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RACING CHAT MONDAY 22ND JULY 2024


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Watchya                                                      7 20 Win/               1/40th  of a pt ew     16/1

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Just testing the updated form module this week .....720 winds 

Sixties chic. 277. 5.8

Bona firtuna  275 6.2

Watchya  258 14 

Tremblant. 258 18

Lahina bay  258 12 

I'm just testing the form side of things this week ....in this race the top two look way ahead so I'll try 2pt win both .....value wise the 3rd 4th 5th rated have Ew appeal with 5 places available 

Once the form formula has been finalised I'll run the two together to get the value bets 

Edited by richard-westwood
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1 hour ago, Trotter said:

I had a good win on Tremblant in the Cambridgeshire Hcap at Newmarket ....... 16/1 if memory serves

about 40 years ago

I've spent all my winnings now

You should have invested it and let compound interest do the rest. Albert Einstein said it was the 8th wonder of the world. £100 would now be worth £5,000.

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# Horse Odds Rating Val
1 Sixties Chic 7 114.09 69.00
2 Bona Fortuna 4.5 111.45 36.04
3 Tremblant 15 111.12 116.68
4 Supreme King 9.5 108.97 59.62
5 Watchya 15 107.37 77.36
6 Capote's Dream 9.5 105.90 39.18
7 Nogo's Dream 9 103.85 24.21
8 Lahina Bay 15 103.60 37.75
9 Kit Gabriel 23 102.40 38.53
10 Betties Bay 17 100.92 10.92
11 Grenham Bay 23 96.51  
12 Toussarok 81 92.72  
13 Sky Warrior 17 83.13  
14 Glamorous Express 41 83.02  
15 Ashwiyaa 34 74.96  

7:20 Windsor, Tremblant e/w at 16.3 (had to settle for 4 places, would've taken 14/1 to 5).

At least the template seems to be working!

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9.00 Bev - Cakewalk - 5/2 (Hills) - Just 3 runs, and now tries a handicap for the 1st time. Trainer Simon Crisford sends just this  1 runner to Beverley where he has a 38% strike rate ( 3 winners from 8 runners ) in the last 5 years. Not shown much yet but may find improvement in a handicap 1st time.

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# Horse Odds Rating Val Back
1 Sixties Chic 7 114.09 69.00 7.53
2 Bona Fortuna 4.5 111.45 36.04 8.19
3 Tremblant 15 111.12 116.68 8.87
4 Supreme King 9.5 108.97 59.62 9.76
5 Watchya 15 107.37 77.36 10.83
6 Capote's Dream 9.5 105.90 39.18 12.14
7 Nogo's Dream 9 103.85 24.21 13.88
8 Lahina Bay 15 103.60 37.75 15.93
9 Kit Gabriel 23 102.40 38.53 18.88
10 Betties Bay 17 100.92 10.92 23.27
11 Grenham Bay 23 96.51   32.03
12 Toussarok 81 92.72   50.43
13 Sky Warrior 17 83.13   111.10
14 Glamorous Express 41 83.02   111.10
15 Ashwiyaa 34 74.96   111.10

A first (fairly cackhanded) attempt to turn the ratings into odds. Four horses meet the back price criteria (fair plus 10% edge). Two are the selection and the clear next best value based on the ratings, 2 are a bit left field. Pricing up horse races is definitely one of those burrows I don't want to enter but this approach was rattling around my head so I've at least had a bash at it.

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2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

You are right but shares tend to beat inflation by about 8% so you would still be much better off in real terms

 

In recent decades perhaps, but now we need a more credible currency to re-invest the Tremblant bounties of yester-year due to the heavily de-based Sterling.

'Punt Coin' would hold it's value if Skittle & Rag continue to make a good fist of the gloryhunter section. 1.01 fractional reserve punting will catch the eye of central bankers throughout the globe and then the hot money will come flowing in for Punt Coin!!!

Who needs to be backed by gold anyway.

In terms of the technical challenges of launching our own crypto currency, I don't want anything to do with that, I'm not the how guy. I'll leave it with PL top brass. I'll do some schmoozing in the city, build relationships, ruffle some feathers, you get the picture.

Why I am taking the time to give you all this useful information? It's July, the football black hole is upon us, not even MLS has survived, just some weird all-star shite and domestic cup crap. I can't find any videos on youtube covering Brazil Serie A although I know Thiago Silva has joined Fluminense. Norway Eliteserien? It's too scary guys, I don't know what's going on there. For anyone reading this, I'm sorry, stay strong.

 

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19 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Watchya                                                      7 20 Win/               1/40th  of a pt ew     16/1

"Mindfulness's Post"     reminded me that iv'd had a  pony on Michellie Obama"  @33/1 to come with a late run 😀

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14 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

"Mindfulness's Post"     reminded me that iv'd had a  pony on Michellie Obama"  @33/1 to come with a late run 😀

I was only saying to my friend last night that I expect her to come forward even though she always said she wouldn't ...that's weird ...maybe tempting fate lol ...🤔

Edited by richard-westwood
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Bit late but I’ll treat it as a test run for ratings as there no value . I did this earlier . 

3.20 Cartmel 

City Derby 31 7/2 ( my odds 9/2)

Starlyte 26 5/1 ( my odds 11/2)

Dalileo 24 15/2 ( my odds 6/1) 

Dalileo is bordering value now , he wasn’t earlier but I’ll sit this one out 

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11 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Bit late but I’ll treat it as a test run for ratings as there no value . I did this earlier . 

3.20 Cartmel 

City Derby 31 7/2 ( my odds 9/2)

Starlyte 26 5/1 ( my odds 11/2)

Dalileo 24 15/2 ( my odds 6/1) 

Dalileo is bordering value now , he wasn’t earlier but I’ll sit this one out 

City Derby clear  on ratings and won very comfortably in the end. 

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I’ll put this up for interest no value again but see how it does . 
 

Ilikedwayurthinkin 28 5/4 ( my odds 9/2)

Cardamom Hill 27 7/2 ( my odds 5/1)

Wasdell Dundalk 24 7/1 ( my odds 6/1) 

Wasdell borderline value and one of those horses I’ve taken a shine to for some unknown reason but see how the race pans out.  Hoping to find some value in the 7.00 Beverley . 

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51 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

I’ll put this up for interest no value again but see how it does . 
 

Ilikedwayurthinkin 28 5/4 ( my odds 9/2)

Cardamom Hill 27 7/2 ( my odds 5/1)

Wasdell Dundalk 24 7/1 ( my odds 6/1) 

Wasdell borderline value and one of those horses I’ve taken a shine to for some unknown reason but see how the race pans out.  Hoping to find some value in the 7.00 Beverley . 

Top rated won again but you’d let him win at that price 

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