JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends YE GODS A WINNER :nana BANIMPIRE 1ST @ 5/2 [aoife alainn was a nr]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 2.30 FRI - YORKSHIRE CUP 15f Group 2 ----------------------------------------------- 14/15 had won at least 3 times in their career 15/15 had won at least at 12f 14/15 were 9/1 or under 14/15 were aged 4 - 7y-olds 14/15 were Southern trained 12/15 won at Listed level and above , 10 were in GROUP campany 14/15 had finished 1st -4th LTO 13/14 were rated 109 + 8/15 had ran that season ASKAR TAU [106] , BLUE BAJAN [100] , BUXTED [102] and FREE AGENT [106] are all rated below the 109 mark. NATIVE RULER has never won past 10f , he was only btn a nose LTO in the 12f Jockey Club Stakes but that was his first run for 20 months and i'm wary of the 'bounce' factor e.g horses that run well first time after a long break usually fail to follow it up next time . The remaining 4 have all won over at least 12f , have all won at least 3 times , are all aged between 4 and 7 , are all around 9/1 or under in the betting and are all Southern trained . While ELECTROLYSER has managed to win a Listed race , he has not managed to grab a Group win yet after 4 attempts last season . That Listed win could be described as 'suspect' as he 'made all' to [ something thats very hard to do at York , unless the grounds very soft] and in a time which was 9.5 secs above standard on officially G/F ground. The 3 left have all won at Group2 or 3 grade. At this stage CLOWANCE is still declared to run [ trainer stated that unless substantial rain he will not run] but there's not that amount of rain forecast and i'll be surprised if he takes his chance today , if he does i think that first time out over the 1m6f will stretch his limitations on [according to yesterdays times ] G/F ground. The same problem lies with Ex-French runner MANIGHAR , who has won 3 times on ground with Soft in the title and of his 2 wins on Good , one was a 2 horse race . One positive he has over the other 2 is his proven ability to stay 15f . DUNCAN has never ran beyond 12f but it could be that now he's a 6yo he will appreciate the extra distance ? He runs well first time out with a record of 2 , 1 , 2 in previous seasons . Those 2nds were a sh-hd defeat on his debut and a half length beating by Barshiba in a Listed race ran at Ascot. He has won on Good and G/F ground and has a G2 Longchamp win to his name , however what could be described as his best run was a 3l 2nd to HARBINGER in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes where he turned around that defeat by Barshiba [ 6l further back in 3rd] Stake 8pts DUNCAN @ 4/1 Stake 2pts MANIGHAR @ 5/1 as a saver

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

2.30 FRI - YORKSHIRE CUP 15f Group 2 ----------------------------------------------- 14/15 had won at least 3 times in their career 15/15 had won at least at 12f 14/15 were 9/1 or under 14/15 were aged 4 - 7y-olds 14/15 were Southern trained 12/15 won at Listed level and above , 10 were in GROUP campany 14/15 had finished 1st -4th LTO 13/14 were rated 109 + 8/15 had ran that season ASKAR TAU [106] , BLUE BAJAN [100] , BUXTED [102] and FREE AGENT [106] are all rated below the 109 mark. NATIVE RULER has never won past 10f , he was only btn a nose LTO in the 12f Jockey Club Stakes but that was his first run for 20 months and i'm wary of the 'bounce' factor e.g horses that run well first time after a long break usually fail to follow it up next time . The remaining 4 have all won over at least 12f , have all won at least 3 times , are all aged between 4 and 7 , are all around 9/1 or under in the betting and are all Southern trained . While ELECTROLYSER has managed to win a Listed race , he has not managed to grab a Group win yet after 4 attempts last season . That Listed win could be described as 'suspect' as he 'made all' to [ something thats very hard to do at York , unless the grounds very soft] and in a time which was 9.5 secs above standard on officially G/F ground. The 3 left have all won at Group2 or 3 grade. At this stage CLOWANCE is still declared to run [ trainer stated that unless substantial rain he will not run] but there's not that amount of rain forecast and i'll be surprised if he takes his chance today , if he does i think that first time out over the 1m6f will stretch his limitations on [according to yesterdays times ] G/F ground. The same problem lies with Ex-French runner MANIGHAR , who has won 3 times on ground with Soft in the title and of his 2 wins on Good , one was a 2 horse race . One positive he has over the other 2 is his proven ability to stay 15f . DUNCAN has never ran beyond 12f but it could be that now he's a 6yo he will appreciate the extra distance ? He runs well first time out with a record of 2 , 1 , 2 in previous seasons . Those 2nds were a sh-hd defeat on his debut and a half length beating by Barshiba in a Listed race ran at Ascot. He has won on Good and G/F ground and has a G2 Longchamp win to his name , however what could be described as his best run was a 3l 2nd to HARBINGER in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes where he turned around that defeat by Barshiba [ 6l further back in 3rd] Stake 8pts DUNCAN @ 4/1 Stake 2pts MANIGHAR @ 5/1 as a saver

1st - DUNCAN @ 11/4 :loon [CLOWANCE was , as expected , declared a non runner] Superb tactical ride from Wm Buick imo . Despite drifting in the market MANIGHAR ran well enough to consider next time imo.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends CURRAGH 3.10 - 6f - Group 3 Greenlands Stakes 3yo+ ---------------------------------------------------------- 13/13 rated 100+ 13/13 had won at least twice in it's career 12/13 were distance winners 11/13 had ran that season , with 6 finishing 1st - 3rd LTO 10/13 had won at LISTED level and above 11/13 were 4y-old + [3yo's have represented around 30% of the runners but have only had 2 wins] 6/13 were trained in GB PARTNER and TELL THE WIND are rated below the 100 mark. ARCTIC has not ran this season , as well as having far better form on ground with a lot of give in it . The remaining six have all won at least twice and all have won over 6f. TIDDLIWINKS has never won above Cl2 grade and all 5 career wins have came on an All weather surface . SANTO PADRE is another who has failed to win a Listed or better race , he also would appear to be better over 5f rather than 6f as 3 of his 4 wins have been over the minimum. Of the 4 left both SNAEFELL [6 from 8 on Yielding - Heavy] and CROISULTAN [ 4 from 4 on Yielding - Heavy] would obviously prefer softer going , rain is forecast but i doubt it will be enough to change the G/F to Yielding [at least] That leaves SING SOFTLY from Aiden O'Briens yard , she ran BAREFOOT LADY to just under a length in the Nell Gwyn [G3] on G/F . That was over 7f [ her run before that was also over 7f ] and i am worried about the step back in trip to the 6f here. HITCHENS has won a Listed race and won 6 times over 6f of which 5 of those were on ground described as G/F - Firm and the other was on the AW. He was 4th in the Duke Of York Stakes [ TIDDLIWINKS was just in front in 3rd ] on level weights , so a bit to find there . Intersetingly F BERRY rode him at Dundalk in a 5f Listed race at the end of October last year and was only btn 3/4L. Summary - SING SOFTLY will probably start Fav being Ballydoyle's representative but the step back in trip is a worry and providing the isn't a major downpour i think HITCHENS looks a better bet at the odds . Significantly he is one of only 2 UK runners [ albeit from the Northern stable of D Barron] and these raiders have been well worth following in this over the years. Stake 10pts HITCHENS @ 5/1 with Boylesports , significantly Laddies are only offering 11/4 and Paddy Power 7/2. 3.30 HAYDOCK 6f - Listed Cecil Frail Stakes 3yo+ ----------------------------------------------------- 11/12 were rated 94+ 10/12 had ran that season , 7 finishing in the first 3. 11/12 were Southern /Irish trained 10/12 had won /been placed in at least Listed grade 6x 3yo's have won 6x 4yo's+ have won. AMITOLA , CAPERCALLIE , DUBAI MEDIA , HOT PURSUITS , MIDNIGHT MARTINI , NIMUE , POPPY SEED , SHOSHONI WIND and STRICTLY PINK are below the 94 rated mark . RUSSIAN SPIRIT and GOLDEN DESTINY are making their seasonal debuts and both have never won FTO. The remaining 5 are all Southern or Irish trained and all but TWEEDY have won or been placed in at least Listed company [ SHOW RAINBOW was 4th in a G3 but only btn just under 3L] ANEEDAH and ELSHABAKIYA have both never won over 6f and are now stepping back in trip , the former is usually ridden by Wm Buick [rides at GOODWOOD tomorrow] and the latter would appear to probably prefer further than the 6f on breeding [imo] Of the remaining 2 , ANNE OF KIEV has only won once on Turf [G/F] while winning 6 on the AW and the yard of J GASK has yet to find the winners enclosure after 18 Turf attempts this season. SHOW RAINBOW is another who has been taking on better opposition over further and would appear to need 7/8f on breeding [imo]. So what we have is a situation where i could be worthwhile taking a look at those lowwer rated runners , namely those Southern trained runners and it looks like we could a decent priced runner in the shape of CAPERCAILLIE [4yo] from the Clive Cox yard . Rated only 87 he was a close 3rd on his seasonal debut in a Listed Nottingham event [btn 2 1/2L] Has not won over 6f , twice a winner at 5f ] but was only btn a Head in a 6f race at Wolves . A former M Johnston inmate , she ran 4th in the Queen Mary [G2] at Royal Ascot and 4th in the G2 Cherry Hinton as a 2yo , so the potential is there and maybe the change of yard and that recent cobweb-blowing outing can bring about a return to the obvious potential form she once posessed. Paul Hanaghan takes the mount again tomorrow [ rode her in that Listed Notts race] Stake 10pts - CAPERCAILLIE @ 16/1 - Lads

[Gillers]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Hey JTW1, great thread. The last few months I'v taken a keen interest in trends so have enjoyed reading yours and Bowles trends thread. Do you mind me asking where you got your trends for the above races for example? Best of luck :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Hey JTW1, great thread. The last few months I'v taken a keen interest in trends so have enjoyed reading yours and Bowles trends thread. Do you mind me asking where you got your trends for the above races for example? Best of luck :ok

Mostly from previous post's over the years [ used to work out the trends from the info that the Racing Post gave out for free but now charge for] Nowdays i use the website racecaller.com for races i don't have previous info for , a great site and very informative just go to the upcoming races section and the stats are there .

[Gillers]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Mostly from previous post's over the years [ used to work out the trends from the info that the Racing Post gave out for free but now charge for] Nowdays i use the website racecaller.com for races i don't have previous info for , a great site and very informative just go to the upcoming races section and the stats are there .

:ok Thanks I looked at racecaller there earlier, when I didn't see the two races you did above in your post I was wondering where you got the trends from - obviously previous posts. Pity its not possible to get more trends for more races.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends HITCHENS 1st :dude Will update the profit/Loss after the next.

[Stevet1859]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Spot on :clap

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Of the remaining 2 , ANNE OF KIEV has only won once on Turf [G/F] while winning 6 on the AW and the yard of J GASK has yet to find the winners enclosure after 18 Turf attempts this season. SHOW RAINBOW is another who has been taking on better opposition over further and would appear to need 7/8f on breeding [imo]. So what we have is a situation where i could be worthwhile taking a look at those lowwer rated runners , namely those Southern trained runners and it looks like we could a decent priced runner in the shape of CAPERCAILLIE [4yo] from the Clive Cox yard .

Back down to earth with a serious bump !! Think i tried to be a bit of a smart-arse when discounting the 2 who were the selections by the way the trends were applied and going for CAPERCAILLIE . Of course that was unp while ANNE OF KIEV wins at 11/1 and SHOW RAINBOW is 3rd at 18's ........:wall:wall:wall:wall

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Back down to earth with a serious bump !! Think i tried to be a bit of a smart-arse when discounting the 2 who were the selections by the way the trends were applied and going for CAPERCAILLIE . Of course that was unp while ANNE OF KIEV wins at 11/1 and SHOW RAINBOW is 3rd at 18's ........:wall:wall:wall:wall

well done today and last week mate, i didnt do any trends today as dont have any races to look at from previous years, that Capercaile ran on well though to finish a closer 5th than it was during the race :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends An excellent night racing ahead at Sandown on Thursday evening , here's the past Trends i'll be looking at . Profit for this Flat season = 87.00pts :ok SANDOWN 7.10 - Group 2 16f - Henry II Stakes ----------------------------------------------- 15/15 were rated 106+ 15/15 had a top 3 placing in Listed/Group class 15/15 had won at least at 12f 13/15 had ran that season , with 10 running LTO in the Yorkshire Cup or the Sagaro Stakes. Only 1 Fav has won in the past 12 runnings , odds range from 1/2 to 20/1. SANDOWN 7.45 Brig Gerard Stakes 10f ------------------------------------------- 14/15 aged 4 - 6y-old [ 12 were 4 or 5 ] 14/15 were returned at 12/1 or Under 13/15 had ran that season with 9 finishing 1st or 2nd LTO . 12/13 have won at least 3 races 12/13 ran in at least LISTED company LTO 12/13 had won [ 8 ] or been placed at 10f [3] 10/12 with BHA rating were rated 107+ 10/13 have won at LISTED/G3 level or been placed at Grp 2+

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SANDOWN 7.10 - Group 2 16f - Henry II Stakes ----------------------------------------------- 15/15 were rated 106+ 15/15 had a top 3 placing in Listed/Group class 15/15 had won at least at 12f 13/15 had ran that season , with 10 running LTO in the Yorkshire Cup or the Sagaro Stakes. Only 1 Fav has won in the past 12 runnings , odds range from 1/2 to 20/1. AAIM TO PROSPER , MONTAFF and CAUCUS are below the 106 mark , i'll keep AKMAL as he is only 1lb below but while NEHAAM is also on that mark , this one has not seen a racecourse in 586 days. Also without a recent run is HOLBERG [also probable Fav] 3 left and of those BUXTED has never won beyond 12f and all 3 wins were on the AW and was 3l behind BLUE BAJAN LTO. The Mills stable have only had 1 winner from 21 runners on Turf this season. Of the 2 left , BLUE BAJAN ran LTO in the Yorkshire Cup and AKMAL's 2nd last run was in the Sagaro. BLUE BAJAN has , however , NEVER won a Stakes race on the flat from 11 attempts . AKMAL won this race last season and has the ground to suit , that victory added to his tally of a G3 and a Listed win to his name. He usually takes a few races to come to hand and i have to assume the the stable thought he was in need of that run lto over 14f at Newbury [last season won this after running in the Sagaro] Providing the rain doesn't come in any great amount i'm hoping Dunlop's runner can do the double . Stake 10pts AKMAL @ 9/2 SANDOWN 7.45 Brig Gerard Stakes 10f ------------------------------------------- 14/15 aged 4 - 6y-old [ 12 were 4 or 5 ] 14/15 were returned at 12/1 or Under 13/15 had ran that season with 9 finishing 1st or 2nd LTO . 12/13 have won at least 3 races 12/13 ran in at least LISTED company LTO 12/13 had won [ 8 ] or been placed at 10f [3] 10/12 with BHA rating were rated 107+ 10/13 have won at LISTED/G3 level or been placed at Grp 2+ All are aged between 4-6 yo , ALL are rated over 107 . WORK FORCE , CAVALRYMAN and JAN VERMEER are all making their seasonal debuts . Sir M Stoute has been quoted in the press as saying WORKFORCE 'will really need the run ' added to the quote that he's worried that G1 winners have to give 7lb to the rest . BLACK SPIRIT has never won above Cl2 grade. ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL has never won beyond 8f and [imo] his breeding suggests the 10f will not suit , esp up the Sandown hill. POET has never won on ground that doesn't have at least G/S in the description. That leaves 3 , AFSARE , DISTANT MEMORIES and SRI PUTRA . The 1st named has only had 5 career runs , winning the Hampton Court Stakes at the Royal meeting last season. Made his debut this season when 6th behind KINGS GAMBIT in the Gordon Richards Stakes over C/D. The Cumani stable has been in good form recently and K Fallon takes the ride again here . I think that last run probably brought him on a fair bit and has shown the distance and going are no drawback's. DISTANT MEMORIES would need a fair bit of rainfall for him to have a chance at this grade , 4 of his 5 wins have been on ground descibed as between G/S - HEAVY. His one win on Good was 9f event . SRI PUTRA has won over 10f and been 2nd at that distance in the G1 Eclipse here last season. Flopped badly in this race last year before his 2nd in the Eclipse . He was beaten last time out in a 3 runner Cl 3 when an odds-on Fav . He has only won once from 10 starts over 10-12f even though the majority of those were in G3-1 races. Summary - I'm taking on WORKFORCE here with AFSARE . If the ARC /DERBY winner is to be found out it's going to be here on his debut over a shorter than perfect distance and giving weight away . Stake 9pts AFSARE @ 8/1 Stake 1pts SRI PUTRA @ 16/1 [just in case !]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends AKMAL finishes last while POET runs WORKFORCE a close 2nd , which shows how much rain got into the ground. They changed the going dexcription to G/S after the 1st and looking at the divots thrown up by the runners and the times of the races that seemed to be a prudent move but too late for me and the selections unfortunately. HAYDOCK - 3.05 - Listed - 12f 3yo+ -------------------------------------------- 7/8 were 4y-olds 7/8 were returned in the top 3 in the betting [ other was 12/1 ] 6/8 were Southern trained [ other from Lincs ] 7/8 won or had been placed 2nd , 3rd in Listed / Group company. 4 were making their seasonal debuts 4 had ran that season and been placed LTO With the market being such a strong influence on the winners it seems prudent to me to ignore those currently in double figures in the betting. MYPLACELATER , NEVER FORGET , PINK SYMPHONY , PIPETTE and SIMMERING SURF are those high odds runners. Of the 4 left ALL are Southern trained , and ALL are either making their debuts or have ran and placed this season. CRYSTAL CAPELLA is a 6yo while VITA NOVA has yet to run in Listed/group company [ although after a 6l win in a Cl3 Handicap LTO ] the potential to win at least a Listed race is well within her remit imo ...just not here :hope That leaves us with FERDOOS and MEEZNAH . The former is similar to VITA NOVA in respect that she is a lightly raced filly [ 3 runs] who has been progressing with each run resulting in a 2nd placing in a 12f Listed race LTO . Should go close here. MEEZNAH has only won a 4 runner Maiden [by an impressive 9l] before running 2nd [subsequently disq] in the Oaks to Snow Fairy . She then ran 4th in the Irish Oaks [btn 9l] , 4th in the Yorkshire Oaks [6l] and then 3rd [2 1/2L] in the G2 Park Hill Stakes. She was unp in a G2 at Newmarket in October on G/S which was probably not her ideal going and she was possibly over the top by then . A lot depends on her fitness at this stage of the season but her runs last season suggest she will take all the beating [ won FTO last year] Stake 7pts NEEZNAH @ 7/1 Stake 3pts FERDOOS @ 7/2 Both Ladbrokes . HAYDOCK - 3.35 - 7f - Group 3 4y-old+ ------------------------------------------------- 11/11 were rated 106+ 13/14 were returned 5/1 or Under [top 3 in the betting] 13/14 had ran that season with 7 running at either York [Hambleton/Duke of York ] or the Lockinge . 11/14 were Southern trained The official ratings suggest that DONCASTER ROVER , INLER , KAKATOSI have something to find . Again those at the head of the market have a distinct advantage so take out HIMALAYA and SHAKESPEAREAN . REGAL PARADE is Northern trained . The 3 remaining have all ran this season , none in either the Lockinge or at York. Of those HIGH STANDING , although a winner over 7f back in 2008 has done nearly all of his winning over 6f [6/8 , the other was a 5f win] so , on paper he may well find the 7f a bit too much here , BUT , on further inspection his last 4 runs have been over 7f and the first of those was a 4L 3rd behind REGAL PARADE in a G1 in France followed by 3L 5th in a G2 at Doncaster's St Leger meeting and an end of season 6th [btn 4L] in a G2 at Newmarket. His seasonal debut when 5th in the Listed Leicestershire Stakes is best ignored as the hood that was placed on him was removed late when the stalls opened and he then dwelt eventually running a game 5th , the race was run in a very fast 1m 21.92s (fast by 1.08s) He wears blinkers for the first time here . I was going to suggest that THE CHEKA might need it softer than the forecast G/F but looking at tonights winning times all bar the 5f were run at least 3secs above standard , so G/F ?? i don't think so and with light rain forecast the going may well be to his liking . However he has never won above Cl3 grade and thats a major concern . That leaves BEACON LODGE who has won twice on the track , 4 times over 7f and twice in G3 company . He must have a great chance of following up his seasonal debut win just 21 days ago over C/D. Stake 6pts BEACON LODGE @ 9/2 [ PP] Stake 4pts HIGH STANDING @ 7/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends MEEZNAH - 3rd FERDOOS - 1st :loon With hind-sight i should have swopped the stakes around in this race , but nothing lost i suppose :\ BEACON LODGE - UNP HIGH STANDING - UNP Very unlucky with HIGH STANDING , just starting to make a move 2 and 1/2 furlongs out when the door was shut in his face not once but twice along with a coupls of good thumps for good measure . Will be keeping an eye out to see if he runs in the Wokingham next time . Frustrating that 'the other one' i had got the race down to won at 6's :cry

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends THE DERBY ---------- 10/10 were returned in the first 4 in the betting and thats the strongest stat for the main Classic of the season , aside from HIGH RISE [20/1] the vast majority were in the top 5 since 1988. 10/10 winners were by a sire who had a stamina index of 8.6f , of the top 5 in the market CARLTON HOUSE is by a sire who's index is only 8.0f. 10/10 finished in the 1st two LTO , NATIVE KHAN was 3rd in the Guineas . 9/10 had won a Group race , WORKFORCE was the exception but had a valid excuse for defeat in the Dante [ bit slipped through mouth] . SEVILLE has failed to win a Group race. That leaves POUR MOI and RECITAL . The record of France runners is poor with EMPERY their last winner back in '76 and this will be M BARZALONA's first Derby , despite his obvioe talent that has to be a negative . Which leaves RECITAL , winner of the DERRINSTOWN [2 winners from past 10 runners] and a G1 winner as the selection . His cause is helped by the booking of K FALLON [ 3 time winner] is a positive . I always tend to ignore O'Brien's Group runners FTO as they nearly always need the run and RECITAL proved the case when winning at Leopardstown after his 3rd FTO. After the Favs injury scare he is now 5/1 , which i think will become shorter on the day so i'd take those odds now [ already had a bet @ 7's] Stake 10pts @ 5/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 1.40 Epsom Group 3 8f 114yds Fillies + Mares 3yo+ ------------------------------------------------------------- 12/13 were 7/1 or under in the betting [ 6 clear favs ] 12/13 had won at LISTED class or above 11/13 were rated 102+ 10/13 had ran that season , with 6 from the last 7 of those winning . 9/13 were 4y-old+ CRYSTAL GAL , MOUNTAIN ROSE , SADDLERS BEND , SILVER GREY , SKYWAY , CLINICAL and NABAL are all below [ some WELL below ] the preferred 102+ rating mark . I'll allow FIRST CITY in as she's only 1lb below on 101 , however she has never won above Class2 and was btn over 5l by ANTARA in this last season. Simply put this should be a match between last years winner ANTARA and the Cecil trained TIMEPIECE. Will come back once the odds are known . THE OAKS ---------- 9/10 were returned at 10/1 or under.Similar to the DERBY in that it usually pays to stick to the top 4/5 in the market [5 favs ] There are 6 around 11/1 or shorter so far . 9/10 had a sires ave index of 8.6f+ , DANCING RAIN [8.1F] 10/10 had won over 8f+ , HAVANT hasn't and also she is a late foal , born May 3rd . 9/10 had ran 1 or 2 times this season , this will be WONDER OF WONDERS 4th outing of 2011. That leaves 3 and of those ZAIN AL BOLDAN won the Lingfield Trial lto but the 3rd ,4th and 7th in that have all been beaten . That leaves the 2 Guineas winners BLUE BUNTING and MISTY FOR ME .. Back later :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

1.40 Epsom Group 3 8f 114yds Fillies + Mares 3yo+ ------------------------------------------------------------- 12/13 were 7/1 or under in the betting [ 6 clear favs ] 12/13 had won at LISTED class or above 11/13 were rated 102+ 10/13 had ran that season , with 6 from the last 7 of those winning . 9/13 were 4y-old+ CRYSTAL GAL , MOUNTAIN ROSE , SADDLERS BEND , SILVER GREY , SKYWAY , CLINICAL and NABAL are all below [ some WELL below ] the preferred 102+ rating mark . I'll allow FIRST CITY in as she's only 1lb below on 101 , however she has never won above Class2 and was btn over 5l by ANTARA in this last season. Simply put this should be a match between last years winner ANTARA and the Cecil trained TIMEPIECE. Will come back once the odds are known .

The market agress this is a 2 horse race and i have to side with the probable Fav , ANTARA , who has won twice at G3 grade [inc this one] as well as placings in G1 and 2 company . TIMEPIECE has a fitness advantage over ANTARA but has only won at Listed grade . Although i'm always wary of first time out Bin Suroor runners, the fact that he won this on his debut last season clinches it for me . * At least thats what i thought before going onto the official Godolphin website and reading this quote fron Bin Suroor - "I am looking forward to seeing her get her season under way but she will improve for the run." Therefore the bet is changed to - Stake 10pts TIMEPIECE @ 2/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

THE OAKS ---------- 9/10 were returned at 10/1 or under.Similar to the DERBY in that it usually pays to stick to the top 4/5 in the market [5 favs ] There are 6 around 11/1 or shorter so far . 9/10 had a sires ave index of 8.6f+ , DANCING RAIN [8.1F] 10/10 had won over 8f+ , HAVANT hasn't and also she is a late foal , born May 3rd . 9/10 had ran 1 or 2 times this season , this will be WONDER OF WONDERS 4th outing of 2011. That leaves 3 and of those ZAIN AL BOLDAN won the Lingfield Trial lto but the 3rd ,4th and 7th in that have all been beaten . That leaves the 2 Guineas winners BLUE BUNTING and MISTY FOR ME .. Back later :ok

Impossible to separate so i'll split the stake. Stake 7.5pts BLUE BUNTING @ 9/4 Stake 2.5pts MISTY FOR ME @ 8/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Here's the Trends for the Royal meeting. Tuesday ROYAL ASCOT Queen Anne Stakes Grp 1 8f ----------------------------------------------------------- 15/15 were returned at 7/1 or under , 2 Favs 15/15 were aged 4 or 5 y-old. 14/15 had ran that season , but no more than twice. 14/15 had won at least 3 times in their career 11/12 with a BHA rating , were rated 115+ 10/15 had won at GRP 1 or 2 grade , since the race was upped from Grp 2 to Grp 1 in 2003 7 of the 8 winners had won at Grp 1 class. 1/14 fillies have won from 10 runners inc the great SOVIET SONG , however GOLDIKOVA broke that last season GODOLPHIN have won 7/15 . STOTE has won 3 AP O'BRIEN - 2 7/15 had ran [ but not won] in that seasons LOCKINGE STAKES , PACO BOY [2nd btn a nk last season had won the LOCKINGE] 3/15 had ran in the DUBAI DUTY FREE STAKES , but all 3 had a run after that before running here. 9/10 were drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls. Tuesday - KINGS STAND STAKES [c/o Racecaller ] --------------------------------- 9/10 had won a Group race. 9/10 had won over 6f. 9/10 had ran between 2-4 times that season There is a definite bias to being drawn high or low. Horses drawn in top 5 or bottom 5 stalls have a combined record of 6-13-90, compared horses drawn in the middle of 3-6-74. 8/10 were placed either 1st or 2nd LTO Record of horses trained outside of UK/IRE is 6 wins , 3 placed from 28 runners over the past 10 runnings. Wed - PRINCE of WALES STAKES Grp 1 10f [upgraded to Grp 1 in 2000] ------------------------------------------------- 10/10 returned at 8/1 or under , 3 Favs. 10/10 were distance winners 9/10 had won at Grp 1 level , BYWORD [last years winner] had been btn a half length in her sole G1 race. 10/10 were 4 or 5 y-olds 9/10 had ran that season with 6 finishing in the first 3. 9/10 ran outside the UK last time out 9/10 ran in Grp 1 class LTO 8/8 with a BHA rating were rated 117+ , 6 were 120+. Wed - ROYAL HUNT CUP [c/o Racecaller] ------------------------ 10/10 were rated 91+ , top weights have only managed a 3rd placing from 10 runnings 9/10 were 4 or 5 yo's , those aged 6 or over have a record of 1-7-87. 9/10 had won over 8f. 9/10 had won at Class 3 or better. 9/10 had won no more than 3 Handicaps. 9/10 had ran within 45 days. Lower draws have had much the better of it recently, with the last 8 winners at Ascot coming from stall 14 or lower. At least one horse drawn 1 to 5 (3-15-45) has made the places every year in the past decade and in past 5 years horses drawn 1 to 5 have a record of 3-9-25. Thursday - 3.45 Gold Cup 20f Grp 1 -------------------------- 13/15 were aged between 4 and 6 y-old 12/14 with a rating were rated 111+ 12/15 had ran either 1 or 2 races that season , 7 had won. 14/15 had won at least 4 races [inc NH] 12/15 started at 11/1 or under [ 3 Favs of which YEATS was 2 ] 12/15 had winning form at Grp 1 or 2 level 6/15 had ran in the HENRY II Stakes at Sandown , 2 had won it. 0/11 were Mares [ a 5th place from 7 runners under 20/1 is the best finish for this sex ] * RITE OF PASSAGE at 20/1 broke several Trends last year . Friday - CORONATION STAKES [c/o Racecaller] ------------------------------ 10/10 were foaled between Jan -mar. 10/10 had won at least one of their first two 2yo races. 10/10 had ran that season. 10/10 were returned at 8/1 or under , the past 6 Favs have won. 9/10 had been placed in the first 6 in either the English/Irish or French Guineas. 8/10 were sired by a Group 1 winner over 7-9f 7 of the last 9 winners at Ascot were drawn in top or bottom 3 stalls. Sat - Ascot Hardwicke Stakes 12f Grp 2 ------------------------------------------ 15/15 were 4, 5 or 6 y olds 12/12 with a rating were rated at 111 or above. 15/15 were returned at 12/1 or UNDER [ only 2/12 Fav ] 14/15 ran at Group level LTO with 8 in Group 1 company LTO 14/15 had ran that season , with 12 of them being placed in the first 3 on at least one occasion. 14/15 had won at Group 2 /3 grade 14/15 ran at Grp 1-3 level LTO 12/15 had won over 12/13f. 7/15 had ran in the Coronation Cup at the DERBY meeting LTO without winning it. WOKINGHAM STAKES ---------------------- 10/11 ran within 50 days. 9/11 were 4 or 5yo's , 6yo+ record is 1-11-112. 9/11 carried between 8:11 and 9:06. 9/11 had won at Class 2 or better . 9/11 had won no more than 2 Handicaps. The last 5 winners were drawn within 6 stalls of one of the rails. The only horse to win from the middle was Fayr Jag who dead-heated in 2003 and in retrospect he was probably well ahead of the handicapper that day considering he won listed and group 3 in his next 4 runs and won the group 1 Golden Jubilee over same C&D the following year. The Golden Jubilee at 3.45 (the race before) which is run over the same course and distance should also gives us clues as to the best draw. Last year only 1 stall separated where the 2 winners were drawn. 9/11 won or were placed LTO.

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Good luck for the week mate, i hope to get a few races done also:ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Tuesday ROYAL ASCOT Queen Anne Stakes Grp 1 8f ----------------------------------------------------------- 15/15 were returned at 7/1 or under , 2 Favs 15/15 were aged 4 or 5 y-old. 14/15 had ran that season , but no more than twice. 14/15 had won at least 3 times in their career 11/12 with a BHA rating , were rated 115+ 10/15 had won at GRP 1 or 2 grade , since the race was upped from Grp 2 to Grp 1 in 2003 7 of the 8 winners had won at Grp 1 class. 1/14 fillies have won from 10 runners inc the great SOVIET SONG , however GOLDIKOVA broke that last season GODOLPHIN have won 7/15 . STOTE has won 3 AP O'BRIEN - 2 7/15 had ran [ but not won] in that seasons LOCKINGE STAKES , PACO BOY [2nd btn a nk last season had won the LOCKINGE] 3/15 had ran in the DUBAI DUTY FREE STAKES , but all 3 had a run after that before running here. 9/10 were drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls. Sticking strictly to the Trends this should be between CANFORD CLIFFS and CAPE BLANCO and of those 2 i would have to have sided with CANFORD as the O'Brien runner is dropping back is distance to tackle probably the best 2 Older Milers in Europe . But it would be a foolish man that ignored a 13-time Group 1 winner just because she is one year over the limit , esp as she showed her well-being by winning a G1 just 2 weeks previously [ she won the same race last year before beating PACO BOY here ] Her pacemaker and CAPE BLANCO [imo] will ensure a fast pace therefore setting up both GOLDIKOVA and CANFORD CLIFFS to fight out the finish , the question is 1- will her 3lb allowance be too much for CANFORD to give and now that the rain has come at Ascot and it now looks like it could be Good to Soft ground rather than the G/F it was up until yesterday!! will that curb some of CC's finishing speed ?? 4 of his 6 wins have been on ground officially described as G/F and his win in the ST JAMES'S PALACE was run in a time 0.45 faster than standard , so the ground may well have been a bit faster than the recorded GOOD . The rain that has come has made me believe that CANFORD CLIFFS will be disadvantaged and together with the 3lb allowance he may just fail to catch GOLDIKOVA. STAKE 10pts GOLDIKOVA @ 13/8 Tuesday - KINGS STAND STAKES [c/o Racecaller ] --------------------------------- 9/10 had won a Group race. 9/10 had won over 6f. 9/10 had ran between 2-4 times that season There is a definite bias to being drawn high or low. Horses drawn in top 5 or bottom 5 stalls have a combined record of 6-13-90, compared horses drawn in the middle of 3-6-74. 8/10 were placed either 1st or 2nd LTO Record of horses trained outside of UK/IRE is 6 wins , 3 placed from 28 runners over the past 10 runnings. GROUP THERAPY , IVER BRIDGE LAD , MAR ADRENTO , PROHIBIT , STONE OF FOLCA and HOLIDAY FOR KITTEN have never won at Group level. All the remainder have won over 6f. ARTIC [0] , KINGSGATE NATIVE [1] , MONSIEURE CHEVALIER [1] , ASTROPHYSICAL JET [1] and SWISS DIVA [1] have ran less than twice this season. BRIDGETOWN [11] and SWEET SANETTE [10] have the trickiest draws , although the going may change that , but for the moment i will take out those 2. Looking further into the Trends posted by Racecaller i see that 5/10 had won a G1 while one had been 2nd in a G1 , the remaing 4 had not ran in a G1 before so - ROSE BLOSSOM has ran in 2 G1's and was unp in both . Since 1979 the oldest winner was 7 so i'm removing the 8yo WAR ARTIST from the equation. Of the remaining 5 , no less than 3 are trained outside the UK/IRE. The sole UK runner , TANGERINE TREES , has won a G3 but was btn in a G2 LTO . The USA runner HOLIDAY FOR KITTEN may well be at a disadvantage after the rain fell today as he has ran exclusively on Firm [Turf] / Fast [Dirt ] SOLE POWER is another for whom the easing of the going could be a problem , 2 wins on G/F and 2 wins on AW . That leaves 2 overseas runners , STAR WITNESS and OVERDOSE as the 2 with the best chance imo. STAKE 8pts STAR WITNESS @ 4/1 STAKE 2pts OVERDOSE @ 14/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Obviously i over-estimated how much the ground had been affected by the rain on Sunday , the first 3 races were run in times better than standard !!! GOLDIKOVA 2nd @ 5/4f - Once again i ignored the stats at my peril as CANFORD CLIFFS wins as cosily as GOLDIKOVA did last year. STAR WITNESS 2nd @ 6/1 and OVERDOSE 4th @ 12/1 , is it me or was the Aussie horse given a 'tender' ride ?? , is now 6/1 2nd Fav for the Golden Jubilee on Saturday having 'blown a few cobwebs away' quoted the trainer !! Profit after today = 27.50pts Wed - PRINCE of WALES STAKES Grp 1 10f [upgraded to Grp 1 in 2000] ------------------------------------------------- 10/10 returned at 8/1 or under , 3 Favs. 10/10 were distance winners 9/10 had won at Grp 1 level , BYWORD [last years winner] had been btn a half length in her sole G1 race. 10/10 were 4 or 5 y-olds 9/10 had ran that season with 6 finishing in the first 3. 9/10 ran outside the UK last time out 9/10 ran in Grp 1 class LTO 8/8 with a BHA rating were rated 117+ , 6 were 120+. The market is the best place to begin here so take out DEBUSSY [100/1] , JAN VERMEER [50/1] and SRI PUTRA [80/1] REWILDING has not won at 10f and has been campaigned over further in his last 6 runs , winning twice over 12f. TWICE OVER is now a 6yo . Although SO YOU THINKhasn't beaten much in his 2 runs over here the manner in which he did so was impressive . Add to the fact that he has won 6 G1's makes it understandable that he's 4/9 fav. PLANTEUR is the other runner left after the Trends are applied and his last win was a G1 in which the 2nd and 3rd have both won since [ G2 and G3 ] so that run gives him a chance esp as it was run in a time 2.71 secs faster than the standard. Stake 7.50pts PLANTEUR @ 4/1 Wed - ROYAL HUNT CUP [c/o Racecaller] ------------------------ 10/10 were rated 91+ , top weights have only managed a 3rd placing from 10 runnings 9/10 were 4 or 5 yo's , those aged 6 or over have a record of 1-7-87. 9/10 had won over 8f. 9/10 had won at Class 3 or better. 9/10 had won no more than 3 Handicaps. 9/10 had ran within 45 days. Lower draws have had much the better of it recently, with the last 8 winners at Ascot coming from stall 14 or lower. At least one horse drawn 1 to 5 (3-15-45) has made the places every year in the past decade and in past 5 years horses drawn 1 to 5 have a record of 3-9-25. Take out FAREER [Top-weight] and all those rated below 90 which is from PENDRAGON down to BRONXE PRINCE . The age stat removes PROPONENT , ALBAQAA and KAY GEE BE . Non previous 8f winners are STUNNING VIEW , MR DAVID and BRAE HILL . Those who have not won at Class 3 or better OR have won more than 3 Handicaps - DANCE AND DANCE , KYLLACHY STAR , INVINCIBLE SOUL , MONT ANGEL , PINTURA , CAPITAL ATTRACTION , JULIENAS and SOORAAH. INVISIBLE MAN [97] and GUNNER LINDLEY [53] have both ran well over the 45 day mark . * The stalls numbering has been reveresed at Ascot so contrary to the previous statement it's the TOP 14 numbers that usually have the advantage . Which takes out SUPER SAY [10] , START RIGHT [12] and BRICK RED [4] There was 3 left but GREEN DESTINY is now a non-runner . BREAKHEART has won over 8f but has changed stables since then and has been mainly running over 10f [future entries are all over 10/12f], will be running on the the end but i think we need a true miler and in ETON FOREVER i think we have one. A winner twice over 8f , last was the Spring Mile at Doncaster on Good ground , and once on the AW . Lightly raced for a 4yo , this will be only his 7th run , he was beaten over C/D LTO but that was a Listed race with only 8 runners . His 2 wins have been in 14 runner and 22 runners so it will be easier to cover him up tomorrow . The VARIAN yard have been in good form this season with N CALLAN having a 33% strike rate on the stables older runners. Stake 10pts ETON FOREVER @ 14/1 [bog] bet 365

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends No excuses toaday , PLANTEUR unp , ETON FOREVER 5th @ 14/1. Thursday - 3.45 Gold Cup 20f Grp 1 -------------------------- 13/15 were aged between 4 and 6 y-old 12/14 with a rating were rated 111+ 12/15 had ran either 1 or 2 races that season , 7 had won. 14/15 had won at least 4 races [inc NH] 12/15 started at 11/1 or under [ 3 Favs of which YEATS was 2 ] 12/15 had winning form at Grp 1 or 2 level 6/15 had ran in the HENRY II Stakes at Sandown , 2 had won it. 0/11 were Mares [ a 5th place from 7 runners under 20/1 is the best finish for this sex ] * RITE OF PASSAGE at 20/1 broke several Trends last year . Rated below the 111 mark - AAIM TO PROSPER , ASKAR TAU , GEORDIELAND , THE BETCHWORTH KID , FICTIONAL ACCOUNT and MOTRICE. Only DRUM TAPS in '93 [won in '92 ] and YEATS in 2008/9 have been aged over 6yo - Take out BLUE BAJAN [9] , KASBAH BLISS [9] and TASTAHIL [7] HOLBERG has never won above G3 . The remaining 5 have all ran this year , won at G1/2 Grade and won at least 4 races. 9/10 had won at 2m+ - DUNCAN [14F] , FAME AND GLORY [14F] and MANIGHAR [15F] have not. That leaves me with 2 at juicy prices , OPINION POLL a G2 winner at York last season who may need a bit more give in the ground and the French-trained BRIGANTIN , a winner at G2 and 3 grade who won't mind the going at all . A FABRE can add this prize to his Derby win . The jockey has won 2 from 4 on this one . Preference is for the Frenchman but i'll have a small bet on the other just in case . Stake 8pts BRIGANTIN @ 20/1 Stake 2pts OPINION POLL @ 25/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Thursday - 3.45 Gold Cup 20f Grp 1 -------------------------- 13/15 were aged between 4 and 6 y-old 12/14 with a rating were rated 111+ 12/15 had ran either 1 or 2 races that season , 7 had won. 14/15 had won at least 4 races [inc NH] 12/15 started at 11/1 or under [ 3 Favs of which YEATS was 2 ] 12/15 had winning form at Grp 1 or 2 level 6/15 had ran in the HENRY II Stakes at Sandown , 2 had won it. 0/11 were Mares [ a 5th place from 7 runners under 20/1 is the best finish for this sex ] * RITE OF PASSAGE at 20/1 broke several Trends last year . Rated below the 111 mark - AAIM TO PROSPER , ASKAR TAU , GEORDIELAND , THE BETCHWORTH KID , FICTIONAL ACCOUNT and MOTRICE. Only DRUM TAPS in '93 [won in '92 ] and YEATS in 2008/9 have been aged over 6yo - Take out BLUE BAJAN [9] , KASBAH BLISS [9] and TASTAHIL [7] HOLBERG has never won above G3 . The remaining 5 have all ran this year , won at G1/2 Grade and won at least 4 races. 9/10 had won at 2m+ - DUNCAN [14F] , FAME AND GLORY [14F] and MANIGHAR [15F] have not. That leaves me with 2 at juicy prices , OPINION POLL a G2 winner at York last season who may need a bit more give in the ground and the French-trained BRIGANTIN , a winner at G2 and 3 grade who won't mind the going at all . A FABRE can add this prize to his Derby win . The jockey has won 2 from 4 on this one . Preference is for the Frenchman but i'll have a small bet on the other just in case . Stake 8pts BRIGANTIN @ 20/1 Stake 2pts OPINION POLL @ 25/1

2nd and 3rd :wall Doh !! Friday - CORONATION STAKES [c/o Racecaller] ------------------------------ 10/10 were foaled between Jan -mar. 10/10 had won at least one of their first two 2yo races. 10/10 had ran that season. 10/10 were returned at 8/1 or under , the past 6 Favs have won. 9/10 had been placed in the first 6 in either the English/Irish or French Guineas. 8/10 were sired by a Group 1 winner over 7-9f 7 of the last 9 winners at Ascot were drawn in top or bottom 3 stalls. CLAIOMH SOLAIS , ELSHABAKIYA , JOVIALITY had either never ran or nor won either of their first 2 two year out outings. The American raider MORE THAN REAL has not ran since Nov '10. BAREFOOT LADY , CLINICAL and I LOVE ME are all double figures in the betting. IMMORTAL VERSE was foaled on May 1st , NOVA HAWK - Apr 10 , THEYSKENS THEORY May 6 and TOGETHER Apr 28 , so all fail on that stat. 2 left and those are MAQAASID , 3rd in the English Guineas and 8th [from a poor draw ] in the French version. J GOSDEN has had all his 6 runners that started under 10/1 placed in the first 3 [ 1 win , 5 placed] MEMORY started 2nd Fav for the Newmarket Guineas but virtually refused to race , finishing 18 of 18 . If we forgive that outing she has a decent chance and R HANNON has a record over the past 10 runnings of 1 win a nd 1 placed from 2 runners. STAKE 5pts MAQAASID @ 9/1 STAKE 5pts MEMORY @ 8/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends MAQAASID non runner MEMORY unp Last chance Saloon chaps :hope Sat - Ascot Hardwicke Stakes 12f Grp 2 ------------------------------------------ 15/15 were 4, 5 or 6 y olds 12/12 with a rating were rated at 111 or above. 15/15 were returned at 12/1 or UNDER [ only 2/12 Fav ] 14/15 ran at Group level LTO with 8 in Group 1 company LTO 14/15 had ran that season , with 12 of them being placed in the first 3 on at least one occasion. 14/15 had won at Group 2 /3 grade 14/15 ran at Grp 1-3 level LTO 12/15 had won over 12/13f. 7/15 had ran in the Coronation Cup at the DERBY meeting LTO without winning it. KINGS GAMBIT is a 7yo. ALL the rest are rated over 111. AWAIT THE DAWN and POET have never won past 10f. DRUNKEN SAILOR and PASSION FOR GOLD only ran at Listed grade LTO. LAAHEB has ran twice this season [inc once in Dubai ] but did not finish in the first 3. HARRIS TWEED has not won at Group grade. That leaves a pair of GODOLPHIN runners in the shape of CAMPANOLOGIST and CALVADOS BLUES . Both have form on G/S - Soft ground , the latter has shown improved form from last season [races mainly in Dubai] with a win and a 2nd place in Handicaps as well as a 2nd behind MONTEROSSO in a G2 and a 3rd behind REWILDING in a G1 LTO . Worry that he has not ran in 84 days and he has not shown he goes well fresh . CAMPANOLOGIST is a frustrating character but has 2 G1 wins in Germany as well as a G2 win over C/D at the '08 Royal Meeting. Despite his one win on Soft i'm not totally convinced it's his favoured surface but it's his track record that stands out - 0 , 1 , 2 , 2 . Stake 6pts CALVADOS BLUES @ 12/1 Stake 4pts CAMPANOLOGIST @ 16/1 both Ladbrokes. WOKINGHAM STAKES ---------------------- 10/11 ran within 50 days. 9/11 were 4 or 5yo's , 6yo+ record is 1-11-112. 9/11 carried between 8:11 and 9:06. 9/11 had won at Class 2 or better . 9/11 had won no more than 2 Handicaps. 9/11 won or were placed LTO. The last 5 winners were drawn within 6 stalls of one of the rails. The only horse to win from the middle was Fayr Jag who dead-heated in 2003 and in retrospect he was probably well ahead of the handicapper that day considering he won listed and group 3 in his next 4 runs and won the group 1 Golden Jubilee over same C&D the following year. The Golden Jubilee at 3.45 (the race before) which is run over the same course and distance should also gives us clues as to the best draw. Last year only 1 stall separated where the 2 winners were drawn. I think the obvious place to start is those drawn within 6 stalls of either side . GRAMERCY has not been out for 252 days and GLOBAL CITY for 107 . EVENS AND ODDS is a 7yo while BARNEY MCGREW is 8. BLUE JACK has won 8 times but ALL have been over 5f MASAMAH has won 3 Handicaps , another negative is that 5 of his 6 career wins have been over 5f while his only 6f was over Chester's tight track. ANNE OF KIEV has won 5 Handicaps. FASTHA has won 9 Handicaps. LOVE DELTA has won 5 Handicaps. SWISS CROSS has won 3 Handicaps. That leaves 2 high drawn runners in LUI REI from the PROHIBIT yard of R COWELL and Dandy Nicholls NASRI , of the 2 i'd expect NASRI to be able to handle the ground conditions better and his 3rd in the VICTORIA CUP over a furlong more at the course LTO was a decent run and he reatins the 3lb claimer who rode him that day. LUI REI was a Group winner in France and Italy in his 2yo days and has ran well without winning since coming to the UK . A hold-up horse this race race should be run to suit but ,as i have already stated , whether the give in the ground will suit is a doubt but at the odds i have to go for both . Stake 6pts NASRI @ 20/1 Stake 4pts LEI REI @ 20/1 both VC BET.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends OK , managed to turn profit to loss of 25pts ...:cry....time to grab the bull by the bollocks and get back to basics . NEWMARKET 3.20 7f Grp 3 3yo+ ----------------------------------- Winners have ranged from 2 Favs p to 2 16/1's and all prices in between. 12/12 had won at LISTED/GROUP level. 12/12 had won at least twice previously. 12/12 were Southern trained [ 7 Newmarket ] 11/12 had ran previously ran that season with 9 being placed 1st-4th at least once. 11/12 had won / been placed or beaten 2l or under in a Group race. 11/12 had won over 7f [ 7 more than once ] 11/11 were rated 107+. 10/10 ran at Listed /Group level LTO [other 2 were Cl 2 ] 8/12 were 4 or 5 y olds. Not unduly worried about the 3y-o's as only 7 have contested the race in the past 8 seasons with 1 win three 2nd's . 2 of those youger runners were unfancied at 16's and 25's , so , if fancied in the market ,they actually have a decent record . FIELD OF DREAM , INLER , KAKATOSI , PALACE MOON are all below the 107 mark [ PAUSANIAS is on 106 but being a 3yo having only his 6th career run i'll allow for improvement ] Also going are the 2 Northern raiders AWZAAN and REDFORD. LIBRANO is the only runner of those remaining not to have won over 7f but as he has NEVER run over 7f thats quite understandable ;) All 6 have also won at Listed/Group level. Of the 2 three year olds LIBRANNO , as pointed out above, has never ran over 7f and his 3 career wins have been over 6f . He was 2nd over a mile in the Craven but has disappointed since with only 4th and 3rd placing's in a couple of Listed races . Has an entry in the 6f July Cup so maybe sprinting is his forte ? Stablemate and stable jocKey's choice is PAUSANIAS , a winner 3 times over the 7f and at Listed Grade but 2 of those were on G/F and the other on the AW , although officially G/S i think the ground may dry out to become Good but will that suit him ? , i have to doubt it even taking into account the decent record of the younger generation in this. THE CHEKA beat BEACON LODGE , INLER ,KAKATOSI and SHAKESPERIAN in a G3 at Haydock LTO and now has to concede 5lb's to all 4. That was after a couple of 2nd's in G3's including a run behind to LOLLY FOR DOLLY who went on to take the G2 Windsor Castle at ASCOT. The ground shouldn't affect his performance and Fallon has ridden him several times [but not to a victory though] This is BEACON LODGE's distance and will have the ground better suited to him today rather than the G/F he encountered when 4l behind THE CHEKA . That and the 5lb he recieves should ensure he finishes closer this time . If this was run at Haydock or Newbury [ he has won twice at both] i'd be more confidant but thats only a slight concern . SHAKESPERIAN has been beaten a total of 76 lengths in his last 4 runs , stone last in the Haydock race btn just over 6l and can't see any real reason why he should turn the tables on any of the other 3 who finished in front of him in that race . Every chance on his 2 /3 yo form but not until he shows a bit more promise could i recommend him . A filly won this back in '07 with another back in 5th only btn a couple of lengths and thats been from very few runners indeed so i wouldn't knock FLAMBEAU's chances on that score. She has won twice over the 7f and at Listed grade . Second in a G3 lto to PERFECT TRIBUTE [who floundered on Soft ground next time ] she has never finished out of the first 3 in her 7 races after running 5th on her debut . Worryingly however the ground conditions for both those victories were on ground officially descibed as G/F. I believe the likely winner will come from either THE CHEKA or BEACON LODGE . Therefore it's 5pts on each at 13/2 and 6/1 respectively with bet365.

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Good analysis there JTW, i was most impressed by The Cheka LTO and will deffo be on it today to follow up

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Not unduly worried about the 3y-o's as only 7 have contested the race in the past 8 seasons with 1 win three 2nd's . 2 of those youger runners were unfancied at 16's and 25's , so , if fancied in the market ,they actually have a decent record .

Small consolation i managed to highlight what turned out to be a pretty strong positive , both 1st and 2nd were 3yo's and getting a very nice weight advantage from the older runners . *Note to self - keep this in mind for next year

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SANDOWN 2.00 5f Grp 3 G/F ------------------------------- 15/15 ran within 3 weeks of their last outing. 13/13 with a rating were rated 102+ 14/15 had ran a minimum of 2 races that season 14/15 were returned at 8/1 or under 13/15 ran at LISTED/GROUP class LTO 7/7 where there were double figure runners , that race was won by a horse drawn 8+ 4 x 3yo 11 x 4 - 6y olds *From 17 3yo runners that started 8/1 or under there have been 4 winners , 4 x 2nd places and a 3rd. BURNING THREAD [98] , HUMIDOR [93] , BEYOND DESIRE [92] are rated well below 102. BROOX has not ran for 62 days , TRIPLE ASPECT for 28. PASTORAL PLAYER has never won above Cl 2 grade and this will be his first attempt at 5f and is bottom rated of the remaining 5. Despite a winner at Sandown today , Sir M Stoute has been toiling to find a winning vein of form with his runners. With two G1 wins to his name he is undoubtedly the best horse in the race and he gives away at least 3lb for that pleasure. Nevertheless this G3 is quite a step down from where he has been running over the past couple of season's [won the last time he ran in a G3] The stable-form and fitting of a 1st time visor puts me off though. ASTROPHYSICAL JET has ran 13 of 15 and 10th of 19 this season [ not btn by a huge margin admitedly but still disappointing ] Giving away weight to a couple of closely/higher rated 3yo's who have winning form this season means he has little appeal. Those 2 three year olds are MARGOT DID and NIGHT CARNATION who met over C/D exactly 3 weeks ago where MARGOT beat NIGHT by 7l , but there could be a case made for a reversal of that result imo. The going that day was SOFT [as was her subsequent win at AYR ] and MARGOT was drawn in stall 1 of 9. NIGHT was drawn 9 of the 9 that day and has won all her 3 races on GOOD ground , so both the ground conditions and draw were against NIGHT CARNATION that day , imo. In Saturdays race MARGOT is drawn 10 of 10 while NIGHT CARNATION appears from stall 2. Another negative that day was the jockey who has won on NIGHT CARNATION 3 times [and a 3rd from 4 rides ] was not on-board that day but J FORTUNE takes over again for tomorrows race. STAKE 10pts NIGHT CARNATION @ 6/1.