US Open 2023

[MJT]

My plays today at the US Open

Acca @ 2.11 Pinnacle (NAP)
Zverev -1.5 Sets x Pegula Under 12.5 Games x Sabalenka -1.5 Sets x Samsonova

Wawrinka -4.5 Games vs Etcheverry @ 1.95 Pinnacle (NB)
Rubelv Over 20.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill
Murray vs Dimitrov Over 39.5 Games @ 1.96 Pinnacle
E Lys v L Bronzetti Over 8.5 Breaks of Serve @ 2.10 Bet365
Jarry vs Michelsen Over 40.5 Games @ 1.96 Pinnacle

Draper vs Hurkacz
Over 40.5 Games @ 1.88 Pinnacle
Over 12.5 Games 1st set @ 3.50 Bet365
Over 1.5 Tie Breaks @ 4.0 Skybet

Alexandrova vs Tsurenko
Alexandrova Over 4.5 Beaks of Serve @ 1.72 Bet365
Over 8.5 Breaks of Serve @ 2.10 Bet365
 

[four-leaf]

Linda Noskova to beat Ons Jabeur at 2.45 with Unibet

I can see an upset here. Partly because Ons isn't likely to defend every point earned and she is under pressure to keep delivering. Noskova doesn't have to same kind of pressure and can play freely and she also defeated Ons in Adelaide 9 months ago.

[CzechPunter]

Jakub Mensik (+7.5) to beat Taylor Fritz at 1.63 with Unibet

Fritz has been strolling through his matches so far, but I'm going to oppose him and back Mensik today. Johnson and Varillas were two very different opponents - one an aging force, the other one a clay court specialist that had a good draw luck in round one, facing the under-performing Kecmanovic. Mensik is the top young player on the scene at the moment, and he's serving out of his skin in this US Open, which could be enough to cover this line on its own, as Fritz isn't the best returner out there. The young Czech is free-rolling at this stage, he has absolutely nothing to lose and everything to win, while the crowd will expect perfection from Fritz. I don't see an upset happening, but I do believe that the American will finally be tested.

[Swami]

Wozniacki @ 1.88 bf

Unimpressed with Brady so far in the tournament… even in the first set vs. Linette, that she won 6-1, she struggled a lot on serve (check the stats). Woz is a better retourner than Linette, she looks fit, clearly she is confident, more experienced, I don’t see her losing this one… she might even be a dark horse in the tournament imo, causing trouble to more valued players

[MJT]

Paul vs Davidovich Fokina
Paul Over 4.5 Breaks of Serve @ 2.0 Bet365 (NAP)
Really like this play as I am expecting a fair number of breaks in this match given how both players play. I am expecting Paul to win but it has the potential to be close. 2 previous head to head matches both going to Paul this year. At the Aussie open he win in a 5 set epic. During that match Paul managed 7 breaks of serve. He then won 6-3 7-5 in Miami with 4 breaks. Even if Paul manages to win this in 3 sets I can still see him getting the 5 breaks. I also cannot see him not winning at least a set or 2 in this as he is the better player overall.

Ostapenko vs Pera
Pera Over 8.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365
Pera to win @ 4.50 William Hill
I backed Ostapenko last game & she blew a 6-3 5-2 lead just about winning 7-5 in the 3rd. As I mentioned in that write up there is always a risk with how erratic she plays. I feel Pera has a great shot in this. Ostapenko hit a massive 80 unforced errors in her last win. She regularly has moments in matches were she just completely loses control & gifts away games which was in full effect in the last round. Pera will be fully motivated & have the crowd right behind her in this. I was tempted by her to just win a set but the over 8.5 games would also cover the possible loss in 2 tight sets in case there is a 7-5 or 7-6 set scoreline. So I have opted for this instead at slightly lower odds. I will also have a small play on her to win outright.

Shelton vs Karatsev
Over 39.5 Games @ 1.89 Pinnacle
Both of these players are quite erratic with Karatsev in particular very unpredictable at the best of times. However, he does have a better return game than Shelton although Shelton does have the better out wide lefty serve. Either way I am expecting 4/5 sets in this one. Especially with the ups and downs likely from both players throughout the match. I do think Shelton may edge it but I worry that if the hard hitting of Karatsev is even slightly consistent he may over power him. Can also see a tie break in this which will help the over games.

Zhang vs Hijikata
Zhang Over 4.5 Breaks of Serve @ 2.0 Bet365
I do think Zhang will win this one but I do always worry about him as favourite. He is a great underdog bet but he is still a little too inconsistent to be fully confident on. I have instead opted for breaks of serve market again which is rare for me in men's tennis. Hijikata is not the best of servers despite how good his stats looked like match. That was a complete write off given Fucsovics was injured & put in so little effort. His previous match against Kotov saw him being broken 7 times despite him winning in 4 sets. Kotov has a similar power game to Zhang so I can see a similar scenario here with Hijikata struggling on serve. However, Zhang does also have moments where he goes completely off the boil with how he plays his brand of no nonsense hard hitting tennis. So there is every chance that Hijikata can get some breaks himself to keep some sets close & a better chance of Zhang hitting the overs. Just the 1 previous head to head which was earlier this year. Zhang won that 6-7 6-3 6-4. He managed to convert on 4/11 break points.

I may have another play or 2 in the later matches.
 

[CzechPunter]

Face-palm level of badness there.

Peyton Stearns to beat Katie Boulter at 1.73 with Bet365

Stearns looked good against Tauson, though that result shouldn't be overestimated due to Tauson falling away physically in set two. Still, Stearns was pumping herself up, she's beaten Boulter already in this season, and she's going to have the same or even better crowd support as against Tauson.

[MJT]

My plays from the US Open today:

Acca @ 2.11 Pinnacle (NAP)
Alcaraz -1.5 Sets x Medvedev -1.5 Sets x Sabalenka -1.5 Sets x Kasatkina +1.5 Sets
I would be shocked if Alcaraz or Medvedev dropped more than a set and both should really be winning in straights. Sabalenka has looked very good so far and meets a player she beat 6-0 6-2 at the same tournament last year. Not expecting such an easy win but should still win 2-0. Kasatkina faces Minnen who has done very well to get to this stage but Kasatkina is just simply the better overall player. I would be shocked if she does not win at least a set.

Daniil Medvedev 3-0 @ 1.80 William Hill (NB)
Baez has now won 12 matches in a row but this should be the end of the line. On clay he may have the chance of an upset but on a hard court Medvedev should win this one comfortably. Until recent weeks the results for Baez on hard courts were pretty grim reading. This year he has lost to Garin 7-6 6-3 in Miami, 6-1 6-2 to Fritz in Indian Wells, 6-4 6-4 6-4 to Kubler at the Aussie Open, 7-6 6-1 to Shelton & in 3 sets to Martinez. Overall Baez has won just 13/37 matches on hard courts & 7 of those have come in the last 2 weeks. He now faces a player who loves the surface and has an impressive 75% win record winning 252/335 matches on hard courts. At 1.80 there is just about enough value for me on this to make a play.

Samsonova vs Keys
Over 22 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle
Over 10.5 Games 1st set @ 3.70 Pinnacle
I'm expecting this to be a very close match. Wouldn't at all be surprised with a 7-5/7-6 set scoreline meaning this could be won in a straight sets win. However, I do feel there is every chance this goes long. They have played each other twice before with both going to 3 sets. The first of these on grass in 2021 went the way of Samsonova 7-6 2-6 7-6 & the most recent going the way of Keys 6-3 3-6 6-3 in 2022. Both players possess big serves & there is sure to be some heavy hitting & winners in this one. Weather is also getting hotter so that will help to speed up the balls and neither of these players are known for wanting long rallies.

Other plays today:
Carlos Alcaraz Under 18.5 Games @ 2.12 Unibet
Jarry vs De Minaur Over 38.5 Games @ 2.04 Pinnacle
 

[four-leaf]

@CzechPunter tagging along on Peyton 

[CzechPunter]

Jelena Ostapenko (+6.5) to beat Iga Swiatek at 1.80 with Bet365

So, Ostapenko has been struggling so far, while Swiatek seems to be as dominant as ever. And yet, +6.5, with Ostapenko leading the H2H record 3-0? And yes, that does include a reasonably recent 2022 win in Dubai, so it's not just about some old matches. Ostapenko has a playing style that can take anyone - even Swiatek - out of the comfort zone, and I think that this line should be covered most of the time.

[MJT]

Double @ 1.83 Pinnacle (NAP)
Fritz -1.5 sets vs Stricker x Tiafoe -1.5 Sets vs Hijikata

Hijikata Under 9.5 Aces vs Tiafoe @ 1.83 Bet365
Hijikata is not known as a big server & even if this goes to 4 sets I think he may struggle to hit this line. I do however think that Tiafoe wins either in straight or 3-1.

[CzechPunter]

Aryna Sabalenka (-1.5 sets) to beat Daria Kasatkina at 1.84 with Unibet

Sabalenka now doesn't have much pressure on herself anymore with Swiatek out already, and her playing style gives her a massive advantage over Kasatkina, as she can bash returns for winners without many difficulties. Kasatkina hasn't been at her best lately either, so I like the odds for the 2-0 scoreline here.

[sterziyskii]

5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Aryna Sabalenka (-1.5 sets) to beat Daria Kasatkina at 1.84 with Unibet

Sabalenka now doesn't have much pressure on herself anymore with Swiatek out already, and her playing style gives her a massive advantage over Kasatkina, as she can bash returns for winners without many difficulties. Kasatkina hasn't been at her best lately either, so I like the odds for the 2-0 scoreline here.

I'll probably go with Sabalenka like you, Medvedev and I'm wondering about a third match to add. What do you think about Zheng to win a set or Pegula? 

There are also 2 matches that look good on 1.30 odds in Austria Chall that look like a safety bet. Rodionov and Cobolli. Flavio Cobolli is 30/20 W/L this season playing against Sels who is 3/19 W/L this season. Rodionov should not have problems as well against Ejupovic but don't know how many of you need 1.30 odds.

 

 

Edited September 4, 2023 by sterziyskii

[Duffyduck74]

These are my picks for today:

Medvedev - De Minaur: > 35,5 Games @ 1.73 | 2/10 👎
Note: What a pitty, that the single sets were so clear (2:6, 6:4, 6:1, 6:2), b/c 3 more games would have done it...

Kombi {Alcaraz (-2,5) - Arnaldi
             Tiafoe - Shelton} @ 1,93 | 2/10

Cirstea - Muchova (-2,5 Games) @ 1,96 | 2/10

Edited September 5, 2023 by Duffyduck74

[Duffyduck74]

On 9/4/2023 at 1:47 PM, sterziyskii said:

Rodionov

Rodionov should be a save pick as part of a combination.

I just picked him myself in a single bet:
Ejupovic - Rodionov (-4,5 Games) @ 2.05 | 1/10 👎

Another interesting Match could be this pick:

Oberleitner - Miedler @ 1,98 | 1/10 👎

And: Sorry if this ist too OT as this thread is about the US Open. I just answered @sterziyskii, because I am from Austria... 😉 

Edited September 6, 2023 by Duffyduck74

[MJT]

A Sabalenka -1.5 Sets vs D Kasatkina @ 1.84 Unibet (NAP)
I fully agree with @CzechPunter. Expecting Sabalenka to completely over power Kasatkina in this one & should win comfortably. She leads the head to head 4-2 with the most recent win coming just a few weeks ago 6-3 6-3. Sabalenka has been hitting so well in this tournament so far & the power difference is huge. The serve of Kasatkina is likely to be punished regularly & her loopy groundstrokes will allow Sabalenka to dictate play. As long as she does not get drawn into crazy amounts of errors this should be a similar scoreline to the recent encounter.

Zverev vs Sinner Over 39.5 Games @ 1.95 Unibet (NB)
Expecting this to be a long & close battle that could easily go the full distance. On top of that every chance of a tie break so I have to side with the over games in this one as it should be winnable in 4 sets. I would be very surprised if either won in straight sets.

D Medvedev -4.5 Games vs A De Minaur @ 1.91 Pinnacle
I have backed Medvedev a number of times this tournament & I will stick with him again today. Medvedev is 4-2 in the head to head but has lost the last 2. One of these was just recently in Toronto. However, in that match Medvedev did lead a break in both sets. There are likely to be a lot of long baseline rallies but De Minaur lacks major weapons other than simply trying to outlast his opponent into errors. I trust Medvedev with his superior serve & more powerful game to come out on top over a best of 5 format.

Best of luck all

[Swami]

Vondrousova has been seen with ice on the left harm and crying a little after her win vs. Stearns, not a good sign heading into the match vs. Madison (which is planned the day after tomorrow, anyway) 

https://twitter.com/seba_bucur_jazz/status/1698760106446360970/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1698760106446360970&currentTweetUser=seba_bucur_jazz

[CzechPunter]

Jelena Ostapenko (+1.5 sets) to beat Cori Cauff at 1.77 with Unibet

Gauff certainly doesn't look unbeatable to me here, she's had her fair share of struggles, and she wasn't particularly clinical in the match against Wozniacki. Ostapenko managed to beat the American 2-0 in the Australian Open earlier this season, and I'm sure she can trouble her again here, she just has that match practice in her now to do so. Good odds for the set handicap imo.

[sterziyskii]

Guys imagine staying all night watching the matches because you though you did actually put a bet on them but in fact I have not pressed the button "Bet" at the end I guess. And I realised it when every match went in and missed ~5.00 odds... 

 

[sterziyskii]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Jelena Ostapenko (+1.5 sets) to beat Cori Cauff at 1.77 with Unibet

Gauff certainly doesn't look unbeatable to me here, she's had her fair share of struggles, and she wasn't particularly clinical in the match against Wozniacki. Ostapenko managed to beat the American 2-0 in the Australian Open earlier this season, and I'm sure she can trouble her again here, she just has that match practice in her now to do so. Good odds for the set handicap imo.

I'll go with her to win a set and over  on Zverev - Sinner

[MJT]

Gauff vs Ostapenko
Before the scheduling was up I thought that Ostapenko would have a great chance in this one but with them playing at 12 noon with the high heat today it certainly now favours Gauff. Ostapenko has struggled in heat in the past & I suspect the same will be the case today. With the sunny & humid conditions along with the crowd support I do feel all of this will get to Ostapenko & cause her to unload on errors including her serve. This is an area she often struggles with & so far she has hit 11, 11, 7 & 3 doubles at the US Open. 2 of those matches were at night & only one of them (Pera hit 7) was close to the time of today's match (not as hot as today). The weather will play a big impact in this for me & I can't imagine Ostapenko will will want to be in long rallies meaning she may well go for more on her 2nd serve. I can see another match where Ostapenko hit's close to or more than 10 double faults.
Ostapenko 7 or more Double Faults @ 1.91 Boylesports
Ostapenko 8+ Double Faults @ 3.0 Bet365

Tiafoe vs Shelton
Expecting this one to be a very serve orientated match. Both players are holding serve over 85% of the time on hard courts over the past 12 months so break opportunities may be at a premium in this one. Shelton has a huge serve which has clocked 149mph this week. So I like the chances of 1 or more tie breaks in this along with the likelihood of 4/5 sets. Shelton is not the best returner & as I do think this will involve close sets I like the aces line for Tiafoe. He has hit 15 in both of his last 2 matches & I like that to continue again. I would lean towards a Tiafoe victory given his experience at this level but Shelton has been playing & serving so well this tournament he may just be on a roll.
Over 39.5 Games @ 1.97 Pinnacle (NAP)
Tiafoe Over 12.5 Aces @ 1.83 Bet365 (NB)

Best of luck all

[Duffyduck74]

22 minutes ago, MJT said:

Over 39.5 Games @ 1.97 Pinnacle (NAP)
Tiafoe Over 12.5 Aces @ 1.83 Bet365 (NB)

Sorry that I ask, but english is not my 1st language, and so I don't know, what the abbrevations NAP and NB mean. Can you please help me with that? Thx a lot!

[MJT]

18 minutes ago, Duffyduck74 said:

Sorry that I ask, but english is not my 1st language, and so I don't know, what the abbrevations NAP and NB mean. Can you please help me with that? Thx a lot!

No problem at all @Duffyduck74. NAP basically means my favourite bet of the day and NB stands for Next Best.

[Torque]

Looks like you were right about the weather @MJT but Ostapenko is going to bust so quickly that the doubles bet won't have a chance. Still the thinking was sound and there is still time for it to turn around.

[sterziyskii]

She was so fookin poor lol 

[MJT]

Yeah I thought Ostapenko would struggle in the heat but not quite as much as that!

Only 38% 1st serves but only 2 doubles. Not helped by Ostapenko only serving 7 games because of how easily she was beat. I did look at the Gauff -3.5 but was put off by how well Ostapenko played against Swiatek and also thought the occasion may get to Gauff so decided to stay away and go with the doubles instead.

[sterziyskii]

Do you think that all the favourites will win their matches? 

Tiafoe, Muchova, Medvedev and Sabalenka 3.70 odds.

Definitely a risk but I think that Medvedev and Sabalenka should win their matches. Shelton is in one of the best forms that he has ever been but Tiafoe is the more experienced one here. Muchova in my opinion is the better player overall with a heavy baseline hits. I'm not really worried about Cirstea even tho she beat Rybakina. 

[Torque]

18 minutes ago, MJT said:

Yeah I thought Ostapenko would struggle in the heat but not quite as much as that!

Only 38% 1st serves but only 2 doubles. Not helped by Ostapenko only serving 7 games because of how easily she was beat. I did look at the Gauff -3.5 but was put off by how well Ostapenko played against Swiatek and also thought the occasion may get to Gauff so decided to stay away and go with the doubles instead.

That's a great example of recency bias. The only reason Ostapenko beat Swiatek was because she played a once-in-a-blue-moon match of very low unforced errors - she was always likely to revert to type sooner rather than later and probably sooner with an opponent like Gauff who makes very few unforced errors and keeps the ball in play which makes Ostapenko think she has to go for it to win points.

[CzechPunter]

Daniil Medvedev (-1.5 sets) to beat Andrey Rublev at 1.78 with Unibet

I'm looking forward to this match, and I think that Medvedev will be able to take it relatively cleanly more often than not. Draper started to look tired against Rublev near the end of the third set, while Medvedev had a tougher test against De Minaur and was able to improve his level to come through, and he's certainly been the better player of the two for quite some time now. The H2H is 6-2 in Medvedev's favour, 2-0 in Grand Slams (3-0 and 3-0).

[adastra]

5 hours ago, sterziyskii said:

Do you think that all the favourites will win their matches? 

Tiafoe, Muchova, Medvedev and Sabalenka 3.70 odds.

Definitely a risk but I think that Medvedev and Sabalenka should win their matches. Shelton is in one of the best forms that he has ever been but Tiafoe is the more experienced one here. Muchova in my opinion is the better player overall with a heavy baseline hits. I'm not really worried about Cirstea even tho she beat Rybakina. 

3.70 are terrible odds for this. Just by using the Betfair Exchange, multiplying all odds would lead to a value which is about 9 % higher (and there might be better odds available on specific bookmakers, sometimes). Let me explain... The individual available odds right now (I know that some of the lines might have change a little, but let's ignore this here) are: 1.44 (Tiafoe), 1.54 (Muchova), 1.43 (Medvedev), 1.30 (Sabalenka). For each value, due to the fee for winning bets, we need to apply the simple operation 1 + (odds - 1)* 0.98, leading to 1.431 * 1.529 * 1.421 * 1.294 = 4.025.

I've been doing this for years, being profitable over thousands of bets. Low single-digit percentages are a realistic average (per bet) return on investment, certainly not 10 % or more. Picking individual profitable bets is already hard enough. By betting on accumulators you guys are making sure to basically have no chance of being a winning player, even over medium samplesizes! Better try to pick individual valuebets which often can be found on exchanges (but also look for other bookmakers).  

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by adastra

[harry_rag]

9 hours ago, adastra said:

I've been doing this for years, being profitable over thousands of bets. Low single-digit percentages are a realistic average (per bet) return on investment, certainly not 10 % or more. Picking individual profitable bets is already hard enough. By betting on accumulators you guys are making sure to basically have no chance of being a winning player, even over medium samplesizes! Better try to pick individual valuebets which often can be found on exchanges (but also look for other bookmakers).  

 

I agree with the general thrust; this acca doesn’t look great at the quoted price and most punters would do better by trying to turn a profit backing singles most of the time. It may well be that one or more of these favs aren’t value at the best available odds and shouldn’t be backed as singles or in an acca.

But if you’re making a profit from singles and it aligns that you can get a value price on two or more players with the same bookie then there’s a strong argument for playing them in doubles or upwards as it will enhance your edge. You just have to accept the greater variance and longer losing runs that come at bigger odds.

By all means stick to singles only as a preferred disciplined approach but, if you’ve got a proven edge, you’d make more money in the long term by taking advantage of the occasional opportunity to combine value prices in doubles or upwards.

Oh, and double digit edges can be had in abundance if you look in the right places but, admittedly, not so much with fixed odds bookies or exchanges.