Tennis Tips - September 11 - September 17

[CzechPunter]

✌️

[CzechPunter]

Aliaksandra Sasnovich (+1.5 sets) to beat Belinda Bencic at 2.00 with Bet365

We're back to the regular grind, and Sasnovich is one of those players that doesn't mind trying her luck at smaller tournaments. She's already made it past the qualifier rounds here, beating Lepchenko in straight sets, and I think it's safe to say that she'll be more motivated than Bencic, who has been quite suspect lately, dropping sets against players like Parks, Bucsa, and Zhu. With no match practice for her here, I think there's value in backing Sasnovich to grab a set at evens.

 

[Duffyduck74]

San Diego (WTA):

Navarro - Sasnovic @ 2.02 | 2/10 (Mr Green)

Alexandrova - Ostapenko @ 1,90 | 2/10 (Betway) 👍

Edited September 12, 2023 by Duffyduck74

[sterziyskii]

Guys do you think Kenin will win a set against Kudermetova at 1.55?

That's my last match and I'm wondering if I should cash out 3x my bet otherwise it will be 5x .Kudermetkva is not in form but it's a little risky bet I think

[CzechPunter]

Well, she didn't look all that bad in the US Open, but I don't trust her personally. The odds look fair to me.

Elise Mertens to beat Sloane Stephens at 1.76 with Unibet

Mertens has been way better than Stephens in recent times imo, and she will draw confidence from the fact that Gauff won the US Open, as she almost beat her there. You also know that she'll at last fight, while Stephens can be quite disinterested these days.

[Duffyduck74]

F...! When will I finally learn NOT to touch Ostapenko!!!!! 🙈

Edit: Ok. In the end she made it, but... 🤪

Edited September 12, 2023 by Duffyduck74

[sterziyskii]

Hadad Maia against Kostyuk at 1.60.

Bondar + Jaqueline Cristian over Mitu in the Bucharest challanger.

And Kopriva over Batalla at 1.33.

You can combine any of these I believe and go for the 4 bet parlay.

[sterziyskii]

Haddad did well. Little correction in my bet today

Bondar, Juvan and Kopriva at 2.15. I believe this one should be easy

[CzechPunter]

Caroline Garcia (+1.5 sets) to beat Danielle Collins at 1.58 with Unibet

I don't trust Garcia to be able to play well for a full match, but she was able to play in two superb bursts against Stephens, and I think that she'll be able to produce at least one tonight. Collins can have dips herself, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit for this one to go to a decider.

[sterziyskii]

About Potapova - Kenin. I think Potapova will win this one here at 1.75 as I watched the last 2 matches of Kenin and she is hitting fine but her movement on the court is not great. She has some minor injury in her leg I believe and her conditioning doesn't look so good. I personally think Potapova will put her on her back leg and will put pressure.

Edited September 14, 2023 by sterziyskii

[Swami]

Potapova @1.76 bf

Potapova not good vs. Parks, better vs. Jabeur, but still not at her peak… this is mostly a bet against Kenin, she played a perfect match vs. Kedermetova, but yesterday was a lot more erratic and not moving well, also, I think her weak serve will be attacked easily by Potapova, that plays much heavier balls than Volynets. If the Russian can limit the UEs I think she’ll take it

[sterziyskii]

15 xouble faults in 2 sets with 48% first serve. That was a joke

[Swami]

2 hours ago, sterziyskii said:

15 xouble faults in 2 sets with 48% first serve. That was a joke

And you have to add the uncountable unforced… I wonder how she managed to hold serve 3 times, to my disbelief she was even 3-1 up in the 2nd, then she made 3 df in the next game… and that was it.
I hoped Kenin would have to play Collins o the winner of Haddad Maia-Krejicikova, but nope, she is on the other side, and vs. Sakkari or Navarro everything can happen…

I don’t know what got Potapova today, she went postal just after 2 games and never recovered… she got also an MTO, and it looked like she had low blood pressure or something, but she was all nerves since the very beginning… relax girl, it’s just tennis 🤨

[Torque]

3 hours ago, sterziyskii said:

15 xouble faults in 2 sets with 48% first serve. That was a joke

Some of the service numbers I see - both WTA and ATP - almost defy belief when you consider these are professionals. An example is Jabeur, who whenever I look seems incapable of serving much better than 50% first serves and sometimes below that. 

The thing that really blows my mind is surely all players know that no first serve = massively increased chance of losing point. In any sport at the elite level, marginal gains really count and on that basis it's hard to understand how a player like Jabeur isn't doing something about her first serve percentage. Her chances of winning any match would significantly improve even if she was only able to get to 60%.

[Swami]

1 hour ago, Torque said:

Some of the service numbers I see - both WTA and ATP - almost defy belief when you consider these are professionals. An example is Jabeur, who whenever I look seems incapable of serving much better than 50% first serves and sometimes below that. 

The thing that really blows my mind is surely all players know that no first serve = massively increased chance of losing point. In any sport at the elite level, marginal gains really count and on that basis it's hard to understand how a player like Jabeur isn't doing something about her first serve percentage. Her chances of winning any match would significantly improve even if she was only able to get to 60%.

I agree, in modern tennis having a good percentage on serve is crucial, but, unless you are really tall, isn’t that easy, cause the movement itself requires a lot of coordination. Also, being the start of the point, is mentally challenging, and if you start missing a lot of serves you have to be super solid in your head to reverse the trend.

As for Jabeur, imo she is one of the most talented players around, even more than Iga or Sabalenka, but I have the feeling that she pretends to care about her job, while in reality she doesn’t much. All that whining about the lost Slam finals… it sounds kind of false to me. In any case, she needs a real coach asap, someone who can push her, force her to work on the aspects of her game that don’t work (serve and shot selection first). Someone who can have the upper hand, from “outside”, cause Jellali is clearly not able to address those issues, as she keeps making the same mistakes again and again.

[CzechPunter]

It's certainly baffling, and I agree with you @Swami on that Jabeur is one of the very most talented players around, she really can produce some astonishing shots and her touch is just incredible at times, something that Sabalenka, for example, can only dream of. But that's possibly the problem, as you say, she's never had to work that extremely hard to get where she is, and that can lead to some issues with her game that aren't easy to fix. In the finals against Vondrousova, who's also insanely talented, you just knew she was going to lose from one point, her body language changed and her intensity dropped.

[Smiles Tennis]

Bucharest - Noha Akugue to beat Errani - 2.12 on Betfair

Errani doesn't look interested half the time now and will need to be right on her game to stop the power coming from the other side of the net. With only one top 300 since mid July, I would make Noha Akugue the slight favourite here. 

 

[Smiles Tennis]

San Diego - Kenin to beat Navarro - 1.96 on Betfair

Even strapped up a determined Kenin should beat Navarro. Navarro has been on fire this week but is still prone to mental lapses and got bageled last match by Sakkari who is slumping big time. She'll need to be right on her game and Kenin to struggle with her injury more than she has this week to pull off the win here. 

Navarro lost her only WTA semi final without a fight and she was close in odds to this. I can see Kenin taking this.

 

[CzechPunter]

Miriam Bulgaru to beat Marina Bassols at 1.90 with Bet365

Both have been playing really well so far this week, but Bulgaru has had to face much tougher opponents than Bassols, and that practice/experience should help her here.  There's not a great deal between the two quality-wise, I'd say, but, on evidence from the last couple of days, I see no reason not to back Bulgaru here.

[matrixman]

Went to the sandgren/kypson match last night and wow was impressed by kyp..hes a local kid from durham nc and crowd was all pulling for him.Hes really good in the rallies vs tennys and trys alot of drop shots.Good control and decent serve..Should be able to handle rinky..but rinky will Have support as he is from UNC.I think kyp has the advantage with rallies and will stay away from net play as rinky is a superb dubs player as we all know..

[Swami]

Sharma @2.08 bf

Impressed by the level of tennis showed by Sharma in the tournament, beating top seeds 1, 5 and 3. I watched few games of every match and found her very solid, not only her game, but also mentally. Frankly, even if she loses the final, from what I’ve seen she deserves to be in the top 100 at least imo. Errani, with her exasperating tennis, can bring to the exhaustion any opponent, so it might not be easy, but I’m leaning toward Sharma here, not only because I dislike my fellow countrywoman (and I do🤨), but also because the Australian looked to me potentially a far superior player than Sara… H2H 1-0 Sharma in Bogotà 2019 (clay)

[Simeon Borisof]

You should be a brave man to bet against a woman who has an average % of 1st serve @ 87. 

[CzechPunter]

I was kinda a fan of Errani back in the day, but now her serves are just puffballs, she was honestly serving just sitters for Noha a couple of days ago, and Noha just errored or put them back at Errani to start a rally. If you'd have a top player there, it'd be easy, she would struggle to get games against the top players nowadays, unfortunately. On this level, though, she can still do some damage, but mainly not through her own good play, but through her opponents' bad play.

[Swami]

Be aware that the place where they play in Guadalajara is more than 1600 metres high… one might expect some physical issues for some players and of course the balls flying faster than usual. No surprise imo that the tournament has probably the worst main draw for a 1000 ever. But WTA knows better.

[Simeon Borisof]

Errani could barely walk in the 3rd set. Guess at 36 fatigue is an issue, except Djoko ofc haha

[Swami]

3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

I was kinda a fan of Errani back in the day, but now her serves are just puffballs, she was honestly serving just sitters for Noha a couple of days ago, and Noha just errored or put them back at Errani to start a rally. If you'd have a top player there, it'd be easy, she would struggle to get games against the top players nowadays, unfortunately. On this level, though, she can still do some damage, but mainly not through her own good play, but through her opponents' bad play.

I never liked her much, as other and younger Italian players - Cocciaretto or Trevisan - she is an overachiever, not a lot of talent, evident physical limits, just grit, perseverance and a bit of tactics. Schiavone, back in the day, had the same physical limits, but she was a great talent. Honestly, I’m flabbergasted Errani made an RG final and a USO semi in her career. Growing older she also took the habit of bullying umpires and sometimes even opponents. Luckily today Sharma had enough left in the tank to do God’s job and take her out.