JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends nice one mate, great win:nana, i went for the other 3yo and should have played the draw into it :wall well done again

[Boulder5111]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends great winner jtw, won going away - nice pick :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Nice one JTW:clap

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends STAKE 10pts NIGHT CARNATION @ 6/1. :loon Back in profit ..... +25pts :ok Thanks for the positive comments guys :ok Thursday - Newmarket 3.30 Group 2 3yo+ 12f With help from racecaller.com ------------------------------------ 14/15 were returned at 14/1 or under , BUT only 1 Fav has won from 14 runnings 12/15 were 12f winners 13/15 had ran at Group level LTO. 10/12 with a BHA rating were rated 111+ 9/10 had last ran within 50 days 9/10 had won a Group race , while 7 had been placed in the first 4 in a Group 1. 6/10 had won at Newmarket There have only been 8 three year old runners in the past 10 and one did win , but that was a slow run 4 horse race [ 5.62 secs above standard on G/F] Sir M Stoutes has won this 3 times in the past 10 runnings , only one of his has finished out of the first 3 from 8 runners. This tends to fall to a Group race winner who has been tried [unsuccessfully] at G1 level and ran at Royal Ascot/France last time out. I can't see the younger age group being involved in the finish here so BUTHELEZI and DORDOGNE are removed. TED SPREAD is rated 104 . REDWOOD has not raced for 103 days [has won after a long break] and B HILLS has not had the winner of this since '79 at least. MY PLACELATER has not been out for 56 days and while i'd maybe consider him for the sake of 6 days , this race usually falls to a top top Southern yard. Of those left AFSARE has only won at Listed grade and the forecast heavy rain will also be a negative. CAMPANOLOGIST ran in the Hardwicke lto [4/10 last ran in that race] but seems to keep his best form for races outside the UK , G1 wins in COLOGNE and HAMBURG in '10. The soft ground at Ascot would not have helped his cause but unless young BARZELONA can conjure something i think there's one or two better. CITY LEADER has yet to win beyond 11f , twice beaten over 12f , but his last win in a Listed race has seen the 2nd and 3rd go on to win while the 4th was btn only half a length [All in Listed company. He has won a G2 and been placed in a G1 , while any change in the going should not be a worry. LAAHEB has disappointed this season but has won 3 times at Newmarket , inc once over the 12f. He has won on G/F and G/S so no worries on that score. Ran LTO in the Hardwicke at RA , finishing 4th just over 5l behind the odds-on AWAIT THE DAWN. Finished 4th in the G1 Sheema Classic earlier in the year and i think he might just have a we bit of improvement to come this season [ never won earlier than 26th June in prev years] CRYSTAL CAPELLA has won twice over 12f on the Rowley Course and ground conditions should not be a concern. A proven G2 performer she should improve for her seasonal bow in Listed race where she was giving away 7lb's to every runner. She has ran in 2 G1's , the only races she finished out of the first 4 , and the from of STOUTE runners in this race is 2nd to none . Even taking into account his relatively poor season so far this one must have a chance on that score alone . Summary - CITY LEADER's lack of a win over the 12f is enough to put me off making it a selection . I think it's a toss-up between LAAHEB and CRYSTAL CAPELLA where the difference in trainer-form is night and day , VARIAN has won 7 from 7 in the past 14 days while STOUTE has managed 2 wins from 23 in the same time BUT SMS's record in this particular race cannot be overlooked therefore i suggest a bet on both. Stake 5pts @ 5/1 - CRYSTAL CAPELLA Stake 5pts @ 6/1 - LAAHEB

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Friday - 3.00 Newmarket - Group 1 Falmouth Stakes - 8f - 3y-old+ ------------------------------------------------------------------ Age - 3yold's have won 10/14 , in fact they have won 24/32 , but since the race was upgraded in 2004 to Group 1 status there has been a 60/40 split between the 3yo's and their elders. No horse aged over 5 won in the past 30 runnings . 14/15 were returned at 10/1 or UNDER. Ratings - Since the race was upgraded to Grp 1 status 5/6 were rated 110+ 14/15 ran at either Royal Ascot or France . Distance wins - 12/15 were winners over 8f. 4/7 had won a G1 , 2 had won at G2 grade [one of those beaten a half length in a G1] The other was won by a 50/1 shot , that race was run over 4 secs slower than standard , where she made all and stole the race , SOVIET SONG was the one the rest were worried about but she flopped that day and the rest were caught out by the winner. FIRST CITY [107] , TIMEPIECE [108] , JOVIALITY [105] and MASAYA [96] are all rated under 110. The Globe-trotting RIVER JETEZ is now an 8yold who is used to running over 9/10f. ANTARA and I'M A DREAMER have never won above G3 grade. MAQAASID finished 8th lto and has never won over 8f [ won twice over 5f] That leaves LILY OF THE VALLEY , SAHPRESA and MEMORY to consoder and i'll leave the final decision until after racing tomorrow to see exactly how much rain arrives .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

STAKE 10pts NIGHT CARNATION @ 6/1. :loon Back in profit ..... +25pts :ok Thanks for the positive comments guys :ok Thursday - Newmarket 3.30 Group 2 3yo+ 12f With help from racecaller.com ------------------------------------ 14/15 were returned at 14/1 or under , BUT only 1 Fav has won from 14 runnings 12/15 were 12f winners 13/15 had ran at Group level LTO. 10/12 with a BHA rating were rated 111+ 9/10 had last ran within 50 days 9/10 had won a Group race , while 7 had been placed in the first 4 in a Group 1. 6/10 had won at Newmarket There have only been 8 three year old runners in the past 10 and one did win , but that was a slow run 4 horse race [ 5.62 secs above standard on G/F] Sir M Stoutes has won this 3 times in the past 10 runnings , only one of his has finished out of the first 3 from 8 runners. This tends to fall to a Group race winner who has been tried [unsuccessfully] at G1 level and ran at Royal Ascot/France last time out. I can't see the younger age group being involved in the finish here so BUTHELEZI and DORDOGNE are removed. TED SPREAD is rated 104 . REDWOOD has not raced for 103 days [has won after a long break] and B HILLS has not had the winner of this since '79 at least. MY PLACELATER has not been out for 56 days and while i'd maybe consider him for the sake of 6 days , this race usually falls to a top top Southern yard. Of those left AFSARE has only won at Listed grade and the forecast heavy rain will also be a negative. CAMPANOLOGIST ran in the Hardwicke lto [4/10 last ran in that race] but seems to keep his best form for races outside the UK , G1 wins in COLOGNE and HAMBURG in '10. The soft ground at Ascot would not have helped his cause but unless young BARZELONA can conjure something i think there's one or two better. CITY LEADER has yet to win beyond 11f , twice beaten over 12f , but his last win in a Listed race has seen the 2nd and 3rd go on to win while the 4th was btn only half a length [All in Listed company. He has won a G2 and been placed in a G1 , while any change in the going should not be a worry. LAAHEB has disappointed this season but has won 3 times at Newmarket , inc once over the 12f. He has won on G/F and G/S so no worries on that score. Ran LTO in the Hardwicke at RA , finishing 4th just over 5l behind the odds-on AWAIT THE DAWN. Finished 4th in the G1 Sheema Classic earlier in the year and i think he might just have a we bit of improvement to come this season [ never won earlier than 26th June in prev years] CRYSTAL CAPELLA has won twice over 12f on the Rowley Course and ground conditions should not be a concern. A proven G2 performer she should improve for her seasonal bow in Listed race where she was giving away 7lb's to every runner. She has ran in 2 G1's , the only races she finished out of the first 4 , and the from of STOUTE runners in this race is 2nd to none . Even taking into account his relatively poor season so far this one must have a chance on that score alone . Summary - CITY LEADER's lack of a win over the 12f is enough to put me off making it a selection . I think it's a toss-up between LAAHEB and CRYSTAL CAPELLA where the difference in trainer-form is night and day , VARIAN has won 7 from 7 in the past 14 days while STOUTE has managed 2 wins from 23 in the same time BUT SMS's record in this particular race cannot be overlooked therefore i suggest a bet on both. Stake 5pts @ 5/1 - CRYSTAL CAPELLA Stake 5pts @ 6/1 - LAAHEB

1st CRYSTAL CAPELLA @ 4/1 , 5/1 taken Gave LAAHEB a couple of chances this season but it looks like he's completely lost his form. Profit = 40pts

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends another winner , well done on top form :clap

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Friday - 3.00 Newmarket - Group 1 Falmouth Stakes - 8f - 3y-old+ ------------------------------------------------------------------ Age - 3yold's have won 10/14 , in fact they have won 24/32 , but since the race was upgraded in 2004 to Group 1 status there has been a 60/40 split between the 3yo's and their elders. No horse aged over 5 won in the past 30 runnings . 14/15 were returned at 10/1 or UNDER. Ratings - Since the race was upgraded to Grp 1 status 5/6 were rated 110+ 14/15 ran at either Royal Ascot or France . Distance wins - 12/15 were winners over 8f. 4/7 had won a G1 , 2 had won at G2 grade [one of those beaten a half length in a G1] The other was won by a 50/1 shot , that race was run over 4 secs slower than standard , where she made all and stole the race , SOVIET SONG was the one the rest were worried about but she flopped that day and the rest were caught out by the winner. FIRST CITY [107] , TIMEPIECE [108] , JOVIALITY [105] and MASAYA [96] are all rated under 110. The Globe-trotting RIVER JETEZ is now an 8yold who is used to running over 9/10f. ANTARA and I'M A DREAMER have never won above G3 grade. MAQAASID finished 8th lto and has never won over 8f [ won twice over 5f] That leaves LILY OF THE VALLEY , SAHPRESA and MEMORY to consoder and i'll leave the final decision until after racing tomorrow to see exactly how much rain arrives .

The going is now officially good , although todays winning times would suggest it's rather on the Softish side tbh. MEMORY has not ran on this type of surface and has yet to win beyond 6f and may need to drop a couple of grades in class imo. LILY OF THE VALLEY and SAHPRESA should have no problem with the ground conditions. The former is taking a drop down in distance , won her last 3 victories over 9-10f. A pipe-opener over 11f last time will have helped her fitness and she has won a G1 but that drop in distance is a worry for me. SAHPRESA won her seasonal debut easily [G3] and has won twice at Newmarket [albeit the Rowley course] in 8f Group 1 races . She record in G1 's is - 4,1,3,1,4,3 . A slight negative is the fact she is a 6yo , but from only 5 runners aged 6+ over the past 10 season's 3 have actually been placed. Stake 10pts - SAHPRESA @ 3/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SAHPRESA 2nd , well backed down to 13/8 fav !! Going to have a wee try at one of todays Handicaps for a change. 2.55 BUNBURY CUP ------------------ The last 7 winners were all rated 94 + 4 Year olds have won 5/10 from only 36% of the runners. 10/10 had won over 7f. 9/10 had won at Class 2/3 level. 10/10 were drawn within 7 stalls of the top/bottom numbers. 10/10 had won / placed LTO OR been unp at Royal Ascot. 7/10 were reported as having 'led' or 'chased leaders' in prev races. 9/10 were returned at 16/1 0r under , 3 favs have won. Cutting quickly to the chase we are left with EXCELLENT GUEST , NASRI and SHAMANDAR. EXCELLENT GUEST finished 2nd in the Buckingham Palace Stakes and has been raised 4lb's for that effort . The stable hasn't really been in winning form in the past 14 days and only 2 winners this season . May have missed his chance last time out . NASRI was unp in the Wokingham , he is another who has went up in the weights after winning a Cl3 Musselburgh race at the end of April . up 7lb's for that . SHAMANDAR missed out the whole of 2010 and made a pleasing return when 67th of 28 in the Victoria Cup before flopping in the G2 Windsor Forest Stakes over a Mile at the Royal meeting . The Grade , trip and very fast ground that day was probably against him that day and this drop in Grade , easier ground , return to 7f and the 23% strike rate of HAGGAS/HILLS gives him a good chance esp dropping a couple of lb's in the ratings . Stake 10pts SHAMANDAR @ 18/1 [bet365]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 2.35 Newmarket 12f Listed 3yo+ -------------------------------------- Race was dead-heated for 1st in 2002. 13/14 were returned 12/1 or Under. 12/14 were 3 or 4 yo [ approx 50/50 split ] there was no 3yo runner last season ] 12/14 ran at Group level LTO 12/14 had ran and won at least once that season The last 11 winners had BHA ratings and all those were 98+ 7/14 ran in the Lancs Oaks LTO Six 4/5yo's have carried a penalty and 3 have won. [none last season] J GOSDEN has won this 4 times from the past 12 runnings. [no runner last season] GALLIC STAR , OPERA GAL , PLAISTERER , CHARLESTON LADY , IMPERIAL PIPPIN , MONICALEW and WILD COCO are all rated below the 98 mark . NEVER FORGET is around 14-16/1 mark , an ex-French trained runner she is now with Cumani after running in G1/2's in her native land . Beaten 30l LTO she may take another race or two to find her form , a bit of give in the ground would be to her advantage imo. MEEZNAH is the top rated runner , has only won a Cl4 but has competed and been placed at G1 and 2 level. No doubt her seasonal debut will have brought her on fitness-wise but has she been unlucky or is simply one-paced . CEILIDH HOUSE and SEA OF HEARTBREAK finished 3rd and 2nd respectively to the future FALMOUTH STAKES winner TIMEPIECE lto. That was CEILIDH HOUSE's seasonal debut while S o H had had 2 previous outings so , in theory , CEILIDH HOUSE has a bit more improvement to come . There was one length between them at Warwick , with the weight difference being the same tomorrow as it was then . CEILIDH HOUSES's 2 career wins have been on G/S ground [heavy rain forecast ] while the G/F should suit SoH. SoH has an added advantage in that his usual partner , S Drowne , teams up once again tomorrow. AS you can see i find it difficult to separate CEILIDH HOUSE and SEA OF HEARTBREAK so Stake 5pts on both @ 6/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends GOODWOOD 3.10 Group 2 LENNOX STAKES ----------------------------------------- Run as a Group 2 since 2003 so it's those last 8 years i'll concentrate on. 8/8 were rated 110+ 6/8 were taking a step down from G1 or had ran at G2 LTO [last season's winner won a Listed after running in a G1 ] Only 1 Fav has won in those 8 runnings 7/8 were returned at 7/1 or under. 7/8 had won at Group 2 or 3 grade 6/8 were previous 7f winners [2009 winner had been btn only a sh-hd over 7f]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

GOODWOOD 3.10 Group 2 LENNOX STAKES ----------------------------------------- Run as a Group 2 since 2003 so it's those last 8 years i'll concentrate on. 8/8 were rated 110+ 6/8 were taking a step down from G1 or had ran at G2 LTO [last season's winner won a Listed after running in a G1 ] Only 1 Fav has won in those 8 runnings 7/8 were returned at 7/1 or under. 7/8 had won at Group 2 or 3 grade 6/8 were previous 7f winners [2009 winner had been btn only a sh-hd over 7f] 3yo have won 4 4yo+ have won 4 However only 21 from 77 runners were 3yo's [approx 29%]

BEACON LODGE [109] , DONCASTER ROVER [106] , and MAJESTIC MYLES [102] are under the required 110 limit. The remaining 6 have all won over 7f , won at least at G3 level and are all either stepping down from G1 or raced at G2 LTO. The oldest winner has been a 5yo , so with BALTHAZAR'S GIFT now an 8yo [finished tailed off in the Lockinge LTO ] I have to pass him by. GOODWOOD is a course where previous experience [preferably winning or close placed] is a strong positive . RED JAZZ was beaten into 8th on his only previous run here in last season's renewal which is enough for me to let him go. 4 to consider - DELEGATOR has won [although subsequently disq] here and has won twice over 7f. A Group 2 winner , he ran a gallant 5th [btn 3l] in the July Cup LTO . Godolphin have won this twice since 2003 . one drawback is that he has to give at least 4lb's to every rival here. DALGHAR is a G3 winner , won twice over 7f and was only btn 3 quarters of length when 3rd in this race last year. Formerly trained in France , it could be argued that in his 3 runs in the UK he has been unfortunate in all of them . When 5th behind DELEGATOR at York he went left at the start and was the lowest drawn horse in the first 6 [that was also his UK and his seasonal debut] Next time in the G1 Golden Jubilee he raced on the clearly disadvantaged stands side , 2nd highest drawn from the first 12 home and LTO was 11th of 16 in the July Cup [again from a probable poorish draw , drawn 13 where 5 of the first 6 were drawn in single figures ] and was noted as running on after pulling hard at the start of the race. All those races were over 6f , a distance he has never won over. LIBRANNO is one of two 2yo's left . A double G2 winner and a course winner over the 6f here. 4th in the July Cup it could be argued that 6f is his optimum distance , his single win over the 7 was in a G3 on G/S at Newmarket agaisnt weaker opposition than he faces here. STRONG SUIT looks like starting Fav [ a negative] but has won at G2 and 3 Grade and once over 7f . Won the Jersey Stakes at RA fairly comfortably before being btn just under a length in the G1 Prix Du Jean Prat behind MUTUAL TRUST and ZOFFANY who had previosly ran FRANKEL to 3/4l in the St James's Palace. I'm of the opinion that this one might not appreciate the drop back to 7f from the 8f he ran over last time and he would appear to be better suited to longer [sire was a miler] Summary - This is a race where it semms to pay to look just behind the market leader and although STRONG SUIT would appear best on paper , the poor record of the Favourites encourages me to look elsewhere . I think LIBRANNO is better over shorter , at this level at least . DELEGATOR has a great chance on form imo but that 4lb could be costly and at the odds available DALGHAR could be the one to have on your side. No problem with distance , going , grade imo and only 8 opponents is another positive . Back to 7f and with luck in running the 10/1 on offer is worth an interest . Stake 10pts - DALGHAR @ 10/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Sat - Gt St Wilfred Stakes 6f Ripon [thanks to racecaller and RFO] ---------------------------------- 10/10 drawn from no higher than stall 11 [renumbered] 10/10 rated 100 or UNDER Record of 8yo+ in 10 runnings is 0-1-25 Record of Top Weight: 040000000720 (0-2-12) 10/10 had ran at least 3 times this season 10/10 ran in Cl3 or better LTO 10/10 had won over 6f 10/10 were retunred at 20/1 or shorter 9/10 had ran within the past 15 days 9/10 had ran at Newmarket, Goodwood or Haydock last time 8/10 had won that season , other 2 had been placed in the Stewards Cup 0/44 in the past 10 runnings carried headgear of some sort 0/71 in the past 10 runnings were beaten by no more than 6l LTO

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Sat - Gt St Wilfred Stakes 6f Ripon [thanks to racecaller and RFO] ---------------------------------- 10/10 drawn from no higher than stall 11 [renumbered] 10/10 rated 100 or UNDER Record of 8yo+ in 10 runnings is 0-1-25 Record of Top Weight: 040000000720 (0-2-12) 10/10 had ran at least 3 times this season 10/10 ran in Cl3 or better LTO 10/10 had won over 6f 10/10 were retunred at 20/1 or shorter 9/10 had ran within the past 15 days 9/10 had ran at Newmarket, Goodwood or Haydock last time 8/10 had won that season , other 2 had been placed in the Stewards Cup 0/44 in the past 10 runnings carried headgear of some sort 0/71 in the past 10 runnings were beaten by no more than 6l LTO

Starting with the obvious - 1 - The draw leaves 11 2 - Age removes TAJNEED and JOHANNES 3 - ENFERBY SPIRIT , ATLANTIC SPIRIT and GALLAHER , as it stands , will start over 20/1 4 - PARISIAN PYRAMID has nto ran for 84 days 5 - CONFESSIONAL wears eye shields and has not won this season or ran in the Stewards Cup 6 - ADDICTIVE DREAM ran at Ascot only 7 days ago. Of the 3 left , all ran in the Stewards Cup , and with 5 of the first 6 being drawn high [double figures ] lets take out those who were drawn in double figures but were unp - that takes out EVENS AND ODDS [14] and COLONEL MAK [21] Which leaves FASTHA who will not be disadvantaged by G/S ground. Stake 10pts FASTHA @ 10/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Race won by a horse drawn 17 and 2nd and 3rd from 20 and 19 !!! So much for the Low draw bias !! When i started using the Trends i avoided 5/6f races simply because of the effect the draw can have and how it can be turned upside-down if the ground conditions change . Ah how quickly we forget !!

[markmywords]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends An enforced quiet period right now but have to post this little stat - Curragh 4.25 today has been won by the outright Fav 10 times from the past 12 runnings and one of those defeats was a half length 2nd . Odds have ranged from 1/5 to 7/4 and AP O'Brien has won 6 from 12 [only once in past 5 however] Trouble is we currently have jt-favs in the shape of O'Briens DAVID LIVINGSTON and D Welds RIVIERA POET . Take your pick gents

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Also noticed in the race before [3.30] that JIM BOLGER has a recent record of 2,2,1,1,1,1. 2 of those 4 winners were making their racecourse debut , as is his runner today , CLEOFILA . The winning odds have not been too restrictive either , 9/2 , 4/1 , 6/1 and 15/8. CLEOFILA is currently available at 6/1 , worth an EW methinks :hope

[DLL]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Also noticed in the race before [3.30] that JIM BOLGER has a recent record of 2,2,1,1,1,1. 2 of those 4 winners were making their racecourse debut , as is his runner today , CLEOFILA . The winning odds have not been too restrictive either , 9/2 , 4/1 , 6/1 and 15/8. CLEOFILA is currently available at 6/1 , worth an EW methinks :hope

Nice spot, drifted to 7/1 after it ran loose.:clap Did a double with Riviera Poet (just fav atm) so here's hoping it wins.:hope

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Sorry you lost your double after the Fav flopped last week but at least we had a decent priced winner in CLEOFILA @ 7/1 ;) GOODWOOD 3.20 - CELEBRATION MILE [thanks to racecaller for stats] ------------------------------------- Age (Win-Place-Runners) 3yo: 4-4-22 4yo: 1-4-19 5yo: 4-1-12 6yo+: 1-2-11 3yos have taken 4 of the last 10 renewals, including the last 3. 3 of the 4 winners aged 3 had run in the St James Palace Stakes and all 4 winning 3yos had finished in first 5 in a major 2yo race (2 Dewhurst, 1 Middle Park & 1 Royal Lodge) 10/10 had won over 7f or further 9/10 came from the first 4 in the betting [ favs won 3 but 8 from 10 favs were returned under 5/4 so not a great record for the shorties] 8/10 had won a G2 or 3 race 7/10 finsihed in the first 3 LTO [2 others were unp in a G1] 7/10 had finished in the first 5 in a G1 [2 others had never ran in G1 company] GODOLPHIN have won 4/10 [last years winner was disq so technically 3/10] RIGGINS and SET THE TREND have never won at Group level EMERALD COMMANDER and PREMIO LOCO were unp LTO and neither in G1 company . BEACON LODGE was 6th in his only venture into G1 grade That leaves last years winner and probable Fav POETS VOICE and the sole 3yo runner DUBAWI GOLD. 2 things direct me towards the Hannon runner , 1 - POETS VOICE has not been out since March 26th and , 2 , the recent record of the 3yo's . Also the selection was given an 8 week break before running 4th in the Hungerford 14 days ago , here's hoping that will have brought him to peak fitness Stake 10pts - DUBAWI GOLD @ 9/2 Will update profit/loss after this :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Sorry you lost your double after the Fav flopped last week but at least we had a decent priced winner in CLEOFILA @ 7/1 ;) GOODWOOD 3.20 - CELEBRATION MILE [thanks to racecaller for stats] ------------------------------------- Age (Win-Place-Runners) 3yo: 4-4-22 4yo: 1-4-19 5yo: 4-1-12 6yo+: 1-2-11 3yos have taken 4 of the last 10 renewals, including the last 3. 3 of the 4 winners aged 3 had run in the St James Palace Stakes and all 4 winning 3yos had finished in first 5 in a major 2yo race (2 Dewhurst, 1 Middle Park & 1 Royal Lodge) 10/10 had won over 7f or further 9/10 came from the first 4 in the betting [ favs won 3 but 8 from 10 favs were returned under 5/4 so not a great record for the shorties] 8/10 had won a G2 or 3 race 7/10 finsihed in the first 3 LTO [2 others were unp in a G1] 7/10 had finished in the first 5 in a G1 [2 others had never ran in G1 company] GODOLPHIN have won 4/10 [last years winner was disq so technically 3/10] RIGGINS and SET THE TREND have never won at Group level EMERALD COMMANDER and PREMIO LOCO were unp LTO and neither in G1 company . BEACON LODGE was 6th in his only venture into G1 grade That leaves last years winner and probable Fav POETS VOICE and the sole 3yo runner DUBAWI GOLD. 2 things direct me towards the Hannon runner , 1 - POETS VOICE has not been out since March 26th and , 2 , the recent record of the 3yo's . Also the selection was given an 8 week break before running 4th in the Hungerford 14 days ago , here's hoping that will have brought him to peak fitness Stake 10pts - DUBAWI GOLD @ 9/2 Will update profit/loss after this :ok

1st :nana Returned at 3/1 Profit for Flat season 2011 = 54.50pts

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends well done that man, should have just followed you today !!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Profit for this Flat season = 54.50pts

[Needle Nose Ned]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Sorry you lost your double after the Fav flopped last week but at least we had a decent priced winner in CLEOFILA @ 7/1 ;) GOODWOOD 3.20 - CELEBRATION MILE [thanks to racecaller for stats] ------------------------------------- Age (Win-Place-Runners) 3yo: 4-4-22 4yo: 1-4-19 5yo: 4-1-12 6yo+: 1-2-11 3yos have taken 4 of the last 10 renewals, including the last 3. 3 of the 4 winners aged 3 had run in the St James Palace Stakes and all 4 winning 3yos had finished in first 5 in a major 2yo race (2 Dewhurst, 1 Middle Park & 1 Royal Lodge) 10/10 had won over 7f or further 9/10 came from the first 4 in the betting [ favs won 3 but 8 from 10 favs were returned under 5/4 so not a great record for the shorties] 8/10 had won a G2 or 3 race 7/10 finsihed in the first 3 LTO [2 others were unp in a G1] 7/10 had finished in the first 5 in a G1 [2 others had never ran in G1 company] GODOLPHIN have won 4/10 [last years winner was disq so technically 3/10] RIGGINS and SET THE TREND have never won at Group level EMERALD COMMANDER and PREMIO LOCO were unp LTO and neither in G1 company . BEACON LODGE was 6th in his only venture into G1 grade That leaves last years winner and probable Fav POETS VOICE and the sole 3yo runner DUBAWI GOLD. 2 things direct me towards the Hannon runner , 1 - POETS VOICE has not been out since March 26th and , 2 , the recent record of the 3yo's . Also the selection was given an 8 week break before running 4th in the Hungerford 14 days ago , here's hoping that will have brought him to peak fitness Stake 10pts - DUBAWI GOLD @ 9/2 Will update profit/loss after this :ok

Cracking work to figure that one out, look forward to seeing what you have for the weekend

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers mate , lets see what we can make of the SELECT STAKES , a G3 over 10f at Goodwood tomorrow. 10/10 were rated 104+ [9/10 were 106+] 10/10 had won at 9f+ [7/10 at 10f] 9/10 had won at least at LISTED level 9/10 were placed 1st - 4th , the other was 7th but only btn just over 3l in a G1. 9/10 were returned at single figure odds , only 3 favs and they were evens , 4/6 and 8/13. 6/10 were aged 4+ , inc 4 of the past 5. The ratings rule out MAC LOVE [102] , CELIDH HOUSE [102] , OPERA GAL [101] , MEASURING TIME [100] and SLUMBER [101]. KARAM ALBAARI has never won beyond Cl5 , although he has been competing in G1 - 3 grade in his other 3 career races. He has never tackled beyond 8f. That leaves 2 and the 3yo and probable fav , FRENCH NAVY , could be potentially a very good import from France . A 3 time winner over there , where he has won 3 of his 4 races inc a G3 on G/S . His one defeat was in a G1 btn 10l behind RODERIC O'CONNOR on heavy going. His one run in the UK was a win in a CL2 over 10f . NATIONALISM is a 4yo who has won at LISTED grade on G/S and significantly won over 9f at GOODWOOD which is a distinct advantage imo. Don't worry about the fact that N McKAY rides as he has won on him before [actually in that 9f race here] Given a 7 week rest before running into 6th in a G3 at York 22 days ago , that should have brought him back to near full fitness imo and i think the recent advantage of older runners against the 3yo's just gives him the edge over FRENCH NAVY esp at 3 times the odds. Stake 10pts NATIONALISM @ 6/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends FRENCH NAVY won the above , close but no cigar. The Cambridgeshire [according to racecaller] ------------------- AGE - No advantage imo WEIGHT - discount those over 9:06 DRAW - Those in the top 10 in the draw have a record of 1-12-100 so discount those . CLASS - 10/10 ran in Cl3+ LTO SIZE OF FIELD - 9/10 Won a race with over 14 runners HANDICAPS - 10/10 won no more than 4 DISTANCE - 8/10 had won over over 10f That leaves 5 , with 4 at very decent odds , so i suggest 2pts win DARE TO DANCE @ 9/1. 2pts win on each of the following CIRCUMVENT @ 28/1 [PP] , IDEOLOGY @ 50/1 [Lads] , CONSTANT CONTACT @ 50/1 [Lads] and NICE STYLE @ 40/1 [Lads]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Trends aplenty regarding the ARC so lets have a look at the one of the supporting races 12.10 - Prix Cadran - 2m4f G1 4yo+ [thanx to racecaller.com] ------------------------------------ AGE - It would appear that 8yo+ , not surprisingly, have a 10 year record of 0-4-12 which would take KASBAH BLISS out GENDER - Females have a record of 0-2-9 , the last female winner was back in '94 so the odds are against TERRE DU VENT , ELYAADI and MARIA ROYAL. CLASS - 10/10 had won at LISTED/GROUP level which takes out SILVER VALNY The last 8 winners had all ran within 30 days , TRES ROCK DANON and GENTOO have been off-track for 42 days. Perhaps the most informative stat is that of the past 7 French-trained winners no less than 6 had ran in the Prix Gladieteur last time out , finishing 2,1,1,3,2,1. The 3 left all ran in that race but only 1 was placed and that was the winner , LEY HUNTER . I would have preferred the going to be on the Softer side of Good , and the probable danger is stable mate BRIGANTIN who will find the going much more to his liking . Stake 7pts @ 7/2 LEY HUNTER Stake 3pts @ 4/1 BRIGANTIN

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Saturday - CHARLIE HALL CHASE [stats thanks to Racecaller] -------------------------------- The NH season starts here !! 9/10 were making their seasonal [Chase] debut 9/10 had won a Graded Chase worth 25k+ 9/10 had won over at least 3m 9/10 were returned in the first 4 in the market 8/10 were rated 151+ 5/10 had ran in a Chase at that years Aintree festival The current going is good , rain is predicted for Thursday but Fri/Sat look to be dry . I would suspect GOOD will be the official going come Saturday .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Saturday - CHARLIE HALL CHASE [stats thanks to Racecaller] -------------------------------- The NH season starts here !! 9/10 were making their seasonal [Chase] debut 9/10 had won a Graded Chase worth 25k+ 9/10 had won over at least 3m 9/10 were returned in the first 4 in the market 8/10 were rated 151+ 5/10 had ran in a Chase at that years Aintree festival The current going is good , rain is predicted for Thursday but Fri/Sat look to be dry . I would suspect GOOD will be the official going come Saturday .

Looking at todays winning times it would appear the ground is definately on the SOFT side of Good . 8 declared is actually quite good for this race and the first 2 to be dropped are the 250/1 and 66/1 shots ACRAI RUA and CHEIF DAN GEORGE. CHICAGO GREY has raced this season and has never won a Graded race . TIME FOR RUPERT has yet to win a Graded Chase [won 2 Novice events] and found one or two better in Graded Hurdles races . Unlucky when bursting a blood vessel last time out in the RSA and still has to prove himself in top company over Fences . On the plus side the stable is in winning form. POQUELIN has yet to win past 21f and Nicholls doesn't have the best record in recent season's. in this race. If this were Cheltenham i'd give him a better chance , Ruby Walsh on board is a definate plus. DIAMOND HARRY has won first time out in all his 5 racing season's , won two Graded Chase's [Hennessy] and the Ground and Distance suit . At first glance it looked as thought the stable is out of sorts with no wins from 7 runners in the past 14 days but on closer inspection the Faller and UR had seemed to be coming into contention when having their mishaps and three placings [ inc one at 25/1 ] indicate a winner is in the offing . NACARAT won this last season and has proven form in Grade , Ground and Distance. Will have to give at least 4lb's to every other runner but with no entry in the Paddy Power or Hennessy it would seem to me that this race is , once again , early season target. WEIRD AL has won 3 of his 4 career debuts and has won a Graded Chase over C/D. Disappointed after a winning debut at Carlisle last season as he went on to finish 42l off level weights behind DIAMOND HARRY in the Hennessy before breaking a blood vessel in the Gold Cup . Changed stables since then so it will be interesting to see how he goes as a change of scenery usually has a positive effect , at least in the first race or two. However he has a bit to find on the others in contention . Summary - Not very original but the record of DIAMOND HARRY first time out as well as his winning form in Graded races makes him a worthy selection @ 11/4 NACARAT could be the danger STAKE 10pts @ 11/4

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Didn't discover DIAMOND HARRY was a nr until i watched the race on Sky+ and couldn't see his name in the betting :eek JN WINE.COM CHAMPION CHASE - Down Royal 3.20 -------------------------------------------------- 9/10 had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase or been placed in a Grade 1 9/10 were returned 7/1 or shorter 8/10 had won over 3m+ 6/10 were making their seasonal debut over jumps , the other 4 had ran in the Munster National LTO 5/10 were UK Trained COOLCASHIN and MIDNIGHT CHASE have never won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase SIZING EUROPE has never won beyond 20f while THE NIGHTINGALE's winning limit has been 21f. That leaves us with 3 to consider and with the winning times very much on the slow side i thought it could pay to stick with those with winning form on soft/heavy ..and of course all 3 enjoy the mud. BOSTONS ANGEL would appear to usually need a run or two to bring him into winning contention as does RARE BOB . So the selection falls onto QUITO DE LA ROQUE , 4 times a G1 and 2 winner on SOFT- HEAVY ground over 24-25f. Won when fresh and can see no reason to be worried about the track. Stake 10pts @ 3/1