JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[BillyHills]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Superb result in a very tricky race mate, well done:clap

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Unfortunately the same result as last year with PLANTEUR unp ... hindsight dictates that SO YOU THINK was the best even money shot you could have wished for !!!:lol Thursday - 3.45 Gold Cup 20f Grp 1 -------------------------- 14/16 were aged between 4 and 6 y-old , only DRUM TAPS and YEATS have won aged 7+ in the past 60 years. 13/15 with a rating were rated 111+ 13/16 had ran either 1 or 2 races that season , 8 had won. 15/16 had won at least 4 races [inc NH] 13/14 started at 11/1 or under 13/16 had winning form at Grp 1 or 2 level Age removes the 7yo ASKAR TAU. Ratings remove BRIDGE OF GOLD , CAUCUS , NEHAAM and GULF OF NAPLES. COLOUR VISION has naver won above G3. Of the 3 left OPINION POLL has yet to win a G1 and was beaten fair and square by FAME AND GLORY in last year's renewal and i can make no case for him to reverse that result this time around. However the other Irish runner could well give the Fav most to do here , SADDLERS ROCK , has ran only 7 times and improved for every run last season culminating in winning the Doncaster Cup from OPINION POLL [albeit with a generous 3yo allowance] He made his seasonal re-appearance in the Listed Saval Beg Stakes at Leopardstown where he finished 3rd of 4 in what was a very slow run race on Heavy ground , surely blew away the cobwebs and this would appear to be the target . SO YOU THINK will be a tough nut to crack and could be the best even money shot since SO YOU THINK ....:loon....but i'm going to go for an upset in the shape of SADDLERS ROCK , 10pts @ 4/1 bog

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends IMHO another hundred yards and we would had another winner ;) 4.25 - Wolferton Handicap - Listed - 1m2f - 4yo+ ----------------------------------------------- 9/9 had ran no later than May 14th 8/9 had last ran at a Grade 1 course 8/9 were 4yo's 6/9 had won a Class 2 , one had won at Listed grade , one had been 2nd in a Listed race and the other had won a Class 3. 6/9 had ran no more than 8 times . Only 1 fav has won in 9 runnings. I'm going to start with that age stat which when given a closer look is quite a significant pointer as the split between 4yo's and those 5yo+ runners is exactly 50/50 with 75 4yo's and 75 older runners having taken their chance but no less than 8 four year olds have been successful. Remove RETRIEVE , BEACHFIRE , KINGS GAMBIT , CON ARTIST , OTTOMAN EMPIRE , QARAABA , HYPER , BLACK SPIRIT , SIRVINO and OPERA GAL. FRENCH NAVY is making his seasonal debut . With 6 winning after only at least 8 previous runs , it should hopefully pay to concentrate on those so remove JUNOOB who has ran 14 times and on top of that 4 of his 5 career wins have been on the AW. MIJHAAR has been running in Listed and G2 company but previous winners seem to be one's who are taking a step up rather than going down a grade or 2. Of the 3 left , DANDANA ran and won at lowly Redcar LTO but on top of that his 3 wins have all been on G/F ground , something it definately won't be tomorrow. GATEWOOD will contest favouritism and certainly has done little wrong so far , winning his 2 races this season , both Cl2's over the 10f. Hard to say if the G/S will suit as he has yet to encounter it , he has future entries in G2 and 3 events so i imagine he's quite highly thought off. KIRTHILL is the other to be considered , a winner over 10f and , importantly , on G/S he does however appear to be the yards 2nd string as Fallon is on DANDANA but Ryan Moore has a 39% [9/23] strike-rate for Cumani over the past 5 season's so it may have been a difficult decision for Fallon to make as the booking of Moore is definately a positive for the stable. hHe was disapointing LTO but was slowly into his stride and was noted as 'keeping on' when 9th of 14 but that was his seasonal debut so allowances can be made. Summary - The future entries of GATEWOOD show the potential J Gosden's runner has and with that in mind i make him the main selection with a slight concern about the going but as he has yet to race on an easy surface he has to be given the benefit of the doubt . The odds on offer for KIRTHILL ensures a 'saver'. Stake 8pts @ 7/2 bog GATEWOOD Stake 2pts @ 14/1 bog KIRTHILL

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends another winner for the trends, well done i'm doing the wokingham for tomorrow

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Thanks Rob and good luck with the Wokingham tomorrow . i'll be concentrating on the Hardwicke :ok GATEWOOD 1st @ 3/1f and the good news is after being 160pts in the red a few weeks back , we're back in black to the tune of 46.25pts ....wohooo:nana

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Sat - Ascot Hardwicke Stakes 12f Grp 2 ------------------------------------------ 16/16 were 4, 5 or 6 y olds 13/13 with a rating were rated at 111 or above. 16/16 were returned at 12/1 or UNDER 15/16 ran at Group level LTO with 8 in Group 1 company LTO 15/16 had ran that season , with 13 of them being placed in the first 3 on at least one occasion. 15/16 had won at Group 2 /3 grade 12/16 had won over 12/13f. 10/10 had ran within 50 days. 7/16 had ran in the Coronation Cup at the DERBY meeting LTO without winning it. Remove those rated Under 111 - ALLIED POWERS , CALICO CAT , FIORENTE and HUNTERS LIGHT. Remove those who have not ran within 50 days - JAKKALBERRY and TESTOSTERONE. The 6 remaining have all won at Group level . Considering the change in going to SOFT it would appear sensible to try and discard any runner who may find this a disadvantage - QUEST FOR PEACE is the only one i have resonable doubts about on this ground [as does his trainer] That leaves - AIKEN - a C/D winner on heavy ground and his other 2 wins this season have all been on easy going over 12f , last time in a Chantilly G2 , also add to that the exceptional form of Trainer /Jockey today and he cannot be ignored.. DUNADEN is the 'class' runner in the race with 2 G1 wins to his name , a 4-time winner over 12f and 6 time winner on ground varying from G/S - Soft although his best wins have been on faster ground which is a slight concern and was beaten over 3l LTO behind AIKEN but was giving away 7lbs that day. Another slight worry is that he has done his best race's from Oct to Jan. MEMPHIS TENNESSEE won the Ormonde [G2] at Chester LTO over 13f on soft gound after being 4th in the Derby and 3rd in the Irish Derby. Again the Trainer / Jockey record this week cannot be under-estimated. RED CADEAUX finished 2nd in the Coronation Cup LTO and had won at G2 + 3 level and has won on G/S and soft . However i have to assume that Aiden O'Brien believes his runner has an edge over RED CADEAUX as his ST NICHOLAS ABBEY won the Coronation Cup and he surely has faith in MEMPHIS finishing in front of this one at least. SEA MOON has won at G2 grade and won on G/S and heavy [albeit when 1/5f in a Yarmouth Maiden] . Stoutes yard has started to show a bit of winning form in the past couple of weeks and had a Roayl winner here today. It has to be taken into account he also finished behind ST NICHOLAS ABBEY in the Breeder Cup and and i'm tempted to assume O'Brien thinks he has his measure here . Summary - At the odds and considering this is still a drop in grade from last season i think MEMPHIS TENNESSE is worth the Nap while if any runner is going to be suited by the ground it's AIKEN from todays hat-trick winning stable of J Gosden. Stake 6pts @ 11/2 [bog] MEMPHIS TENNESSE Stake 4pts @ 7/2 [bog] AIKEN

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends NEWMARKET 3.35 7f Grp 3 3yo+ ----------------------------------- Winners have ranged from 2 Favs p to 2 16/1's and all prices in between. 13/13 had won at LISTED/GROUP level. 13/13 had won at least twice previously. 13/13 were Southern trained [ 7 Newmarket ] 12/13 had ran previously ran that season with 10 being placed 1st-4th at least once. 12/13 had won / been placed or beaten 2l or under in a Group race. 11/13 had won over 7f [ 7 more than once ] 12/12 were rated 107+. 11/11 ran at Listed /Group level LTO [other 2 were Cl 2 ] 8/13 were 4 or 5 y olds. Not unduly worried about the 3y-o's as only 9 have contested the race in the past 9 seasons with 2 win's , four 2nd's so they actually have a very decent record . EDINBURGH KNIGHT [104] , MISTER GREEN [57] , and SOS BRILLANTE [74] fail the ratings limit. FIREBEAM and HOOF IT have yet to win at Listed/Group grade. That leaves 3 who all have won at Listed/Group grade , ran in that class of race LTO and have all raced this season with at least one top 4 finish . LBRANNO won this race last season so there's no worries about C/D and as well being a 4-time winner in G2/3 grade he is definately the 'class' runner in the race . MAJESTIC MYLES has had a good season so far with a 2l 3rd in a Listed followed by a 1 and a 1/2 length 2nd in a Group 3 LTO . A winner over 7f once , his best runs have been over 6f , over which he has won 4 times . BANNOCK represents the 3yo generation and K Fallon has a strike-rate of 23% [15/66] for M Johnston , yet to win over 7f he has nonetheless been placed in 2 from 3 Stakes races over 7f and is bred to stay the distance . I am swayed greatly by the record of the few 3yo's to have ran in this and the booking of Fallon and the horse's future entries in a G3 and Heritage Handicap over 7f catch's the eye. Twice placed at Newmarket from 2 runs can only be considered a positive and his last 2 runs can be excused as he was out-classed in a G2 at York while his 15th place [btn just over 9l] in the G3 Jersey Stakes at the Royal Meeting was admirable from what appeared to be an unfavourable draw With a 9lb pull from the other runners @ 16/1 he's well worth an interest esp if the 8 hold their ground and EW is available. As it stands just now i suggest 10pts win BANNOCK @ 16/1 - Ladbrokes

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Newmarket 3.00 Group 2 3yo+ 12f With help from racecaller.com ------------------------------------ 15/16 were returned at 14/1 or under , BUT only 1 Fav has won from 14 runnings 13/16 were 12f winners 13/16 had ran at Group level LTO. 11/13 with a BHA rating were rated 111+ 10/11 had last ran within 50 days 10/11 had won a Group race , while 7 had been placed in the first 4 in a Group 1. 7/11 had won at Newmarket There have only been 9 three year old runners in the past 101 runnings and one did win , but that was a slow run 4 horse race [ 5.62 secs above standard on G/F] Sir M Stoutes has won this 4 times in the past 11 runnings , only one of his has finished out of the first 3 from 9 runners. The ratings are as good a place to start as any so remove DANDINO , FIORENTE , JOSHUA TREE , MODUN , QUEST FOR PEACE and SEA OF HEARTBREAK. RED CADEAUX's last 2 wins have been over 14f and could this 12f be too short for him these days . HARRIS TWEED has not raced for 55 days but has won a G3 but 4 previous attempts in G2 grade have failed. JAKKALBERRY is an ex-Italian G1 winner [theri Derby i believe ] and 12f is his favourite distance , the easy going will not inconvenience . He ran twice over in Meydan where he finished 3rd in a G3 before being btn by the very decent CIRRUS DES AIGLES in a G1 [3 of his last 7 runs have been G1's] He ran at Royal Ascot when finishing 5th in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes behind SEA MOON and over 5l behind the 2nd that day , RED CADEAUX from who he recieves 3lb here and will strip fitter imo. This is a pretty weak looking G2 imo and i'm going to go for JAKKALBERRY to spring a slight surprise @ 6/1 , Stake 10pts

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Thanks to the Sporting Life updating their website , they now show the past 5 seasons results , so this gives us a chance to delve into the past to see if any pointers can be found and i think i've found one at Sandown this afternoon - 3.40 Sandown - This Class 4 handicap is open to 3yo+ horses . On close inspection we can see that from only 12 runners [from a total of 49] there have been 4 three year-old winners from the past 5 runnings .In other words , 3yo's have won 80% of the last 5 runnungs from only 25% of the total entries. All those 3yo's had won at least once previously and had raced as a 2yo . The winning SP's were 9/2, 6/1 , 8/11f and 4/1. There are only four 3yo's entered today and of those ANGEL GABRIEL has failed to win in 6 attempts and SASH OF HONOUR has yet to win from 3 runs and did not run as a 2yo. [sMS has won this twice with 3yo's from 5 runnings but SOH wears a visor for the 1st time , another negative for me] That leaves 2 to consider with FREDDY Q running for Hannon , he has won twice from 8 attempts inc one over C/D [GF] on his seasonal debut , but has finished last in his past runs after that win . Both those runs were in Class 3 grade so the step back to CL4 should help but has only een dropped 1lb in the handicap . The selection , therefore, is the Al Zarooni runner KIZ KULESI who won on his only run as a 2yo at Newmarket in an October Maiden[the 3rd ,4th ,5th and 6th have all won at least once after that race while the 2nd has yet to race] His re-appearance as a 3yo came at the end of June at Haydock on ground probably did not suit [a look at his sires progeny results pointed that way imo] when 6th of 8 in a Cl4 8f Handicap [sire won twice over 10f in G1/2 grade] M Barzelona rides this one for the 1st time and at odds of 4/1 [lads + b sq] is worth an interest imo Stake 10pts

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheltenham 2.30 ---------------- 11/11 were aged 6,7 or 8. 9yo+ have a record of 0-1-46. 11/11 had ran 1-3 times that season 11/11 had won no more than 2 Handicap Chase's 11/11 had ran in 6-14 Chases before winning this 10/11 had ran in no more than 4 Handicap Chase's 10/11 had won or been placed in a Graded Chase 10/11 have been IRISH/FRENCH bred , UK Breds have a record of 0-3-32. 8/11 had ran at the Cheltenham Festival , 5/11 were Course winners with another 4 having been placed here. So ...Age removes WISHFUL THINKING , TARTAK , HELL'S BAY , HAVE YOU SEEN ME and UNIONISTE. Lack of a run this seasons takes out TATANEN , and NOTUS DE LA TOUR. Won more than 2 Handicap Chase's - RENARD and DE BOITRON Not won/placed in a Graded Chase - KINGSMERE and GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN Ran in more than 4 Handicap Chase's - QUANTATIVEASING , MICHAEL FLIPS and DIVERS All 4 runners left are all French-Breds CRISTAL BONUS has only ran 5 times over Fence's and has failed to place in 3 runs at Cheltenham. All 3 left are Course winners and interestingly 6 of the last 10 winners had ran well in the Paddy Power Chase and that points us towards WALKON and NADIYA DE LA VEGA . N Henderson has won this 3 times from the past 10 and his FONDMORT was brought down 3 out when in contention in 2005. Heavy rain is forecast for Cheltenham on Friday which may well turn the going to Soft which may hand the advantage to current Fav WALKON . Stake 6pts WALKON @ 5/1 Stake 4pts NADIYA DE LA VEGA @ 10/1 both with Ladbrokes

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends welcome back JTW, on the same wavelength for this race, i havent taken my shortlist down yet, but those 2 are favoured presently.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Good to be back Bowles , only 2nd and an UR last week . Saturday - ASCOT 3.10 Listed H'Cap Hurdle [stats thanks to racecaller] ------------------------------------------- 9/9 won by either a 5,6,or 7 yo , 4 yo's have a record of 0-8-33 while 8yo+ are 0-2-25 9/9 had won no more than 2 Handicap Hurdles and had ran in no more than 5 9/9 had won no more than 3 Hurdle races 8/9 had ran between 4 to 10 times over Hurdles 8/9 finished in the first 3 LTO 7/9 were rated between 127 - 136 7/9 were making their seasonal debut or had ran only once 5/9 [5 of the last 6] had ran in that season's Cheltenham Festival Favs have only won one from 9 So , take out 4yos and 8yo+ , PETIT ROBIN , BALDER SUCESS , CAUSE OF CAUSES , RANJAAN , URBAIN DE SIVOLA , KAZLIAN , LYVIUS . OLOFI , BOTHY , PRINCETON PLAINS , FIRST IN THE QUEUE and FIRST AVENUE have all ran in more than 5 Handicap Hurdles. RATTAN has won more than 3 Hurdle races. CASH AND GO [145] , DOUBLE ROSS [142] and IT'S A GIMME [140] are well above the preferred rating markTh That leaves 5 to consider and of those DAN BREEN and BAR DE LIGNE has won on ground described at worst GOOD/SOFT That leaves THOMAS EDISON , RIGIDITY and INTO WAIN with preference for the Heavy -ground winner , RIGIDITY , who was only btn into 2nd by a half length in last seasons renewal off the same mark of 133. He has had one previous outing [as he did last year] and with the yard having 4 winners from 9 runners in the past 7 days the omens are looking favourable, imo. Stake 5pts RIGIDITY @ 25/1 [bet365] Stake 3pts INTO WAIN @ 16/1 [ various] Stake 2pts THOMAS EDISON @ 28/1 [blSq]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends That went well then :eyes Welsh National [thnx to racecaller] -------------- 10/10 were aged 6-9yo , 10yo+ have a record of 0-3-40. In past 7 years French breds have filled 14 of 28 places [5 wins] from less than 26% of the total runners From 2006-2011 4 of 6 winners were rated 142+ & 12 of 24 placed finishers were rated 142+. 10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days 10 of 10 winners had won no more that 2 handicap chases prior to this 9 of 10 winners has run once or twice that season 7 of 10 winners had won at Chepstow before (3 exceptions having first course start) Quite simply it all points to TEAFORTHREE so 10pts @ 3/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends All quiet on the football front [ got a winner tonight though ] so i'll dip my big toe back into the gee-gees.. ASCOT CHASE - Grade 1 - 21f - Soft [stats c/o racecaller.com] ------------------------------------------------- Age - 5/10 were 8yo's , 3 were aged 10yo+ but 2 of those were previous winners of this race . Odds - 7/10 were Fav , Only one winner was returned at double-figure odds . Dist - 10/10 had over 2m4f[20f]+ Class - 9/10 had won either a Grade 1 or 2 Chase Rating - 9/10 rated 150+ Prev race form - The highest placed finisher in the King George has a record here of 4-1-8 .....Record of first 3 in the KG to run here is F111. 7/10 winners had finished in the first 5 in the Arkle in their Novice season. PIGEON ISLAND at 66/1 fails on so many fronts . FINIAN'S RAINBOW is now a 10yo and despite having won at 20f the extra furlong and a half here on ground probably with more give than he'd like [won 5 on GOOD , 4 on G/S of which 1 was his Hurdle debut then the other 3 were in small fields at odds of 4/11 , 2/5 and 2/5 , his one win on Soft was a 3 runner race in which he was returned at 2/13 and only 2 finished ]. CUE CARD is another who may need the ground to have dry out further as he has won 5/7 on Good - G/S and his 2 wins on Soft were his racecourse debut in a Fontwell Bumper and a 4 runner Class 3 Novice . SOMERSBY has won on Soft ground but that was a 3 runner race Class 2 event in which the 2rd was a 25/1 shot , his optimum distance seems to be 16-17f over which he has won 5 times [from 6 career wins] GHIZAO is currently priced at 12/1 but is one who should handle the ground , however although he did beat CAPTAIN CHRIS twice in consecutive races in their novice years but the CAPTAIN has since finished 1st in front of GHIZAO twice from 3 runs [ Cpt Chris unseated at the last when well in front of GHIZAO in that other race] CAPTAIN CHRIS has won at 21f but that was a 3 runner race at odds of 2/5 but he has been competing at 19-24f in 4 of his last 5 runs of which 2 were a 2nd and 3rd in consecutive King George's and a respectable 4th in last season's Ryanair at the festival. His H2H record against the others in tomorrows race is - v CUE CARD finished 2nd to CC 5th , 20l in front in the KG v FINIANS he has won both with Finians 4th and 2nd btn 24l and 3l v GHIZAO see above v SOMERSBY he has finished 4th to Somersby's 7th [btn 11l] and 3rd to Somersby's 4th [only 3/4l at level weights] The HOBBS yard has been in-form in the last week with 3 winners and 4 places from 10 runners. CAPTAIN CHRIS has won 2 Grade 1's and 2 Grade 2 Chase's as well as being the highest placed finisher from this seasons' King George , he also was 2nd in his run in the ARKLE . Stake 10pts @ 3.50

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends My Unbiased [:D] opinion is that the Captain would have beaten Cue Card IF he had jumped the 2nd last cleanly .....see signature !!! RACING PLUS CHASE -------------------- 10/10 were returned 11/1 or shorter in the market. 9/10 carried 10:13+ with 10/10 rated 141+ 9/10 had ran in 2-4 Chases since August 8/10 had won at 3m+ [other 2 were having their first run at 3m+] 8/10 had been 1st or 2nd in a Listed/Graded Chase 8/10 had ran in 9 or fewer Handicap Chase's 6/10 had won at Kempton [other 4 were making their course debut] I think i'd rather stick to the ratings stat rather then the weights so take out those rated UNDER 141 [DUKE OF LUCCA , OPENING BATSMAN , SAME DIFFERENCE , MISTER HYDE and SUMMERY JUSTICE. The Bookies seem to get this one almost correct so out go the 3 long odds runners left - WHAT A FRIEND , HECTORS CHOICE and QUANTATATIVEASING. QUINZ is the only runner left who has ran less than twice this season ...first run for 449 days to be precise ! The 4 left have all won at 3m. This will be previous winner's NACARAT's 12th Chase. ROLLING ACES has yet to run in a Listed/Graded Chase and being only his 4th Chase start i'll keep him in . WYCK HILL has ran here twice and been btn in both. Applying those stats leaves 2 runners and although there seems to be no preferred age , those 2 winners aged 10+ had previously been placed in this race so with that in mind and the fact that ROBERTO GOLDBACK is on the outer limits of the SP range i'll leave him out . That leaves one runner and thats the Nichols trained ROLLING ACES ...as i say he has yet to run in a Graded or Listed race but as he has only 3 runs over Fences thats no surprise and when you consider the stables record with young Chasers it's worth passing that stat over. A winner over 24f [in a P-T-P ] and 23f over Rules and loves a good bit of give in the ground , he has ran 4 times this season . Carries a handy 11:00 and is currently 2nd Fav. Stake 10pts @ 4/1 [various]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 4.20 Fairyhouse NH Flat race 5,6 and 7yos ----------------------------------------------------------- 14/14 were aged 5 [11] or 6 [3] Winning odds have ranged from Fav to 14/1 , 7 were outright Favs from 14. WP MULLINS has won this 5 times since 2003 [8 runnings as he had no entry in 2006 +2012 . MULLINS has an exceptional strike-rate of 49% in NHF races at Fairyhouse [19 from 39 in 5 seasons , 6 from 18 in 2012-13] Today he runs the 5yo WICKLOW GOLD who is currently 9/2 with Betvictor and Boylesports is well worth an interest at those odds.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends CHELTENHAM -Tuesday selected races [stats thax to racecaller.com ------------------------------------- ARKLE TROPHY ------------------ 20/22 were rated 150+ 12/12 were returned at odds at 11/1 or Under , in fact if i've got it right this stat goes back at least 21 years. However only 3 favs have won in those 21 runnings. 11/12 had finished in the first 2 in ALL completed Chase's 11/12 had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase [9/10 had been 1st or 2nd in a Grade 1 or 2 Hurdle] 11/12 were rated 140+ over hurdles 7/12 had previously won at Cheltenham [ 2 were making their course debut] The best place to start , stat-wise , is the market imo such is the record of those around the 11/1 or shorter mark so take out MAJALA , BAILY GREEN , TAP NIGHT and HIS EXCELLENCY. The remaining 3 are all rated over 150 , have been placed 1st or 2nd in all completed Chase's and were rated 140+ over hurdles. The problem with OVERTURN is his failure to have won a G1 or 2 Chase , although he has won Grade 1+ 2 hurdles , together with his seeming to prefer G/S to GOOD ground is enough for me to reject his chance. That leaves 2 runners who should not be troubled by the Ground the first being Course winner and odds-on Fav SIMONSIG [who although having not run since Dec 27th has won after a 60+ day break 3 times from 3] and the Irish runner ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE who was 4th in the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle back in 2010 and has had an outing this year [fell ] It's hard to ignore the obvious chance of SIMONSIG but at odds of 8/13 i'd prefer to go for ARKIVA @ 11/4 with WmHill without the fav Stake 10pts CHAMPION HURDLE ----------------------- 12/12 had finished in the first 4 in a hurdle race at a previous FESTIVAL HURDLE RACE 11/12 had ran within the past 50 days [ 17/18 had all ran in that Calender year , last years winner ROCK ON RUBY had previously won 4/5 races where he was returning from a 60+ day break , as was the case in last season's renewal] 9/12 had ran between 3-5 times that season 10/12 had ran at least 10 times over Hurdles 9/12 had won a G1 hurdle Take out the obvious no-hopers BALDUR SUCCES and KHYBER KYM. Previous placed form in a Festival Hurdle is probably the hardest to ignore but frustratingly all 7 left have done so !! CINDERS AND ASHES last ran 76 days ago and has ran 3 after a 60+ day break without winning as has GRANDOUET [87 day break] BINOCULAR has ran just once this season and you have to go back to 1975 to find the last winner to have regained the crown after losing it , i also don't think the potentially tacky ground will help him. The going is also a concern for last years winner ROCK ON RUBY who never won on ground classed s GOOD - G/S ,the wearing of headgear does not endear him to me either . Despite KATCHIT'S win in 2008 , 5yo's have a poor record with only that one win in 25 years , so COUNTRYWIDE FLAME is discarded as he has disppointed in his last 2 runs. HURRICANE FLY could only beat who been up against him so despite having only beaten 13 rivals in 3 runs @ odds of 1/5 , 1/6 and 2/5 he has to be respected but the same applies to him as it does to BINOCULAR in the fact that it's very hard for a previous winner who has lost the crown to then regain it . Therefore my selection is ZARKANDAR , i'm prepared to let him off with only having had 9 previous hurdle race's as he fits the others perfectly and should handle the ground. An additional positive is the record of 6yo's who ran in the race as a 5yo - 3-2-8. Stake 10pts @ 7/2

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Both unp..:\ Weds - RSA CHASE ---------------------- 12/12 finished 1st or 2nd last time out 12/12 had won at 2m5f+ 12/12 had last ran no longer than 55 days previously 11/12 had ran in 3 to 5 chases 10/12 had finished in the first 3 in either a Grade 1 or 2 chase 10/12 were IRISH bred , the other 2 were French-bred's The last 6 winners were all rated 136+ over Hurdles Didn't finish in the first 2 LTO - LORD WINDERMERE , LYREEN LEGEND and REAL MILAN . Never won at 2m5f+ - THEATRICAL STAR. Those who have race in less than 3 or more than 5 Chase's - BOSTON BOB and HOUBLON DES OBEAUX . Never finished in the first 3 in either a Grade 1 or 2 Chase - VINTAGE STAR and UNIONISTE GOULANES and TERMINAL were only rated 131 over Hurdles. Which leaves the Henderson trained HADRIANS APPROACH and an added positive is that the trainer has won 2 of the last 10 and both finished in the first 3 in the FELTHAM at Kemptons Christamas meeting , HADRIANS finshed 2nd in this seasons race. Stake 10pts @ 6/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends The Gold Cup [stats thnx to racecaller.com] ------------ 10/10 were aged between 6 and 9yo , 10yo's + have a 10 year record of 0-5-45. 10/10 had won a Grade 1 Chase , with 8 winning one that season [ 2 exceptions had been 2nd in a Grade 1] 10/10 had ran in the King George or Lexus Chase with 9 finishing either 1st or 2nd. 9/10 had ran between 8 and 11 Chases in their career [exception was KAUTO STAR , a previous winner] 9/10 had won 3m+. 9/10 finished 1st or 2nd LTO 9/10 had ran in a Chase in a previous Festival. SUNNYHILL BOY is a 10yo who has never ran in a Grade 1. CAPE TRIBULATION , MONBEG DUDE , WAYWARD PRINCE and THE GIANT BOLSTER have never won a Grade 1. SILVINACIO CONTI has never experienced the Festival at all. CAPTAIN CHRIS will be having his 14th run over fences . Another statistic i came across on the ATR site is that 11 of the past 12 winners were rated 166+ which rules out SIR DES CHAMPS who may well have preferred a lot more rain imo. This will be LONG RUN's 16th Chase but as a previous winner that won't count against him here. He will have ground more suited to him this year , esp with some rain forecast tomorrow and demands res[ect as winner of this season's KING GEORGE. BOBS WORTH is 4/4 around Cheltenham inc 2 Festival wins . He is a lightly raced individual but has no rpoblem winning after significant breaks , so the fact that we have not seen him out since the 1st of December in not a concern. On paper there is nothing between these 2 and i think that if a professional was on board he would be a couple of points shorter in the betting but despite his critics Sam Waley-Cohen has won 2 Kings George's and a Gold Cup on board the family pet and has a great chance of making it 2 from 3 here , his stable-mate is his closest danger ,imho. Stake 10pts @ 6/1 LONG RUN

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Tis' time to re-ignite the fire and the start of another Flat season is the perfect opportunity and what better way to start than a race full of un-raced 2yo's !!! The one and only 2yo race i look at - DONCASTER -Friday - 2.00 BROCKLESBY STAKES - 5f --------------------------------------------------- 14/15 returned at odds of 14/1 or UNDER [only 1 co-Fav] 12/15 were Colts. 13/15 were FEB / MARCH foals. 12/14 were sired by a horse which had an average winning distance [according to Racing Post ] of between 6.6f - 7.7 f [ 2009 winning sire's not quoted ] None had average of over 8.9f. Looking a bit closer into the sex of the winner and although Colts have won 12/15 runnings , Fillies have 3 wins , four 2nd's and nine 3rd places from under 25% of all runners. A filly has been placed between 1st , 2nd and 3rd in 11/14 runnings. So it would be foolish to discount their chance esp as from only 2 runners last year MAYFIELD GIRL was 3rd @ 33/1 ! I believe that HIGH numbers usually hold sway in this . Ideally we should be looking for a Colt drawn HIGH whose sire has an ave win dist between 6.6f and 7.7f , but not discounting the chance of a Filly who also fits the other criteria.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Trainers record in March/April with 2yo runners [past 4 seasons] who have entries in this years Brocklesby B POWELL - 0/8 K STUBBS - 0/0 [first season trainer] C SMITH - 0/0 R MILLMAN - 2/15 JS MOORE - 2/36 P MIDGELEY - 0/45 M EASTERBY - 1/4 R FAHEY - 16/46 R HANNON - 21/69 W TURNER - 9/42 R HARRIS - 0/7 J HUGHES - 0/8 [1 season] M BRITTAIN - 0/12 M CHANNON - 15/92 D EVANS - 18/116 M JOHNSTON - 4/19 [all 4 were last season] M APPLEBY - 0/1 [2 seasons] D GRIFFITHS - 0/2 [3 seasons] K DALGLIESH - 0/4 [2 season]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Sunday - 3.50 Curragh - PARK EXPRESS STAKES - Grp 3 ------------------------------------------------------ Upgraded to G3 in 2006 No obvious age advantage with a 50/50 split between 3yo's and the older generation 7/7 had won at 7 or 8f [6 at 8f ] 7/7 had won at least once 6/7 had won or been placed in a Listed or Group race 6/7 had an official rating , 5 were rated 98+ and were in the top half of those with a rating . 5/7 were drawn no higher than stall 8 Only 1 [jt-] fav has won from 7 . A O'Brien has ran 8 horses in 5 of those renewals , finishing 2nd on 4 occasions and the others were unp , so not a lucky race for him.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Brocklesby ----------- 7/7 were sired by horses who had won at 5/6f in either Group 1 or 2 level. 6/7 won at G1 , 1 at G2. 6/7 won at Group grade over 6f. HIGH drawn runners have an advantage . There are 17 runners declared for Fridays race and i'll split the race into 2 groups based on sex so there will be 2 selections , one a Colt , the other one of the 4 filly's. The first stat's i'll apply is to remove any runner born after March and those with a sire whose ave win dist is outside the criteria of 6.6f - 7.7f and that takes out - Colts ----- DONNY ROVER - Born 14th April , 8.2f DOVIL'S DUEL - 21st April. KRAKA GYM - 25th April. LORD CLYDE - 3Oth April MR CHILDREV - 21st April. SLEAFORD - 8.3f SLEEPY JOE Born 2nd April but sire's ave win dist is 7.5f and M Channon has a strong FTO 2yo record in March/April so i'll keep him in for the moment. VODKA TIME - 12th April Fillies ----- BRIDGE OF AVON - 10th April. DONCASTER BELLE - 9.0f RED BIBA - 13th April. Looking at the Sires Group winning record i noticed that SLEEPY JOE's was a Group 2 winner BUT over 8f , so thats 2 doubts i have with this one and i have to discard it . With 17 declared it may well be that the bias towards the stands-side runners have a bigger advantage than usual , so being drawn in stall 1 rules out BROCKHOLES FLYER. Trainer-wise PAUL MIDGELEY has a poor record with his 2yo's overall with only 10 wins from 287 runs in 5 seasons , never had a 2yo winner earlier than May and only had one 2yo win since August 2010 [106 runners in that period] so take out FUEL INJECTION. Of the 4 trainers left both W TURNER and JS MOORE have had early season winners while Jo MORRIS and M APPLEBY have only been training for a short wile so lee-way can be given. FAR GAZE represents JS MOORE but he has another runner in the race on board whom LIAM KENIRY rides and he would appear to ride the majority of the stables runners so i have to assume FAR GAZE is the stable's 2nd string , also although MOORE has had 2 early season winners they were both in April 2011 and one of those was having their 2nd run of the season. On closer inspection the stable have had only 1 juvenile debut winner in March in 11 seasons from 33 FTO runners . I'm not convinced this is the one . MICKS YER MAN is WmTURNER's sole runner this season and this stable's record in this race speaks for itself having had a runner in every race since '98 - 7th, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 1st, unp, 3rd, 5th, 1st, unp, 1st , 6th , 2nd , 1st , 4th is an extremely decent record . He has put up Apprentices to win this before so the fact he has repeated that here is not a concern , in fact the young man on board on Friday , Ryan While , already has an impressive record with his 2yo mounts - 7 wins from 33 runners since June 2011. The sire was a winner in Group 1 company over 6f . Definately with a chance especially from stall 13. PICKS PINTA is not ideally drawn in 7 and the fact that , although only been traning for 2 seasons , Jo HUGHES has failed to have a FTO winner from 22 attempts. Unless i can find something i've overlooked or there's something positive emerge's i can't put money on this one. MOPS ANGEL is the sole filly left and it's encouraging the the stable has had 20 runners in the past 14 days with 3 winning and 9 placed . She has a decent draw in stall 12 and Andrew Mullen rides regularly for the yard . Interesting to see what odds are offered for her.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Stake 2pts win MICKS YER MAN Stake 1pt E/W MOPS ANGEL

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Stake 2pts win MICKS YER MAN Stake 1pt E/W MOPS ANGEL

superb 5/1 winner

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Stake 2pts win MICKS YER MAN 1st @ 5/1 :loon Stake 1pt E/W MOPS ANGEL 4th @ 14/1 Cheers Rob :ok lets hope the meeting survives the weather tomorrow and your selections in the Lincoln do the business .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Sunday - 3.50 Curragh - PARK EXPRESS STAKES - Grp 3 ------------------------------------------------------ Upgraded to G3 in 2006 No obvious age advantage with a 50/50 split between 3yo's and the older generation 7/7 had won at 7 or 8f [6 at 8f ] 7/7 had won at least once 6/7 had won or been placed in a Listed or Group race 6/7 had an official rating , 5 were rated 98+ and were in the top half of those with a rating . 5/7 were drawn no higher than stall 8 Only 1 [jt-] fav has won from 7 . A O'Brien has ran 8 horses in 5 of those renewals , finishing 2nd on 4 occasions and the others were unp , so not a lucky race for him.

BEACH OF FALESA is rated only 89 and MORE THAN SOTKA 96. REHN'S NEST is still a Maiden. STARBRIGHT has never been placed in a Listed/Group race . Which leaves the probable Fav YELLOW ROSEBUD , a 4yo who is a double Group 3 winner inc once on Heavy going and the other over tomorrows distance of 8f. Top rated at 107 , 8lbs higher than his nearest rival. The only worry is the poor record of Favs but i'll give leeway this time..as 3 of the last 4 were O'Brien trained and his record for the first couple of weeks is not as strong as is generally thought , imo of course. Stake 5pts @ 1.72

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

BEACH OF FALESA is rated only 89 and MORE THAN SOTKA 96. REHN'S NEST is still a Maiden. STARBRIGHT has never been placed in a Listed/Group race . Which leaves the probable Fav YELLOW ROSEBUD , a 4yo who is a double Group 3 winner inc once on Heavy going and the other over tomorrows distance of 8f. Top rated at 107 , 8lbs higher than his nearest rival. The only worry is the poor record of Favs but i'll give leeway this time..as 3 of the last 4 were O'Brien trained and his record for the first couple of weeks is not as strong as is generally thought , imo of course. Stake 5pts @ 1.72

2nd @ 8/11 to RHENS NEST which completed a J BOLGER treble on the day .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

BEACH OF FALESA is rated only 89 and MORE THAN SOTKA 96. REHN'S NEST is still a Maiden. STARBRIGHT has never been placed in a Listed/Group race . Which leaves the probable Fav YELLOW ROSEBUD , a 4yo who is a double Group 3 winner inc once on Heavy going and the other over tomorrows distance of 8f. Top rated at 107 , 8lbs higher than his nearest rival. The only worry is the poor record of Favs but i'll give leeway this time..as 3 of the last 4 were O'Brien trained and his record for the first couple of weeks is not as strong as is generally thought , imo of course. Stake 5pts @ 1.72

2nd @ 8/11 to RHENS NEST which completed a J BOLGER treble on the day .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 2nd @ 8/11 to RHENS NEST which completed a J BOLGER 4-timer on the day .