MMFloors

Sheffield started promising but after red card it collapsed. Yoo bad. Up to next week

Discarded Luton. Too many key (as in; players who contribute a lot to the underlying stats of the model) injuries. Sheffield pending, waiting if Hamer is fit to play.

@StevieDay1983 According to my model Luton is still a good one and Sheffield also. I'll keep my eyes on both.

Home Away Model Home Hcp. Book H. Hcp. H. Hcp. (D)Adv. Brentford Liverpool 0,48 0,75 0,27 Burnley Arsenal 2,38 1,50 -0,88 Fulham Aston Villa 0,83 0,25 -0,58 Newcastle Utd Bournemouth -0,25 -0,50 -0,25 Nott'ham Forest West Ham -1,20 -0,25 0,95 Tottenham Wolves -1,63 -1,00 0,63 Manchester City Chelsea -1,62 -1,50 0,12 Sheffield Utd Brighton 0,54 1,00 0,46 Luton Town Manchester Utd -1,59 0,75 2,34 Everton Crystal Palace -0,14 -0,75 -0,61

Home Away Model Home Hcp. Book H. Hcp. H. Hcp. (D)Adv. Manchester City Everton 1,21 -2,00 -3,21 Fulham Bournemouth -0,37 -0,25 0,12 Liverpool Burnley -1,88 -2,25 -0,37 Luton Town Sheffield Utd -1,44 -0,75 0,69 Tottenham Brighton -0,44 -0,50 -0,06 Wolves Brentford 0,74 -0,25 -0,99 Nott'ham Forest Newcastle Utd 0,19 0,50 0,31 West Ham Arsenal 2,07 1,00 -1,07 Aston Villa Manchester Utd -1,79 -0,25 1,54 Crystal Palace Chelsea 0,49 0,50 0,01

Have seen the Arsenal against Liverpool match and Arsenal was way better.

No bets for me this round (no home team with >0AH and advantage >0.50) But I'm very suprised about model prediction Arsenal - Liverpool.

Home Away Model Home Hcp. Book H. Hcp. H. Hcp. (D)Adv. Everton Tottenham 0,57 0,25 -0,32 Brighton Crystal Palace -1,35 -0,75 0,60 Burnley Fulham 0,18 0,25 0,07 Newcastle Utd Luton Town -0,59 -1,25 -0,66 Sheffield Utd Aston Villa 1,93 1,00 -0,93 Bournemouth Nott'ham Forest -1,40 -0,75 0,65 Chelsea Wolves -1,48 -1,00 0,48 Manchester Utd West Ham -1,48 -0,75 0,73 Arsenal Liverpool -1,79 -0,25 1,54 Brentford Manchester City 1,07 1,25 0,18

From what I understand: - the R-squared ("R-kwadraat") should be as close to 1 as possible, but 0,7+ is a very good start. R-Squared is a statistical measure in a regression model that determines the proportion of variance in the dependent variable that can be explained by the independent variable. - the Significance ("Significantie F") should be as low as possible (close to zero) Significance is used to determine whether the relationship exists or not. For example, if the regression coefficient is significant at the .05 level, then it can be said that we can reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that a relationship exists between the dependent and independent variable(s). - the P-value ("P-waarde") should be as low as possible but at least under 0.05. The p-value of a linear regression model checks if there is a significant linear relationship or correlation between your predictors and the target value. If the p-value is low, this means its relationship is significant

I'm going to dive into Fulham. Edit1: have taken Fulham +0AH @1.84.

Hope the Newcastle line comes back to +1 ... actually I'm a bit late betting on Newcastle if I wanted too. Edit: I decided to pass this one.

I don't have a lot of mathematics skills but my model comes up with this output for regression analysis. And I know it's based on a small sample size (120).

Newcastle and Sheffield options, going to dive into it

I have take Luton Town @2.03 and Wolves @1.96

Blegh...and a injury time 0-2...burnley put up a good second half but the quick 0-1 behind was killing for them and my bet