trust Halep - and Osaka - hugely though, the best two players in the world by a bit of a margin, so I’m happy to lump on them both to beat Serena, if they both end up playing her.

I don’t think it will get that far though, as Halep is the one player that I’d back to demolish Serena. I can’t believe that I’m getting 13/10 on that, because I would happily take a far shorter price, and still think it was a gift! I was expecting somewhere around 1/2 or 4/9.

I agree with you. Sabalenka overpowered Serena in most parts of the match. SAabalenka deserved to win. Serena also deserved to lost the first against Potapova. The teenager dominated her but when she was serving for the set (5-3) she did 5 Double faults in the same game! Unbelievable. Finally, Serena broke her and then won the TB (a tight one). That frustrated Potapova. Who knows what could have happened if Potapova had won that first set because Serena was outclassed by the teenager on that set.

[Australian Open 2021]

Donna Vekic (+1,5 Sets) to beat Jennifer Brady at 1.90 with betfair

Vekic played really well against Kanepi. She could have lost in 2 sets as she had to face a MP in the 2nd set but she saved it with a massive serve and then she won the TB. I was impressed with the way that she played the crucial points, that was one of those matches that gives you a lot of confidence for the next ones. Brady has not been tested yet as she has played against Bolsova, Brengle and Juvan so play against Vekic will be a big jump for her. IMO Vekic has more options than the odds suggest so I bet that she will win a set, at least.

Jessica Pegula (+1,5 Sets) to beat Elina Svitolina at 1.65 with betfair

Another player that has impressed me during this tournament is Pegula. She beat Azarenka in the 1st round, comebacking a 5-3 in the 1st set. After that she has destroyed Stosur and Mladenovic. Svitolina also has been playing really well but I did not like how she played in the first set against Putintseva. I think Pegula can win this match, or a set at least.

[Australian Open 2021]

8 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Russian scientists developed a new generation of doping? :))))

Karatsev is their ultimate creation, they have been keeping him in the fridge. He can beat Dimitrov

[Australian Open 2021]

Hsieh reminds me of Fognini, winning the matches without barely moving on the court...?

[Australian Open 2021]

52 minutes ago, vvararu said:

What do you think guys about Auger-Aliassime - Karatsev. Canadian seems to me a, generally, better, more versatile player, but watching some moments from Karatsev’s games, I’m afraid of his rocket-like forehand hits and good run starting with 2020 (even if majority of opponents were not of Grand Slam level)

I did not watch that match live but I did today. That guy is really good but I think that Aliassime will win that match. Karatsev hitted 50 winners in 3 sets, which is really impressive, but Diego helped him with many easy balls. Add to that how weak is Diego's serve... Maybe I'm wrong in my assertion but I hardly can see him winning against a top 20 hard hitter... Probably he could beat more top players with similar conditions than Schwartzman, that's for sure... I have read that he had to deal with a knee injury but that was only for some months and this guy has already 27 years old which means that he's not regular in his game because if he had been playing always as he did against Diego he would be in the Top 30, at least... I also have seen that he played 3 consecutive finals in Challengers the last year, which means that he's in a real good form. Medvedev said that Karatsev was their secret gun for doubles in the ATP Cup, but he didn't manage to show it because they won all their singles matches. I could be wrong, but if Aliassime doesn't have a real bad day, he should win this.

[Australian Open 2021]

@bet4fun If he really was feeling pain on his abdomen why he was constantly slicing with his backhand?? Do you know how painful is doing that when you feel pain on your abdomen? As I said, he made a show. He was feeling pain except when he was playing the points...?

[Australian Open 2021]

Kokkinakis/Kyrgios to beat Koolhof/Kubot at 2.50 with bet365

I think there is value on this match. I heard Kyrgios talking about doubles and he really wants to win it. After I heard Kyrgios talking about that I picked them to win 2-0 against Harris/Knowle, and they did easily (6-2, 6-4). Both players have a massive serve and they did not concede a single BP in the whole match. When the best players on singles focus on doubles they usually beat the players who are exclusively dedicated on doubles. Koolhof/Kubot are both inside the Top 10 ranking now but this is the first time they play together. I think theres is big value on the australians, who really want to win this.