JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends THE LINCOLN HANDICAP ----------------------- I don't usually do handicaps but i tend to make an exception for the first big race of the year and have decided to try and approach it from a few different angles , the main reason for which is that i can't ever recall actually finding the bloody winner !!!! There will still be a few 'obvious' trends i'll follow but with flexibility . As is always the case with the Lincoln the main talking point's are the potential effect of the draw and where the pace will come from . I have looked back to 1988 and from those runnings i have concentrated on the renewals where the winning time was at least 5 secs below the standard , which to my mind signifies at least G/S to SOFT going , rather than rely upon the stated going . There were 8 races that qualified , i could have been pernickety about 2008 which was run 4.98secs slower but for the sake of 0.02 i hope you'll forgive me :p The first 6 home in each race were drawn - 2010 [5.90 secs slow] - 1 , 5 , 10 , 14 , 3 , 6 from 21 runners. 2008 [4.98 secs ] - 12 , 3 , 16 , 5 , 4 , 13 from 21. 2002 [8.04 secs] - 7 , 6 , 13 , 12 , 10 , 15 from 23. 2001 [9.28 secs] - 1 , 6 , 2 , 4 , 10 , 5 from 23. 1996 [7.27 secs] - 6 , 7 , 15 , 1 , 10 , 2 from 24. 1992 [5.34 secs] - 17 , 5 , 6 , 22 , 1 , 19 from 24. 1991 [5.35 secs] - 23 , 7 , 2 , 14 , 15 , 3 from 25. 1988 [8.60 secs] - 1 , 6 , 8 , 2 , 15 , 11 from 25 So from 48 places only twice did any runner drawn higher than 16 finish in the money , also note that the 5 winners from single number draws were also the 5 slowest run races ..therefore i conclude that providing the ground stays soft it should be a large negative to be drawn 16+ . Keep an eye on the time run for the Spring Mile run earlier to check . I have looked at the prospect of where the pace in the race will come from and imo it adds further weight to the negativity of being drawn HIGH as none of those drawn above 15 have a history of being left to make the running and with the prospect of the race splitting into 2 or possibly 3 groups i envisage the top 5/6 being at a severe disadvantage. I can see at least 3/4 runners from middle-low stalls making the initial running and , again assuming a split may occur , give those Mid to Low drawn runners a lead to follow. I've also had a look at those past 10 winners at Doncaster [ 2 were run at Redcar and Newcastle ] and found that it would seem to be a distinct advantage to have winning or close placed form in races with 14+ runners or more , 10/10 had managed this . Needless to say 10/10 past winners at Donny had also managed to win or be placed 2nd in at least one of their first 2 seasonal renewals . Back to the more basic trends and in recent years the calibre of winner has risen with the 8 of the last 8 being rated 95+ , i will allow for a lower rating if the horse in question is relatively un-exposed 10/10 HAD WON NO MORE THAN 3 HANDICAPS 9/10 HAD WON OVER 8F+ 8/10 WERE SOUTHERN-TRAINED , however with the rise in stature in R FAHEY stable [won it last year] over the last few season's it woud be foolish to ignore his chance's. Back later with selection

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Ok let's assume those drawn HIGH 17 and over]will be dis-advantaged by draw and pace ,so take out PRINCE OF JOHANNE , STIRCTLY SILVER , BRAE HILL , ESHTIBAAK , CAPAILL LIATH ,ANDERIEGO . I also believe the winner will come from either those rated 95+ or possibly an unexposed runner from below that mark , so take out GLOBAL VILLAGE [also aged 8 , those aged 7+ have a record of 0-5-39 in 10 runnings] , JUSTONEFORTHEROAD [also 7yo] , CAPTAIN BERTIE , SWIFTLY DONE , MUFFIN MCLEAY [also not showed in 14+ runner races] , CAPAILL LIATH [poor record in 14+ runner races] , ANDERIEGO [likewise] , CHOSEN CHARACTER , JACKS REVENGE , BANCNUANAHREIEANN , LEVITATE and DUBAI DYNAMO. .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Good morning , to continue ... MAJESTIC MYLES has yet to race , never mind win , over 8f and his breeding suggests he won't worry the stewards. CHAPTER SEVEN has failed to show in races with 14+ runners . HIT THE JACKPOT was with D WELD last season and is very lightly raced [6 caeer runs] and was highly tried in Group 2 and 3 grade last season. He may well have the ability to run well here but is lacking experience in large fields and has only won a Galway Maiden. MEMORY CLOTH will be wearing blinkers for the 1st time after hanging to the right on his debut on the AW at Wolves 3 weeks ago. Other than that he looks to have a decent chance on the stats being a past 8f winner twice , won on Soft ground , won a Class 2 and won in a 17 runner event. Despite being Northern trained , i still give him a chance as the yard [b ELLISON] has had winners over both codes in the past 14 days , inc on here last Friday. LAHAAG has only had 4 career runs so is well open to improvement, definately has a chance. ESHTIBAAK is a stable-mate of LAHAAG and is similarly lightly raced [5 runs] but has been running , and indeed won twice , over 10f and that would appear to be where he is most effective . GLADYS GAL is even lighter raced having seen a racecourse only 3 times but when upped in class after winning a Class 6 Maiden he won a Class 3 7f Handicap here at Doncaster in JULY 2011 and was noted as 'keeping on strongly' Stake 5pts LAHAAG @ 9/1 Stake 3pts GLADYS' GAL @ 12/1 Stake 2pts MEMORY CLOTH @ 20/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends After 35 years of trying to find the winner of the Lincoln i finally admit defeat 13th ..17th....and PULLED UP !!!!

[Karijini]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

After 35 years of trying to find the winner of the Lincoln i finally admit defeat 13th ..17th....and PULLED UP !!!!

Better lucky next time mate. I always find that the one time you don't have money on it that it comes through for ya. Sods law. Maybe you'll nail it on your 36th year!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Nope ....nothing for the National here but my fancy after checking out the stats is TEAFORTHREE Sunday - THE CURRAGH 3.20 - Grp 3 Gladness Stakes - 7f - 4yo+ --------------------------------------------------------------- Looked at all runnings since 2004 when 3yo were excluded 8/9 were in the top 5 in the betting 8/9 were 7f winners , other had won at 8f and had only raced once over 7f [finished 1l 2nd] 8/9 had won at Listed/Group level , other was 3rd in a G3. 8/9 were rated 107+ 8/9 had won in either of their first 2 runs in previous season's 5 had won at The Curragh , one had been placed in G1's on the course whilst 2 were making their course debut , the other had been placed.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Nope ....nothing for the National here but my fancy after checking out the stats is TEAFORTHREE Sunday - THE CURRAGH 3.20 - Grp 3 Gladness Stakes - 7f - 4yo+ --------------------------------------------------------------- Looked at all runnings since 2004 when 3yo were excluded 8/9 were in the top 5 in the betting 8/9 were 7f winners , other had won at 8f and had only raced once over 7f [finished 1l 2nd] 8/9 had won at Listed/Group level , other was 3rd in a G3. 8/9 were rated 107+ 8/9 had won in either of their first 2 runs in previous season's 5 had won at The Curragh , one had been placed in G1's on the course whilst 2 were making their course debut , the other had been placed.

It always makes sense to follow the ratings in these races , therefore take out those rated UNDER 107 - BOLD THADY QUILL , CUSTOM CUT and LADY WINGSHOT , ARNOLD LANE and NEPHRITE. FOXTROT ROMEO has yet to win over 7f , he has ran twice over this specialist distance and fialed to bother the Judge although they were both Group 2's. I'm no expert on breeding but i get the impression he will be better suited by an extra furlong , probably his best run was when a length 2nd in the Irish 2000 Guineas. That leaves 3 to consider - YELLOW ROSEBUD ran 14 days ago in the G3 Park Express Stakes from which 2 previous winners had ran in . With hindsight she ran a decent race imo in finishing 2nd to the BOLGER [had 4 winners that day] runner , giving away 15lb being beaten just under 2l. He has won both his seasonal debuts so comes to hand very quickly , she has won on Good , G/S and Heavy so tomorrow's Yielding should pose no problems . 2 of her 3 wins were in Group 3 company and her strongest positive is her liking for the 7f over which she has won twice and been beaten only a head and a half length in 2 others over 7f. LA COLLINA won a 6f Group 1 as a 2yo on this course and was 3rd in another G1 over 7f that year , she ran in the highest grade last season [4 Group 1's and a G3] without managing to place and all those were over 8-9f which her breeding points to as being more suitable for her as opposed to the 7f and i feel this opinion is backed up by the fact she has 3 future entries over 8f 10f and 10f . LILY'S ANGEL has won twice over the 7f and has had a pretty hectic career so far , this will be her 19th race but significantly the Highest grade she has won over is a couple of Listed stakes races . Whilst she has won on ground officially described as G/S her other 4 turf wins were on Good [1] and G/F [3] whilst her last 3 were on Dundalks All-weather and LTO was on the Tapeta in Meydan. Summary - LA COLLINA would appear to be using this as a stepping stone for attempts over a longer distance than this . LILY'S ANGEL may well have the ability to win a Group race but i think she will find one better here ... namely Dermot welds YELLOW ROSEBUD who will surely have come on for her run 14 days ago over C/D when giving away 15lbs to a runner from a stable who had 3 other winners that day . She is proven over the 7f and is a double Group 3 winner and will hopefully find the better going also in her favour . Stake 5pts @ 5/1 [Paddy P]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Sunday 2.40 LONGCHAMP G2 4yo+ 10f ---------------------------------------- 9/10 were 4yo , with approx 60% of the runners [50/83] still well above what you would expect , indeed 4yo's have won 16 of the last 18 runnings. 9/10 had won at Group 2 or 3 grade , last season's winner was running in Group class for the 1st time after winning at Listed level and the 3 previous victors prior to that had all won at G2 grade . 9/10 had won at least one of their 1st 2 races at the start of a new season. 6 had won over 10f , 3 were running over 10f for the 1st[2] or 2nd[1] time and had previously won over 9f while the other had won over 11f. I'll keep the 5yo's in but anything over 5 is removed - SAGA DREAM and DON BOSCO . HAYA LANDA has only won once from 16 races and that was a 3yo conditions race. TOP TRIP won a G2 and over 10f last season but finished the season running over 13f and 15f and i note he is entered for the 14f Yorkshire Cup ! A winner on Heavy and G/S i also wonder that unless rain appears the GOOD going forecasted for today will be against him. The only other 4yo is the Aga Khan's DALKALA who also ended the season running over further [13 and 16f] but it entered for the 10f G2 Middleton at the Dante meeting . He has won on both seasonal debuts , won at G2 grade and also won once over C/D. I am less worried about this one's ability to handle the step back in distance as i am with TOP TRIP. MAXIOS has won 3 times over 10f and is a dual G3 winner . Good ground will suit this 5yo and he has won on 2 of his 3 seasonal debuts. PAGERA is also a 5yo and is a G3 winner and a winner over 10f. Has won 1st time and 2nd time in the last 2 season's . A worry is that her 3 wins have came on Heavy and G/S so will she find the ground on the fast side and also in both runs at Longchamps she was well beaten in fact her record in races on a right-handed track is 11th of 12 , 6th of 6 , 9th of 12 and 11th of 12. Summary - The record of 4yo's is hard to ignore and i'm hoping the step back in distance will help rather than hinder DALKALA . No odds available yet .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends DALKALA 5pts @ 7/1 from BET365

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Both unp

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SATURDAY - NEWBURY - 1.50 - 12f - Group 3 [formerly the John Porter Stks] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 16/17 had been placed in a Group race , 8 had won at Group level . 16/17 had already won over 12f 15/17 were making their seasonal debuts 13/14 with a BHB rating were rated 108 or better , the winner with no rating was an ex-France horse had won a Group 3 on his one UK run. All of those 13 were in the top 4 highest Official ratings Theres not too many rated 108+ so i'll keep those on 105+ which removes ALLIED POWERS , ED DE GAS and QUIZ MISTRESS . MEGANISI has never been placed in a Group race OR won over 12f. FATTSOTA has ran in only 1 Group race and was well beaten in that G3 while UNIVERSAL has never ran above Cl2 in the UK . Wm HAGGAS trains GUARANTEE but from 5 runners on turf this season he has managed only a 3rd place , also noted his last win was over 14f and he has an entry for the Yorkshire Cup over that distance . I find it impossible to separate the ABDULLAH pair of NOBLE MISSION and MODEL PUPIL. Sir Henry Cecil has stated on the stable website that NOBLE MISSION 'will improve for the race but should finish in the first 3 ' ...on the flip-side MODEL PUPIL will be fully fit after winning the Conditions race at Doncaster at the opening meeting of the Flat and Ryan Moore again takes the ride . Stake 5pts MODEL PUPIL @ 3/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends MODEL PUPIL unp Friday ..and we look to find the winner of the BET365 MILE and this is one of those races where there only a handful of stats but they are VERY strong. This is a race where the market and the official ratings point the way to the winner's circle with 9 of the past 10 winners coming from the first 3 in the betting and 8/10 rated 112+ , those 8 were either Top or 2nd top-rated . The 2 other winners were rated 108 and 110 respectively. In this years renewal we have the Fav and 2nd Fav 3pts shorter than the 3rd fav and of those 2 FAARRAJ is only rated 108. TRUMPET MAJOR is the current Fav and a top rated 114 . Other points in his favour is the record of R HANNON is this race , he has won this no fewer than 6 times since 2004 with 4 individual Horse's and he appear to fancy his chance's of a 7th success reading his quote from the Sporting Life website - 'The Herridge handler had even won the race four years on the bounce until David O'Meara's Penitent brought that run to an end 12 months ago. However, in three-times Group winner Trumpet Major and Libranno, who was fifth in 2012 but is a six-times Group scorer, Hannon believes he can make it a super seven. "We hope the rain stays away as Trumpet Major wants decent ground. He started off last year in the Craven, which he won by five lengths, and then he ran a super race to finish close up fourth in the Guineas," the trainer told www.richardhannonracing.co.uk. "However, he had probably had enough when running below-par in the Celebration Mile at Goodwood, and he came back from Newmarket with a dirty scope after disappointing on his final run. He has benefited from a long break and Hughesie has opted for him.' So far this season the stable has had 3 winners from 7 runners in Group races. TRUMPET MAJOR has won twice over 8f and won a G2 and two G3's. A couple of slight concerns is the forecast rain overnight but he has won on G/S and also on his one run at Sandown he finished 4th of 4. Stake 5pts @ 5/2

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends great price 3/1, well done that man :)

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers Bowlesy needed the boost :ok TRUMPET MAJOR 1st @ 3/1 thankfully the BOG applied , didn't expect the drift but i'm happy :loon

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Saturday SANDOWN 3.15 - Group 3 10f 4yo+ Gordon Richards Stakes --------------------------------------------------------------- Again we have a handful of relevant stats to consider with the strongest being the ability of the market to highlight the winner with 10/10 returned in the top 4 in the betting and 9 of those in single figures. The next is the fact that 9/10 were rated 110+. There are 3 runners rated 110+ and all 3 constitute the top 3 in the market - AL KAZEEM , EKTIHAAM and THOMAS CHIPPENDALE. Next we have the fact that 9/10 had won over 10f , unfortunately for the selection process all 3 have done so. Finally , stat-wise , we have 8/10 had won at Group grade [other 2 won a Listed race] , AL KAZEEM and THOMAS CIPPENDALE have done so ..but while EKTIHAAM has only won at Class 2 he has been placed 2nd in a G2 [btn only 3/4l while the 3rd was 4l behind] AL KAZEEM is top rated on 117 but upon looking at the trainers record for this Flat season i found that he has had 9 runners with only a 3rd placing to show for their efforts [ 5 of those were 10/1 or under so i assume not all 9 were no-hopers]. Coupled with the fact the horse has not been out for 357 days i'm more than willing to oppose the current forecasted Favourite. Roger Varian's stable has managed 2 winners from 12 runners this flat season with both being ridden by R MOORE , who is claimed to ride for Sir M Stoute here. Varians runners seem to be coming on for a run , as his last winner did with a prev run on the AW , and his FARAAJ disappointed here earlier today. Which leaves Henry Cecil's entry THOMAS CHIPPENDALE as the selection. This one is a Royal Ascot winner at Group 2 grade and should not be inconvienienced by the slowish ground [more showers forecast tomorrow] Stable jockey Tom Queally take the ride here and has won previously over 10f. Concerns - Taking a step back in distance after finishing 8th of 9 in the St Leger , his Ascot win was over 12f ...but i'm heartened by the quote from the Life's website - 'Thomas Chippendale won the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot for Sir Henry Cecil last summer, but ran disappointingly in both the Great Voltigeur at York and the St Leger at Doncaster. He comes right back in trip for his return to action and Barry Simpson, racing manager for owner Sir Robert Ogden, is keen to see how he fares. Simpson said: "He's wintered really well and we're delighted with him on that score. Henry is very happy with him and Henry's horses have started the season in very good form, so we're hoping he'll run very well. "We're coming back to 10 furlongs with him, but Sandown is a stiff track, so it will be interesting to see how he gets on. Looking back towards the end of last season, we're not sure he got the trip in the St Leger, or even the Great Voltigeur before that. "He won at Newmarket last year over a mile and a quarter, albeit it was only a handicap, but he did show a lot of foot that day. This is a good starting point for him and will give us a good indication of how he's progressed." With 4 winners from 21 runners this Flat season , the yard is in decent form . Interestingly LADBROKES have this one at a stingy 5/2 , while he is 7/2 with PP and Boylesports. Stake 5pts @ 7/2

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends THOMAS CHIPPENDALE 2nd @ 3/1 Sunday - Longchamp 2.15 G1 Prix Ganay 11f ------------------------------------------- This is another race where , similar to Fridays BET365 Mile , there are some fairly straight-forward strong stats to follow . The first is the fact the 6 of the past 10 winners previously ran , and were placed , in the PRIX HARCOURT which is run 2/3 previously . Of the 4 who did not run in that race , 2 were from A O'Briens stable and were having their 1st run in France , one had won the ARC in it's last run and the other was 3rd in a G1 at Ascot . To strengthen the cause of the Prix Harcourt , 2 of the second placed runners in the above 4 HAD ran in the race and were placed in it . 9 / 10 had won at Group level , the other had been a close 2nd in 2 G1's it had ran in . 9 / 10 were returned in the top 3 in the betting , of which 5 were Favs. 8/8 [leaving out the Irish winners] were course winners , 7 of which were over 10f and the other over 12f. Another interesting stst is the record of the Females in this race , while not actually winning they have produced no fewer than 6 seconds from only 12 runners in the past 10 season's and if we remove the no-hopers [ 2x 66/1 and a 100/1 shot ] that becomes an even more impressive 6 seconds from 9....surely it's only a matter of time ...? Taking out those 3 who are 40/1 + in the betting leaves us with 4 Males to consider and of those only MAXIOS ran , and indeed won , the PRIX HARCOURT . Of the 2 females left neither ran in the PH , GIOFRA ran 2nd in this last year but while winning once over 10f , she would appear to my eye to be better over a furlong or 2 shorter . RIDASIYNA on the other hand won first time out last season , has won over C/D and also twice over the 10f as well as being a Group 1 winner . Imho i believe the winner will come from those 2 and it could well be the Fillies time at last so i'll have a split stake bet - 3pts RIDASIYNA @ 10/3 betvic 2pts MAXIOS @ 5/1 generally available

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

3pts RIDASIYNA @ 10/3 betvic 2pts MAXIOS @ 5/1 generally available

MAXIOS 2nd RIDASIYNA unp Saturday - Lingfield 4.00 - Chartwell Fillies Stakes Group 3 - 7f ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The race has been a G3 since 2004. 9/9 were returned at odds of 16/1 or shorter , 2 clear Favs and 2 Jts. 7/7 were rated 98+ , the other 2 were won by an unrated French and Irish runner respectively. 8/9 had won at least a Class 2 Handicap , 7 had won a Stakes race. 8/9 had ran in at least a Cl2 race LTO , 7 in a Stakes race. 7/9 had won over 7f , one other had ran 2nd [btn 1/4l] in it's only run over the 7f. 9/9 had a sire whose offsprings win ave was between 7.7f and 9.9f , 8 were 7.7f - 9.2f 9/9 had been sired by a Group 1 or 2 winning horse , 7 were G1 winners. The ratings and odds are usually close enough to weed out those who don't fit the stats so remove MAJESTIC OASIS [16/1 and rated 86] , HARD WALNUT [40/1 and 76] , SWITCHER [25's and 95] and TASSEL [20's and 89] CITY IMAGE has never won over 7f [ran twice] and her sire's ave is only 6.9f. EXACTMENT has never won over 7f [ran twice] and her sire's ave is only 6.6f. That leaves us with 5 runners to consider , the going is forecast as Good [light rain is expected but it will be windy so i don't expect it to be any softer] INTENSE PINK is the lowest rated at 98 . She has won at Listed grade and also won twice at 7f. Negatives - Both her wins were on SOFT ground and she beat SWITCHER in her last run who has failed to place in 2 Listed runs this season. KENDAM is top-rated on 107 and has won at G3 level . Negatives - similar to the above as she has won twice and both times on SOFT ground , she has a poor strike rate with only 2 wins from 19 runs in France and both were in season 2011. Her trainer has had 6 runners in the UK with only a third place to show for it. She has been beaten in 8 Listed/G3 runs since her last win. The Irish raider LILYS ANGEL is 2nd top-rated on 106 and has won twice over 7f and 3 times in Listed company. Negatives - Her last 4 wins were on an AW surface [ Dundalk , Meydan and Kempton] she has won on Turf . The trainer has had 22 UK runners in 5 years with 4 winning BUT 3 of those were on the AW at Kempton . PLEINE FORME [rated 101] ran in the us as a 2yo and France as a 3yo before being sent to M Botti's stable here in the UK . She has won twice , a Maiden in the US and a 7k 3yo race in France and was 2nd twice in Listed races in Germany . Negative - Never won a Stakes race , her one 7f victory was in a 3-runner race and her sire's win ave is only 7.6f. ULTRASONIC is rated 102 and has been placed 4 times in Listed company. Negatives - Never won over 7f but has only ran once over the trip [4th of 14] and sire's ave is 9.1f. Best win so far is only at Class 3 grade and since winning FTO in a hood she has finished 2nd on 3 occasions ...ungenuine ?? More negatives than positives for all 5 but i think we can rule out the chance's of the well travelled PLEINE FORME who has to prove her ability to win at Listed nevermind Group grade in this country . ULTRASONIC is another who ,imho, has a lot to prove in this grade and who usually find's one too good for her ...too short at the odds for me . Another point to note is that she holds no future entries...in contrast INTENSE PINK holds no fewer than 4 with entries in 2 G1's, a G2 and a G3 . She may well have progressed over the winter but with no winners from only 11 runners this Flat season i think the yard has yet to get their charge's ready to run nevermind win this season. That leaves the 2 non-UK runners who are both race-fit and are top and 2nd top rated . Despite the fact that LILY'S ANGEL 's sire's win ave is only 7.0f the fact that she has won 3 times over both 7 and 8f means we can jgnore that particular stat this time around. She has entries in a couple of G2's and a G3 . LILY'S was 7th of 17 behind HOMECOMING QUEEN in last season's 1000 Guineas and her record since leaving R FAHEY to go to G LYONS is 1,1,1,4,7,1. the 4th place was in a G2 over in Dubai while the 7th [btn 4l] was on ground i consider to have had too much give in it for her . Providing she can reproduce her AW form here she must have a decent chance and as her sire won a G1 and G2 she just gets the vote over - KENDAM who has no future entries in the UK but as she is French-trained that is no great surprise . She has nothing else but consistent at Group grade having won 1 and being placed in 4 from 9 Group 1's and 3's Her record on Good ground in Group company over 7f is 7th , 3rd , 3rd and that last 3rd was in a G1 [albeit on Heavy going] but she does find it hard to get her nose in front where it matters....also her sire won only an 8k 3yo race . Stake 5pts LILY'S ANGEL @ 7/2 with betvictor

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 1st - LILY'S ANGEL 4/1 :loon

[ROGERANDOUT]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Made my day. Thanks jtw1. Cracking winner.

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends well done jtw, another winner for the trends, keep it up

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends I'm leaving out the G2 Duke Of York Stakes in favour of the 4 runner G3 Blue Wind Stakes over 10f at NAAS on weds evening . No doubt a disappoinitng turn out for this season's renewal but still some strong stats that can be used to find the winner [:hope] Starting off as a Listed event this race was raised to G3 grade in 2004 , but since the inaugural race in 2001 [12 runnings ] only 5 trainers have won it , J OXX [4] , J BOLGER [4] , D WELD [2] , A O'BRIEN [1] and K PRENDERGAST [1]. Since 2004 - 9/9 were won by 3yo's [32 4yo+ have ran ] 8/9 were returned in the top 3 in the betting. 8/9 were sired by a horse who had an win ave of 9.0f+ 7/9 had won LTO , 6 had ran that season. 3 of those trainers have runners here and they are the top 3 in the betting but there is only 1 3yo and she is the only runner who won LTO who is only one of 2 who has a sires ave of over 9.0f. RHEN'S NEST is trained by 3 Time winner J BOLGER , the Soft[ish] going and step up in distance should suit. Currently available at 9/4 with bet365 so i will have 5pts on.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends RHEN'S NEST 4th Highlight's the danger of betting in races with a handful of runners which turns into a tactical affair , RHEN'S NEST fought for her head most of the way , was first off the bridle in the home straight but finished fast....33/1 winner in a time nearly 15 secs above standard !!!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Sat - Newbury 3.50 - LOCKINGE STAKES G1 - 8f [thnx to racecaller] ------------------------------------------------- 10/10 returned at 9/1 or shorter , 7 favs , 10/10 rated 113+. 10/10 had won over 8f+ 9/10 were won by 4 or 5yo's [7 x 4yo and 2 x 5yo , note the older winners inc a 6yo had all won at G1 level] 8/10 had won a Group 1 , one exception had been 2nd in 3 G1's. Seems sensible to start with those rated below 113 so out goes ALJAMAAHEER , AMARON , CHIL THE KITE ,DECLARATION OF WAR , LIBRANNO , REPLY and SOVEREIGN DEBT . All 6 remaining have over 8f+ but CITYSCAPE and PENITENT are 7yo's. FENCING finished 3rd behind CAMELOT [btn 2 and 1/2l] in the 2011 G1 Racing Post Trophy but has been well beaten in 2 further runs in this grade and has only won at Listed grade. Although TRUMPET MAJOR has won at G2 and 3 grade he has failed 3 times at G1 level. That leaves 2 and the first ton consider is FARHH who has won only at Class 2 grade but has finished 2nd]3rd in no fewer than 5 Group 1's , 2 of those 2nd's were behind FRANKEL and the 3rd was in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at the Royal meeting behind SO YOU THINK. Another positive is the fact he has won FTO in all 3 seasonal debut's. On the negative side he is a 5 yo who still has yet to win a Stakes race and he has been running generally over 10f , he has stamina on the dam's side and i fear this could be short enough FTO in this grade. Also the yard seems to be having it's now traditional slow start to the season. Here's the trainers quote on his chance taken from the Sporting Life website - "He was second in four Group Ones, twice behind Frankel, so he's shown his class. He will need the race on Saturday but he's in good condition, he's happy and fresh and has the class so he should run well. "We'll see how he gets on, but he'll probably step up to 10 furlongs at Royal Ascot for the Prince of Wales's Stakes. At least BEAUTY PARLOUR has won a G1 and was a close 2nd in another . Both those runs occurred before she was transferred to Hency Cecil's stable in july of last year , she then did not run for 2 months when reappearing in the G1 Sun Chariot at Newmarket were she flopped badly into 7th [ 8 ran] She has won on both seasonal debuts . On the negative side the first time she ran on quick ground was in the Sun Chariot and she may face similar conditions on saturday although Fridays winning times were all above [and some well above ] the standard. Selection - BEAUTY PARLOUR gets the nod in front of FARHH , she has the class , has no problem with the distance and the added plus of females winning 3 of the last 4 they have had a representative in , 04 , 06 and 07 . The forecast going is a concern but as i say Fridays times were nothing special so i'm hoping SHC has her fit-to-win here. Stake 5pts @ 6/1 with bet365/boylesports.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends BEAUTY PARLOUR - NR FARHH 1st @10/3 Was away from laptop when i found out BEAUTY PARLOUR was a nr , so had to have a bet in the bookies on FAARH [ never noticed Bin Surroor had a winner at Newmarket on Friday so confidence was boosted]

[ROGERANDOUT]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Made my Saturday again JT, THANKS.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Sat 3.50 Haydock - TEMPLE STAKES - G2 - 5

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends TEMPLE STAKES - 3.50 Haydock - G2 - 5f ------------------------------------------- Sprints are not my Favourite type of race but as it seems to be the only Group race happening on Saturday lets have a look. Formerly run at Sandown , the Temple stakes has been run 5 times at Haydock so it's those 5 we'll consider. As is usually the case it's the market leaders which have the advantage here with all 5 being returned in the top 4 in the market . 4/5 had won at G2 or 3 grade with the exception winning a Listed race but had also been 2nd three times in G1 company. 4/5 were rated 114+ , the exception was rated 103 with the 2nd on 116 [that race was run on HEAVY ground and was the longest priced winner in 5 runnings] 5/5 were drawn between 1 and 5 . With G/F ground forecast it seems sensible to start with those rated 110+ [there's very few , 1 to be precise ! , rated over 114] So straight away we're left with only 5 from 12 declared and with BALLISTA on 14/1 and having won only a LISTED event [1 unp race in G3 company] i looks safe to remove him. That leaves 4 and 2 are previous winners of this race ; first is KINGSGATE NATIVE who won it back in 2010 which turned out to be his last win and is now with R COWELL [trained by M Stoute prev to July 2012]. Although he still has a bit of class in him i can't ignore the fact he is now an 8yo even though he was 2nd in a G3 LTO only 1l behind SOLE POWER who he faces here and was 2nd to in this race back in 2011 [btn 3/4l ]. His age plus the fact he is drawn 10 counts against him imho. As i stated above , SOLE POWER won this in 2011 and conditions will be in his favour again but one stat that catch's my eye with this one is the fact he has never won back-to-back race's [he won a G3 at Newmarket LTO] and also this will be his 4th run in 11 weeks , a fact even his trainer is slightly concerned about - quoted from the Sporting Life - '"It's his fourth run in a couple of months and he's been around a bit. That would be the slight niggle.' Drawn 11 is also something to be wary of , so i'll pass him over . A stable-mate and beaten by KINGSGATE NATIVE LTO , SPIRIT QUARTZ is a dual G3 winner who was 3rd [btn over 2l] behind the 2nd , SOLE POWER , in last years renewal. He would appear to be the yards 2nd string with S hane KEELY on KN and George Baker riding SPIRIT QUATRZ , only his 3rd ride for the stable . That leaves the unbeaten 3yo RECKLESS ABANDON as the selection , this one has had victories in two G1's and two G2's in his 2yo season . A KIRBY has won twice and trainer C COX could not be more bullish about his charge's chance here , quote again from the Sporting Life website - 'Clive Cox believes exciting young sprinter Reckless Abandon has a "real edge on him" as he prepares to strut his stuff in the Betfred Temple Stakes at Haydock on Saturday. The Lambourn trainer believes this Group Two dash over five furlongs is tailor-made for his speedster's seasonal debut ahead of Royal Ascot next month. Cox has always had a sprinting campaign in mind for the three-year-old after he went through his juvenile campaign unbeaten in five starts. The first two were over the minimum trip in which Adam Kirby, who is in the saddle again, was aboard. The last three, which included Group One triumphs in the Prix Morny and Middle Park Stakes, were over six furlongs. "He's in very good form and I'm very happy with him. He has wintered well and hopefully this is a stepping stone to Royal Ascot," said Cox. "It's a shame we don't have a three-year-olds only race at this time of year, but that's the way it is and this is the logical step to take. "I'm very happy with him for his three-year-old debut. I'm delighted the whole team is running well. "Lethal Force just missed out last week in the Duke of York, but the whole team is performing well and I feel this horse has a real edge on him for his seasonal debut. "I hope the ground will be fine for him. "Adam's unbeaten on him, as is Gerald Mosse. I'm delighted to have Adam back on board and hopefully they can continue their good association. "We certainly hope he can be as effective at both five and six furlongs like last year and we are running him in the right races." The last 3yo to win this had won at G2 and G3 as a 2yo. Stake 5pts RECKLESS ABANDON @ 7/2

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends RECKLESS ABANDON 3rd btn nk and a hd. Sat - HAYDOCK - 3.15 - 7f - Group 3 4y-old+ ------------------------------------------------- 11/11 were rated 107 10/11 were returned in top 3 in the betting 10/11 had ran that season , 8 of which had ran within 21 days. 10/11 were Southern trained 9/11 had won or been btn under a length in a Listed/Group race 9/11 had won over 7f , the other 2 were running over the distance for the first time but both had won over 8/9f MONSIUER CHEVALIER [104] and RED DUKE [100] are rated under the preferred 107 mark. PREMIER LOCO has not been out for 51 days . Of the 5 left 4 have not ran for 28-30 days , the other is priced at around 10/1 and looks sure to be outsider of the 5 , so take out LIBRANNO .All remaining 4 are Southern trained and have won over 7f . The German raider AMARILLO has won once over 7f but his last 9 [of 12 career runs] have been over 8f with 6 being on ground described as G/S or SOFT , this will be his 1st attempt on ground officially described as faster than Good . While placing in Group 1's and 2's i believe the distance and going may well be against him. The forecast Fav is ETON FOREVER and he has won 3 times over 7f but all 3 were on G/S[2] and SOFT[1] , his record on G/F is 6,5,4,2,8 . Unless there's significant rain , certainly NOT forecasted, i think it may pay to ignore this one . The conditions should suit last years victor PASTORAL PLAYER down to a tee , fast ground over 7f is what he appears to revel in so his last run when btn into 4th [btn just under 2l] on G/S over C/D can be excused ,esp as he was denied a clear run from 1f out . RED JAZZ started Fav for this race last season and was well beaten by PASTORAL PLAYER , he is another for whom G/F may well not bring out the best . He has won twice on G/S and his 3 wins on GOOD / G/F well about 2secs over standard. PASTORAL PLAYER can repeat his win from last season so stake 5pts @ 3/1 [LADS]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Back for one race only !!!! Cheltenham 2.30 PADDY POWER CHASE -------------------------------------- 9/10 were aged 6 or 7 , 8yo+ have a record 1-12-80 in 10 runnings. 6/10 were making their seasonal debut , the remaining 4 had ran only once with 3 winning and the other finishing 2nd 10/10 had ran in no more than 6 Handicap Chase's 10/10 had won at least at Class 2 grade over fence's 9/10 had won a chase between 2m4f and 2m6f 9/10 had ran in under 10 Chase's 7/10 had previously won at Cheltenham with 8/10 running in a race at that years Festival meeting. Of the 4 runners left all had ran in a race at the Festival . One of the few NH races where age appears to have a significant advantage so take out FINIAN'S RAINBOW , WISHFULL THINKING , CHAMPION COURT , CONQUISTO , HIDDEN CYCLONE , VINO GRECIO , BATTLEGROUP , WOOLCOMBE FOLLY , CARRICKBOY and GIFT OF DGAB who are all aged 8yo+. KUMBESHWAR , ASTRACAD , EASTER METEOR and ATTAGLANCE have all ran at least once this season without winning or being placed. NADIYA DE LA VEGA has already raced 14 times over fences. COLOUR SQUADRON has nover won past 2m1f . TAP NIGHT has only won a Class 4 Chase. Which leave's 3 to consider .. JOHN'S SPIRIT is a Course winner over 2m4f , significantly on Good going. On a feather-weight of 10.02 he has a good record when R McCLERNON is on board - 1 2 2 3 1 5 8 2 7 3 1 . He finished well behind RAJDHANI EXPRESS at the Festival but had made a couple of bad blunders in that race , he made amends for that after winning LTO over C/D. BALLYNAGOUR is an unknown property on Good ground and his one win [from 2 runs in the uk] was on Soft going at Warwick after which he was raised 20lbs in the ratings ! RALDHANI EXPRESS is another C/D winner but is another who appears to be better on Softer going [won 4/5 on Soft-Hvy ] with the sole win on Good being a 6-runner affair which was run 23secs above the standard. Selection - JOHNS SPIRIT looks a decent bet @ 9.00 esp as JJ O'Neill had a winner and a 3rd from 4 runners at Fridays meeting

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Back for one race only !!!! Cheltenham 2.30 PADDY POWER CHASE -------------------------------------- 9/10 were aged 6 or 7 , 8yo+ have a record 1-12-80 in 10 runnings. 6/10 were making their seasonal debut , the remaining 4 had ran only once with 3 winning and the other finishing 2nd 10/10 had ran in no more than 6 Handicap Chase's 10/10 had won at least at Class 2 grade over fence's 9/10 had won a chase between 2m4f and 2m6f 9/10 had ran in under 10 Chase's 7/10 had previously won at Cheltenham with 8/10 running in a race at that years Festival meeting. Of the 4 runners left all had ran in a race at the Festival . One of the few NH races where age appears to have a significant advantage so take out FINIAN'S RAINBOW , WISHFULL THINKING , CHAMPION COURT , CONQUISTO , HIDDEN CYCLONE , VINO GRECIO , BATTLEGROUP , WOOLCOMBE FOLLY , CARRICKBOY and GIFT OF DGAB who are all aged 8yo+. KUMBESHWAR , ASTRACAD , EASTER METEOR and ATTAGLANCE have all ran at least once this season without winning or being placed. NADIYA DE LA VEGA has already raced 14 times over fences. COLOUR SQUADRON has nover won past 2m1f . TAP NIGHT has only won a Class 4 Chase. Which leave's 3 to consider .. JOHN'S SPIRIT is a Course winner over 2m4f , significantly on Good going. On a feather-weight of 10.02 he has a good record when R McCLERNON is on board - 1 2 2 3 1 5 8 2 7 3 1 . He finished well behind RAJDHANI EXPRESS at the Festival but had made a couple of bad blunders in that race , he made amends for that after winning LTO over C/D. BALLYNAGOUR is an unknown property on Good ground and his one win [from 2 runs in the uk] was on Soft going at Warwick after which he was raised 20lbs in the ratings ! RALDHANI EXPRESS is another C/D winner but is another who appears to be better on Softer going [won 4/5 on Soft-Hvy ] with the sole win on Good being a 6-runner affair which was run 23secs above the standard. Selection - JOHNS SPIRIT looks a decent bet @ 9.00 esp as JJ O'Neill had a winner and a 3rd from 4 runners at Fridays meeting

1st JOHNS SPIRIT :nana:nana:nana