Racing chat-saturday 4th November

[richard-westwood]

Working long shifts the weekend so I'm trying to rate a few races while I can 

Sodexo gold cup Ascot 

Eldorado Allen. 9.0 10/1 

Flegmatic.  8.9 12/1 

Larry 8.5 

Mucho mas. 8.4 

I'll try 5pt Ew top 2 

[black rabbit]

Sir Psyco                                                 1 30 Asc/                    1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Bad                                                          3 45 Asc/                    1/40tt of a pt ew     12/1

Je Zous                                                    2 47 New/                  1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Harry's Halo                                           1 02 New/                  1/40th of a pt ew    20/1

 

 

 

 

 

P/L   + 173 pts

Edited November 4, 2023 by black rabbit
selections

[Tedthewolf]

BOG

I see the last of the bookies corals  are now only doing BOG on the morning of the races not the night before or sometimes earlier probably only a matter of time before BOG is scrapped all together.  I will really  miss the early pricing up I have to wait  till sat morn now! to do my bets!

[The Brigadier]

Wetherby 1.15

The first of five races covered by ITV is this 2M 3 1/2F class 3 handicap chase which has a very open look to it. It maybe worth chancing last year’s winner Ladronne who has had his wind tinkered with again since last seen. He has won first time out before so an absence of 176 days is not too much of a concern. Tjade Collier’s nine year old is two from five here and looks a value each way play in a race where the market will be very informative.

 

LADRONNE 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 1.30

Jonjo O’Neill’s Are U Wise To That looks the one to be with in this 2M 3F novices’ handicap chase. He looked ahead of his mark when winning at Warwick in good style 40 days ago (3rd won since) and a 7lb rise may not be enough to stop this six year old from following up with Ben Pauling’s bottom weight Jipcot another to consider.

 

ARE U WISE TO THAT 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365

 

Wetherby 1.50

Just seven have declared for this 2M mares only listed hurdle but its an intriguing contest with serious chances given to Luccia from the Henderson camp, Kateira from Dan Skelton’s camp and Jamie Snowden’s You Wear It Well who was a very smart mare last year culminating in victory at the Cheltenham Festival in the mare’s novice hurdle (Luccia 4L back in fourth). She’s the pick for me and can score here despite a 3lb penalty on ground that obviously suits well.

 

YOU WEAR IT WELL 1 point win 3/1 William Hill

 

Ascot 2.05

A competitive 2M 1F premier handicap chase has attracted nine runners and has an open look about it. One horse who may still be ahead of his handicap mark is Harry Fry’s Boothill who’s won three of his 7 starts over fences including when winning over course and distance last November in a handicap prior to some good efforts in graded novice chases including a win of a four runner Wayward Lad Novice’s Chase at Kempton last Christmas. A mark of 149, 9lb higher than his victory here a year ago, still looks workable and he can run a big race today.

 

BOOTHILL 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

Wetherby 2.25

The 3M bet365 Hurdle is a grade two race with six declared to run. Philip Hobbs and Johnson White have their string well forward with a 33% win rate at present and can take this with their smart staying hurdler Thyme Hill. He was novice chasing last season although he switched back to hurdles at Sandown on the season finale day in April when a creditable fourth of 5 to Knappers Hill (beaten 1 3/4L). He may have most to fear from Dashel Drasher who is officially rated a 4lb better hurdler than the selection.

 

THYME HILL 1 point win @ 2/1 bet365

 

Wetherby 3.00

A disappointing turnout of just four chasers line up for today’s feature race at the Yorkshire track, the Charlie Hall Chase. Ahoy Señor flopped in this race last season and may have to play second fiddle to his old rival Bravemansgame who will be very hard to beat. Paul Nicholls’s classy chaser has won first time out the last two seasons including this contest last year and although very soft ground may not be his ideal terrain his class should tell and can win this convincingly to tee himself up for another pop at the King George on Boxing Day which he ran away with last year.

 

BRAVEMANSGAME 3 points win @ 8/11 bet365

 

Ascot 3.15

Trainer Chris Gordon was saying some nice things about his five year old Our Champ following an emphatic victory at Cheltenham eight days ago and can follow up under trainer’s son Freddie who was on board last time despite a 11lb rise in the weights. Harry Fry’s Altobelli looks a threat on his seasonal/handicap re-appearance in a first time tongue tie.

 

OUR CHAMP 1 point win @ 7/2 BetVictor

 

Wetherby 3.30

An open looking 2M 3 1/2f handicap hurdle with an intriguing runner trained by Willie Mullins in Alvaniry who is making his handicap debut. He was an odds on flop last time at Newton Abbot and maybe worth opposing. Pam Sly’s Haafapiece appears to like this track with form figures here of 42313184 which includes the 2021 renewal and despite a 232 day absence can get involved in the finished. The chestnut failed to win last season dropping 11lb in the process which puts him on a dangerous mark and as he did win this two years ago following a similar absence off of a mark 6lb higher looks a value each way play under Alex Andrews.

 

HAAFAPIECE 1 point each way @ 10/1 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 3.45

An intriguing 3M premier handicap chase with the likely favourite Monbeg Genius standing out on his last run. That came at the Cheltenham Festival last March when third to Corach Rambler and Fastorslow in the Ultima Handicap Chase. That pair have gone on to win the Grand National and Punchestown Gold Cup respectively rising 13lb and 18lb. As long as Jonjo O’Neill’s seven year old is straight enough he looks sure to run a big race under trainer’s son Jonjo Junior.

 

MONBEG GENIUS 2 points win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

[White Feather]

Twinjets 16/1 bet 365 - 13:30 Ascot

Two For Gold  10/1 general - 15:45 Ascot

2 x singles - each way double

[richard-westwood]

430 chelm 

Positive impact. 8.2 8/1 

Legend of leros 8.0 14/1 

Urban sprawl.   7.6 

5pt Ew top 2 

[LEE-GRAYS]

I’m turning Japanese 🇯🇵🇯🇵

All e/w

Edited November 4, 2023 by LEE-GRAYS

[fd1972uk]

907 melton hr aldebaran demi 5/1

[Gary66]

4-0 Chelmsford conquest of power , mark usher has tweeted this morning that this horse has serious ew chances a good run last week where come from the back to take second, a piece of its two year old form was just over length behind once more for luck in decent Newbury nursery once more for luck is now rated 100 . The trainer says the step up in trip 5 to 6f should suit best of luck 

[Tedthewolf]

1 hour ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

I’m turning Japanese 🇯🇵🇯🇵

All e/w

 

[White Feather]

Five key stats to help you beat the bookies on Saturday

Ascot

Gavin Cromwell has been in flying form in the last fortnight, operating at a 33 per cent strike-rate including three winners at Cheltenham's Showcase meeting last weekend.

He saddles one runner on Saturday, with Yeah Man making the trip to Berkshire for the Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase (3.45).

AYR

Trainer William Young jnr and jockey Sean Quinlan have a formidable 60 per cent strike-rate when teaming up at Ayr in the last five seasons.

They come together with Darkest Day in the 2m handicap hurdle (2.53). The eight-year-old has won two of his last three starts, but must bounce back from a disappointing last of seven at Kelso last month.

Chelmsford

Jack Jones has a fine 35 per cent (7-20) strike-rate at the Essex track in his burgeoning training career and saddles one runner on its eight-race card.

The Newmarket handler, who is enjoying a career-best season with 20 winners, relies on Mitigator in the mile handicap (5.30). The seven-year-old races off top weight, but bounced back to form when second over course and distance last time.

Newmarket

Paul Mulrennan has the best form of all the jockeys riding on the Rowley Mile's finale card, with a 38 per cent (5-13) strike-rate there in the last five years.

He has four rides at track and partners the Archie Watson-trained Shardam in the Listed Montrose Fillies' Stakes (2.47). The daughter of Too Darn Hot impressed on her stable debut when victorious at Haydock in September.

Mulrennan also rides Geliceaux (11.52), Faro De San Juan (1.02) and Hieronymus (3.57).

Wetherby

aul Nicholls' form has started to become red-hot and he also has a brilliant record at Wetherby, where he is set to unleash his star chaser among two runners on the card.

The Dicheat trainer's strike-rate in the last fortnight is 31 per cent (10-32) as the jumps season gets into full swing, while he also has a 38 per cent (6-16) strike-rate at the Yorkshire track in the last five seasons.

King George VI Chase hero and Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up Bravemansgame is the red-hot favourite to win the bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (3.00) again. He was an easy three-and-a-half-length winner of the 3m Grade 2 last year.

Nicholls also saddles Red Risk in the Grade 2 bet365 Hurdle (2.25), but last season's Lanzarote Hurdle second must improve against the likes of Stayers' Hurdle runner-up Dashel Drasher and Thyme Hill.

[The Equaliser]

All a bit early today

Had a 2 pt stake on L15 All different to singles bets

11.20 Nm Oxford Comma 0.30 w at 12/1 and Dwynwen 0.10 ew at 100/1

11.52 Nm Fair Point 0.50 w at 4/1

12.27 Nm Telemark 0.30 w at 11/4 and  Son of Man 0.20 w at 8/1

1.02 Nm Albert Cee 0.25 w at 15/2 and Razeyna 0.25 w at 15/2

= 4 pts staked so far

Back with more soon

 

[Bang on]

A very busy day and a very early start to racing.

A)  -  12.55 Ascot - Immortal  6/4

         1.07  Ayr  - Thunder in Milan  11/4 (PP)

         1.42  Ayr  - Wakool  5/2

---------------------------------

B)  - 3.15 Ascot - Altobelli  7/2

        3.45 Ascot - Eldorado Allen  6/1 (b365)

-----------------------------------

More to come at Chelmsford later but getting these out there.

[Brahmin]

Some interest this afternoon before Breeders cup racing this evening to add to our winnings from last night 🤞 🐎 💷.........

weth 1.15     Mount Tempest  17/2 EW   ( Daily Nap)            Ladronne  14/1 EW     4th                       4 places

Ascot 1.30       Are u wise to that  10/3                Cruz control  4/1   

 

Our friend at HQ this afternoon, says Easterby brought soft ground 2yr old down south, so he backed it 🤞......WON by distance he said 6L+ easily 👍

 Ground is Heavy............opened 5/1 backed down to 4/1 ( probably his 'Ton' 💷 helped that )........anyway made my aft with £110 return .....

Newm  1.37       Bust a move  9/2   WON            Classy Boy  4/1     

 

Ayr 1.42          Glinger Flame  11/2  EW    WON           Son of the Somme 6/1 EW    3rd     

Ascot 2.05      Boothill  10/3  WON  7/2                    Saint Segal  6/1 EW   3rd    

 Newm  2.47     La Pasionaria  11/1 EW                Je Zoux   12/1 EW   2nd         

Ascot 3.45        Monbeg Genius  11/2                      Two for Gold  10/1 EW     2nd         

 

       3 WINS 🏆 🏆 🏆  and 5 places soooo will take very nice 3 figure profit from the afternoon forward to this evening for Breeders cup racing 🤞

Edited November 4, 2023 by Brahmin

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

All a bit early today

Had a 2 pt stake on L15 All different to singles bets

11.20 Nm Oxford Comma 0.30 w at 12/1 and Dwynwen 0.10 ew at 100/1

11.52 Nm Fair Point 0.50 w at 4/1

12.27 Nm Telemark 0.30 w at 11/4 and  Son of Man 0.20 w at 8/1

1.02 Nm Albert Cee 0.25 w at 15/2 and Razeyna 0.25 w at 15/2

= 4 pts staked so far

Back with more soon

 

2.35 points back on the first round

Had another 2 pt L15 and acca at Nm.  All bets below are different at Nm

2.10 Metal Merchant 0.25 w at 9/1, Raising Sand 0.25 w at 16/1

2.47 You Got Me 0.25 w at 6/1, Marama 0.25 w at 15/2

3.22 Madame Ambassador 0.25 w at 20/1, Claymore 0.25 w at 33/1

3.57 Hiromichi 0.25 w 13/2, Hierachy 0.25 w at 8/1

= 4 pts staked

 

 

 

[fd1972uk]

On 11/2/2023 at 4:16 PM, black rabbit said:

Sir Psyco                                                 1 30 Asc/                    1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Bad                                                          3 45 Asc/                    1/40tt of a pt ew     12/1

Je Zous                                                    2 47 New/                  1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Harry's Halo                                           1 02 New/                  1/40th of a pt ew    20/1

 

 

 

 

 

P/L   + 173 pts

Thanks mate, used my ladbrokes free bet on it, did do ew, 25/1 though. Well done.

[MCLARKE]

5yo selections

[black rabbit]

55 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Thanks mate, used my ladbrokes free bet on it, did do ew, 25/1 though. Well done.

cheers 😄     was really sweet on him and had another  " bullseye"  on it this morning    be lucky mate

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

2.35 points back on the first round

Had another 2 pt L15 and acca at Nm.  All bets below are different at Nm

2.10 Metal Merchant 0.25 w at 9/1, Raising Sand 0.25 w at 16/1

2.47 You Got Me 0.25 w at 6/1, Marama 0.25 w at 15/2

3.22 Madame Ambassador 0.25 w at 20/1, Claymore 0.25 w at 33/1

3.57 Hiromichi 0.25 w 13/2, Hierachy 0.25 w at 8/1

= 4 pts staked

 

 

 

On to Chelmsford

Another L15 and Acca for 2 points

3.25 You'vemetyourmatch  0.50 w at 10/1

4.00 Kitbag 0.50 w at 5/1

4.30 Positive Impact 0.50 w at 13/2

= 3.50 stakes

 

[fd1972uk]

Had used a lot of my coral doubles (already beat) with bravemansgame.

Got a double on Boothill and Our Champ.

[black rabbit]

On 11/2/2023 at 4:16 PM, black rabbit said:

Sir Psyco                                                 1 30 Asc/                    1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Bad                                                          3 45 Asc/                    1/40tt of a pt ew     12/1

Je Zous                                                    2 47 New/                  1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Harry's Halo                                           1 02 New/                  1/40th of a pt ew    20/1

 

 

 

 

 

P/L   + 173 pts

"Psycho" from the shower to collect  "bad"  and   "je zous"  for ew  "sheckels"   😄

[Bang on]

Disappointing start, here are the Chelmsford selections.

A) - 5.30 Chelm - Mitigator - 13/8 (b365)

       6.00 Chelm - Dame Sarra - 15/8

----------

B) - 4.00 Chelm - Conquest of Power - 6/1

[richard-westwood]

On 11/1/2023 at 10:07 AM, richard-westwood said:

Working long shifts the weekend so I'm trying to rate a few races while I can 

Sodexo gold cup Ascot 

Eldorado Allen. 9.0 10/1 

Flegmatic.  8.9 12/1 

Larry 8.5 

Mucho mas. 8.4 

I'll try 5pt Ew top 2 

Made a good go of it but welter weight on soft was just a touch too much ....eldorado 3rd 

[richard-westwood]

22 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

430 chelm 

Positive impact. 8.2 8/1 

Legend of leros 8.0 14/1 

Urban sprawl.   7.6 

5pt Ew top 2 

Positive impact does the business ....happy with that on a miserable looking day ...+34.00 on the day 🙂

[azzybear]

grey charger 5.00.

[azzybear]

mitigator 5.30 

[azzybear]

zozos 6.30 ew 

[azzybear]

warm heart 7.10 

[Bang on]

6 hours ago, Bang on said:

A very busy day and a very early start to racing.

A)  -  12.55 Ascot - Immortal  6/4

         1.07  Ayr  - Thunder in Milan  11/4 (PP)

         1.42  Ayr  - Wakool  5/2

---------------------------------

B)  - 3.15 Ascot - Altobelli  7/2

        3.45 Ascot - Eldorado Allen  6/1 (b365)

-----------------------------------

More to come at Chelmsford later but getting these out there.

Awful start with some placed but 0 winners.

[Bang on]

3 hours ago, Bang on said:

Disappointing start, here are the Chelmsford selections.

A) - 5.30 Chelm - Mitigator - 13/8 (b365)

       6.00 Chelm - Dame Sarra - 15/8

----------

B) - 4.00 Chelm - Conquest of Power - 6/1

Mitigator - lost

Dame Sarra - WON 5/2

---------

Conquest - lost

---------------

A) - Good start to November, with 3 winners from 7 selections giving a +5.5pts (BOG) return.

B) - AS bad a run as I have seen before with 0/6 for a -6pts loss.

***** There will be no selections tomorrow as I always take Sunday off to take a break.