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Premier League Predictions > August 11th - 14th


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It is just one month until the opening weekend of the 2023/24 Premier League season but it's never too early to start throwing some early bet thoughts around. The big game that stands out is obviously Chelsea versus Liverpool but we're keen to hear any predictions you have for these first round of matches coming up! :ok

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  • 4 weeks later...
2 hours ago, Fader said:

Brentford have to be the value at 11/5 but they've looked bit suspect in pre-season. Perhaps Burnley on a handicap, this Friday? Didn't think Man City looked too bright against Arsenal. Friendly, or not.

I'll do a quick tot up of how a "blindly back all the underdogs" strategy would've faired over the first 3 weeks! Seem to remember some unexpected results last year while things settled down. That said, I'll be taking the evens "Epic Odds" that Hills are offering about City.

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1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

I'll do a quick tot up of how a "blindly back all the underdogs" strategy would've faired over the first 3 weeks! Seem to remember some unexpected results last year while things settled down. That said, I'll be taking the evens "Epic Odds" that Hills are offering about City.

Historically it takes about six rounds for results to settle down as I understand it. Which makes sense as the volatility in results is only relative to the odds and those odds are based mainly on the season before. After six rounds there's enough data from the current season to make accurate inferences about how each team is going to do in the current season.

Edited by Torque
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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I'll do a quick tot up of how a "blindly back all the underdogs" strategy would've faired over the first 3 weeks! Seem to remember some unexpected results last year while things settled down. That said, I'll be taking the evens "Epic Odds" that Hills are offering about City.

Yeah the evens is too big. I expect Burnley to do alright this season but I think they may end up too open in the first match. 

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Players stats are from the last season.

 

Burnley vs Manchester City

2023-08-11T21:00+02:00

 

Burnley

Doubtful: -

Out (injuries/other): Michael Obafemi (12/2 f)

Suspended: -

 

Manchester City

Doubtful: -

Out (injuries/other): -

Suspended: -

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more than 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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  • harry_rag changed the title to Premier league predictions > August 11th - 14th

Burnley vs Manchester City

After being dominant in the Championship last season, Burnley managed to secure an express return to the English top flight. The Clarets suffered only three defeats during the previous campaign, winning 101 points in the process. However, playing in the Premier League is a  much more challenging task. Burnley will try to stay in the elite division, and therefore, they've spent almost £70 million during the summer transfer window. They managed to sign Jordan Beyer from Borussia Monchengladbach permanently, while Zeki Amdouni will try to book another good season after scoring 22 goals in 52 appearances for Basel last season. However, the home side has a tough task in the season opener, but they will try to remain undefeated.

The Citizens managed to take over the top spot from Arsenal before the finish line last season and win another title. Pep Guardiola finally managed to win the Champions League trophy with Man City after beating Inter 1-0 in Istanbul. The Premier League champions want to repeat the same success this season, and they've already made moves on the market. Although Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez left the club, the Citizens signed a pair of Croatian internationals. Mateo Kovacic will strengthen the midfield, while Man City broke the transfer fee record after signing Josko Gvardiol. The visitors eye three points from this outing despite losing to Arsenal in the Community Shield after the penalty shootout.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

Burnley was pretty confident at the home ground last season, but facing the defending champions is the ultimate challenge. Manchester City shouldn't miss this chance to book a win, and they should celebrate by at least two goals.

Goals Market Prediction

Manchester City was pretty efficient in the pre-season, but their defense leaked four times in a row. We are going to back Burnley to score, as the odds on this market are quite tempting.

Manchester City AH -1.5 @ 1.93

BTTS Yes @ 2.05

Correct score 1:4 @ 19.00

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365 are best price about Haaland (4/5) and Alvarez (7/4). The bet builder for both to score pays 9/2. There might just be enough juice in that price for a maximum stake bet (if your maximum allowed stake is less than £6). :)

Bet landed in 7 out of 12 games they both started last season. I'm not suggesting it's an odds on shot tonight but the 29/10 offered by Hills might be closer to a fair price.

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5 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

365 are best price about Haaland (4/5) and Alvarez (7/4). The bet builder for both to score pays 9/2. There might just be enough juice in that price for a maximum stake bet (if your maximum allowed stake is less than £6). :)

Bet landed in 7 out of 12 games they both started last season. I'm not suggesting it's an odds on shot tonight but the 29/10 offered by Hills might be closer to a fair price.

Both drifted slightly with Uni so can be had at 5/1 with them (or just shy depending on whether you've got a boost to spare).

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I've had a "routine" sell of De Bruyne's assist minutes (26 to sell with SX; the aggregate time of all goals that he assists in this game). Some bets are best watched from behind the sofa and this bet (on Kev) is probably one of those but all I can say is that, generally, it's one of the most profitable bets going (based on my experience from well over 1000 bets). That said, I'm not crazy enough to sell Haaland's goal minutes at 44 as he's currently my one man blacklist for opposing. (Possibly to be joined by Kane at Bayern.)

So the wishlist is City win, the 2 front men to score but Kev to have a quite night!

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Newcastle United vs Aston Villa

Newcastle United enjoyed a tremendous campaign last season, finishing at high 4th place and securing a Champions League ticket. However, staying at these heights is harder than climbing to them, so the Magpies are set for another successful season. Eddie Howe's side was quite confident at St. James' Park last time out, losing only two times in 18 matches. The Magpies have spent more than £130 million on new signings this summer, among which Sandro Tonali is the most expensive one. On the other hand, Chris Wood moved to Nottm Forest, while Allan Saint-Maximin signed for the Saudi side Al Ahli. Newcastle United has been quite good during the pre-season, as they faced several strong rivals and didn't lose. Nevertheless, this is the first competitive game of the season, and the hosts want to kick off strongly.

Aston Villa made a huge transformation from a relegation-threatened team to the Europa Conference League quals spot. Unai Emery wants to continue with good results and secure another top-half finish for his side. The Villans managed to upgrade their squad by keeping last season's key players and adding a pair of good signings. The Spanish centre-back Pau Torres came from Villarreal, while Moussa Diaby made a move from Bayer Leverkusen in a £47.5 million deal. Interestingly, Aston Villa didn't lose in the pre-season as well, beating Lazio and Valencia in their two most recent games. Although this is a tough outing, the away side hopes to pick up points from the trip to Newcastle.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

It is going to be an exciting clash since both sides have been in good form during pre-season. However, Aston Villa hasn’t celebrated at St. James’ Park since 2005, and we believe Newcastle United will book a win in this clash.

Goals Market Prediction

Both teams have been quite productive lately, and we expect them to continue in the same fashion. Therefore, neither side should keep a clean sheet on Saturday evening.

Newcastle United to Win @ 1.78

BTTS Yes @ 1.73

Correct score 2:1 @ 8.40

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Sad to say, but I have backed Crystal Palace to win away at my team Sheffield United. We have sold Ndiaye and Berge ( not too bothered about Berge as he drifts in and out and lacks pace), but haven't secured a top striker as a replacement. Looks like the 'kids' will have to try and step up. It was never going to be easy with the owner ( a Saudi Prince 🤐) saying that our 'budget' was only £20M. So far we have collected more in from sales than we have spent. Don't think we will be steamrollered, but we need goals from somewhere, that is the problem. 

Crystal Palace WIN (the 11/8 has now gone but I was on very early).

BTTS - NO 3/4

Correct score  0 - 2  ( 9/1 )

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5 hours ago, Bang on said:

Sad to say, but I have backed Crystal Palace to win away at my team Sheffield United. We have sold Ndiaye and Berge ( not too bothered about Berge as he drifts in and out and lacks pace), but haven't secured a top striker as a replacement. Looks like the 'kids' will have to try and step up. It was never going to be easy with the owner ( a Saudi Prince 🤐) saying that our 'budget' was only £20M. So far we have collected more in from sales than we have spent. Don't think we will be steamrollered, but we need goals from somewhere, that is the problem. 

Crystal Palace WIN (the 11/8 has now gone but I was on very early).

BTTS - NO 3/4

Correct score  0 - 2  ( 9/1 )

Palace won 1-0

BTTS - won

Correct score - not quite

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Chelsea vs Liverpool

The last season was the one to forget for Chelsea. The Blues finished in a disappointing 12th place, and they'll miss the continental action this time. Chelsea has been quite active on the transfer market again, and Mauricio Pochettino will have many new faces in the squad. However, the Blues have had many departures this time, as Kai Haverz, Mason Mount, N'Golo Kanté, César Azpilicueta, Mateo Kovacic, Christian Pulisic, Kalidou Koulibaly, and Edouard Mendy left the club. On the other hand, Chelsea brought Robert Sánchez, Lesley Ugochukwu, Nicolas Jackson, Axel Disasi, and Christopher Nkunku while having on target a couple more players. The Bles want to return to the top four, but they need to put much better displays than the last time out.

Like their rivals, Liverpool also could not be satisfied with its campaign last season. The Reds finished 5th, four points behind Newcastle United. Therefore, Jurgen Klopp will lead his team in the Europa League this season and will try to book a Champions League ticket for the next campaign. Several Liverpool players headed to Saudi Arabia this summer, including Jordan Henderson, who lifted so many trophies as a captain lately. Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai are the new faces at Anfield, while Liverpool could break the British transfer fee record if they finalize the Moisés Caicedo deal. However, we'll see if this team is capable of challenging for the title this year. We might get the first glimpses after Sunday's clash.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

This game can easily go either way, and it will be interesting to see the capabilities of these two teams. Therefore, we see a draw as the most realistic outcome on Sunday evening.

Goals Market Prediction

Although their recent h2h clashes didn't produce many goals, we expect a different story this time. Liverpool was very efficient during the pre-season, but they've also conceded too many goals. That's why both teams should be capable of scoring at Stamford Bridge.

Draw @ 3.75

BTTS Yes @ 1.52

Correct score 2:2 @ 12.50

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  • StevieDay1983 changed the title to Premier League Predictions > August 11th - 14th

I've got a mate who is a Wolves fan and he's completely disillusioned with things there right now. He said the club is in a right state and he thinks they're in serious danger of being relegated. The fans are already angered at the appointment of Gary O'Neil but I think that's more frustration at them letting Julen Lopetegui go. Anyway, I'd be getting on Manchester United to win and to win well tonight. I'm torn between two bets...

Manchester United to Win to Nil @ 21/20 with BetVictor

Manchester United -2 @ 7/5 with BetUK

I'm also tempted by a cheek anytime scorer bet for Bruno Fernandes at 2/1 with William Hill.

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I don't usually price up goalscorer bets till the line ups are confirmed but 2/1 Fernandes and odds against about Rashford both look reasonable calls. I've doubled them to both score with the United win at 7.12 with Hills. I was surprised that they didn't score in the same game more often than was the case last season but there was a degree of one being in form while the other wasn't (goals wise at least). Against Wolves tonight that looks like a decent enough price,

Hills 3/1 boost for United to win to nil and Rashford to score may be slightly better than fair as well.

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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

He's at least 25/1 to score a header so I'd want a bigger price for something as specific as that! :lol 

Check the rules regarding which cheeks are included!

I didn't say which cheek! :lol @four-leaf knows the score. We're all aboard...

Watch Wolves scab a 1-0 win now! :loon

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