JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Didn't discover DIAMOND HARRY was a nr until i watched the race on Sky+ and couldn't see his name in the betting :eek JN WINE.COM CHAMPION CHASE - Down Royal 3.20 -------------------------------------------------- 9/10 had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase or been placed in a Grade 1 9/10 were returned 7/1 or shorter 8/10 had won over 3m+ 6/10 were making their seasonal debut over jumps , the other 4 had ran in the Munster National LTO 5/10 were UK Trained COOLCASHIN and MIDNIGHT CHASE have never won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase SIZING EUROPE has never won beyond 20f while THE NIGHTINGALE's winning limit has been 21f. That leaves us with 3 to consider and with the winning times very much on the slow side i thought it could pay to stick with those with winning form on soft/heavy ..and of course all 3 enjoy the mud. BOSTONS ANGEL would appear to usually need a run or two to bring him into winning contention as does RARE BOB . So the selection falls onto QUITO DE LA ROQUE , 4 times a G1 and 2 winner on SOFT- HEAVY ground over 24-25f. Won when fresh and can see no reason to be worried about the track. Stake 10pts @ 3/1

1st @ 11/4 :loon

[Aidymac]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Lovely winner JTW! :clap

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers Aidy :ok >Paddy Power CHASE [Thanx to racecaller.com] ------------------------ Looking at the trends the most obvious stat is that no runner aged 11years or above has won since CLEAR CUT in 1975 . Indeed in the past 11 runnings there has been 19 older runners of which NONE have been placed . Clear Top Weights have a 11 year record of - 594504FPP65 As with the majority of these top Handicap race it usually pays to ignore those that start at longer than 20/1 . Cheltenham - 8/11 had previously WON at the course , while 8/11 had ran in a chase at that years Festival. 11/11 had won a Chase over 2m4f to 2m6f. 11/11 had won a Chase at Class 2 or better. 11/11 had RUN in 6 or less Handicap Chases. The Irish had a poor record in this until 2009 but that was run in a quagmire and their previous win had been back in 1980.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends >Paddy Power CHASE [Thanx to racecaller.com] ------------------------ Looking at the trends the most obvious stat is that no runner aged 11years or above has won since CLEAR CUT in 1975 . Indeed in the past 11 runnings there has been 19 older runners of which NONE have been placed . Clear Top Weights have a 11 year record of - 594504FPP65 As with the majority of these top Handicap race it usually pays to ignore those that start at longer than 20/1 . Cheltenham - 8/11 had previously WON at the course , while 8/11 had ran in a chase at that years Festival. 11/11 had won a Chase over 2m4f to 2m6f. 11/11 had won a Chase at Class 2 or better. 11/11 had RUN in 6 or less Handicap Chases. 11/11 were making their seasonal debut OR had ran only once finishing 1st or 2nd on all 5 occasions The Irish had a poor record in this until 2009 but that was run in a quagmire and their previous win had been back in 1980. Top-weight POQUELIN is first to be removed . Unless there is a market move in the next 48 hours i'd take out those on 33/1 or above - OISEAU DE NUIT , HOLMWOOD LEGEND , FINGER ON THE PULSE , CALGARY BAY , SWINCOMBE ROCK . DAVE'S DREAM has never won beyond 18f. FINE PARCHMENT , TULLAMORE DEW , AERIAL , QUANTATIVEASING have never won above Cl3 grade. The remaining 10 have ran in 6 or fewer Chases. The Irish raider LOOSEN MY LOAD and AIGLE D'OR have had 2 outings so far, which also applies to the Northern raider [only 1 winner since POUNENTES in '83] NOBLE ALAN . DIVERS has ran and been unp this season while THE GIANT BOLSTER was an 8l 4th on his debut . I've tried to give the benefit of the doubt to MON PERRAIN but the fact is no 5 yo has won and his sole UK win was over 25f while in France he won around 17/18f . That leaves 4 of which 3 have winning experience around Cheltenham , the other has yet to race at the course. WISHFUL THINKING GREAT ENDEVOUR ARALDUR BILLIE MAGERN Will wait and see how tomorrow's race times pan out before making a decision :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends WISHFUL THINKING GREAT ENDEVOUR ARALDUR BILLIE MAGERN Starting with WISHFUL THINKING who should have no problems at all with the Distance and is a Course winner over 2m5f. The Hobbs stable has been finding winners but at a not too spectacular 3 from 35 runners in the past 14 days . Despite looking at first glance that he has ran once this season , that outing was in fact back on may 6th , so as far as i'm concerned THIS is his seasonal re-appearance . Has only finished out of the first 2 on three occasions , 2 falls [one in contention] and a well btn 10th over Hurdles , from 13 runs in NH races . NEGATIVE - I'm very wary of his ability to handle , what appears to be Good ground . Todays winning times were , generally , 2-5 secs above standard . Light rain is forecast for the area tonight but tomorrow will be generally dry with temps around 15 degrees [ positively tropical for November !! ] . What concerns me is that his winns were mainly on G/S with winning times ranginh from 12.9 to 33 secs above standard . His one win that came under 6 secs above was a 5 runner event at Wincanton . Also his rise in the ratings from 148 [4 outings ago] to the present 164 is a hefty , but justified , hike. GREAT ENDEVOUR comes from the PIPE yard who only managed 3 winners today at the meeting !!! so needless to say they are running well :p This race was farmed by his old man from '96 until '05 when he trained no fewer than 7 winners from 10 runnings . He won the Byrne Plate Chase at the 2010 Festival over 2m5f and the winning time that day was only 1.90 above standard so he should handle the ground . He has won 4 times at 21f and once over 22f . NEGATIVE - He has never won first time out after a break of 60+ days from 4 attempts . He was a well beaten 6th last season in this but went on to be beaten only a length by POQUELIN over C/D 4 weeks later , re-enforcing the view he may well be better for the run. I'll start with a Negative for ARALDUR and thats the fact that the majority of his wins have been over 16-18f [and that 18f win was a 3 runner race ] His one win over further was in 21f Hurdles race at Kempton , a far sharper , flatter course than Cheltenham and while i'm not doubting his abilty to handle the track i think we'd all agree 21f over fences at here is a far greater test than 21f over hurdles at Kempton. That alone is enough for me to bypass A KING's runner . BILLIE MAGERN is a C/D winner and is trained by a man who has taken this in 2 of the last 3 season's . NEGATIVE - The going may be just a touch too slow for BILLIE , that C/D win was on Firm ground [run 4.5 secs below standard ] and this represents a pretty tall order for a horse more used to doing his winning between June and Sep [8/9 in that period] . Also running from 5lb's out of the Handicap . SUMMARY - Both ARALDUR and BILLIE MAGERN will be hard pressed to win this for the reason's given above . GREAT ENDEVOUR can't be totally ignored because of his apparent need of a run to bring him to his best after the stable's hat-trick today so a saver bet will be placed . WISHFUL THINKING gets the vote after reading these comments from trainer P HOBBS in the RP - TRAINER Philip Hobbs on Friday issued a positive bulletin on the eve of the Paddy Power Gold Cup as Wishfull Thinking bids to deny well-backed favourite Mon Parrain in the 2m4½f contest. Wishfull Thinking, who is as short as 14-1 for the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup next March, signed off last season with victories at Aintree and Punchestown and Hobbs has predicted more to come thisterm. "I'm hoping he's still improving and, if he is, he should be able to win a race off this mark," Hobbs said of the 13-2 second favourite. "I couldn't be more pleased with how he's done over the summer and I'd like to think he will be competitive." add this statement to his course record of - F [tumbled when going strongly 2 out] 2 , 1 , 2 , his remarkable record of finishing in the first 2 in 10 of his 13 outings , the fact that 7 of the last 10 winners ran at that years Festival [he ran in the Jewson Novice Chase ] and i'm prepared to put the ground concerns i have to one side ;). Stake 9pts @ 13/2 - WISHFUL THINKING Stake 1pt @ 12/1 - GREAT ENDEVOUR

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Great minds JTW, taking a risk i suppose by leaving out Wishful thinking but the weight puts me off the horse Good Luck mate

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Great minds JTW, taking a risk i suppose by leaving out Wishful thinking but the weight puts me off the horse Good Luck mate

Well we both had LITTLE JOSH @ 20's last year mate so :hope

[Stevet1859]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Great stuff :clap follows on from last year :notworthy

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Great minds JTW, taking a risk i suppose by leaving out Wishful thinking but the weight puts me off the horse Good Luck mate

2 years running, for both of us :clap

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

2 years running, for both of us :clap

Cheers mate , kicking myself for not splitting the stake 70/30 or 60/40 as i normally do ! Also still perplexed as to why the drastic change of tactics from WISHFUL THINKING's connections ?? ...from being held up ,tracking the leaders as is his normal method to trying to make all after 2 fences especially after a significant amount of rain overnight had probably eased the going in his favour ??? Prep for the Hennessy ?? or just a moment of madness from the jockey :\

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Wishfull Thinking's trainer Philip Hobbs said: "He has had a couple of breathing operations and he was very thick in his wind after the race. It could be that he needs a race or two before he is at his best." Thanks for the forewarning Phil :@

[DLL]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Cheers mate , kicking myself for not splitting the stake 70/30 or 60/40 as i normally do ! Also still perplexed as to why the drastic change of tactics from WISHFUL THINKING's connections ?? ...from being held up ,tracking the leaders as is his normal method to trying to make all after 2 fences especially after a significant amount of rain overnight had probably eased the going in his favour ??? Prep for the Hennessy ?? or just a moment of madness from the jockey :\

I don't think they changed his tactics, he's always ridden up with the pace and his last 2 wins at Aintree and Punchestown he led all the way to the line after the first couple of fences. It was always going to be difficult to carry that much weight in a handicap though, he's one of the best chasers around but he doesn't have much room to improve on his OR.

[DLL]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Wishfull Thinking's trainer Philip Hobbs said: "He has had a couple of breathing operations and he was very thick in his wind after the race. It could be that he needs a race or two before he is at his best." Thanks for the forewarning Phil :@

Yeah its disappointing when trainers do that, I never heard that mentioned once before the race. Plus I'm sure Tom Segal wouldn't have tipped him if it was known publicly.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Greatwood Hurdle ------------------- A race where up and coming younger runners hold sway with no winners aged 9+ and only 1 8yo since 1988 . 5 yo's have won 7/11 so a careful look at that generation is advised....esp as 10 of that vintage have filled the last 14 places in 4 season's Only 1 winner in the past runnings was rated 129 or below and significantly 4 top weights have won in the past 11 seasons , their record is 4-3-12 As usual anything over 20/1 has struggled to get into the winners enclosure. 11/11 had never won more than 2 Handicap Hurdles [ 8 had NEVER won a HH , indeed 6 of the last 7 had never Ran in a HH ] Since the race was upgraded to Grade 3 status ALL 7 winners had ran at Listed/graded level LTO. It usually pays to follow runners with a decent Cheltenham run to it's name and 5/10 had ran at the previous Festival Back later with the selection :ok

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends just too much weight i think JTW as others have mentioned

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

just too much weight i think JTW as others have mentioned

as well as not being fit-to-win as the trainer must have obviously known when making positive statements to the press ...............:\ Just ignore me mate i'm just raging at not having more on the winner ....as some did .....:loon :clap

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends interested in your thoughts on the gReatwood mate, doesnt look a great renewal and not too many Cheltenham horses in it Tried to make a case for Sanctuaire despite top weight, although it sulked last time out, it has quality

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Greatwood Hurdle ------------------- A race where up and coming younger runners hold sway with no winners aged 9+ and only 1 8yo since 1988 . 5 yo's have won 7/11 so a careful look at that generation is advised....esp as 10 of that vintage have filled the last 14 places in 4 season's Only 1 winner in the past runnings was rated 129 or below and significantly 4 top weights have won in the past 11 seasons , their record is 4-3-12 As usual anything over 20/1 has struggled to get into the winners enclosure. 11/11 had never won more than 2 Handicap Hurdles [ 8 had NEVER won a HH , indeed 6 of the last 7 had never Ran in a HH ] Since the race was upgraded to Grade 3 status ALL 7 winners had ran at Listed/graded level LTO. It usually pays to follow runners with a decent Cheltenham run to it's name and 5/10 had ran at the previous Festival Back later with the selection :ok

Taking out the sole 8 yo runner , those rated below 129 and over 25/2 in the betting leaves 10 to consider . When we remove those who failed to race at Listed/Graded level LTO we are down to 7. A MEDIA LUZ has won 3 races but they were two 3 runner races on the Flat and a 5 runner race at Huntingdon, has been well beaten on both Cheltenham starts. VIA GALILEI , according to racecaller.com 9 of the previous 10 winners had won at Cl2 or better and the exception had won a Group race on the Flat , and VIA GALILEI has achieved neither of those , winning a Cl3 is his best effort KUMBESHWAR - As above , but only won at Cl 4 , placed in several Graded races but doesn't seem to be able to get his head in front at top level and may well be better on truely Fast ground imo. THIRD INTENTION has won twice over Hurdles , both were on officially Good going [around 4-5 secs above standard ] so he might not find todays ground conditions to his liking [won on G/F on the Flat] Has been 1st , 2nd and a creditable 7th in the Triumph at the course . JACK COOL is one of only two 5yo's we have left BUT he has won no fewer than 4 Handicap Hurdles so loks well exposed and vulnerable to others. BRAMPOUR won the Listed handicap at Ascot last time , a race which featured many of todays runners , but that was on what would appear to have been very fast ground [11.30 secs faster than standard] , indeed his 3 career wins have all been on ground officially stated to be Good. Certainly will be fit , the jockey takes off a valuable 7lbs and Nicholls had a double here yesterday [race record is 1-2-7 in 10 seasons] SANCTUAIRE you have to forgive his last run at Ayr where [as Bowles states above] he clearly sulked . Other than that he has an excellent chance on the stats as a top weighted 5year old who has won at Grade 2 and 3 , won on Good and Soft ground , a winner here at the 2010 Festival and , most significantly for me , was starting to stay on when falling 2 out in this race last season. Ruby Walsh on board and Nicholls in form is a formidable combo when all the trends are taken on . Stake 8pts @ 14/1 SANCTUAIRE Stake 2pts @ 20/1 [bet365] THIRD INTENTION , will have come on for his run at Ascot and his course record is such that if the ground isn't too much against him he has a chance and 20's is way too big.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends BRAMPOUR was at least mentioned in despatches so a small moral victory there , unfortunately SANCTUAIRE + THIRD INTENTIONwere unp. 2,45 Ascot Hurdle ----------------- This event invariably falls to one of the top 3 in the betting , longest priced winner in the past 10 was returnf at 7/2 8/10 had won at Grade 1 0r 2 class , while the other 2 had been 2nd in a Grade 1. The last 5 winners have been rated 153+. Of those in the first 3 in the betting KING OF THE NIGHT has ran only once in a Graded race and was only 5th . So we're left with the Fav OSCAR WHISKY and 2nd Fav OVERTURN and i think Don McCain's runner could spring a small surprise and here's why - Officially there's only 1lb between them , however OVERTURN is recieving 8lb's from his rival here. 7 of OVERTURN's 9 career wins have been on Good [4] - G/F [3] ground whereas OSCAR has won 5 of 7 on G/S [2] , Soft [2] and once on Heavy . He did win in a fast time at Aintree on Good and that was over 20f but was guaranteed fully fit . N Henderson has admited that giving away weight to his rivals here is a concern . So what i'm hoping for is that the Good ground at Ascot [no rain forecast :hope] will give OVERTURN an advantage and that ,added to the 8lb's he recieve's from the Fav , gives him a decent chance albeit over 2/3f than he's previously tackled over Hurdles . Stake 10pts @ 11/4

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

BRAMPOUR was at least mentioned in despatches so a small moral victory there ' date= unfortunately SANCTUAIRE + THIRD INTENTIONwere unp. 2,45 Ascot Hurdle ----------------- This event invariably falls to one of the top 3 in the betting , longest priced winner in the past 10 was returnf at 7/2 8/10 had won at Grade 1 0r 2 class , while the other 2 had been 2nd in a Grade 1. The last 5 winners have been rated 153+. Of those in the first 3 in the betting KING OF THE NIGHT has ran only once in a Graded race and was only 5th . So we're left with the Fav OSCAR WHISKY and 2nd Fav OVERTURN and i think Don McCain's runner could spring a small surprise and here's why - Officially there's only 1lb between them , however OVERTURN is recieving 8lb's from his rival here. 7 of OVERTURN's 9 career wins have been on Good [4] - G/F [3] ground whereas OSCAR has won 5 of 7 on G/S [2] , Soft [2] and once on Heavy . He did win in a fast time at Aintree on Good and that was over 20f but was guaranteed fully fit . N Henderson has admited that giving away weight to his rivals here is a concern . So what i'm hoping for is that the Good ground at Ascot [no rain forecast :hope] will give OVERTURN an advantage and that ,added to the 8lb's he recieve's from the Fav , gives him a decent chance albeit over 2/3f than he's previously tackled over Hurdles . Stake 10pts @ 11/4

1st @ 5/2 :loon I'll not deny it certainly would have been close if OSCAR had jumped the last but at least horse and jockey appear unhurt and my wallet is fatter :beer

[Aidymac]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Good man yourself JTW :clap In my opinion Oscar would have got on top in the final furlong but you have to jump them hurdles! Dont matter how you win buddy as long as it passes that line in first, and congrats :beer

[Stevet1859]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Nice one JTW :clap

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Quality mate :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends The HENNESSY --------------- The last 10yo+ winner was DIAMOND EDGE back in 1981. 6 and 7 year olds have the best record (combined 8-17-84) 10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher over fences 9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on last completed start 9 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+ 9 of 10 winners had run in 3 or fewer handicap chases 8 of 10 had won a Listed/graded Chase 5 of the last 6 were rated 150+ The FIGHTING FIFTH --------------------- 10/10 finished in the first 2 LTO 9/10 had won a Grade 1 or 2 Hurdle 8/10 were 5 or 6yo's , with 5 yo's winning 6 while only having representative's in 8 of the 10 runnings. 7/10 [inc last 5] were rated 150 + 7/10 finished in the first 5 in a Graded Hurdle at that season's Festival [the 3 exceptions had missed the Festival] 6/10 were Favs

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends The HENNESSY --------------- The last 10yo+ winner was DIAMOND EDGE back in 1981. 6 and 7 year olds have the best record (combined 8-17-84) 10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher over fences 9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on last completed start 9 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+ 9 of 10 winners had run in 3 or fewer handicap chases 8 of 10 had won a Listed/graded Chase 5 of the last 6 were rated 150+ QHILMAR , TULLAMORE DEW and WYMOTT have not won at Class 2 or better. BALTHAZAR KING , CARRUTHERS , GREAT ENDEVOUR , BLAZING BAILEY and NEPTUNE COLLONGE have all ran in more than 3 Handicap Chase's. AITEEN THIRTYTHREE , MUIRHEAD and THE GIANT BOLSTER have never won at 3m1f+. BILLIE MAGERN and SARANDO have never won at Liste/Graded level. FAIR ALONG is only rated 142 , is now a 9yo [on the down grade ] and was a well beaten 6th LTO. Although MICHEL LE BON is only rated 146 , he has not ran for 730 days so i'd give a bit of leeway there however , despite him being from he Nicholls yard his sole win in Graded company was a 4 runner affair where his nearest rival in the market departed the race early . He may be something special but too many doubts for me , esp as Walsh has chosen to ride another from the yard. That leaves 3 live candidates imo - PLANET OF SOUND would appear to be better over further in his old age after his win over 25f at Punchestown back in April '10. Before that his optimum seemed to be 17-19f. He really likes Newbury with 3 wins and a 2nd from 4 runs and the none-to-slow G/S ground will suit . However , even relatively lightly raced for a 9yo , he is getting a bit long in the tooth and [excluding DENMAN ] the highest weighted 9yo to win this in the past 20 years carried only 10.08 and this is a race which usually falls to an up and coming youngster rather than the regressive veteran. 2 runs last season were in G1's so no disgrace in a 3rd and 5th but vulnerable to others nowadays. BESHABAR has developed into an out and out stayer as his win in the Scottish National proved and the ground should hold no fears either . I thought PLANET OF SOUND was a lightly raced 9yo but this one surpasses him as he has only seen a racecourse 11 times so the age factor may not be such a negative in his case. He has 3 Grade 3 wins to his name [ 2 over hurdles ] so certainly has a touch of class about him. His running stlye should suit the race and he will be staying on as others fade in that long Newbury straight. One with a decent chance if fit enough [which he usually is] WAYWARD PRINCE is another who will be staying on at the business end . A dual Grade race winner who should be fine with the going [maybe prefer a bit more give ?] and a 4 time winner over 25f means conditions appear to suit. 7 is the ideal age and the yard is in good winning form right now . I am slightly concerned his jumping could be put to the test in what will be a true-run race but he fits all the stats . STAKE 6pts WAYWARD PRINCE @ 8/1 STAKE 4pts BESHABAR @ 14/1

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Good luck JTW, i could have stuck Beshabar in but his age just put me off a bit, its a proven stayer though Both on Wayward Prince so hopefully that one comes in

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends JTW, hd to check as you dismissed aiteenthirtythree on the 3m1f stat, it has won over 3m 1f so surely should be considered?

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

JTW' date=' hd to check as you dismissed aiteenthirtythree on the 3m1f stat, it has won over 3m 1f so surely should be considered?[/quote'] Ooops your quite correct mate :$ will go back and re-asess :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Circumstances dictated i was unable to quote further about yesterdays race . Worries about WAYWARD PRINCE's jumping were proved justified while BESHABAR ran a very good race and would seem one to follow in long distance Chases this season . TROYTOWN CHASE 2.20 Navan [stats supplied by racecaller ] ------------------------------ 10/10 were returned at 10/1 or under 10/10 had won over 2m6f+ 10/10 had won between 1-4 Chase's 10/10 had won no more than 1 HANDICAP Chase 9/10 carried 10.09 or less . 9/10 finished in the first 5 in their last completed Chase 8/10 had ran in no more than 4 Handicap Chases 8/10 had ran in a Graded Chase [ other 2 had ran in Graded Hurdle races] 7/10 had won at NAVAN The weight stat seems to be the obvious place to start so remove everything above SOME TARGET 10.13. QUADRILLON , KAKAGH , GROODY HILL , ASKMEROE , CROSS APPEAL , STONE MASTER and IMPERIAL SHABRA have yet to win past 2m4f. SOME TARGET , PADDY PUB , JACK THE BUS , PRINCE OF FIRE , LURGAN , WICKLOW LAD and CITY OF DORAL have all had much more than 4 runs over Chase's. That leaves AINAMA and LEGGY LAD , both over the 10/1 mark but both fit the other stats well. STAKE 6pts LEGGY LAD @ 15/1 Stake 4pts AINAMA @ 20/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends LEGGY LAD was backed into 8/1 just before the off so i assume he was fancied !! Hacked round at the back of the field , was sandwiched when making his initial move then came a cropper as he was starting to make his 2nd attempt. The Becher Chase ----------------- Looked at the stats [c/o racecaller] and basically there is no great Age /Weight/Ratings advantage . The only things i can see are - 10/10 had won over 2m4f+ [7 over 3m+] 8/10 had won a Class2 or better Chase . Not surprisingly 5/10 had already won over the National fences , 3 others were trained by P Nicholls whose entry this season has experience over the big ones . Taking out those who have not ran well here or won a Cl2+ or won over 3m+ leaves 8. Of those NICHE MARKET , SWING BILL and ALWAYS WAINING would need faster ground imo. WEST END ROCKER has failed to complete in his last 3 runs inc being brought down in the National . NICTO DE BEAUCHENE is rated 9lb's above his previous winning rating and has yet to face these fences . SHALIMAR FROMENTO is only a 5yo , even allowing for the fact he is a French bred this is a big ask for a young horse having only it's 7th run over fences. HELLO BUD won this last season with poor recent form to his name that time so the fact his last 3 runs have ended PP5. Only 3lbs higher today so despite his 13 years i can see him running a big race . RARE BOB has completed around here and unseated his rider at the 2nd last , both were in the John Smiths Chase at the National meeting . Noted that both those runs were on Good ground so i would expect an even better showing on his preferred SOFT today. STAKE 5PTS - RARE BOB @ 9/1 STAKE 5PTS - HELLO BUD @ 10/1