JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends GIOFRA 2nd but well beaten . Newmarket 2.30 Group 2 4yo+ Jockey Club Stakes ----------------------------------------------------- 16/16 were 4 or 5 year-olds [16 6yo+ have ran in the past 10 runnings from a total of 64 runners , around 23%] 15/16 had ran in Group company LTO [10 in G1's] 14/16 finished in the first 4 LTO 14/16 had won over 12f 11/16 had won at Group level , a further 3 had won at Listed grade and had been placed in G1 or 2 , btn under 3l , 2011's winner had been btn just a head in a G3 10 of the last 12 who had a British rating were rated 105+ [ 9 were 111+ ] DUNADEN [6] and BLUE BAJAN [10] are above the age preference. SADEEK'S SONG [103] is rated below the 105 mark. AL KAZEEM has yet to win past 10f , ran and well btn in 2 12f races , and i would suggest his breeding is against it. MASKED MARVEL flopped LTO and i would overlook that but coupled with the fact he is probably better over further than 12f [ last 2 wins were 13 and 15f ] That leaves 3 to consider - FIORENTE , MEANDRE and QUEST FOR PEACE . QUEST FOR PEACE has been btn in both races on easy ground [albeit one was aG1] and has failed to win on 2 seasonal debut's FIORENTE has been off-track for 284 days and tbh i'm holding back from selecting any decent class runner from SMS until show winning form [ he has had winners but generally in Class 5/6 events . So the selection is the French raider MEANDRE who is a 4yo , won twice over 12f , won at Listed and GROUP 1 grade , is rated 122 and has been victorious on G/S going. Stake 10pts @ 9/4 with Stan James. Newmarket 3.45 Group 3 - 5f - 3yo+ Palace House Stakes ---------------------------------------------------------------- 13/13 rated 103+ 15/16 had won at Listed/Group class 10/16 were aged 4yo+ , but 3yo's have won 5 from only 32 runners in the past 16 season's. Take out ELUSIVITY , FOXY MUSIC , MOVE IN TIME , ASTROPHYSICAL JET on ratings. Take out HAMISH McGONAGALL and JONNY MUDBALL who have failed to win at Listed/Group grade. It would seem prudent to take out those would appear to be dis-advantaged by an easy surface - NIGHT CARNATION Next take a big pin ....... 2000 Guineas --------------- 16/16 born before 6th April 15/16 had ran over 7 / 8f LTO 15/16 ran no more than 5 times 14/16 sires had a winning ave of between 8.7f - 11.3f [ 8.3 was the lowest ] 14/16 won LTO [ 16/16 in the first 3] 12/16 were making their seasonal debuts 12/12 had a Racing Post Record [RPR] of 111+ An interesting stat from racecaller.com is that 10/11 winners were by a sire who’d won a group 1 over 6F to 8F Back tomorrow

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 2000 Guineas --------------- 16/16 born before 6th April 15/16 had ran over 7 / 8f LTO 15/16 ran no more than 5 times 14/16 sires had a winning ave of between 8.7f - 11.3f [ 8.3 was the lowest ] 14/16 won LTO [ 16/16 in the first 3] 12/16 were making their seasonal debuts 12/12 had a Racing Post Record [RPR] of 111+ An interesting stat from racecaller.com is that 10/11 winners were by a sire who’d won a group 1 over 6F to 8F ABTAL - Sires ave is only 7.6f BOOMERANG BOB - Born 9th April BORN TO SEA - Sire's ave only 7.6f BRONTERRE - Sire's ave only 7.3f CAMELOT - Sire's ave is 11.7f CASPAR NETSCHER - Born 11th May + ran 11 times COUP DE VILLE - Born 21st April + ran 7 times FENCING - One to consider FRENCH FIFTEEN - This will be his 8th career run HERMIVAL - Born 23rd April POWER - Sire's ave only 7.3f + ran 6 times PTOLEMAIC - Born 20th April REDACT - Born 26th April + ran 6 times RED DUKE - Sire's ave only 7.0f + ran 7 times SAIGON - Sire's ave only 7.7f + ran 7 times TALWAR - Sire's ave only 6.8f + ran 8 times TOP OFFER - One to consider TRUMPET MAJOR - Sire's ave on 7.7f + ran 9 times FENCING is by a sire who won a Grade 1 [Handicap] in the USA over 9f , also won a Group1 in Dubai but over 10f. Worryingly the sire is not noted for producing off-spring who can handle easy going , only 6 winners from 120 races on G/S to SOFT ground. TOP OFFER'S sire [DANSILI] was top class over 8f , winning at Group 2 and 3 grade while a narrowly beaten 2nd by three-quarters and one quarter of a length in two Group 1's. Loved give in the ground when racing. Selection - Hopefully able to handle the G/S better than most and bred to win at this distance , the late March born TOP OFFER gets the nod . Stake 10pts @ 14/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Another disastrous with the losing run now onto 16 bets which transfers to a loss for the Flat of 160pts :sad Lets hope things improve and until they do it's the older runner Group race's for me - Sunday - 2.35 Gr3 Dahlia Stakes 9f 4yo+ -------------------------------------------- 8/8 had won over at least 8f. 6/8 had won in at least LISTED company , the other 2 had been 2nd and 3rd Listed Grade. 7/8 were rated 97+ 6/8 had won at Newmarket , one other's had not run on the track . 4/8 were aged 5+ and that was despite only having 20 of the 57 runners in 8 season's Not a great deal to be learnt other than the 300/1 shot SOS BRILLIANTE has no chance !!! LAW OF THE RANGE has won at Listed grade but never over further than 8f , looks sure to lead which could set the race up for others in this small field. TIMEPIECE is the top rated runner and has a G1 win to her name but she has never won FTO in 3 season's started Fav in 2 of those] PRIMEVERE is a decent Listed race winner last season who was probably over-the-top in her last outing in a G3 in Ireland. Usually runs on faster ground she could be up there with LAW OF THE RANGE early on . CAPTIVATOR , although a winner in Listed company that was on the AW at Kempton earlier this season and was well btn in 2 previous attempts at that level . Beat LAW OF THE RANGE into 2nd that day and with the extra furlong seeming to be in CAPTIVATOR's favour a similar result with that runner looks on the cards but is she good enough to win this ? Fitness will at least be on her side but she has a good few pounds to find on the others. I think this is between J Gosden's IZZI TOP a G3 and Listed winner over 10/11f who has won on Soft ground . More in her favour is her apparent ability to be able to win FTO , she was only btn a half length on her racecourse debut as a 2yo in a 17 runner end of season Maiden at Doncaster , she then won FTO at Windsor [disqualified subsequently but to prohibative substance in sample] as a 3yo before going on to finish 3rd in the Oaks 2 runs after that . She was then given nearly a 5 month break after which she won her G3 on Soft ground over in France . KHAWLAH won a G2 and G3 over in Meydan in Feb /March and she should appreciate how the race will pan out and she like's to track the leaders . She has won at Newmarket over 7f but a slight concern is when she finished 3rd on G/S at the course over 8f . Despite carrying a 3lb penalty i'm trusting her past abilty to win after a long break and putting my faith into the OAKS 3rd IZZI TOP Stake 10pts @ 4/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends THE COMEBACK STARTS HERE !!! IZZI TOP 1st @ 3/1 :D

[BillyHills]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Nice one JTW, keep your chin up mate, the winners will soon start flowing again:clap

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers BH :ok 2.05 Chester G3 Huxley Stakes ------------------------------- Not a great deal to go on but what there is brings the field down to 3 possibles 7/7 had won at Group 2/3 grade 6/7 were rated 113+ [the other was rated 105] GLEN'S DIAMOND [106] , JUNOOB [101] , ST MORITZ [106] and MYPLACELATER [98] are below the preferred 113 rating. HUNTER'S LIGHT and MARCRET have never won at Group level. Of the 3 left WIGMORE HALL would appear to be at a disadvantage with regards to the Soft ground [won 4/6 on G/F and Firm while the other 2 wins were on Good ] PRINCE SIEGFRIED represents Godolphin and would appear to be their 2nd string [ not too worried about that tbh] , while he has won a G3 on G/S gorund at Windsor that has been his only Group win and is now a 6yo . Another negative for me is the fact he has never won before mid-July , ran 4 times before that period , and would appear to need a couple of races before winning. One definate advantage he has however is his liking for 10f , over which he has won 5 times . QUESTIONING has won a G3 on G/S , he has shown improved form this season after that win in the Earl Of Sefton by finishing 2nd on Soft going behind PENITENT in the G2 bet365 mile at Sandown finished 8l in front of the 3rd] I'm quite confidant that he will appreciate the ground but the concern is his lack of a win past 9f although in 2 of 3 runs over the trip he was reported as 'staying on' so i'm hopeful he will stay the trip esp as the others may well toil in the mud. Stake 8pts QUESTIONING @ 3/1 Stake 2pts PRINCE SEIGFRIED @ 14/1 [PP]

[Stevet1859]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Spot on with Ile De Re :clap won well too JTW

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends HAYDOCK 4.15 - 7F Listed 3yo+ -SPRING TROPHY [ upgraded in 2000 ] ------------------------------------------------------------- 12/12 had won or been placed in at least LISTED Grade 11/12 were 4-6yo's . 11/12 were rated 102+ [ 9 were 105+ ] 11/12 ran in at least Cl 2 grade LTO 10/12 had won over 7f and the other 2 had been btn under a length in at least 1 7f race they had competed in. 9/12 were Southern trained 8/12 had ran that season , with another having ran in Dubai in early March. Twice winner BEACON LODGE is now a 7yo . GRAMERCY and SMARTY SOCKS are only rated 101. FIREBEAM has not ran at Listed or higher Grade. Of the 3 left MAJESTIC MYLES has won on G/F 3 times and twice on Good , herefore i would imagine the G/S going here will not be in his favour and here's a quote from R Fahey on the sporting life website that confirms that fear - 'In contrast I'd be worried about the ground for Majestic Myles in the Network Group Spring Trophy. His best form is on a lively surface but there's nowhere else to run and he's ready for a race. We've never tried him on this testing ground and perhaps he will handle it but it has to be a worry.' He has won FTO in his 2 seasonal debuts . RED JAZZ has won at G2 and Listed grade , is a dual 7f winner and has won on G/S. He made a reappearance 42 days ago over in Meydan where he finished 3rd in the Godolphin Mile [G2] , a race in which he finished 3rd last season before running 5th behind CANFORD CLIFFS in the G1 Lockinge . This is [in theory ] a far easier race and certainly represents a significant drop in the Grade of race he has been competing in the past 2 years. He holds entries in two group 1's and a group 3. SCARF is a Listed winner from his day over in South Africa where he also won on G/S and Heavy ground , so no worries on that score . This will be only his 2nd run in the UK after finishing 6th of 7 in a Listed race at Kempton [AW]. However he has a lot to find on RED JAZZ who is rated 7lb's higher but may run into a place . Stake 10pts RED JAZZ @ 9/4 [bet365]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends RED JAZZ 1st :loon

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Weds - 3.00 YORK Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes 6f 3yo+ [ race upgraded to Grp 2 in 2003 ] -------------------------- 14/14 had won at least at LISTED level 14/14 rated 105 + 13/14 had won at least 3 races in their career 12/14 had won at 6f 11/14 were 4 or 5 y-olds

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Weds - 7.20 NAAS - 10f Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes - 3yo Fillies and Mares --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11/11 were returned in the top 4 of the market 10/11 had ran no longer than 17 days previous [ last seasons winner was making her seasonal debut] 10/11 had ran that season with 8 of those being placed 1st , 2nd or 3rd LTO 10/11 were 3y-olds Since 2004 when the race was upgraded to group status all 7 winners had won at least once previously. Some strong stats here , with the 3y-old stat very strong imo . In the past 11 runnings there have been 50 3yo's and 41 4yo+ , but there has been only 1 older winner. J BOLGER has won 4 as has J OXX with A O'BRIEN only winning once

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Weds - 7.20 NAAS - 10f Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes - 3yo Fillies and Mares --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11/11 were returned in the top 4 of the market 10/11 had ran no longer than 17 days previous [ last seasons winner was making her seasonal debut] 10/11 had ran that season with 8 of those being placed 1st , 2nd or 3rd LTO 10/11 were 3y-olds Since 2004 when the race was upgraded to group status all 7 winners had won at least once previously. Some strong stats here , with the 3y-old stat very strong imo . In the past 11 runnings there have been 50 3yo's and 41 4yo+ , but there has been only 1 older winner. J BOLGER has won 4 as has J OXX with A O'BRIEN only winning once

Well basically the only runners to omit are those who have ran further back than 17 days which are ALOOF [35 days] , PRINCESS HIGHWAY [49] and SHEBELLA [48]. WAS is making her seasonal debut so allowed in . AARAAS has been well beaten in a G3 and a Listed race this season , both on 'easy' ground. WAS represents the O'Brien stable who have had 14 runners in this since it was upgraded to G3 back in 2004 and have only had 1 winner . I'm always cautious about the yards FTO runners as the vast majority improve for the run , she does hold multiple entires in G1 and G2 events so is obviously well regarded but i'm going to take her on here with ... J Bolger's runner is CLEOFILA , already a winner over 7f and last ran 17 days ago , She was well held in that very slow run Listed event at Navan which probably proved to be a nice work-out . The better ground will hopefully help this multiple G1 entered Filly [currently 40's for the Oaks] and the 11/1 on offer is worth investing in imo. Stake 10PTS @ 11/1 CLEOFILA

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Weds - 3.00 YORK Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes 6f 3yo+ [ race upgraded to Grp 2 in 2003 ] -------------------------- 14/14 had won at least at LISTED level 14/14 rated 105 + 13/14 had won at least 3 races in their career 12/14 had won at 6f 11/14 were 4 or 5 y-olds

The Trends only remove a handful of runners , so no bet

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends CURRAGH 2.40 - 6f - Group 3 Greenlands Stakes 3yo+ ---------------------------------------------------------- 14/14 rated 100+ 14/14 had won at least twice in it's career 13/14 were distance winners 12/14 had ran that season , with 7 finishing 1st - 3rd LTO 11/14 had won at LISTED level and above 12/14 were 4y-old + [3yo's have represented around 30% of the runners but have only had 2 wins] 7/14 were trained in GB Remove the 3yo's - CRUSADE , NEPHRITE , EXPERIENCE and FIRE LILY. SIX OF HEARTS , KATLA and BULBUL are rated below 100. That leaves 5 - THE REAPER has only won once on Turf from 19 starts but been placed in 2nd and 4rd spot on 8 occasions which says to me he meets at least one better in each race he runs. SANTO PADRE won his first stakes race LTO but that was after 14 attempts , as an 8yo he surely will find it too much to winhis first Group race here . The very same argument counters JIMMY STYLES chance of winning with 1 stakes win from 15 and now 8yo. HITCHENS won this for us last season but he has not ran since March 31st over in Meydan and i'm always wary of horse's who come back from there , since joining the Barron yard he has won within 21 days of his previous outing ...he last ran 56 days ago. That leaves us with TIDDLYWINKS who finished 2nd to Hitchens last year but with that one not having raced for nearly 2 months i reckon TIDDYWINKS could have revenge this time . He finished 3rd in the Duke of York in 2011 before being beaten by Hitchens but this year he won that race and comes here in fine fettle and with the Distance and groun in his favour he has a good chance of taking this , a slight worry about his low draw , but the 6/1 is good enough for me . Stake 10pts @ 6/1 PP [bog]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

CURRAGH 2.40 - 6f - Group 3 Greenlands Stakes 3yo+ ---------------------------------------------------------- 14/14 rated 100+ 14/14 had won at least twice in it's career 13/14 were distance winners 12/14 had ran that season , with 7 finishing 1st - 3rd LTO 11/14 had won at LISTED level and above 12/14 were 4y-old + [3yo's have represented around 30% of the runners but have only had 2 wins] 7/14 were trained in GB Remove the 3yo's - CRUSADE , NEPHRITE , EXPERIENCE and FIRE LILY. SIX OF HEARTS , KATLA and BULBUL are rated below 100. That leaves 5 - THE REAPER has only won once on Turf from 19 starts but been placed in 2nd and 4rd spot on 8 occasions which says to me he meets at least one better in each race he runs. SANTO PADRE won his first stakes race LTO but that was after 14 attempts , as an 8yo he surely will find it too much to winhis first Group race here . The very same argument counters JIMMY STYLES chance of winning with 1 stakes win from 15 and now 8yo. HITCHENS won this for us last season but he has not ran since March 31st over in Meydan and i'm always wary of horse's who come back from there , since joining the Barron yard he has won within 21 days of his previous outing ...he last ran 56 days ago. That leaves us with TIDDLYWINKS who finished 2nd to Hitchens last year but with that one not having raced for nearly 2 months i reckon TIDDYWINKS could have revenge this time . He finished 3rd in the Duke of York in 2011 before being beaten by Hitchens but this year he won that race and comes here in fine fettle and with the Distance and groun in his favour he has a good chance of taking this , a slight worry about his low draw , but the 6/1 is good enough for me . Stake 10pts @ 6/1 PP [bog]

1st @ 8/1 :cigar bog :ok

[gord]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends well done that man proving once again stats do work incredable

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends well done that man!!! another strike for the trends!!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers guys :D , a busy week ahead starting with Sandown's evening meeting on Thursday SANDOWN 7.10 - Group 2 16f - Henry II Stakes ----------------------------------------------- 16/16 were rated 106+ 16/16 had a top 3 placing in Listed/Group class 16/16 had won at least at 12f 14/16 had ran that season , with 11 running in the Yorkshire Cup or the Sagaro Stakes. Only 1 Fav has won in the past 13 runnings , odds range from 1/2 to 20/1. SANDOWN 7.45 Brig Gerard Stakes 10f ------------------------------------------- 15/16 aged 4 - 6y-old [ 13 were 4 or 5 ] 15/16 were returned at 12/1 or Under 13/16 had ran that season with 9 finishing 1st or 2nd LTO . 13/14 have won at least 3 races 13/14 ran in at least LISTED company LTO 13/14 had won [ 8 ] or been placed at 10f [3] 11/13 with BHA rating were rated 107+ 11/14 have won at LISTED/G3 level or at least been placed at Grp 1/2

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Fri - 1.40 Epsom Group 3 8f 114yds Fillies + Mares 3yo+ [upgraded to G3 in 2004] ------------------------------------------------------------- 8/8 were 7/1 or under in the betting [ 6 clear favs ] 8/8 had won at LISTED class or above 8/8 were rated 102+ 8/8 were aged 4 or 5yo , they represented approx 66% of the runners , No 3yo's have won from the remaining 33% of entries. 8/8 had won at least over 8f 5/8 had ran that season . Sat - HAYDOCK - 2.35 - 7f - Group 3 4y-old+ ------------------------------------------------- 10/10 were rated 107 9/10 were returned in top 3 in the betting 9/10 had ran that season , 8 of which had ran within 21 days. 9/10 had won or been btn under a length in a Listed/Group race 9/10 were Southern trained 8/10 had won over 7f , the other 2 were running over the distance for the first time but both had won over 8/9f Sat - 4.40 HAYDOCK 6f - Listed Cecil Frail Stakes 3yo+ -------------------------------------------------------- 12/13 were rated 94+ 11/13 had ran that season 12/13 were Southern /Irish trained 11/13 had won /been placed in at least Listed grade 6 x 3yo's have won 7 x 4yo's+ have won.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SANDOWN 7.10 - Group 2 16f - Henry II Stakes ----------------------------------------------- 16/16 were rated 106+ 16/16 had a top 3 placing in Listed/Group class 16/16 had won at least at 12f 14/16 had ran that season , with 11 running in the Yorkshire Cup or the Sagaro Stakes. Only 1 Fav has won in the past 13 runnings , odds range from 1/2 to 20/1. BLUE BAJAN [103] , OLD HUNDRED [95] and ZUIDER ZEE [105] are rated below the preferred 106. IBICENKO has not won past 11f. Several are having their first outing of the season - LEY HUNTER who would need the ground to have a great deal more give in it. AAIM TO PROSPER who has never won FTO and also has failed to win a Stakes race and age is surely now against him. ASKAR TAU has failed to win FTO in 5 seasons CHIBERTA KING has won FTO and also was a close 2nd of 17 in another seasonal debut BUT he has only won one Listed event and been soundly beaten in 3 Group races. That leaves 2 to consider , the obvious is the potential Fav OPINION POLL who has won 3 Group 2's a G3 and only been placed outside the first 3 on 2 occasions from 17 Stakes runs , on that basis is the 'Class' horse in the race . A winner 4 times over 2m the distance is not a concern. However there are a couple of worries i have for the Fav in a race where Favs have a shocking record. The first [and this is probably a personal opinion but i think there's validity in the argument] and that is the fact he last ran 61 days ago over in Meydan and i feel runners from that meeting are best taken on FTO. Secondly is the fact that although he has won once on G/F he generally runs of Good or softer , on G/F he has a record of 3,7,3,3,1 and with forecast going G/F and no rain forecast he may well be suscepible to a runner who likes to hear his hooves rattle and that could well be John Dunlop's TIMES UP. A dual Listed winner he may well be inferior on form to OPINION POLL but has a few decent positives in relation to tomorrow's race. A winner over 2m and , more importantly , a winner no less than 4 times on ground officially described as G/F. Also in his favour is the fact he last ran 13 days ago in the Yorkshire Cup [ he has won at the 2nd time of asking in his last 2 season's] Another stat to note is Ryan Moore's 21% strike-rate on Dunlop's runners over the past 5 seasons. Stake 10pts TIMES UP @ 4/1 bet365 bog SANDOWN 7.45 Brig Gerard Stakes 10f ------------------------------------------- 15/16 aged 4 - 6y-old [ 13 were 4 or 5 ] 15/16 were returned at 12/1 or Under 13/16 had ran that season with 9 finishing 1st or 2nd LTO . 13/14 have won at least 3 races 13/14 ran in at least LISTED company LTO 13/14 had won [ 8 ] or been placed at 10f [3] 11/13 with BHA rating were rated 107+ 11/14 have won at LISTED/G3 level or at least been placed at Grp 1/2 SAGRAMOR and especially SOS BRILLANTE are well below the preferred 107 mark. CARLTON HOUSE has not ran for 340 days and although the yard had been finding the winners it has to be said not at the rate SMS was experiencing in previous season's. HUNTERS LIGHT has ran this season but was only 6th and has yet to win at Group level. COLUMBIAN ploughed through the Heavy going over C/D to win the a G3 last time and before that won in similar conditions in France . He has won on ground described as G/F but the time was nearly 2 secs above standard and the majority of his runs have been on much easier ground than he faces here. That leaves I'M A DREAMER who , at first glance , should have a negative against her as she has failed to win over 10f but she has only ran twice over 1m2f [ his last 2 runs] but was only btn a head in the penultimate race while her 3rd LTO in the G2 Middleton stakes was her seasonal debut so valid excuses for not discounting her chance here. More eyecatching however is that this represents a distinct drop in class for her as her last 5 races have been Group 1/2 events inwhich she performed with distinction esp when 2nd in the G1 EP Taylor Stakes over in Woodbine . Her last win was a G3 at Newmarket on her 2011 debut and that was the last time she ran in this grade. She gets a valuable 4lb allowance from the Males . Stake 10pts I'M A DREAMER @ 4/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Both selections placed 4th tonight at Sandown. Fri - 1.40 Epsom Group 3 8f 114yds Fillies + Mares 3yo+ [upgraded to G3 in 2004] ------------------------------------------------------------- 8/8 were 7/1 or under in the betting [ 6 clear favs ] 8/8 had won at LISTED class or above 8/8 were rated 102+ 8/8 were aged 4 or 5yo , they represented approx 66% of the runners , No 3yo's have won from the remaining 33% of entries. 8/8 had won at least over 8f 5/8 had ran that season . BOASTFUL , NIGHT LILY and VALENCHA are rated below the 102 mark. BAREFOOT LADY has tey to win past 7f. Of the remaining 4 only the German trained NAVARRA QUEEN has had a recent outing but although a G3 winner in Italy i find it hard to fancy her chances esp with a jockey who has no experience of Epsom on board. CLINICAL was 3rd in this last year when only a 3yo but her Listed wins have been on the AW and over in Germany , it's always difficult to assess a Mark Prescott runner but on form she has something to find with the other 2 imo. JOVIALITY has won a G3 and then went onto compete in a couple of G1's and a G2 the best run was when btn just over 2l in the G1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket. This should be more her grade and the Gosden yard is in great form right now . LAY TIME progressed nicely last season and won a Listed event on her last run , a winner FTO last season she has a major chance if she has more improvement and is fit-to-win but i just get the feeling JOVIALITY has a better chance as she has winning form in Group grade and this is a step down in class from what she was up against last year. Stake 10pts JOVIALITY @ 7/2 BET 365 BOG

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Getting closer !! JOVIALITY was 2nd . Sat - HAYDOCK - 2.35 - 7f - Group 3 4y-old+ ------------------------------------------------- 10/10 were rated 107 9/10 were returned in top 3 in the betting 9/10 had ran that season , 8 of which had ran within 21 days. 9/10 had won or been btn under a length in a Listed/Group race 9/10 were Southern trained 8/10 had won over 7f , the other 2 were running over the distance for the first time but both had won over 8/9f DONCASTER ROVER , GOSSAMER SEED , SIX OF HEARTS and PERFECT TRIBUTE are rated below the preferred 107 mark. MAJESTIC MYLES is Northern trained ROYAL ROCK has not ran for 63 days and as an 8yo must be considered past his best. RED JAZZ will start fav for this and as a three time winner over 7f , once over C+D , the conditions suit . A G2 winner back in 2010 , he appreciated the drop down to Listed level when winning on his seasonal debut over C/D 21 days ago. The step up a grade to G3 shouldn't be too much of a problem . The other runner in the race is PASTORAL PLAYER and although he has failed to place in any of the 3 stakes races he has ran in , he has won a couple of Cl 2 Handicaps so has the potential to progress in what looks like to be not the strongest of G3's. A winner over 7f and on fast ground imo the soft going he encountered on his seasonal debut 3 weeks ago was against him as was a poorish draw [something that could be argued about 4 of his past 5 runs] so condtions should favour him this time . RED JAZZ is the one to beat but at the odds i prefer the chance of PASTORAL PLAYER @ 5/1 [betvictor bog] Sat - 4.40 HAYDOCK 6f - Listed Cecil Frail Stakes 3yo+ -------------------------------------------------------- 12/13 were rated 94+ 11/13 had ran that season 12/13 were Southern /Irish trained 11/13 had won /been placed in at least Listed grade 6 x 3yo's have won 7 x 4yo's+ have won. I'll leave this alone as there's too many 3yo's

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Getting closer !! JOVIALITY was 2nd . Sat - HAYDOCK - 2.35 - 7f - Group 3 4y-old+ ------------------------------------------------- 10/10 were rated 107 9/10 were returned in top 3 in the betting 9/10 had ran that season , 8 of which had ran within 21 days. 9/10 had won or been btn under a length in a Listed/Group race 9/10 were Southern trained 8/10 had won over 7f , the other 2 were running over the distance for the first time but both had won over 8/9f DONCASTER ROVER , GOSSAMER SEED , SIX OF HEARTS and PERFECT TRIBUTE are rated below the preferred 107 mark. MAJESTIC MYLES is Northern trained ROYAL ROCK has not ran for 63 days and as an 8yo must be considered past his best. RED JAZZ will start fav for this and as a three time winner over 7f , once over C+D , the conditions suit . A G2 winner back in 2010 , he appreciated the drop down to Listed level when winning on his seasonal debut over C/D 21 days ago. The step up a grade to G3 shouldn't be too much of a problem . The other runner in the race is PASTORAL PLAYER and although he has failed to place in any of the 3 stakes races he has ran in , he has won a couple of Cl 2 Handicaps so has the potential to progress in what looks like to be not the strongest of G3's. A winner over 7f and on fast ground imo the soft going he encountered on his seasonal debut 3 weeks ago was against him as was a poorish draw [something that could be argued about 4 of his past 5 runs] so condtions should favour him this time . RED JAZZ is the one to beat but at the odds i prefer the chance of PASTORAL PLAYER @ 5/1 [betvictor bog]

PASTORAL PLAYER 1st :cigar

[mowgli77]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Well done with Pastoral Player, seemed to win with plenty in hand and Red Jazz was a massive disappointment. :ok

[Stevet1859]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends :clap Spot on JTW

[BillyHills]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Nice price JTW, won easy too:clap

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Tuesday - KINGS STAND STAKES [c/o Racecaller ] --------------------------------- 9/10 had won over 6f. 9/10 had won over 5f 8/10 had ran between 2-4 times that season 8/10 were placed either 1st or 2nd LTO 8/10 had won that season 8/10 had won a Group race The record of runners drawn 16+ is 0-5-31. 4 Australian runners have won , all were G1 winners in their homeland 2 were French 4 were UK trained and 3 were rated 112+ Take out those rated below 112 - DINKUM DIAMOND , MEDICEAN MAN , HAMISH MCGONAGALL , MONSIEUR JOE , SPIRIT QUARTZ , STONE OF FOLCA , NIGHT CARNATION , BAPAK CHINTA , STEPPER POINT , CALEDONIA LADY and PONTY ACCLAIM. ARMOUR PROPRE has ran only once this season and has never won at 6f. JOY AND FUN has never won over 5 or 6f. MASAHMAH has never won beyond 5f and has ran only once this season , finishing 8th. PROHIBIT has failed to finish better than 4th in 4 runs this season. SECRET ASSET has never won above Class 2 grade. SOLE POWER has only won at 5f. TANGERINE TREES has ran only once this season , finishing 7th. MARGOT DID has ran 3 times this season , well btn in all 3. WIZZ KID has failed to win over 6f. That leaves 3 in the shape of BATED BREATH [should run but would prefer the ground a good bit firmer ] and the same could be said about the Aussie challenger , ORTENSIA but she cannot be ignored due to the record of Southern Hemisphiere runners and her sex has a 10 year record of 2-5-31 from 17.5% of runners. I have a slight preference at the odds for the Hong Kong runner LITTLE BRIDGE who has winning form on g/s but has yet to add a G1 to his c.v bu this could be his chance. Stake 6pts LITTLE BRIDGE @ 11/1 Stake 4pts @ ORTENSIA 5/1 Both bog bet365

[jackeychan14]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends :clap:clap:clap:clapQUALITY

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends well done mate, you had the 1-2 in yur final 3 also

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers guys :ok Wed - PRINCE of WALES STAKES Grp 1 10f [upgraded to Grp 1 in 2000] ------------------------------------------------- 11/11 returned at 17/2 or under , 3 Favs. 10/11 were distance winners , last season's winner REWILDING was having his 1st race over 10f but had won at 11f 10/11 had won at Grp 1 level , BYWORD [2010] had been btn a half length in her sole G1 race. 11/11 were 4 or 5 y-olds , but they represented over 90% of the runners. 10/11 had ran that season with 6 finishing in the first 3. 10/11 ran outside the UK last time out 10/11 ran in Grp 1 class LTO 9/9 with a BHA rating were rated 117+ , 7 were 120+. The ratings remove BIG BLUR KITTEN , COLUMBIAN , CITY STYLE , FARHH , RELIABLE MAN , ROBIN HOOD , SRI PUTRA and WIGMORE HALL. CARLTON HOUSE has yet to win a G1. It's hard to ignore the chance that SO YOU THINK has in this race , a 9-times Group 1 winner and 7 wins over 10f. The only glimmer of hope for anyone wanting to lay him is the fact he has been beaten twice at Ascot and last season's renewal was one of those when returned at 4/11 fav. He's available at around even's but at the odds i'm going to take a chanceon the horse i selected in last years race and thats PLANTEUR. A G1 and 10f winner he was running on over 9f lto over at Longchamp in a G1. Stake 5pts EW @ 10/1 with Laddies , 1/4 the odds 1,2,3.