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About Kanga

  • Birthday 08/10/1966
  1. Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Thanks for the useful pointers, I notice you mention the Warwick university Detech predictor, I don't suppose you have any past data from this site, it would be useful to back test ?
  2. Re: LOGISTIC RATINGS. Do you have a fixed cut-off point for top sides in all leagues or have you found they vary. For example in the Premiership you may remove the top 4 teams in the SPL just the top 2, another way of doing this could be looking at past odds where you remove any results against teams at say
  3. Re: Regression Graphs Andy, Your table means very little in reality until you compare them against actual bookies odds, only that way can you see if your efforts have been profitable. I'd suggest checking the profitability of each of your ratings separately, and then in various combinations e.g where system 1 and 3 both pick the same outcome, this should give you 6 columns of interest.
  4. Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 330 bets, 172% return / corner stak how about a Spin Doctor ? :loon:rollin:loon ..... I'll get me coat !
  5. Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 327 bets, 170% return / corner sta If I can interject a little here with some ramblings .... I tend to think of Yield (or ROI) as basically an efficiency rating ..... I know it's a useful number for comparison .... but at the end of the day it's the profit that's the nice number to have. So on that basis could you not say after say 30 matches the spread bet account made XXX profit and the fixed odds made XXX return .... and try your best to correlate the amount risked ???
  6. Re: Total Bookings (Spread betting) Thanks, how did i miss them :$ I still need help cutting and pasting from an excel sheet into here neatly though.
  7. Re: Total Bookings (Spread betting) Hi Jens, Great work on this thread, I've done a bit of number crunching myself on the prem this weekend and the results are as follows :- Do you have your results to compare ? BTW ... how do you paste excel results here in neat columns. When i tried it was all over the place ? Kanga. conv_1377.xls
  8. Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Whichever selection method you choose your looking for your strike rate % to be better than the average odds % calculates to be. Generally speaking, if you follow the crowd you'll end up in Tesco's .... you need to be looking at angles where overly generous prices can be found.
  9. Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Well Put :clap ... and i speak as somebody who tries to find miss-prices. At the risk of trying to simplify such an interesting thread into a few words can i try and summarise this all by saying that ........ Finding the best price possible is as important as the selection method itself ..... and vice versa :lol It's my belief that you need both to be profitable.
  10. Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" BeXXs ... good luck with this you've put a lot of work and thought into this.:ok A quick question the odds indicated of 11.4 ? .... where is this taken from and what bets are you proposing ? Selling on spreads or possibly unders on betfair/bookies corners market ?
  11. Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Bexxs ... I totally agree with what you are saying, and I think we have been talking a little at cross purposes but it's a great debate :ok It's a can of worms, this efficiency vs profit debate .... some would rather fewer bets with a higher yield ... others would prefer the profit in the bank account with a larger number of bets but no so efficient. You can follow profitable systems where they both cross and still profit (as i was trying to show) ... if you were to then remove the "conflicting events" from each of the systems and tally up, I'm sure the overall difference would be negligible yet still profitable.
  12. Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Grex ... I wouldn't worry too much about Lawro picks ... there was a thread on here 2/3 years ago that laid all the Lawro picks on the same premise that he was rubbish it turns out he wasn't as bad as initially thought.
  13. Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Hi Grex, Slightly :loon I was trying to use a simple example to confirm that following separate systems even on the same match and even when they seem to totally conflict can still return a profit. Another example is where system 1 says back liverpool to win ... system 2 says back the draw in the same match ..... it maybe that both systems have highlighted that the away team is overated. K:ok
  14. Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Imagine you have 2 systems both profitable .... one is a back system one is a lay system .... system 1 says back Liverpool at 2.20 .... system 2 says lay Liverpool at 2.00. If both bets are matched on betfair (or wherever, but I chose betfair for the ease of a visual example) you will see that you have still made a profit even by following 2 totally independent and apparently contradicting systems. As long as whatever systems you are following have sound reasoning and make longterm gains, then you need to follow them even if they seem to conflict.
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