JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends CHAMPION HURDLE ----------------------- 11/11 had finished in the first 4 in a hurdle race at a previous FESTIVAL HURDLE RACE 11/11 had ran within the past 50 days [ in fact the prev 17 had all ran in that Calender year] 9/11 had ran between 3-5 times that season 10/11 had ran at least 10 times over Hurdles 9/11 had won a G1 hurdle Apply all the Trends and we're left with 3 BINOCULAR and CELESTIAL HALO . With the forecast going being no worse than Good that should be enough to remove CELESTIAL HALO from the equation . So quite simply the selection is BINOCULAR @ 9/2

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Weds - RSA CHASE ---------------------- 11/11 finished 1st or 2nd last time out 11/11 had won at 2m5f+ 11/11 had last ran no longer than 55 days previously 10/11 had ran in 3 to 5 chases 9/11 had finished in the first 3 in either a Grade 1 or 2 chase 9/11 were IRISH bred , the other 2 were French-bred's 9yo have a record of 0-0-17 in 10 runnings Apply the above and we're left with 2 in the shape of BOB'S WORTH and SIR DES CHAMPS. A closer look and i find it hard to separate the 2 so i suggest split stakes on both @ 10/3 and 4/1 respectively * SIR DES CHAMPS a nr so straight win BOBS WORTH

[cantspell]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

ARKLE TROPHY ------------------ 19/21 were rated 150+ 11/11 were returned at odds at 11/1 or Under , in fact if i've got it right this stat goes back at least 20 years. However only 2 favs have won in those 20 runnings. 10/11 had finished in the first 2 in ALL completed Chase's 10/11 had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase [9/10 had been 1st or 2nd in a Grade 1 or 2 Hurdle] 10/11 were rated 140+ over hurdles 7/11 had previously won at Cheltenham [ 2 were making their course debut] Applying the first 5 Trends leaves us with SPRINTER SACRE and CUE CARD . The last leaves us facing the fact that SPRINTER SACRE failed to stay on after last in the Supreme Novices here last season while CUE CARD has won twice , albeit over Hurdles and in the Bumper. With that doubt mind coupled with the poor record of the Favourite i'm going for CUE CARD @ 6/1

Love these trends JTW, does the fact this race is shorter than the Supreme and is over fences should mean a less frenetic pace than the Supreme make a difference?

[cpo]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends I have a question JTW about the Arkle trends. I am guessing Al Ferof failed on the not finishing in the first 2 on all completed chase's. I was just wondering how many of the 11 Arkle winners had run in a grade 1 chase out of Novice company as Al Ferof did last time out?

[DLL]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

I have a question JTW about the Arkle trends. I am guessing Al Ferof failed on the not finishing in the first 2 on all completed chase's. I was just wondering how many of the 11 Arkle winners had run in a grade 1 chase out of Novice company as Al Ferof did last time out?

I had a look at this myself the other day 2011 - Captain Chris - 4 Novice Chases 2010 - Sizing Europe - 3 Novice Chases, 1 Beginner Chase 2009 - Forpadydeplasterer - 3 Novice Chases, 1 Beginner Chase 2008 - Tidal Bay - 4 Novice Chases 2007 - My Way De Solzen - 3 Novice Chases, 1 Beginner Chase 2006 - Voy Por Ustedes - 4 Novice Chases 2005 - Contraband - 4 Novice Chases 2004 - Well Chief - 1 Novice Chase 2003 - Azertyuiop - 3 Novice Chases 2002 - Moscow Flyer - 3 Novice Chases, 2 Beginner Chases 2001 - No Race 2000 - Tiutchev - 2 Novice Chases 1999 - Flagship Uberalles - 4 Novice Chases 1998 - Champleve - 2 Novice Chases 1997 - Or Royal - 3 Novice Chases 1996 - Ventana Canyon - 2 Novice Chases, 1 Beginner Chase, 2 Open Graded Chases (F,2) As you can see the last winner to race outside of novice company was way back in 1996. But I'm not sure how much this tells us as I don't know how many beaten horses have actually ran in open company, it's probably not a common practice.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends So far - BINOCULAR - 4th CUE CARD - 2nd BOBS WORTH - 1st 2/24 were rated below 141 Top weight has a record of 0-1-13 11/11 had won over at least 2m3f 11/11 had won at least at Cl3 level 11/11 had previously ran at Cheltenham [3 won, 5 had been placed] 10/11 had ran in the past 45 days 9/11 had won no more than 2 Handicap Chase's 8/11 had been placed in the first 4 in a Graded Chase Selection - ew bet MAD MOOSE @ 50/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends MAD MOOSE - 8th GOLD CUP ------------ No runner older than 10 has won since WHAT A MYTH in 1969 In the past 10 running their record is 0-6-48. 10/10 had ran in the Lexus or King George , of which 9 were 1st or 2nd in either 10/10 had ran in between 2-5 races that season 10/10 had won a Grade 1 Chase 10/10 came from the first 3 in the betting 9/10 had won a Grade 1 Chase and 9 had won a G1 or 2 that season [ Imperial Commander was the exception when btn a sh-hd by Kauto Star] 9/10 had ran between 6-11 Chases in their career 9/10 had previously finished in the first 3 at the Festival Age removes KAUTO STAR , MIDNIGHT CHASE and THE MIDNIGHT CLUB. BURTON PORT has raced only once while THE GIANT BOLSTER has had 6 races. CARRUTHERS , CHINA ROCK , DIAMOND HARRY , KNOCKARA BEAU , TIME FOR RUPERT and WIERD AL have never won at Grade 1 level , while WHAT A FRIEND has won at G 1/2 but not this season. QUEL ESPRIT and SYNCHRONISED have never finished in the first 3 at the Festival Sorry to be boring but it all points to LONG RUN @ SP [come on KAUTO for pure emotion :loon ]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends TRIUMPH HURDLE ------------------ Price Since the introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile H’cap Hurdle to the Festival in 2005 this race has been won by one of the first 4 in the betting every year. 10/10 ran within 45 days 10/10 had ran no more than 6 times over hurdles 10/10 had won at Cl3 or better 9/10 won LTO 9/10 had ran on the Flat [12F+ ] and 9 were sired by a G1 winning sire Irish-trained runners: 1-7-59 Apply the above and your left with GRUMETI @ 7/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Will tidy up the figures for the past NH season with only the Grand National left of any real interest for me . 3.25 - Lingfield - WINTER DERBY [stats c/o racecaller.com] ------------------------------- This race has een run 14 times . It was upgraded to Group 3 status in 2006 from Listed grade. 11/13 were rated 100+ , with one not having had a race in the UK , but was a Listed winner in Italy . Since 2006 6/6 winners were rated 105+ and 17 of the 18 placed runners were rated 100+. 6/6 were rated between 4 and 6yo with only 1 winner aged over 6 [7yo] in previous 14 runnings. 10/10 had won already on the All Weather 10/10 had won at Class 2 grade with 5 of the last 6 having won at Listed or Group level. 10/10 had won one of their last 2 AW runs 9/10 had won over 10f , the other won at 9f. 8/10 were returned at 8/1 or shorter inc 5 of the last 6 5 Fillies /Mares have ran in the past 6 with 2 being placed , a 2nd @ 7/2f and a 3rd @ 4/1 the others being 20/1 , 33/1 and 66/1 , One of the strongest Trends is the fact that you need consider only those rated over 100 which removes half the field of 14 . Age is a negative for PREMIO LOCO coupled with the fact that he has never won past 8f [only one run at 10f and that was when 2nd in this race back in 2009] and he's giving at least 5lb's to every other runner. SOORAH ran 4th over 9f at Wolves on her 2nd career outing but since then has been running almost exclusively over 8f [won 4 times ] OUR JOE MAC has not won above Class 2 grade and worryingly wears a visor for the first time tomorrow . The Irish raider , VIVACIOUS VIVIENNE is a strange one , a winner of a 51k Handicap and a 37k Handicap , she has been campaigned at distances between 8 and 14f and been raised 24lb since joining D Kinsella's stable. She has ran FAME AND GLORY to half a length in a Listed race and wasn't too far behind BANIMPIRE twice in G3 and Listed races but otherwise her best attempts have been in Handicaps. An outing over a probable inadequate 8f 22 days ago should have brought her on but the trainer has only had 6 winners from 67 runners on the Flat in Ireland over a 5 year period and this is his first runner in the UK in that period .......she has won on the AW at Dundalk , one of only 2 AW career runs. BLACK SPIRIT is another who has yet to win past 8f but at least has been regularly campaigned over 10f inc a couple of placings at Group 2 and 3 grade so i'll give leeway there. He makes his AW debut here and recieve's 5lb for a 1 and half length beating from CAI SHEN back in early September . He was only beaten a sh-hd on his seasonal debut in 2010 so hopefully he should come to hand early. CAI SHEN makes his debut on the AW here , a winner over 10f at Cl2 grade he has also been placed at Listed level . Being trained by R Hannon commands respect and winning first time out last season is another positive. MYPLACELATER has won at Liasted grade and has won at Wolves on the AW. Formerly trained by D Elsworth she makes her debut for R Fahey here with P Hanaghan on board . Reading a quote from the trainer on the Sporting Life website gives me cause for concern - "Myplacelater maybe wants a bit further but she's in good order, I'm happy with her. "She's got some nice form in the book but most of it seems to be on soft ground. "We're keen to give her a run. She's got a good little slot (drawn three) and they should go a good gallop.' Which to me says 'she needs the run and she'll be better for it' ....of course i may be wrong but the warning lights have been lit. Summary - The fact that BLACK SPIRIT has never ran on an artificial surface is a concern as he usually wears a tounge-tie so i'll pass him by. CAI SHEN has been well backed and must command respect coming from R HANNON'S yard and the fact that he won FTO last season. VIVACIOUS VIVIENNE could be the fly in the ointment , a decent Handicapper she seems to come to hand early and i can't help wonder why the stable has went to the expense of bringing her over here other than the fact they believe she has a good chance of winning ! That pipe-opener at Dundalk could be the difference for her . Stake 5pts EW VIVACIOUS VIVIENNE @ 20/1 , the females have a decent record in this and together with her obvious ability and fitness i'm hopeful the stable have got this right ......[famous last words ]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Sunday - PARK EXPRESS STAKES - Grp 3 [stats c/o racecaller] --------------------------------------- Upgraded to G3 in 2006 No obvious age advantage with a 50/50 split between 3yo's and the older generation 6/6 had won at 7 or 8f [5 at 8f ] 6/6 had won at least once 5/6 had won or been placed in a Listed or Group race 5/6 were drawn no higher than stall 6 Only 1 jt-fav has won from 6 .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends VIVACIOUS VIVIENNE unp , was well backed this morning but was off the bridle 4f out :( Profit for NH season [Grand National still to come] = 38.50pts 5 winners from 35 selections as well as one EW place return .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Sunday - PARK EXPRESS STAKES - Grp 3 [stats c/o racecaller] --------------------------------------- Upgraded to G3 in 2006 9/9 never won by a horse drawn above stall 6 No obvious age advantage with a 50/50 split between 3yo's and the older generation 6/6 had won at 7 or 8f [5 at 8f ] 6/6 had won at least once 5/6 had won or been placed in a Listed or Group race 5/6 were drawn no higher than stall 6 and only 1 runner has been placed from the 2 highest stalls in 6 runnings Only 1 jt-fav has won from 6 .

MIRANDA'S GIRL is rated only 79. AARAAS has not won past 6f. CRYSTAL GAL , HOMECOMING QUEEN , CHRSANTHEMUM , KISSABLE and JANEY MUDDLES have the draw to overcome TWIRL has not ran at Listed or Group level and being by Galileo might need further imo? A P O'Brien has had 3 close 2nd's from 4 runners in the past 6 runnings of this and his runners usually appreciate their first run of the season nowadays. That leaves 4 - LIBY'S DREAM improved from a Class 4 2nd to win a Listed race on the AW last time and will have a race-fitness advantage but DASCOMBE has had 8 runners in Ireland and all have failed to win. PRINCESS SINEAD , EZALLI and ANAM ALLTA are the 3 remaining runners . Will make the selection later .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Job made easier by the withdrawal of EZALLI . Happy to take on O'Briens here . Stake 7pts ANAM ALLTA @ 4/1 Stake 3pts PRINCESS SINEAD @ 10/1 Curragh 5.30 - An interesting 3yo Maiden for 3yo's with the previous winning trainers quite a strong trend. Basically the previous 8 runnings having been won by only 4 stables OXX [3] , BOLGER [2] , WELD [2] and O'BRIEN [1] and all those were returned in the top 5 in the betting [ 7 were in the top 3] All 4 have runners today , WAVING and SILK KOMONO are out at 20's in the betting so leave them out . Looking at the entries for the remaining 3 i'm swayed towards D Weld's SPEAKING OF WHICH who has holds entries for the Irish 2000 / Irish Derby and the Epsom Derby . Obviously it could be worthwhile holding on for a bit and see how these 4 stables runners perform in the early races * Bolger wins the first while O'Briens was 3rd. * Bolger's finish's 2nd of 30 while Oxx's runs on to be 3rd , both O'Briens and Welds unp. Bolger's runner HEAVYWEIGHT has been backed from 11's to 8's [only 6/1 with Lads] Welds' SPEAKING OF WHICH is a best 4/1 O'Brien's UNANIMOUS is 3/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 5.30 ---- Split stake - 6pt win both SPEAKING OF WHICH @ 4/1 and 4 pt win HEAVY WEIGHT @ 8/1 both bet 365

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Stake 7pts ANAM ALLTA @ 4/1 -- unp Stake 3pts PRINCESS SINEAD @ 10/1 -- 3rd found a bit of traffic but was never going to trouble the first 2 6pt win both SPEAKING OF WHICH @ 4/1 -- 2nd 4 pt win HEAVY WEIGHT @ 8/1 -- unp SPEAKING OF WHICH ran as green as the proverbial grass and will improve for the experience , one for next time i think.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Trends [thanks to racecaller] ------ AGE - 4-6 Year olds have won the past 10 but as they have represented 85% of the runners thats no real surprise . The last winner to be over 6 was HUNTERS OF BRORA back in 1998 WEIGHT - Only one top weight [bABODANA 2004] has won since 1985 9:04 has been the highest winning weight carried in the other 9 runnings DISTANCE - 10/10 had won at 8f or further. PREVIOUS WINS - 9/10 had won between 2 and 4 races with those 9 winning no more than 3 handicaps and 9/10 had won at Class 2 or 3 grade. THE DRAW - Now for this i've looked back to 1989 1and all all those run at Doncaster 14 were run on GOOD or GOOD to FIRM going . The warm ,dry weather we've had over the weekend looks like continuing well into the week and i can see the Ground being Good at worst , more probably on the Firm side of Good. In all those races run on Good or faster there has been winners from both sides of the stalls with 10/14 coming from a stall no further than 7 off either rail. If the ground is G/F then those drawn in the bottom half of the draw seem to have an advantage with 5/6 coming from there . odds - Range from Fav to 33/1 , however 14/15 were no higher than 22/1 and 6 clear or joint Favs have won You have to go back to 1957/58 to find the last winner to come back the following year do the double. 8/10 were making their seasonal debut , so a recent run on the AW is no great advantage. The HOME OF RACING HANDICAP run at Newmarket back in October has been a decent pointer for this race , the record of those who were placed in the first 5 in that and then went on to run in the Lincoln the following season is 0010143015400203 (3-5-16) FIELD OF DREAM , COCOZZA , FURY and BRAE HILL have not won over 8f or further. EDINBURGH KNIGHT [won 6 inc 4 h'cps] , SMARTY SOCKS [won 11 inc 10 hcps] , MIAS BOY [won 9 , 6 hcps] , PINTURA [won 5 all hcps] , LOWTHER [won 5] , DON'T CALL ME [won 5 , 4 hcps] , LIGHT FROM MARS [won 5 , 4 hcps] , STEVIE THUNDER [won 6 , 5 hcps] , SHAVANSKY [won 7 , 4 hcps] and DUBAI DYNAMO [won 9 , 7 hcps] are all removed. From the past races run on GOOD or G/F i have the Low numbers holding an advantage and the pace figures [see Key Race posting] point in that direction too [:hope] Therefore i'm removing MAN OF ACTION [20] , START RIGHT [18 ] [also these 2 from Godolphin who are notoriously slow starters to the season] and MULL OF KILLOUGH [21] from the equation. That leaves 5 to consider ETON FOREVER , ASKAUD , CLOCKMAKER , AMITOLA and BARREN BROOK. Can't have CLOCKMAKER , he is on his 15th Handicap outing , well exposed with only 1 win on Turf , a 7f Catterick Handicap on Soft ground. AMITOLA is a front-runner who will probably make the early pace but i doubt he'll manage to keep his head in front until the winning post. Selections - ETON FOREVER has a favourites chance after his win in the Spring Mile of 2011 on similar ground , Southern runners have a very good record of taking this over the years. ASKAUD and BARREN BROOK should be both well suited by being drawn near to the probable pace-setter [AMITOLA] and will be running on at the business end [if race-fit] . Stake 6pts ETON FOREVER @ 11/2 Stake 1pt EW ASKAUD @ 33/1 [lads] Stake 1pt EW BARREN BROOK @ 25/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends The one and only 2yo race i look at - 2.50 BROCKLESBY STAKES ------------------------- 13/14 returned at odds of 14/1 or UNDER [only 1 co-Fav] 11/14 were Colts. 12/14 were FEB / MARCH foals. 11/13 were sired by a horse which had an average winning distance [according to Racing Post ] of between 6.6f - 7.7 f [ 2009 winning sire's not quoted ] None had average of over 8.9f. Looking a bit closer into the sex of the winner and although Colts have won 11/14 runnings , Fillies have 3 wins , four 2nd's and eight 3rd places from 61 runners , from only 25% of all runners. A filly has been placed between 1st , 2nd and 3rd in 9/13 runnings. So it would be foolish to discount their chance. Only 12 runners so i'd be tempted to guess the high numbers might be preferred , simply because i assume they have the stands rail to come up [ apologies if thats wrong] Wm TURNER'S runners in this are always worth considering having had a runner in every race since '98 - 7th, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 1st, unp, 3rd, 5th, 1st, unp, 1st , 6th , 2nd , 1st is an extremely decent record . MAYPOLE JOE , from the D Evan's stable who always have their youngsters fit and ready to win at this time of the season , is the selection with the very able Cathy Gannon on board. LADY POPPY and MAYFIELD GIRL could be worth keeping an eye on from the Fillies

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends ETON FOREVER 5th ASKAUD .6th BARREN BROOK 7th MAYPOLE JOE was well btn in the Brocklesby but MAYFIELD GIRL kept the fairer sex's decent place record going nicely with a 3rd @ 33/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 9 stats which may help narrow down the field . 1- 11:05 was the winning weight in 2010 , i'd allow an extra lb but anything over that has to be ignored . 2- Eliminate those who have not shown any winning form at 3m+ - a fairly obvious statement imo. Special attention should be given to runners who have ran with distinction in a top staying race - Ballabriggs was an exception having won no further than 25f 2010 Dont Push It - 2nd in chase over extended 3m3f 2009 Mon Mome - 2nd in Welsh National 2008 Comply Or Die - Eider winner 2007 Silver Birch - Welsh National winner 2006 Numbersixvalverde - Won Irish National 2005 Hedgehunter - Won Grand National trial chase over 3m4f 2004 Amberleigh House - 3rd in preceding Grand National 2003 Monty's Pass - Won Kerry National 2002 Bindaree - Third in Welsh National 2001 Red Marauder - Won a 3m handicap hurdle 2000 Papillon - Second in Irish National 1999 Bobbyjo -Won Irish National 1998 Earth Summit - Won Welsh National 1997 Lord Gyllene - 2nd in Midlands National 1996 Rough Quest - 2nd in Hennessy (extended 3m2f) 1995 Royal Athlete - Won Chase over extended 3m3f 1994 Miinnehoma - 3rd in Welsh National 1992 Party Politics - 2nd in Welsh National 1991 Seagram - Won a 4m handicap chase 1990 Mr Frisk - Won 3m5f handicap chase 3- Ignore those who have not ran for over 2 months [60+ days] 4- Ignore those who have ran 3 times or under this season or over 6. - Those in between are usually the ones who have been specifically aimed at the race. 5- Must be aged between 8-12 - you have to go back to 1940 for a 7yo winner and 1923 for a teenage victor 6- Eliminate all those who have fallen MORE than twice in their career - yes Mon Mome unseated his rider a few times in his career but IN GENERAL you need a safe conveyance . 7- Stick to those around 33/1 or Under in the market , ON THE DAY . 8- BALLABRIGGS [11:09] stands his ground but only RED RUM has won back-to-back wins since the war. 9- Irish bred horses have the best record having won 9 of the last 10 and filled in 28 of 40 places (70%) from approximately 56.9% of the total runners. Cutting to the chase and we have 2 selections in ALWAYS RIGHT [had a wind operation since his last race] and CAPPA BLEU . Stake 6 pts win CAPPA BLEU @ 16/1 Stake 2pts EW ALWAYS RIGHT @ 33/1 [first 5 home]

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Good luck JTW1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends ALWAYS RIGHT fell at The Chair when in a nice position . CAPPA BLEU 4th and could be argued he was finishing best of all !! Posting this up early for Thursday . Thursday NEWMARKET - 4.45 - Earl of Sefton Stakes - 9f - 4yo+ ----------------------------------------------------------------- 11/11 with a rating were rated 100+ [ 8 were 109+ ] 12/12 had won at 8f or 9f . 11/13 were aged 4 or 5 yo , however there have only been 14 runners in the past 12 runnings who were older than 5 and 2 have won while 4 were placed. 11/14 had won at Class 2 or better 8/10 had won on at least previous seasonal debut , while the other 2 had been placed in such a race 8/9 who had a previous run at Newmarket [ either course] had been placed in the first 3 . The last 7 were racing off their highest Official rating .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Now i don't usually look at 3yo only race's but i've decided to look into these this season [until it goes tits-up :loon] 4.10 Newmarket - NELL GWYN STAKES 7f G3 [most stats from racecaller] ------------------------------------------ 10/10 had last ran between 23rd Sep - 3rd Nov , with 6 racing at Newmarket in their last outing as a 2yo and 5 of those winning and the other placed. 10/10 had a sire whose winning ave was NOT less 7.7f and 9 were NOT OVER 10.7f , the sole exception was 11.7f and that winner was returned 4/5fav. 10/10 had ran no more than 6 times , 7 had only been out 1-4 times and no fewer than 7 ran their first race after 9th June. 9/10 were sired by a Group 1 winner over 8f or shorter at 2 or 3yo 8/10 were rated 97+ , one other did have a rating after 2 runs [80] , the other had only ran once winning a Cl4 Maiden. 7/10 had won a Listed / Group race with 2 others winning their Maiden on their last start and the other 2nd in a Listed race LTO. Here are the runners with their negative trends - NAYARRA - Won a Group 1 over 8f lto but that over in Italy and this will be her 10th outing . Her sire never won a G1 at 2 or 3yo. ESENTPE - This will be her 11th run , best [only] win was in a Class 4 Maiden and has had a recent outing on the AW 11 days ago . Sire never won a G1 at 2 or 3. EXCELETTE - Sire's winning ave is only 6.8f and this will be her 9th run , also never won beyond 5f. LADY GORGEOUS - Sire's ave is only 6.6f and has only won a Class 4 . LILY'S ANGEL - Sire's ave is only 6.8f and this will be her 10th run . MINIDRESS - Only won at Class 4 , but was only btn 2l when 4th in a G3 .Sire didn't win a G1 at 2 or 3yo. MUAAARA - Sire's ave is only 6.7f . Won lto but only rated 77 PIMPERNEL - has ran twice in Feb at Meydan and this will be her 10th run , Sire did not win G1 at 2 or 3yo. REGAL REALM - Sire did not win a G1 until 4yo but had not ran as a 2yo , has a chance . RUSSELLIANA - Only won a Class 5 Maiden fto with same sire as REGAL REALM , beaten in Group company since. STARSCOPE - Single run was a Cl4 Maiden win , will consider SUNDAY TIMES - Only won a Class 4 Maiden , btn in Group company since. WHATS UP - Only won a Auction Maiden CL6 race . The 2 left , REGAL REALM and STARSCOPE are traind by J GOSDEN has a 10 year record of 2-1-6 and J NOSEDA won this in 2001 and his 4 runners in the past 10 have seen 2 placed so both can target this . Both are owned by CHEVELEY PARK and both have won over the course and distance but STARSCOPE is the only one to have a 1000gns entry. I feel STARSCOPE will be suited by further than the 7f [sire's ave is 9.0f and Dams sire's ave is 11.2f , while RR's is 8.8f /10.5f ] but imo they are 2 close together to try and leave one out of the equation so the bet is - 6pts win STARSCOPE @ 9/2 generally 4pts win REGAL REALM @ 7/1 Skybet

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends STARSCOPE certainly needs further after finishing 4th and running on , worth watching when stepped up in distance REGAL REALM flopped :eyes Thursday NEWMARKET - 4.45 - Earl of Sefton Stakes - 9f - 4yo+ ----------------------------------------------------------------- 11/11 with a rating were rated 100+ [ 8 were 109+ ] 12/12 had won at 8f or 9f . 11/13 were aged 4 or 5 yo , however there have only been 14 runners in the past 12 runnings who were older than 5 and 2 have won while 4 were placed. 11/14 had won at Class 2 or better 8/10 had won on at least previous seasonal debut , while the other 2 had been placed in such a race 8/9 who had a previous run at Newmarket [ either course] had been placed in the first 3 . The last 7 were racing off their highest Official rating . A quick application of the stats gives the advantage to TAZAHUM Stake 10pts @ 6/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends TAZAHUM unp 70 pts loss so far :( SATURDAY - NEWBURY - 2.00 - 12f - Group 3 [formerly the John Porter Stks] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 15/16 had been placed in a Group race , 8 had won at Group level . 15/16 had already won over 12f 14/16 were making their seasonal debuts 14/16 were aged 4-6y old - Had a closer look at this and as there has only been 23 runners aged 7+ from 140 in 13 runnings with 2 wins from those i don't think we can really look at age being of any importance. 12/13 with a BHB rating were rated 108 or better , the winner with no rating was an ex-France horse had won a Group 3 on his one UK run. All of those 12 were in the top 4 highest Official ratings 5 of the last 15 last ran in the ST SIMON stakes over C/D the previous season.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

SATURDAY - NEWBURY - 2.00 - 12f - Group 3 [formerly the John Porter Stks] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 15/16 had been placed in a Group race , 8 had won at Group level . 15/16 had already won over 12f 14/16 were making their seasonal debuts 14/16 were aged 4-6y old - Had a closer look at this and as there has only been 23 runners aged 7+ from 140 in 13 runnings with 2 wins from those i don't think we can really look at age being of any importance. 12/13 with a BHB rating were rated 108 or better , the winner with no rating was an ex-France horse had won a Group 3 on his one UK run. All of those 12 were in the top 4 highest Official ratings

ALLIED POWERS [107] and BRIDGE OF GOLD [106] are below the preferred Rating limit. Down to 4 with all winning over 12f and have either won or been placed at Group grade. MODUN - won a G3 on the AW at Kempton and had a race at Meydan 51 days ago . He has ran only once on Soft ground and was a well btn 13 of 16 . Godolphin have been notoriously slow starters in previous season's ARCTIC COSMOS - The 2010 St Leger winner won on his seasonal debut over 10f on the AW at Kempton just 21 days ago . That probably went better than the yard expected and Gosden has had a couple of winners in the past 4 days. Again there has to be a concern about the Soft ground . He holds entries in G2 and G1 events. EYE OF THE TIGER - A strange runner for B Curley who usually has runners at a lot lower level than this . A G2 winner in Germany back in May 2010 , has not been seen since the end of that month , this is one who should revel in the conditions. Capable of winning from the front the 26.0 on offer looks big despite his 692 day absence. HARRIS TWEED - Top rated despite only winning at Listed grade but has been placed at G2 and G3 grade . His best runs have been over 12 / 14f on Soft ground and usually leads . Making his seasonal debut here . Holds an entry in the 16f G2 Yorkshire Cup and i'm wary this 12f may just be on the short side . Summary - The Soft ground could well be against MODUN and ARCTIC COSMOS while HARRIS TWEED may need further . It all depends on the betting but any indication of support in the market for EYE OF THE TIGER , considering the trainer , would be a big plus so i'm taking the 16/1 on offer right now and will come back to this before the off with any other betting news. Stake 5pts EW @ 26.0 EYE OF THE TIGER [1/3 the odds bet365]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends That was embarrassing tbh and 80pts down so far :\ Friday SANDOWN 2.20 8f Group 2 4yo+ Bet 365 Mile ----------------------------------------------- 14/16 were returned 1st/2nd or 3rd Fav . 14/16 were aged 4 or 5 yo [6yo+ have accounted for 31 of the 130 runners in those 16 runnings . 14/14 won at least a Listed race , 11/14 had won at least Group 3 level 12/12 were rated 109 - 124 10/13 was one of the top 2 rated horses No mare/Filly has won in the last 14 runnings , but there have only been 7 ran with 3 placed. R HANNON [6] and M STOUTE [2] have won the last 8 runnings of this race. Saturday SANDOWN 4.20 - Group 3 10f 4yo+ Gordon Richards Stakes --------------------------------------------------------------- 14/16 were 4 or 5yo, there were very few older horses so possibly not the strongest stat. 14/15 were previous winners over 10f [ 2008 winner had been btn just under 1l in the only 10f race it had contested. 12/13 were rated 110+ The last 9/10 winners had won at Group 3 or better. [2010 winner had been btn a hd in a G3 ] M STOUTE has won it 5 times in the past 16 runnings.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Friday SANDOWN 2.20 8f Group 2 4yo+ 65 Mile ----------------------------------------------- 14/16 were returned 1st/2nd or 3rd Fav . 14/16 were aged 4 or 5 yo [6yo+ have accounted for 31 of the 130 runners in those 16 runnings .] 14/14 won at least a Listed race , 11/14 had won at least Group 3 level 12/12 were rated 109 - 124 10/13 was one of the top 2 rated horses No mare/Filly has won in the last 14 runnings , but there have only been 7 ran with 3 placed. R HANNON [6] and M STOUTE [2] have won the last 8 runnings of this race. The sole filly in the race COCHABAMBA is rated only 88 . PENITENT has won at Listed grade but failed in three G3 runs , now a 6yo he should find this G2 beyond him and is rated just below the preferred 109. FAMOUS NAME is similar to PENITENT in that while a winner in 8 Group 3's he is now 7yo and finding the necessary ability to take this G2 is asking a lot esp as those G3 wins seems to have been against relatively soft opposition in the fact that the best SP he returned in those 8 was 4/5f . QUESTIONING won at Newmarket last week in the G3 Earl Of Sefton but is still a couple of pounds under the 109 limit . SIDE GLANCE is rated 115 but has only won at G3 grade , was 4th [btn under 2l] in a G1 at Woodbine and well btn behind Frankel at Champions day on his last ouitng of 2011. Disappointed when only 5th in the Doncaster Mile behind PENITENT [1st] and QUESTIONING[3rd] this season and hard to see hime reversing form with either. The Hannon trained LIBRANNO has won at G2 grade but he has never won beyond 7f , btn both times over 8f , and in 2 races where the going was described as SOFT he finished 12th of 16 and 11th of 13. Which leaves DUBAWI GOLD , also from the Hannon stable , who has won at G2 and twice over 8f . He has also finished 4th in 3 G1's one of which was on VerySoft at Longchamp . Won FTO as a 2 and 3yo but failed over in Meydan 48 days ago , however that should have helped the fitness level . J Murtagh has ridden him twice , both times 4th in a G1 and G2 , so he knows the horse well. Rated 5lb above LIBRANNO . Lets see how the odds are tomorrow.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SIDE GLANCE is a non-runner DUWABI GOLD is on offer @ 3/1 with Stan James , so stake 10pts .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Another loser Sunday - The first Group 1 of the French season is the PRIX GANAY There are 3 Trends which stand out in this race , firstly the age range which has seen 8 4yo's win the last 10 runnings having represented around 60% of the runners [46/78] so that age range has a definate advantage imo. 2nd , and probably the most intriguing , is the record of winners who previous raced 3 weeks earlier in the PRIX HARCOURT. If we ignore the 2 Irish trained winners we see that no less than 6 from 8 had ran in that particular race , 2 had won while 3 had been 2nd and one was 3rd. Also note that in the 2 races where the winner had not ran in the PRIX HARCOURT the two who finished 2nd in the GANAY had ran in the HARCOURT. and thirdly , while only one filly has won in the past 10 runnings there have only been 11 runners of that sex and 4 of those were 2nd so just under 50% of filly's finished in the first 2 place's. So based on these facts the obvious selection is this season's PRIX HARCOURT winner GIOFRA . Also a 4yo who has progressed nicely in her 4 career runs winning the last 3 of her 4 races , the first an 8k race she then won a Listed event before taking the HARCOURT comfortably by 3l. The obvious concern is the Very Soft forecast ground but you have to trust the stable's choice to run . 5.5/5.6 is available on Betfair

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends GIOFRA 2nd but well beaten . Newmarket 2.30 Group 2 4yo+ Jockey Club Stakes ----------------------------------------------------- 16/16 were 4 or 5 year-olds [16 6yo+ have ran in the past 10 runnings from a total of 64 runners , around 23%] 15/16 had ran in Group company LTO [10 in G1's] 14/16 finished in the first 4 LTO 14/16 had won over 12f 11/16 had won at Group level , a further 3 had won at Listed grade and had been placed in G1 or 2 , btn under 3l , 2011's winner had been btn just a head in a G3 10 of the last 12 who had a British rating were rated 105+ [ 9 were 111+ ] DUNADEN [6] and BLUE BAJAN [10] are above the age preference. SADEEK'S SONG [103] is rated below the 105 mark. AL KAZEEM has yet to win past 10f , ran and well btn in 2 12f races , and i would suggest his breeding is against it. MASKED MARVEL flopped LTO and i would overlook that but coupled with the fact he is probably better over further than 12f [ last 2 wins were 13 and 15f ] That leaves 3 to consider - FIORENTE , MEANDRE and QUEST FOR PEACE . QUEST FOR PEACE has been btn in both races on easy ground [albeit one was aG1] and has failed to win on 2 seasonal debut's FIORENTE has been off-track for 284 days and tbh i'm holding back from selecting any decent class runner from SMS until show winning form [ he has had winners but generally in Class 5/6 events . So the selection is the French raider MEANDRE who is a 4yo , won twice over 12f , won at Listed and GROUP 1 grade , is rated 122 and has been victorious on G/S going. Stake 10pts @ 9/4 with Stan James. Newmarket 3.45 Group 3 - 5f - 3yo+ Palace House Stakes ---------------------------------------------------------------- 13/13 rated 103+ 15/16 had won at Listed/Group class 10/16 were aged 4yo+ , but 3yo's have won 5 from only 32 runners in the past 16 season's. Take out ELUSIVITY , FOXY MUSIC , MOVE IN TIME , ASTROPHYSICAL JET on ratings. Take out HAMISH McGONAGALL and JONNY MUDBALL who have failed to win at Listed/Group grade. It would seem prudent to take out those would appear to be dis-advantaged by an easy surface - NIGHT CARNATION Next take a big pin ....... 2000 Guineas --------------- 16/16 born before 6th April 15/16 had ran over 7 / 8f LTO 15/16 ran no more than 5 times 14/16 sires had a winning ave of between 8.7f - 11.3f [ 8.3 was the lowest ] 14/16 won LTO [ 16/16 in the first 3] 12/16 were making their seasonal debuts 12/12 had a Racing Post Record [RPR] of 111+ An interesting stat from racecaller.com is that 10/11 winners were by a sire who’d won a group 1 over 6F to 8F Back tomorrow