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jtw1

JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

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Apologies to BOWLES if he thinks i'm trying to pinch his thread but i've always been interested in historical trends in races and his new thread has encouraged me to have a look at this myself . The first race to look at is the 3.15 at LINGFIELD on Weds.

YEARWINNERAGEWGTSPTRAINERJOCKEYRPR
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=397174&r_date=2006-01-04',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2006 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=597049',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Principal Witness (14) 58-910/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=17934",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Tom Dascombe:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=8563",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Steve Drowne66
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=363120&r_date=2005-01-05',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2005 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=571368',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Nawow (6) 59-36/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=375",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>P D Cundell:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=13317",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Dane O'Neill77
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=343415&r_date=2004-01-07',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2004 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=578812',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Maystock (8) 49-08/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=12368",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>G A Butler:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=81447",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Liam Treadwell83
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=326087&r_date=2003-01-08',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2003 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=516912',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Altay (8) 69-107/2F:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=8010",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>R A Fahey:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=76957",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Paul Hanagan83
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=311136&r_date=2002-01-09',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2002 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=535005',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Amigo (2) 48-511/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=436",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>P Mitchell:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=2496",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Jimmy Quinn61
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=310219&r_date=2002-01-09',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2002 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=542454',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Tranquil Moon (10) 48-85/2F:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=680",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>D W P Arbuthnot:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=9945",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>J D Smith66
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=295073&r_date=2001-01-10',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2001 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=501271',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Lost Spirit (6) 58-110/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=2576",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>P W Hiatt:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=78224",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>George Baker55
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=275733&r_date=2000-01-12',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2000 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=476009',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Rayik (6) 59-58/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=7833",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>G L Moore:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=9128",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Gyles Parkin74
We can see right away that the age of previous winners is interesting with Four 5y-os , Three 4y-os and One 6y-o winning since 2000. Also the odds of the previous winners narrow the gap to be studied with the range being from Fav up to 11/1. A look at when each winner last ran showed that all ran their previous race to this in less than 41 days . SELECTION - ARIODANTE + SOVEREIGN SPIRIT - Both 5y-o , 5/1 and 4/1 in the RP f'cast and have ran L.T.O in under 41 days. [if LIBERTY RUN starts at odds under the 12/1 as forecasted then it should also be considered] 2nd race to look at is the 3.45 at LINGFIELD.
YEARWINNERAGEWGTSPTRAINERJOCKEYRPR
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=397170&r_date=2006-01-04',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2006 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=557317',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Sir Haydn (14) 69-39/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=35",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>J R Jenkins:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=12780",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Eddie Ahern82
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=363115&r_date=2005-01-05',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2005 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=580717',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Zalkani (8) 59-212/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=14365",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>B G Powell:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=76957",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Paul Hanagan80
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=343412&r_date=2004-01-07',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2004 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=543986',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Gold Guest (10) 59-76/1C:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=3846",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>P D Evans:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=80421",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Stephen Donohoe71
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=326943&r_date=2003-01-08',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2003 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=516078',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Shaman (4) 69-713/2:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=7833",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>G L Moore:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=13700",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Shane Kelly62
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=326090&r_date=2003-01-08',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2003 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=532541',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Figura (11) 59-67/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=5321",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>R Ingram:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=13699",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>N Callan63
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=311135&r_date=2002-01-09',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2002 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=532772',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Calling Dot Com (13) 49-1211/4F:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=8867",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>N P Littmoden:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=8417",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>T G McLaughlin74
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=310214&r_date=2002-01-09',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2002 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=476951',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Sammy's Shuffle (3) 79-97/2F:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=4783",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Jamie Poulton:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=1131",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Simon Whitworth66
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=262101&r_date=1999-01-07',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>1999 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=68463',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Confronter (6) 108-134/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=870",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>S Dow:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=13008",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Paul Doe61
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=261376&r_date=1999-01-07',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>1999 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=449986',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Star Turn (8) 58-115/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=7325",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>R M Flower:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=13317",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Dane O'Neill56
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=246965&r_date=1998-01-08',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>1998 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=450228',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Bon Guest (1) 49-512/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=704",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Miss B Sanders:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=972",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>A Clark59
Agian the age range is interesting with 8 out of 10 winners [race split in 2002 +1999 ] aged 4-6 .[however this only removes one horse] The weight range shows that no horse carrying less than 8-11 has won [ race was 0-60 up to 2 years ago ] Apart from the 1998 winner [first outing since Oct] ALL the previous winners have raced within 21 days of this race. The winning odds have been from Fav - 12/1 SELECTION - ALEXIAN nearly fits all the bills , only carrying 8-9, but the age[4 y-o], odds [6/1 RP f'cast] and days since L.T.O [16] all fall into place. I'm putting the emphasis on the days between races in this race so the top 3 of SONNY PARKIN [26 days],BLACKTOFT [29]+ BERKHAMSTEAD [28]are narrowly overlooked.

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Re: Trends Cheers BOWLES a promising start 3.15 LING - ARIODANTE 2nd @ 8/1 , SOVEREIGN SPIRIT UNP. 3.45 LING - ALEXIAN Non-Run , BLACKTOFT 1st @ 5/2F , BERKHAMSTEAD 2nd @7/2 , SONNY PARKIN UNP. One of slight interest on THURSDAY , 3.50 WOLVES

YEARWINNERAGEWGTSPTRAINERJOCKEYRPR
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=397186&r_date=2006-01-05',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2006 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=637133',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Reveur (7) 39-2100/30:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=7001",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>M Mullineaux:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=13689",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Jamie Spencer62
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=366991&r_date=2005-01-06',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2005 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=603066',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Gibraltar Bay (2) 39-06/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=7525",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>T G Mills:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=14522",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Robert Winston72
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=363132&r_date=2005-01-06',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2005 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=598928',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Baileys Honour (3) 39-05/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=8776",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>A G Newcombe:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=1131",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Simon Whitworth62
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=343429&r_date=2004-01-08',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2004 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=579190',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Yankeedoodledandy (4) 37-95/2F:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=874",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>P C Haslam:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=82122",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Duran Fentiman63
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=310206&r_date=2002-01-07',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2002 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=548622',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Vandenberghe (9) 38-1114/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=8078",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Mrs Merrita Jones:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=76973",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Chris Catlin61
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=233816&r_date=1997-01-11',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>1997 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=448339',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Millroy (7) 39-73/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=5",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>P A Kelleway:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=1059",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>M Wigham89
The stat to consider here is the fact that top weights have won 3 and 1 jt top weight won 4 out of 5 runnings. Also 4 out of the 5 had ran less than 26 days previously [ the other was last out in AUG ]. Out of the top 3 in this race the 2nd+3rd top weights have not raced since 49 days and 100 days respectively so have a look at the top weight KING OF THE BEERS . Its making it's handicap debut in this one after racing only 8 days ago and also wears blinkers for the first time. Trainer R A HARRIS sent out a couple of winners between Xmas and New Year [one of which was a 40/1 shot]. Worth an E-W bet ??

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Re: Trends Hi HAITCH , right now i'm looking at every race to see if anything jumps out at me. I believe in the long run it's Non-Handicaps that will probobly show up better when it comes to historical trends e.g Nov Hurdles /Chases or Maidens /stakes races on the flat. KING OF THE BEERS finished nearer last than first !! Theres two for FRIDAY and they look like the perfect example of what i was talking about above. MUSSLEBURGH - 12:40

2006 Estepona 511-515/8J Howard JohnsonG Lee105
2005 Millagros 510-1213/8FI SempleJim Crowley87
2005 Goblin 410-72/1FD E CantillonS E Durack83
2004 Outside Investor 410-59/1Ferdy MurphyD N Russell85
2004 Kingkohler 511-07/4FK A MorganP Robson104
2001 Route Sixty Six 511-016/1Jedd O´KeeffeA S Smith90
2001 Shrivar 410-78/11FMrs M ReveleyP Niven112
2000 Minivet 511-121/7FT D EasterbyL Wyer118
1999 Finewood 511-121/3FJ M JeffersonL Wyer116
1999 Running Man 511-510/11FP R WebberJ Osborne123
The last 10 runnings of this 2m Nov Hurdle have seen NO winners aged 6+ 4y-o's have won 3 and 5y-o's have won 7. The FAVS have a very good record here too with 7 out of 10 winning albeit are some very short odds. Out of the 3 beaten favs 2 were odds on , one was 2nd with no real excuses ,the other was well clear when falling at the 2nd last. Only one previous winner was making their debut over hurdles the rest all had at least one outing. PURPLE MOON is a 4-yo carrying 10.7 and making his hurdling debut. GRINGO is a 5y-o carrying 11.12 and a C/D winner LTO. The RACING POST F/cast has PURPLE MOON at 8/11 fav and GRINGO at 11/8. SELECTION - GRINGO has the experience and the age advantage. MUSS - 1.10
2006 Magnificent Seven 711-5100/30J Howard JohnsonG Lee100
2005 Harrovian 811-59/4Miss P RobsonRichard McGrath113
2004 Boy's Hurrah 811-311/2J Howard JohnsonG Lee110
Now i know that 3 runnings of this 3m Nov Chase is not really enough to judge anything on with great certainty but a few interesting facts are worth stating. 1- 12 horses aged 9+ have ran with NONE being placed 2- No mare has placed. 3- Winning RPR has been between above 100 The age factor wipes out half the 6 runner field inc the RP fav in CORBIE LYNN , a 10y-old and a mare to boot. That leaves ROMANOV RAMBLER [RPR = 77 and 20/1 in the f/cast] TWO TONYS SHAM [ RPR = 94 and 16/1 ] and finally the selection RUSSIAN SKY [ RPR = 120 AND 13/8 2nd Fav] Ain't going to get rich with these two but it would nice to get the system off the ground :hope

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Re: Trends Very interesting thread jtw1. Your case for your second selection for tomorrow (Russian Sky) is very compelling and I hope it romps home for you. As for your first (Gringo)... I hope it loses because I put a few quid on Purple Moon just prior to reading your analysis! :lol

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Re: Trends Tough luck today jtw1. It does my head in when someone clearly puts in a lot of time and effort and doesn't get rewarded. I hope you stick with this as it is fascinating stuff. At the very least, it may well produce some decent LAY bet opportunities.

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Re: Trends Thanks for the support TURKEYLURKEY:clap , Typical of me to pick the wrong one in what looked like a 2 horse race:( and RUSSIAN SKY tried to lead all the way but faded 2 out , significantly 3 fences down the back straight at MUSS were missed out but thats no excuse . I hope anyone following this thread will bear with me as i attempt to sort out the wheat from the chaff :lol Will be back later after i've checked out Saturdays racing , hope BOWLES can find a good one in his thread.

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Re: Trends Cheers BillyHills lets hope at least we can find one winner from these. There has been 5 runnings of the 2.50 at HAYDOCK

YEARWINNERAGEWGTSPTRAINERJOCKEYRPR
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=397270&r_date=2006-01-07',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2006 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=636616',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Cloudy Lane 611-64/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=349",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>D McCain:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=13499",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Jason Maguire107
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=343493&r_date=2004-01-10',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2004 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=587322',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Le Royal 510-134/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=108",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Mrs M Reveley:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=13869",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Fergus King117
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=343132&r_date=2003-12-29',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2003 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=558490',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Silver Samuel 610-1250/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=6010",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>S A Brookshaw:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=13499",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Jason Maguire99
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=325717&r_date=2002-12-28',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2002 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=555884',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Simply Supreme 511-92/5F:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=4788",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Mrs S J Smith:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=75930",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Dominic Elsworth133
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=309809&r_date=2001-12-28',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2001 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=530357',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Golden Rambler 510-94/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=397",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Jonjo O´Neill:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=14595",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>L Cooper115
and as you can see the winners have been aged either 5 or 6 y-olds Apart from Silver Samuels shock win at 50/1 the market usually holds the key with the other 4 winners being priced 4/1 or under. Also all 5 winners had run no more than 3 times in that season. The fav MARODIMA is only 4y-old and has ran 4 times . The 2nd fav ANGLICISME is 5y-o and has ran 3 times . The next 3 in the betting are all 7 y-olds. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TOLWORTH HURDLE SANDOWN 2.40 -------------------------------------
YEARWINNERAGEWGTSPTRAINERJOCKEYRPR
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=397277&r_date=2006-01-07',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2006 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=633011',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Noland 511-76/4F:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=5767",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>P F Nicholls:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=78581",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Christian Williams136
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=363216&r_date=2005-01-08',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2005 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=600488',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Marcel 511-73/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=243",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>M C Pipe:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=11415",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Timmy Murphy144
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=343231&r_date=2004-01-03',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2004 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=550713',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Lingo 511-75/4F:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=397",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Jonjo O´Neill:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=14595",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>L Cooper150
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=327225&r_date=2003-01-18',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2003 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=555939',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Thisthatandtother 711-711/4:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=5767",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>P F Nicholls:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=11415",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Timmy Murphy148
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=311108&r_date=2002-01-12',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2002 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=553002',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Miros 511-77/2:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=397",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Jonjo O´Neill:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=2796",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>N Williamson151
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=295157&r_date=2001-01-13',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2001 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=538213',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Iznogoud 511-711/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=243",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>M C Pipe:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=9482",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>A P McCoy144
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=275663&r_date=2000-01-08',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2000 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=504913',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Monsignor 611-711/8F:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=11759",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>M Pitman:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=2796",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>N Williamson154
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=261469&r_date=1999-01-09',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>1999 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=458156',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Behrajan 410-99/2:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=13003",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>H D Daly:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=1186",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>R Dunwoody138
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=247051&r_date=1998-01-10',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>1998 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=108915',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>French Holly 711-74/1:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=5039",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Ferdy Murphy:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=11933",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Andrew Thornton154
AGE - 5 Y-OLDS seem to have the advantage here with 5 wins from 9 runnings the others being 4,6 +7. Betting anything over 9/2 is very risky ,in fact upon closer inspection the 9 runnings shown here have went to the 1st or 2nd favs 8 out of 9 times. All previous winners had won in their season and apart from MARCEL[9] none had raced more the 4 times in theat season. P NICHOLS has a very good record in this event having won it twice and been runner-up 3 times from 6 attempts. That unplaced effort was from a seasonal debutant.His other 5 runners had ran between 1-3 times and had won at least once. Apart from being a 6y-old , P.NICHOLS runner SILVERBURN must be respected as it fits into all other criteria. The danger should be the 5y-old Irish raider PIERCE ROCK but its the trainerform that sways it for me. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- SANDOWN 3.10 and one stat stands out over anything else and thats the record of the PIPE stable . Even with Martin retired ,son DAVID is still finding the winners and so it will be interseting to see what he can do here. In the last 5 runnings of this event the PIPES have had the last 2 winners at odds of 25/1 and 14/1 respectively.Also a 2nd at 50/1 and horses just out of the frame in 5th and 6th places [25/1 + 14/1] show that an e.w or place bet on all of theirs has proved profitable . They have 2 out tomorrow - LUNAR CRYSTAL 20/1 and NYBORG MYDRICK 14/1. Keep an eye out on both :tongue2

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Re: Trends Maybe a bit fortunate with MY TURN NOW crumbling at the last but we've got a winner !!!!!!! SILVERBURN 1ST @ 5/1 :nana , PERCE ROCK 2ND @ 2/1 Hope My Turn Now is just winded :hope

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Re: Trends ANGLICLISME UNP :\ PIPE'S 2 UNPLACED , probobly buried waist deep in the Sandown mud :lol Any way nice to get a winner ,hope it helped someone , it did me :beer

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Re: Trends MUSS - 1.10

:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=397249&r_date=2006-01-06',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2006 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=598635',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Magnificent Seven 711-5100/30:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=1546",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>J Howard Johnson:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=10590",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>G Lee100
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=363195&r_date=2005-01-07',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2005 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=507179',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Harrovian 811-59/4:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=11289",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Miss P Robson:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=6075",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Richard McGrath113
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=343452&r_date=2004-01-07',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2004 :OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=544885',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Boy's Hurrah 811-311/2:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=1546",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>J Howard Johnson:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=10590",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>G Lee110
Now i know that 3 runnings of this 3m Nov Chase is not really enough to judge anything on with great certainty but a few interesting facts are worth stating. 1- 12 horses aged 9+ have ran with NONE being placed 2- No mare has placed. 3- Winning RPR has been between above 100 The age factor wipes out half the 6 runner field inc the RP fav in CORBIE LYNN , a 10y-old and a mare to boot. That leaves ROMANOV RAMBLER [RPR = 77 and 20/1 in the f/cast] TWO TONYS SHAM [ RPR = 94 and 16/1 ] and finally the selection RUSSIAN SKY [ RPR = 120 AND 13/8 2nd Fav] Ain't going to get rich with these two but it would nice to get the system off the ground :hope With regards to this race (trends) Sports Express shud be backed in each of its next 3 races (Class 4 only)

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Re: Trends Sorry this is a bit late but had internet connection probs last night ,anyway here's what to look out for today Trends wise. PLUMPTON 12:40 [nov hurd]

2006 Temoin 611-4EvensFN J HendersonMick Fitzgerald108
2006 Alright Now M'Lad 611-433/1Jonjo O´NeillA P McCoy117
2005 Priors Dale 511-49/2Miss E C LavelleBarry Fenton120
2004 Bobsleigh 511-210/11FMrs A J PerrettLeighton Aspell99
2003 Dancing Bay 611-44/6FN J HendersonMick Fitzgerald127
2002 Hawadeth 711-114/1V R A DartnallJ Culloty119
2001 Maximus 510-135/1D M GrissellBenjamin Hitchcott116
2001 Polish Baron 410-134/7FP J HobbsRichard Johnson107
2000 Male-Ana-Mou 710-115/4JJamie PoultonColin Bolger106
Favs have been successful 5 times with only one winner being double figures in the last 9 runnings. Each winner had an RPR of 100 [except 2004 - 99] Marc Of Brilliance is one of only 4 with an RPR figure and is the Forecasted Fav. 4y-olds don't have a great record in this but the one winner out of 13 4-yo entries over the years to have been successful was a short priced fav. PLUMPTON 1:10 [nov chase]
2006 Le Volfoni 511-310/11FP F NichollsJoe Tizzard140
2005 Kadount 711-26/4FA KingRobert Thornton147
2004 Non So 611-72/5FN J HendersonMick Fitzgerald133
2000 Mr Markham 811-413/8FJ T GiffordPhilip Hide130
Only 4 previous runnings of this Novice Chase but interestingly ALL have been won by the FAV , each trained by one of the top trainers and had previous chasing experience So ,with respect to the other entries this should be a match between BUENA VISTA AND PHAR BLEU and with the former not having jumped a fence in public yet the trend points to D.PIPE winner in BUENA VISTA. PLEASE NOTE I HAVE JUST FOUND OUT THAT BUENA VISTA IS A NON-RUNNER SO THE RACE SHOULD FALL TO PHAR BLEU [probobly at about 1/5 :eek ] SOUTHWELL 12:50 Not so much a trend here just a word of warning that NO FAV has won in the last 8 runnings of this with the winning odds ranging from 7/4 up to 14/1. 1:50 - Again just a warning to FAV backers that NO MARE/FILLY has won this race in 7 runnings, all won by GELDINGS The odds have ranged from 2 favs,1 jt fav and the others no greater than 11/2. So it could pay to have an interest on the forecasted 2nd Fav SKIP OF COLOUR with the Fav and 3RD fav being of the Female persuasion !! Nothing ,i admit , too strong at Southwell but just enough to be wary of.

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Re: Trends PHAR BLEU 1ST 2/7 :clap MARC OF BRILLIANCE 3RD 5/4 F:( FAV in the 12:50 at SOUTHWELL UNP :clap Just goes to show it's sometimes how you interpret the results that affect the choices we make , for instance in the 12:40 plumpton should i have stated that 4y-olds have a poor record in this with only 1 win out of 13 entries therefore any 4y-old should be discounted ? Which would have got rid of MARC OF BRILLIANCE and left us with only two with RPR ratings over the 100 mark SANTANDO [dead-heat winner ] and BARTERCARD who had not run for 210 days !! Food for thought ;)

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Re: Trends MONDAY -------- TAUNTON 1:50

2006 Royal Hector 611-127/1Jonjo O´NeillA P McCoy130
2005 Waterspray 711-911/4J L SpearingTony Evans121
2003 Power Unit 810-1233/1Mrs D A HamerC Rafter105
2002 Wink And Whisper 610-77/1A KingRobert Thornton104
2001 Odagh Odyssey 711-66/1Miss E C LavelleBarry Fenton120
2000 Sunrise Special 710-912/1P R RodfordS Burrough108
1999 Hightown Cavalier 810-54/1R J HodgesN Williamson78
1998 Primitive Streak 710-014/1R J HodgesT Dascombe98
1997 Olliver Duckett 810-614/1C L PophamG Tormey88
A 2m3f Nov H'cap Chase where no FAV in 9 runnings has won and this coupled with the fact that 5 5y-olds have ran over the years and have failed to win makes taking on the Fav SPIDAM a possibility. D.PIPE runs the 2nd Fav MARCEL and this is the selection. TAUNTON 2:20
2006 Kalmini 410-54/1Miss Sheena WestJamie Goldstein105
2005 Penzance 410-76/1A KingRobert Thornton113
2003 Shalako 511-112/1FP J HobbsRichard Johnson122
2002 Samon 511-46/4M C PipeA P McCoy145
2001 Cupboard Lover 511-44/1N J HendersonMick Fitzgerald120
2000 Seebald 511-41/3FM C PipeA P McCoy123
What we have to consider here is the fact that until 2003 only 3 4y-olds had ran in the 4 runnings , since than 13 have been entered and have dominated the placings. The winning odds range from Fav - 6/1 P.HOBBS has ran 5 horses in this event over the years and those that have been in single figures , odds wise, have been placed 3rd,1st and 2nd. PREDATUER , trained by P NICHOLS will start fav and be hard to beat but if your looking for an e-way or place bet then P.HOBB'S BON VIVEUR could fit the bill. WOLVES 3:10 + 5:10
2006 Critic (5) 39-01/2FM L W BellJamie Spencer74
2005 Fire At Will (3) 39-0100/1A W CarrollShane Kelly56
2005 Twin Peaks (11) 39-012/1D R LoderEddie Ahern78
2004 Honest Injun (4) 39-04/9FB W HillsMartin Dwyer77
2003 Milk And Sultana (5) 38-96/1W M BrisbourneK Dalgleish73
1997 Flamboyance (1) 38-911/2J R FanshaweD Harrison84
The last 4 runnings of this 7f Maiden has fell to colts/geldings of which 3 were trained by a top flat trainer DIV 1 - DISTANT SUN + NOT TOO TAXING fit the bill DIV 2 - Last years winning trainer ,M.BELL runs one of only 3 colts/geldings entered and his ARCH OF TITUS is the selection

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Re: Trends

A 2m3f Nov H'cap Chase where no FAV in 9 runnings has won and this coupled with the fact that 5 5y-olds have ran over the years and have failed to win makes taking on the Fav SPIDAM a possibility.
Cheers for that jtw. I already had my own reasons for laying Spidam and that has just added to my case to oppose it.

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Re: Trends Hi Folks; Re the 13.20 and the 14.20 as highlighted - C Mann runs one in each, novice hurdle; record to date from 9/11/06 = L W W W W L 3(100/1) L 2 L L W W L L - all wins 6K value and above.

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Re: Trends

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtw1 viewpost.gif A 2m3f Nov H'cap Chase where no FAV in 9 runnings has won and this coupled with the fact that 5 5y-olds have ran over the years and have failed to win makes taking on the Fav SPIDAM a possibility.
Cheers for that jtw. I already had my own reasons for laying Spidam and that has just added to my case to oppose it.
Great analysis guys. I know what your saying regarding the Fav's in this race and its a good price for layers anyway but word of warning:
All five favourites won in ‘win only’ events at Taunton last year, though four of the five horses in question were sent off as hot market leaders at 2/11—2/9—1/2—8/15. The other winner was returned at 5/4.
taken from Malcolm Boyle.

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Re: Trends MARCEL 1ST @ 7/2 [albeit by a nk :dude ] PREDATEUR 1ST @ 4/5 F , BON VIVEUR UNP but as it opened up at 20/1 to eventually go off at 16/1 and i did say that HOBB'S placed in this race had all been single figures it should not have come into consideration. NOT TOO TAXING 2ND @10/3 + DISTANT SUN 3RD @ 9/2 ARCH OF TITUS 2ND @ 15/8 Both Div of the WOLVES race won by females !! Maybe need to take heed when looking at this particular aspect of things :\

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Re: Trends Yeah, this is definitely showing a lot of promise jtw. To pick a couple of winners and a couple of 2nd places out of 4 bets is proof of that. Marcel may have only won by a neck but that's racing. The point is that there were plenty of reasons to oppose Spidam... not least of all it's final SP! :) You highlighted a couple and were proven right.

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Re: Trends WEDS ----- LINGFIELD 1:30 The last 10 runnings of this Handicap race have seen only 1 clear Fav and 1 jt Fav win, although the winning odds have ranged from Fav up to 10/1 so we're looking for something in single figures. Age wise its interesting to note that out of 33 4y-olds to have ran over the years only 1 has been succesful. So it's worth noting that out of the first 6 in the RP betting f'cast [those under 10/1] only 2 are not 4y-olds. MISTRAL SKY + WHO'S WINNING are those two and last time out the met in a similar contest won by MISTRAL SKY with WHO'S WINNING only a Hd + Nk back in 3rd. The winner was getting 4lb from WHO'S WINNING that day but that has not deterred WHO'S WINNING taking him on again ,this time giving away 7lb. WHO'S WINNING gets the nod here as AGE , ODDS and the fact that the trainer is willing to take on a horse who beat him and is theoretically worse off with MISTRAL SKY are in his favour. LINGFIELD 3.30 - Just one thing to take into consideration here and thats G . MOORE'S record in this event . Since last year his record is - 3rd @ 50/1, 1st @ 7/1 , 1st @ 6/1 , 5th @ 11/2 [reported that the horse lost his action and RP noted it was probobly a better run than it looked on paper by the horse] , No entry , Tailed off , 1st @ 7/2

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