JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 3.10 LONGCHAMP G2 4yo+ 10f ----------------------------- 13/13 returned at odds up to 15/1 , 3 outright Favs . 12/13 had all won at Group level , the other had won a Listed race. 12/13 ran in Group company LTO. 11/13 were 4 yo's despite older horses representing approx 33% of the runners [ 38/97] the other 2 were 5yo's 10/13 had won over 10f , 3 others had won over 9f and 12f. An interesting stat is that 6 previous winners has last ran in the G3 PRIX EXBURY at St Cloud in March. Concentating on the 4yo age group removes half the field . LEY HUNTER has only won at Listed grade . Altough a winner at 11f , CELTIC CELEB has done most of his recent running over 12/16f therefore may not appreciate this step back on his seasonal debut. PLANTEUR has won his previous 2 debut's but has found a few too good in the G1's he contested last season which may hand the advantage to SILVER POND who was a fast finishing 3rd LTO 3 weeks ago at St Cloud in the PRIX EXBURY Stake 10pts @ 4.5 - Betfair Apologies for late post

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Not part of the Main Trends but the 4.15 at Leopardstown has been run 6 times and has only been won by 2 trainers . AP O'Brien won in '07 ' 09 ' 10 D WELD won in '05 ,'06 and '08 QUEST FOR PEACE and DIOGENES represents O'Brien while WELD has 2 in MUTASHAREF and OLYMPIAD . The first named of each appears to be the stable 1st choice

1st - QUEST FOR PEACE @ 13/8F

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

3.10 LONGCHAMP G2 4yo+ 10f ----------------------------- 13/13 returned at odds up to 15/1 , 3 outright Favs . 12/13 had all won at Group level , the other had won a Listed race. 12/13 ran in Group company LTO. 11/13 were 4 yo's despite older horses representing approx 33% of the runners [ 38/97] the other 2 were 5yo's 10/13 had won over 10f , 3 others had won over 9f and 12f. An interesting stat is that 6 previous winners has last ran in the G3 PRIX EXBURY at St Cloud in March. Concentating on the 4yo age group removes half the field . LEY HUNTER has only won at Listed grade . Altough a winner at 11f , CELTIC CELEB has done most of his recent running over 12/16f therefore may not appreciate this step back on his seasonal debut. PLANTEUR has won his previous 2 debut's but has found a few too good in the G1's he contested last season which may hand the advantage to SILVER POND who was a fast finishing 3rd LTO 3 weeks ago at St Cloud in the PRIX EXBURY Stake 10pts @ 4.5 - Betfair Apologies for late post

1st - PLANTEUR @ 7/5F , SILVER POND was 4th

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Thursday NEWMARKET - 4.45 - Earl of Sefton Stakes - 9f - 4yo+ ----------------------------------------------------------------- 12/14 finished in the first 4 last time out. 10/10 with a rating were rated 100+ [ 8 were 109+ ] 12/12 had won at either 8f , 9f or both 10/12 were aged 4 or 5 yo , however there have only been 13 runners in the past 11 runnings who were older than 5 and 2 have won while 4 were placed. 7/12 had won at Listed/Group level 7/8 who had a previous run at Newmarket [ either course] had been placed in the first 3 . Back on Weds night with the selection

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Starting with the ratings , take out those on 107 or under - BALDUCCI , JET AWAY , RANSOM NOTE . WORLD HERITAGE has not won at 8 or 9f. BULLET TRAIN was 5th LTO but was over 7l behind the winner in a Listed race , whereas ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL was also 5th but btn just over 3l in a G1 so the latter stays in the equation. FORTE DE MARMI has never ran in anything above Class 2 but his rating has went up 20lbs since his win FTO last season , has won 5/11 races so is lightly raced for a 5yo . Loves G/F ground and won FTO in the past 2 seasons. Nevertheless i would prefer proven ability at Group level although the stat of 7/12 isn't the strongest , but wouldn't be surprised if this one came in . Cumani's first runner of the season. Even though STEELE TANGO has won at Group 3 grade that was back in Oct '09 by a head . His record at Newmarket is quite good , if you consider placed runs , it is - 2 , 2 , 2 , 1 , 4 , 2 , 2 . Which makes me wonder if he is one of those horses who either finds one too good or just can't or want ot get his head in front , don't forget he only won by a Head here and his other 3 career wins have been by 2 heads and a sh-hd !!! Could do it but needs absolutely everything to fall right for him , great place bet though !!!! That leaves 2 to consider - POLYTECHNICIEN is an A FABRE trained 5yo who has won at 8 and 10f . A Group 3 winner he will certainly be fit after 2 runs this season BUT he does appear to prefer ground with a bit of give in it , 5 of 6 wins have came with Soft or Heavy in the title and the other was on Fibresand . ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL was a top class 2yo who won a Maiden and then a York G3 before running 2nd in the Racing Post Trophy . Won the Craven here last season before finishing 5th in the 2000 guineas . Not been seen since but if fit and has retained or improved has a major cahnce of taking this G3. Obviously a Course winner who has also won on G/F twice . R MOORE has a 29% strike-rate , 6 wins from 21 , for J DUNLOP . Summary - This , for me , is between ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL and FORTE DE MARMI . The ground will be against POLYTECHNICIEN despite the trainer having had a winner and a 3rd from 2 runners in this race . Will decide staking when odds are known .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Both selections have profiles which have produced recent winners , ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL taking a syep down a grade or 2 while FORTE DE MARMI takes an obvious step up in class . DUNLOP has had 6 runners this season and rpoduced one winner , a 1/5 fav in a Folkestone maiden , of the other 5 , 3 have started fav , 2 were 2nd fav but all were beaten and well beaten at that . With that in mind i'm making the Cumani runner the main selection with a saver on EP Stake 7pts @ 5/1 FORTE DE MARMI Stake 3pts @ 5/2 ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends FORTE DE MARMI - UNP ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL - 3rd @ 2/1f SATURDAY - NEWBURY - 2.05 - 12f - Group 3 [formerly the John Porter Stks] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 14/15 had been placed in a Group race , 8 had won at Group level . 14/15 had already won over 12f 13/15 were making their seasonal debuts 13/15 were aged 4-6y old 11/11 with a BHB rating were rated 108 or better . 5 of the last 14 last ran in the ST SIMON stakes over C/D the previous season. Start off with those rated under 108 - BRIDGE OF GOLD , HALICARNASSUS , CUMULUS NIMBUS and VERDANT . POET has never won over 10f . The remaining 3 have all won over 12f , are making their debuts , are 6yo's and have won Group races. Although the forecast going is G/F , todays times were all above standard , with the 3 races over 10f between 3.8 and 7.2 secs slower than standard. Light rain is forecast overnight so i don't think the G/F is correct . With that in mind i'm being swayed to CLOWANCE who won the ST SIMON last season. That race is a G3 over C/D and significantly all 3 of CLOWANCE's wins have been at Newbury with her only defeat being in this race last season [11th of 15 , eased when beaten . She has won and been 2nd on 2 of her seasonal debuts . ALLIED POWERS has won at G2 and G3 level . Was 12th in last years renewal and has usually needed a race before hitting form - 0 , 3 , 7 , 0 has been his seasonal debut figures . INDIAN DAYS has won G2 [ in Turkey ] . Similar to ALLIED POWERS this one also needs a race or 3 to start finding form . His best win beofre that G2 victory was in Class 2 grade so whether he can win this G3 at the first time of asking is debateable imo. Checking back this is what i wrote about CLOWANCE's chance's last season - 'With regards to the record of Fillies , it is 2 wins and a 3rd from 11 runners in the past 14 runnings . One of those 2 winners was a 20/1 shot . Unfortunately the RP does not give ratings past 1999 but up until then all the Fillies that had ran were rated under 108. The 2 winners had won at Listed level , along with 3 btn Fillies so it looks favourable for CLOWANCE on the sex angle :$ :lol With the current going described as GOOD and temperatures of 14/15 degrees with no rain forecast the ground could end up G/F . With that in mind i'm taking out CLOWANCE as she has ran only twice on GOOD ground and 4 times on Soft/Heavy . She has won on Good but in a time 6.7secs slower than the standard so i'm thinking it might be a bit lively out there for her on Saturday . ' Last years race had 15 runners [only 8 declared tomorrow ] and a blistering pace was set by AKMAAL , CLOWANCE tracked this one here's the RP quote about her run - Led 1f, stayed chasing leader to 3f out, ridden over 2f out, still right there over 1f out, eased when no chance final furlong (op 13-2) The race was 0.22 secs BELOW standard which signifies true G/F imo . I think things may fall into place a bit more favourably for her tomorrow . Stake 10pts @ 5/1 - CLOWANCE

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends DONCASTER - 6.15 - 8f - Listed - 4yo+ ---------------------------------------------- 14/15 were Southern trained , exception was M Johnston 14/15 were 4 or 5 y olds 12/15 were making their seasonal debuts 12/13 were rated 100+ 10/13 of the winners , when the race was run at Doncaster , had either won or been btn under 3l in Listed /Group company Both BALCARCE NOW and OFF CHANCE are rated 100 or under and are Northern trained . SET THE TREND is rated only 100 ST MORITZ is Northern trained That leaves THE RECTIFIER from the Epsom yard of Jim Boyle . This one looks sure to try and dictate the pace and has done it successfully in a Listed race at Windsor and was 2nd in a Listed at Sandown doing the same . G/F suits as does the going , however a negative is the stables apparent lack of form having only a 2nd and 3r from 10 runners so far , an even money shot amongst the unp . FAREER has won 3 times over 8f and all of those were on G/F ground Winner of a Listed event at York he usually tracks the leaders but has also won making all , so if T O'Shea feels that THE RECTIFIER is slowing the pace his mount is well capable of taking it up . Is race-fit after 4 runs in Dubai and Ed Dunlop has had 4 winners and 3 2nds from 14 runners in the past 14 days . Fitness and stable form make FAREER a confidant choice Stake 10pts @ 2/1 - Wm Hill

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

FORTE DE MARMI - UNP ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL - 3rd @ 2/1f SATURDAY - NEWBURY - 2.05 - 12f - Group 3 [formerly the John Porter Stks] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Stake 10pts @ 5/1 - CLOWANCE

CLOWANCE is now a non-runner :@ Which leaves me in a bit of a quandry as the other 2 have flaws and even the trainer of ALLIED POWERS has reservations about his charge today - Taken from Sporting Life - Michael Bell admits he would be surprised if Allied Powers manages to make a winning seasonal return in the Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes at Newbury. The six-year-old was well beaten when the Group Three contest, better known as the John Porter Stakes, was won by Harbinger 12 months ago, but he went on to win twice at Pattern level in France. Bell believes his charge always needs his first run of the year to get him going and as a result, he is not expecting too much on Saturday. "He always needs a run and the older he gets, he's likely to need the run even more," said Bell. "I'm not expecting anything other than a nice pipe opener to be honest, but he's in good form and he's healthy and well. "We would have liked to have seen some rain, but even if he'd had his optimum conditions, I don't think he would have been effective first time out. He's just one of those horses who always needs a run. "Maybe he'll surprise me, which would be nice." INDIAN DAYS was also mentioned in the same article , a bit more positively from the jockey - Indian Days was set some stiff tasks towards the back-end of last year, finishing down the field in Group Ones in Italy and Hong Kong. Tom Queally rides him on his return and he said in his column on www.racinguk.com: "The John Porter doesn't look particularly strong and I think Indian Days, who I ride for James Given, should have a chance. "He's fared well at the top level and I have a good record for James, so it's a ride I am naturally looking forward to." The Given stable has had 4 winners from 15 runners in the past 14 days so i , tentatively , give INDIAN DAYS the selection Stake 10pts @ 8/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

CLOWANCE is now a non-runner :@ Which leaves me in a bit of a quandry as the other 2 have flaws and even the trainer of ALLIED POWERS has reservations about his charge today - Taken from Sporting Life - Michael Bell admits he would be surprised if Allied Powers manages to make a winning seasonal return in the Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes at Newbury. The six-year-old was well beaten when the Group Three contest, better known as the John Porter Stakes, was won by Harbinger 12 months ago, but he went on to win twice at Pattern level in France. Bell believes his charge always needs his first run of the year to get him going and as a result, he is not expecting too much on Saturday. "He always needs a run and the older he gets, he's likely to need the run even more," said Bell. "I'm not expecting anything other than a nice pipe opener to be honest, but he's in good form and he's healthy and well. "We would have liked to have seen some rain, but even if he'd had his optimum conditions, I don't think he would have been effective first time out. He's just one of those horses who always needs a run. "Maybe he'll surprise me, which would be nice." INDIAN DAYS was also mentioned in the same article , a bit more positively from the jockey - Indian Days was set some stiff tasks towards the back-end of last year, finishing down the field in Group Ones in Italy and Hong Kong. Tom Queally rides him on his return and he said in his column on www.racinguk.com: "The John Porter doesn't look particularly strong and I think Indian Days, who I ride for James Given, should have a chance. "He's fared well at the top level and I have a good record for James, so it's a ride I am naturally looking forward to." The Given stable has had 4 winners from 15 runners in the past 14 days so i , tentatively , give INDIAN DAYS the selection Stake 10pts @ 8/1

1st - INDIAN DAYS :loon

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends nice one mate, looked last night and was going to follow you on clowance, didnt log back ointo today so left the race alone:( nice winner :clap

[Haystacks]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Very nice pick, jtw! I had backed Clowance (NR), but didn't have time to reevaluate and decided to let this race pass. Should have backed your selection blind!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends As far as the TRENDS are concerned thats the National Hunt selections over for another season and thankfully we ended it with an over all profit of 209.78 pts to the selected stakes :cheers The flat season has satrted well after INDIAN DAYS won the JohnPorter on saturday with the profit currently on 67.00 pts :ok Looking forward to Sandown over the weekend with the BET365 MILE and Gordon Richards Stakes on Saturday ;)

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

As far as the TRENDS are concerned thats the National Hunt selections over for another season and thankfully we ended it with an over all profit of 209.78 pts to the selected stakes :cheers The flat season has satrted well after INDIAN DAYS won the JohnPorter on saturday with the profit currently on 67.00 pts :ok Looking forward to Sandown over the weekend with the BET365 MILE and Gordon Richards Stakes on Saturday ;)

good to see another trends thread in profit, well done mate :ok we rarely do the same races but might clash a few times during the summer, good luck and hope you can show a profit come November :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers and good luck to you during the season Bowles :cheers Heres the Trends for Saturdays 2 races , will post selections by Friday evening SANDOWN 3.45 8f Group 2 4yo+ Bet >365 Mile ----------------------------------------------- 13/15 were returned 1st/2nd or 3rd Fav . 13/15 were aged 4 or 5 yo [6yo+ have accounted for 30 of the 125 runners in those 14 runnings . 13/13 won at least a Listed race , 10/13 had won at least Group 3 level 11/11 were rated 109 - 124 9/12 was one of the top 2 rated horses No mare/Filly has won in the last 13 runnings R HANNON [5] and M STOUTE [2] have won the last 6 runnings of this race. SANDOWN 4.20 - Group 3 10f 4yo+ Gordon Richards Stakes --------------------------------------------------------------- 14/15 were 4 or 5yo, there were very few older horses so possibly not the strongest stat. 13/15 were returned in the top 3 in the betting [clear + jt 1/2/3 favs] 13/14 were previous winners over 10f [ 2008 winner had been btn just under 1l in the only 10f race it had contested. 11/12 were rated 110+ The last 8/9 winners had won at Group 3 or better. [last years winner had been btn a hd in a G3] M STOUTE has won it 5 times in the past 15 runnings.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SANDOWN 3.45 8f Group 2 4yo+ Bet >365 Mile ----------------------------------------------- 13/15 were returned 1st/2nd or 3rd Fav . 13/15 were aged 4 or 5 yo [6yo+ have accounted for 30 of the 125 runners in those 14 runnings . 13/13 won at least a Listed race , 10/13 had won at least Group 3 level 11/11 were rated 109 - 124 9/12 was one of the top 2 rated horses No mare/Filly has won in the last 13 runnings , but there have only been 6 of that sex that have ran in the past 10 season with 3 placing. R HANNON [5] and M STOUTE [2] have won the last 6 runnings of this race. A disppointing turnout of only 5 runners and one of them is a 100/1 pacemaker !! Whether is due to the ground conditions , both at the course and on the training gallops or DICK TURPIN frightening the opposition off , it's frustrating to see such a numerically poor firld for a £45,000 race . I posted the winners place in the betting to show how the market usually isn't far away here but with only 4 in with a shout that stats redundant imo. First that we can safely dispose off [ unless things really go pear-shaped ] is the 87 rated pacemaker HIGHLAND KNIGHT. The next to be chalked-off is the runner he would appear to be making the pace for and thats his stable-mate , the 6yo , DREAM EATER . The age stat , his 4th best rating of 116 , never having won beyond 7f and his record of only one Stakes win [ Listed ] from 22 tries is more than enough to make me look elsewhere. That leaves the remaing 3 to be considered and i'm doubtful about the chance of the Fav on the probable G/F ground . DICK TURPIN has won at the first time of asking in his previous 2 debut runs and has been a winner at Group 1 , 2 and 3 grade . However his one win over 8f was on G/S ground over in France and he has several G1 entries in the coming months so wether he'll be 'tenderly handled' is open to question with bigger prizes ahead. CITYSCAPE is a lightly-raced 5yo who has won 3 times over 8f , one of those was a G3 . He has not won FTO in 3 seasons and his 3 career wins have been in Sep/Oct. MUSIC SHOW has won at G1 ,2 and 3 grade and won first time in both his debuts. Most significant is liking for G/F ground with a win on that and one on Firm. Fillies don't have too bad a record in this , despite not having won since '94 , they have been placed in 3 races since then from only 10 runners [ 5 of those were returned 16/1 + ] Channon's yard has had 7 winners in the past 14 days and this one has multiple G1 entries I think the race could well be run to suit MUSIC SHOW and the 9/2 on offer is well worth taking. STAKE 10pts @ 9/2 - MUSIC SHOW

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SANDOWN 4.20 - Group 3 10f 4yo+ Gordon Richards Stakes --------------------------------------------------------------- 14/15 were 4 or 5yo, there were very few older horses so possibly not the strongest stat. 13/15 were returned in the top 3 in the betting [clear + jt 1/2/3 favs] 13/14 were previous winners over 10f [ 2008 winner had been btn just under 1l in the only 10f race it had contested. 11/12 were rated 110+ The last 8/9 winners had won at Group 3 or better. [last years winner had been btn a hd in a G3] M STOUTE has won it 5 times in the past 15 runnings. The official rating seems a good place to start so that remove's BLACK SPIRIT , SHAMALI and NOURIYA from the equation. The 3 left are the top 3 in the market and although of those 3 VISCOUNT NELSON has not won over 10f he has finished a 1length 3rd in a 10f race . None of the 3 have won at Group level . AFSARE has been steadily progressing and won 3 of his 4 races at Class 4 , Class 2 and then Listed grade. Loves the G/F ground and won twice over 10f . This one has multiple G1 entries in the coming months and while Cumani rates him highly he has also stated that the dry spring has held him back slightly. The 7yo KINGS GAMBIT has the benefit of already having had a run this season when 2nd to ST MORITZ , who has since franked the form when winning the Listed Doncaster Mile last saturday. This one was a Group winner in his 3yo days in South Africa but since racing in the UK he has only one win in a Cl 3 at Ripon to his name. Five 2nds and a 3rd in his last 6 races gives me the impression he may not be totally reliable , so together with his age i'm bypassing this one even with his fitness advantage. This Group 3 represents a drop in class for ADMIRAL NELSON after his G1 expolits last season and a repeat of his 1 length 3rd in last season's Eclipse would be enough to win this race , imo. That race showed to me he will appreciate the Course / Distance /going . He has plenty of Group race entries this season and can use this as a springboard . Satke 10pts @ 9/4 - ADMIRAL NELSON

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Disappointing results yesterday , both needed the outings imo. Very impressed with DICK TURPIN , a few more G1's to be had with this one. KING GAMBIT made the fitness edge tell and recaptured some of his SA form . After the last couple of season's i should have been more wary of an O'BRIEN seasonal debutant ... lesson re-learned ;)

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Weds - ASCOT 3.55 - 2M Grp 3 4yo+ Sagaro Stks --------------------------------------------------- 13/15 had won in at least LISTED grade 11/15 had won over 16f , 3 had won at 14/15f and one was tackling 12f+ for the first time. 9/11 with a rating were rated 106+ AAIM TO PROSPER [92] , ASKAR TAU [104] , BUXTED [102] and THE BETCHWORTH KID [102] are all the preferred rating of 106. THEOLOGY has only won once and that was a Class 5 event but followed that with a sh-hd defeat in the G3 Queens Vase over C/D . Still lack of a win in a Stakes race is a negative and 4yo's don't have too good a record with only 2 wins since 1996 and one of those was a 2/5 fav . 3 left to consider - FREE AGENT represents the Hannon/Hughes partnership . Will be fit enough after a close 2nd in a Listed race behind THE BETCHWORTH KID at Nottingham 21 days ago. Although a winner over 14f , the 2 times he has tackled 16f have been disappointing with a 12l 4th [G2] and a one and half length 2nd in a Listed race in which he ' never a danger to the winner ' according to the RP . RAJIK comes over from C SWAN's yard and has won at 16f , although most of his wins have been over 12f [3 wins] and 14f [twice] . A winner in Listed company [twice] the forecast G/F ground will not inconvienience but the stable has only had 1 winner over NH rules from 7 runners in March/April and 0 from 4 on the Flat this season. AKMAL finished 5th btn over 7l in that Nottingham Listed race in which FREE AGENT was 2nd , but he normally takes a race or two to find the winners enclosure , in fact after running 7th in this last season he then went on to win a G2 at Sandown. He has won twice over 16f , won a G2 and G3 , won on G/F ground and J DUNLOP has had a couple of winners in the past 14 days . I woud have maybe preferred another run under his belt but he has the best form and this looks a fairly weak G3 imo. STAKE 10pts AKMAL @ 7/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

That leaves us with ASKAR TAU and AKMAL to consider . ASKAR TAU has won 2 G2'S , twice over the 16f and 3 times on G/F ground. One concern is that he has not ran for 185 days and never won on his 3 seasonal debuts. AKMAL has won a G3 over 16f , has won 4 times on ground considered G/F or Firm. He ran 11 days ago when well btn in the John Porter Stakes at Newbury but that was over an inadequate 12f and i get the impression that was a pipe-opener for this one . Not a lot to separate these 2 so i'll leave it to Tuesday evening before making a firm selection.

Taken from the Sporting Life - Akmal has a chance to further enhance his impressive racing record in the Moss Bros Sagaro Stakes at Ascot. With no Yeats around to maintain his domination of the Gold Cup, it is time for a new stayer to come through and the Group Three event provides the first real opportunity for one to do so. John Dunlop's chestnut won seven of his last nine starts last season including the Jockey Club Cup, but made little impression behind Harbinger on his return when dropped in trip for the John Porter Stakes at Newbury. Richard Hills told At The Races: "I'm looking forward to riding him. We thought it would be easier to give him a run at Newbury over a mile and a half and now we are stepping him back up to his best trip of two miles. "I said last year he was an improving horse and he showed that by winning seven races, and I always felt he could be a Cup horse, but he needs to keep progressing." Now those last 5/6 lines say to me that the Newbury race was merely a prep for this one . Stake 6pts AKMAL Stake 4pts ASKAR TAU Just a pity i was one year early with my prediction of this race !!!! This is my post for last years running of the SAGARO STAKES ....both were unplaced that day.. Of course ASKAR TAU came out and won from AKMAL in todays running !! THATS RACING ......................................................:cry.............;)

[Trotter]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

After the last couple of season's i should have been more wary of an O'BRIEN seasonal debutant ... lesson re-learned ;)

Noticed this on Nick Mordin's column this week.......... "Aidan O'Brien has won with just one of the thirty one pattern race runners that he's brought back off a break longer than seven months in March or April over the last fifteen years." :loon

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Will keep that in mind from now on Trotter :ok Here's the Trends for the weekend - Newmarket 2.30 Group 2 4yo+ Jockey Club Stakes ----------------------------------------------------- 15/15 were 4 or 5 year-olds [14 6yo+ have ran in the past 10 runnings from a total of 64 runners , around 23%] 14/15 had ran in Group company LTO [9 in G1's] 13/15 finished in the first 4 LTO 13/15 had won over 12f 11/15 were making their seasonal debut . 11/15 had won at Group level , a further 3 had won at Listed grade and had been placed in G1 or 2 , btn under 3l. 9 of the last 11 who had a British rating were rated 105+ [ 8 were 111+ ] Newmarket 3.45 Group 3 - 5f - 3yo+ Palace House Stakes ---------------------------------------------------------------- 12/12 rated 105+ 14/15 had won at Listed/Group class 9/15 were aged 4yo+ , but 3yo's have won 5 from only 31 runners in the past 15 season's.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Newmarket 2.30 Group 2 4yo+ Jockey Club Stakes ----------------------------------------------------- 15/15 were 4 or 5 year-olds [14 6yo+ have ran in the past 10 runnings from a total of 64 runners , around 23%] 14/15 had ran in Group company LTO [9 in G1's] 13/15 finished in the first 4 LTO 13/15 had won over 12f 11/15 were making their seasonal debut . 11/15 had won at Group level , a further 3 had won at Listed grade and had been placed in G1 or 2 , btn under 3l. 9 of the last 11 who had a British rating were rated 105+ [ 8 were 111+ ] NATIVE RULER is rated only 97. DANDINO has only won at Cl3 grade . INDIAN DAYS and CAMPANOLOGIST are both 6 year-olds. 2 left to consider - LAAHEB has won two Group 3's and a couple of Listed events . He has won 3 times over 12f , one of those at Newmarket . His record at Newmarket is quite good - unp [debut] , 1 , 2nd , 1 , 1 . Has won on G/F going twice and the VARIAN yard has had 2 winners in the past 14 days . This one should be fit enough after finishing 4TH , just over 5l , behind REWILDING in the G1 Sheema Classic at the Maydan World Cup meeting. He has won 3 and been placed 4 times from 8 runs in Stakes races. MONITOR CLOSELY has won a York G2 over 12f on G/F ground. Race fit after a 3rd in a Ripon Listed race in which the 2nd , KINGS GAMBIT, followed up with a win in the G3 Gordon Richards Stakes last week. M BELL has had 5 winners in the past 14 days . He did finish a well beaten 3rd [over 10l] in an ASCOT G3 back in Late Sep on G/S ground . Summary - LAAHEB is rated 9lb's superior to MONITOR CLOSELY and even allowing for the ground being a lot softer in that Ascot race i can't see a reversal happening tomorrow . His racefitness and obvious liking for Newmarket are major positives . Favs have taken 5 of the past 7 runnings , one other was 5/2 2nd fav . Stake 10pts @ 2/1 - Bet365

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Newmarket 3.45 Group 3 - 5f - 3yo+ Palace House Stakes ---------------------------------------------------------------- 12/12 rated 105+ 14/15 had won at Listed/Group class 13/15 had won over 5f 9/15 were aged 4yo+ , but 3yo's have won 5 from only 31 runners in the past 15 season's. Northern trained runners have a decent record with 2 wins and 3 2nd places from 24 runners . Borderlescott has been 2nd and 3rd in the last 2 runinngs while Dandy Nichols rarely goes home without a placed runner. SECRET ASSET , BREATHLESS KISS , LISSELAN DIVA , ARCTIC FEELING , EVENS AND ODDS , RAIN DELAYED , and TANGERINE TREES are all below the 105 rating mark. JOHNNY MUDBALL has never won over 5f. GROUP THERAPY has never won at Listed or above grade. There's no less than 6 left and i just can't decide which has the best chance therefore this race is a no-bet for me.

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 2000 Guineas --------------- 15/15 had won previously 14/15 had ran over 7 / 8f LTO 14/15 ran no more than 5 times 13/15 sires had a winning ave of between 8.7f - 11.3f [ 8.3 was the lowest ] 13/15 won LTO [ 15/15 in the first 3] 11/15 were making their seasonal debuts 11/11 had a Racing Post Record [RPR] of 111+ An interesting stat from racecaller.com is that 10/10 winners were by a sire who’d won a group 1 over 6F to 8F BROOX , DUBAWI GOLD , REROUTED and SLIM SHADY have ran more than 5 times Sires winning ave rules out - CASAMENTO [8.4F] , FURY [ 7.5F] , HAPPY TODAY [8.3F] , SAAMID [7.9F] SLIM SHADY has an RPR of 110 Now the controversial one , FRANKEL and RODERIC O'CONNOR are by GALILEO whose G1 wins were all over 12f . That leaves 3 and with FRANKEL being an odds-on shot it is prudent to have an interest in all 3 Stake 6pts @ 13/2 - bet365 - PATHFORK Stake 3pts @ 16/1 - various - NATIVE KHAN Stake 1pt @ 80/1 - VC BET - LOVING SPIRIT

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Sunday - 2.35 Gr3 Dahlia Stakes 9f 4yo+ -------------------------------------------- 7/7 had won over at least 8f. 6/7 were returned 1st or 2nd Fav 6/7 had won in at least LISTED company , the other had been 2nd twice in Listed Grade. 5/7 were rated 104+ 5/7 had won at Newmarket , one other had not run on the track . 4/7 were aged 5+ and that was despite only having 18 runners of the 48 runners in 7 season's CRYSTAL GAL , I'M A DREAMER , KINKY AFRO , SAPHIRA'S FIRE and SEA OF HEARTBREAK are below the 104 rating. The remaining 6 have all won at 8f+ and have all won in at least Listed grade. The one that just nose's in front of the rest is the only course winner FIELD DAY who after winning a a Listed race at Ascot went on to finish 2nd in a Deauville G3 on G/S and then went on to be 4th in the G1 Prix De L'Opera at the ARC meeting on soft ground . Hopefully fit and on ground she would appear to favour , she holds entries for a couple of G2 's later in the season. Stake 10pts FIELD DAY @ 11/2 - Wm HILL

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 1000 Guineas --------------- 14/15 were placed in the first 4 LTO 14/15 had won at least once in either of their 2 previous runs 14/15 had a sires ave of between 7.6f and 10.7f 12/15 had won at least Twice in their career 13/15 had won in Group company 13/15 had ran between 3 and 7 times 11/15 ran at Newbury or Newmarket LTO [ 4 from Fred Darling , 2 from the Rockfel ] When it comes to RPR the last 11 winners have been rated 103+ 11/11 had not finished out of the first 3 on more than one occasion 9/11 had not won over further than 7f as two year olds. Applying the stats leaves 4 runners , of which 2 finished 1st and 2nd in the Nell Gwyn which has not been the best trial in recent years so i'm going for LAUGHING LASHES and EMPOWERING . Stake 7.5pts LAUGHING LASHES @ 12/1 Stake 2.5pts EMPOWERING @ 33/1

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Weds - 3.00 YORK Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes 6f 3yo+ [ race upgraded to Grp 2 in 2003 ] -------------------------- 13/13 had won at least at LISTED level 13/13 rated 105 + 12/13 had won at 6f 12/13 had won at least 3 races in their career 10/13 were 4 or 5 y-olds 10/13 had ran that season 5 of the last had ran in either the ABERNANT or GLADNESS Stakes last time out. DRAW - When the going has been GOOD , G/F or FIRM the winners have been drawn - 4 [17 ran] , 3 [15] , 6 [12], 8 [14] , 5 [10] , 3 [10] , 6 [17] , 3 [16] , 1 [12] Even when the going is softer than Good the winning stalls have been 2,9,5,8. There definately seems to be a draw bias at York over 6f , surely those results can't all be down to where the pace is ??? There have only been five 3yo's that have ran in the past 12 seasons with a record of a win [13/2] and one 3rd [33/1] place , so i wouldn't discount thier chance in this. Only 14 runners this year , so the draw advantage might be worth keeping to single figure stalls Tried to post this earlier but lost the lot so here's the nitty-gritty Stake 6pts on GENKI @ 7/1 Stake 4pts on ROSE BLOSSOM @ 10/1

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 7.00 NAAS - 10f Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes - 3yo Fillies and Mares ------------------------------------------------------------------- 10/10 were returned in the top 4 of the market 9/10 had ran no longer than 17 days previous [ one was a sesaonal debutant] with 8 of those being placed 1st , 2nd or 3rd LTO 9/10 were 3y-olds Since 2004 when the race was upgraded to group status all 7 winners had won at least once previously. J OXX has won 4 and J BOLGER 3 runnings Some strong stats here , with the 3y-old stat very strong imo . Apart from 2001 there has been about the same number of 3 y-old entries as there were 4y-old+ , 43 and 38 respectively but there has been only 1 older winner. Will come back later with selection . 2.40 FRI - YORKSHIRE CUP 15f Group 2 ----------------------------------------------- 14/15 had won at least 3 times in their career 15/15 had won at least at 12f 14/15 were 9/1 or under 14/15 were aged 4 - 7y-olds 14/15 were Southern trained 12/15 won at Listed level and above , 10 were in GROUP campany 14/15 had finished 1st -4th LTO 13/14 were rated 109 + 8/15 had ran that season Again will be back with selection

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Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

7.00 NAAS - 10f Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes - 3yo Fillies and Mares ------------------------------------------------------------------- 10/10 were returned in the top 4 of the market 9/10 had ran no longer than 17 days previous [ one was a sesaonal debutant] with 8 of those being placed 1st , 2nd or 3rd LTO 9/10 were 3y-olds Since 2004 when the race was upgraded to group status all 7 winners had won at least once previously. J OXX has won 4 and J BOLGER 3 runnings Some strong stats here , with the 3y-old stat very strong imo . Apart from 2001 there has been about the same number of 3 y-old entries as there were 4y-old+ , 43 and 38 respectively but there has been only 1 older winner. Will come back later with selection .

Such has been the strength of the market in previous runnings it would seem prudent to concentrate on the top 4 . Which leaves AOIFE ALAINN , BANIMPIRE , ASHEERAH and MESARIYA. Of those 4 AOIFE ALAINN is a 4yo and MESARIYA hasn't ran for 45 days. That gives us the Jim Bolger runner , BANIMPIRE , who has won at G3 grade and also a 10f winner and ASHEERAH who has 5lb to find on BANIMPIRE and is worth a small saver Stake 8pts @ 7/2 BANIMPIRE Stake 2pts @ 8/1 ASHEERAH