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Reckon I may have done ok?

Cracking result for Billy Big Ball Cock, The rest of us also rans but credit where credit is due @roger2256 and @kroni finished in profit. This is what we like to see a good result for one of us, so top marks @BBBC

Blade Runner 40/1 Bet 365 - 14:50 Chepstow - 6 places - each way James Du Berlais 33/1 Bet 365 - 15:00 Leopardstown - 6 places - each way Each way double

3.00 leopard Paddy power chase Ontheropes 8.7 33/1 Fakir dalene. 8.6 20/1 Amirite. 8.4 12/1 These three are a bit clear of rest so with limited race interests due to field sizes I'll try 3pt Ew all 3 ....and forecasts all 3

Dagenham & Redbridge v Eastleigh Granted Eastleigh have not always been great away from home this season, but Dagenham continue to put some very limp performances in at home and as I highlighted in Saturday's preview even lost to Wealdstone in their last home game. I'm sure Paul McCallum will be keen to get on the scoresheet given he used to be at Dagenham and he continues to be in fine form. I'd be even more confident if Eastleigh had been better on their travels, but the price makes little sense to me and looks the best bet of Boxing Day. Ebbsfleet v Bromley Bromley should have won with ease last night, but a mix of good defending and not being clinical enough cost them. Play like that again and they should eat an Ebbsfleet side who are struggling for wins. I don't think there is a huge amount in the price, but enough for me to play. Dover v Aveley Granted Dover have won just once all season and they have picked up 11 draws, but I am happy to continue opposing Aveley and Dover are surely going to edge a game at some point given how close they are from gaining the 3 points. Havant & Waterlooville v Farnborough Farnborough have only won once away all season and they were very lucky to get 3 points on Saturday against Braintree. Their goal was a penalty and they created little else whereas Braintree's xG was 2.05. Havant were unfortunate not to pick something up at Truro as it was a 30 yard wonder strike which proved to be the only goal of the game. Back at home I think they can get back to winning ways. Torquay v Truro Torquay had a few players missing on Saturday and were poor losing at Chelmsford. Their home form has been strong to be fair and they might well bounce back, but with Truro in picking up wins I will take a chance that they can pull off a victory. Eastleigh 2pts @ 11/5 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Bromley 1pt @ 23/20 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to Evs) Dover 1pt @ 15/8 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Skybet are 2/1 and take up to 6/4) Havant 2pts @ 6/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Skybet are 13/8 and take up to 11/10) Truro 1pt @ 13/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 11/5) Prices from 3pm Christmas Eve Eastleigh 2pts @ 11/5 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Bromley 1pt @ 23/20 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to Evs) Dover 1pt @ 15/8 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Skybet are 2/1 and take up to 6/4) Havant 2pts @ 6/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Skybet are 13/8 and take up to 11/10) Truro 1pt @ 13/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 11/5)

Happy Boxing Day 👍

Chepstow 1.05 Only four have declared for this 2M 3 1/2F class 2 handicap chase with the Sam Thomas trained Good Risk At All a warm favourite now dropping back to a trip that suits him better having possibly failed to stay over three miles at Cheltenham last time. He should run well but at the prices the consistent top weight First Flow may be the value play. He finished a 4L runner up to Boothill at Ascot last time out, form which has been boosted several times since and Kim Bailey’s eleven year old will appreciate any more rain that falls at the Welsh track. FIRST FLOW 1 point win @ 9/4 William Hill Kempton 1.20 A nine runner introductory juvenile hurdle which features the well touted Nicky Henderson trained Sir Gino who is already a top priced 12/1 for the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham next March. He impressed when winning a listed race on his racecourse debut for his French trainer at Auteuil last April and has subsequently been bought privately by the Donnelly’s and put into training over here with Nicky Henderson. He’s had a wind operation since but the opposition today hardly looks that exacting and he can make a winning British debut at a meeting where his trainer does so well at. SIR GINO, NICKLE BACK (1.55 Kempton) & BURDETT ROAD (2.10 Chepstow) 2 points win treble 8/15, 4/5 & 4/9 Bet Victor Chepstow 1.40 A class 2 2M 7F 131 yard handicap hurdle is up next with a field of eight where I feel there is an excellent each way bet to get stuck into. Many of these can be crabbed for one reason or another but the one who appeals is the Tim Vaughan trained Bells Of Peterboro. He showed up nicely in two handicap chases on his first two starts this season over fences but was disappointing when reverting to hurdles last time but its best to forgive him that run now in a first time visor as he has such a great record in this very race and it may well be that he has been trained for this race. He ran out a very easy 22L winner of this race two years off of a handicap mark 3lb higher than todays ‘s as well as finishing a creditable third in this contest a year ago. He’s well worth chancing under Alan Johns who knows him so well. BELLS OF PETERBORO 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 123 Kempton 1.55 A small field of just four line up for the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase run over two miles. The one to beat is the Sarah Humphrey trained Nickle Back who followed up two emphatic chase victories at Warwick and Stratford from the front by running a highly creditable 6 1/2L second to the smart Hermes Allen in a Grade 2 Novices’ Chase at Newbury at the beginning of the month. He’s an exuberant front runner who will more than likely set out in front and hopefully run the race out of his three rivals, the best of which may well be Master Chewy. Chepstow 2.10 The 2M grade 2 Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle has only attracted six runners with a very warm favourite in James Owen’s unbeaten juvenile hurdler Burdett Road. He has to shoulder a 5lb penalty for his impressive wins at Huntingdon and in grade 2 company at Cheltenham under today’s rider Harry Cobden. He should win this the with utmost of ease all be it at prohibitive odds. Kempton 2.30 The 2M Desert Orchid Chase has Grade 2 status and for the first time this year is a limited handicap which has attracted six runners. Harry Fry’s Boothill arrives in top form chasing a hat trick of two mile handicap chase wins following a brace of wins at Ascot this season. He may have been a bit fortunate to oblige last time as Saint Segal was a length ahead when tumbling at the last. Only 3lb higher in the weights now he appeals as the one to beat although Joe Tizzard’s Elixir De Nutz, who is also chasing a hat trick, and Nube Negra, who will appreciate the drying ground look dangers. BOOTHILL 1 point win @ 2/1 BetVictor Chepstow 2.50 The 2023 renewal of the 3M 6 1/F Coral Welsh Grand National has attracted a maximum field of twenty dye in the wool stayers. Many have claims including the top weight Iwilldoit who won the race two years ago off of bottom weight but is now 13lb higher in the weights. The trial winner Nassalam is another with a shout although he has to prove his stamina. The race looks wide open and I’ll take a rank outsider to run well at a massive price with extra places. David Pipe’s Only The Bold looked a stayer going places last year when bolting up at Bangor and Hereford but has flopped three times since, twice this year back over hurdles so its impossible to be too confident about his chances but if he can get himself back to the form he showed last year he can give his trainer David Pipe his first win in a race that his father Martin did so well in. ONLY THE BOLD 1 point each way @ 33/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456 Kempton 3.09 A valuable 3M class 2 Handicap Chase is up next with eight going to post. The form horse is arguably the top weight Tea Clipper who should go well here following two decent efforts in 3M handicap chases this winter when runner up at Chepstow and Ascot. He is only a pound higher than his latest run and there appears little depth to this contest. The bottom weight Strictlyadancer looks interesting but his trainer Christian Williams is badly out of sorts at present and can’t be fancied until he’s shows some improvement in his form. TEA CLIPPER 1 point win @ 9/4 bet365

😱 for prestige racing meetings at Kempton and Aintree which offers good prize money, then have to agree with comments on thread that its a big negative for Racing in general 🐎.....small fields / late NRs / limited EW betting! Wish all well with your selections today / tomorrows racing with winners and maybe an upset or two 🤞

Small stakes fun punts . 1.05 Aintree - JANGO BAIE 5/1 William Hill . 1st 17/2 👍 1.28 Wincanton - NO HUBS NO HOOBS 11/4 Betvictor .2nd 2/1 2.38 Wincanton - TICKING TOM BOMB 6/1 eway bet365 ( 4 places ) 👎 3.05 Kempton - COURT IN THE ACT 7/2 bet365 . 1st 11/4 Good luck to all whatever their punting on today & enjoy ALLAHO romping home in the King George . some ok(ish) returns & racing has been ok , was impressed with the French horse at Kempton but the so called ' hype ' BIG 3 failed to pull up any trees in the King George , well done to Hanlon & Hewick .

For me i feel the racing is disappointing today as i like big field handicaps. Small fields on the tv races not for me i will save my powder for tomorrow!!

Merry Xmas all.

3.oo Leop- 1pt e/w DOIL KER 40/1 6places- In poor form but 2nd in this year just beaten less weight this time around and 40/1 6 places will do for me. From welsh nation thread.... 1pt e/w WAYFINDER 25/1 6places 1pt e/w DIDERO VALLIS 66/1 6places 4pts invested Total 6pts invested

Well done @The Equaliser& unlucky @waggy .

1pt e/w WAYFINDER 25/1 6places 1pt e/w DIDERO VALLIS 66/1 6places 4pts invested

I looked at Leopardstown & bar the 2.20 I was amazed at the amount of entries . Maybe the UK should take a leaf out of the Irish's book & have more days without jump racing & of a better quality reason why all the owners & money are going there rather than UK & why more trainers / owners & jockeys are also plying their trade in France with UK jumps offering pitiful winnings & if the sun's out it turns into glorified bumper racing . In hindsight now both Flat & Jumps UK racing is just turning into ' heritage ' racing with Cheltenham & Royal Ascot the be all & end all , shame really .

Yep thats twice in 3 days so questions need to be asked of the trainer, Its bad for the punter and bad for racing, also agree with @Tedthewolf all season we have suffered with poxy field sizes Flat is getting bad but jumps is on its last legs i think. Good punters put a lot of work in to find selections not much use if there are not many horses and then they pull the buggers out.

Pedrito 12 50 Duv/ 1/40th of a pt ew 16/1 Kotmash 12 45 Kem/ 1/40th of a pt ew 22/1 Making Headway 13 05 Ain// 1/40th of a pt ew 40/1 Sceau Royal 13 55 Ain/ 1/40th of a pt win 140/1 The Real Whacker 2 30 Kem/ 1/ 40th of a pt win 14/1 P/L +173.50pts

I am fookin intrigued and i been pondering since Satdi, i have had some crap bets in my time so why not one with a sideways squeak. Kerry Lee must know more about horses and Racing than all us punters and i can't fathom why the fook she didn't go for what i saw as easy money and an easy race with Nemean Lion i know this horse well from my French database when it was trained by Andre Fabre when it turned up on these shores to be sent jumping i tipped it up (last year) as one to keep on side as it could be a very serious horse if it took to hoping over hurdles, it did manage to win the welsh champion hurdle as well as a novice grade 2 beating Anyharminasking (foslas) and Colonel Harry (kelso). So i then re-watched all Constitution Hill's races and yes it is a seriously good horse but to my mind if you take away all the arse licking hype i think it can get beat and we all know sooner or later it will get beat because they all do. So i have had a Ben Crenshaw on at 40/1 and a few sick squids on at 33/1 and will see what the prices are like in the morning for BOG before deciding whether to make an even bigger dick of myself and shovel a bit more on. Like i said i have had worse bets. good luck to all those that are having 1pt on Constitution Hill at 1/8 you are brave beyond belief.....😉

Legend!

love the prices ted "just my cup of tea" 😀

I was going to wait till it got a bit higher but then both teams went 2-0 so I saw it through to the end. I picked the teams but not a great deal of science behind it, lady luck worked in my favour this time. I also had a couple of gos on the roulette and my number came up so another £170 profit. Over £1,000 profit now so it will be interesting to see if I get the dreaded "our trading team" letter.

Chambard 2 50Chp/ 1/40th of a pt ew 16/1 Wayfinder 2 50 Chp/ { had 1/40th of a pt ew 100/1 posted on NH horses to follow postings weeks ago } Mister Fogpatches 3 00 Lep/ 1/40th of a pt ew 80/1 Regal Steel 3 00 LP/ 1/40th of a pt ew 44/1 Emmpressive Lady 3 40 Km/ 1/40th of a pt ew 20/1 Not Available 3 25 Ch/ 1/40th of a pt ew 18/1

You are right, I'm sure this has been analysed to death so I suspect I will not find anything. Good point about the Covid season, the results do look like an outlier.

Taken Coventry to beat the improving Sheffield Wednesday (4/5 Bet365).Coventry have played better than their league position suggests and they are just starting to take more of their chances now, can still see them sneaking into the playoffs.

I will put a late runner in for @Carole-dawney if ok @Zilzalian 👍

I’d very much agree with your post mate

General Medrano 12:45 Kempton - 11/2 Bet 365 Favour And Fortune 13:10 Aintree - 10/1 general Karl Philippe 13:35 Wetherby 6/1 general Grandads Cottage 14:15 Aintree - 11/2 Bet 365 4 x singles - Acca or Lucky 15

Kelce not been the same player this season. Taylor Swift, although a very nice distraction, has definitely been a distraction to his game. Fair play to the Raiders, under this new coach, have pulled out some impressive results for sure.

Russian Ruler 12:45 Kempton (4/1). Caught the eye finishing strongly on chase debut at Newbury after getting outpaced. Step up to 2m 4f should be ideal and has a nice racing weight of 11-2 and gets useful 8lbs from the top 3. Also have a go at the forecast seeing as it's Christmas. General Medrado did nothing wrong when runner up to a useful one at Plumpton and Blow Your Wad did as well as could be expected against Le Patron at Sandown. They can finish 2nd and 3rd, forecast pays 90/1 with Bet365 0.75pts win @4/1 0.25pts forecast @ 90/1 Shocking run, pulled up entering the straight. P/L: +2.1pts

Took The Real Whacker AP 25/1,King George VI Chase _ one of the £5 free bets Anyway no time to study today for Boxing day - got 9 grandkids to visit today and looking forward to my Xmas dinner later. A Merry Xmas to all PL community, have a great day.

Monday 25/12/2023 No Racing HAPPY CHRISTMAS everyone have a good one

A big fourfold and roulette winnings; you might just have managed to find the formula to convince them you’re a mug punter and that they’ll get it all back! Well done, might have to give them a try myself.

Hope you held your nerve rather than do a @LEE-GRAYS Did you pick the teams or was it a pre built boost?

I'll probably do DIDERO VALLIS last minute as well as Kerry Lee's bottom weight & Domaine De L'isle all small each ways if the ground turns soft / heavy & not it's current good to soft , Sky Bet are paying 7 places .

I am struggling to make a return at the moment on the horses. The overround per runner is probably the same but most horse races are 5 runners + with an overall overround of 110% so if picking randomly I would be better picking the football. I've also analysed 15 years of La Liga and the results are similar, -2% home, -9% draw and -11% away La Liga muddies the water here with the favourite being the best bet at -2%, the outsider at -8% and the middle at -12% I will have a look and see how they vary season by season and try and put together some sort of system that I can then test.

2 have won and 2 are winning at half time Cash out is £157.20 Terrible value but should I cash out as part of my attempt to look like a mug punter ?

Nice one!

One down one to go!

I've taken Burnley +1.5 @1.93

Lucky 15 Ideallko @ 4/1 12:50 Sedgefield Giovinco @ 9/2 13:20 Kempton Allaho @ 15/8 14:30 Kempton Heros @ 3/1 14:50 Aintree Bet Ref.626/883 Stake£1.50 Est. Returns£75.46 Summary Total Stake £2.00 Total Estimated Returns £233.59 NB Acca = 0.50 win

Hunt, Mostert and Conner makes for an ok-ish Christmas Eve; had the day off yesterday. Taylor scored but Walker didn't so would've just broke even on the two bets where I couldn't get the prices.

+79.32 TV Races 12.45 Kemp - General Medrano 11/2 1.05 Ain - Farren Glory 11/1 1.20 Kemp - Il Est Francais 6/4 1.35 Weth - Into Overdrive 9/2 2.30 Kemp - Allaho 2/1 prices skybet 10x £2 doubles

2 winners last week (small profit) Running total -£82.14 Bet 94

Burnley +1.5AH is a good bet according to my model too. See other thread.

Hunt and Henry score Touchdowns 👍 Top work indeed.

Wolves 4.05 Intervention Bet365 4/1

I've rated this Chambard. 9.2 12/1 class 105 Big breakaway. 8.9 class 67 Complete unknown 8.7 class 90 I will do it 8.5 class 46 Super survivor. 8.2 class 43 Very difficult race as you'd imagine ......usually you'd favour the lower weights but this year the lower weights look quite poor so I have a strong feeling this will go to one of the listed above ....iwilldoit has a lot of weight but claimer will help and gets the distance so I can see it making the frame ..... Super survivor is well backed but doesn't look that good to me ... .looks very poor value and I'll overlook Complete unknown looked a decent horse over middle distances but when stepped up he weakened badly so a further step up again doesn't really look good .....opposed as a result Chambard is a horse on upgrade ....form looks strong .....class rating is strong ....average class rating for race is 70 so a class rating if 100 is well in .....looks a very strong Ew bet overall at decent odds Big breakaway is a very capable horse on a good day ....gets the distance but has lost his way recently .......is the type to bounce back suddenly but there's a risk if can .....possible Ew play Initially I'm going to back chambard Ew at 12/1 5pts Ew as I think that looks excellent value and make a decision on other two nearer the time Chambard 5ptsew 12/1 wil hill